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El Pollo Loco Holdings, Inc. (LOCO)

Q3 2018 Earnings Call· Thu, Nov 1, 2018

$13.63

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Greeting. And welcome to the El Pollo Loco Third Quarter 2018 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. A brief question-and-answer session will follow the presentation. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to your host today, Mr. Larry Roberts, Chief Financial Officer. Please proceed, sir.

Larry Roberts

Analyst · Jefferies. Please proceed with your question

Thank you, Operator, and good afternoon. By now everyone should have access to our third quarter 2018 earnings release. If not, it can be found at www.elpolloloco.com in the Investor Relations section. Before we begin our formal remarks, I need to remind everyone that our discussion today will include forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance, and therefore, you should not put undue reliance on them. These statements are also subject to numerous risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from what we expect. We refer all of you to our recent SEC filings for more detailed discussion of the risks that could impact our future operating results and financial condition. We expect to file our 10-Q for the third quarter of 2018 tomorrow and we encourage you to review that document at your earliest convenience. During today's call, we will discuss non-GAAP measures, which we believe, can be useful in evaluating our performance. The presentation of additional information should not be considered in isolation or as a substitute for results prepared in accordance with GAAP, and reconciliations to comparable GAAP measures are available in our earnings release. I'd now like to turn the call over to President and Chief Executive Officer, Bernard Acoca.

Bernard Acoca

Analyst · Robert W. Baird. Please proceed with your question

Thanks, Larry. Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you all for joining us today. I'm very pleased to report our results for the third quarter which we believe are evident that our transformation agenda is sound and is beginning to gain traction. System-wide comparable restaurant sales increased 2.6% in the quarter, while lapping 1.7% growth in the third quarter of last year for solid two-year comparable growth of 4.3%. Our best two-year comparable sales trend in over a year. System-wide comparable restaurant transactions were flat for the quarter and in terms of cadence, we experienced an uptick in both comparable sales and transactions in September. I'm also pleased to add that this momentum has carried into the fourth quarter with both system comparable sales and transactions currently positive. A strong marketing calendar in the quarter, which included our Overstuffed Quesadillas in $5, craveable combos promotion helped to drive our sales momentum. We believe that these promotions demonstrate our ability to drive sales without heavy discounting. During the quarter, we also reintroduced chips in our handmade guacamole as an option for our guest, which our operators did an excellent job using to drive add-on sale as evidenced by our favorable mix. We are proud of these results and the strategic progress we made in the quarter, but we believe this is only the beginning of our journey to take El Pollo Loco brands to new heights. Now let's talk about the progress we've made against the three key strategies that underpin our transformation agenda. Our first strategy is creating a people first culture. As I discussed previously, culture is the foundation for all great companies and as part of this it is critical that we continue to invest in and develop our talent. All of our support centre teams, field leaders and…

Larry Roberts

Analyst · Jefferies. Please proceed with your question

Thanks, Bernard. Before we get into our third quarter results, I’d first like to touch on our store base. During the third quarter, we opened three new company-operated restaurants, two in Southern California and one in Phoenix. Additionally, franchisee opened three new restaurants during the quarter, one each in Northern California, Salt Lake City and Dallas. For the year, we expect to open eight company-operated restaurants along with nine to 10 franchised restaurants. As remodels, the company completed one digital remodel in the third quarter and franchisees completed an additional three. We now plan to complete 15 company remodels in 2018 with franchise partners expected to complete 25 to 30, which concentrates some slippage in the early 2019. Now on to our financial results, for the third quarter ended September 26, 2018, total revenue increased 10.9% to $112.2 million from $101.2 million in the third quarter of 2017. Total revenue in the quarter includes a $5.5 million of advertising revenue related franchisee advertising fund contributions required as part of new accounting guidance implementation. Excluding the advertising fund revenue, total revenue would have increased 5.5%, driven by an increase in company-operated restaurant sales. Company-operated restaurant sales rose 5.3% in the quarter to $100 million from $95 million in the third quarter of last year. This increase in company-operated restaurant sales was driven by the contribution from the 13 new restaurants open during and subsequent to the third quarter of 2017, as well as by a 2% increase in company-operated comparable restaurant sales, partially offset by seven restaurant closures during the last year. The increase in company-operated comparable restaurant sales was comprised of a 2.7% increase in average check, partially offset by a 0.7% decrease in transaction. Franchise revenue increased 8% in the third quarter to $6.7 million, compared to $6.2 million…

Operator

Operator

Thank you [Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Mary McNellis with Robert W. Baird. Please proceed with your question.

Mary McNellis

Analyst · Robert W. Baird. Please proceed with your question

Good afternoon. Thanks for taking the question. I first just want to ask for an update on Texas. I think your commentary on the last call suggested that the improvement that you had been making in that market may have stalled a bit, but then in this quarter you introduced the streamline menu. So I was just wondering if you could comment a little bit on how the performance went in those non-core markets during Q3 and maybe the impact that the menu simplification it had on either operations or guest satisfaction in those markets?

Bernard Acoca

Analyst · Robert W. Baird. Please proceed with your question

Sure. This is Bernard. I’ll take that question. I -- so with our performance in Texas, again it was really in the middle of that quarter that we implemented our menu simplification test. And what we’re seeing right now looks promising, still too early to tell you need a little bit of a longer read when you conduct a menu change of that sort, where we've eliminated 12 to 15 SKUs off of the menu. We’re encouraged by what we’re seeing. We’re not seeing any negativity associated with this test at this juncture, but in regard to the – overall sales trends in Texas. We’re continuing to see more of just the plateau effect if not a little bit of a softening in the business there. So, honestly, I'm not quite sure it's something we could measure within a quarter. We’re still looking to play the long game in Texas and what we've implemented to affect change there we feel hasn’t really fully taken hold. So, again, more of a longer-term focused and looking for any meaningful improvement within a given quarter.

Mary McNellis

Analyst · Robert W. Baird. Please proceed with your question

Understood. Thank you. And just one more question on the quarter-to-date and I was wondering if you will be willing comment directionally in whether the improvement that you saw exiting Q3 I know in Q4 was more so a reflection of the year ago comparison softening or if you’re seeing some evidence that some of these newer initiatives are moving the needle on the underlying trend?

Bernard Acoca

Analyst · Robert W. Baird. Please proceed with your question

Well, I mean, you can see in the numbers, and I think, we talk about the fact that our comps last year in the back half relative to the first half had softened. But I think what you are seeing in our business we’re encouraged by certainly based on the positive transaction trends that I mentioned in my prepared remarks relative to the rest of the industry, but that seems to be somewhat more elusive for many brands and so we are encouraged by the increasing momentum we are seeing in our business.

Mary McNellis

Analyst · Robert W. Baird. Please proceed with your question

Great. Thanks for taking the question.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Matthew DiFrisco with Guggenheim. Please proceed with your question.

Matt Grosjean

Analyst · Guggenheim. Please proceed with your question

Hey. This is actually Matt Grosjean for Matt. Thanks for the questions. I just want to start by first just discussing the gap between the company stores and franchise stores. Anything change there, I see the Delta was about 100 basis points this quarter and it's been roughly that pace going back the last few quarters, is that mainly pricing or how should we think about that Delta going forward?

Bernard Acoca

Analyst · Guggenheim. Please proceed with your question

Yeah. Matt, actually, I would say, the Delta is actually tightened a little bit, I mean, yeah, 100 basis points, but they are constantly growing higher than that in the past. And what we are really seeing right now is a little bit of reverse in where we been is the fact we’re actually running higher check on company restaurants I think part of that because of the way we really been driving the quarterly chip promotion in our restaurant and where the franchisees right now are outperforming is on transaction. And so, in fact, one other thing we are doing in the fourth quarter is, we are running a test in a, call a test is actually across a large number of restaurants in which we are deploying extra labor at dinner in the drive through to see if that is one of the driver was causing that transaction gap and so we just started that test as one of the investments w are making in the fourth quarter, looking to read that. But so right now what we seen is shift where the gap is really around transactions and we do have a test in place to see further close that gap on transactions in the fourth quarter with this incremental labor.

Matt Grosjean

Analyst · Guggenheim. Please proceed with your question

And that test would only be at the company locations?

Bernard Acoca

Analyst · Guggenheim. Please proceed with your question

That test is only company located right now, yeah.

Matt Grosjean

Analyst · Guggenheim. Please proceed with your question

Okay. I had noted that you could be rolling out a new store design in late September in Dallas, any key findings or learnings that we should take since that new store launch?

Bernard Acoca

Analyst · Guggenheim. Please proceed with your question

Well, I think, you’re referring to Vision restaurants, which is all the restaurants in Dallas are the Vision design. And in fact, what we’re doing right now, I can’t remember, but I talked about on the previous call a little bit is, yeah, we’re relooking at that design and some of the element of design. I mean they are beautiful looking buildings. They are fantastic. They work extremely well in California when we build them, because California they know El Pollo Loco. The thing were questioning is putting them in a new market as great as they look to people where they understand what El Pollo Loco stands for as a brand by looking at those assets and do we need to make some tweaks to them or changing to them on the outside and the inside to better convey what El Pollo stands for and what you should expect when you go into El Pollo Loco restaurant. But just begin, I mean, all of our Dallas restaurants are that Vision design.

Matt Grosjean

Analyst · Guggenheim. Please proceed with your question

Understood. And the last question, you’re opening stores and having impairments and store closures. I mean what's the, how should we think about the net benefit of opening a store versus maybe closing or offsetting store or underperforming store?

Bernard Acoca

Analyst · Guggenheim. Please proceed with your question

Well, I guess, I look at as we, I mean, I’ll say, in the past few calls, I think, we highlight the fact that, our development is going to be increasingly focused on core markets. Core being Southern California, Los Vegas and we’ll also be building restaurants up in Sacramento. And we're focus on those, because we know when we build restaurants in those markets we get very good returns on those. So those are going to be certainly accretive to EBITDA, earnings per share, and of course, as we look around and assess our assets then if we determine that we want it, we should close more restaurants, those will also be added, because we don't because we know that they were negative EBITDA and negative EPS. So I hope that answers your question. Again, so everything we're going to be building next year, we’re very confident in the performance given that the non-core markets and any closure I think we did would definitely be accretive to earnings and EBITDA.

Matt Grosjean

Analyst · Guggenheim. Please proceed with your question

Understood. Thanks for the time.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Andy Barish with Jefferies. Please proceed with your question.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst · Jefferies. Please proceed with your question

Hi. Thanks. This is Alex on for Andy. I just wanted to follow-up on Mary’s other question about Texas and get a sense what the drag was on comps and restaurant on margins this quarter. I think, Larry, last quarter you had shared that it was about 50 basis points to the comp, is that coming down, where is that trending right now?

Larry Roberts

Analyst · Jefferies. Please proceed with your question

Yeah. So the comp impact in the third quarter was about 30 basis points, so a little better versus Q2.

Unidentified Speaker

Analyst · Jefferies. Please proceed with your question

And is the impact on restaurant level margin still at 150 basis points or so or is that coming about…

Larry Roberts

Analyst · Jefferies. Please proceed with your question

That also improved, yeah, actually that also improved a little bit in Q3. It was about 130 basis points, 135 basis points versus 150 basis points, 160 basis points, we're spinning at that.

Unidentified Speaker

Analyst · Jefferies. Please proceed with your question

Got it. And then just going back to the comments on the fourth quarter and momentum to-date, I think, in your commentary on cost of goods you mentioned that there were some higher costs promotions coming in the fourth quarter and are those going to be discounting or is that a reflection of the efforts to bring down the higher company check and close the traffic gap versus franchisees?

Bernard Acoca

Analyst · Jefferies. Please proceed with your question

No. What it really reflects is the actual limit time offer that we have going in our last module, which will run from roughly Thanksgiving to the end of the year. It's not discounting, it's just a fairly high food cost item. I don't want to disclose what it is. But we feel like it's going to be a very strong promotion for us but it does have a higher food costs associated with it.

Unidentified Speaker

Analyst · Jefferies. Please proceed with your question

Got it. And then just, I guess, one last question staying on same-store sales, where is sort of the delivery mix trending right now? I guess are you open to sharing sort of what percentage of that mix is coming through the El Pollo Loco app versus DoorDash's, I know that was a later add to their marketplace, I mean, recently.

Bernard Acoca

Analyst · Jefferies. Please proceed with your question

Yeah. So we've been steadily growing digital sales. Digital by -- by digital I mean mobile, e-commerce and delivery. So right now it represents 2.6% of our sales in totality. I think what you're really going to see is put a lot more momentum behind delivery is in 2019. Our focus historically as a company, when I say historically, I mean, maybe the past couple years, few years, has really been around lunch. Where we're going to really pivot in 2019 is put far more effort behind dinner. I think, Larry talked about the investment we're making in the quarter, the fourth quarter certainly, around additional labor at the drive through particularly at dinner, so that we improve our speed of service times during that day part. But what -- that will also be coupled by is a real focus on family meals, advertising, targeting dinner, as well as in 2019 a greater effort and messaging behind delivery. So I think we've been happy with the steady progress we've been making against delivery in 2018, but we're going to be more ambitious about the growth we're expecting to see from delivery in 2019.

Unidentified Speaker

Analyst · Jefferies. Please proceed with your question

Yeah. Thanks, Bernard. And I guess, well, most of that come in the form of the rewards app and pushing that messaging through the mobile app of reward.

Bernard Acoca

Analyst · Jefferies. Please proceed with your question

We think that's the catalyst, the primary catalyst for delivery growth for us, yes. And so you'll see again couple, the unlock for delivery for us is a continued growing of our membership base with local rewards, our loyalty program and we're very pleased with our membership acquisition rates there, growing membership to the tune of, let's call, it 10,000 to 12,000 members a week. And so as we continue to grow that program we see that as being a major catalyst to growing delivery over the long-term.

Unidentified Speaker

Analyst · Jefferies. Please proceed with your question

Right. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our next question comes from Jake Bartlett with SunTrust Robinson. Please proceed with your question.

Kevin Robinson

Analyst · SunTrust Robinson. Please proceed with your question

Thanks for taking the question. This is Kevin Robinson on for Jake. And my question focuses on primarily like the family meal mix and also the loyalty. If you could give me a sense of what was like the quarter-over-quarter change in terms of the discounting -- the loyalty discounting? Just to get a sense of how that has changed and also what was the family meal mix percent of sales this quarter?

Bernard Acoca

Analyst · SunTrust Robinson. Please proceed with your question

So, the discounting associated with the loyalty program, if anything has slowly started to ramp downward, we're holding it at about 1%. We've done a few things that have actually helped kind of hop or I should say keep the discounting steady if anything there, which is reducing the discounting associated with acquiring a new member, which doesn't seem to have hurt us too significantly quite honestly. In regards to the mix around family dinner, family meals, that has historically been anywhere between 28% to 30% of our business, and what we are trying to do certainly in 2019 is meaningfully grow that as we start to pivot and put more of our attention and focus around dinner as I mentioned just a moment ago.

Kevin Robinson

Analyst · SunTrust Robinson. Please proceed with your question

Thanks for taking my question. You answered the ones I had.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. There are no further questions in queue at this time. I would like to turn the call back over to Mr. Bernard Acoca for closing comments.

Bernard Acoca

Analyst · Robert W. Baird. Please proceed with your question

Well, I just want to thank everyone for attending this evening's call and we look forward to touching base with all of you in our next quarter. Thank you for attending today.

Operator

Operator

This concludes today's teleconference. You may disconnect your lines this time and thank you for your participation.