Earnings Labs

Lincoln National Corporation (LNC)

Q2 2016 Earnings Call· Thu, Aug 4, 2016

$37.08

-0.78%

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning, and thank you for joining Lincoln Financial Group's second quarter 2016 earnings conference call. At this time, all lines are in listen-only mode. Later, we will announce the opportunity for questions and instructions will be given at that time. Now I would like to turn the conference over to the Senior Vice President of Investor Relations, Chris Giovanni. Please go ahead, sir. Christopher A. Giovanni - Senior Vice President & Head-Investor Relations: Thank you, Vince. Good morning, and welcome to Lincoln Financial's second quarter earnings call. Before I begin, we have an important reminder. Any comments made during the call regarding future expectations, trends and market conditions, including comments about sales and deposits, expenses, income from operations, share repurchases and liquidity and capital resources, are forward-looking statements under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from current expectations. These risks and uncertainties are described in the Cautionary Statement disclosures in our earnings release issued yesterday and our Reports on Forms 8-K, 10-Q, and 10-K filed with the SEC. We appreciate your participation today and invite you to visit Lincoln's website, www.lincolnfinancial.com, where you can find our press release and statistical supplement, which include a full reconciliation of the non-GAAP measures used in the call, including income from operations and return on equity to the most comparable GAAP measures. So presenting on today's call are Dennis Glass, President and Chief Executive Officer, and Randy Freitag, Chief Financial Officer. After their prepared remarks, we will move to the question-and-answer portion of the call. I would now like to turn the call over to Dennis. Dennis R. Glass - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Thank you, Chris, and good morning, everyone. As we anticipated,…

Operator

Operator

Thank you, sir. Our first question is from Suneet Kamath of UBS. Your line is open.

Suneet L. Kamath - UBS Securities LLC

Analyst · UBS. Your line is open

Thanks. Good morning. Dennis, I wanted to start with the VA new business. Obviously, flat quarter to quarter, even with the market recovery. I guess my question is, do we need to see some real significant product innovation there in terms of guarantees perhaps being a little bit more generous in order to get a rebound in sales here? Dennis R. Glass - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Suneet, as I said, we attribute the decline in VA sales to the volatility in equity markets. You see the same type of decline in sales volume for mutual funds. And so there's this outside volatility that is affecting our sales levels. The response to that that I also mentioned in my remarks is that we do want to create some innovative products, not products that necessarily have richer benefits. I think the whole industry would be reluctant to do that right now because low interest rates really limit your flexibility on that. But we see real growth opportunities in expanding our products that are sold with fees. We see real opportunities – that's a consumer and an advisor preference. We also see opportunities to improve our offerings of passive investment options. We also see the opportunity to use digitization in making the sales process more easy and intuitive, products simpler. And so those are the kind of actions that we're taking and we think that they will have a significant impact on sales as we get into 2017. Trying to do all of that stuff takes time. And as we get into 2017, we think we'll have an impact through those actions.

Suneet L. Kamath - UBS Securities LLC

Analyst · UBS. Your line is open

Okay. And then just similar question on the Life Insurance side. Are you already starting to reprice the business, given the decline in the rates, or is that something you are considering at this point, but you haven't actually started the process? Dennis R. Glass - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Suneet, we've been changing pricing on products in reaction to declining interest rates for years now. I'm not quite sure what the product launch is time-wise, but I can promise you that if something is not achieving its return, it's being repriced as we speak and will be launched when we can get the repricing done and get it up on our systems.

Suneet L. Kamath - UBS Securities LLC

Analyst · UBS. Your line is open

All right. Thanks, Dennis.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question is from Ryan Krueger of KBW. Your line is open, sir. Ryan Krueger - Keefe, Bruyette & Woods, Inc.: Thanks. Good morning. I had a question on the RBC ratio. You've been hovering generally in the high 490%s, up to 500% after the reinsurance transaction. I was just hoping to get some perspective on where you would like to run that going forward and if you have the ability to bring it down a little bit to take advantage of buyback opportunities. Randal J. Freitag - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Ryan, we've been running, as you noted, in the high 400%s for some time now, four or five years. And I think traveling in and around that area is an area we're very comfortable with. As I've noted a number of times, our expectation is as you move forward and we distribute capital that that RBC ratio would trend down over time, ultimately maybe declining to that 450% range or so. But it's something I think that is best if it happens over time. How that relates to, I think, ultimately where your question is going is what do we think about share buybacks. I'd make this comment or this note. I think about share buybacks, I think it's best to start from the beginning. And what have we said all along here is that we would expect on an annual basis to distribute 50% to 55% of our operating earnings back to shareholders. That translates, if you do the math and you back out the fact that our dividends run about $250 million a year, to roughly 125 million to 150 million a quarter. In addition, as we've talked about, sales have come down a little bit and that gives us…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question is from Randy Binner of FBR. Your line is open. Randy Binner - FBR Capital Markets & Co.: Yeah, I'll try this one with Randy. I think you mentioned in your comments that you felt that peer disclosure was not comparable to Lincoln. So in light of some trading effect on your stock I think today from a large life insurer taking a charge, I'd be interested if you'd feel comfortable expanding on that and helping us understand a little bit better how your disclosure might be more useful or different than peers. Randal J. Freitag - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Randy, thanks for the question. Part of this, you have to give as speculation. But if you asked me what do I think the number one overhang on our stock is today, it is low interest rates and investors' perception of how low interest rates impact Lincoln, primarily around the balance sheet. And that's why we have focused so intently on trying to get the message out to investors how exactly we are impacted by low interest rates on our balance sheet. I reiterated it in my discussion today and we had a very fulsome discussion at our most recent Investor Day about the impacts. I think there's a perception among investors that the impacts are larger than we've shown and so we continue to try to get that message out there. I think that message would be enhanced if other companies were to have similar disclosures so that there was a more fulsome understanding among investors across the industry. I think any time you're out there doing something on your own, some investors will have a tough time moving that way or agreeing with just one company's view of the…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question is from Mike Kovac of Goldman Sachs. Your line is open. Mike Kovac - Goldman Sachs & Co.: Great. Thanks for taking the question. Wanted to follow-up on a couple of questions regarding the upcoming assumption reviews in the third quarter. Is there anything that Lincoln is conducting in terms of either new systems or deep dives or changes in terms of what you're looking at for utilization, whether it's your own information versus industry data that we should be thinking about as we head into the back half of the year? Randal J. Freitag - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Mike, it sounds like your question is focused in on annuities, but I'll just give you some broad thoughts on the upcoming assumption review. And let me preface this by saying I'm not going to front-run the process. There are lots of people at Lincoln working very hard on this process as we speak. I think the results that come out of an unlocking are, once again, same thing I said for the last question. But they're very company-specific. I think the primary drivers of the results that come out of these unlocking processes, there are a number of them, but if you had to ask me to pick a couple, I would say this. It has to do with the riskiness of the optionality of the products you have on your balance sheet and it has to do with the point at which you start from an assumption standpoint. When you look at Lincoln, so let's talk about the facts now. When you look at Lincoln over the last decade, but I'll focus on the last four years because that's when we've made a number of assumption changes. And now I'm…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question is from Humphrey Lee of Dowling & Partners. Your line is open. Humphrey Hung Fai Lee - Dowling & Partners Securities LLC: Good morning and thank you for taking my questions. Looking at Group Protection, I hear Dennis and Randy's remarks talk about the improvement in margin will hinge on the premium growth or getting new sales of new business. But looking at your sales growth and also some of the market commentary related to pricing being a little bit more aggressive right now, can you talk about what you're seeing in the marketplace and how your current pricing of the new business relative to your assumptions? Dennis R. Glass - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Yeah, let me first respond to the competition in the marketplace. We don't see any significant change in that. I know other companies may have referred to some increased competition. But in the markets that we serve, we are not seeing a significant difference in competitiveness from the first quarter or actually from last year. And, remember, most of our sales are in the 1,000-employee and below category and also 30% to 40%, I forget the number, are in the employee voluntary space. So I start with the premise from what we can see there's not been a significant change in the competitive or pricing in the marketplace. It could be different for other companies that have different segments than we do. Randy, do you want to take the second half of that question? Randal J. Freitag - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: And, Humphrey, reiterate the second half outside of competition, just in genera are you talking about premium growth? Humphrey Hung Fai Lee - Dowling & Partners Securities LLC: Yes. Randal J. Freitag -…

Operator

Operator

Thanks. Our next question is from Eric Berg of RBC Capital Markets. Your line is open.

Eric Berg - RBC Capital Markets LLC

Analyst · RBC Capital Markets. Your line is open

Thanks. Randy, my one question relates to the mechanics, the operation of this subtest. And I'm interested in this issue because, of course, it goes to the question that all investors have, which is whether these low rates are an income statement issue or in fact a balance sheet issue. And my question regarding this subtest is this. If the subtest essentially requires you to move capital within the Life Insurance company, but doesn't require you to increase capital in the Life Insurance company – and maybe my problem is that I don't fully understand or have an accurate understanding of how the subtest works, but if it is simply an intra-Life Insurance company capital allocation issue, why should it really matter to people looking at your financials? Randal J. Freitag - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Eric, I think as with any potential allocation of capital, it has to do with the potential size of that allocation and your capacity to deal with that particular item. As I mentioned, for us, in the case of these subtests, you're talking about $350 million with the ten-year treasury at 1%. That compares to a balance sheet that has a total capacity of 8.7 billion of capital, 500% RBC ratio. Now, if the potential size of that impact was much bigger and the amount of capacity on your balance sheet to manage that impact was smaller, then you would have to think about where is that capital going to come from to maintain all of the other things I want to do with the company, the ratings, et cetera. So it's about the size of the potential impact compared to your capacity to manage that impact. What I have said, I have given you the potential size of the impacts…

Eric Berg - RBC Capital Markets LLC

Analyst · RBC Capital Markets. Your line is open

Thank you. Dennis R. Glass - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Eric, I heard a different question. You can have the kind of redundancy in our reserves in total that Randy mentioned. This is a separate test that even though you have a big cushion, in total this is a separate test that you'd have to meet anyway. If that's helpful.

Eric Berg - RBC Capital Markets LLC

Analyst · RBC Capital Markets. Your line is open

That's a helpful clarification and it definitely complements Randy's response. So thank you, Dennis. Thank you so much.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question is from Marvin Schwartz of Neuberger Berman. Your line is open.

Marvin Charles Schwartz - Neuberger Berman Holdings LLC

Analyst · Neuberger Berman. Your line is open

Gentlemen, I congratulate you not only on an excellent quarter, but on an excellent call. Okay. I can't tell you how impressed I am with all of the things that you are doing to intelligently and conservatively manage and grow your earnings. The question is, on the share buyback program that you have, I appreciate that in the second quarter, you bought back more stock from any single quarter than for many years going back to 2011. What I would suggest you consider, and you've never done this before, is doing an accelerated share repurchase program where you call your investment banker, whoever it is that's representing you on the buyback, and you have idea in your mind how much stock you might like to buy back for the third quarter. Do it right up front while the stock is at this price and get it done really fast and then you have options if you want to go back in addition to that with a continuation of your daily program. But in my opinion, buying back the stock on an accelerated basis makes a lot of sense. Thank you. Randal J. Freitag - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Marvin, I appreciate the input. We have actually used ASRs in the past. Most recently we used one a couple quarters for about half of that quarter's buy back. So it's something we definitely have used in the past and will definitely think about moving forward, but appreciate the comments. Dennis R. Glass - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: And, Marvin, I really appreciate the predicate to the question. Thank you for those compliments.

Marvin Charles Schwartz - Neuberger Berman Holdings LLC

Analyst · Neuberger Berman. Your line is open

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, that does conclude Q&A for today. We will be able to follow-up with those with any other questions later this afternoon. At this time, I'd like to turn the call back over to Chris Giovanni. Christopher A. Giovanni - Senior Vice President & Head-Investor Relations: Thank you. And we are at the top of the hour, so we want to be cognizant of another call about to take place. As always, we're around to take questions on our Investor Relations line at 800-237-2920 or via email at investorrelations@lfg.com. Thank you and have a good day.

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for your participation in today's conference. This concludes the program. You may now disconnect. Speakers, please stand by.