Jeff Simmons
Analyst · Cowen. Please go ahead
Yes, a few things, David, kind of at a higher level on animal health. I would say that our Q4 results were consistent with our expectations we set. In guidance in December, we specifically said then that we expect 2018 revenues to be flat to slightly increasing versus 2017, and the other note I would make is fourth quarter revenue decreased 7% excluding FX, and this was driven by volume, but importantly we’re starting to see a return to price growth in the market and we increased 1% in the fourth quarter. So when you look to growth and look to modeling, I would say this - again, 2017 clean food and competition, we underestimated the impact of that. That’s what’s impacted and driven our results, and some competitive pressures in the companion animal market. So for 2018 specifically, we forecast revenue growth to be flat to slightly up, we expect 2018 to be a year of transition as we continue to evolve our product mix against headwinds, we see slightly negative growth in the first half of 2018 primarily from the continuing impact of clean food, however the second half of the year we expect our eight launches, and I’ll touch on those here, will drive top line growth. So within the portfolio we expect low to mid single digit growth in companion animals offset by low to single digit decline in food animals. As Dave noted, I think we will see Galliprant continue to grow. We’re seeing close to 30% quarter-on-quarter growth in the canine pain market, we’re up to 12% market share. We see that being a key growth driver. I would combine that with last year’s launch of Interceptor Plus and the share that we’ve taken from HeartGard would be another big driver for our business, and then we continue to see our companion animal parasiticide broader portfolio - Credelio, our first tick-flea launch, that is going on this quarter in all three major markets, Japan, Europe and the U.S., so Credelio would be the third. Then on the food animal side, we continue to see our vaccine portfolio that we acquired from Lohmann in salmonella, with vaccines being a key growth driver as well. So hopefully that gives you a little guidance on our food and companion animal business first half, second half of the year, and again I would emphasize flat to slightly growing in ’18.