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Dorian LPG Ltd. (LPG)

Q1 2024 Earnings Call· Wed, Aug 2, 2023

$38.54

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Greetings. And welcome to Dorian LPG First Quarter 2024 Earnings. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. A brief question-and-answer session will follow the formal presentation. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. Additionally, a live audio webcast of today's conference call is available on Dorian LPG's Web site, which is www.dorianlpg.com. I would now like to turn the conference over to Ted Young, Chief Financial Officer. Thank you, and over to you sir.

Ted Young

Management

Thank you, Ryan. Good morning, everyone. And thank you all for joining us for our first fiscal quarter 2024 results conference call. With me today are John Hadjipateras, Chairman, President, and CEO of Dorian LPG Limited; John Lycouris, Chief Executive Officer of Dorian LPG USA; and Taro Rasmussen, Vice President of Chartering. As a reminder, this conference call, webcast and replay of this call will be available through August 9, 2023. Many of our remarks today contain forward-looking statements based on current expectations. These statements may often be identified with words such as expect, anticipate, believe or similar indications of future expectations. Although we believe that such forward-looking statements are reasonable, we can not assure you that any forward-looking statements will prove to be correct. These forward-looking statements are subject to known and unknown risks and uncertainties and other factors as well as general economic conditions. Should one or more of these risks or uncertainties materialize or should underlying assumptions or estimates prove to be incorrect, actual results may vary materially from those we express today. Additionally, let me refer you to our unaudited results for the period ended June 30, 2023 that were filed this morning on Form 10-Q. Also please refer to the investor highlight slides posted this morning on our Web site to accompany today's discussion. Finally, please refer to our previous filings on forms 10-K where you will find risk factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those forward-looking statements. With that, I'll turn over the call to John Hadjipateras.

John Hadjipateras

Management

Thank you, Ted. Good morning from pleasantly sunny Stamford, Connecticut. Thank you for joining, John, Ted, Taro, who is, calling in on behalf of Tim, who's on vacation and me to discuss our first quarter financial 2024 results. The quarter's results reflect a strong freight environment with Dorian earning a time charter equivalent exceeding 50,000 per day. We generated $46.5 million of free cash flow, which more than funded our $40 million dividend last quarter. Including the dollar dividend declared on July 27th, we will have returned nearly $610 million to our shareholders since our IPO. To strike the right balance in our capital allocation approach, our Board considers current and expected freight market conditions, the company's capital and operating needs, our net debt to total capitalization, which is roughly 32% at present as well as potential strategic opportunities. Regarding fleet renewal, 25 ships with a useful life of approximately 25 years implies replacing one ship per year. We capitalized on a good set of market dynamics to build one ship and to charter in three more on initial seven year terms with options. These fleet renewal deals were economically attractive. As the chartered in ships give us market exposure, optionality on length and the potential upside of the purchase options while not requiring a large upfront investment. We price optionality in our investment decisions as we continue to evaluate fleet renewal and other opportunities. We see increasing demand for LPG, both for residential and for commercial use in the petrochemical markets, supported by the relative cheapness of LPG versus naptha and LPG's lighter environmental footprint. With additional delays expected due to the well publicized drought conditions in the Panama canal, we hope that our choice to charter in three ships whose beam enable them to transit both the Panama and the neo-Panama launch will be rewarded. It is appropriate to mention the importance to our business of our relationships with our charterers to whom we are committed to provide safe, reliable and clean transportation. And with our people at sea and onshore to whom we commit to provide a safe, inclusive and equitable workspace, these priorities we believe equips us to deliver the best returns for our investors. At a productive collaboration between our charters and seagoing and shore staff help us to achieve efficiencies and reduce fuel consumption and emissions as we evaluate and deploy new energy saving devices. I should also mention that in response to the crisis which continues to affect a number of our Ukrainian and Russian seafarers and their families, we introduced flexible arrangements for joining and repatriation, added free Internet on board, supplemented medical insurance and are providing a monthly allowance for displaced families. The current freight market level supports an optimistic financial outlook for the second quarter ending September 30th. Our cautious approach to capital allocation will continue to guide our decisions as I hand over to Ted.

Ted Young

Management

Thanks, John. My comments today will focus on the recent capital allocation events, our financial position and liquidity and of course, our unaudited first quarter results. At June 30, 2023, we reported $155.5 million of free cash, which was net of the $40.5 million in dividends paid in the quarter. As of yesterday, we had $174.4 million in free cash, reflecting the current favorable market environment and free cash flow generation. Also, as previously disclosed, we will pay another $1 per share dividend as an irregular dividend or roughly $40 million in total of dividends on or about September 6th to shareholders of record as of August 10th. We fixed the interest rates on the Captain Markos dual fuel and Crest Japanese financings during the quarter and fixed the Cougar Japanese financing in late July with an effective start date in August following its next principal payment. With those fixings in place, our weighted average cost of debt is about 4.7%, which is actually below the current one and three month SOFR rates, which are around 5.3%. Our next refinancing event is at the end of December 2026, which is the [Ballcap] facility. We amortized about $13.2 million in principal per quarter or slightly less than $53 million annually, which we consider quite manageable and largely inline with our book depreciation. With a debt balance at quarter end of $650.3 million, our debt to total book capitalization stood at 42% and our net debt to total book capitalization at 32%. With well structured and attractively priced debt capital and undrawn revolver and one debt free vessel coupled with our strong cash balance, we have a comfortable measure of financial flexibility. We continue to expect our cash cost per day for the coming year to be approximately $23,000 per day excluding…

Taro Rasmussen

Management

Thank you, Ted. Good day, everyone, and thank you for dialing in. First quarter fiscal year 2024 saw increased global seaborne trade of LPG. The April-June 2023 period was the strongest quarter on record in terms of seaborne LPG trade. This is seen on Slide 5 of our accompanying slide deck. Regarding seaborne LPG trade, North American exports were buoyed by weak domestic consumption during the tail end of the mildest winter since 2010 and a warmer than normal summer minimizing the need for early crop drying. This was amidst continued record setting production levels. The quarter ending June 2023 was the quarter with the highest export volumes on record from North America. Middle East export volumes for the quarter also set a record for highest exports. Although, exports into India grew modestly. Southeast Asia and China absorbed much of the Middle East exports. The healthy import demand into China was partly driven by increased demand for propane as a feedstock for the petchem industry. This was a factor seen in the prior quarter but also the quarter ending June 2023. For Far East steam crackers, propane was at about an average 15% discounts than naphtha in January through March but an average 30% discount April through June for making one ton of ethylene. This testifies to the attractiveness of propane over the quarter. Regarding the development of the freight market over the quarter. Historically, the April-June period for the VLGC freight market is characterized by an upward correction in the front and softening as summer approaches. In 2023, however, the start of summer surprised positively with worries of a summer lull quickly eroding. This was affirmed as the East of Suez market saw the BLPG1, the benchmark Arabian Gulf Chiba rate, correct significantly upwards from the beginning of the…

John Lycouris

Management

Thank you, Taro. We report on the daily scrubber savings realized last quarter by our scrubber fitted vessels of about $2,740 per calendar day net of all operating expenses. During the second quarter of 2023, price differentials between the benchmark light sweet WTI and the medium and heavy sour crudes narrowed as refining margins declined on supply and demand concerns. The average fuel cost differential in the last quarter between high sulfur fuel oil and very low sulfur fuel oil, the high five spread that’s called was $169.3 per metric ton less than the VLSFO fuel. In the next quarter, we expect a further narrowing of that spread as the middle distillates market supply has grown while the high sulfur residual fuel supply has tightened. With most of the VLGC spot voyages originating from Houston, our LPG dual fuel engine vessels have benefited from the good reliability and the attractive pricing differential of LPGS fuel versus the very low sulfur fuel oil. It currently stands at about $210 per metric ton less than the VLSFO after taking into consideration the energy density differential of the two fuels. On the technical front, during the recent drydocking of one of our vessels, we completed the retrofit of a scrubber unit, thus, increasing our fleet of scrubber vessels to 13. Installations of energy saving devices on our vessels are continuing as we also continue in reviewing new devices like for example, wind assisted propulsion or air lubrication. We are progressing with the implementation of engine power limitation on our vessels in compliance with the 2023 EXI regulations and with installation of engine software upgrades that are expected to improve our CII ratings on our vessels. In July, the IMO’s MEPC committee met and adopted a revised greenhouse gas strategy that aspires to reach…

John Hadjipateras

Management

Thank you. We are happy to take questions.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our first question is from the line of Omar Nokta with Jefferies.

Omar Nokta

Analyst

I wanted to sort of just follow-up on a couple of items you mentioned in your opening remarks and perhaps maybe first on sort of capital allocation. You have added the final of the four dual fuel ships into your fleet here recently. We've got no commitments from here or no meaningful commitments. How are you thinking about the strategy of the company, the capital allocation? Obviously, Ted, you were pretty clear with the irregular dividends being irregular, you reiterated that. How are you kind of thinking about just the use of capital or use of cash as it comes in? Are there more deals available similar to the way you structured those three TCNs on the seven year durations, and can not be repeated, is that something that's interesting? Maybe just big picture, how do you think about the use of cash going forward?

John Hadjipateras

Management

I think that what you heard is more or less everything we have to say at the moment. It is -- I can't repeat those deals, because history kind of repeats itself but circumstances are not. Right now, right to do the exact same thing with the exact same ships but similar deals and other opportunities are always in front of us and we're evaluating them in the context of the discipline that we talked about.

Omar Nokta

Analyst

And then maybe then just sort of thinking about the market, clearly, it's been much stronger than many anticipated, especially with the newbuilding deliveries coming on. It was interesting just hearing the comments about the market. And I think one of the things that maybe is somewhat interesting is the fact that despite the OPEC cuts you noted that the Saudi volumes or the Middle East volumes were higher. Is that still the case, is that a surprise? Normally, we would've assumed that crude production declines have an associated decline of LPG. What's happened there because of that decline not to happen this time?

John Hadjipateras

Management

Well, there's two elements of that. One is that when you see crude production cuts, that doesn't include gas production. So a lot of the LPG that we carry is associated with natural gas and the other is timing. And then you never know with the production cuts, especially with Saudi Arabia, whether they'll be fully implemented, partly implemented or not implemented at all, it's kind of a bit all over the place. So it can't really -- can't say that what we've seen is we can use to predict what will happen. Another aspect -- going back to your question before about our investment -- how we're looking at deploying cash, et cetera. Ted pointed out to me, of course, that it's also -- we're also mindful of the cyclicality of our market, and that it's a question of whether now is the right time or -- in the cycle, which you can, we can never play. But that's why I said, given a 25 ship fleet, which is approximately where we are and a 25 year life, which is approximately what it is, you really kind of as a guide to stand still, you should be doing the equivalent of one ship a year. Not all -- not faithfully every year but over time, over sort of a trailing period, the average, you should be doing that to be keeping the same kind of fleet age profile and exposure and basically to be able to offer a quality product to our charterers.

Omar Nokta

Analyst

And maybe just one more. Just kind of thinking about the -- I think I noticed in your fleet table a couple of vessels that were in the pools have been put on time charter here. Any color you can give on what those charters look like? And then maybe just bigger picture on that, given the strength of the market, has there been a jump in overall opportunities to fix ships out on the medium term contracts, and is that something that's interesting to you guys?

John Hadjipateras

Management

I think if you compare to six months ago, there has been a bit more interesting period. It's the kind of interest that you observe when the market spikes really and the charterers are incentivized to take -- to commit for longer periods to save the money upfront. So at the moment there is nothing from our point of view that is actionable. But we are always in the market and we do have a percentage of our Helios exposure committed on short, medium term time charter out. We think that we have a good product mix, but I'm not sure that we want to disclose exactly what it is.

Ted Young

Management

It's better for our competitors -- it’s for our investors.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Brian Reynolds with UBS.

Brian Reynolds

Analyst · UBS.

In your prepared remarks, you talked about firming of demands in the LPG market. So just curious if you could discuss whether you are seeing a bottoming in China PDH demand, just given some of the deferrals that we have seen on some of those projects? And perhaps how could that impact the arb given that we're trading at historical lows for propane and butane as a percentage of crude?

John Hadjipateras

Management

Ted will pick that one up. We all have very firm opinions and we’re all aligned on it. So you will hear the party line from Ted.

Ted Young

Management

Brian, as you know there is a lot of PDH capacity that's come on in China. The economic recovery there has not been as steep as everyone hoped but it's still coming along. So I guess the shorter answer is, we expect to see continued growth. Given the attractive pricing on LPG, it's a good time to build inventories. The other thing that's important to recognize in petrochemical demand broadly in Asia but particularly in China is that a lot of the steam cracker capacity that's come on over the last couple of years and is on the books to come on is actually more flexible than in the past with respect to taking LPG. So we don't think that segment should be overlooked either. So I think you look at LPG continuing to be very attractively priced to naphtha, naphtha as Taro talked about and you look at, I think what we all believe will be a more sustained, if not as steep economic recovery in China, and I think that sets up pretty well for PDH demand over the coming quarters.

Brian Reynolds

Analyst · UBS.

And then my second question is just around IMO. With the meeting behind us, just curious if management is looking at any subtle or maybe more than subtle strategic adjustments after the meeting, or was that kind of inline with the current expectations and future strategic decisions?

John Hadjipateras

Management

Subtle. John Lycouris, are you capable of being subtle in answering that? We are pursuing a lot of initiatives, but John, on the specific IMO results, can you comment for me -- for us, please?

John Lycouris

Management

Yes, of course, John. So Brian, it was all expected. The IMO was obliged to tighten the strategy and revise it to 2050 just like everybody else has done and it was expected. It is what we have been working for that we will be looking at a tighter strategy for greenhouse gas emissions. And hence our comments about doing all that we can and is available to us at this time and looking at new technologies as they come around. But I'm highlighting again, the last few lines of my comment, which say that we're going to be looking at alternative fuels, at advanced fuels. We will be looking at various measures that we could do, but also carbon capture and storage is one of those measures that we will have to undertake just like we did scrubbers in 2020s.

Brian Reynolds

Analyst · UBS.

And maybe just a quick follow up on that, I know you guys are investigating potential CCS technologies for your vessels. Just kind of curious if there's any initial comments from some of your early findings of how that would work on a lot of your fleet and potential CapEx implications there?

John Hadjipateras

Management

John, you can continue.

John Lycouris

Management

The key to carbon capture is marinizing the technology and reducing the footprint, so it can be installed onboard ships. This is what's been going on right now. We think it will happen and we expect that eventually we will be able to install marine capture technology onboard ships initially to be able to capture part of the CO2 eventually more. It's just a matter of the technology improving in the next few years. And it is there, it has been used by industry for decades, the oil and gas industry and it will be marinized and it will be onboard ships. CapEx will come down, of course, as more sets of technology are being installed on onboard ships. But I think it is viable and possible and likely.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Climent Molins with Value Investor Edge.

Climent Molins

Analyst · Value Investor Edge.

It has been a few months since you took delivery of the first dual fuel. Could you provide some commentary on the savings you're generating relative to burning VLSFO? And secondly, is there any appetite to explore potential dual fuel retrofits on the existing fleet?

John Hadjipateras

Management

The answer to your second question is no. And the answer to the first question, John Lycouris will provide you.

John Lycouris

Management

We just mentioned or discussed this, and I'm happy to repeat part of my comments that the benefit of burning LPG as fuel versus very low sulfur fuel oil currently stands at about $210 per metric ton on a energy density adjusted basis. Because as you probably know, LPG has higher energy density than low sulfur fuel oil by about 10% or 11%. So yes, it is beneficial and it is attractive.

Climent Molins

Analyst · Value Investor Edge.

And I also wanted to ask a bit about the Captain, John. I mean, you have a modern ECO fleet and that would be the sole exception. How do you think about it, is it kind of non-core or are you happy to hold on to it going forward?

John Hadjipateras

Management

We are happy with the ship. She is a good performer and she is not as new as the other ships, but we still consider her to be a very viable asset to use. So she is there for -- we never say no about selling anything. But at the moment, she is not held-for-sale, to put it that way.

Ted Young

Management

And I also -- Climent, it's worth noting that, first, nothing is ever core at shipping, nothing strategic. So like John said, we will consider anything. But also that ship, because when she was constructed actually is ammonia capable to a great degree. So that does provide some optionality as ammonia becomes an increasing part of the decarbonization discussion.

Climent Molins

Analyst · Value Investor Edge.

Makes sense. That's everything from me. Thank you for taking my questions and congratulations for the quarter.

Ted Young

Management

Thank you, Climent.

John Hadjipateras

Management

Thank you very much. And Ryan, we are done here I think. Wishing everybody happy August and looking forward to seeing you again in October. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you sir. The conference of Dorian LPG has now concluded. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect your lines.