Operator
Operator
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. And welcome to the Eli Lilly Q1 2017 Earnings Call. For the conference, all the participants are in a listen-only mode. There will be an opportunity for your questions. Instructions will be given at that time. As a reminder, today's call is being recorded. I'll turn the conference now over to your host, Mr. Dave Ricks. Please go ahead, sir. David A. Ricks - Eli Lilly & Co.: Good morning. Thank you for joining Eli Lilly & Company's First Quarter 2017 Earnings Call. I'm Dave Ricks, Lilly's President and CEO. Joining me on today's call are Derica Rice, our Chief Financial Officer; Dr. Jan Lundberg, President of Lilly Research Labs; Enrique Conterno, President of Lilly Diabetes and Lilly USA.; Dr. Sue Mahoney, President of Lilly Oncology; Jeff Simmons, President of Elanco Animal Health; and I'd like to extend a special welcome to Christi Shaw, who joined us earlier this month as President of Lilly Bio-Medicines. We're also joined by Kristina Wright, Chris Ogden and Phil Johnson of the IR team. During this conference call, we anticipate making projections and forward-looking statements based on our current expectations. Our actual results could differ materially due to a number of factors, including those listed on Slide three and as outlined in our latest Forms 10-K and 10-Q filed with the SEC. The information we provide about our products and pipelines is for the benefit of the investment community; it is not intended to be promotional and it is not sufficient for prescribing decisions. Before discussing key events for the quarter, I'll start with a summary of our progress on our strategic objectives since our earnings call in January. Starting with grow revenue. Q1, we generated worldwide revenue growth of 7%, which was driven by 9% volume growth in our pharmaceutical business, led by our new products. On our strategic objective of expand margins, our non-GAAP gross margin percent, excluding the effect of FX on international inventory sold, increased by nearly 220 basis points compared to Q1 2016. And total operating expenses as a percent of revenue also declined by nearly 220 basis points. Under the heading of sustaining the flow of innovation, we launched baricitinib under the trade name Olumiant in Europe for rheumatoid arthritis. While here in the U.S., we were disappointed to receive the complete response letter from the FDA for baricitinib in RA. We remain confident the benefit-risk of baricitinib as a new treatment option for adults with moderate-to-severe rheumatoid arthritis, and we will work with the FDA to determine a path forward to ultimately bring baricitinib to patients in the U.S. And as I'll discuss in more detail later, we had a positive Phase 3 read-out for abemaciclib, for Taltz and for Cyramza. Finally, on deploying capital to create value, we completed the acquisition of CoLucid Pharmaceuticals, which adds lasmiditan for acute migraine to our late-stage pipeline. And we returned over $500 million to shareholders via our dividend. Our continued progress in 2017 keeps us on track to achieve our mid-term goals for each of our strategic objectives. Now let's go to slide five for a more detailed review of the key events that occurred since our last earnings call. On the commercial front, here in the U.S. in collaboration with Boehringer Ingelheim we launched Synjardy XR, a once-daily combination tablet containing empagliflozin and extended-release metformin for the treatment of adults with type 2 diabetes. As I mentioned earlier, we launched Olumiant in Europe for the treatment of moderate-to-severe rheumatoid arthritis, following European Commission approval earlier this year. On the regulatory front, U.S. FDA issued a complete response letter for baricitinib for rheumatoid arthritis. The letter indicated that the FDA was unable to approve the application in its current form. Specifically, the FDA indicated that additional clinical data are needed to determine the most appropriate doses and to further characterize safety concerns. Lilly and Incyte disagree with the Agency's conclusion, and we look forward to meeting with the FDA in the coming months to determine appropriate next steps. We'll provide you status updates after we meet with the FDA. Also here in the U.S., the FDA approved an update to the Trulicity label to include use in combination with basal insulin for adults with type 2 diabetes. And in Europe, along with Boehringer Ingelheim, we received European Commission approval of an update to the Synjardy label to include a change to the indication statement as well as data from the EMPA-REG OUTCOME trial on the reduction of cardiovascular death. On the clinical front, we announced that MONARCH 2 is a Phase 3 trial of abemaciclib in combination with fulvestrant in women with HR+ and HER2- breast cancer met its primary endpoint of improved progression-free survival. We look forward to presenting data from this study at ASCO in early June. And we'll hold a call the evening of Saturday, June 3 to discuss these results with the investment community. Finally, we've decided to move the FDA submission of MONARCH 2 from the previously announced timing of Q3 up in to Q2. And just yesterday we announced that the MONARCH 3 study with abemaciclib met its primary endpoint at an interim analysis, demonstrating that women with HR+, HER2- advanced breast cancer who had not received prior systemic therapy experienced a statistically significant improvement in PFS with treatment with abemaciclib plus an aromatase inhibitor compared to placebo plus an aromatase inhibitor. The improvement was also shown in a key secondary endpoint of objective response rate. We intend to begin global regulatory submissions of these results in Q3 2017. For the RAINFALL study of ramucirumab in first-line gastric cancer, the independent data monitoring committee recently met to review the primary analysis. While we remain blinded to the data, we're pleased to report that the IBMC stated that the study met its primary endpoint of improved progression-free survival. Consistent with our prior communications, our expectation remains that regulatory submissions could occur after we have the final overall survival data in 2018. At the American Academy of Dermatology Meeting, we presented Phase 3 data showing that patients with moderate-to-severe plaque psoriasis treated with ixekizumab, or Taltz, demonstrated superior efficacy at 24 weeks compared to patients treated with Stelara. And along with Boehringer Ingelheim, we initiated two Phase 3 studies of Jardiance for the treatment of chronic heart failure. These trials will enroll patients with and without diabetes and with both preserved as well as reduced ejection fraction heart failure. Moving to slide six. As I mentioned earlier in business development news, we completed the addition of CoLucid Pharmaceuticals. In other news, in Japan, the IP High Court ruled in our favor in the invalidation trials initiated by Sawai regarding our vitamin regimen patents for Alimta. If the patents are ultimately upheld through all the challenges, they could provide intellectual property protection for Alimta in Japan until June of 2021. To support the increased demand for our products in our pipeline, we announced plans to invest $850 million in our U.S. operations in 2017, including research laboratories, manufacturing facilities and some administrative areas. We also distributed over $500 million to shareholders via the dividend. Now I'll turn the call over to Phil for a discussion of our financial performance for the quarter. Philip Johnson - Eli Lilly & Co.: Thanks, Dave. Slide seven summarizes our presentation of GAAP results and non-GAAP measures, while slide eight provides a summary of our GAAP results. I'll focus my comments on our non-GAAP adjusted measures to provide insights into underlying trends in our business, so please refer to today's earnings press release for a detailed description of the year-on-year changes in our first quarter GAAP results. Looking at the non-GAAP measures on slide nine, you can see that Q1 2017 revenue increased 7% compared to Q1 2016, reaching $5.2 billion. Gross margin as a percent of revenue was 78.1%, an increase of 180 basis points over Q1 2016. The effect of foreign exchange rates on international inventories sold resulted in a benefit to both this year's and last year's quarter, with the benefit being slightly larger last year. Excluding this FX effect, our gross margin percent increased by nearly 220 basis points, going from 74.9% in last year's quarter to 77.1% this quarter, driven by manufacturing efficiencies. Total operating expense increased 3% compared to Q1 of 2016. This increase is lower than the increase in revenue, leading total operating expense as a percent of revenue to decline by nearly 220 basis points, to 53.2%. Looking at the component parts of total operating expense, marketing, selling and administrative expenses increased 5%, while R&D expenses increased just 1%. In marketing, selling and administrative expenses, higher spending to support new products is partially offset by lower spending on late lifecycle products. Other income and expense was income of $50 million this quarter compared to $55 million reported in last year's quarter. Our tax rate was 21.2%, an increase of 3.3 percentage points compared to the same quarter last year. This increase was primarily due to the net discreet tax benefit of approximately $50 million in last year's Q1. At the bottom line, net income and earnings per share both increased 18%. We achieved this significant earnings growth by delivering high-single digit volume-based revenue growth, while improving our gross margin percent and reducing our OpEx percent, creating positive leverage. Slide 10 provides a reconciliation between reported and non-GAAP EPS, and you'll find additional details on these adjustments on slide 22. Now let's take a look at the effect of price, rate and volume on revenue growth. On slide 11 in the gray highlighted row at the bottom of the table, you'll see the 7% revenue growth I mentioned earlier. The effect of foreign exchange on revenue growth was minimal this quarter. Excluding the slight headwind from FX, our worldwide revenue growth on our performance basis was 8% and was driven entirely by volume. By geography, you'll notice that U.S. pharma revenue increased 16%, driven primarily by volume. Trulicity was the main driver of U.S. volume growth, with meaningful contributions also coming from Taltz and Lartruvo. The decline in European human pharmaceutical revenue of 5% was driven by the negative effect of price and unfavorable foreign exchange movements, partially offset by higher volume. On a constant currency or performance basis, European revenue decreased 1%. This performance decrease was driven primarily by Cymbalta and Alimta, partially offset by the uptake of new products, led by Trulicity. In Japan, despite a large negative impact from the entry of generic Zyprexa last June, pharma revenue increased 5%. This increase was driven by a 6% benefit from higher volumes and, to a lesser extent, from a stronger yen, partially offset by a 4% negative price effect from last year's biannual price cuts. On a constant-currency basis, Japan pharma revenue increased 3%. While excluding Zyprexa, Japan pharma revenue in Q1 grew 16% on a constant-currency basis, led by Cyramza, with meaningful contributions from Cymbalta and Trulicity. Turning to our pharma revenue in the Rest of World, or RoW, revenue this quarter increased 2%, as volume growth of 7% was largely offset by lower prices and the negative effect of FX. On a performance basis, RoW revenue increased 4%, as growth in Humalog, Trulicity, Trajenta, Cyramza and Jardiance was partially offset by lower sales of Cymbalta, Alimta and Cialis. Turning to Animal Health, this quarter worldwide revenue increased 2%, driven by higher volume for our acquisition of Boehringer Ingelheim Vetmedica's U.S. vaccine business. The effect of FX as well as price was minimal. Excluding the BI Vetmedica vaccines acquisition, the rest of our Animal Health revenue decreased 3%. As we've done in recent quarters, let's now take a look at the drivers of our worldwide volume growth on slide 12. As I mentioned earlier, excluding FX, our worldwide revenue grew 8% this quarter, driven by an 8% increase in volume. In total, our new products comprised of Trulicity, Cyramza, Jardiance, Taltz, Basaglar, Lartruvo, Portrazza, and now Olumiant in the EU, were again engines of our worldwide volume growth. You can see that these products drove 10.1 percentage points of volume growth this quarter. Humalog contributed 50 basis points, Trajenta contributed 40 basis points and Animal Health, due to the BI Vetmedica U.S. vaccines acquisition, contributed 30 basis points of volume growth. Lower Cialis volume provided a headwind of 90 basis points, primarily due to lower volume in the U.S. as a result of a decline in the overall ED market as well as increased use of off-label generic sildenafil. Alimta trimmed 1.1 percentage points from our volume growth, due primarily to competitive pressure in the U. S., while a loss of exclusivity for Zyprexa, Cymbalta and Evista provided a drag of 1.8 percentage points. Now let me turn the call over to Derica. Derica W. Rice - Eli Lilly & Co.: Thanks, Phil. As in prior quarters, I'll start by sharing some color on our new product launches. As you can see on the graph on slide 13, our new products generated over $800 million in revenue this quarter, led by Trulicity and Cyramza. This represents over 15% of our total worldwide revenue, up from 12% last quarter. And as Phil mentioned earlier, these products drove 10.1 percentage points of our worldwide volume growth this quarter. Trulicity performance continues to be strong and is benefiting from the both growing market share and a rapidly expanding GLP-1 class. In the U.S., we're pleased that our new-to-brand share with endocrinologists, which we view as a key leading indicator, is comparable to Victoza. We've also recently expanded our efforts to reach primary care physicians and are encouraged by the early results. Cyramza continues to grow globally, driven largely by Japan, where we're seeing strong adoption in gastric cancer and, more recently, have seen uptake in both lung and colorectal cancer. O-U.S. markets now account for nearly two-thirds of our worldwide Cyramza sales, and we look forward to continued O-U.S. growth. U.S. Cyramza sales declined this quarter, largely due to pressure from IO agents in non-small cell lung cancer. Moving to Jardiance. In the U.S., we're pleased that our new-to-therapy share with both endocrinologists and primary care physicians has increased substantially since the FDA approval of the CV indication and the update to the ADA's diabetes treatment guideline. In absolute terms, Jardiance new-to-therapy volume has increased by 75% since we began active promotion of the new CV indication. We continue to see rapid uptake of Taltz as well as continued strong growth of the IL-17A class in psoriasis. We're excited that our new-to-brand share of market with dermatologists, a proxy for use in psoriasis, exceeds that of Enbrel and Cosentyx. On Basaglar, we launched here in the U.S. in mid-December and are seeing strong uptake early this year, largely driven by switching in high controlled PBM formularies. U.S. new-to-brand share of market is approaching Levemir and exceeds that both Tresiba and Toujeo. In Q4, we also launched Lartruvo for soft tissue sarcoma in the U.S. and in early launch markets in Europe and this quarter have begun to launch in select rest of world countries. We're excited by initial physician feedback and the potential of this molecule to help patients with soft tissue sarcoma. Finally, earlier this quarter, we launched Olumiant in Europe, with this quarter's sales representing initial stocking in Germany. We are pleased with the initial customer feedback and we see great potential for this molecule in Europe. Moving to slide 14, you'll see that changes in foreign exchange rates had a modest effect on our Q1 2017 results. Growth in non-GAAP EPS was 18% including the effect of FX and 22% in constant currency terms. Moving on to our pipeline update. Slide 15 shows our NME pipeline as of April 18. We had positive movement which included: the European approval of Olumiant, the addition of Lasmitidan for acute migraine treatment via our acquisition of CoLucid; initiation of human testing for our long-acting insulin; and termination of development of a Phase 1 diabetes asset. In our NILEX pipeline on slide 16, you'll see the initiation in collaboration with Boehringer Ingelheim of the Phase 3 heart failure program for empagliflozin as well as the initiation of Phase 2 work with abemaciclib in pancreatic cancer. Now turning to slide 17. Let's recap the recent progress we've made on the key events we projected for 2017. Since our last call, we've added checkmarks for: the initiation of the EMPEROR studies of empagliflozin for heart failure in collaboration with Boehringer Ingelheim; the positive PFS readout for the ramucirumab RAINFALL trial; the U.S. submission of ixekizumab for psoriatic arthritis; the EU approval of baricitinib for rheumatoid arthritis; the closing of the CoLucid acquisition; and the favorable Japanese Supreme Court ruling upholding our Alimta IP. We've also added a red checkmark for the FDA's complete response letter for baricitinib. You will also see that we've moved the MONARCH-3 data readout from the internal readouts to the external disclosure section based on the positive interim analysis that will allow us to present the data at a medical meeting in the second half of the year. We've also added potential key events for the global regulatory submissions of the abemaciclib MONARCH-3 data, the readout and likely presentation at a medical meeting later this year for the second Phase 3 trial of lasmiditan, and for the potential FDA action on the SBLA for ixekizumab for psoriatic arthritis. Turning to our 2017 financial guidance on slide 18. Our expectations for 2017 are largely unchanged from our last update in late January. You'll see that our non-GAAP line item guidance remains the same. However, we have adjusted our GAAP EPS guidance, primarily due to the global severance charges related to actions to improve our cost structure. Before we go to the Q&A session, let me briefly sum up. 2017 is off to a strong start. Led by our new products, worldwide revenue grew 7%. By driving improvements in our cost structure, we leveraged that top-line growth into 18% non-GAAP EPS growth, or 22% growth when excluding FX. While we're disappointed with the delay of baricitinib here in the U.S., we continue to have strong momentum behind our innovation-based strategy. Since our last earnings call, we've launched Olumiant in Europe and had positive Phase 3 readouts for abemaciclib, Taltz and Cyramza. We also closed the CoLucid acquisition, bolstering our Phase 3 pipeline with the addition of lasmiditan. Going forward, our management team will remain focused on: launching new products with excellence, reloading our late-stage pipeline, driving increased productivity to expand our operating margins, and investing in the core drivers of our business – talent, scientific capabilities and technology platforms to ensure our future growth prospects. Now, this concludes our prepared remarks. I'll turn the call over to Phil to moderate the Q&A session. Phil? Philip Johnson - Eli Lilly & Co.: Thanks, Derica. We would like to take as many questions from callers as we can. So I would ask that you limit your questions to two or a single two-part question. And we thank you in advance for collaborating with this request. John, if you could go ahead and provide the instructions for the Q&A session, and then we're ready for the first caller.