Earnings Labs

Kennametal Inc. (KMT)

Q4 2011 Earnings Call· Thu, Jul 28, 2011

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning, my name is Regina, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to Kennametal's Fourth Quarter and Fiscal Year 2011 Earnings Call. [Operator Instructions] I would now like to turn the call over to Ms. Quynh McGuire, director of Investor Relations.

Quynh McGuire

Analyst

Thank you, Regina. Welcome, everyone. Thank you for joining us to review Kennametal's Fourth Quarter and Fiscal Year 2011 Results. We issued our quarterly earnings press release earlier today. You may access this announcement via our website at www.kennametal.com. Consistent with our practice in prior quarterly conference calls, we've invited various members of the media to listen to this call. It's also being broadcast live on our website, and a recording of this call will be available on our site for replay through August 29, 2011. I'm Quynh McGuire, Director of Investor Relations for Kennametal. Joining me for our call today are Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer, Carlos Cardoso; Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Frank Simpkins; and Vice President Finance and Corporate Controller, Martha Bailey. Carlos and Frank will provide further explanation on the quarter's financial performance. After their remarks, we'll be happy to answer questions. At this time, I'd like to direct your attention to our forward-looking disclosure statement. The discussion we'll have today contains comments that may constitute forward-looking statements as defined under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Such forward-looking statements involve a number of assumptions, risks and uncertainties that could cause the company's actual results, performance or achievements to differ materially from those expressed in or implied by such forward-looking statements. Additional information regarding these risk factors and uncertainties is detailed in Kennametal's filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. In addition, Kennametal has provided the SEC with a Form 10-K, a copy of which is currently available on our website. This enables us to discuss non-GAAP financial measures during this call in accordance with SEC Regulation G. This 8-K presents GAAP financial measures that we believe are most directly comparable to those non-GAAP financial measures, and it provides a reconciliation of those measures as well. I will now turn the call over to Carlos.

Carlos Cardoso

Analyst · Cleveland Research

Thank you, Quynh. Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us today. I'm pleased to report that Kennametal again achieved strong results for the June quarter of fiscal 2011. During the quarter, we had organic sales growth of 24% year-over-year. This growth was realized on top of 39% organic growth in the prior year period. In addition, we achieved all-time records on an adjusted basis with operating margin of 17.5% and earnings per share of $1.11 for the June quarter, as well as return on invested capital of 14.8%. For fiscal year 2011, Kennametal has also delivered historical highs for operating margin, earnings and return on invested capital, even with sales that are lower than the prior peak. Incremental margin for the year was 39%. This validates our ability to capitalize on top line growth as well as the permanent nature of our streamlined cost structure to achieve higher levels of profitability. We are proud of these impressive results because they demonstrate the progress of Kennametal's transformation. The effectiveness of our initiatives, the ability of our global team to execute our strategies and above all, our capacity to deliver our promise of premier performance. During the quarter, Industrial production continued to show favorable trends in markets such as general engineering, transportation, earthworks and energy. Our order rates were strong, reflecting ongoing customer demand on a global basis with emerging markets continue to lead the growth. For the June quarter, Kennametal's Rest of the World market represented 27% of sales and grew 36% from prior year quarter. We continue to implement our WIDIA brand strategy. For fiscal year 2011, WIDIA Product stills increased 37% year-over-year, reflecting strong growth. As evidenced by our recently announced agreement with Fastenal to be the WIDIA's national distributor in North America, there will be additional opportunities…

Frank Simpkins

Analyst · Cleveland Research

Thank you, Carlos. I'll provide some comments on our performance for the June quarter, and then I'll move on to our fiscal '12 guidance for the next fiscal year. Some of my comments exclude special items, so please refer to the reconciliation schedules that we provided in our earnings release in the related Form 8-K. So let me start by summarizing the June quarter and in part, the year. So, Carlos, I'm pleased to report that for both the June quarter and the full fiscal year, we set records for operating income, earnings per share and return on invested capital. In the June quarter, we again delivered strong organic growth coming in at 24% versus tougher comparables last year. We also had stronger operating results and our capital structure continued to strengthen. Our restructuring programs have been successfully completed and have yielded higher benefits and lower cost to execute than previously anticipated. I also want to point out that for the full fiscal year, we achieved these records while encountering the implementation of a new enterprise structure July 1 of last year. We upgraded our ERP system on January 3. We dealt with higher raw materials and the effects of salary and benefit restorations, including higher incentive compensation. So a great year on many fronts. Now let me walk you through the key items in our income statement, starting with sales. Our sales for the quarter increased $155 million or 29% to $694 million. This compares to $539 million in the June quarter last year, and this was due to 24% organic growth or 6% favorable foreign currency impact and that was partially offset by the effects of fewer business days. Our sales growth was achieved despite stronger comparisons of double-digit organic growth of 39% in the prior year. And…

Carlos Cardoso

Analyst · Cleveland Research

Thank you, Frank. Going forward, we'll maintain our strong commitment to executing our strategies. We will further balance our served-in [ph] certain markets, business mix and geographic presence. We expect to continue generating strong cash flows and will remain disciplined regarding our capital allocation process. We'll keep driving our ongoing transformation to be an even more customer-focused enterprise and continue to deliver premier performance. As evidenced by the June quarter and fiscal year 2011 results, Kennametal continues to realize higher operating margins, earnings and return on invested capital. We achieved all-time record highs even with sales are even lower than prior peak levels. For fiscal year 2012, our guidance reflects expectations of continued global growth and our ability to outperform industrial production. Our fiscal 2011 EPS guidance in the range of $3.50 to $3.80 per share represents a 22% increase from fiscal 2011 adjusted EPS of $2.98 per share at the midpoint. In summary, our global team remains focused on achieving the next milestone target of 15% EBIT margin and 15% return on invested capital in fiscal year 2012, a year earlier than previously anticipated. Our long-term strategies remain consistent. We will advance even further along the path to premier by maximizing our strong financial position and deliver continued shareholder value. Thank you for your time and your interest in Kennametal. We will now take questions. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from the line of Adam Uhlman with Cleveland Research.

Adam Uhlman - Cleveland Research Company

Analyst · Cleveland Research

I was just wondering if we could talk about the infrastructure margins a little bit? It seems like the material cost have crept back up there. Can you maybe go through the dynamics of the quarter? And then also your outlook for material costs for fiscal '12?

Frank Simpkins

Analyst · Cleveland Research

Adam, I'll start. Yes, and I think you hit on it right there as we said on our prepared remarks. And raw materials continued to increase throughout the quarter. And I know you guys follow the APT trends. So they went up a little bit quicker than we had originally planned. Good news is it seems like they have somewhat taken a pause here for a while. So while the pricing was trying to catch up with the raw material cost, they rose a little bit faster than we had anticipated. But we should be able to get that back as we get into the new fiscal year. So our outlook is to get that nothing better than our guidance going forward into fiscal '12.

Adam Uhlman - Cleveland Research Company

Analyst · Cleveland Research

Okay, I got it. And then, Frank, on the guidance for the year, it looks like you're going to be better than even the 15% goal, if my math is correct, closer to 16%. And I just wanted to check to see if that's correct. And then secondly, if when we said expect some new long-term margin targets given that you have a loan 3 years a year early?

Frank Simpkins

Analyst · Cleveland Research

Again, Adam, I think directionally your math is correct. You're spot on, from that perspective given where we're at. And as far as the next milestone, we're not ready to talk about it yet. I think we need to deliver the goal of 15 by 15. As I said in New York, no later than '13 which we're going to do next year. Once we accomplish that, we'll revisit and set the next milestone after that.

Carlos Cardoso

Analyst · Cleveland Research

Yes, this is Carlos. This is subject, most likely, we're going to discuss at our September meeting.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Eli Lustgarten with Longbow Securities.

Eli Lustgarten - Longbow Research LLC

Analyst · Eli Lustgarten with Longbow Securities

A couple of quick questions. Just for clarification, corporate expense turned out to be $500,000 in the quarter again, I guess. Can you give us an idea what's going on? And what that number would look like for next year?

Frank Simpkins

Analyst · Eli Lustgarten with Longbow Securities

Yes, nothing unusual. And again we're trying to -- we will look at whether we had a little bit of a benefit last quarter that didn't come through this quarter. But we're winding down some of our initiatives from last year that's why it tailed down in the second half. And, Eli, I would tell you this next year, it will probably, if I had to take a stab at it, it will be about $10 million for the year. So roughly $2.5 million a quarter. If you look at it, so I would -- it's basically going to be flat.

Eli Lustgarten - Longbow Research LLC

Analyst · Eli Lustgarten with Longbow Securities

So your margins, I mean, start touching but you got much better expected margin industrially, you probably did somewhat disappointing margins in infrastructure, turned out both for the year about the same. Can we -- what would be a more normalized rate for industrial next year? I guess I can't believe it's going to stay at 18.7% and will we get those kind of margins in infrastructure next year which is sort a more norm?

Frank Simpkins

Analyst · Eli Lustgarten with Longbow Securities

As far -- we're going to continue to do well. I think some of the restructuring benefits, most of the benefits were on the industrial side as opposed to the infrastructure. So we're going to continue to watch the discipline. We've got some key initiatives and some new products on the industrial side. Particularly, we like the relationship with the Fastenal arrangement, so that's going to help us there. So we think -- we don't expect much deterioration at all from that perspective. And then I think we should see a little bit of a benefit on the infrastructure side as we catch up with the price increases and the raw materials.

Eli Lustgarten - Longbow Research LLC

Analyst · Eli Lustgarten with Longbow Securities

Now you're referring to the deterioration from the year number? Or the fourth quarter number?

Frank Simpkins

Analyst · Eli Lustgarten with Longbow Securities

From the fourth quarter.

Eli Lustgarten - Longbow Research LLC

Analyst · Eli Lustgarten with Longbow Securities

So you expect you can keep the margins in the high teens industrially for early next year on a seasonal basis?

Carlos Cardoso

Analyst · Eli Lustgarten with Longbow Securities

Absolutely. And, Eli, I'll remind you that the cycles of the 2 business are different. So you'll see a time where the infrastructure margins are higher than the industrial. And typically in the recovery, the industrial margins are better.

Eli Lustgarten - Longbow Research LLC

Analyst · Eli Lustgarten with Longbow Securities

And, Frank, can you talk about the debt refinancing that you're doing? You said higher charges of $8 million, yet unless something really changes, you're going to save a couple of hundred basis points on the debt refinancing. So that $8 million all front-loaded in the first quarter, first and second quarter because of the course of finance, I mean, it's hard to believe it's going to go up except for court charges associated because your cost will be lower on the same day?

Frank Simpkins

Analyst · Eli Lustgarten with Longbow Securities

Yes, you're exactly correct. We will definitely be able to refinance the 7.2 notes much lower than where it's at today. So the strategy really, and the numbers actually, the higher interest expense works out whether we do want them to approach as whether we do the May pole tender. And then you could have a higher charge in one quarter, and then you have much lower earnings. So you got some seasonality that will skew the seasonality a little bit. Or we issue it in the fall and we keep the cash on the balance sheet and repay it back in June of 2012. Now we're going to have the higher carrying costs associated with the debts. We're looking at a couple of different ways and what's more advantageous, we'll look at it in the fall.

Eli Lustgarten - Longbow Research LLC

Analyst · Eli Lustgarten with Longbow Securities

But should we spread the higher $8 million? The $8 million is $2 million a quarter effectively, over the 4 quarters or front-loaded in the first half? I mean...

Frank Simpkins

Analyst · Eli Lustgarten with Longbow Securities

Yes, I would assume that we would most likely try to do it in the second quarter.

Eli Lustgarten - Longbow Research LLC

Analyst · Eli Lustgarten with Longbow Securities

So basically, the $8 million goes in one quarter and the second quarter? Is that what you're saying? Or?

Frank Simpkins

Analyst · Eli Lustgarten with Longbow Securities

No. There's 2 different scenarios. It depends on what we do. So you can either spread it if we do the ladder scenario that I'd talked about. If we would do the May pole, you would probably have more in the second quarter and less in the second half.

Eli Lustgarten - Longbow Research LLC

Analyst · Eli Lustgarten with Longbow Securities

Okay. It's something like that. One final question. One of the benefits in cutting through -- I mean, the Japanese tragedy also affected the #4 to #7 suppliers in cutting tools globally. Did you see much benefit of that? Or are you hearing much from customers wanting to make sure they had supplies, and give me some share? And will that sustain itself?

Carlos Cardoso

Analyst · Eli Lustgarten with Longbow Securities

Yes, Eli, this is Carlos. I mean, it's really hard to quantify because most of that would have come from WIDIA replacement. And as you said earlier, WIDIA for the year grew at 37%. So clearly, we have replaced some of those Japanese suppliers. And -- but we can't quantify. I would say they would most likely keep the majority of it.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Holden Lewis with BB&T. Holden Lewis - BB&T Capital Markets: Are you able to give a sense, I mean, you've had a number of price increases both sort of big broad once as well as maybe more targeted smaller ones. And then I think that they, sort of, can concentrate towards the back half of '11. When you're talking about your revenue growth rates, what are we assuming for price in that? And, I guess, I'm curious on what you achieved in '11, and if that carries forward, you'd get a full year, what that sort of implies about '12?

Carlos Cardoso

Analyst · Holden Lewis with BB&T

Yes, I mean, I'll talk from '12 and Frank can fill in on the '11. But we typically plan for a 1% to 2% price increase as we start the year. All I can tell you that it is higher this year for 2012. And, obviously, we're not going to get into very specific details for competitive reasons. Frank, '11?

Frank Simpkins

Analyst · Holden Lewis with BB&T

Yes. Again, I think we've -- Holden, we don't want to necessarily give out, as you know we do reflect prices in our organic growth rate. But to Carlos' point, it was above our typical average in the fourth quarter. And that's all I'll comment on at this point. But the raw material costs increase a lot faster. And I know what you're trying to get at, but at this point, I'm not comfortable with the price given that assumption out of -- given the competition dynamics. Holden Lewis - BB&T Capital Markets: Okay. So fair enough. But on the price cost dynamic, than looking at the 2 blended. I think your thoughts were where tungsten was before, that you'd sort of be behind on the margin in the second half of this just done fiscal year. And then you'd be sort of at or above parity on the margin in the first half of fiscal '12. Given what tungsten's done in your pricing actions, do you still feel like you've sort of got back to neutral by the time you get into this Q1 period? Or is tungsten pushed to behind that a bit?

Frank Simpkins

Analyst · Holden Lewis with BB&T

We're close to that. Let me just say it that way.

Carlos Cardoso

Analyst · Holden Lewis with BB&T

And by year end, we'll be ahead, if everything stays the same, obviously. Holden Lewis - BB&T Capital Markets: Okay. So things pushed in right a little bit. And then last thing, working capital, looks like your inventory and receivables led up to fair bit, any commentary on that?

Frank Simpkins

Analyst · Holden Lewis with BB&T

We finished with the strongest month of the year on the receivables side. So very strong finish on the sales. And then we had to buy some additional raw materials at higher prices. So temporarily, a little bit higher on the inventory side. But I like the progress that our purchasing and treasury team have done with the payables. So where -- we had a nice plan to get that back in the line. So that will continue to increase as we go into next year, and then to really focus in on the receivables and particularly, or I should say more importantly, our inventory turns as we go forward.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Julian Mitchell with Crédit Suisse. Sheila Kahyaoglu - Crédit Suisse AG: This is actually Sheila on behalf of Julian. A few questions for you, on the incremental margins, I know it was discussed that they were about 30% in the quarter. I assume some of that was because of FX, was such a big tailwind for the topline. So a bit of a headwind on the margin. On fiscal '12, that should accelerate. But your guidance implies 30% at the low end, 37% at the high end, so the midpoint is accelerating from the Q4 level, is that correct?

Frank Simpkins

Analyst · Cleveland Research

Yes. To start with your first point there, the difference between the -- of constant currency and actual which is 32%, point out and 34%, if you put on a constant currency basis. Currency, when we look at that for the year, I'll just use one currency to give you some kind of guidance. We finished this year, the average euro as we do it was about $1.36. When you do your plan right, we assumed $1.37 for the full year, and now it's a little bit higher. So you don't obviously lever at all or very little bit on the incremental margin. So the way we did our plan, FX shouldn't have a significant impact given that the euro's our biggest currency. And we're looking at around the constant currency basis, the $1.36 to $1.37. I don't think at this point the way we did the plan and the guidance is going to have a significant impact. But if the currencies get out of line, we'll update at the end of every quarter, as we typically do. Sheila Kahyaoglu - Crédit Suisse AG: And also any change on order trends or demand trends from June to July? Can you comment on that?

Carlos Cardoso

Analyst · Cleveland Research

Outside of seasonality, the orders are consistent with our guidance. We feel good about it. Sheila Kahyaoglu - Crédit Suisse AG: And last question, on just a quick one. Aerospace and Defense grew 8% in the June quarter. Commentary around the Paris Air Show suggest that they should pick up as commercial aerospace accelerates in fiscal '12? Do you think that's accurate to assume?

Carlos Cardoso

Analyst · Cleveland Research

Yes, absolutely. I mean, the orders by the time we ship, take a little longer in the aerospace market. But we feel very good. And our aerospace business is starting to do very well.

Frank Simpkins

Analyst · Cleveland Research

Yes. The only thing that I would add to that is we had our best quarter in aerospace in the June quarter. And that trend's up from March. So you can extrapolate that.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Ann Duignan with JPMorgan. Ingrid Aja - JP Morgan Chase & Co: It's Ingrid. I'm just standing in for Ann. I'm wondering if we could circle back to WIDIA. What kind of growth expectation is in your guidance for WIDIA this year? And I guess, what percent of that growth is driven by Fastenal building its inventory?

Carlos Cardoso

Analyst · Ann Duignan with JPMorgan

Well, I mean, we are not going to publish how much our growth is expected obviously for competitive reasons. But we expect WIDIA to continue to outpace all the areas in our business. And the Fastenal is again really hard to predict. As a matter fact, this week, we have probably 100, close to 170 people here getting training for -- from Fastenal. So it's really hard to predict. Our assumptions right now is the growth is going to be small. But we'll see how it goes through the year. So it's very difficult to predict at this point.

Frank Simpkins

Analyst · Ann Duignan with JPMorgan

So, Ingrid, again , that's -- the couple of comments there, we like the growth opportunities particularly with Fastenal driving that in the Americas. And I also like the opportunities we have in Asia. So there's -- these are -- this is really starting to gain some traction on all geographies. Ingrid Aja - JP Morgan Chase & Co: Okay, great. That's helpful. And then just going back to the price increases and offsetting the cost. Are you still expecting the 40% incremental operating margin target through the cycle? Or is there expectation around that changed at all?

Frank Simpkins

Analyst · Ann Duignan with JPMorgan

I think we took that into consideration with our guidance here, if you look over the past 3 years. We think we're pretty much in that because the prior year was very strong, we've finished the year right around 40% this year. And as some of the calls earlier, somebody commented between 30 to mid-30s. So that puts us right where we committed to previously.

Carlos Cardoso

Analyst · Ann Duignan with JPMorgan

Yes. And I would expect that by mid-year, again according to our guidance, we are at a run rate of the peak. So peak sales in the past. So I would say that if you really look at and calculate that, our 40% incremental margin through the cycle, I believe we're going to meet or exceed that.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Walter Liptak with Barrington Research.

Walter Liptak - Barrington Research Associates, Inc.

Analyst · Walter Liptak with Barrington Research

I wanted to ask about the seasonality. And, Frank, I think you commented normal seasonality, 40%-60%. Looking back at this year, there were some issues early in the year with the EPS coming in at, I think, 34% in the first half. And I guess, what are the puts and takes here? Pricing is probably in better shape than it was last year. But we're -- it looks like some of the industrial regions are starting to slow a little bit. Should we be cautious on the first half?

Frank Simpkins

Analyst · Walter Liptak with Barrington Research

I think we're a little bit more -- we look at -- your right, Walt, the driver's obviously, it'll be what price does, what industrial production does on a global basis. That's how we kind of look at it. And like anything else, we put a stake in the ground at the end of the year. We look, historically, how it's been. We kind of rolled up. I'm not going to try to get it too precise here, plus or minus on the 40 and same thing with the 60, it could move a little bit higher, it can move a little bit lower. Depending on how at the second half of the calendar year. But as you would expect, fiscal '12, or the second half of our fiscal year's in calendar '12. So as we get a little bit more visibility we'll update it as we go forward. But that's our best estimate at this point.

Carlos Cardoso

Analyst · Walter Liptak with Barrington Research

Well, industrial production for IPI for FY '11 was 5.9. Current forecast for FY '12 is 5.2. So it's going to go down from 5.9 to 5.2. My point is, though, I'll be really happy with 5.2 and 13% growth, 11% to 13% growth on top line.

Walter Liptak - Barrington Research Associates, Inc.

Analyst · Walter Liptak with Barrington Research

Would you expect that like in the first, second quarter that we're going to have equal quarters, like 20 and 20? Or do you think the first quarter will, because of holidays and things like that will be weaker than the second?

Frank Simpkins

Analyst · Walter Liptak with Barrington Research

If you take into consideration the debt, I think, the second quarter would be a little bit less because of higher interest expense. But on the surface, not exactly 20-20. But the second quarter's on a normal basis, is a little bit stronger than the first.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Andy Casey with Wells Fargo Securities.

Andrew Casey - Wells Fargo Securities, LLC

Analyst · Andy Casey with Wells Fargo Securities

A couple of questions. First on free cash flow guidance. At the midpoint of your fiscal '12 guidance, you're expecting free cash flow as a percent of net income to be about roughly 90%. That's up pretty strongly from this year's performance, not adjusting for the restructuring. What is changing to achieve that given you're looking for higher CapEx?

Frank Simpkins

Analyst · Andy Casey with Wells Fargo Securities

Well, I think the inventory growth was the main driver in the prior year. Andy, I don't we need -- we won't need increase as much on the inventory side as we did in the past year. So that was a, I don't want to call it drag, but kind of, growth with the working capital on fiscal '11 versus '12.

Carlos Cardoso

Analyst · Andy Casey with Wells Fargo Securities

We also did some strategic buys on the raw material because the raw material increased quite a bit. So you had demand coming in. And the growth in this 2012 as a percentage of growth is going to be lower. So we've built the inventory to support FY '12 growth. And we did some strategic buys on the raw material.

Frank Simpkins

Analyst · Andy Casey with Wells Fargo Securities

Andy, I would add to your point on the CapEx which is up year-over-year. That's really pretty fast, it's kind of -- it's emerging, I'll call it market expansion in Asia. In a couple of areas, the support for some new products that we have here, that you and the guys all know about Beyond Blast. And to further drive increased profitability, we also put some equipment into productivity.

Andrew Casey - Wells Fargo Securities, LLC

Analyst · Andy Casey with Wells Fargo Securities

Okay, thank you for that. Then if I can turn back on the prior demand questions, clearly I'm sure you've seen other companies have talked about seeing demand soften in some regions. You're really diversified and have above market growth prospects. But I'm wondering if you're seeing any underlying market demand trend weakening recently in any region?

Carlos Cardoso

Analyst · Andy Casey with Wells Fargo Securities

Well, I mean, I think that I go back to the IPI, I mean, we're going from a 5.9 to a 5.2. So there is what I would consider a little bit of a deceleration. But is again, included and implied in our guidance. And we really haven't seen any weakness in any particular market at this point.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Henry Kim with UBS.

Henry Kirn - UBS Investment Bank

Analyst · Henry Kim with UBS

I wonder if you could talk a little bit about the mix shift from direct to indirect as we go through fiscal '12? Where do you expect to be as we exit fiscal '12 versus where we are today?

Carlos Cardoso

Analyst · Henry Kim with UBS

Well, I mean, I think that we believe that we're going to continue to grow. Or we will grow the indirect faster than that direct. So I haven't actually looked at from a percentage, we typically say that we're about 60%-40%. I'm not sure what the impact in the overall percentage is. So our growth in 2011, the indirect, grew at a much higher pace than the company as a whole. And I believe that it's going to be the same case this year, 2012.

Henry Kirn - UBS Investment Bank

Analyst · Henry Kim with UBS

Is there a margin impact from that, on the operating margin level?

Carlos Cardoso

Analyst · Henry Kim with UBS

No. If it's anything, it's positive at the operating margin.

Henry Kirn - UBS Investment Bank

Analyst · Henry Kim with UBS

And one final one, if I could, could you walk through your latest thoughts on M&A?

Carlos Cardoso

Analyst · Henry Kim with UBS

I mean, we have a healthy pipeline. And we are always in discussions with the number of companies. But as you know, forecasting something is very, very difficult. So we are open and would do an acquisition that would make sense. And we're always in talks with some companies.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Steve Barger with KeyBanc Capital Markets.

Steve Barger - KeyBanc Capital Markets Inc.

Analyst · Steve Barger with KeyBanc Capital Markets

As you've gone through some of the sensitivity analysis on your, kind of, forward look, if you think about a slow to medium growth industrial production environment given your cost structure and how your operating now, do you think your EPS growth rate on a normalized basis settles in at high teens, a low 20% over time? So nothing about '12, just on a go-forward basis?

Carlos Cardoso

Analyst · Steve Barger with KeyBanc Capital Markets

Yes. Absolutely. I mean, we always talked about 15% being sort of our next milestone. We also talked about that we believe this business is the mid to high-teens EBIT margin business.

Steve Barger - KeyBanc Capital Markets Inc.

Analyst · Steve Barger with KeyBanc Capital Markets

No. I'm talking about earnings growth rate.

Carlos Cardoso

Analyst · Steve Barger with KeyBanc Capital Markets

Yes. The same.

Steve Barger - KeyBanc Capital Markets Inc.

Analyst · Steve Barger with KeyBanc Capital Markets

Same thing? Okay. And thinking about the overall goal of growing 2x global industrial production, when you put together the current growth forecast, can you tell us what the implied growth rate is in developing markets versus developed? And then how you see that kind of shaking out over the year?

Carlos Cardoso

Analyst · Steve Barger with KeyBanc Capital Markets

I'll give you a, I mean, a point of reference that again it goes back to the IPI. The Asia Pacific area has an IPI of 8.7 versus NAFTA at 4.1 and versus the European union at 2.7. So the developing economies are going to grow at a significantly higher pace than the developed economies. That's going to continue.

Steve Barger - KeyBanc Capital Markets Inc.

Analyst · Steve Barger with KeyBanc Capital Markets

So you look at that higher growth rate in the developed economies, and I know market share can be hard to gauge in some of those markets. Do you have share gain targets? And can you measure that versus just what the cycle gives you?

Carlos Cardoso

Analyst · Steve Barger with KeyBanc Capital Markets

No. I mean it's really hard especially in developing economies because the data is just not there. But my view is that if we are growing in 2-3x the IPI market, I mean we have to be getting some market share, right?

Steve Barger - KeyBanc Capital Markets Inc.

Analyst · Steve Barger with KeyBanc Capital Markets

Yes, that's the reason.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Brian Rayle with Northcoast Research.

Brian Rayle - Northcoast Research

Analyst · Brian Rayle with Northcoast Research

Most of my questions have been answered. I guess given the out-performance on the cost save at $170 million for the plant closures, has that changed any way how you're approaching your thought process? I know you stated in the past that you'd go back to the more normal restructuring to the course of the cycle as demand comes through? But given the out-performance here, does that change how you look at it at all?

Carlos Cardoso

Analyst · Brian Rayle with Northcoast Research

No, I mean, I think that we're at least from what we see for the 2012 guidance and where we see the growth to be is that we would not do any called out [ph]restructure. If you look at it that way, I mean, we are constantly looking at our cost and adjusting our cost accordingly. But the difference between the previous estimate and what we came out is 2 additional plants. And I think at this point, we feel very that we are sized properly for our going forward projections.

Brian Rayle - Northcoast Research

Analyst · Brian Rayle with Northcoast Research

So I guess stepping back from just 2012, but longer-term. You guys had historically closed one to 2 plants or rationalized facilities, whatever euphemism you want to use. Is that a pace that we should expect to be accelerating, given the success of this program?

Carlos Cardoso

Analyst · Brian Rayle with Northcoast Research

Well, I mean, I wouldn't -- at this point, there's a lot of, as I can sense in the call. And the economy, there's a lot of share around there. So we will probably not going to do that much this year. And I think going forward, our view is if we continue to have the growth that we think we're going to have, we'll go back to doing something like that going forward. We want to do that, but we would not accelerate that. And I continue to remind everybody that's not a lot of square footage is just typically our very small plants that have fixed costs that we can eliminate by moving, I mean, to one of the larger facilities.

Brian Rayle - Northcoast Research

Analyst · Brian Rayle with Northcoast Research

No, absolutely, yes, the rationalization makes complete sense.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Holden Lewis with BB&T. Holden Lewis - BB&T Capital Markets: A couple of things as it relates to sort of profitability going forward. First, with regards to where you feel you're sized to. I think in the past, you've talked about really not having to make any investment to support growth until you're about a $3 billion kind of business again. Can you comment on that? And then secondly, the SAP system that you rolled out, I guess, you're tweaking that through the March period, or what have you. You should have about a quarter now of really trying to run it and get the benefits and advantages out of it. Can you talk a little bit about what you're doing with that and what the expected benefits and contributions should be from that?

Carlos Cardoso

Analyst · Holden Lewis with BB&T

Yes, I mean, I'll talk about the SAP isn't really now 6 months. We kicked it off in January 3. And I think some of the benefits are already into the $170 million that we talked about. So going forward, I think we're going to have a better understanding of our customers. We're going to have a better understanding of our markets in market share as well as some of our specific cost. I think the visibility is very good. And so we haven't really quantified any additional savings. I mean again, our margin continues to expand, therefore the benefits are one of the drivers for the expansion of the margin is cost savings are coming from the SAP and how we run the business. Relative to the $3 billion is we're still looking at that. That is we don't have to make any major investments in our infrastructure to get there. And again, our capital is in line around the depreciation, so we plan to continue in that pace. Holden Lewis - BB&T Capital Markets: And on the SAP things, I mean, you're not sort of attributing, we think just broadly 50 basis points of annual improvement related to things that stem from the system. There's no way to sort of quantify or put a range around with that benefit of farming that could be?

Carlos Cardoso

Analyst · Holden Lewis with BB&T

No. I mean our first priority with SAP, and the changing of the organization, was that we're going to make sure that $170 million were fixed, permanent, cost take-out and they wouldn't be coming back. So we did things like, we integrated all the payables into one area. And receivables and so forth. So all of that, majority of that was part of the $170 million cost take-out. Now what we're going to get forward is the SAP is going to get help us with growth. Because it's going to help us to be more focused and so forth and understand our customers better.

Operator

Operator

And this concludes our Q&A period. Ms. McGuire, do you have any further remarks?

Quynh McGuire

Analyst

Yes, this concludes our discussion today. Please contact me, Quynh McGuire, at (724) 539-6559 for any follow-up questions. Thanks for joining us.