Kennametal Inc. (KMT) Q4 2026 Earnings Report, Transcript and Summary

Good morning. I would like to welcome everyone to Kennametal Fourth Quarter and Fiscal 2026 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] Please note that this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Michael Pici, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.

Thank you, operator. Welcome, everyone, and thank you for joining us to review Kennametal's Fourth Quarter and Fiscal 2026 results. This morning, we issued our earnings press release and posted our presentation slides on our website. We will be referring to that slide deck throughout today's call. I'm Michael Pici, Vice President of Investor Relations. Joining me on the call today are Sanjay Chowbey, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Pat Watson, Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. After Sanjay and Pat's prepared remarks, we will open the line for questions. At this time, I'd like to direct your attention to our forward-looking disclosure statement. Today's discussion contains comments that constitute forward-looking statements and as such, involve a number of assumptions, risks and uncertainties that could cause the company's actual results, performance or achievements to differ materially from those expressed in or implied by such statements. These risk factors and uncertainties are detailed in Kennametal's SEC filings. In addition, we will be discussing non-GAAP financial measures on the call today. Reconciliations to GAAP financial measures that we believe are most directly comparable can be found on the back of the slide deck and on our Form 8-K on our website. And with that, I'll turn the call over to Sanjay.

Thank you, Mike. Good morning, and thank you for joining us. I will begin the call today with a brief review of the fiscal year, followed by an aerospace product spotlight and some end market commentary supporting our fiscal '27 outlook. Then Pat will cover the quarterly financial results as well as the fiscal '27 outlook. Finally, I'll make summary comments and then open the line for questions. Beginning on Slide 3 for an overview of our strong fiscal year results. Throughout fiscal '26, we continue to win new business and expand our share of wallet with key customers across diverse end markets like aerospace and defense, energy, transportation and earthworks. Our success reflects the strength of our core competencies, which includes material science and process technology, application engineering and a secure global supply chain. This combination of expertise, innovation and global operations is a strong competitive advantage for us. For the last several years, we have used a systematic approach to our growth initiatives, which includes identifying the most attractive opportunities and allocating the resources needed to capitalize on them. An important aspect of this approach is that it is repeatable and sustainable. I will cover an aerospace and defense example of this in a moment. We broadened our growth platforms this year through wins tied to AI-powered data centers, defense programs, mining projects and next-generation vehicle powertrains. At the same time, we also advanced new digital machining solutions that enhance customer productivity. In addition to the growth we saw from our own strategic initiatives, we experienced improvements in several of our end markets. The key external market factors we track all have improved, including IPI, PMI, light vehicle production and aircraft build rates. At the same time, rig counts stabilized during the year. The final component of sales growth is price, driven by higher tungsten costs. Tungsten outside of China has now stabilized but remains at historically high levels. We implemented several pricing actions in response to this environment. As you have heard us say previously, we are committed to offsetting the impact that this additional cost is having on the business. Finally, we realized $27 million in restructuring savings this year and remain committed to $110 million of savings by the end of fiscal '27. Now let's move to our full year results. Full year organic sales increased 19% year-over-year, driven by additional price realization and modest volume. From an end market perspective, for fiscal '26, all end markets experienced growth on a constant currency basis. For the full year, adjusted EPS increased to $4.57 compared to $1.34 in the prior year. Adjusted EBITDA margin was 26.9% compared to 15.2% in the prior year. As expected, free cash flow was adversely impacted by increased working capital requirements directed to tungsten prices. Cash flow from operating activities was negative $4 million and free operating cash flow was negative $79 million. And finally, we returned $71 million to shareholders, $61 million through dividends and $10 million through share repurchases. More details on our full year performance can be found on Slide 18 in the appendix. Pat will provide a detailed overview on the fourth quarter results in his prepared remarks. In summary, we are pleased with the way the team executed this year on growth, lean transformation and cost-out initiatives, while also navigating this unique and unprecedented business environment. Now before I provide an update on end markets, I want to call your attention to Slide 4. This highlights our metal cutting solution to address machining challenges aerospace customers have with carbon fiber reinforced plastics or CFRP. This is one of the most exciting growth stories in our portfolio. CFRP is an extremely strong, rigid and lightweight composite material that is difficult to machine. Due to its high strength to weight ratio, it is widely used in aerospace and automotive manufacturing, where fuel efficiency is a key focus. We are competing in a roughly $500 million market for cutting tools used on carbon fiber composites in aerospace. This market is expected to grow 9% a year through 2028, one of the fastest-growing material groups we serve. Aerospace demand for lightweight composites remains strong. What makes this market especially attractive is the economics. Consumption for diamond coating cutting tools for CFRP is almost double that of cutting tools for aluminum. These can't be easily reconditioned. Once they are consumed, customers come back for a replacement. That provides us a durable recurring revenue base. How we win here is again tied to our core competencies as we are leveraging our engineering and material science expertise. We design innovative solutions using standard and custom tooling with proprietary geometry and material science. This delivered longer tool life and cleaner cuts. We pair that product advantage with deep channel relationships and a well-trained sales and application engineering team. This expands our reach and helps customers solve their manufacturing challenges. Let me give you an example. A customer recently faced a supply disruption from a competitor. So our team quickly stepped in, delivered a superior product and guaranteed supply, and we won that business outright. This is only one example of growth opportunities driving performance in aerospace. Since composites are also used in applications across the transportation and general engineering end markets, we are excited about the prospects of leveraging our expertise to serve this growing application. We will apply the same disciplined, repeatable process I discussed earlier to this growth opportunity. This process helps us identify the most attractive opportunities, move resources quickly and drive growth and share gains, while leveraging our global supply chain to deliver innovative solutions on time and to specification. Turning to Slide 5, I want to frame the end market demand environment supporting our full year fiscal '27 outlook. As a reminder, our full year outlook reflects forecast of specific market drivers and general market conditions. The top half of this slide reflects our sales outlook at the midpoint and includes price, volume and market factors. I will focus on the bottom half of the slide and the market conditions by end market. Aerospace and defense remains a structural growth engine. On the aerospace side, commercial OEM build rates continue to recover as supply chains normalize and production restrictions ease. In defense, we are seeing a proposed increase in the U.S. budget, coupled with NATO members planning to significantly raise spending. This provides a durable multiyear demand trajectory. Aerospace and defense also continues as a strategic growth initiatives for us. You might remember at our last Investor Day, we talked about shifting resources from transportation to aerospace and defense in the Americas to grow our position in that market. That helped us drive share gains and new opportunities like the one I mentioned a few minutes ago. Coupled with key wins on various defense opportunities, aerospace and defense is now projected to be our third largest end market. General engineering is stable. U.S. and European industrial production are both forecast up low single digits, and China has returned to modest expansion. Energy growth is anticipated to be strong. The U.S. land-based rig count has turned decisively. Prior estimates were a mid-single-digit decline. Projections now forecast rig counts up high single digits. Customer sentiment has moved from cautious to improving and combined with increased rig counts supports a meaningful upward revision to this end market assumption. The trend in the market for AI data center power generation continues to experience rapid expansion, which provides further support for growth in this end market. Now there are some offsets we are monitoring. Transportation continues to be soft. Global light vehicle production moved from up about 1 point in fiscal '26 to down about 1 point in fiscal '27, mainly in the Americas and Europe. In earthworks, mining share gains are partially offset by soft coal markets in the U.S. and China, though customers, they are increasingly consolidating towards reliable suppliers like us. And in road construction, we are assuming that normal seasonality and competitive pressures continue. Netting it out, our fiscal '27 sales assumptions in constant currency and including price reflect broad-based growth across most end markets. We are confident that this market recovery is broad enough and the pricing environment firm enough to support our outlook and growth trajectory into fiscal '27. Now let me turn the call over to Pat, who will review the fourth quarter financial performance.

Thank you, Sanjay, and good morning, everyone. I will begin on Slide 6 with a review of our fourth quarter operating results. Q4 was the fourth consecutive quarter of organic sales growth with an organic sales increase of 42%. Our results for the quarter reflect strong price realization from our decisive pricing actions driven by the unprecedented rise in tungsten costs and continued volume improvements in metal cutting. At the segment level, sales increased organically 22% in metal cutting and 74% in infrastructure. On a constant currency basis, Americas sales increased 60%, Asia Pacific increased 28% and EMEA increased 24%. We experienced growth in all our end markets on a constant currency basis. Energy increased 101% Earthworks 76%; Aerospace and Defense, 43%; General Engineering, 28%; and Transportation, 7%. I will provide more color when I review the segment results in a moment. We achieved record adjusted EBITDA and operating margins of 46.8% and 41.5%, respectively, versus 14.8% and 7.4% in the prior year quarter. The margin increase was driven by favorable timing of raw material pricing compared to costs of $252 million, non-raw material-related pricing and tariff surcharges in Metal Cutting, higher sales and production volumes and incremental year-over-year restructuring savings of approximately $5 million. These were partially offset by higher compensation costs tariffs and general inflation. Adjusted earnings per share was $2.96 in the quarter, a record high for the company versus $0.34 in the prior year period. The main drivers of our EPS performance are highlighted on the bridge on Slide 7. The year-over-year effect of operations this quarter was $2.55. This reflects approximately $2.43 of favorable timing of raw material pricing compared to costs, non-raw material-related pricing and tariff surcharges in Metal Cutting, higher sales and production volume and incremental restructuring benefits of $0.05 per share. These were partially offset by higher compensation costs, tariffs and general inflation. A lower effective tax rate contributed a $0.09 benefit in the quarter, driven by geographic mix. The headwind of $0.07 in other is mainly driven by higher share count and slightly higher interest expense. You can also see $0.04 of transaction gains related to preferential Bolivia exchange rates. Currency and pension effects offset each other, and there is a $0.01 gain from the Inflation Reduction Act tax credit. Slides 8 and 9 detail the performance of our segments this quarter. Metal Cutting sales grew 22% organically and 24% on a reported basis. We outperformed the public peers again this quarter. That marks the fourth quarter in a row and extends a favorable trend that started 4 years ago. Regionally, on a constant currency basis, the Americas increased 29%, Asia Pacific increased 20% and EMEA increased 16%. Looking at sales by end market on a constant currency basis, Energy increased 36% this quarter. The growth was driven by price and continued AI data center project wins. Aerospace and Defense grew 35% year-over-year as we capitalize on higher build rates and accelerate share of wallet gains in tier suppliers in the Americas and EMEA. General Engineering grew 25% year-over-year, driven by higher price realization and share gains in the indirect channel. For an example, in the Americas, we leveraged our strategic partnership with a large national distributor to expand our reach. And lastly, Transportation increased 7% year-over-year as higher price was partially offset by prior year project wins in Asia Pacific, including EV-related program activity. Metal Cutting adjusted operating margin was 27.3% compared to 7.9% in the prior year, driven by favorable timing of raw material-related pricing compared to cost of $54 million. non-raw material pricing and tariff surcharges, higher sales and production volume and restructuring savings of $4 million, partially offset by higher compensation costs and general inflation. Turning to Slide 9 for Infrastructure. Organic sales grew by 74% year-over-year with favorable foreign exchange of 1% and a favorable business day effect of 1%, partially offset by a divestiture effect of 3%. Regionally, on a constant currency basis, sales in the Americas increased 103%, EMEA grew 46% and Asia Pacific grew 40%. Looking at sales by end market on a constant currency basis, Energy grew 135%, mainly driven by price in the Americas, partially offset by volume as we prioritized other end markets. Earthworks grew 76%, driven by price and higher volume in surface mining and construction from share gains due to availability of materials. Aerospace and Defense grew 63%, driven by price and continued execution of our strategic initiatives in the Americas and EMEA. And lastly, General Engineering grew 37% from price and volume growth in EMEA, partially offset by volume prioritization in the Americas. Adjusted operating margin increased to 58.4% compared to 6.8%, primarily due to favorable timing of raw material pricing compared to cost of $198 million, partially offset by lower sales and production volume, higher compensation costs and general inflation. Now turning to Slide 10 to review our free operating cash flow and balance sheet. Free operating cash flow as a percent of adjusted net income was modestly better than we anticipated. Our full year free operating cash flow was negative $79 million compared to positive $121 million reported in the prior year. The change in free operating cash flow was primarily the result of increased working capital required by higher tungsten prices. Net capital expenditures were $75 million compared to $87 million in the prior year. In total, we returned $71 million to shareholders, $61 million through dividends and $10 million from share repurchases. Our share repurchase program remained positive this quarter as a result of the higher tungsten pricing and corresponding working capital needs. During the quarter, we took actions to enhance liquidity, extend debt maturities to position the company to capture near-term growth opportunities. These actions provide additional liquidity to support near-term tungsten-related working capital needs and preserve financial flexibility to respond to future market developments, while maintaining balance sheet discipline. At quarter end, we had combined cash and revolver availability of approximately $926 million, which includes the additional $200 million available by exercising the accordion feature on our revolver, and we are well within our financial covenants. Additionally, we had full availability of our new $500 million term loan. As is customary, this facility is a use it or lose it proposition. So we intend to fully draw the new term loan during the September quarter and pay down any revolver borrowings. Going forward, the term loan can be paid down within the 3-year term, which gives us the flexibility to scale down the balance sheet if working capital needs decline. With the refinancing of the 2028 notes, the remaining $91 million of outstanding notes were redeemed on July 1, we have meaningfully extended our debt maturity profile. Our nearest debt maturity is July 2029, and our public notes maturities are now extended to 2031 and 2036, respectively. The full balance sheet can be found on Slide 22 in the appendix. Turning to Slide 11 regarding our full year outlook. We are providing a range for both the full year and the first quarter, beginning with the full year. We expect FY '27 sales to be between $3.33 billion and $3.45 billion, with volume ranging from 1% to 4%, price and tariff surcharges ranging from approximately 40% to 43% and a neutral effect from foreign exchange. We have been successful and remain committed to achieving price. As Sanjay noted earlier in his remarks, most end market indicators maintained positive momentum into FY '27. At the midpoint at constant currency and including price, we expect all end markets to increase high double digits year-over-year. Our annual outlook also assumes that tungsten will remain stable at the current level. Additionally, we are assuming that there is no material effect on customer activity as a result of the conflict in the Middle East. Approximately $10 million of rollover savings from our previously announced restructuring initiative has been included. We expect interest expense of approximately $50 million due to the additional borrowings to fund working capital requirements and an effective tax rate of approximately 25%. We expect adjusted EPS in the range of $4.15 to $5.15. On the cash side, the full year outlook for working capital expenditures is $85 million and the outlook for primary working capital is 45% by fiscal year-end. Taken together, we expect free operating cash flow to be approximately 20% of adjusted net income, reflecting the working capital pressure from the rising cost of tungsten. The bridge on Slide 12 highlights the main drivers impacting EPS at the midpoint of our outlook. The bridge walks you from our FY '26 adjusted EPS of $4.57 to the midpoint of our FY '27 outlook of $4.65, pretty flat on the surface. Underneath that roughly flat headline number, the core earnings engine of the business continues to strengthen. There's a lot going on underneath, so let me unpack it. Starting with the tailwinds. First, operations adds about $0.53. Favorability of raw material pricing compared to costs is positive $0.39 for the full year with favorability occurring in the first half of the year, most significantly in the first quarter. Higher sales and production volume as end markets continue to improve and we execute on the share gain initiatives, together with lower incentive compensation of approximately $0.18 and about $0.10 of restructuring savings, partially offset by higher raw material costs as tungsten remains at elevated levels and higher wages and general inflation. We also expect a $0.17 benefit from the IRA advanced manufacturing credit. Now to the headwinds. Year-over-year, we will see a 23% Bolivia FX headwind as the Bolivian government has ended the preferential program. Higher interest expense is a $0.25 drag, reflecting our higher debt levels following the recent financing actions and other items of about $0.08, primarily a higher share count of $0.07. Taxes and pension are $0.04 and $0.02, respectively. Netted all together, and we arrive at an FY '27 midpoint of $4.65. The key takeaway is that our operational momentum, price realization, volume and cost discipline is essentially offsetting a set of largely nonoperational headwinds related to FX, interest and a higher tax rate. The FY '27 midpoint reflects a $0.39 EPS price raw tungsten impact as compared to $3.11 in the prior year. Our first quarter outlook can be found on Slide 13. We expect Q1 sales to be between $745 million and $775 million, with volume ranging from 1% to 4%, price and tariff surcharges in the range of 50% to 53% and neutral foreign exchange. Let me share some details on the sales assumptions affecting the Q1 outlook. Once again, similar to the full year impact, the combination of improving end market conditions, focus on share gain initiatives and price, we anticipate each end market to be up high double digits on a constant currency basis. Foreign exchange is neutral on both the sales and operating income basis. Interest expense is assumed to be approximately $11 million and an effective tax rate of approximately 25%. We expect adjusted EPS in the range of $2.50 to $2.80, which includes approximately $2.25 of favorable timing of raw material pricing compared to costs. Finally, as we discussed on our last call, I'll provide you some assumptions to help you model a FY '28 and beyond view of the business if tungsten were to remain at this elevated level. First, some context on the FY '27 quarterly cadence. We have provided the impact for Q1 and the full year effect of tungsten on the business. The FY '27 price raw benefit will be materially behind us by the beginning of the third quarter as we expect tungsten pricing and costing will be on the same level in the second half. The working capital build will follow the same pattern, and we expect free operating cash flow to turn positive in the second half. Assuming tungsten remains stable at the current level, we expect Q4 EBITDA margins in the mid-teens, which represents a clean quarter to use as a jump-off point to model FY '28 and beyond. In the current high price tungsten environment, we expect volume leverage to be in the mid-30s. This volume leverage estimate reflects the substantially higher raw material costs in the business as well as a sales mix that is more heavily weighted toward the infrastructure business. We remain committed to executing share gain initiatives to drive above-market growth, continuous improvement actions to enhance our margins and evaluating opportunities to optimize our portfolio. And with that, I'll turn it back over to Sanjay.

Thank you, Pat. Turning to Slide 14. Let me take a moment to summarize. We delivered a solid fiscal '26, driven by price and modest improvements in our end markets, project wins on the commercial side and cost improvement actions. We continue to make steady progress on our strategic growth initiatives, lean transformation and structural cost improvement, while also exploring ways to strengthen our portfolio over time. We are well positioned to continue to deliver on our commitments in fiscal '27 and remain confident in our plan for long-term value creation for our shareholders. And with that, operator, please open the line for questions.

[Operator Instructions] And our first question today will come from Angel Castillo with Morgan Stanley.

Congrats on a strong quarter. I would just love to go back to the normalized and the bridge that you provided. I guess you gave a lot of good color on the slides, but can you just help me reconcile a couple of things. If I just take the $0.39 EPS from raw material timing for fiscal year '27 and then also layering in the $3.11 that I think you had in the fiscal year '26 guide, it implies an underlying kind of normalized of $1.15, if I just kind of leave everything else unchanged. So just it seems like there's a number of puts and takes, but as I kind of look at the normalized earnings, I used to think about it as closer to $1.60. So has anything changed in terms of what you view as kind of the underlying kind of normalized run rate of the earnings bridge for this -- for the business? And as you think about that exit rate of fiscal year '27, just help us kind of level set what am I missing or what has changed?

No, I think, Angel, there's 2 things to consider, right? And let's go back to a simple view of, let's say, FY '26, right? And so when we talked a quarter ago, we talked about a midpoint of $3.88 and price raw effect in the year of about $2.45 and about $0.20 tailwind going into '27 from a comp perspective, and that kind of gets you a clean FY '26 of $1.63, right? I would say if you think about those numbers in the context now of what actually happened in the fourth quarter, EPS came in a bit higher, $4.57, really driven by a little bit of pricing, a little bit of raw material. That's why that price raw number went from $2.45 to $3.11, right? And then that comp number came in a little bit tighter. And so that's an $0.18 tailwind going into FY '27, so $1.64. So $1.63 in terms of what we thought that number was 90 days ago, $1.64 kind of in the world we're living in now. I think as well, as you think about what's happening in the context of FY '27, yes, you have $0.39 for the full year, right? But I think you got to figure into that, that the first half of that -- of the year is going to be positive, right? And as we talked about in the prepared remarks, in the third -- beginning of the third quarter, that price raw tailwind is going to be substantially behind us at that point in time. And so the benefit that we saw in FY '26, the $0.39 in Q3, the $2.43 in Q4 goes away, okay? And so you just have these fundamental 2 halves, where you're going to have strong price raw in the first half. And then on a year-over-year basis, it's going to be a headwind for us.

So just maybe kind of putting all that together, the dots together, you had the $1.63 was before. What would you kind of consider now your normalized

In terms of last year for FY '26, $1.64.

No, for fiscal year '27 I -- kind of all that stuff.

From a fiscal year '27 perspective, then you just -- you simply need to take back out the full amount of tungsten, right, from a FY '26 perspective, $2.43 plus the $0.39.

And then just maybe as a second question here, just in terms of the organic growth, could you just help us understand for the fiscal or 4Q, was volume for the total company up? Or was there a little bit of a drag when you kind of put all the pieces together? And then just curious, you talked about acceleration or good kind of improvements in some of the end markets here. Just curious how your kind of order trends right now are shaping up versus that 1% to 4% volume growth outlook?

Yes, certainly. So as we think about across the business, I'd say the business in total, low single digits from a volume perspective, a little bit different in terms of what's going on between the 2 businesses. Metal Cutting, a bit higher, mid-single-digit volume performance in Q4. Infrastructure, as we talked about, was volumetrically more flat. And there's -- inside of Infrastructure there, we did make some choices around portfolio in terms of customers we serve and how we're utilizing our material to drive ultimately the best return on the tungsten we have. Sanjay, do you want to add anything to that from a market perspective?

Yes. Angel, I'm just going to add to your second part of the question. Of course, as you know, that we have had 3 years of slow burn industrial production being soft. So '26 was the first year, where we saw mid-single digit, low single-digit type of numbers throughout the year. And then now as we are looking at it, we do expect the low single digit at the midpoint, we have given you 2.5% volume for fiscal '27. So that is definitely a positive news because that's going to build upon the base that we have in fiscal '26. And I will give you more color here at the -- by segment level. Aerospace and defense will be the strongest of that. The next will be energy. And following that will be general engineering, where we continue to see improvement in IPI across the board. And then you come into earthworks, which is flattish and transportation being the one that is negative slightly.

And our next question will come from Steve Barger with KeyBanc Capital Markets.

In Infrastructure, you took share in earthworks due to availability of materials. You just talked about that. But you also -- when you're prioritizing volume in energy and general engineering, does that mean on the whole, you were short material and lost potential sales due to the prioritization?

No, Steve. We are not short. What we're saying is that if as we see the growth in overall volume, including in aerospace and defense and the areas, where we do consume a lot more tungsten, we did prioritize what will drive the best return for our shareholders and how we get the best return on tungsten that we have. There was no shortage, but we were definitely allocating what we have. While there was no shortage, let's just say that even if we mentioned even supply, which we did secure, we were allocating based on where we can get the best return.

But I mean, so you have enough material for everybody, but you didn't sell to everybody because you want to drive those returns.

Yes. I think as you might have heard from even others that we could actually take more business if we can go get a lot more tungsten material. But there's no -- that doesn't mean that we have shortage. We are managing our overall supply chain and processing capacity because remember, it's not just about the ore. In our business, processing capacity is also one of the competitive advantage, which we do have. So that's where we have to manage how we allocate that capacity also.

Okay. Well, when I look at the 1% to 4% volume guidance for FY '27 in the context of the cycle inflection, how much of that is what the market is giving you? And how much is share gain would you estimate?

Yes. We are not breaking it down specifically, but I can tell you that it will be coming from both. As we have said before that above-market growth, 100 basis points to 200 basis points is our target. But whatever market does, we want to definitely do 100 basis points to 200 basis points better than market. So that gives you a rough idea. That's where we will be in terms of breakdown between market versus the strategic growth or so-called our own initiatives.

So just to clarify, I mean, if the market is up 1% or 2% and your guidance is 1% to 4%, your outgrowth should account for basically all of that.

No. So let me go -- sorry, go ahead, finish your question.

No, no, I was just trying to break apart what you consider outgrowth versus share gain.

Yes. So if you look at the overall volume growth that we have said, 1% to 4% in that share gain will be 1% to 2%. rest is market.

And our next question will come from Chris Dankert with D.A. Davidson.

I guess, apologies, a quick just clarification. I got a little bit lost on the explanation on price cost for fiscal '27 specifically. So again, if we take the $3.11 from this year and the $0.39 of raw material timing that we're benefiting from in '27, back that out, I'm coming to kind of a core ex price cost of about $1.15, is that right? And if not, could you just -- one more time run me through that, apologies.

I think -- yes, Chris, I think you've got to take in the other factors that are in play there as you build it up, right? And so clearly, in terms of -- versus the prior year, and if you're bridging it all the way back, you've got the Bolivia FX, you got to take out of there, too, right, since the Bolivian government ended that preferential exchange rate program here this quarter, right? And so when I think about that price raw, certainly, we've got the $0.39 going on here in FY '27, right? We've got the $3.11 going on from the prior year. That's the double stack, so to speak, right, if you pull all of that out.

And then I haven't seen anything in the presentation, was there any IEEPA benefit anywhere in the numbers here? Do we expect any benefit? Maybe just stake out anything around the tariff recovery.

Yes, Chris, we have applied for refunds, and we have received some, but it was immaterial to report. We continue to apply. Our overall plan at this point is that we will reinvest that to strengthen our overall supply chain security, supply network optimization and also product and service development to serve our customers better. But I would like to take the opportunity also to tell you that as you look at this situation that we were dealing with over the last 1.5 years, initially, we did incur some cost and then we implemented surcharges, but that was not our first action. First thing we did is to make sure that we have production moves. We moved several thousand parts around the world. We did supply chain network optimization, and then we passed along some of the surcharges. Of course, even with the new policies in place, tariffs are more or less in the similar zone. So that's how we are looking at it, and we're managing it in an overall sense, and we'll continue to monitor and take appropriate actions.

And our next question will come from Steve Volkmann with Jefferies.

Pat, thank you for the sort of cadence through '27. Obviously, the key and at least in my humble opinion, is sort of when we get back to kind of the core earnings of the company. So you talked about, I think, mid-teens EBITDA margin as sort of the 4Q exit rate for '27. I just want to make sure I had that right. And then okay, good. All right. So 2 questions about that. One is, I guess, we sort of give up the timing arbitrage on the raws here, obviously. But revenue will sort of stay in the ZIP code it's in, I guess, assuming that tungsten stays where it is. So as I just do the sort of the dumb math, it feels like you're talking about kind of a $600 million-ish in EBITDA run rate to exit -- annual run rate to exit 4Q, mid-teens margin on $3-ish billion of sales. Is that the right way to think about the annualized way to do that? Sorry if this is confusing.

Yes. I guess the way I would think about that, Steve, and so let's think about this from the standpoint of FY '27 from an overall outlook perspective, you've got basically that they're, let's call it, $3.4 billion roughly, okay? You think about that and you take that now forward a year, right, in a flat tungsten environment, that's the number you're going to kind of iterate off of small amount of incremental price, whatever you think the incremental volume is, right? That's kind of where I would take that forward. From an EBITDA perspective, yes, that fourth quarter, mid-teens EBITDA, right, that we expect based on what we know today, that's going to be a clean price raw quarter, right? And so then you can apply, say, normal seasonality of the business then going forward to really generate what that FY '28 EBITDA profile would be.

And then switching to the free cash flow. Just you mentioned that, that turns positive, I think, in the second half of FY '27. Is this a situation where we're going to get like 150% or 200% free cash flow at some point and kind of recapture this? Or does it just kind of slowly go back to something higher than 20%?

Yes. I would say when you think about this year and then how we've talked about what's going on from a price raw perspective, talking about cash flow effectively being the mirror image of that, right? And so when I think about how cash flow is going to develop this year, Q1 is going to be a sizable cash draw. And to put a fine point on that, probably in terms of just dollars around $200 million. And I would expect that, that's going to basically be, call it, the high watermark, right, for the cash draw here. And then in Q2, that would step down a little bit, right? And then in Q3, expectation is that now inflects positive, right? And that's more or less matching up with what's happening on the income statement on the price raw benefit, okay? It's just, again, somewhat the mirror image of that. And that's really driven by inventory valuation, right? And so obviously, you've seen there's a significant step-up here in inventory in the fourth quarter, anticipating another sizable inventory build here on valuation in Q3 and inventory will basically hit its peak for us here in the second quarter. [ Now we get into the ] back half of the year, back half of the year should have good positive cash flow to it.

And is FY '28 like way above $100 million or just directionally?

I would simply say with respect to FY '28 and kind of beyond, we would get -- we would return to a normalized cash generation profile. Again assuming, it comes [indiscernible].

[Operator Instructions] And our next question will be a follow-up from Chris Dankert with D.A. Davidson.

Hoping you can help me out on one other aspect of the fiscal '27 guide. So if I look at the operations bucket, we're looking at $0.53 for the year. If I back out the things you flagged there, the raw materials, lower incentive comp, restructuring, I'm kind of left with a core volume wage inflation number looks like a negative $0.15, $0.18, whatever EPS impact. So like how are we getting negative contribution on kind of the core volume? And just again, apologies if I'm misinterpreting that.

Yes. The way I look at that in terms of what's sitting in there, right, you got the $0.53. You got -- obviously, you got favorability in the raw material timing of $0.39. You've got the favorability on the comp coming in as well, right? You should have some favorability coming through, obviously, on the restructuring. We're going to have a little bit of, I'll just call it, the normal wage inflation and things like that, that are going on in the course of the business. And again, this is obviously at the midpoint as well, right? When you think about this over the context of the outlook, the outlook has some variability built to price into it as well, just again, given the sheer amount of tungsten going through the business today and how much price we're going after.

And this will conclude our question-and-answer session. I'd like to turn the conference back over to Sanjay Chowbey for any closing remarks.

Thank you, operator, and thank you, everyone, for joining the call today. As always, we appreciate your interest and support. Please don't hesitate to reach out to Mike if you have any questions. Have a great day.

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