Earnings Labs

Liberty Global plc (LBTYB)

Q4 2013 Earnings Call· Sun, Feb 16, 2014

$17.00

-2.02%

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen and thank you for standing by. Welcome to Liberty Global's investor call. This call and the associated webcast are the property of Liberty Global and any redistribution, retransmission, or rebroadcast of this call or webcast in any form without the expressed written consent of Liberty Global is strictly prohibited. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Today's formal presentation materials can be found under the Investor Relations section of Liberty Global's website at www.libertyglobal.com. Following today's formal presentation, instructions will be given for a question-and-answer session. As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded on this date, February 14, 2014. I would now like to turn the conference call over to Mr. Mike Fries, CEO. Please go ahead, sir.

Mike Fries

Management

Thank you. Hello, everybody. And we appreciate you joining us, as usual. I have got a lot of folks on the phone. In particular, my five EVPs, Charlie Bracken and Bernie Dvorak, our Co-CFOs, Diederik Karsten, who runs our European operations and Balin Nair, our CTO and Brian Howell, our General Counsel. There re several others on the call, which if needed, I will be calling on to answer some of your questions. Before get rolling, though, I think the operator has the Safe Harbor statement.

Operator

Operator

Thank you, page two of the slides details the company's Safe Harbor statements regarding forward-looking statements. Today's presentation may include forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, including the company's expectations with respect to its outlook and future growth prospects and other information and statements that are not historical fact. These forward-looking statements involve certain risks that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed or implied by these statements. These risks include those detailed from time to time in Liberty Global's filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, including its most recently filed Form 10-K. Liberty Global disclaims any obligation to update any of these forward-looking statements to reflect any change in its expectations or in the conditions on which any such statement is based. I would now like to turn the call back over to Mr. Mike Fries.

Mike Fries

Management

Thank you. As we usually do, I want to give some overview remarks. I think Bernie today will cover the numbers and then we will get right to your questions and we are speaking off of slides. So if you haven't, you might grab those off our website. And I am going to start on slide four, as I usually do with some highlights for the year, where perhaps I think the most important takeaway here is that we hit the mark on the operating front in 2013. We added 1.3 million new RGUs, including 413,000 in the fourth quarter, clearly putting us in the upper echelon of growth companies in our sector as most of you would know. I will provide a bit more color of those numbers in a second. Rebased revenue and OCF growth for the year came in at 4% which is in line with our mid-single digit guidance, even including Virgin Media for the full year, but if you look at the original Liberty Global asset that we started the year with, revenue and OCF growth was actually 5%. And then perhaps one last point. We talked a lot about the fact that our Dutch operation is going through a transition phase. If you exclude Holland and the U.K. just for comparison purposes look at remainder of our '13 markets, our core revenue and OCF growth, as a group was actually 6% for the year. Of course, in January, we announced the Ziggo acquisition which will effectively create a national cable operator at Holland and solidifying growth in that market for the long-term. Focusing on cash flow, and consistent with the last two years, our capital intensity decline began in 2013, which helped drive 16% growth in our adjusted free cash flow to $1.8 billion…

Bernie Dvorak

Management

Great. Thanks, Mike, and welcome everyone. I will start on slide 14. Before I began, I would like to point out two things. First, when we refer to our combined results, they include Virgin Media for the full 12 months of 2013, including the first five months before we completed the acquisition. Second, the Chellomedia assets that we have sold have been treated as a discontinued operation. So our operating results exclude the impact of Chellomedia for all historical periods. We have sued this slide over the last two quarters, as we think it provides a helpful snapshot of our 2013 rebased performance, which adjusts to neutralize the impact of acquisitions and currency movements. The gray bar shows our results, excluding Virgin Media. The green bar depicts Virgin Media's performance. And the blue bar highlights the combined growth rates for the whole company. For both revenue and OCF, we delivered 5% rebased growth for the full year, excluding Virgin Media. I will provide more detail shortly but the key drivers of our mid-single digit performance were our businesses in Belgium and Germany, with Telenet posting a 10% rebased revenue growth, their best results since we began to consolidate them and Unitymedia leading an OCF of 9% rebased growth. The key factor underlying both of their strong performances was volume growth on triple-play products, while Telenet's rebased revenue growth also benefited from strong mobile subscriber additions. The middle bars in each graph highlight Virgin Media's 2% rebased revenue growth and 3% rebased OCF growth for the full year. Virgin's reported full-year OCF growth was hindered by a year-over-year decline of 4% in Q4 and this decline primarily resulted from higher programming cost and a challenging comparison. As we flagged on our Q3 call, Virgin's Q4 2012 OCF benefited from over $25…

Operator

Operator

(Operator Instructions). In order to accommodate everyone, we request that you ask one question with one follow-up, if needed. (Operator Instructions). We will take first question from James Ratcliffe with Buckingham Research.

James Ratcliffe - Buckingham Research

Analyst

(Inaudible) the question. Two, if I could. First of all, on Horizon. Now looking at the penetration curve, Switzerland's had it for about three times the times Germany but has about 6X, 7X the penetrations. Should we read anything into that, about the long-term prospects or appeal of the platform in the two countries? Or is it a function of what the penetration curve looks like as it's been in the market for a few months? And secondly, can you talk a little about how you are thinking about the relative appeal of M&A from a new market versus expansion for existing markets fill in and how Ono could or could not fit into that? Thanks.

Mike Fries

Management

So on the Horizon point, if Diederik or Balan have anything to add, please do. But I would say it is more about just the timing. We don't anticipate meaningfully different penetration rates in the markets after we have rolled them out. Remember, at Horizon in Germany, we did launch it in September timeframe, but we had a few logistical and technological glitches that slowed the early launch. So while we were launched officially we were rolling out very carefully in those early weeks and even months. So I don't think there is anything to take from that and we think will reach comparable levels in most markets. In terms of M&A, listen, it's a great question. We are focused, as I think I have said for over a decade now on our core markets first and trying to build scale in the countries that are most important to us. We don't really comment on M&A transactions, but in this instance I can more or less tell you we aren't looking at probably Spain. Its probably a precedent, I will regret making it, establishing here, but that market does not fit for a lot of reasons today into what we are trying to achieve in the European marketplace and we don't have the synergies quite frankly the confidence in that country or that asset that others have. So I don't see us participating there.

James Ratcliffe - Buckingham Research

Analyst

Thanks.

Diederik Karsten

Analyst

Mike, this is Diederik. Just to add to what you said about Horizon. Indeed, just to note that in Germany we had launched the Horizon product only in the Unitymedia area and it will be only later this year that we will add to KBW region. So that is obviously also showing up [ph].

Mike Fries

Management

Yes. Great point. Of course. Thanks, Diederik.

Diederik Karsten

Analyst

Yes. The other thing is that it's a bit newer. It's seen as, it's considered a newer product in Germany than it is in Switzerland. So I would almost say that potential there is a still lot of run rate.

James Ratcliffe - Buckingham Research

Analyst

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

And we will take our next question from Jeff Wlodarczak with Pivotal Research Group.

Jeff Wlodarczak - Pivotal Research Group

Analyst · Pivotal Research Group.

Good morning, guys. I wanted to focus on your Latin American assets. Can you provide more color, specifically, on what happened at VTR in the quarter? Your rebased EBITDA was way above expectation, which I assume is mostly that swapped through the MVNO model, and your RGU growth slowed materially. Are these trends expected to continue for the balance of '14? And then I have got a follow-up. Thanks.

Mike Fries

Management

Mauricio, are you online?

Mauricio Ramos

Analyst · Pivotal Research Group.

Yes, Mike, I am on. The first part all your question is, indeed we had a very good year in Chile, both in cable and mobile. The second, the fourth quarter results are indeed affected by the transition to a full MVNO model and that is why you see that fourth quarter rebased OCF growth was higher, as you see it. Then typically as we head into the end of the year in the fourth quarter and into the first quarter of this year, the RGU acquisitions tend to slow down a little bit as a result of that being the summer period in Chile.

Jeff Wlodarczak - Pivotal Research Group

Analyst · Pivotal Research Group.

So you would expect it to get better from here?

Mauricio Ramos

Analyst · Pivotal Research Group.

We are seeing good growth in January better than we expected and we foresee strong demand that as we did last year for our triple-play product. And with the new model, we are back on the market on mobile, which we weren't towards the end of last year.

Jeff Wlodarczak - Pivotal Research Group

Analyst · Pivotal Research Group.

Okay. Thank you. Then just one for Mike. You have had a successful independent capital raise at VTR, where you carved it out of the bank group. Now that you have gotten that done, what are the milestones we should be looking for, for you to potentially prep the company for a spin on IPO and is that something that happen in of '14?

Mike Fries

Management

Well, I think it is definitely something that could happen in 2014. There is a lot of moving parts which we don't have time to get in to not the least of which is trying to keep some clear water for other transactions to complete. But in the end, it's largely just plowing forward on the structural and documentation related steps for something like that. I don't think there is any strategic or operational milestones, Jeff, that are going to jump out at you or us that would affect the decision. It is something we feel makes sense for our company and our shareholders and all things being equal we are going to prep it up and execute on that plan and it can very well happen in 2014.

Jeff Wlodarczak - Pivotal Research Group

Analyst · Pivotal Research Group.

Great. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

We will take our next question from Michael Bishop with Barclays.

Michael Bishop - Barclays

Analyst · Barclays.

Hi. Just one question, please, on Germany. You mentioned, Mike, the strategy in Germany that are changing with a bit more of a price focus and potentially, for volumes to slow. Could you give us a bit more detail on exactly how much more you will turn the screw on price because, obviously, the fourth quarter was very strong volumes again? So I am just trying to gauge the potential impact in 2014. Thanks.

Mike Fries

Management

Well we have already implemented some price increases in Germany across bundles and in the course of 2013 we had bits and pieces here as well. I don't it is substantial and, Diederik, you can correct me, I think we are looking at the low single digit increases across core products. We don't think that will have a big impact. But it's not just pricing. It is also the length of discounts and how much you charge at install and other factors that affect consumer decision-making that we feel we are leaving some on the table, if you will. So as you start year, you never know exactly what the net add impact from Germany or from a market will be when you make these sorts of decisions. My personal opinion is, we will continue to generate meaningful net adds in Germany. The market there is so robust and our products are so compelling that I don't think what little pricing impacts we are delivering will have a large or change significantly the volumes that we forecasted historically, but we will see what happens. You want to add anything to that, Diederik?

Diederik Karsten

Analyst · Barclays.

Yes. Just to add, if you see our move which we started last year from our volume focused to value focused, we are comfortable that we are not only on the right track, but it starts to deliver. ARPU was up 8% last year in Germany. Also new products like Horizon are priced at the higher level where they belong with the strengthening in the product specs. That's the strategy which we will keep pursuing. On top of that we will also staple to where it comes to promotional effectiveness also in 2013, we started to reduce promotional periods which also helped overall pricing. Just to add some flavor to the details what you said.

Operator

Operator

We will take our next question from Vijay Jayant with International Strategy and Investment Group.

Vijay Jayant - International Strategy and Investment Group

Analyst · International Strategy and Investment Group.

Thank you. I was hoping you could provide some more color regarding the Ziggo transaction, the timeline related to any of the milestones we should be considering. Any conditions we might be thinking about such as any requirements for un-bundling your network and whether some conditions would lead you to reevaluate the deal and what remedies you might have? Thank you.

Mike Fries

Management

Yes. I think the general posture is not to comment on those types of things at this stage. We are really in the very early stages of dealing with the various regulatory bodies and we feel, as I said in my remarks, confident that they are approaching us in a rational and reasonable way and we will approach it in a rational and reasonable way. It's important, we think for the Netherlands, it is important for our shareholders and Ziggo shareholders, it is important for consumers. So we are pretty confident in the end that all parties will see it similarly and I really don't want to get into details about this condition or that remedy. It's way too soon to have a visibility on that. We are just working through the procedures and feel good about a close in the second half of the year.

Vijay Jayant - International Strategy and Investment Group

Analyst · International Strategy and Investment Group.

Great, and a second, if I could. If you could just, again, go over the phasing of the Virgin Media synergies this year? Just if we could think about how that is contributing to the OCF acceleration this year?

Mike Fries

Management

Well, we did say 2016 for full annualized effects of the $215 million. But Tom, you want to provide any color on that?

Tom Mockridge - Chief Executive Officer

Analyst · International Strategy and Investment Group.

Yes, thanks Mike. Progressively through this year, the benefit of the synergies and efficiencies will fall to the bottom line in the business. Essentially the reductions we made in headcount, which as Mike alluded to, have been close to 10%, about 2,000, that has overwhelmingly taken place before close of December last year. So we do have that benefit coming through now and then there is a whole range of other synergies, efficiencies, programs that are building through the year in conjunction with Liberty Global and we will get that progressive benefit through '14 and then into '15 and through to '16.

Vijay Jayant - International Strategy and Investment Group

Analyst · International Strategy and Investment Group.

Thank you very much.

Operator

Operator

We will take our next question from Benjamin Swinburne with Morgan Stanley.

Benjamin Swinburne - Morgan Stanley

Analyst · Morgan Stanley.

Thanks. Good morning. One on Ziggo and then back up, ask a follow-up on Virgin. So Mike, whenever you guys acquire assets, we are always looking at how you think about those acquisitions versus buying your own stock. So when you look at Ziggo, I think, at nine times EBITDA, I am wondering if you thought the top line could get better over time in that market. It's a national footprint, something that you haven't had before. The Dutch market's been tough. It's not growing as fast as your overall portfolio, but clearly, you see opportunity there. So I am wondering if you could just comment beyond the synergies as you think about what that footprint means to the business and whether this whole asset base could grow faster over the longer term?

Mike Fries

Management

Well, I think the answer to that question, Ben, is absolutely yes. When you look our internal forecasts for our own business, which showed progress and improvement but clearly it was going to take time to achieve on a standalone basis and then we married that up with Ziggo's own internal forecasts which were a bit more robust since they operate in different markets, then we have a meaningfully less competition from KPN's fiber builds and things of that nature. And then you add on top of that the synergies, there is no question that we believe you have got a combined platform that will achieve terrific growth, both from the top line and the operating cash flow line. Certainly consistent with what we are trying to achieve in other parts of Europe. So there is no question it was accretive, both to each of the assets and consistent with our outlook for growth across Europe, if that's where you are going.

Benjamin Swinburne - Morgan Stanley

Analyst · Morgan Stanley.

Yes, that's very helpful. Thanks. Then I guess, a somewhat related question on Virgin, maybe for Tom or Mike or both of you. When you look at last year, the Business put up solid growth in the cable business. I think it was 5% organic. But mobile and B2B were light. So when you look at '14 on the revenue side, how do you guys feel about the top line, particularly on those areas that have weighed on growth, like B2B and mobile? And I am asking in the context of a market that's obviously quite dynamic but it does look like Freeview is faltering a bit as a product. So maybe the market is becoming a little more rational than less.

Mike Fries

Management

Well, I will give you a 30,000 foot view and then Tom can fill in the gaps. The growth in revenue in Virgin in 2014 is clearly a function of several moving parts. Your rate increase, that you talked about, which delivered obviously a big punch to your revenue and your top line, B2B turning around which we have great confidence in and the team has done a great job of redirecting resources and strategies there, but you have also got continued headwinds in the voice business, some regulatory issues, things of that nature. So it's always that Virgin is going to be a bit of positive and a bit of offset. What we have to do is focus on driving the things we can control, principally the consumer business, as you pointed out, as well as the B2B business, which is huge chunk of the story there and focusing on any synergies that is down which will ensure that we achieved the operating cash flow and cash flow forecast which were so important to our decision about the business and valuation. You want to add anything to that, Tom?

Tom Mockridge

Analyst · Morgan Stanley.

I just want to add that coming into the business, I think we did find that both B2B and mobile had never really been fully integrated with the cable network business and I think in both . These running by give us the opportunity for using mobile bundled more closely with the cable business, consumer cable business and using the Virgin Media strength and brand and breadth in B2B both giving us growth opportunities through this year and going forward. We are very focused on getting those.

Benjamin Swinburne - Morgan Stanley

Analyst · Morgan Stanley.

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

We will take our next question from Bryan Kraft with Evercore.

Bryan Kraft - Evercore

Analyst · Evercore.

Good morning. Thank you. I just had two questions. Just one on the guidance. What's happening below the EBITDA line that's causing the free cash flow growth in 2014 to slow to 10% versus the 16% last year, even though the rebased EBITDA growth is accelerating in 2014? And then, just wanted to see if you could provide an update on the housing contract impact in Germany from the contracts moving over to Deutsche Telekom? Thank you.

Mike Fries

Management

Sure, I will take a crack at the free cash flow and then Charlie is welcome to chime in, but I think it's actually 13% when you get outside the rounding not 10%. I know what around it, it looks like 10% but it's close to 13%. So we still consider that mid-teens consistent with our outlook but also remember we had 30% in the prior year, 16% this year and free cash flow, for us, there is going to be some variability in that but Charlie you want to add anything to the free cash flow line there?

Charlie Bracken

Analyst · Evercore.

We feel pretty good about the $2 billion number. There are a bunch of variables. I think there was some talk in the Telenet press release about the timing of a significant cash tax payment. I think, and consistent with our spirit of not over-promising on delivery, I think we got the $2 billion, the phasing of certain working capital could lead to some upside or downside on that. But I do think, or that's actually what's Mike was saying, we are consistently tracking this mid-teens target and the fact that we have made the performance this year, I don't think it means that we are backing off that target. I think we feel pretty good about sticking with it.

Mike Fries

Management

What was your second question, Bryan?

Bryan Kraft - Evercore

Analyst · Evercore.

Yes, I just want to clarify this, and the operating free cash flow, I mean, is actually accelerating, right? More EBITDA growth? Declining capital intensity? So this is just going at the top line?

Mike Fries

Management

Yes.

Bryan Kraft - Evercore

Analyst · Evercore.

Okay. The other question was on Germany. The housing contracts, particularly the one big one shifting from yourselves to Deutsche Telekom, if you could just provide an update on how far along we are in that migration and how much is left to still happen?

Mike Fries

Management

Yes. I will let Diederik jump in on that but I think we won back 80% or more of the contracts that we have already been after. You want to talk about that, Diederik?

Diederik Karsten

Analyst · Evercore.

Yes. I think its also good to say that we didn't lose or run any revenue contract in 2013, but there is still some at risk, 40% of the, let us say, call it the contracts covered by the remedy agreements remain subject to these so-called special termination rights. Well, it is good to say that they only account for less than 1% of the German total revenue, we have been able, in Q4, to also secure new contract. That's also, I could say, that we did not lose any single remedy contracts. So, all in all, that is what it is. That, by the way, Germany's 20 largest book agreement accounts only generated 7% of its revenue just we kind of disclosed this already but just to give you an indication that sometimes the size is bigger than the bill.

Mike Fries

Management

Does that answer your question, Bryan?

Bryan Kraft - Evercore

Analyst · Evercore.

Yes. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

We will take our next question from Tim Boddy with Goldman Sachs.

Tim Boddy - Goldman Sachs

Analyst · Goldman Sachs.

Yes. Thanks for the question. I want to talk a little about content, Mike, and whether there's been a change in your attitude towards the ownership of content? I guess, not specifically with regards to some of the noises about Formula One, but it would be helpful to understand your strategic thinking more broadly. And then I have got a follow-up as well.

Mike Fries

Management

Sure. I mean, as we said at the time that we announced the sale of Telemedia that we did feel that we could reallocate resources more effectively and I mean effectively from a strategic point of view mostly, not necessarily financially more effective in content that were more closely aligned to our distribution strategy in market. So of course was in 65 countries and all over the place. So I am not going to comment on specific rumors in any one market. I will simply say that we do think sports, especially in cut market where we arty have sports channels and sports rights that our customers have become accustomed to could be an interesting opportunity for us, but I would caution you not to be concerned about big bets. We are really talking about smart bets that secure access for us for the long-term. We don't necessarily think we need to own content to the exclusion of our competitors in our markets. We just need to be in control of our own destiny, so to speak and sometimes either participating with others or adding new elements of sports rights, for example to existing platforms can be beneficial but I will just caution you that we are going to be very smart about these types of investments. We don't expect to jeopardize our core capital structure or growth prospects. We are looking at this, I would say, very carefully and very opportunistically. The other area that I would add where we are perhaps ramping up a bit but again, it would be indiscernible to you from a disclosure point of view is in SVOD where we do feel like given our Horizon platform and how robust our user interface is and our ability to attract consumers who are focused on functionality and multiple devices and TV Everywhere, so that our investment in SVOD content series and movies and things that they are growing accustomed to finding in a random access platform might increase. Again though those increases would be largely indiscernible to you, but on a relative basis as we look at content expenditures, I think we will be more aggressive and more focused on SVOD content to fill in tiers of service that we know our consumers are looking for and to do it cost effectively.

Tim Boddy - Goldman Sachs

Analyst · Goldman Sachs.

Thanks for that, and then just a follow-up. It was just around your buybacks. Maybe for yourself or Charlie, but I guess, you didn't buy much stock in the fourth quarter, given the scale of what you want to achieve, even if you can annualize it out. The buybacks were quite small. Was that related to the fact that you are in discussions with Ziggo? Or something else? And then, staying on the same point around buybacks. My understanding is that you can't buy any stock once you file for the Ziggo transaction. And am I also right, that you can't issue any stocks? So you couldn't do any transaction that required you to issue stock, whether that's buying in a minority or anything else, during the period, while you are waiting for Ziggo to close.

Mike Fries

Management

Charlie or Rick, do you want to address what we are saying about Q4 in those matters?

Charlie Bracken

Analyst · Goldman Sachs.

I think on the buyback side, we have got a target and we are going to get there in a relatively even way. I think we had overspent. We barely bought low in the year. I think that we felt Q4 was very consistent with delivering the old two year buyback target. So I don't think there is any sense of a slowing down for a particular reason. We are just pacing ourselves through and we certainly very comfortable that we can achieve our targeted buyback target, the new one, in the timeframe that we have given. What I would say about the buybacks during the Ziggo offer, is that we have a certain period when we are out of the market, which means that we haven't fully decided how we are going to allocate it but you will see any buybacks probably being backend allocated and then they spill over into the following year. But we will say, we are very keen on issuing on buying back our stocks. That's very important to us. In terms of issuing the stock, I think we are allowed to issue stock under the merger. I am looking at Andrea. So, I think it is not that we are necessarily looking to do that but there is an ability for us to issue stock, if we need to.

Mike Fries

Management

And where we get into periods where we are restricted or blacked out, we generally put in a 10b5-1 plan. So we are always in the market at some level unless we are absolutely restricted, but that doesn't happen often.

Charlie Bracken

Analyst · Goldman Sachs.

It doesn't happen often but it will happen from the time at which our registration statement becomes effective at the SEC, up and until we close. So there will be at least a couple of months window between now and that point of time, but from then until the time that which we close Ziggo, we will be out of the market.

Tim Boddy - Goldman Sachs

Analyst · Goldman Sachs.

Thanks so much.

Operator

Operator

We will take our next question on Matthew Harrigan with Wunderlich Securities.

Matthew Harrigan - Wunderlich Securities

Analyst

Well, thank you. I was going through your 10-K. You have done a great job on containing video erosion, primarily to the low-end. Lots of advanced service momentum at Horizon and TiVo and all that. But it looks like organically, your video revenues were up only 60 basis points, even as broadband was up 10.6%. Can you elaborate a little bit on that? Then on the programming side, it looks like European operation's programming expenses were roughly about 9.3%. You are still below $1 billion, against $5.7 billion in video revenues. I guess, even with Virgin and BT Sports and Telenet in there, you have got a really attractive programming cost template, even as you are doing more things on SVOD and with TV Everywhere. Can you talk little bit about where you see programming cost going and whether this very benign posture you have relative to the U.S. guys can continue?

Mike Fries

Management

Sure. I don't have all the layers of our video revenue in front of me yet and I don't think we disclose those, but I can tell you that the video revenue is going to be obviously impacted, on the positive, by our conversion to digital, which we do very effectively but losing a video customer in its entirety is pretty impactful as well. So that's a net figure. It's going to take into account the digital conversions which we are realizing at roughly twice the revenue of our analog customer, but also the net loss of a customer. So as we start to move into 2014 and '15 with a focus on pricing power and in looking at being more, not aggressive, but more appropriate in how we price our products, I think you will see that number improve. We also expect our video attrition to remain as where it is or improve. Over time, I think that will change. Programming expenses, if you don't break out, I think I have said publicly, though that you should expect that our programming expenditures, at least in the next two to three years, might outpace our video revenue growth but not meaningfully. Some of that is just pure catch-up in terms of SVOD rights or online rights or ensuring that we have a competitive, if not the best program offering in every market we are in, but fundamentally our video margins are still extremely high and the net effect of that catch-up in programming expenses is really almost difficult to see in our video margin which remains, I think, the highest in the business. On average, I think it has been something like $5 per subscriber per month on content, excluding the U.K. market which of course has a huge premium component to it and skews those numbers. So I think that we are looking at areas where we need to invest but we are not doing it -- we are doing it, I think, in a smart manner.

Matthew Harrigan - Wunderlich Securities

Analyst

Great, thank you.

Operator

Operator

We will take our final question from Ulrich Rathe with Jefferies.

Ulrich Rathe - Jefferies

Analyst

Yes, thanks very much. I have one slightly big-picture question. VMED is tracking maybe a bit below your own expectations, which I think you have mentioned at a recent presentation yourself. Do you actually manage the portfolio to get to the numbers? In other words, would you make compromises on growth in Germany, for example? I know it was a very high margin in Germany in the fourth quarter, yet again. So is this something that you look at from a portfolio perspective? Or do you tend to just try to manage the individual businesses for what they need and what you think creates most value in the individual business? That would be my first question, and then I have a follow-up as well.

Mike Fries

Management

Well, I would say that our principal approach to managing our businesses is to do, as you described, specifically looking at each individual market and each individual market opportunity and allowing that business team and management team to present a growth strategy that is appropriate for that marketplace. So it starts to bottom-up, as anybody budgets, we budget bottom-up and we plan bottom up and we the look at the U.K., definitively than we look at Germany. Having said that, like any multinational and any large operating company, we do look for cross-border synergies. We do look for cross-border in the benefits and we do look at our net consolidated results in the manner that's consistent with how you want us to look at that so we can deliver that the guidance and the targets that we have articulated. So it's a little bit above but it starts most primarily from the bottom up, market by market. What was your second question?

Ulrich Rathe - Jefferies

Analyst

Thanks very much. That's very clear. The second question is very specifically on the U.K. You are noting, I think you are reporting fractionally higher churn, which I think reflects higher retention measures. Could you just highlight a bit how you see the churn versus retention measures, potentially higher investments you needed to do in the fourth quarter to contain the churn? And how you view the broadband net adds? I am focusing very particularly on the broadband net adds at VMED. Any comments around the dynamics internally and obviously, the market would be much appreciated. Thank you.

Mike Fries

Management

Tom?

Tom Mockridge

Analyst

Well, broadband adds remain our strongest growing RGU and we very positive about the prospects there. We are doing a speed upgrade again implemented later this month and there is very strong demand in the United Kingdom for the faster broadband speeds. We are the unambiguous market leader there. We believe we can sustain that position. And in terms of the churn, the 2013 was unquestionably a difficult year with the early advent of BT Sports and the adjustments through the company. We took higher churn than the company would have liked but there is, again, a big focus on that now. We have a very effective retention teams in place and we believe again with the integration and the synergy with Liberty Global, there is practices and various procedures that we can pull that churn right down progressively through this year and going forward. It is a big objective of the business.

Ulrich Rathe - Jefferies

Analyst

Sure, but could you comment on the fourth quarter specifically? Did you take particular measures in the fourth quarter? Seeing the churn pick up, and then try to --

Tom Mockridge

Analyst

No, that if anything it was the opposite I think relative to Q3 with the fourth quarter last year. With the introduction of BT Sport we saw an improvement relative to Q3 but it was a period in the U.K. market where you had the intense promotion by both BT itself and Sky. With the heightened competition, where generally the churn did pick up but we believe we responded well to that with BT Sport, with other programming initiatives and at the year-end, it was definitely improving.

Ulrich Rathe - Jefferies

Analyst

Appreciate it. Thank you.

Mike Fries

Management

All right. Well, listen everyone. We appreciate you joining the call. We are about an hour here. I will just maybe sum up again by telling you we feel we had a good 2013, hit the market, as I said at the beginning and a great start to this year. We feel positive about the guidance we provided today. If you look at the big five countries, again, representing 80% of our business. Both the U.K. and Holland are on the upswing in terms of both our control VMED and the ability to implement the plans we have articulated and our expected consolidation the Dutch market. The other three markets continue to hit solid numbers. We feel good about the operating in organic growth side of our business strategically and with VMED and Ziggo and synergies and very opportunistic but careful investments in content, I think we are poised to continue the strategy that got us to this point. The balance sheet remains strong. Our cash flows are, we think, sufficient to manage our business and grow our business. We have $7 billion of liquidity. We have got lots of opportunity and the team on the call here today and the board are actually focused on delivering shareholder value. That's the number one thing. So we appreciate your support and look forward to a great 2014 with you. And we will talk you in the first quarter. Thanks very much.

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes Liberty Global 2013 results investor call. As a reminder, a replay of the call will be available in the Investor Relations section of Liberty Global's website at www.libertyglobal.com. There you can also find a copy of today's presentation materials.