Earnings Labs

Liberty Latin America Ltd. (LILA)

Q1 2022 Earnings Call· Sat, May 7, 2022

$8.08

-2.24%

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and thank you for standing by. Today's call is being recorded. I'll now turn the call over to Mike Oliver, VP, Global Financial Reporting of Liberty Latin America.

Mike Oliver

Management

Good morning, and welcome to Liberty Latin America's First Quarter 2022 Investor Call. At this time, all participants are in listen-only mode. Today's formal presentation materials can be found under the Investors section of Liberty Latin America's website at www.lla.com. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this call is being recorded and will be available under the Investors section of our website. Today's remarks may include forward-looking statements, including the company's expectations with respect to its outlook and future growth prospects and other information and statements that are not historical fact. Actual results may differ materially from those expressed or implied by these statements. For more information, please refer to the risk factors discussed in Liberty Latin America's most recently filed annual report on Form 10-K and the quarterly report on Form 10-Q most recently filed with the SEC, along with the associated press release. Liberty Latin America disclaims any obligation to update any forward-looking statements or information to reflect any change in its expectations or in the conditions on which any such statement or information is based. In addition, on this call, we will refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures which are reconciled to the most comparable GAAP financial measures, which can be found in the appendices to this presentation, which is accessible under the Investors section of our website. I would now like to turn the call over to our CEO, Mr. Balan Nair.

Balan Nair

Management

Thank you, Mike, and welcome, everybody to Liberty Latin America's first quarter results presentation. I'll begin with our group highlights and an overview of our operating results. Chris Noyes, our CFO, will then follow with a review of the company's financial performance. After that, we will get straight to your questions. As always, I am joined by my executive team from across the region. I will also have our new CTO, Aamir Hussain joining us for this call. I will get him and the rest of the ET involved as needed during the Q&A following our prepared remarks. As a point of housekeeping, we will both be working from slides, which you can find on our website at www.lla.com. Starting on Slide 4 and our highlights for the quarter. Revenue was up by 1% on a rebased basis. This was a solid start to the year for the group, driven by strong performances in Costa Rica and C&W, which grew by 9% and 5%, respectively, and also a robust subscription revenue growth in Puerto Rico. In mobile, we are seeing strong results from our commercial focus on postpaid and delivered a record 121,000 ads in the quarter, significantly higher year-over-year. We are on track with our integration of previously acquired operations in Puerto Rico and Costa Rica, and this remains an important driver of our future free cash flow growth with over $85 million in synergies anticipated once these businesses are fully integrated. The transactions in Panama and Chile, which we expect to drive further value, continue to progress towards its completion in line with previous expected time lines. Finally, we have accelerated our buyback activity with over $55 million of shares repurchased in the first quarter, which is our most active quarter today. Turning to Slide 5 and our…

Christopher Noyes

Management

Thanks, Balan. In the first quarter, our revenue was $1.2 billion, reflecting a $54 million year-over-year increase. This was driven by the acquisition of the Telefónica asset in Costa Rica and organic growth. These 2 factors were countered by adverse currency movements especially with respect to the Chilean peso, which impacted our U.S. dollar reported results. As Balan highlighted, we delivered modest rebased growth of 1% for the quarter, led by B2B and slightly positive rebased growth across both residential and mobile subscription revenue. In terms of our operating units, Costa Rica and C&W Caribbean & Networks were our best rebased performers in the quarter. Turning to adjusted OIBDA. We delivered $440 million in Q1, reflecting a rebased decline of 2%, of which a roughly percentage point of the decline is attributable to the impact of integration costs. Similar to revenue, Costa Rica and C&W Caribbean & Networks posted strong rebased growth on the back of subscriber volume gains over the last 12 months, which was more than offset by declines in Chile, Panama and Puerto Rico. In the third section, our P&E additions were $175 million in Q1 or 14% of revenue. Nearly 80% of our quarterly spend was directed to CPE, new build, upgrade and capacity. Importantly, we expanded our new build and upgrade by over 30% in the quarter as compared to Q1 last year, reaching 167,000 homes. This build is virtually all fiber-based and across each of our operating segments. We incurred about $8 million of integration CapEx in the quarter and expect to incur about $40 million in Puerto Rico and Costa Rica for 2022. In the last chart, and consistent with the statement we made on our Q4 call, we delivered negative $57 million of adjusted FCF in the quarter. As a reminder, our…

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from the line of Mathieu Robilliard with Barclays.

Mathieu Robilliard

Analyst · Barclays

Yes. I had a question about Chile and some maybe read across to other geographies. So your business in Chile, the cable business historically, as I understand it was a highly premium product, great content, great service and correspondingly very good ARPU levels. And obviously, over the past few years, things have changed. And I understand the pandemic didn't help, but I was trying to understand if part of the change was explained by the fact that maybe the plant wasn't as competitive as one could have thought compared to fiber, which has been developing in Chile. So that was the first part of the question. But the second part was, is there any other geographies where you feel that maybe there could be increased competition from fiber-based competition and where you are exposed through a cable network that may not be as robust as a fiber product.

Balan Nair

Management

And it's a good question and one that we've been thinking about. And we've analyzed pretty significantly. I'll give you -- here's how we think about this. In Chile, as you recall, we've grown this business dramatically in a 4-player market. And 2 of the other players in the 4-player market were fiber providers for the longest time, and we want every day of the week, every week of the month. Something changed since then. And what changed really is when we -- there were 2 additional competitors that came to the market. So a 4-player market went to a 6-player market. And by the way, today, it's a 7-player market. And what happens in a 7-player market is that you have a lot of stranded capacity, meaning you have a lot of folks that either build fiber, build infrastructure and running pretty close to MT networks that have to fill in. And therefore, their contribution margin for those infrastructure is extremely positive at whatever level dollars you charge for it. And so the challenge we have in Chile is not so much an infrastructure technology issue. Our product there is 500 megabits on broadband. Our video product is probably the best in class. We even have HBO in our basic lineup there. we have CDF, the football league. We have all the great programming. The challenge, of course, is really on pricing. And we experimented with this in the month of March, where we took our pricing down. We didn't even go to the lowest price in the market. We just took it down to the third lowest price in the market. And as I indicated earlier, we added about 100,000 RGUs in 1 month. It was our best month ever, which goes to show that and most of…

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Soomit Datta with New Street Research.

Soomit Datta

Analyst · Soomit Datta with New Street Research

Yes. One question to start with, please. Just on postpaid wireless, you've featured that quite heavily in the -- in the earnings slide. I was just curious what sort of uplift are you seeing as ARPU when you're migrating from prepaid to postpaid? You've got different markets with different levels of postpaid penetration, Puerto Rico's high, Caribbean is low. Where I guess when might we see some of those penetration numbers where they're lower kind of moving up? And then just kind of finally is 5G relevant on any sort of near-term horizon in any of these markets? That would be the first question, please.

Balan Nair

Management

Sure, Soomit. We are actually quite excited about our postpaid growth for a couple of reasons. As you pointed out, the ARPU is higher, and it's quite a bit higher than prepaid, but more importantly, it's very predictable and stable cash flow. And finally, actually, my general counsel reminded me as well earlier this week that in addition to that, we get better visibility of our customers with postpaid over the prepaid cards. So we get better visibility of our customers. It's more stable. It's very predictable cash flow, and it is a higher ARPU. Having said that, this region is mostly a prepaid region. It has taken us a few years to really push for this migration to postpaid. And a lot of our managers here have a deep experience in FMC and we've used that as a way to get people to move, but we've also incentivized and played with our prepaid pricing to make it more attractive for someone who tops up every month to go move to the postpaid products. And we are actually quite happy with that migration, but we're in early days. And I suspect there is a cap to that. It's probably -- we'll never get to like in the Western countries of like 70%, 80% postpaid, will be certainly south of 50%. I'm not really sure where the number ends, but we're hoping if we can get to even 30%, 40% postpaid, we'd be sitting pretty good. On 5G, as you know, we've launched 5G in Puerto Rico, and we are doing pretty well there. Handsets are readily available. And it's a product that we have that is, I think, best-in-class on the island. And as I look at the rest of our region, it's a tail wagging a dog, I guess. I'm not too terribly sure if we would be investing a lot in 5G, handsets are not readily available. It is expensive. If you recall when we first started this journey, we just needed people to get to 4G. And even then 4G penetration is still not anywhere close to Western countries. And -- so we're still focusing a lot on capacity, pushing more 4G handsets out there. And we may do a few 5G trials in some cities, in metro areas, but no modern trials, but launching in some metro areas, but -- we don't see any of our other operations where we'll go countrywide, 5G. I'll wait until the handsets available -- it would not be good capital spend to be ahead of the game on this one.

Soomit Datta

Analyst · Soomit Datta with New Street Research

Okay. That's great. Just a quick follow-up then on wireless still, but just looking at Panama. Interested to get your thoughts on the announcement of Digicel looking to exit the market. I suppose one thing we're curious is we're still seeing kind of subscriber losses there. We're still seeing revenues down a little bit in Panama. I think there was a reference to maybe the sort of external environment. Do you mind -- putting all of that into context would be really helpful.

Balan Nair

Management

Sure. I'll ask Guillermo, our General Manager for that region to be ready to answer the second question as well. On digital -- I'll tell you this, with our announcement of the Claro acquisition, we've moved from a 4-player market to a 3-player market, and that was necessary in Panama. And -- yes -- so yes, it's moved from a 4-player market to a 3-player market, and we feel that's just right for that market. And vis-a-vis Digicel, we probably shouldn't comment on what's going on with them and the options. I'll ask Guillermo to jump in on the prepaid to postpaid revenue on the mobile side.

Guillermo Ponce

Analyst · Soomit Datta with New Street Research

Yes. Thank you, Balan. And Soomit, in Panama, we see a slightly decline in the total revenue mix when you compare Q1 last year with Q1 this year. And that's a tale of 2 stories. Number one, the prepaid revenue has been somewhat impacted by a very intense competition that is somewhat impacting the recharge activity. And this is why we see when we compare year-to-year. On the flip side, we see very strong postpaid additions to your earlier question. Our strategy has been focused on getting stronger in postpaid to get all the benefits that Balan depicted, a more stable revenue stream. I would add one more additional value of the postpaid migration, which is the ability to do FMC, the ability to cross-sell a known customer on the postpaid side with fixed services as well strategy that we are pushing in Panama with very good results. Having said all that, we do see over the last few months a stabilization of the prepaid activity measured by the -- call it, the amount of cannibalization that occurs in the market once all competitors are going very aggressively and self-cannibalizing the recharge activity. Hopefully, that was helpful for you.

Soomit Datta

Analyst · Soomit Datta with New Street Research

That's great. And maybe just a very quick follow-up just on Digicel. I mean, if they've got assets for sale, I'm not sure how it all works, but if they do exit spectrum and towers, I guess, and maybe some infrastructure. Is that sort of something you'd be interested in looking at?

Balan Nair

Management

Soomit, at this point, we're just focused on closing our transaction with Claro, and we really haven't paid much attention to what's going on with Digicel. At some point in the future, we will look at that, but not right now.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Your next question comes from the line of Matthew Harrigan with Benchmark.

Matthew Harrigan

Analyst · Matthew Harrigan with Benchmark

I was curious if you had any thoughts on the video evolution in your markets, given everything that's happening in the U.S. with all IP Comcast and Charter. And then I think initially and more in Mexico and the U.S., Televisa launching VIX on an AVOD as well as an SVOD basis. What are the implications for your broadband business as well? And I think at one point, you even talked about having more flexibility for a more modest income demographic off an IP video offering, if I'm not mistaken.

Balan Nair

Management

Thanks, Matt. On the video front, interestingly enough, that announcement by Charter and Comcast and the Flexbox. We've actually launched a similar product 1.5 year ago. But we did not use the RDK platform, which is what Comcast and Charter is doing, which makes absolute sense for them. For us, what we did was we went down the Android path and we launched this now in Puerto Rico, in Costa Rica, in Panama, and we'll soon launch this in a couple of the other islands, Trinidad, Jamaica. It's an all IP box, very similar to the Flexbox. It doesn't take up any [indiscernible] signals. It's -- and we feel really good about it and the price have come down quite a bit as well on that. And of course, we've been also experimenting with putting that same because it's all IP and the same technology on other devices like [indiscernible]and Chrome dongles. So we’ve weighed down that path. Now we’ve also looked recently at our video strategy, and we’ve come to the conclusion that while the video product will – it’s not a huge growth driver for us, it is a necessary product for us to continue to be a leader in broadband. And so you sell your broadband product, you ship out this cheap IP box that goes with it, whether it’s a box that we ship our ourselves, so they can bring a fire stick to it. And – but you have a video associated product together with that broadband. And it seems to resonate with a lot of our customers, not all of our customers. We still sell a lot of solo broadband product, but there are a subset of customers that would buy broadband from us only if we have the video product. So we’re innovating on those technologies and we feel pretty good on the path that we are.

Matthew Harrigan

Analyst · Matthew Harrigan with Benchmark

And I guess the legitimate follow-up on that. What are your thoughts on AVOD versus SVOD in Latin America? I mean, Netflix actually was very sluggish in Lat Am last quarter, and Televisa is obviously very excited about their ViX product. I mean, do you think it’s going to evolve to much more of an AVOD centric market than in the U.S.? Or do you think the jury is still out?

Balan Nair

Management

I’ll share my personal opinion. I – at least in our region, I shouldn’t speak for any other region, AVOD is not an easy product to develop. And I think if you – which is why a lot of the big West Coast companies have stuck to the SVOD story. And I think it’s similar in our region for sure. I think for companies that are in the advertising business, they’ve lived that, know it really well. I think they can make a go at it. But certainly not businesses like ours – we’re perfectly happy with an SVOD product associated with a device. And if somebody wants to add an AVOD to it, the way we develop our Android platform, we can put almost anybody on it, even an AVOD service on it.

Matthew Harrigan

Analyst · Matthew Harrigan with Benchmark

Thanks for jogging my memory and what you already did 18 months ago, a little embarrassed. I didn’t recall that immediately. Thanks, Balan.

Balan Nair

Management

Sure. Thanks, Matt. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

That will conclude today's question-and-answer session. I'd like to hand back to Balan Nair for any additional or closing remarks.

Balan Nair

Management

Thank you. And I'd say, first quarter, we feel -- we started off well, not as great as previous first quarters, but as we've kind of explained, I think if you go through our numbers, you can see the puts and takes. The underlying business is robust. It's still good. It's strong. We expect the rest of the year to continue to be strong. We continue to monitor Chile. Chile is unique. And I want to reiterate, I think -- the rationale for us to do what we did in Chile, what we announced last year between Claro and us. I think for both our companies, it continues to make sense, actually, even more sense. And I think once we get consolidation going in Chile, things get better, we still remain bullish in that market, even though -- if you look at it now, you scratch your head on it. But I think over the next couple of 3 years, with consolidation and rationality in that market, things will get better there as well. But if you subtract Chile off it, you look at our underlying business, I think we've got a good thing going here. So thank you, everybody, for your support, and we'll talk to you again next quarter.

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes Liberty Latin America's First Quarter 2022 Investor Call. As a reminder, a replay of the call will be available in the Investor Relations section of Liberty Latin America's website at www.lla.com. There, you can also find a copy of today's presentation materials. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.