Alan Lowe
Analyst · JPMorgan. Please go ahead
Sure. I'd say first half going through the different product areas. As we said, Q4, we see Telecom and Datacom growth in Q4. We expect Telecom to continue to grow in the first half, but moderately from the exit rate of Q4. Datacom is going to continue to be hampered, from our perspective and expectations, around 5G rollout in China. And one of the reasons we had that revenue deferral in the third quarter is the inventory in the various stages of deployment is moving very slowly. So we don't expect that to pick up. And as we said, the DML year-on-year reduction in Q4 is about $20 million. So we expect that to continue to be a drag on our Datacom business. Offsetting that is the increased capacity we're putting in place on EMLs. And so we should see modest increases in EMLs but overall Datacom will be down in the first half. Commercial lasers is continuing to see a recovery from the pandemic. And as we said, we expect that we will, by the middle of our fiscal year, be back to pre-pandemic levels. So we'll see moderate growth in lasers, and then as we said also, our expectation, given the 3D sensing market being smaller by 20% to 25%, mainly due to design decisions that some of our customers have made around smaller chips, and smaller chips lead to smaller average content per device. And so that's probably the bigger drag on the first half expectations. As far as second half and why we're confident that we'll see a rebound, I think, if you look across our product portfolio, our design wins are phenomenal. Our team has done a fabulous job on our high port counted contentionless ROADMs. Those are designed in and we talked about new designs in the West. And so from our perspective, we are very much poised for a rebound. Now that might happen before the end of the calendar year, but our expectations are that this is modest, and then in the second half of the fiscal year, that picks up. Also in the second half of the year, our capacity will be coming online for our EMLs, and that is going quite well. We talked about that two or three quarters ago, that's in motion, and we expect that our EMLs due to our highly differentiated products. And the orders that we talked about in Q3, we expect to capture major market share on our EML business on the 200- and 400-gig products and then, again, continued growth in lasers. And then the 3D sensing is, again, a market issue that I think we'll all see on that one.