Earnings Labs

Lamar Advertising Company (LAMR)

Q1 2023 Earnings Call· Thu, May 4, 2023

$134.96

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Please standby, your program is about to begin. Excuse me, everyone, we now have Sean Reilly and Jay Johnson in conference. Please be aware that each of your lines is in a listen-only mode. At the conclusion of the Company's presentation, we will open the floor for questions. [Operator Instructions]. In the course of this discussion, Lamar may make forward-looking statements regarding the company, including statements about its future financial performance, strategic goals, plans and objectives, including with respect to the amount and timing of any distributions to stockholders and the impacts and effects of general economic conditions, including inflationary pressures on the company's business, financial condition and results of operations. All forward-looking statements involve risks, uncertainties and contingencies, many of which are beyond Lamar's control and which may cause actual results to differ materially from anticipated results. Lamar has identified important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those discussed in this call in the company's first quarter 2023 earnings release and its most important -- and its most recent annual report on Form 10-K. Lamar refers you to those documents. Lamar's first quarter 2023 earnings release, which contains information required by Regulation G regarding certain non-GAAP financial measures, was furnished to the SEC on a Form 8-K this morning and is available on the Investors section of Lamar's website, www.lamar.com. I would now like to turn the conference over to Sean Reilly. Mr. Reilly, you may begin.

Sean Reilly

Analyst

Thank you, Nicky. Good morning all, and welcome to Lamar's First Quarter 2023 Earnings Call. I'm quite proud of how our business in general and our industry have performed in what remains a challenging operating environment for media owners generally. Our first quarter unfolded largely as we expected, with consolidated revenue, expenses and adjusted EBITDA, all up slightly on an acquisition-adjusted basis. Strength in local sales offset weakness in national, particularly early in the quarter. . Activity in Q1, RFPs and buys from national customers picked up as the quarter went on and the tone from local customers remains largely constructive. However, as mentioned in the release, April saw some slight softening. May and June seemed to have firmed up, so Q2 should be fine. Meanwhile, we feel really good about the trajectory of full year expenses. And given that, we continue to pace towards the middle of our previously provided full year AFFO guidance range. Back to Q1. Categories of particular strength included services, amusements, entertainment and sports and restaurants. Real estate, predominantly local vertical, was relatively weak and insurance, which is primarily a national category, was also weak. Rate was up on both analog bulletins and posters while occupancy was slightly down. Our strongest regions were in the Atlantic and Gulf Coast and continue to trend that way. The Northeast, which is more reliant on national advertising, trailed our other regions. We added 71 net digital billboards in the quarter, bringing our quarter end total to 4,536 large-format units. Our digital faces generated about 28% of our outdoor revenue in Q1, up slightly from the same period in 2022. On a same board basis, digital was down 3.5%, so we're going to monitor that going forward, but we are still working toward a full year goal of 300 digital conversions. On the M&A front, the year is off to a quiet start. We closed 11 deals for about $14 million in the first quarter. We have some additional transactions in the diligence and closing stages, but continue to anticipate that this will be a modest acquisition year for us with spend in the $100 million to $150 million range. To sum things up, the macro outlook remains uncertain, but I am confident that our balance sheet, our portfolio of assets and most of all, our strong team of local operators have us positioned well for the balance of 2023 and beyond. With that, I will turn it over to Jay to provide more color on Q1. Jay?

Jay Johnson

Analyst

Thanks, Sean. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us. We had solid results in the quarter. We've made internal expectations on the top line and exceeded expectations for both operating expenses and adjusted EBITDA. However, due to the rising interest rate environment, AFFO declined year-over-year for the first time since the third quarter of 2020. In the first quarter, acquisition-adjusted revenue increased 1.5% from the same period last year against a difficult comparison, in which pro forma revenue growth was 18.6% in the first quarter of 2022. Our billboard regions came in essentially flat to up low single digits with the exception of the Northeast region, which contracted year-over-year as a result of its exposure to national advertising. Acquisition-adjusted operating expenses increased 2% in the first quarter, better than anticipated due to expense controls in our Billboard division as well as COVID-19 relief grants from our airport partners. Operating expense growth for the full year should be in the 3% to 3.5% range on an acquisition-adjusted basis. Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $198 million compared to $109.2 million in 2022, which was an increase of 3.5%. On an acquisition-adjusted basis, adjusted EBITDA expanded 80 basis points. Adjusted EBITDA margin for the quarter remained strong at approximately 42%. Notably, our margins in the quarter held contracting only 40 basis points from Q1 2022 and perhaps the most inflationary environment in the past 40 years. Despite the inflationary pressures, adjusted EBITDA margin was one of the strongest for our first quarter in recent history and approximately 400 basis points ahead of pre-pandemic levels. Adjusted funds from operations totaled $144.1 million in the first quarter compared to $151.9 million last year, a decrease of 5.2% and the result of cash interest increasing by $14.7 million over Q1 2022. Cash interest…

Sean Reilly

Analyst

Thanks, Jay. Let me provide a little color on some familiar operating statistics. A quick note on CapEx in Q1, slightly elevated due to an acquisition we closed late in the year last year and some spending we had to do to bring that inventory up to Lamar standards. Digital. I noted that our digital sign board was down 3.5% in Q1. As of now, we are not going to cause that to change our view on how many digitals we should deploy this year. We still believe we should deploy about 300. Obviously, we're going to monitor that closely, and we'll let you know if there's any changes there. On programmatic, real quick. Programmatic recovered in Q1, but -- and was up good solid double digits Q-over-Q. But as I mentioned, faltered in April, as did national. That April performance in national caused us to change our view slightly on how national was going to play out during the course of the year. If you recall, on the first quarter call, we felt like national would for the full year come in up around 2%. That view has now changed to flat to maybe down 1% for the full year. To wrap some numbers around that, that's 2% or 3% on about $400 million that we believe won't materialize this year. As we mentioned, though, we plan on making that up on the expense side. We're off to a great start controlling expenses, and we see that momentum continuing through the year. So with that color, I will open it up for questions. Nicky?

Operator

Operator

Q - Jason Bazinet

Analyst

I just had a quick question on that digital weakness that you called out. Is your sense that, that's like a harbinger of broader weakness given the shorter contract lengths on digital? Or if you sort of dig into that, is it more a function of specific verticals that happen to over-index on digital that just might be weak?

Sean Reilly

Analyst

Right now, the color we're getting from the field, Jason, is the latter that, again, our team in the field doesn't believe that we should view that as a reason to slow our deployment. Now they are seeing what I would call jitters and caution amongst our customers. They're tending to commit here and buy a little shorter. That could have a little something to do with it. But again, we feel like given that that's our premium product and that the demand over a longer period of time has been so strong for it that we should continue to deploy. .

Jason Bazinet

Analyst

Okay. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] We will move next with Cameron McVeigh with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.

Cameron McVeigh

Analyst

Hi. Thanks, guys. I'm curious if you have any more color on how advertiser demand has been trending per vertical, anything to call out there incrementally, either positive or negative? And then secondly, how are you guys thinking about pro forma growth in the second quarter? Or just any color on -- more color on how it's shaping out? Thanks.

Sean Reilly

Analyst

Sure. Well, I'll start with the second point because we did highlight April. April was a little disappointing for us. And when we really dug into those numbers and solve the sort of, what I would call, firming up in May and June, we feel like Q2 is going to come in where it should. Verticals. So I singled out on the weaker side, real estate, which, again, it tends to be more local and insurance, which tends to be more national. Another one that we've talked about of late, of course, is gaming. That tends to be what's going on with the online gaming, not necessarily our traditional regional and national casino customers. So that has continued to tail off a little bit. On the strength side, service continues to be very, very strong. And really just carrying us right now, up 17% quarter-over-quarter for services, our largest category. Restaurants were also particularly strong, up 6% quarter-over-quarter. So those are the ones that highlight and the rest of the book is just sort of steady as she goes. Any other questions?

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] We will move next with Richard Choe with JPMorgan. Please go ahead.

Richard Choe

Analyst

Hi. I just wanted to follow-up a little bit on those questions. So given the comments, it looks like we should be looking for a down national in 2Q, and part of that seems to be really driven by the online gaming on the programmatic side. Is the non-national programmatic doing better? Or is this mostly the programmatic that's driving the national kind of softness?

Sean Reilly

Analyst

So I can't pin it all on programmatic in terms of what's going on with our national book. If the definition of a recession is 2 straight quarters of declines, then in terms of national ad spend, we might be there. And by the way, programmatic is all national. We don't have local businesses accessing our programmatic channel just yet. So no, it really is -- it's sort of a few large national accounts that are sort of pulling back, I think, is what you're seeing.

Richard Choe

Analyst

Got it. And on the local side, I assume the growth there is still pretty healthy, but just the comps are kind of tough given how strong it's been, it was last year and just kind of lapping that strength but anything in particular going on the local side?

Sean Reilly

Analyst

In touching base with our local management, they're not seeing what they would deem a recession on Main Street. However, as I mentioned, they are seeing or feeling just a little bit of jitters, right, a little bit of caution amongst our local customers. They're still buying. And as you mentioned, we do have tough comps when it comes to local ad spend. But they're still buying. There just seems to be a little bit of caution out there. And nothing that is flashing red. But just, as I mentioned, just a little bit of caution on Main Street.

Richard Choe

Analyst

Got it. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

We show no further questions at this time. I would like to turn the call back over to Sean Reilly for any closing remarks.

Sean Reilly

Analyst

Well, thank you all for your time, and we will convene again next quarter. Thanks, Nicky.

Operator

Operator

And this does conclude today's program. Thank you for your participation. You may disconnect at any time.