Earnings Labs

Grand Canyon Education, Inc. (LOPE)

Q3 2014 Earnings Call· Wed, Oct 29, 2014

$167.62

-0.97%

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Grand Canyon Education's Third Quarter Earnings Call. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this call will be recorded. I would now like to introduce your host for today's conference, Mr. Brian Roberts, General Counsel. Please go ahead.

Brian M. Roberts

Analyst

Thank you, operator. Good afternoon, and thank you for joining us to discuss today on this conference call to discuss Grand Canyon's 2014 Third Quarter Results. Speaking on today's call is our President and CEO, Brian Mueller; and our CFO, Dan Bachus. This call is scheduled to last 1 hour. During the Q&A period, we will try to answer all of your questions, and we apologize in advance if there are questions that we are unable to address due to time constraints. We'd like to remind you that many of our comments today will contain forward-looking statements with respect to GCU's future performance that involve risks and uncertainties. Various factors could cause GCU's actual results to be materially different from any future results expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements. These factors are discussed in GCU's SEC filings, including our annual report on Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2013, our quarterly reports on Form 10-Q and our current reports on Form 8-K. We recommend that all investors thoroughly review these reports before taking a financial position in GCU, and we do not undertake any obligation to update anyone with regard to the forward-looking statements made during this conference call. And with that, I will turn the call over to Brian.

Brian E. Mueller

Analyst · Piper Jaffray

Good afternoon, and thank you for joining Grand Canyon University's Third Quarter Fiscal Year 2014 Conference Call. I want to begin by reviewing the results of operations for the quarter. In third quarter of 2014, enrollments grew by 13.7% and net revenues grew by 14.9%. New enrollments grew in the mid-single digits and operating margins are at 26.3% for Q3 2014. Enrollment on our traditional ground campus grew by 31% to just another 11,000 students. New students grew to approximately 5,500. The average income in GPA of new students is approximately 3.5, and 50% of the students are studying in natural sciences. We successfully opened Computer Science and Information Technology degrees this fall, bringing our total program count to over 160 spread across our now 8 colleges. We are on track to open mechanical, electrical and biomedical engineering degrees in the fall of 2015. Approximately 60% of our traditional students live on campus in very new and modern residence halls. Campus life is becoming incredibly vibrant, and a strong GCU year committee is evolving. We have already had 2 major theater productions, 4 sold-out concerts, numerous smaller concerts put on by students to our growing music programs, fall athletic events, chapels averaging 5,000 students and our much-anticipated basketball season is less than 2 weeks away. Next year's ground enrollment is expected to be 14,500, including 7,500 new students, with approximately 70% living on campus. This will be our largest building year with 4 new 6-door residence halls, the first 80,000 square feet of 160,000-square-foot engineering building, a 50,000-square-foot general-use classroom building, a new parking garage and a new stadium for soccer, lacrosse and rugby. The online campus has grown 11.4% to 55,218 students. The student mix continues to move in a strong direction. Our stronger students by virtue of high…

Daniel E. Bachus

Analyst · Deutsche Bank

Thanks, Brian. Revenue and income from operations exceeded our expectations in the third quarter, primarily due to higher enrollments and higher revenue per student than expected. Revenue per student was up year-over-year due to our residential traditional campus enrollment growing at a rate higher than our working result enrollment. When factoring in room, board and fees, the revenue per student is higher for these students than for our working adult students. Scholarships, as a percentage of revenue, increased from 14.6% in Q3 2013 to 15.7% in Q3 2014, due primarily to the growth in our ground traditional student enrollment between years. Online scholarships, as a percentage of related revenue, continues to be up slightly year-over-year due to an increase in students from organizational partners. Bad debt expenses, as a percentage of revenue, decreased to 2.2% in Q3 2014 as compared to 3.4% in Q3 2013. This decrease is primarily the result of continued improvements in processes and the quality of our student body. In addition, during the third quarter of 2014, we changed the way we recognize revenue for students that withdraw from the University, such as that revenue is recognized when payment is received. Given the low withdrawal rate of our students and our historical reserve methodology, this change has an immaterial net impact on our financial statements, but slightly reduces revenue and bad debt expense. Our effective tax rate for the third quarter of 2014 was 36.1% as compared to 41.4% in the third quarter of '13. The decrease in the effective tax rate between years is due to us making contributions in lieu of state income taxes, the school tuition organizations during the third quarter of 2014, whereas these payments have historically been made in the fourth quarter. We did not repurchase any shares of our common…

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Peter Appert from Piper Jaffray.

Peter P. Appert - Piper Jaffray Companies, Research Division

Analyst · Piper Jaffray

So, Brian, are you able to provide any additional information in terms of the process by which Grand Canyon might convert? I'm thinking about issues around how you would fund debt? Debt levels, you'd be able to take on regulatory approvals, time frame anything along those lines.

Brian E. Mueller

Analyst · Piper Jaffray

No, Peter, we don't want to share any additional information at this particular point in time. We've been working on this for about 6 months, and we believe it's going to be a 6- to 12-month process. And as we move through that process, we might reveal some additional information, but at this point, we don't want to release any additional information.

Peter P. Appert - Piper Jaffray Companies, Research Division

Analyst · Piper Jaffray

How about -- any commentary in terms of just what you're seeing in terms of start trends in the online business. I guess, it's a little bit slower as anticipated this quarter versus last couple of quarters. How does it look going into the fourth quarter and your expectation into next year?

Brian E. Mueller

Analyst · Piper Jaffray

Yes, the things are in line with our expectations. There are 2 things happening. One, our ground campus is growing at a very high rate, which is a very positive thing because of the additional revenue per student that we get and because of the 4-year revenue streams. As it becomes a bigger percentage of our overall student body, our 8% to 10% enrollment growth numbers are easier to achieve with less online students. So that's one thing that's happening. The second thing that is happening is that the online starts continued to be an upward trend in terms of being the strong students in the upper categories, and so we need fewer of them to hit the total enrollment goal. And so the online starts are exactly where we want them to be right now in order to achieve 8% to 10% overall enrollment growth thing that we're trying to accomplish.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Jeff Meuler with Baird. Jeffrey P. Meuler - Robert W. Baird & Co. Incorporated, Research Division: Brian, the first thing you listed under the 4 reasons was the best option for investors. Can you just help us, maybe, understand a little bit better how you came to that conclusion? I fully understand it could be good for the education community and the students, but how you came to conclusion that it's the best option for investors? And it sounds like you've been exploring it for 6 months or so. 6 months ago, your stock wasn't all that far move from an all-time high. So just if you can help us understand from an investor standpoint what the benefit is?

Brian E. Mueller

Analyst · an investor standpoint what the benefit is

Well, obviously, if we are successful in this, the investors would be bought out at a premium, in a fairly significant premium. And so given some of the uncertainties in the landscape of this whole industry going forward, we thought that most investors would view this as a positive. Jeffrey P. Meuler - Robert W. Baird & Co. Incorporated, Research Division: Okay. And can you -- without talking about [indiscernible] in the process, can you talk about -- just I'm not as familiar with what debt burdens are common or allowed at not-for-profit universities, can you just give us some perspective on that?

Brian E. Mueller

Analyst · an investor standpoint what the benefit is

Yes, very important question. We have had a meeting with the Higher Learning Commission. And then we had a very, very important meeting with the Department of Education. And the calculations that you're referring to are significant. The Department of Education expressed huge support for this move, and said that they would work with us as we go through the process. And so, this will be an important part of the process. But the initial information that we've gotten from the Department of Ed is there's all of a face-to-face meeting a while back is very positive. They are highly supportive of this move and want to help us make it. So we have confidence that, that part of it will go well. Jeffrey P. Meuler - Robert W. Baird & Co. Incorporated, Research Division: Okay. And then just, I guess, finally, anything else you can say about how it would change the vision for what the University would ultimately become? It sounds like more research, but I don't know if there's differences in terms of size or any other ways that would change the ultimate structure of the University?

Brian E. Mueller

Analyst · an investor standpoint what the benefit is

Yes, it wouldn't. We are -- we would stick with the plan that we have right now. We want to grow the traditional ground campus out to 25,000 students, we'll make the CapEx investment necessary to do that, and we are on track to make that number in 4 to 5 years. We would still want to grow the online campus 5, 6 percentage points per year, and keep moving the student body in very -- in the -- towards a graduate student body. The rest of what we do in the community -- the rest of what we do in terms of developing academic programs, placing a real strong focus in the STEM area so that we can help Arizona rebuild its -- build its workforce, though none of those things will change at all. So the strategy will remain about the same.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Adrienne Colby with Deutsche Bank.

Adrienne Colby - Deutsche Bank AG, Research Division

Analyst · Deutsche Bank

I was wondering in terms of the Pac-12 Conference. If there's an update on the initial decision to allow for -- to participate, but not to vote? Is this is something that's contributing anyway in your decision to explore options of not being a for-profit? And also just wondering, again, if ASU is still boycotting Grand Canyon and if the friction with ASU has created any issues in attracting athletes [ph] or other students to your ground campus?

Brian E. Mueller

Analyst · Deutsche Bank

It contributes a little bit, too. There are 2 separate issues there. The first one is Arizona State and its President leading a boycott against Grand Canyon, and he did lead the boycott. And so that has been effective to some extent. We don't have many contests any longer scheduled with Pac-12 institutions. We don't have any with ASU. In fact, it's reached a little bit of the point of ridiculousness. We were there in a swimming meet with them last weekend. We could only count scores against Seattle or their scores against Seattle, but we couldn't count the scores against each other. So it was -- that was an interesting thing. So, yes. Now, I want to make sure I point out that we don't harbor any resentment against Arizona State University. Our coaching staffs get along, our faculties get along, our student bodies along. They have good friends in each other student bodies. This is just one person. This is their President, who has insisted on this boycott. It has nothing to do with the 2 universities. And we don't ever speak negatively about Arizona State University. My 2 older sons graduated from there. And so that would not be helpful to Arizona. But, yes, the NCAA -- the other issues that NCAA did vote to allow us to participate at the Division I level, but not to be a board member or not to be -- to serve on committees. And so that -- it's not a major setback, but it's a little bit of a setback. So it impacted a little. University of Arizona had a number of games scheduled against us that were canceled, and so they seem like they've joined in a little bit with that. And the unfortunate thing there is that it is a little bit of a disadvantage to our student athletes. Our student athletes want to have the same opportunities as the other student athletes. The fact that we have a different financial model shouldn't impact their abilities to compete just like every other student athlete in Division I school. So, yes, those things did have a little bit of a role in us wanting to make this transition. Do we think, over time, it might change? Yes, but for the long-term legacy of the institution, for the good of our alumni and our students, we think that this move would be something that would be helpful.

Adrienne Colby - Deutsche Bank AG, Research Division

Analyst · Deutsche Bank

Great. And if I can just ask a follow-up question. You had talked about having about a 25% share from incoming students in your fall start from California. Just wondering if that target has actually panned out? And then also wondering how many of your ground students are from Arizona, and maybe how many of your online students are from Arizona?

Brian E. Mueller

Analyst · Deutsche Bank

Of that -- the 25% number for new students from California is accurate. And we're off to a big start in terms of applications from there forward follow-up next year, a really big start. Our ground student population from Arizona is about 55 -- we're looking right now, it's close to 60%, between 55% and 60%.

Adrienne Colby - Deutsche Bank AG, Research Division

Analyst · Deutsche Bank

And your online student population?

Brian E. Mueller

Analyst · Deutsche Bank

Yes, online student body population from Arizona is...

Daniel E. Bachus

Analyst · Deutsche Bank

20%.

Brian E. Mueller

Analyst · Deutsche Bank

20%.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Jason Anderson with Stifel. Jason P. Anderson - Stifel, Nicolaus & Company, Incorporated, Research Division: Regarding the potential change here, I know there is always so much you can say, but has the -- I'm guessing you've been garnering some interests previously as that is -- has that accelerated into the last 6 months? Or is there any, I guess, I'm just trying to gauge here the buy side of this equation potentially.

Brian E. Mueller

Analyst · Stifel

I would say that the interest has gained some momentum in the last 6 months, which is why we've decided that we need to release this information at this point. It's still obviously not a done deal at all. There's a lot of work that has to be done. But I would say, yes, it's correct to say that it's gained its momentum. Jason P. Anderson - Stifel, Nicolaus & Company, Incorporated, Research Division: And then did you guys say what online starts were growth-wise?

Brian E. Mueller

Analyst · Stifel

No, they're right in line with our expectations. We had one fewer start dates -- start date in this quarter than we had in the previous quarter. So when you factor that in, it's right in line with what we've been doing. Jason P. Anderson - Stifel, Nicolaus & Company, Incorporated, Research Division: Okay. So similar to prior quarter trend. And then one last one. The -- have you guys begun marketing the Colangelo School of Business, the new naming, and has that marketing begun? Have you seen any traction yet? I mean, I guess it might be a longer-term build, but judging by the name, you might think there'll be some immediate traction?

Brian E. Mueller

Analyst · Stifel

We're putting together a really significant plan with regards to marketing that name in our business program, especially in Arizona. So we really haven't seen a big uptick in that at this point, but we plan to market that name and that brand extensively in January and February of this upcoming year.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Jeff Volshteyn from JPMorgan. Jeffrey Y. Volshteyn - JP Morgan Chase & Co, Research Division: I wanted to find out whether you had initial conversations with the states regulatory agency and their creditors? And are there any obstacles or additional approvals that you will need from them before -- in conjunction with the U.S. Department of Education?

Brian E. Mueller

Analyst · the U.S. Department of Education

We will need -- yes, we will need approvals from both the state agency and the Higher Learning Commission. We started the conversation with the Higher Learning Commission and now we'll start the conversation with the state agencies. Jeffrey Y. Volshteyn - JP Morgan Chase & Co, Research Division: Okay, great. Switching over to more of fundamental questions. Can you give us a sense of how you think about 2015, kind of your -- are there any changes in aspirations for the second campus growth there? And perhaps any target -- any updates on target for the next start -- fall start of '15?

Brian E. Mueller

Analyst · the U.S. Department of Education

Targets have all stayed about where there've been. So there's really no change fundamentally in the strategy around ground enrollments, online enrollments, revenues per student, no real changes in those things at all. The -- whether we do something in the East Valley campus next year or not is still not determined. The thing that caused us not to do it this year was that the momentum on this campus was just so strong. And the most interesting part of it is the East Valley campus was going to be built primarily for commuters. And our -- unlike at most universities, a couple of years ago, about 50% or so of our students wanted to live on campus. As we trend towards next year, we're going to be around 14,000, 14,500 students with 70% wanting to live on campus. Most universities have the problem of juniors and seniors wanting to move off. The new dorms, the residence halls that we are building are absolutely tremendous and students want to stay, which really helps build community at the University. It also really helps on a revenue per student basis because it goes from $7,800 to $15,000, and resident halls are even though it's a very good deal for students, they're very profitable. So that's why we continue to put that off. Jeffrey Y. Volshteyn - JP Morgan Chase & Co, Research Division: It makes sense. Last question for me. In the past, you shared with us the scholarships as a percentage of revenue. Can you update for the last quarter?

Daniel E. Bachus

Analyst · the U.S. Department of Education

Yes. I mentioned it, but I'll give it to you again. Scholarships, 15.7% in this last quarter compared to 14.6% in the Q3 2013.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Trace Urdan with Wells Fargo Securities.

Trace A. Urdan - Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, Research Division

Analyst · Wells Fargo Securities

I actually had talked to some lawyers about this transaction, which has been taking place among smaller institutions primarily to avoid annihilation from regulations, and one of the obstacles that I understand is true is not really come from the education regulatory side, but rather from the IRS. They look very carefully at transactions like this in order to ensure that there is not a windfall accruing to the seller in these circumstances. So in that context, I'm wondering if the people that are advising you are comfortable that you really can pay a premium that shareholders, at least shareholders, would find acceptable in this circumstance?

Brian E. Mueller

Analyst · Wells Fargo Securities

Yes, it's something -- again, we've just started our work, but it's been an issue that's been identified. I think, for us, the biggest issue, frankly, would be the built-in gain that's been accrued given the difference between the value of the University and the net book value of our assets. And so, I think the IRS would actually be very pleased with the transaction because the tax bill would be pretty significant. And we're working on how that would play out. But it is something that, that's been identified and we're working through.

Daniel E. Bachus

Analyst · Wells Fargo Securities

If I can just cover quickly on the first part of that. When we met with the Department of Ed, we told them what we are going meet about, so they did their research and one of the first things they said was, what some people might say is that you're doing is to avoid any potential regulatory things, and they said we have done the research and obviously you are in the very strong place with regards to that. So we're not -- we're not doing that for the purpose. So just want to make sure I got that out there.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Jeff Silber with BMO.

Henry Chien

Analyst · BMO

It's Henry Chien calling in for Jeff. Sorry to attack another along the conversion. Would you -- I know you can't share too much, but would you be able to -- I know you said that you'd probably take out shareholders at premium. Would you be able to walk us through the process, maybe the timeline of how that would go about?

Brian E. Mueller

Analyst · BMO

Again, it's just too early to go through that at this point. As we get additional information, we'll share publicly, but it's just too early in the process to get more detailed information.

Henry Chien

Analyst · BMO

Got it. And, Brian, authorization, are there any major reasons that would be due to -- to you to remain as the for-profit public company?

Brian E. Mueller

Analyst · BMO

Well, it has to make sense for the university and for the shareholder. So coming to evaluation that makes sense to our shareholders, but also doesn't put an extreme debt burden on the University. And so that -- I think that's obviously the biggest piece to ensuring that this transaction happened is it has to be -- make sense for both parties.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Sara Gubins from Merrill Lynch.

David Chu - BofA Merrill Lynch, Research Division

Analyst · Merrill Lynch

This is David Chu for Sara. So in regards to this premium for investors, who determines this value?

Brian E. Mueller

Analyst · Merrill Lynch

Again, I think, David, that'll be something that will play itself out over the next few months, et cetera. There is, obviously, got to be 2 separate parties to the transaction, and then, I think, typically, the bankers get a fairness opinion to make sure that it's appropriate.

Daniel E. Bachus

Analyst · Merrill Lynch

And I did use the word premium. And what I meant by that is, obviously it has to make sense for both of us. So whatever that is eventually determined, we -- it'll have to make sense for both of us, not for us to go forward.

David Chu - BofA Merrill Lynch, Research Division

Analyst · Merrill Lynch

And to follow-up on Trace's question, so besides, say, add to creditors, states, IRS like -- and some other entities stand in the way of the potential conversion?

Daniel E. Bachus

Analyst · Merrill Lynch

I don't -- I think, you probably hit on all the major pieces. It's the state, it's our crediting body, it's the Department of Ed, and it's the IRS. I think those are the major outside parties that will be reviewing the transaction.

David Chu - BofA Merrill Lynch, Research Division

Analyst · Merrill Lynch

Okay. And just lastly, I guess the other, I guess, topic in the 8-K, what prompted the change in voting standards for the election of the directors?

Daniel E. Bachus

Analyst · Merrill Lynch

We got a unsolicited request from one of our investors that we make this change. And so our board, as we do with any similar situations, reviewed the request and determined as appropriate, and thus made the change.

Operator

Operator

Our last question comes from Philip Stiller with Citi.

Philip Stiller - Citigroup Inc, Research Division

Analyst · Citi

Just following up on the potential conversion. I guess, would the potential transaction here be 100% debt funded or would there be equity as part of the buyout? And if so, where would that money come from?

Brian E. Mueller

Analyst · Citi

Again, Phil, it's just too early to get into those type of details. So I just -- we can't answer that at this point. There'll be a process that plays out, and we will look at all options, and once we have more definite information, we'll share.

Philip Stiller - Citigroup Inc, Research Division

Analyst · Citi

Okay. I guess, the margin performance in the quarter was pretty strong despite the tax contribution. The fourth quarter revenue guidance was raised, but the margin guidance was not. So I'm just trying to figure out what put through in the third quarter that more necessarily benefit the fourth quarter margin?

Brian E. Mueller

Analyst · Citi

Well, we had -- already had a pretty significant bump in our margin expectations for the fourth quarter versus the third quarter. As we talked about in the second quarter, and it continued in the third quarter, our summer revenue for our ground traditional students was higher than we expected, and thus that helped. Obviously, that doesn't flow through into the fourth quarter. So we still feel good about the margins for the fourth quarter. They're much more -- much higher than, I think, 2 years ago, we would have thought. But we don't feel that they're going to be higher than what we've guided to. We have reached the end of our third quarter conference call. We appreciate your time and interest in Grand Canyon Education. If you still have questions, please contact either myself, Dan Bachus or Bob Romantic. Thank you very much.

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for participating in today's conference. This does conclude today's program. You may all disconnect. Everyone, have a great day.