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Liberty Latin America Ltd. (LILA)

Q4 2020 Earnings Call· Mon, Mar 1, 2021

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning ladies and gentlemen, and thank you for standing by. Today's call is being recorded. I'll now turn the call over to Ray Collins, Chief Strategy Officer of Liberty Latin America.

Ray Collins

Management

Good morning, and welcome to Liberty Latin America's Full Year 2020 Investor Call. At this time all participants are in listen-only mode. Today's formal presentation materials can be found under the Investor Relations section of Liberty Latin America's website at www.lla.com. Following today's formal presentation, instructions will be given for a question-and-answer session. As a reminder this call is being recorded. Today's remarks may include forward-looking statements including the company's expectations with respect to its outlook and future growth prospects, and other information and statements that are not historical fact. Actual results may differ materially from those expressed or implied by these statements. Additional information on factors or risks that could cause results to differ is available in Liberty Latin America's most recently filed Form 10-K. Liberty Latin America disclaims any obligation to update any of these forward-looking statements to reflect any change in its expectations or in the conditions on which any such statement is based. In addition, on this call, we will refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures which are reconciled to the most comparable GAAP financial measures, which can be found in the appendices to this presentation and on our Investor Relations website. I would now like to turn the call over to our CEO, Mr. Balan Nair.

Balan Nair

Management

Thank you, Ray and welcome everybody to our full year results presentation. I'll begin by taking you through our group highlights and operating results for each of our reporting segments before closing with an overview of our strategic focus in 2021. Chris Noyes, our CFO will then follow with a review of the company's financial performance and our outlook. After that, we will get straight to your questions. As always, I'm joined by my executive team from across the region, and I will get them involved as needed during the Q&A following our prepared remarks. As a point of housekeeping, we will both be working from slides, which you can find on our website at www.lla.com. Well, let's start on Slide 4 and our highlights for the year. Operationally, we added 170,000 RGUs driven by strong performance in cable and wireless, and a record result in Puerto Rico where broadband demand drove subscriber growth of more than double of 2019 additions. Our key financial objective is to deliver positive free cash flow in 2020, and I am pleased to say that we generated close to $115 million in a very challenging year. In terms of momentum, even excluding AT&T's contribution, our results continued to improve in quarter four, as we reported revenue at a similar level to the pre-COVID water warrant and adjusted OIBDA, which was in fact higher than in the first quarter of the year. We also made significant progress with our inorganic strategy as we completed the acquisition of AT&T's Puerto Rico and USs Virgin Island operations and in over 1 million mainly postpaid mobile subscribers to the grove. The operations are off to a good start, and I will cover our integration plans in more detail later in the presentation. Finally, we continued to lean into…

Christopher Noyes

Management

Thanks Balan. I’ll start on Slide 14 with our financial results. Two quick housekeeping items, our 2020 results include Liberty Mobile formerly AT&T Puerto Rico for the post acquisition period, which is for the last few months of Q4. And as mentioned we are now showing Cable & Wireless Panama as a separate operating segment, reflecting the change in reporting lines. However, our Cable & Wireless credit silo will still include CWP within its results. In the upper left, we reported Q4 revenue of $1.1 billion including a $174 million in revenue from Liberty Mobile. This compares to $975 million for Q4, 2019. Our Q4 result reflects a modest 1% year-over-year rebase decline much improved versus both Q2 and Q3 rebased levels, driven a large part by our strong quarterly performance in Puerto Rico. For the full year, we generated revenue of $3.8 billion for an annually rebased decline of 3%. Moving to adjusted OIBDA we posted $428 million or 4% rebased decline for Q4 and $1.5 billion or a 2% rebased decline for the full year. Liberty Mobile contributed $56 million of adjusted OIBDA in the quarter. Rebased performance in the quarter included a $13 million of net decremental impact in certain non-recurring items, primarily related content accrual of holding tax adjustments and disclosing our earnings release. Our key new additions in the bottom left of the slide were $188 million in Q4 or 17% of revenue. This result brings our 2020 total to $641 million or 17% of revenue, which was a 100 basis points lower than our year ago pre-COVID 2020 target. For 2021, we are targeting a modest increase to approximately 80% of revenue for key new additions. As Balan mentioned, we are planning to build approximately 600,000 homes in 2021, a substantial increase over 2020.…

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] And we will hear first from James Ratcliffe with Evercore ISI.

James Ratcliffe

Analyst

Thanks for taking the question. Two if I could, first of all on subsea, thanks for the color on that business. And that seems like the kind of infrastructure asset that's, really getting great multiples out there right now. Can you talk about, is that business to any degree separable from the rest of the business. And secondly, can you talk about what the rationale for changing the structure to have Panama report directly versus being part of Cable & Wireless? Thanks.

Balan Nair

Management

Thank you. Well, I'll say, I think your point is just right on the subtheme for our business. And I think over the next quarters or so we'll give you and everybody more clear line of sight into that business, but we kind of highlighted already. It's a very good OIBDA business of $400 million in revenue all U.S. dollars. We're quite excited about that asset. I think over the next quarters, you'll get more visibility to it. It's positive. On Panama, I think you know Panama you can clearly see the numbers there. And we are very focused on it. We have a great government partner there. We are very excited about that part of the world. We think in Central America, Panama and Costa Rica, the two best markets. I mean both of them. And you'll see when we put more - I think it's probably a good thing, that we're going to put more attention on Panama. And over the next quarters on that to I think - stay tuned, you'll start to see some positive outcomes there.

Operator

Operator

We’ll now move to our next caller and we'll hear from Michael Rollins with Citi.

Michael Rollins

Analyst

I'm curious on two things, if I could, the first could you give us an update on the framework for the overall strategy. If you look out over the next three to five years, how do you think that the evolution of your assets both geographically as well as the product mix that you would like to have in each country or a country on average? And then just secondly, and maybe within this context, as investor try to contemplate where you may go next, can you highlight where your largest priorities are in terms of filling needs for the portfolio or where there might be, just market that you feel like are underpenetrated relative to their natural opportunity set? Thanks.

Balan Nair

Management

Sure, sure Michael, let me start by saying we are very happy with the geography that we are currently in. And I think we are in the best parts of Latin America and Central America and the Caribbean. And we see quite a bit of growth opportunity still, broadband penetration its low fixed broadband, LTE penetration is low, B2B our play in B2B is also low. So we see, if I look over the next couple of three years the levers of growth was, certainly comes from our network expansion. It comes from getting to new products in B2B. We’re quite excited about that. It also comes from the fact that we see lots of opportunities in our existing business on expanding margins in both our OpEx and CapEx. And I say that in the context of especially on CapEx it's not so much that - cut CapEx, because we are still very bullish on building out. It's our cost for builds keeps getting better and better. So there's a number of growth drivers still in front of us on our existing geography, where we would expand would really depend on what's available out there. We are very opportunistic and there are a number of places that we like, but I can clearly tell you where we probably won't be in. We won't probably be in Argentina. We definitely won't be in Venezuela. We are highly unlikely to be in Brazil, but the rest of Latin America - I think you know it's good - it's part of why we're in this region - the thesis is strong.

Operator

Operator

We’ll now move to Soomit Datta with New Street Research.

Soomit Datta

Analyst

Couple of from me please - and just first of all on Chile - and you've guided up on the number of homes perhaps - that's a pretty big increase. I know some of it's in - Costa Rica, but obviously most of it is in Chile. Can you give - just a little bit more color on that please? And then kind of interested in the new expansion areas - and what kind of areas are we talking here? And is that already existing with high-speed coverage, are you - or you going to be the first guy in - this area with a genuine high-speed product? And can you maybe sort of lay a path out for penetration of these new homes - how should we assume a similar rate and over time as - with your existing penetration or is that - maybe they'll be lower or take a little bit longer - if you could give a bit of color there and that would be super helpful? Thank you. And then secondly, if I could, just on Puerto Rico question for Chris really - the EBITDA as you say came on - at a slightly higher number - it's only two months - it's a bit hard to kind of read too much into that maybe. But if I annualize that it’s kind of $336 million - it's probably 10% ahead of where I was at? Is it the kind of a slightly higher base, we should think about going forward or maybe just, are you annualizing two months of contribution? Thank you.

Balan Nair

Management

All right Soomit, - look we'll get to both questions, I'll ask Guillermo also - you know jump in there - here in a bit. We see the runway in Chile to be very promising. It's still - you know we think with at least four to five years more builds that we can do there. The increase home pass that we’ve targeted for 2021 is mostly because we see great opportunity in some of the B, C and even some of the D neighborhoods. And this is mostly because we’ve been able to drive our cost per home passed down very low. And we actually where we’ve done trails where we’ve actually gone in, we’ve seen take rates that sometimes you must have passed where we were at A and B neighborhood. So, it’s quite positive. Then let me ask Guillermo, if you can just add on his view on the commercial front of these new builds.

Guillermo Ponce

Analyst

Yes, thank you, Balan and good morning, Soomit. As Balan pointed out, we see a very exciting opportunity and continue to expand our current $3.8 million footprint to further cities and further municipalities in Chile. We already started doing that during 2020 with close to 190,000 new homes added in - as you can see in the slide deck with very positive results. We are building all our new homes in fiber-to-the-home. And we will continue doing that, providing accessibility and better quality to neighborhoods that historically had not - had such kind of products in the country. So very exciting - opportunity and also very proud of narrowing the digital gap in our country, which is I think that continues to improve over time.

Balan Nair

Management

Thanks Guillermo, maybe Chris can give some on the Puerto Rico OIBDA?

Christopher Noyes

Management

Yes, I think obviously the, two mindset the talent of the year - typically as we have seen in our other businesses Q4 tends to be a pretty strong time for the mobile businesses. So I wouldn't - necessarily suggest annualizing those two months at this point. We did give in balance slide the full year 2020 number. So as a reference point for folks on the OIBDA - revenue and OIBDA side, I would also caveat as we go into 2021. We do have you know the business didn’t come with the back office and standalone costs. We will be incurring those as we operate the business. And as I highlighted in 2021 we have a pretty sizable amount of integration OpEx in the business as well as CapEx. So that that kind of get us moving towards being able to reap the synergies as we look out in year two, year three et cetera. So hopefully that provides a little bit of color for you Soomit.

Soomit Datta

Analyst

It's really helpful. Can’t you - sorry just quickly check the free cash flow guide that is after all of the integration expenses you’ve highlighted?

Christopher Noyes

Management

Most certainly it is.

Operator

Operator

And Matthew Harrigan with Benchmark, has the next question.

Matthew Harrigan

Analyst

If you read the press report I guess - you know Pope Francis want to go back to Argentina although that could actually be Liberty International Day. So I think [indiscernible] working for Tony Werner back in January and kind of droning. I was just curious when you look at the fiber-to-the-home and you're obviously not throwing that out in the more affluent areas I assume? Because just were already picked-off by HSC networks long time ago, but the people were you have apples-to-apples that really conclude the OpEx, CapEx structure is pretty superior. I know this one operator in Denmark and clearly I'll teach you, today’s it’s pretty active. Do you have any comments there? And then as you get a convergence in these technologies and the latency between DOCSIS and 5G and DOCSIS 3.1 down the low milliseconds? Do you feel like there's even more utility for your network for 5G and our 5G is a ways off in some of these markets, but inevitably gets there. And it feels like you've got a great opportunity to having all the quad play, engineering, in-house versus having to take a bit of a hodgepodge approach like some of the U.S. operators? Thank you.

Balan Nair

Management

Matthew, okay. Let me see, if I can - unpack all your questions there. One, I'll start with the fact that HFC is still strong, viable and an amazing network. We are not worried at all competing with fiber-to-the-home where we have HFC. And I'll say that for a couple of reasons one, the plan that we have for the most part all being upgraded to 1 gigahertz and path. So you’ve tremendous amount of capacity on it. Secondly, HFC is actually one of the most reliable as well as very low maintenance type network unlike Christopher, and all these other networks. Now, I'll tell you fiber-to-home obviously is better, but it doesn't mean that you cannot compete. Just look at the United States when you look at Charter and Comcast going up against Verizon, FiOS, AT&T, fiber-to-the-home or Google fiber and you win every day. And we have them for the longest time as well. Now, having said that all our new builds going forward will all be fiber-to-the-home, and that's what we'll do. And we're not doing that for any other reason than one, we've got the cost price point now to where it just make sense to do fiber-to-the-home. Now the second question that you had on 5G backhaul, we have never had plans to use HSC for 5G backhaul, as a matter of fact not even for 4G backhaul. We actually run fiber directly to these sites. So we’ve always used HFC as a consumer play, not necessarily a backhaul B2B play.

Operator

Operator

Now moving to Kevin Roe, Roe Equity Research.

Kevin Roe

Analyst

A couple of questions first on Panama. Do you think, is your crystal ball showing this could be the year for mobile consolidation? And on M&A in general you clearly reiterated your disciplined M&A strategy and the free cash flow accretive benchmark? But has COVID altered your appetite at all or changed your return thresholds for acquisition targets has COVID over the past year bubbled up any new opportunities or closed the doors on some?

Balan Nair

Management

Yes, hey Kevin, on Panama let me say that we've always thought that mobile consolidation that makes sense. And we've all always said to be a buy you have to have a seller. And right now everybody says this, not everybody, but at least a couple said they are sellers. But we've not been able to convince them that selling means actually selling at a price that makes sense to everybody. So as a result not much of move in Panama and, but I remain optimistic over time that it will get rational. And something will break loose there. On the M&A front, you're right, we're very disciplined and to your question does COVID increased opportunity? I think all the opportunities out there are well known and of course - we look at everything that becomes available. We are quite opportunistic. You know levered free cash flow per share remains a key metric. It’s not the only metric. There is quite a few metrics that we look at, but it is one of the key metrics that we look at. And does COVID give us more opportunity or makes us more cautious? No, I think our approach has been the same pre-COVID and post-COVID. If anything on COVID that makes it maybe a little harder it’s because you know where our equity stands. And therefore, returns are judged on a capital allocation basis here, I mean where we have been - and buying back stock if it’s more accretive to us than making the acquisition we do that. And if you look at where our stock is at right now, you need a pretty high hurdle, to justify, allocating capital to an acquisition as opposed to your internal project. And that’s how we look at it and its just straight math for us. And so - and therefore it makes it easy, there is purity in our decision making here that makes it very, very, very non-emotional at all in M&A.

Kevin Roe

Analyst

So, following up on that comment, could we see share repurchases returning at some point in 2021?

Balan Nair

Management

Well, you know the Board has authorized this, I think $100 million in share repurchases over a period of two years. And you see what we are doing with new builds. You’re seeing a lot of things. So if you look at capital allocation - from our first choice of course is always going to be high return internal projects where we put money to work. And then you've got inorganic activity, buybacks, paid on debt doing dividends. The last two is probably very low likelihood in this company. But right now, we've got lots of exciting projects and you can see we're guiding to some pretty nice free cash flow for a very, very tough couple of years.

Operator

Operator

And we'll take our last question today from Nitin Sacheti with Papyrus Capital.

Nitin Sacheti

Analyst

Hi, just expanding on James's question, can you just talk about the subsea business and just how strategic you see in long-term. I mean if you think about that Altice USA multiple on their fiber backbone and your $400 million and 50% EBITDA margin it's effectively the majority of your market cap? So I guess, if you could talk about that as you see this asset a strategic long-term or a source of funding for M&A?

Balan Nair

Management

Hello, Nitin. Thanks for the question. Yes, I think the subsea business clearly right now we're not getting any credit on the some of the parts. And Chris and I've been thinking about this and you know how we crystalized and give people more clear view on the value of this asset. And there are many strategic opportunities in front of us. Clearly, you can imagine if other things trade all the usual suspects are knocking on our doors as well and asking the same question. Listen, what we need to do internally. This is not an easy separation if you want to separate the business, but we're working on at least the first stages of putting the math together and doing some of the legal work and the accounting work. So that people can really see the value of the standalone asset. It is a very strategic asset. It's one of the best assets in the Caribbean and Central America, and it's great technology, a lot of growth potential in it. We've got great customers on it. We are one of the larger customers on it. I think I've got them in my best interest to say this, but I think it's one of the best subsea network. And then when you link it by the way to the B2B deal circuit office. So, on the landing stations we actually expanded off the landing stations. We put in seals teams. We've got a management team that runs it. It's a pretty significant business very well linked. So our sales teams can sell both like an Ethernet product or private line product in a country like Colombia as well as tied back onto a backhaul off a landing station. So it makes a very seamless transition as well. So it's a great asset. It's clear to the management team and I that we probably need to bring better view to do that. But clearly, some of the parts did not reflect this really valuable thing that we have in our portfolio. .

Operator

Operator

And that will conclude today's question-and-answer session. I'd like to turn the call back to Balan Nair, for any additional or closing remarks.

Balan Nair

Management

Thank you, Operator. Well, I'll tell you 2020 was probably one of the hardest years that - my management team and I’ve experienced, just because the nature where we operate. But we started this last year, we started the pandemic period with lots of concerns. We made some moves last year. If you recall we drew down the credit lines. We were really, really worried. I’ll tell you at the end of the year and sitting where we are right now. We could not have imagined being a better spot. Now having said that, I’ll tell you 2021 is still tough. We’ve guided a free cash flow in number. It is not entirely clear that we are out of the woods yet. In many where we operate, there are still curfews in the evenings. There are still lockdowns on weekends. And so, this is not super clear yet, and I imagine cruise ships will not be hitting the oceans in the Caribbean until perhaps November after the hurricane season this year. So our management team is focused on our cost. It’s focused on cash collection. It’s focused on our revenue. It’s focused on where we can find growth and being very creative. It’s focus on getting Panama back in order. It’s focusing getting Chile back on track. These are things that we are focused on our management team and we are convinced - that we can execute. We're not out of the woods. But there’s light at the end of the tunnel. Thank you very much for all your support. And we'll talk to you in 65, 70 days.

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen this will conclude the Liberty Latin America's full year 2020 investor call. As a reminder, a replay of the call will be available on the Investor Relations section of Liberty Latin America's website at www.lla.com. There you could find a copy of today's presentation materials. You may now disconnect.