Earnings Labs

The Coca-Cola Company (KO)

Q2 2016 Earnings Call· Wed, Jul 27, 2016

$78.83

+0.63%

Key Takeaways · AI generated
AI summary not yet generated for this transcript. Generation in progress for older transcripts; check back soon, or browse the full transcript below.

Same-Day

+0.58%

1 Week

+0.55%

1 Month

-0.18%

vs S&P

-0.54%

Transcript

Operator

Operator

At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to The Coca-Cola Company's Second Quarter 2016 Earnings Results Conference Call. Today's call is being recorded. If you have any objections, please disconnect at this time. All participants will be in a listen-only mode until the formal question-and-answer portion of the call. [Operation Instructions] I would like to remind everyone that the purpose of this conference is to talk with investors and, therefore, questions from the media will not be addressed. Media participants should contact Coca-Cola's Media Relations department if they have questions. I would now like to introduce Tim Leveridge, Vice President and Investor Relations Officer. Mr. Leveridge, you may begin. Timothy K. Leveridge - Vice President & Investor Relations Officer: Good morning and thank you for being with us today. I'm joined by Muhtar Kent, our Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; James Quincey, our President and Chief Operating Officer, and Kathy Waller, our Chief Financial Officer. Before we begin, I would like to inform you that you can find webcast materials in the Investors section of our company website at www.coca-colacompany.com that support the prepared remarks by Muhtar, James and Kathy this morning. I'd also like to note that we have posted schedules under the Financial Reports & Information tab in the Investor section of the company website. These schedules reconcile certain non-GAAP financial measures, which may be referred to by our senior executives during this morning's discussion, to our results as reported under Generally Accepted Accounting Principles. Please look on our website for this information. In addition, this conference call may contain forward-looking statements, including statements concerning long-term earnings objectives, and should be considered in conjunction with cautionary statements contained in our earnings release and in the company's most recent periodic SEC report. Following prepared remarks this morning,…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our first question comes from Steve Powers of UBS. Your line is open.

Stephen R. Powers - UBS Securities LLC

Analyst · UBS. Your line is open

Great. Hi. Good morning. Maybe we could start with a question for James on China mainly, because it sounds like that market was the biggest driver of the gap between your reported 3% organic growth and the 4% core number that you that cited, and I'm guessing it cost you roughly a point of unit case volume in the quarter as well. So first, is that right? But more importantly, is there a way to parse how much of the adverse impact is tied to the macro slowing, which I think is more likely to persist, versus supply chain corrections and wholesaler inventory de-stockings, which might hopefully be more transitory? I guess I'm really trying to assess just how much of a headwind China was in Q2 and then how severe you expect the ongoing headwind to be, acknowledging the improvement initiatives that you called out? And then finally, do the issues facing BIG in China impede, at all, your ability to refranchise that market on time and on favorable terms? Thanks. James Quincey - President & Chief Operating Officer: Okay. Morning, Steve. So, okay, let me try and get to China, and let me start from the top and work downwards, if I may. I mean, firstly, it's clear that, when you look at The Coke Company, almost half our revenue comes from bottling versus the other half comes from concentrate and franchise, but given, as you all know, that a bottling business comes with four to five times more revenue per drink sold and the accompanying cost, any effect on the revenue of the bottler is going to have a magnified impact on revenue and much less on profits, which is part of this dynamic. So in China, it's our largest international bottling operation. We own bottlers that…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Dara Mohsenian, Morgan Stanley. Your line is open. Dara W. Mohsenian - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC: Hi. Good morning. Ahmet Muhtar Kent - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: Morning. James Quincey - President & Chief Operating Officer: Morning. Dara W. Mohsenian - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC: I wanted to better understand why you maintain the FX-neutral income before taxes guidance, despite the negative full-year top-line revision. I'm assuming part of that is just the top-line weakness is in lower margin areas, so probably less of a margin impact, but can you give us more detail on why the local FX profit goals have not been as impacted by top-line weakness and how much visibility you have on the profit side and any leverage you have to protect downside if macros weaken further? Ahmet Muhtar Kent - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: Dara, I'll just comment first and then maybe ask Kathy and James if they want to add anything. But certainly you've answered part of it by saying that, yes, revenue challenges are coming from those areas that have much lower margins, number one, for sure. And then, secondly, productivity efforts are continuing that's driving the margin expansion in quarter two. Kathy mentioned the significant margin expansions that we have achieved. And I think productivity efforts are going to continue. And then, finally, I think there's also a mix. Some of our better markets, more profitable markets, are doing well, like the United States and Mexico and also in the Far East and Japan, so there's a mix issue. And then, finally, the commodities continue to be pretty benign in terms of the outlook. So those are the things that play into all together, but primarily, the one that you mentioned, which is the revenue challenges are coming from much lower margin areas in terms of our business. Kathy, anything to add? Kathy N. Waller - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: No, I would say that those are the reasons, Muhtar. I would say probably you are picking up the fact that we do have more difficult comps in the back half for some of the things that Muhtar mentioned, but we are confident that we will still be on our guidance. Ahmet Muhtar Kent - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: Yeah, we're overall very confident that the changes in marketing, the strategy on innovation pipeline, the One Brand strategy, which is just at the beginning, the promotions that we have in store in the summer around the Olympics, the price/mix expansion that we've experienced in quarter two, all of that we feel play very into the equation and feel, give us confidence in the back half that there are likely more challenging comps in the back half that we can actually cycle them and achieve them going forward and feel confident that we can. Dara W. Mohsenian - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC: Okay, great. Thanks.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Ali Dibadj, Bernstein. Your line is open. Ali Dibadj - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC: Hey, guys. Ahmet Muhtar Kent - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: Good morning. Kathy N. Waller - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Hi. Ali Dibadj - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC: Just a couple of clarifications; one is on back to guidance, and, look, if comparable currency neutral income, excuse me, before taxes is still in the 6% to 8% range for 2016 relative to Q1 guidance, so you gave that same guidance in Q1, and the structural move only went from negative 3% to 4%, to negative 4%, so, like a 50 basis points change there, currency is still a 8% to 9% drag. I guess I'm confused about what's driving the EPS guidance effectively down by two points at the midpoint. So what's going on between profit before tax and the EPS to drag it down another two points? Because the only thing that seems like it's changing is the structural, in what you've told us, relative to Q1. That's my first question. I have another one, if you permit me. Kathy N. Waller - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Okay, Ali. So basically, it's in the rounding. So, yes, we gave comparable currency neutral guidance on EPS of 4% to 6%, and that was comparable currency neutral. So then when you either take out another rounded point of structural, so it rounded down, but it's really is a rounding point of structural. And then you take out currency, that gets you basically in the actual numbers, if you take out only a point of structural, gets you to 3% to 6%, but then it's in the rounding, so that's…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Nik Modi of RBC Capital Markets. Your line is open.

Nik Modi - RBC Capital Markets LLC

Analyst · RBC Capital Markets. Your line is open

Yeah, thanks for the question. Just two quick ones for me, there is a lot of stuff going on at Coke right now, international organization management, refranchising at an accelerated pace. I'm just curious if you can give us some clarity on maybe how much of the volume issue this quarter was partly related to disruption. And then, just on the price/mix, I mean, it's pretty good number. We've seen a kind of 3% price/mix a couple of times over the past two years. Just curious on what you think the sustainability of that magnitude of price/mix is as we think out the next one to two years. James Quincey - President & Chief Operating Officer: Sure. Let me start. I don't think any of the unit case pressure in the second quarter was due to the reorganization. I think the trends on unit cases, and let me just throw out another way of looking at it, has started at the beginning of the year. I think it's probably one of the few times we've seen the developed and our developing countries grow volume and actually seen the emerging markets decline in aggregate. I know we only put out the numbers by groups. But if you look at developed companies and developing economies, you see volume growth in both those blocks of countries. So in the end, our business, when you take the segmented roles, we've got volume growth and price/mix growth in developed and developing countries, which is very positive in terms of the long-term trajectory of the business. North America has got multi-years of making that work at the revenue line, so that's very strong. The volume weakness is all in the emerging markets, and it's all concentrated in a few of the emerging markets. It's big in some of those markets, but it's very concentrated. And the people then on the country levels are all largely still the same and working on these problems. So hopefully, that gives you a little insight on where the volume weakness is, but I don't think it has anything to do with the reorganization. In fact, I think the reorganization is helping us bring some refreshed views and some experience on what to do in emerging market weakness going forward in the downhill this year and into the future. And then on the price/mix, 3% is a good result. I think we've always talked about our long-term growth model calls for 4% to 6% revenue growth. And we see a balanced split between volume and price/mix into the future. So that gives you a 2% to 3% for price/mix as the component of the long-term growth. And also, 3% is a strong result. Long may it live. For the long-term growth model, we're looking for 4% to 6% in a balanced way.

Nik Modi - RBC Capital Markets LLC

Analyst · RBC Capital Markets. Your line is open

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Mark Swartzberg of Stifel. Your line is open. Mark Swartzberg - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.: Yeah, thanks. Good morning, everyone. Kathy N. Waller - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Morning. Mark Swartzberg - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.: Two questions, one on Europe specifically, James, I guess I am surprised Spain was down in the quarter. You cited weather, but it's been doing pretty well, so what is going on in Spain beyond weather? And can you give us any color on Great Britain, because Europe overall had a nice sequential – or at least did better than where consensus was, so looking for some color there? And then, Kathy, on FX, really no change in your FX view for the year. Can you remind us how you're hedged on some key currencies and how that might play out, the duration of those hedges and what those currencies are? James Quincey - President & Chief Operating Officer: Sure. On Europe, I think Europe got a little bit better this quarter. There are things weighing on our business. I'm not a big fan of calling out weather as a driver of performance. The weather occurs, for good or for bad, all around the world. Now, in the case of Spain and also France, at kind of that end of the Mediterranean, it was particularly poor in the middle part of the quarter. So that's really what's driving what's going on in the Spanish business and also it impacted the French business. So we see Europe getting a little bit better. I mean, we had some good results out of Germany. And, as you said, some sequential improvement out of GB cycling out of some of the supply chain problems and as…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Judy Hong of Goldman Sachs. Your line is open. Judy E. Hong - Goldman Sachs & Co.: Thank you. Good morning. James Quincey - President & Chief Operating Officer: Morning. Judy E. Hong - Goldman Sachs & Co.: I wanted to go back and follow up on the price/mix question. And clearly, the 3% is a good number, but obviously you're benefiting from pretty high inflationary markets. So I just wanted to better understand how much of this is really coming from your segmentation, the revenue segmentation strategy versus the price growth that you're seeing in inflationary markets, so any granularity that you can give us would be helpful. And then a little bit related to that, I think the flat volume growth that you've seen this quarter, I can't recall the last time you had this kind of volume trend. So, again, how much of this is really a function of your strategy to focus more on revenue and not chase unprofitable volume growth and if this is something that you'd be willing to accept for some period of time? Ahmet Muhtar Kent - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: Judy, good morning, again. It's Muhtar. First, I think James talked in detail about where the volume shortfalls were coming from and specifically related to certain large emerging markets that drove that number, and so that's related to Brazil. That's related to China being the large ones, but also Russia. All of those emerging markets that used to have better disposable incomes, better macro conditions, basically drove some of that. And going forward, certainly, we expect some improvement in that area. So that's number one. Number two, I think important to note that, again, mentioned that the developed markets grew and developing markets…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Bryan Spillane, Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Your line is open.

Bryan D. Spillane - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Analyst

Hi. Good morning, everyone. Ahmet Muhtar Kent - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: Morning.

Bryan D. Spillane - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Analyst

Just two quick ones, one, for James, just you've talked a lot I think on this call about some of the short-term things that have affected organic sales and kind of changes, I guess, sequentially in the environment since the start of the year. Can you just update us on kind of what your view for the industry forecast is, maybe not so much for this year but just over the medium-term, has there been any change in terms what you think the non-alcohol ready-to-drink beverage industry is going to grow over the medium-term? And then, second question, just you had mentioned Coke FEMSA earlier and it looks like you've got an agreement with them to negotiate on a preferred basis. Could you just sort of expand upon that a little bit? Are they exclusively looking at some of these territories or is it a matter that they're just getting a first look? Thank you. James Quincey - President & Chief Operating Officer: Sure. I think in your first question, I mean, our medium-term outlook for the industry hasn't really changed. We're still expecting robust growth in the industry in the long-term, driven by the disposal income, urbanization, the middle class, innovation. We see these things expanding. Now, we've talked about that being in the 5% sort of ballpark and then probably in the next few years, talked about it being in the 4%. So we do see it coming back over time. But we do see industry growth slightly moderated in the short-term, as we talked a little bit about in some of the previous conferences. Now, you did ask the question, which kind of seemed short to me because I think I would – give me a second to just re-underline from our point of view, the biggest…

Bryan D. Spillane - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Analyst

Okay. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. And we'll take our last question from Vivien Azer of Cowen & Company. Your line is open. Vivien Azer - Cowen & Co. LLC: Hi. Good morning. Thank you for the question. Ahmet Muhtar Kent - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: Hi. Vivien Azer - Cowen & Co. LLC: So as I look at some of the disclosure in the press release, it seems like you've broken from convention a little bit, a lot less brand disclosure, Trademark Coca-Cola only called out in North America. You guys aren't breaking out sparkling and stills anymore. So I'm just curious if we can get a little more color on Trademark Coke outside of North America and China, and also whether the change in convention speaks to a broader shift in terms of how you're thinking about balancing volumes across your portfolio? Thank you. James Quincey - President & Chief Operating Officer: Yeah, I think, yes, I mean, in part, please read into this that we're moving the business to more of a revenue focus. I mean, absolutely under the heading everything communicates, that is part of what we're trying to say. We believe in our segmented revenue approach. It's not that we have forgotten about volume or don't believe it's an underlying driver in the long-term, particularly in the emerging markets of what's going to create the business over the long-term, but as we look at places like North America and some of the other developed markets, clearly, we're going after more of a revenue strategy that's driven by smaller packages, by some pricing actions, so we do want to call out that perhaps the best way to think about health of the business going into the future is the revenue growth. And that's where I think what we're trying to say is, not just the beverage industry, the sparkling industry category and brand Coke all remain healthy in terms of revenue growth. All three of those are growing revenue globally, and we continue to see good attraction both in the U.S. in terms of sparkling revenue growth and internationally in terms of sparkling revenue growth. Vivien Azer - Cowen & Co. LLC: Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. And I would like to turn the call back to Muhtar Kent for closing remarks.