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Coca-Cola FEMSA, S.A.B. de C.V. (KOF)

Q4 2015 Earnings Call· Tue, Feb 23, 2016

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Coca Cola FEMSA's Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2015 conference call. As a reminder, today's conference is being recorded and all participants are in a listen-only mode. At the request of the Company, we will open the conference up for questions and answers after the presentation. During this conference call, management may discuss certain forward-looking statements concerning Coca Cola FEMSA's future performance and should be considered as good faith estimates made by the Company. These forward-looking statements reflect management's expectations and are based on currently available data. Actual results are subject to future events and uncertainties which can materially impact the Company's actual performance. At this time, I will now turn the conference over to Mr. Hector Treviño, Coca Cola FEMSA's Chief Financial Officer. Please go ahead, Mr. Treviño. Hector Treviño: Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us to discuss our fourth quarter and full year 2015 results. Our Company closed this year on a high note; building on our strong performance in 2014 we delivered a solid set of comparable results for 2015, supported by the continued consumer recovery in Mexico despite prevailing consumer weakness in Brazil, continuous operating and economic complexity of Venezuela and ongoing currency volatility across our markets. In 2015, our consolidated revenue growth was driven by our pricing power and flexibility in every quarter, together with our increased transactions. We’ve continued to work, outperform our volume growth in key markets such as Mexico, Columbia, Argentina and Central America. Thanks to our proactive currency hedging and procurement trafficking a favorable raw material price environment for most of the year and our breaking discipline in every franchise, we continued to deliver improved bottom line results, expanding margins in almost every country. For the full year our consolidated comparable revenues…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. [Operator Instructions] And we’ll take our first question from Luca Cipiccia with Goldman Sachs.

Luca Cipiccia

Analyst · Goldman Sachs

Hi, good morning. Thanks for taking my question. I wanted to follow up on two markets, one on Columbia, maybe if you can give us more background on the positive volume momentum that you keep maintaining there? And how do you expect that to trend in 2016, but also what is driving in terms of execution in terms of pricing strategy, in terms of market share dynamics maybe that would be helpful? And then secondly, on surprisingly we keep saying volumes in Brazil suffering. You are going to entry probably easier comps now in 2016, so just wondering whether you starting seeing some degree of a flow in the volume performance there in terms of growth, in terms of outlook for this year and you keep reiterating or highlighting how market share trends have actually been supportive, so how do we reconcile that with the type of volume decline we continue to see? Hector Treviño: Good morning, Luca. Well, let me start, in Mexico I think that we have been looking at a consumers that has been recovering, the consumer confident and in a way as I mentioned during this speech, remittances and some of the indicators we look at the retail operations that have been reporting recently, we see a good numbers in economy [ph]. So I feel that the name of the game in Mexico for these coming years is to continue to deliver affordability to our consumers in some of the areas that we still need to provide an affordable growth. And for us we able to continue increasing prices to compensate not only the inflation rate but also the affects of some of the internal costs that we have as you know is good portion of our raw materials are dollar denominated and which are being…

Luca Cipiccia

Analyst · Goldman Sachs

No, absolutely. Thank you. Thank you very much. Maybe just a very quick on Brazil. Your market share improvement, so that’s going having to do with pricing given -- or you seeing elements of trading down for consumers somehow switching to other brands or other products at lower price points? How do you reconcile your market share gains with the weaker consumer and the risk of trading down maybe in some categories? Hector Treviño: I think the current market share is -- and [Indiscernible] times we see volumes for this month of January, as I mentioned that we have a high single-digit volume decline. I’m not worried about market share. But whenever we see that we have a delay releasing that. We receive information and then we see again corners where we have a very high market share and I’m taking a number of flavors, increasing a little bit market share because of the quality staff that I described. And then you have these and all of this growing market share. So it’s a clear signal that the industry is shading very close or similarly to our performance, which again is an indication that the consumer is still injured than we start to one of our focus. Okay.

Luca Cipiccia

Analyst · Goldman Sachs

Thank you. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Next, we will hear from Fernando Ferreira with Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Mr. Ferreira, your line is open.

Fernando Ferreira

Analyst · Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Mr. Ferreira, your line is open

Hello. Can you hear me?

Operator

Operator

Yes. Please go ahead.

Fernando Ferreira

Analyst · Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Mr. Ferreira, your line is open

Hi. Good morning. Hector, I had two questions please if I may. First one, I’d like to hear a little bit more on your price mix expectations in three countries, Colombia, Argentina and Brazil in 2016. Given the weaker currencies in these three countries, how do you feel about -- and the higher inflation of this divide, how do you feel about pricing there? And then second question, I have to ask about the review. As you were franchising last week, James Quincey was very focused on the acceleration that Coke wants to do on the refranchising plans in the U.S. right and how do you feel about this new model where they agree to sell the production assets as well and if you have any updates on that front? Thank you. Hector Treviño: Good morning, Fernando. I think that -- and let me give you a general comment for all the franchisees, not only Colombia, Argentina and Brazil. I think that you have [indiscernible] and basically for the last two years, cost is starting to report transactions. And I think that there is a very important element here that we believe that we are in a much better alignment with the Coca-Cola Company in the fact of looking at revenues, transactions and not so much gallons or volume. So volume is important, market share numbers are important but share price is also probably more relevant. So, our plans for 2016, basically calls for trying to continue to improve the price mix formula in each of our countries. In areas where we have high inflation as in the case, Argentina, Brazil and I know that Venezuela is not that important but Venezuela is also a country where we have very high inflation. We are trying to at least keep up…

Fernando Ferreira

Analyst · Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Mr. Ferreira, your line is open

Great. Thank you, Hector.

Operator

Operator

The next question comes from Antonio González with Credit Suisse. Antonio González: Hi. Good morning, Hector and team and congratulations on the results. I have just two quick questions. First, on the write-up of the release on your equity accounts, I wanted to ask a, is it mostly Venezuela, or is there anything else say on the Brazil acquisitions of Spaipa, Fluminense that is relevant? And second just, I guess technically, why did you decide to not take the hit through the P&L and just do it directly in the balance sheet? So that’s my first question. And then secondly, I just wanted to ask very quickly. You did some comments earlier on the margins that you expect for Mexico, et cetera. I just wanted to confirm that overall, when you look at all of the markets, do you think that given the currency depreciation in Mexico, Brazil, Argentina and so forth, you will be able to maintain a flattish or increasing margins on a consolidated basis this year? Thanks, Hector. Hector Treviño: Good morning, Antonio. Let me follow the first question of the balance sheet item. What we have there is a relative translation. Basically, we have to do with all the translational effects with different countries due to Mexican peso. So for 2015 and we have Brazil, Argentina, Colombia and Venezuela, depreciating the currencies more than the Mexican peso. When we translate those numbers into Mexican pesos, we have this effect which is basically a balance sheet item. Everything that has to do with balance sheet accounts, the translational effect goes into the equity. If at P&L -- longer than it effected devaluation, very close to our P&L. I don’t know if that was your question. This is the number in the equity where we have -- and…

Operator

Operator

Next, we will hear from Carlos Laboy with HSBC. Mr. Laboy, your line is open.

Carlos Laboy

Analyst · HSBC. Mr. Laboy, your line is open

Hello. Can you hear me now?

Operator

Operator

Yes, we can.

Carlos Laboy

Analyst · HSBC. Mr. Laboy, your line is open

Two questions relating to Brazil, Hector, please. The first one is can you comment on, give us an update on how long you think it will take you to get price compliance in Brazil up to the national average of the entire system? And second of all, whatever evidence can you share with us of improved point-of-sale execution in Brazil? The reason I asked the second question is because we see volume declines of 5.5%, but 8% decline in transactions, which would seem to indicate that there is difficulty in the traditional trade and it’s hard to tell from the outside how much of that is the economy and how much of it is some of the execution measures you are putting into place and yet taking traction? Hector Treviño: Good morning, Carlos. I think that, as I mentioned, I believe it’s one of the last conference calls, we have -- there are positive things about being in Sao Paulo because it’s a very large concentration of people in this modern age. And similar to Mexico series, it brings some efficiencies to sales force, distribution and supply chain. The difficult part would be in the capital feel about the country is that where all the competitors are pressured in the fields of -- and [Technical Difficulty]. We are tooling some of the price points and let me give you some examples. You interrogate and talk about the one, two, three price points, market price points to the consumer given the devaluation of the Brazilian reais, plus inflation that we are seeing in our costs. It’s very difficult to maintain for example the one reais in price points. So, we are improving that from 1 to 125. In some cases, you will see the traditional stage is very most -- and…

Carlos Laboy

Analyst · HSBC. Mr. Laboy, your line is open

Thanks, Hector. Hector Treviño: Thank you, Carlos.

Operator

Operator

Next, we will hear from Andrew Teixeira with JPMorgan.

Andrew Teixeira

Analyst · JPMorgan

Hi. Hello. Thanks for taking the question. Just to -- I think we extensively worked on the margin fronts but I just wanted to get a little bit of color on the revenue front if you think that. Obviously, you have easier comps in the fourth quarter. So how are you seeing 2016 as decided like with a tougher compare and that’s specifically on Mexico? And then obviously, Brazil, I’m assuming with what you just described hasn’t been an easier market now despite your market share gains of course? I mean, what I want to also to explore, if you can comment a little bit of the refranchising of the U.S., which apparently has had some changes recently to group I guess. If you can comment, if you’ve seen indeed an acceleration of interest or movement there and lastly on the hedges, it sounds like you have had some hedges but if you can comment on how it has and so part of your explanation that you aim to have, aim to have like a flat margin, if that has to do with the like more consist of hedging through the regions? And lastly, if you can touch on Argentina, if you’ve seen better volume trends there given the shortfall in the fourth quarter? Thank you. Hector Treviño: Good morning, Andrew. I think that -- let me start with Mexico topline, I think that if you look at what’s happened in Mexico over the last two years, we’ve had the tax, volumes came down reportedly close to close to 5%. We have grown volumes not relevant, that we have in 2013, but we are very close to those levels and we are seeing the year for next year where we see some volumes increase in Mexico very close to these type of loss in Mexico, so somewhere around 2.5 to 3% working growth but that will be my call for Mexico. We are still [Indiscernible] again the consumer is not there, it's not responding to a lot of the promotions that we have, but the trend that we are see is the consumer moving as I was explaining the previous questions to big packages to more deserved packages away from the one way packages and we are moving to return our packages also which is basically a very clear signal to the consumers looking for our growth but they are looking for the affordable price on that. So…

Andrew Teixeira

Analyst · JPMorgan

So you mean in Mexico or the line is not very clear. Hector Treviño: Sorry, no I was -- in Mexico what I am seeing is I mean our consumers. In Mexico, what I was saying is I am seeing that the consumer, a better consumer environment this 2016 and therefore we will see some kind of volume growth in that the GDP, that's my summary for Mexico. In the yield, I think that the consumer, he’s suffering a lot from as you very well know from the oil increases that they have in the electricity transportation and all of those very basic rates [ph], the evaluation of the values is very large, so and the consumer has a lot of debt, so my view is that perhaps even we will see volumes are very similar to what we saw in 2015, maybe a slight increase over that. I think that the industry is expecting something similar to that, and even though we have been suffering in volumes, we have been able to maintain or increase market share in all of the markets. So the name of the name -- the name of the game in the fuel is to have an affordable growth in front of the consumer, maintain some of the magic price points so that the single serve presentations continue to have some traction. And therefore we are adjusting those presentations to smaller sizes, but the treatment [ph] is that magic price. So with your consumer, that is not necessarily with a lot of resources to spend on consumer’s goods growth, but we will see importance, either flat or a slight increase in versus 2015. With respect to the…

Andrew Teixeira

Analyst · JPMorgan

[Indiscernible] right. Sorry that would be a market segment. No I was just saying that, that will continue to evade market share gains in Brazil, because it is obviously declining. Hector Treviño: Yes, yes as we mentioned we have been having very good performance in that front of the market share from remaining months and now we think that we will continue to gain market shares in Brazil.

Andrew Teixeira

Analyst · JPMorgan

Okay great. Okay, and then on the hedges just to clarify that is that are you putting more hedge in places than before because some of the comments, and I know you extensively explained, so I apologize that I want to go back to the cost side, but the hedges you continue to renew those or even increasing in some of the countries, I mean or hedging out for just the price of sugar, is that a fair assumption? Hector Treviño: Well, I think that in general what I can say is this is as I mentioned, we moved and let me give some examples. For the following three months, we basically moved between 40% to 70% of our needs should be hedged. We don't like the exchange rate as if for a simple moment of some of the currency. We moved to the lower plant, closer to the 40%. We would see that there is an opportunity that we see a further deterioration of the changes we move closer to the market. During 2015, because of the we were starting with this volatility, we were closer to the higher side of our dispatch. During 2016, we have a smaller, we have a novel amount of [Indiscernible] as a percentage of our need, but I think that these are very reasonable and I was mentioning in the previous questions the VLID [ph] in Mexico we are on 43% of our needs. For the full year in Brazil we are around 50%, in Columbia we are around 30% and Argentina we are very close to 60%. In Argentina that was one notification where we started a few months ago started to get some of this in 2016, because we were seeing disappear in this evaluations, so we were moving ahead very…

Andrew Teixeira

Analyst · JPMorgan

No sorry, I didn't mean to interrupt you, but I just thank you simply you know. Hector Treviño: Well thank you. No I was going to say, that answers your questions. Thank you then.\

Andrew Teixeira

Analyst · JPMorgan

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Next we will hear from Alex Robarts with Citi.

Alex Robarts

Analyst · Citi

Hi, thanks for taking my question. I wanted to go back first to Mexico the comments I appreciate about your view on volume this year, but I maybe just sticking to the top line outlook in Mexico the other side is price. And you’ve done a good job in the last quarter and frankly last year in getting average pricing on a comparable basis couple points above the inflation. As you think about the better consumer in Mexico, as you qualify them this year, how do you reconcile the need to continue to pass on the dollar, COGS [ph] pressures but at the same time as you said earlier there are some areas where you need to bring in some affordability, where you feel, I guess in the portfolio of Mexico that you are higher than you like to be pricing wise. I mean, would it be fair to assume that it's in the jugs and in the non-carbs where perhaps you want to bring the affordability to the customer and if those are the areas again how do we think about just supposing that with the need to and have handled this internal cost inflation that you talk about which is in large extent related to the FX. So just kind of thinking about the ability to get pricing beyond inflation this year in Mexico and where the areas you are looking to inject the affordability? Hector Treviño: Good morning Alex, I mean I think that your questions comprise very well a lot of the dynamics that we have in Mexico. As I mentioned in the previous question there are different magic growth of this industry. Mexico -- environment because it has all competitors converging shares that there are competitors in Mexico that are not pricing in order --…

Alex Robarts

Analyst · Citi

For sure, for sure. And that was a very comprehensive, so the 2.5 for the kind of GDP type of volume growth in Mexico was associated with pricing I had in place. Now that that’s set fair and clear and thanks for that. The second question is on Asia, and I guess our read on coke bottler consolidation kind of suggest that this is an area where we could see some stepped up activity on the M&A front. And I think back three years ago to what Carlos [ph] said on the outset of your deal in the Philippines, that other markets could present themselves so this specific question on Asia is given as you said the transformation has been successful in the Philippines three years since the deal since you started there, does it make sense for you to contemplate taking ownership sooner than later in the Philippines, when we think about kind of Atlantis [ph] speech or seeming to be getting asset lights quicker rather than later. And if that is the case, is it something that you think about in the next 12 to 24 months and when you look at big, it's clear that some other interesting markets on that list, Myanmar Vietnam, kind of comment a little bit about Coca-Cola FEMS interest there which I think was implied by Carlos’s comments three years ago. So essentially, your cost view over the next few years in Asia, that's kind of the question. Any color would be great thank you. Hector Treviño: Thank you Alex. I think that the story in Asia is as follows. We clearly entered the Philippine markets as a way of -- and I feel that I should say also for the Coca-Cola Company for us and the Coca-Cola Company to test our…

Alex Robarts

Analyst · Citi

Yes, yes that's -- that's very clear. Thank you for that. Hector Treviño: Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Our final question will come from Jeronimo de Guzman with Morgan Stanley.

Jeronimo de Guzman

Analyst · Morgan Stanley

Hi, thanks for taking my question. I wanted to follow up first on the Philippines, what I noticed was that your sales are growing less than the volumes. So I just wanted to understand what is driving that, are you having to be more promotional to driving that volume growth or is there something else that's driving that? Hector Treviño: Good morning, Jeronimo. 2015 was as I said is a year – let me go one year behind, 2014 we saw first a very, very competitive environment because we launched this presentation, it needs more on the resources [Indiscernible] but specially we need more again the game changer because we got the introduction of our one way presentation. That 2014 competition reviewed the price of the returnable presentation and that process to adjust the prices in downward in 2014. 2015 we have improved the prices, first all the -- has moved in the direction of packages that our more affordable because the competition is still there. I think that Philippines and that’s why I was referring to the profitability, the Philippine market now starting – as I mentioned we are doing a lot of transformational things in terms of portfolio develop maybe supply chain which have a lot of indication that we have develop right track on that. There is still the market where we need to grow volumes in order to get a better traction of the profitability. So, further discussion that we have for 2015 is to maintain price point at an attractive level and try to get embedded model number. As a reflection just it also surprised to everyone, January numbers were very, very good, very good, it was close to 20% and little more. I don’t think that January will then repeat every single month going forward, but we are achieving that by maintaining price points that are very compelling. I think that whenever we gain in the Philippine is to get traction with the volume, when I say traction mean its increasing volume, I’m trying to maintain prices with inflation. I know that we’ve got a lot of pressure from our competitors because they are important in prices [Indiscernible] but I feel that we have now a great – introduce a correct flavors, the correct prices, the correct price points and I think that we have correct efficient to start bringing revenue management initiatives and efficiencies in the operation that will be a little better profitability. The profitability in Philippines is below and you see EBITDA levels in financial statement. So I hope that I answered your question.

Jeronimo de Guzman

Analyst · Morgan Stanley

Yes. That was very helpful. Thank you. And then follow-up on Mexico, what I saw was the operating expenses, you had pressure in the fourth quarter. I know for the year it was – you still efficiency. But I wanted to know if there was anything specific that was driving those – that pressure given that it was a better quarter in terms of volume? And then with Centers of Excellence I was just wondering if there was any specific areas where you see the most opportunities in Mexico for greater efficiencies? Hector Treviño: Yes. We do not have specifics on all of the SG&A. We do have some dollar dominated expenses specially would reflect to IT. Anything that relates to IT is dollar rate, even if you are buying from services from local suppliers, most of the big companies have operations like HPU or SAP, we have operations in Mexico, but the pricing are dollar rated. There is nothing especially dollar rate, already done and approximately currency fluctuation on some of these expenses. The Center of Excellence, I do this expectation that we’ll start to see better efficiencies, how we manage some of seasonality to some examples. Instead of having production plant in each of plants we could have centralize in whatever we decide to go at more of first share service. We are doing that now in Mexico. We having excess of production planning centralized in Mexico and do that or the production plans are at the work around different countries. At the same time the country say about maintenance routine that there being planned with the people and people that are expertise. So in a way we are reducing the work force of all the different production and different centers and having a group of experts doing…

Jeronimo de Guzman

Analyst · Morgan Stanley

Thanks. That's helpful and then just one last question and just kind of reading through some of the interest expense from the -- and in general, just kind of a broader question of with the exposure that you have to U.S. dollar debt being 32% of your debt. I mean how comfortable do you -- given the volatility in FX. What's your comfort level with this kind of exposure and then do you see any kind of debt management initiatives going forward to kind of change that mix? Hector Treviño: [Technical difficulty] Hello, Jeronimo I don’t know what’s happened, but we got disconnected. And I don’t know if everyone heard what I was saying about the last Jeronimo question. Basically Jeronimo when on your premix [ph] we have been meeting with the board of directors yesterday and the finance committee reconfirmed the limit that we have of selling maximum $700 million worth. Right now, we have $650 million worth of exposure. We feel comfortable that what -- I mean the site of the company and the loan levels that we have, and until the next Board meeting that is at the end of April, this is the maximum amount that we have and I will [technical difficulty] $650 million maximum exposure during this quarter. Okay.

Jeronimo de Guzman

Analyst · Morgan Stanley

Okay. Sounds good, thank you very much. Hector Treviño: Thank you but sorry for the trouble during communication.

Operator

Operator

That will conclude the question and answer session. Mr. Treviño, I’ll turn the conference over to you for closing comments. Hector Treviño: Okay thank you for your interest in Coca Cola FEMSA. And as always, me and the team are available to answer any of your remaining questions. And thank you gentlemen for the [Indiscernible]. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

That does conclude today's conference call. Thank you for your participation.