Earnings Labs

Louisiana-Pacific Corporation (LPX)

Q3 2009 Earnings Call· Tue, Nov 3, 2009

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good day ladies and gentlemen and welcome to the Q3 2009 Louisiana-Pacific Corp. earnings conference call. My name is Chris and I’ll be your operator for today. At this time all participants are in a listen only mode. We’ll conduct a question and answer session towards the end of this conference. (Operator’s instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded for replay purposes. Joining us today is Mr. Rick Frost, Chief Executive Officer and Mr. Curt Stevens, Executive Vice President of Administration and Chief Financial Officer. I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Curt Stevens. Please proceed.

Curtis M. Stevens

Management

Thank you very much. Sorry for the slight delay here this morning. We had a few technical difficulties. As the moderator did say, I’m Curt Stevens the CFO; with me is Rick Frost, our CEO. We also have Mike Kinney and Becky Barckley, who are our primary investor relation contacts. As we have done in the past, I will give a review of the overall financial results for the quarter and for year-to-date. And this will be followed by some comments on the performance of each of the individual segments and on the balance sheet. I’ll ask Rick to discuss the general market environment in which we operated his perspective on our most recent results and some thoughts on the outlook for Q4 and the beginning of 2010. As we have done in the past, this call is open to the public and we are doing a web-cast. It can be accessed at our public website of www.lpcorp.com. Additionally, to help with the decision we have provided a presentation that has supplemental information that should be reviewed in conjunction with the actual earnings release. And I will reference these slides in my comments. Additionally, we filed an A-K this morning that contained supplemental information, and we will file our Form 10-Q late today or early tomorrow. I want to remind all the participants about the forward-looking statement comment. It is included on Slide 2 of the presentation. Also be aware of our use of non-GAAP financial information included on Slide 3 of the presentation. Mentioned earlier the A-K that we did file provides the necessary reconsolidations. I’m not going to reread these statements, but I’m certainly going to incorporate those for this reference. Before going into the numbers I do want to explain another change that we have made this…

Richard W. Frost

Management

Well thanks, Curt, and good morning everyone. We do continue to appreciate your interest in our earnings calls. This morning I’m going to categorize my prepared remarks into three buckets. The first is a little bit of color observations on Q3. Second is general housing market conditions. And third I’ll finish up with how we are currently looking at the next few quarters from the macro level. Beginning first withQ3 observations. The safety of our employees in the communities in which we operate is one of our core values, I’ll begin there. LP had another very good operating quarter, experiencing a recordable incident rate of 0.66. And at 12 months we’re only average of 0.54. During the third quarter we had three significant safety milestones in our corporation. Our Pangy Puwey (ph) Chile Mill reached for the second time one million recordable free hours. Roxboro OSB mill reached two years recordable free. And our Maniwaki OSB mill reaches one year recordable free. As of this time 43% of our facilities remain incident free through this year. Also during the quarter we were the 2009 National Safety Council Occupational Excellence Achievement Award winner. Our leading six sigma efforts continued to provide us cost and process improvements. So far this year we are at somewhat of an astounding rate of 7.6 to 1 in terms of returns over the cost of implementing that program. The big financial news for LP this quarter was of course being adjusted EBITDA positive for the first time in quite awhile. Even under such disadvantage housing and building levels. Curt has discussed the numbers with you so I’m not going to replow that ground. But while I will add a little bit of color by business and also to the sales and market environment. In OSB I…

Curtis M. Stevens

Management

Thank you, Rick. Chris, if we could ask you to go through the question queue.

Operator

Operator

(Operator’s instruction) Our first question comes from the line of Gail Glazerman, please proceed. Gail Glazerman – UBS: Just starting, your results were a little bit stronger than maybe suggested at the end of September. And I’m wondering if there is any particular (inaudible) that contributed to that?

Curtis M. Stevens

Management

Well, we wanted to make sure that we weren’t over estimating our results. So that was part of it. But September did end the quarter pretty strong in all three of our major businesses. Gail Glazerman – UBS: Okay. And looking at OSB pricing. Your quarter and quarter improvement seems a little bit lower than maybe random links would have suggested. Is there some sort of lag that we’d expect to see benefiting early in the fourth quarter or was there just something with Nicks or some other reason?

Curtis M. Stevens

Management

Well, there are a couple of things that happened there. One, we did have a higher percentage of value added products. And some of those products don’t follow random links. There is kind of a delay where we price it for a month at a time. And so there is a bit of a delay on some of the specialty. The other is that we did take some block buys at the end of Q2 that we delivered in Q3. And so we didn’t get the full up tick on the pricing. So that was a decision that we made late in Q2. Gail Glazerman – UBS: Okay. And just last couple questions. Can you give any sort of update on asset sales as well as tax refunds and what you expect moving into next year?

Curtis M. Stevens

Management

Well the asset sales have been going darn slow, Gail. We did have one asset sale last quarter that we had about a million dollar gain on the sale of miscellaneous timber land. We’ll probably have another asset sale similar to that in the fourth quarter. The big one that we have been struggling with all year is the St. Michel Saw Mill. OSB Mill and that still remains on our target to close soon. But until I have the money in the bank I can’t really give you a whole lot better background on that. It’s very difficult to sell assets in this environment. The hang-up there is related to securing a timber supply to allow them to operate the mill the way they would like to. So that’s where we are. We have been making progress on that over the summer. And so hopefully we’ll have something here near term. The other assets that we have for sale are the big ones, our R&D facility and our hanger. And we wouldn’t expect to see any proceeds from that until next year. Gail Glazerman – UBS: Okay. And just quickly on tax refunds?

Curtis M. Stevens

Management

On the tax refund I think what we said is that we would expect $80 million net. Any payments that we needed to make for the year. And we’re very close to that today. And we did receive, I think about $7 or $8 million in the fourth quarter so far. So basically we receive the 7 or 8 this quarter and that’s about what we expect for the year. Gail Glazerman – UBS: Okay. And next year would you expect any material refunds?

Curtis M. Stevens

Management

Well, the only refunds that we would have would be if the currently proposed NOL carry back for five years. I think we’ve given numbers on that before. If that does go back five years there’s a potential for $60-$70 million in tax refunds next year. Absent that, they will all be carrying forward. There are no further carry backs remaining. Gail Glazerman – UBS: Okay. Perfect. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Mark Connelly, please proceed. Jason Markson – Sterne Agee: Hi. It’s Jason Markson for Mark. New product innovation, including the radiant barrier and siding products have clearly been successful. Will those product innovations coupled with the portfolio changes, like, Canexel help you recover faster than the industry?

Curtis M. Stevens

Management

Well, I think that the new product innovations that are targeted at residential construction will go with the residential market. Where we have seen success is in our home center volume. And siding has been very successful in the home centers. Principally the Smart Side siding line Canexel goes basically through distribution. There’s not a lot of home center but Smart Side has done very well in the home centers. And our home center business for OSB has increased. And I think that’s increased largely because – at one point I think we had 9,000 lumber yards in the United States and the estimate going to be down to 5,000. So there’s 4,000 lumber yards that have disappeared. We think the home centers have picked up some of that business. Jason Markson – Sterne Agee: All right. Thank you.

Curtis M. Stevens

Management

I don’t know if that directly answers your question. But certainly in the home centers I think the product innovation in just the design has done helped up offset some of the decline in housing. Jason Markson – Sterne Agee: Thanks.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Chip Dillon, please proceed. Chip Dillon – Credit Suisse: And I think you indirectly answered this, Curt. But maybe you could just walk through the remainder of these. But you mentioned how you just recently closed our some of your timber related notes payable and receivable. Weren’t those technically taxable and is it kind of sort of a serendipitous result that they settled this year say versus 2004 and that’s why you’re not paying taxes?

Curtis M. Stevens

Management

Well, certainly there is a portion of those notes that is taxable. And that’s in our deferred tax liability. And of course we will liquidate those tax liabilities as these notes become paid. So that’s an accurate statement. So that’ll get folded into the tax returns that we filed. So it’ll be a gain that we’ll recognize this year. Chip Dillon – Credit Suisse: Gotcha. But then again because of the loss situation in the down cycle you don’t actually have to – and probably won’t ever have to effectively pay taxes on the land you sold at a gain ten years –

Curtis M. Stevens

Management

Yeah. It’s a timing issue. But you’re essentially right. You won’t pay it when you recognize it. The other piece of that is we do have – there’s another piece that’s current, about $90 million is due on the Simpson pay - $113 million, excuse me, is due on the Simpson payment at the end of June of next year. So that’s also current on the balance sheet. Chip Dillon – Credit Suisse: Gotcha. And I know it’s early days here but could you give us a view of how you think about capital spending next year? I would of course expect you to have quite a wide accordingly depending on – and I would expect you to answer it assuming things don’t get better, but if next year, hypothetically, turned out to be 2003 and we – after Memorial Day we’re off to the races. What could it be and kind of what things would you like to do that you just don’t feel you can do in this environment?

Richard W. Frost

Management

Chip, I think we’re pretty well balanced in our look at next year. Our guidance that we’ve given, I think, in our various presentations this year was less than 25 this year and no more than 25 next year. And I don’t really see that changing regardless of whether the business picks up faster or not. We don’t have a great huge pent up demand for capital right now with Caviad (ph) that if we had a press failure that we aren’t expecting, those things can cause you $10 or $12 million to rebuild. Chip Dillon – Credit Suisse: And the last question is, without being heavily specific, obviously, we’ve seen on our count, 25% or so percent of the plywood and OSB capacity announced an indefinitely permanently closed in North America since ’06, late ’06 for that matter. And I would image that as the remaining plants, if some of them are older and efficient need – for example you mentioned a case of a press failure or some other big capital need, you would think that there could be more that would shut down. Are you hearing or do you think that there will be more in the industry that may come our? Do you think we’ve pretty much seen it for this cycle?

Richard W. Frost

Management

I don’t really know. And obviously I’m not hearing. I do believe that the longer an asset is left in that indefinitely curtailed category the greater chance for it to never come back. I think I’ll leave the answer to that there. Chip Dillon – Credit Suisse: Okay. And then lastly. What do you have left that’s running in Canada at this point in OSB?

Richard W. Frost

Management

We have Peace Valley, which is our large and newest joint venture. We have Maniwaki, we have Dawson and we have Swan. Chip Dillon – Credit Suisse: Gotcha. And so then what would be down –

Richard W. Frost

Management

Sham board is in the indefinitely curtailed category and St. Michel’s permanently shut. Chip Dillon – Credit Suisse: Gotcha. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Peter Ruschmeier, please proceed. Peter Ruschmeier – Barclays Capital: Thanks, good morning. Curt, have you shared with us a range of what you’re expecting for St. Michel?

Curtis M. Stevens

Management

Yeah. What we said at 25-30 for asset sales is what we said last – well, in the first quarter when we did the Fond deal. Peter Ruschmeier – Barclays Capital : Okay. That’s helpful. And you mentioned –

Curtis M. Stevens

Management

And the reason for the range its payable in Canadian dollars. And so when the exchange rate changes it moves around. Peter Ruschmeier – Barclays Capital: Understood. Okay. You mentioned a $17 million favorable adjustment for the AR facility. Can you remind us what level that brings you to and where that marks stands relative to the original face value? And what’s your outlook for that?

Curtis M. Stevens

Management

Yeah. The face value is $151.8 million. It’s now on the books for around $42 million. The low point is it did get to $11.4. So we wrote, when the accounting standards changed in April we wrote up about $14 million in Q2 and then another $17 million this quarter. So that’s where it currently stands. I think as you know we did talk about it on the call that we did file law suits against the primary issuing banks and the broker. And right now there’s really just – our general counsel doesn’t necessarily like me to talk about it. But we’re kind of in procedural purgatory, is the way I define it. Trying to figure out what venue we’re going to try those in. So that’s where that stands. We have seen transactions take place as part of the public-private investment partnership. And we’ve also seen some level liquidity in similar securities to what we hold. But certainly not near par. Peter Ruschmeier – Barclays Capital: Okay. That’s helpful. I wanted to ask if I could about your volume outlook, you mentioned you’re already beginning to see some seasonal weakness. You’ve got a pretty easy comp year-over-year on OSB. Is it possible, do you think, that you may see a positive comp in fourth quarter?

Curtis M. Stevens

Management

It depends on the level of inventory destocking that goes on. Most of the channel did not add a lot of stock in Q3. Last year one of the reasons the volume was so significantly low is the channel just liquidated the entire inventory that they could. I do believe though on Q4 that the channel is going to buy inventory when they’ve got a customer. They’re not going to stock it in anticipation of a further increase. Now one of the things Rick talked about is if the Home Buyer Credit does get extended and it gets extended as they’re currently contemplating and only through April, it would mean in parts of the country we will have more winter building then we would without that. So I think there’s that piece of it. The other piece of it is, it is heavily dependent on where price goes. Because as you know we have sacrificed volume for price in OSB. In fact, our commodity, OSB going to the building channels is down year-over-year. And it’s down on purpose. Because there was a pricing that we didn’t want to take. So part of the improvement that we’ve had in our results is not taking volume and pricing that didn’t make sense. Peter Ruschmeier – Barclays Capital: Okay. That’s great. And maybe just lastly before I turn it over. Any comment you can offer on input costs? I’m thinking specifically pulp wood, things like transportation costs. I think you mentioned costs were an advantage in the third quarter. To what extent are you seeing some of the rain’s impact your pulp wood costs throughout the south? And are transportation costs in the status quo or what observations would you make there?

Curtis M. Stevens

Management

Well, if you look at year-to-date for the first nine months, we take the volumes that we purchased this year at last year’s pricing versus this year pricing, fiber was about an $8 million favorable to us across all of our businesses. In the fourth quarter we’re anticipating that’s going to be – compared to the fourth quarter of last year, it’s going to be at $1-$2 million unfavorable. And it’s principally for what you said, it’s the rain in the South. We’ve actually been forced to take more down time in some of our mills in Texas and Alabama because it’s just been raining like crazy. So rather than pay the higher price we’re taking the downtime. I guess that’s the way I would say it. Peter Ruschmeier – Barclays Capital: Okay. And cost and availability of truck and rail I would think they’re available but any observations on freight cost?

Curtis M. Stevens

Management

With gasoline prices and diesel pricing creeping up it’s going to have some impact. But I don’t think it’s going to be significant in Q4. Peter Ruschmeier – Barclays Capital: Very good. I’ll turn it over. Thanks.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Mark Wientraub, please proceed. Mark Weintraub – Buckingham Research: Thank you. Just a couple of clarifications. On the $60-$70 million if we go to a five year look back instead of a two year. Was that all related to losses which you will have already incurred by the end of this year or does that also fold into next year?

Curtis M. Stevens

Management

It actually is combination of losses we couldn’t carry back last year plus the losses this year. It doesn’t contemplate any future loss. Mark Weintraub – Buckingham Research: And would you be eligible potentially for future losses or if you do the five year –

Curtis M. Stevens

Management

I hope not. Mark Weintraub – Buckingham Research: I understand. But if you were unfortunately to lose money would the look back period give you more fire power, so to speak or not?

Curtis M. Stevens

Management

I don’t think so. I think most of what we would recover we would recover based on the refilling of ’08 and ’09. Mark Weintraub – Buckingham Research: Okay. And just clarify, under St. Michel, I think you said in the past that that would not be producing a product that would compete with OSB, is that correct?

Curtis M. Stevens

Management

That is correct. Mark Weintraub – Buckingham Research: Okay. And then lastly, I was just trying to fully understand on the deferred tax liability. Could you just go over that again? I wasn’t fully clear whether or not there would be any cash out of pocket related to those deferred taxes or not? And maybe if I just put the question that way.

Curtis M. Stevens

Management

We do not believe – well, give that certainly the $20 million we that received this year we will not pay cash taxes on the $20 million. That will be offset by the operating results this year. Next year with $113 that comes in its possible depending on operating results next year that a piece of that will be paid in cash. But that will a filing in the first or second quarter of 2011 that would get paid at that time. Mark Weintraub – Buckingham Research: Okay. And it would be 35% of the $113, is that the way to think of it?

Curtis M. Stevens

Management

No. The $113 is the full amount of the notes and then there’s the taxable piece of that. See, the full proceeds weren’t all taxable income. Mark Weintraub – Buckingham Research: Okay. And then it’s 35% of the piece of it though, it’s not the full?

Curtis M. Stevens

Management

Piece of the taxable income, that’s correct. Mark Weintraub – Buckingham Research: Perfect. Okay. And can you tell us roughly what that percentage of the $113 was?

Curtis M. Stevens

Management

If you get to Mike, we talk about it in the past. I don’t have it in front of me. Mark Weintraub – Buckingham Research: Sounds good. Okay. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Steve Chercover, please proceed. Steve Chercover – D.A. Davidson: Just wanted to ask a quick question regarding your relationship with the big builders. If I understood your comments you’ve turned down business from them because the price wasn’t satisfactory. And that makes sense. But does that jeopardize the relationship going forward?

Curtis M. Stevens

Management

Actually, we don’t sell anything to the builders. So this would be a channel partner that is satisfying a builder. So if a pro bill came to us and said, we’re only going to be OSB at a $132, and we say we’re not going to sell it to you for $132, that’s too far below our costs. Steve Chercover – D.A. Davidson: This makes a lot of sense. But that said –

Curtis M. Stevens

Management

Really, the only business that we are giving up with these big builder programs is commodity. And the fact of the matter is we could get that back tomorrow if we want to meet the price. But we’re spending our efforts with the builders is going after the Tec shield and the flooring products are top notch series of products that have better margins for us. And when you capture that business and building comes back you’ve got name brand recognition and you’ve satisfied a niche that the consumers want. On the commodities as Rick has said numerous times, definition commodity, you don’t care whose it is. So for regular sheathing we have sacrificed sheathing business but we’ve maintained the value added business. Steve Chercover – D.A. Davidson: So your value added product, will that too go through a third party as opposed to directly to the builder?

Curtis M. Stevens

Management

Right. They still go through a third party but there’s a big pull through from the builder. So (inaudible) for instance goes standard on Tec shields in Texas. Then they go to the channel to add this deal with LP. And the way we do that is we don’t want to effect pricing to the channel. But we do builder advantage rebates that would go directly back to the builder. That’s the way you adjust the pricing rather than having channel partners with multiple prices. Steve Chercover – D.A. Davidson: And the 700,000 starts that you’ve used in your materials, is that predicated on receipt or Harvard or census data or –

Richard W. Frost

Management

Yeah. I’ll take that one because it’s quite interesting. Here is the most recent forecast that I currently have before me. Rece (ph) says 980 – this is just single and multi. This is without say another 50-60,000 in manufactured. Rece says 980, FEA says – which is Forest something or other, says 960. You through those two out, National Association of Realtors says 804, Freddy Mack says 800, NAHB says 716, APA says – that’s American Panel Association says 665, Wells Fargo says 660 and RBC says 651. The numerical average of all that is 780 for just single and multi. We all know that these things are all over the board. And they have bookends on them and so we’ve just chosen 700 by running this through our modeling. And said 700 seems to be doable. As one economist said recently we have to remember that housing has rebounded to an astoundingly low level. The other thing that’s affecting somewhat of our optimize for the future is that Canada is basically come back to normal. Canada is at over 170,000 starts right now because they didn’t have the credit problems that we experienced in this country. So it’s a bit of an anomaly. But certainly we sell quite a few of our products into the Canadian market. So we all chase these things down. And I’m sure we’re going to chase them up. But we’re making our plan on the 700 and we’ll adjust accordingly. Steve Chercover – D.A. Davidson: Great. And final question, back on the auction rate securities. I thought they were kind of short term by definition. So how many of them are maturing now? Is that why the values are going back up to $42 million or are we just going to start to see you getting the principle back and see gains?

Curtis M. Stevens

Management

Well, they were short term because there was an auction every 28 days. That essentially provided liquidity. But they are not short term security. So some of these are 2015 to 2020 kind of maturities. Steve Chercover – D.A. Davidson: Okay. So it was really just the coupon that reset every 28 days?

Curtis M. Stevens

Management

That’s correct. Well, the coupon plus the liquidity that you could get out of these until really (inaudible) in the middle of 2008. Steve Chercover – D.A. Davidson: Okay. Well best of luck. Thank you.

Curtis M. Stevens

Management

All right. See you next week, Steve. Steve Chercover – D.A. Davidson: Yup. See you then.

Operator

Operator

Our final question comes from the line of Mr. Skidmore, please proceed. One moment, let me find Mr. Skidmore. Mr. Skidmore, can you please press star 1, one more time. You may proceed, Mr. Skidmore. Richard Skidmore – Goldman Sachs: Thanks. Curt and Rick, thank you. Rick, can you just elaborate a little bit on if your view of the long term trend in housing has changed at all?

Richard W. Frost

Management

Yeah. I can elaborate on that probably ad nauseam. But let me get it down to a nutshell. Just got back from the Harvard Joint Center of Housing study’s meeting last week. They still stand behind the underlying demand of household formation. If there is weakness in that 1.8 to 1.9 per year household formation it appears to be in immigration. Obviously unemployment has slowed immigration somewhat. The way that I’m boiling that down is the new normal to me taking into consideration some of that is probably in 1.5 to 1.6 level. And that’s the way we’re looking at it. But they when quizzed mightily by a lot of CEOs they still stand behind that underlying household formation information. So, what we’re looking at here to use my words, is we’re looking at the factors that effect the satisfaction of that demand, not questioning whether that household formation will actually occur. And so that’s what we’re all doing right now is trying to figure out how these macro and micro economic trends effect in any given time the satisfaction of that demand.

Curtis M. Stevens

Management

The only thing I’d add there, Rick, is we did have Rece in here and they basically mirrored what Rick just talked about at Harvard.

Richard W. Frost

Management

So I believe there’s no question that it’s going to come back. We’re all just – all of us in this industry are trying to figure out when and how fast. And one thing we can bet on is it will not be orderly. Is that it?

Curtis M. Stevens

Management

I think that’s it. Thank you for participating. And as always, Becky and Mike are available to provide clarification if there are further questions. Thank you very much. And if you’ll give the replay information out, Chris, I’d appreciate it.

Operator

Operator

Yes. If you would like to dial in to the replay you may dial in on the toll number which is 617-801-6888 or the toll free number at 888-286-8010. Your access code will be 44559549. Thank you for calling in today’s presentation. This concludes the presentation. You may now disconnect. Have a good day.