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The Kroger Co. (KR)

Q3 2024 Earnings Call· Thu, Dec 5, 2024

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning. And welcome to The Kroger Co. Third Quarter 2024 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] Please note this event is being recorded. I’d now like to turn the conference over to Robert Quast, Senior Director, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Robert Quast

Analyst

Good morning. Thank you for joining us for Kroger’s third quarter 2024 earnings call. I am joined today by Kroger’s Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Rodney McMullen; and Interim Chief Financial Officer, Todd Foley. Before we begin, I want to remind you that today’s discussions will include forward-looking statements. We want to caution you that such statements are predictions and actual events or results can differ materially. A detailed discussion of the many factors that we believe may have a material effect on our business on an ongoing basis is contained in our SEC filings. The Kroger Company assumes no obligation to update that information. After our prepared remarks, we look forward to taking your questions. In order to cover a broad range of topics from as many of you as we can, we ask that you please limit yourself to one question and one follow-up question if necessary. I will now turn the call over to Rodney.

Rodney McMullen

Analyst

Thank you, Rob. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us today. Before we begin, I’d like to provide an outline of our discussion topics this morning. I will start by sharing a recap of our third quarter performance and highlight how we continue to advance our go-to-market strategy, which powers our value creation model and drives long-term sustainable growth for our shareholders. Then Todd will cover our financial results for the third quarter and walk through updates to our full year guidance. And finally, I will close with some comments on our pending merger with Albertsons. Turning first to our performance, we delivered strong third quarter sales results led by our pharmacy and digital performance, which reflects the versatility of our model. Customer engagement remains strong. Our convenient, Seamless shopping experience, along with incredible customer value through low prices, personalized offers and great quality Our Brand products, drove growth in both total and loyal households. As we entered the last quarter of 2024, we are focused on providing the quality, Fresh and affordable products that make holiday celebrations special. Customer spending habits continue adjusting to current macroeconomic factors. As inflation normalizes, our premium and mainstream households are feeling more confident and are returning to their pre-pandemic shopping patterns more quickly. Mainstream households are the primary driver of our positive customer engagement trends. While overall consumer sentiment remains low, expectations are improving, which positions us well for the holidays and into next year. As we said, near-term, some customers are managing macroeconomic uncertainty. Spending from budget-conscious households remain under pressure, as the effects of multiyear inflation and higher interest rates have had a larger impact on these households. Therefore, we expect it will take longer for these households to fill the benefits of economic improvement. Kroger is delivering on…

Todd Foley

Analyst

Thanks, Rodney, and good morning, everyone. Kroger’s third quarter results reflect the durability of our model with strong pharmacy results that helped offset lower fuel profitability as we cycled strong fuel results from a year ago. As we head into the final quarter of the year, we are narrowing the ranges on our identical sales without fuel, adjusted FIFO operating profit and adjusted EPS guidance. The strength of our model gives us confidence in our ability to deliver on this full year guidance. Before I walk through our third quarter financial results, I would like to start off by covering a couple of items from the quarter that affected our financial results. First, during the third quarter, we finalized the sale of our Kroger Specialty Pharmacy business for $464 million. The sale reduced total company sales in the third quarter by approximately $340 million, compared to the same period last year, and annualized sales will be approximately $3 billion lower going forward. KSP was a low-margin business. As a result, the sale of the business increased both Kroger’s gross margin and operating general and administrative costs as a rate of sales. It had no material effect on operating profit. Second, on a year-over-year basis, the combined hurricane season and port strike had approximately a 20-basis-point favorable impact on sales as customers stocked up in anticipation of these events. These events had an unfavorable impact on OG&A. Together, this did not have a material impact on total operating profit. I’ll now take you through our third quarter financial results. We achieved identical sales without fuel growth of 2.3%. As Rodney mentioned earlier, identical sales without fuel were led by strong pharmacy and digital sales. We’re also encouraged by the continuation of positive customer metric trends, including increases in total and loyal…

Rodney McMullen

Analyst

Thanks, Todd. Before I open it up to Q&A, I’d like to speak briefly about our pending merger with Albertsons. First, I would like to express my appreciation for our associates and their incredible commitment. It has been a long journey and our associates have done an excellent job serving customers and running the day-to-day operations of our business while also preparing for the merger. I would like to extend a special thanks to those who supported the litigation in federal and state courts, both the associates who testified and the teams who prepared a compelling case about the meaningful and measurable benefits of the merger. Our teams are ready to ensure a Seamless transition for our customers and associates from day one. It is exciting to see the complementary strengths of both Kroger and Albertsons organizations, and we look forward to combining these strengths to provide customers with an even better experience. As we await the court rulings and the regulatory challenges to the merger, we remain confident in the facts and the strengths of our position. The retail industry continues to be more competitive and we know how our customers shop. Every day they are making decisions on where to eat and where to buy their groceries. They shop at a wide range of competitors, from Costco to Amazon to Dollar Stores, and they eat at restaurants. They shop digitally and brick-and-mortar. And as I’ve said before, we remain committed to closing the merger because it will provide meaningful and measurable benefits for customers, for associates and for communities across the country, and we look forward to bringing these commitments to life. Regardless of the outcome of the trials, Kroger is operating from a position of strength and we are optimistic about our future. Our business is more diverse than ever and our value creation model provides us with multiple ways to drive sustainable growth. Our strong free cash flow and strengthened balance sheet provides us with the ability to invest in our business and enhance shareholder value. With that, Todd and I look forward to taking your questions. Because we are still in litigation, we will not be taking questions on the merger this morning.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. [Operator Instructions] Our first question for today comes from Simeon Gutman of Morgan Stanley. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Simeon Gutman

Analyst

Good morning, Rodney, Todd. My question is on the P&L for 2024. If you take out the extra week lap and then you pull out some of the merger-related costs, the big ones, it looks like the core business is growing pretty nicely on EBIT and really nicely, potentially mid-single, even high single-digit percentage, and that’s despite lower fuel profitability and the environment’s been pretty tough. So first, is that a fair characterization and is it mixing the way you would have thought between the core business and the alternative? Thanks.

Todd Foley

Analyst

Great question, Simeon. Thanks for that and I think that’s a fair read on how you’ve described it. We were obviously very happy with the results that we’ve seen coming from not only the core business but inclusive of pharmacy, particularly pleased with the results we saw in pharmacy, you heard Rodney talk about today. So despite that lever in fuel giving us a headwind this quarter, we were pleased with the core growth coming from the core business and see that continuing. The mix relative to alternative and core business, I think the growth expectations that we have around the alternative profit business are relatively consistent to what we expected to see and so I think that those continue to be as balanced as we expected going into the quarter.

Rodney McMullen

Analyst

And longer term, as everyone knows, the alternative business -- profit businesses will continue to see a great opportunity and the margins on that business is meaningfully higher than the supermarket business, and the whole flywheel between our brick-and-mortar business and our Seamless business pickup and delivery is the engine behind driving that continuation there, which we’re very excited about.

Todd Foley

Analyst

That’s a great call, Rodney. We saw the digital growth again at low double-digit growth, which is an important part of the growth that you talked about, Simeon. And that, again, when you talk about mix in our business and our omnichannel, that low double-digit growth is right on what we expected and helps drive both the core business and the alternative profit as Rodney described.

Simeon Gutman

Analyst

And the one follow-up, this is more towards a comment Rodney made. All year, we talked about the mainstream, the premium and the lower end. It felt like there may have been an inflection whereas the mainstream has been resilient and the premium has been healthy. I thought your comments today on mainstream inflected a little more positively. I’m not sure if that’s reading too much in. Lower income sounds about the same. Curious if that’s fair.

Rodney McMullen

Analyst

Yeah. The mainstream customers certainly performed, connected with us better in the third quarter than the second quarter. How much of that is driven because of things we did and how much they’re just feeling better, we don’t know. Now they’re telling us they feel better. And certainly customers that are on a budget continue to be under a lot of strain and the accumulation of inflation and other aspects and higher interest rates continue to affect them more. And I think the other thing that’s always important to remember is, that customer in many cases are starting out in careers and things and they don’t have as many physical assets on a house or a little bit of savings and those things, and those -- inflation obviously affects that person a little harder than others. Thanks, Simeon.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Rupesh Parikh of Oppenheimer. Rupesh, your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Rupesh Parikh

Analyst

Good morning and thank you for taking my question. So just going back to your guidance, so you did narrow the operating profit ratio to the lower end of the range for the full year. So just curious what’s driving that.

Rodney McMullen

Analyst

Yeah. Todd, I’ll let you start.

Todd Foley

Analyst

Yeah. Well, with one quarter left, Rupesh, we wanted to try to narrow the range because there should be less variability in our expectations. When you look at the sales part of the guidance down at 1.2% to 1.5%, I think, that’s pretty consistent with what we’ve been thinking for the year. The midpoint on that range is a tick higher than I think what we had been thinking before. And frankly, when you look at where we expect to be in Q4, I think that’s right on how we’ve been thinking about it all year relative to all of that. Q3 actually is the one that was really strong and we talked about -- Rodney talked about the pharmacy and the digital growth there, particularly in the vaccine space. We were really pleased. We’ve been working hard to grow our vaccine business and we saw that throughout the quarters early in this year, but with Q3 being that key vaccine, the Super Bowl season for vaccines, we were really pleased to see that that growth continue and that it paid off in that point in time. So that’s where we saw Q3 being really strong and that Q4 guidance being really what we expected. When you look at it on the EPS side of our guidance through past again, narrow the range there. We took a nickel off the top side and the bottom side and really that midpoint of the range is pretty consistent with where we’ve been thinking about it for the year. As we think about that range and some of the key factors for that range in the fourth quarter, a couple of key things that we’re keeping an eye on. One is weather. We alluded to it in our prepared comments. There were several meaningful weather events a year ago that drove some benefits and we just don’t forecast weather on a forward-looking basis. So if we see the number and magnitude of weather events in the fourth quarter this year, I think that would be something that could push us towards the higher end of that range. And then the other one is fuel. And certainly we -- fuel tends to be pretty volatile and we’ve seen that this year and really we have fuel expectations to be pretty in line with where they were last year. And frankly, from a gallon trend and from a $0.01 per gallon trend in the fourth quarter, we’re pretty consistent sequentially from where we’ve been performing over the last few periods. So if we have variance in the fuel profitability, either positive or negative, I think that could lean us towards the top or the bottom end of that range, respectively.

Rodney McMullen

Analyst

Todd said this, but I think it’s important to just highlight it. If you look at the range for the year, fuel in the third quarter was a tougher quarter than what we expected it to be and that really relative to the top side. And the other thing that Todd mentioned, we don’t budget weather because we just don’t know. Obviously there’s been some major storms, but those storms haven’t been in places where we operate stores. So it really hasn’t affected us so far. And generally that’s a positive when we have weather because people eat at home as opposed to going to restaurants.

Rupesh Parikh

Analyst

Okay. And then my very quick follow-up question, just on the Boost membership, you added the Disney perk as well. Just overall, are you guys happy with the signups you’re seeing and the retention with that program?

Rodney McMullen

Analyst

I would say we’re very happy, but the thing that I guess I get more excited about is the potential, because it’s an incredible value for customers and customers love it and we have a high renewal rate and a high NPS score. So our job is to continue to educate more customers on it. So I’m really more excited about the opportunity going forward and the overall deeper connection with customers. So great question. Thanks, Rupesh.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Leah Jordan of Goldman Sachs. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Leah Jordan

Analyst

Good morning. Thank you for taking my question and thanks for the commentary on inflation this morning and how you’re thinking about it in the fourth quarter. But as you plan with your vendors and seeing if you can add more color on how you’re thinking about inflation into next year, what are you seeing across categories and hearing from those partners?

Rodney McMullen

Analyst

Yeah. No. A great question. Maybe still a little early to think about next year, but you think about where we were this year, obviously, coming into the year, we were coming out of that crazy disinflation that we had a year ago. And inflation has played out more or less the way we expected. It’s maybe a little bit less than what we expected, but it’s been relatively stable at just under 1%. Maybe even saw, I think, a slight step back in Q3 relative to Q2, which as we said, we expect to see for next year. As we look to next year at this point, looking at both some of the macro and governmental studies, as well as conversations with vendors. Again, it’s still early to tell. And we might see a slight expansion to inflation next year, but really don’t expect to see anything meaningfully different or inconsistent with what we’re kind of seeing right now with inflation.

Todd Foley

Analyst

We are continuing to see CPGs be a little more aggressive on trade dollars, and over time, that obviously affects inflation a little bit as well.

Leah Jordan

Analyst

Great. Thank you. And I just wanted to follow-up on some of your Fresh initiatives. I know you’ve been working on improving days of freshness in produce for a while, so great to see some improvement there. But it seems like the RFID tags within bakery is new to me. Just wanted more color there, what degree of lift are you seeing when you add that to the category? How many of your stores have it today and how should we think about the rollout over time?

Rodney McMullen

Analyst

Well, we are -- as I mentioned, we’re testing it. We’re happy with the initial result. The benefits are as much helping our associates be able to do their job a little bit easier. And it’s too early -- it’s early enough to be excited about the potential. It’s too early to say this much we can budget in terms of what we would do. But the thing that we’re excited about for our customers, it’s helping us make sure we have fresher product for the customer and stay in stock better. And it’s super exciting. We will look at other areas of the store to see what kind of opportunity it is. The cost per tag is still higher than we would like, so we still need to continue to work on focusing on the get the cost per tag down. But positive early results, really early in the process and excited about the potential. Thanks, Leah.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Ken Goldman of JPMorgan. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Ken Goldman

Analyst

Hi. Thank you. I wanted to follow-up on the topic of next year. I appreciate it’s too early for specifics and I’m not asking for any numbers. But to Simeon’s question, you agree that it’s a fair read that the core underlying business is doing very well. I think those are the words, despite when you ex out the merger cost and the digital mix and fuel and so forth. And you talked a little bit about inflation being sort of steady and predictable and consistent in that low-single-digit range. Are there any other unusual tailwinds or headwinds that we should consider just directionally as we think about next year? Just trying to get a sense for what would kind of throw you off from having another reasonably good year. You did say that operating profit would be up, but you didn’t kind of tell us how much and your longer term algo is 3% to 5%, of course?

Rodney McMullen

Analyst

And it would be way too early to tell you specifics, and obviously, we’re waiting for the ruling on the merger, which will affect guidance as well. The other thing that I guess from a positive standpoint that I’m excited about, in the third quarter, we opened or expanded the most number of stores that we’ve done. I think it’s actually in a quarter in seven years. And as you know, last year we talked about it that we will open more stores this year than we have in several years and we would expect to continue to open more stores. And so far, the stores that we’ve opened, we’re happy with the way they’re connecting with customers and we’re happy in terms of the volumes they’re creating and the early read on the profitability of the stores as well. So over time, we would hope that that would continue to be a tailwind, and obviously, on Seamless, we continue to see that as really critical to our five-year or 10-year future to be awesome there and we still have a lot of work to do to make where we’re indifferent, whether somebody shops with us online or in-store and we’ll continue to put a lot of effort there. In terms of headwind, Todd, I’ll let you add anything that you can think of.

Todd Foley

Analyst

I can’t think of anything unusual headwinds or tailwinds as we sit here today, frankly Ken. But going into next year, part of what has us optimistic and feeling good about the strength of our value creation model is a lot of the momentum we have in the things that are in our high growth areas today. We’ve talked about a lot of them already. It’s pharmacy, it’s our digital business, it’s our alternative profit. And we have good momentum in those spaces and are executing on those. And from a headwind standpoint, we’re going to continue to invest in the business. We’re going to invest in price. You’ve heard Rodney say it before. We assume every year is going to be more competitive than the last and that view hasn’t changed. And so we’ll continue to engage in customers, make sure we’re delivering value to them by investing in price and investing in their shopping experience and we’re committed to continue to invest in wages. So some of those are headwinds. They’re just the parts of our model that is we deliver the value in our model through all their different value propositions. We’re able to use that to invest in the business to keep the flywheel moving.

Ken Goldman

Analyst

Okay. Thank you for that. And then speaking about price investments, Rodney, you mentioned that CPGs continue to be a little bit more aggressive on trade dollars. Your largest competitor are in food retail. We’ll see if the judges agree that it’s a competitor or not, but your largest competitor in food retail had more kind of commentary last week or this week about how they would like to see more of those price investments from key vendors. Rodney, your tone, since I’ve known you has always been more sort of agnostic about that. If investors -- if your vendors don’t invest with that, you’ll be happy to sell customers more private label. I’m just curious where you stand in terms of, are you content with the level of price investment or are you more just sort of agnostic and saying, look, whatever our vendors want, it’ll play out either way beneficially for you.

Rodney McMullen

Analyst

Yeah. I guess a little bit of both. The -- if you look at tonnage growth in CPGs, there’s a lot of CPGs that cannot be satisfied with their tonnage growth. And I believe that trade dollars and being more aggressive on partnering with us to make sure the right customer gets access to those benefits is good long-term for the customer, a long-term benefit for both of us on tonnage. If they’re not willing to do that, it really gets back to the comment that we talked about. Our Brands and Todd and I both mentioned it had a strong quarter, the profitability of Our Brands is several hundred basis points higher than national brand. And if the CPGs are willing to continue to give up share to Our Brands we’re okay with that because what we find is once a customer tries Our Brand, the repeat rate of customers coming back is incredibly high because what they find is they have -- there’s no compromise on quality and they have a great value for the money. So, at the end of the day, the customer wins when they buy Our Brands, but it really is we try to run a business where the customer decides what they want to buy as opposed to forcing them to buy something. Thanks Ken.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Ed Kelly of Wells Fargo. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Ed Kelly

Analyst

Hi. Good morning, everyone.

Rodney McMullen

Analyst

Good morning.

Ed Kelly

Analyst

I’m curious about the gross margin. You’ve had a couple good quarters on the gross margin front. I think you admit this quarter was better than expected. How are you thinking about gross margin in Q4 and then, even like into, I don’t know, you’re not going to get next year, but sort of like the outlook for the gross margin. And I’m talking like ex-Spec Pharma divestiture and maybe just talk about the puts and takes around that?

Todd Foley

Analyst

Yeah. No. Great question, Ed. And I think you hit on a key part of thinking about it excluding KSP. We talked about, it was a strong quarter in gross margin and about half of that year-over-year benefit was a result of the divestiture. But the other piece of it really came, we highlighted both of, Rodney, layers and what Rodney was just talking about, what was our growth in Our Brands, where we continue to have Our Brands sales growth outpacing national brands and that is always going to drive solid margin expansion. And so that’s certainly what we saw again in the third quarter, very similar to what we saw in the second and then shrink had another nice quarter. So we’ve got cautiously optimistic on the progress we’re making there, but we are making progress on the shrink space that really helped us in the third. As we look to the fourth, I think, excluding KSP, I think overall we’ll probably be slightly favorable in the fourth, reflecting KSP when you, when you pull that out, I think, we’ll probably be relatively flat on that relative to some of the puts and takes. Again, if we over index in things like Our Brands and whatnot, but we may be a little bit favorable, but overall, I think we’ll be, we’ll be relatively consistent relatively flat year-over-year on the margins in Q4.

Rodney McMullen

Analyst

I totally agree with everything Todd said. And Todd said the big pieces, I would also add a couple of smaller pieces that’s helping on gross margin that should continue is if you look at our warehouse and transportation costs, continue to make some progress there and the customer continues to buy more value-added product and Fresh continues to grow as well. So those are things that help on mix and in addition to things that Todd talked about.

Ed Kelly

Analyst

And just to Rodney, a quick follow-up, this one’s for you. And you kind of hinted at it or talked about it, but Albertsons would be a transformational deal. How do you feel about Kroger’s position, if the deal is rejected and do you need to hunt for something else more transformational or is it just simply more prudent to double down on what you have and, and reward shareholders for their patients with returning capital?

Rodney McMullen

Analyst

Yeah. It’s a great question. If you look at the balance sheet capacity that we have, there’s probably no -- nothing else that would be transformational that would use the balance sheet capacity that we would have. So I don’t know that we would be out there trying to find what’s the next Albertsons. As you know and you just said it, we track -- we’ve always made sure that we don’t need to do mergers to make our business successful and that was one of the reasons that we’ve always been proud of what Kroger has done. We’re super excited about Albertsons and the potential, and we believe we will be able to add a ton of value for giving customers better value. The people there will be able to provide security and grow our business and create additional career opportunities and support communities, but if it doesn’t happen we’ll continue to go on. As you know, we always will continue to look at how ways to grow the business. Mergers is always one of those ways of growing the business. But we try to make sure that we only do a merger when it makes sense, and we’re not chasing something and we won’t get in a position where we are having to chase something. So great question, and thanks, Ed.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Michael Lasser of UBS. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Michael Lasser

Analyst

Good morning. Thank you so much for taking my question. As of the second quarter, Kroger had made a point in its presentation that it was on track to deliver more than 20% media growth this year and that line was removed this quarter. So is it right to interpret that the media growth, which is an important driver of the alternative revenue stream is starting to slow, perhaps, as there are more adverts -- net more platforms for advertisers to choose and direct its advertising dollars. And if that’s the case, how does Kroger accelerate that element of its algorithm in order to support the long-term outlook for the business?

Todd Foley

Analyst

Yeah. Let me start there, Michael. Thanks for the question. It’s a good call. We do still expect to see our retail media growth being that in that 20% range for the year. It’s still a fast growing part of our business and the outcomes that we’re seeing continue to demonstrate that we’re well positioned for that growth. As we look at those CPGs that are advertising with us, we see the outsized return on ad spend that they’re generating and so that’s why I say we’re able to demonstrate and we’re seeing those results. And not coincidentally, the sales for those CPGs at Kroger are strong and so I think the proof points continue to be there, but as you say, there’s a proliferation of options as everybody’s kind of got their own flavor of what this is. So I think we just need to continue to demonstrate that the CPGs, because I think the proof will be in the results.

Rodney McMullen

Analyst

Todd’s last point to me, and if CPGs are listening in, that’s the only reason why I’m adding on top. The CPGs that increased spending the most had the highest tonnage growth with us, which to me is, it shows you the power of our platform and Todd said it, I just wanted to double down on it.

Michael Lasser

Analyst

Okay. And my follow-up question is, what do you need to drive -- what do you need to happen in order to drive The Kroger to achieve the sales piece of its long-term algorithm in 2025? This year, there’s been a contribution from the GLP-1 drug, some storm-related spending, perhaps those won’t be as meaningful contributors next year. So is it that you would be banking on A, market share stabilizing and is that realistic; and B, some acceleration in inflation to offset what had been driving some of the comp this year?

Rodney McMullen

Analyst

Yeah. We would not be dependent on inflation and it’s really we continue to double down on the customer experience. And when we find that we improve the customer experience, our business follows that or the customer rewards us for that. And it’s -- it really gets back to you’ve heard us say it a million times Full, Fresh & Friendly. The other thing that we’re increasingly supporting is allocating capital to growth areas and that would be storing, obviously, continuation of Seamless or online business continues to have outside growth and then specific projects that support cost reductions and sales opportunities.

Todd Foley

Analyst

Yeah. I agree, everything you said, Rodney, especially the storing that you hit on earlier as well. You mentioned GLP-1 and that certainly has been part of this year, but as we sit here today, I think we continue to expect to see growth in that area as more manufacturers get in the mix and the supply continues to become more available and more and more patients continue to utilize that drug. So I think we’ll still see -- expect to see growth in the GLP-1 space as well for the -- at least near future, foreseeable future.

Rodney McMullen

Analyst

Thanks, Michael.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from John Heinbockel of Guggenheim Partners. Your lines are open. Please go ahead.

John Heinbockel

Analyst

Hey, Rodney. Can you talk about the, you referenced in your release, the initiatives -- productivity initiatives on in-store order selection and how broadly is that rolled out? And when I think about how much you can take the cost per order down, can you take that down a double-digit from where we are today?

Rodney McMullen

Analyst

Over time, we would certainly expect to take it down double-digit from where we are today. And when I talk about over time, I’m talking about over the next two years or three years and it’s -- we still have a reasonable amount to roll it out. Now, as you, you followed Kroger long enough to know that we will start -- whenever we roll something out, we start with the biggest opportunity places first. So it’s the highest volume locations and those kinds of things. The thing that I think is fascinating and exciting is, if you look at the fundamental things behind the software, we’re learning that we can actually use that same technology in other areas of the business and I would hope that we’ll continue to find those kinds of opportunities. So I feel confident and comfortable that certainly, well, double-digit type stuff of improvement. But our team’s not going to be satisfied until they get to where it’s indifferent, how somebody shops with us.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Michael Montani of Evercore ISI. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Michael Montani

Analyst

Yes. Good morning. Thanks for taking the question. I just wanted to ask first, did I miss the fuel CPG contribution for this quarter? Wondering if you could give some added color there and then just had a follow-up?

Todd Foley

Analyst

Yeah. Thanks, Michael. We don’t typically -- we stopped a few quarters ago, given in details around CPG. You did catch on to the point that I think that, that Rodney brought out that both gallons and CPG were down in the third quarter. Again, some of the volatility in fuel, but as we looked at the fourth quarter relative to our expectations versus a year ago we think fuel will be a little bit -- our expectation is that fuel will be a little bit more stable year-over-year in Q4 and that’s supported by some of the trends that we’ve seen over the last few periods in both gallons and, and margins.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Robert Dickerson of Jefferies. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Robert Dickerson

Analyst

Great. Thanks so much. Rodney, I know you set up front and it seems like consumer sentiment is still low, but maybe there are some green shoots, maybe it’s improving a little bit. So I’m just wondering kind of as you got through the Thanksgiving holiday and then as we’re kind of real time in the current holiday season, like you have -- have you seen any incremental almost like sequential traffic improvement in the actual retail stores?

Rodney McMullen

Analyst

We feel good about where we are. The thing, I guess, I would say that we still don’t quite under, it’ll take time is there’s five less shopping days between Thanksgiving and Christmas. So we feel good about where we are. We’re tracking a little bit better than where we thought we would be. But we still are cautious because of the five less shopping days and how does that play out? And as you mentioned, we are seeing the customer, most of the customers are starting to feel a little bit more relaxed and comfortable in terms of where they stand and what’s coming -- what -- how things look going forward.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Jacob Aiken-Phillips of Melius Research. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Jacob Aiken-Phillips

Analyst

Good morning, everyone. Thanks for the question. I just wanted to go back to inflation a little bit. So you showed that you were able to kind of leverage SG&A given like flat comps excluding KSP. How do we think about that relationship going forward in terms of wage inflation and wage investment? And then also with tariffs, we’re of the view that it could be a self-fulfilling prophecy in terms of like people buying stuff and causing inflation, even if there aren’t actually tariffs happening. I just wanted your thoughts on that.

Todd Foley

Analyst

Yeah. I’ll start with the wage inflation -- the wage investments. It’s a great question. We’ve talked a lot about how important it is for us to invest in our associates because they’re so critical delivering our customer experience. But we will continue to balance those wage investments with the other profitability enhancement items that we say. So in any inflationary environment and in any sales leverage environment, we’ve demonstrated that our model enables us to pull the levers to be able to balance those wage increases accordingly over time. So given the comments that we said with fairly balanced inflation, we think we’ll be able to leverage our SG&A including wage investments. Rodney, I don’t know if you want to comment on the tariffs.

Rodney McMullen

Analyst

Yeah. Tariffs for us, first of all, the effect on us is probably a little less than most companies and we buy product internationally, but it’s pretty modest. If you look in the Fresh departments, it’s less than 20% of the stuff. If you look in the center store, it’s a fraction of that. So we would see the tariffs affecting others generally more than us and we feel like we’ll be able to manage whatever is done because our competitors will have to deal with the same thing. Thanks Jacob.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Chuck Cerankosky of Northcoast Research. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Chuck Cerankosky

Analyst

Good morning, everyone. Rodney, you mentioned that the mainstream and premium customers were pretty close to spending how they had been before COVID. But there also is from what I can observe, the groups that are more likely to be going to restaurants, which seem to be doing fairly well right now. How do you sort of offset that with Kroger’s prepared food offerings and maybe what changes are you making in those categories?

Rodney McMullen

Analyst

Well, first of all, we believe that that’s a huge opportunity. Our market share -- half of meals bought at a restaurant is consumed in a car or at home. Actually, I think it’s a little over half. So we see that as a huge opportunity. I would say we’re trying a lot of different things. We have -- we’re working with a couple of outside companies trying to help us there. But to me it’s more of -- in the future we have a bigger opportunity than we’ve been able to unlock so far and we believe it’s a huge opportunity because what we’ve found is that a customer can buy a meal from us and it’s usually the cost is one-third to one-fourth versus going out to a restaurant. So it’s -- for us, it’s a great opportunity, but we’re just scratching the surface.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. At this time, we will take no further questions. So I’ll hand back to Rodney for any further remarks.

Rodney McMullen

Analyst

Thank you for all the questions. And as always, we have a lot of our associates listening in. First, I would like to send our thoughts and prayers to those impacted by the recent hurricanes. I would also like to take a moment to express my gratitude and appreciation for our dedicated team of associates, especially during this time. They just did amazing things on supporting communities. And as you know, our stores are vital to each community we serve and during these types of times, our customers rely on us to provide them with food and other essential items. And I am so proud of our associates who have stepped up to be there for our customers, communities and each other. Thank you for everything that you do for Kroger and our customers. And thank you for everyone joining us today. We wish you a very happy holiday season, Merry Christmas and Happy New Year.

Operator

Operator

Thank you all for joining today’s call. You may now disconnect your lines.