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Louisiana-Pacific Corporation (LPX)

Q1 2010 Earnings Call· Mon, May 10, 2010

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good day ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Louisiana-Pacific Corporation first quarter 2010 earnings conference call. My name is have [ph], and I will be your operator for today. (Operator instructions) At this time, I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Curt Stevens, Executive Vice President of Administration and Chief Financial Officer. Please proceed.

Curtis Stevens

Management

Thank you very much, and thanks all of you for joining us on this conference call to discuss our results for the first quarter of 2010. As the operator said, I am Curt Stevens, the Chief Financial Officer, and with me today are Rick Frost, LP’s CEO; as well as Mike Kenny and Becky Barkley, our primary investor relations contacts. I will begin the discussion with a review of the financial results for the first quarter of 2010, and I will follow this with comments on some of our individual segments, and selected balance sheet items. Rick will then take over give you the weather report for Nashville and then discuss the general market environment in which LP has been operating, his perspective on our most recent operating results and his thoughts on the outlook for the remainder of 2010. As we have done in the past, we have opened up this call to the public and are doing a web cast. This can be accessed at our website www.lpcorp.com. Additionally, to help with the discussion we have provided a presentation with supplemental information that should be reviewed in conjunction with the earnings release. I will be referencing these slides in my comments. We did file an 8-K this morning with some supplemental information, and we just filed our Form 10-Q for the quarter. First thing on these slides, I like to remind all participants about the forward-looking statement comment that is included on slide 2 of the presentation. Please also be aware of the discussion of our use of non-GAAP financial information included on Slide 3 of the presentation. The Appendix attached has some of the necessary reconciliations and those have been supplemented by the Form 8-K we filed this morning. I am not going to reread these statements,…

Richard Frost

Management

Good morning everyone. It is drizzling here in Nashville, but we're drying out after a week of sunshine last week. I am sure that you did see in the news that we had severe weather and a lot of rain in the middle of Tennessee area last week, and we had flooding of I guess, unprecedented nature. It was the worst flooding in history. I'm happy to report and relieved to report that we were fortunate that no LP employees suffered significant flood damage, but the town will take some time to recover. I want to begin my brief prepared remarks this morning by adding a little bit of color to Q1 but not be redundant to what Curt has already said. On the safety front, we got off to a great start in the year, with only two recordable injuries across our system in Q1 and a TIR of 0.23. The other most significant event was that our Carthage OSB mill became the first OSB mill in history in North America to exceed 1 million incident free work hours. Overall, financially we did eke out our first positive adjusted EBITDA Q1 since 2006, which felt good. The housing market ended the quarter with seasonally adjusted single family starts of about 530,000. Each of our three core businesses did improve financially from Q1 of 09, which was granted a pretty low hurdle to jump over, but they also improved over Q4 of 2009 as well. I will make a few comments on each of our reporting segments for Q1. OSB did surprise us in Q1. Our customers’ needs were more robust than we had anticipated going into the quarter. Random lengths price [ph] across the six different sales regions moved upward $60 to $65 on a 7/16 inch basis during…

Curtis Stevens

Management

Thanks Rick. Oneika, if you could poll for questions.

Operator

Operator

(Operator instructions) Your first question comes from the line of Gail Glazerman with UBS. Please proceed. Gail Glazerman – UBS: Hi, good morning.

Richard Frost

Management

Good morning. Gail Glazerman – UBS: Rick, can you give us may be a little bit more thought on let us say what drove the surprising freight performance in the first quarter, and how you see that playing out?

Richard Frost

Management

Well, we had anticipated as we put our production scheduling together, a pretty lackluster first quarter, and demand came out as a little bit heavier than what we thought. We were only able to meet that demand as we had put production on. And when demand is a little bit higher, then the ability to supply it – on a traded commodity it moves it forward. And so, I think one of the analysts wrote about it as demandless recovery. It wasn't huge, it wasn't demand that we felt back several years ago. But it was a little bit more than we could supply. That allowed our traders the opportunity to ask more for the product out in future weeks. Gail Glazerman – UBS: Okay. And I guess there was a specific comment about I-Joist’s inventory being build up, is that something may be that happened in any of your other product areas?

Richard Frost

Management

We built a little bit of inventory in Q1 in OSB, not particularly significant because we don't have the capability to build a lot. But I think we built about 20 million, 25 million feet of inventory in OSB. I think Curt’s reference to I-Joist was that the channel seemed to be replenishing their inventories after dragging them down so severely at the end of Q1 – at the end of the fourth quarter. Gail Glazerman – UBS: Yes, I'm sorry that is what I was asking, I mean do you have sense of I guess where inventory channels for OSB (inaudible)?

Richard Frost

Management

My sense right now, and we don't – we are kind of in the middle of trying to guess at this, but we are wondering whether the channel is taking a little bit more of a position right now than what they were able to do earlier. But I can’t tell you that emphatically. It is certainly something that I am watching. Gail Glazerman – UBS: Okay. And what was your operating rate in the quarter in OSBs?

Richard Frost

Management

Well, I will answer that with a caveat, I have come up with a new term that I call effective capacity, which basically means that taking the mills that are currently running and coming up with an operating rate of that, rather than of all the capacity that could be running. And our effective operating rate last quarter was around 60%. Gail Glazerman – UBS: Okay. And it is the two lines that are down?

Richard Frost

Management

This leaves the mills that have been indefinitely curtailed. Gail Glazerman – UBS: No, no, I know, but it is just Chambord [ph] and Clarke County that were down right, at this point that aren’t included in that base?

Richard Frost

Management

Yes. Gail Glazerman – UBS: Okay. And just in what sense would that, you know, the weather generally drying out, except maybe not too much by Nashville. Just that you will be able to ramp that up a little than the second quarter?

Richard Frost

Management

Well, we will have to see whether we get the orders for that. At this point in time, I just don't know. Right now, we seem to be relatively stable. Gail Glazerman – UBS: Okay, and just last question, Curt, can you give any sort of update on asset sales, I know there was something small in the quarter, but is there anything else pending that we should be looking at yourself holding at decent amounts for sale?

Curtis Stevens

Management

Right. I continue to look at that as well Gail. Financing continues to get an our way. We haven't had any of the buyers, the potential buyers as the two biggest assets fall out. But it has been slow and gathering the cash. The asset sale we saw was a relatively small one. But we're still anticipating it is going to come in in the next quarter, but I said that last quarter too. You need to take that with a grain of salt. Gail Glazerman – UBS: Okay. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Mark Weintraub with Buckingham Research. Please proceed. Mark Weintraub – Buckingham Research: Thank you. I was hoping that you could just walk through in a little bit more detail, how your prices lagged what we see in random lengths and how that could play out at least through the first part of the second quarter, that part which is already visible?

Richard Frost

Management

Yes, Mark, I will take a shot at that and if I miss something, Curt can fill in the holes. If you look at Q1, you know, you guys get various amounts of information, but I will refer to random lengths print, the year North Central began on a 7/16 basis at 182, and I think the quarter ended North Central’s 7/16 at 248. There are six different sales regions and prices during the quarter varied between $10 and $15 up or down from each other in those sales regions. In the first quarter, the North Central was higher than all the other regions except for Western Canada. So our weighted average of sales may not equal the central pricing that some people seem to pick and look at obsessively. There is also a lag on pricing for open market wood. The way this works is that as order files extend, and order taken in one week may not actually be delivered for four weeks. So in a climbing pricing environment, this creates a lag in terms of getting what may print on a Friday, it may take you however long way your order file is out to capture that particular price. So if the market moves very, very quickly you stay behind it. There was another influence that we had in terms of looking at that and that is that our value-added products tend to lag the market as well, because the pricing these products changes less rapidly. We did have a high component of value-added in Q1 with TechShield and TopNotch, and then finally, I think the other thing that influences price, particularly as price becomes higher is that there are discounts on contracted wood on a percentage basis. So, at a higher number those percentages are higher dollars. So that is what happens when the market moves very, very rapidly in the up direction. Mark Weintraub – Buckingham Research: Great. Just a couple of follow-ups on that, can you give us a sense as to what percent of your wood is open market versus contracted?

Richard Frost

Management

That is not a number that we have put out. I don't think I would want to let that go competitively. Mark Weintraub – Buckingham Research: Okay. Have you put out what percentage would be value-added with that?

Richard Frost

Management

Yes, in our first quarter I think we had about 30% of our mix was value-added. Mark Weintraub – Buckingham Research: Okay, and then can you give us a sense of to how your order files progressed during the quarter and where they are now?

Richard Frost

Management

I haven't given that number out competitively either. I apologize for that, but it is just not within our best interest to do that. Mark Weintraub – Buckingham Research: Understood. And lastly, I don't know if there is any help you can provide in terms of given – perhaps if you could tell us where your average pricing in April was relative to your first quarter, try and give us a sense as to what the impact of the lag in the second quarter that is already visible might be.

Richard Frost

Management

I think I'm going to be general there as well, but obviously you saw the rapid escalation in April, and as time gets further from that the more of that we would capture. Mark Weintraub – Buckingham Research: Okay. Thank you.

Richard Frost

Management

I'm sorry to be so vague. Mark Weintraub – Buckingham Research: I understand.

Richard Frost

Management

Sure you understand.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Peter Ruschmeier with Barclays Capital. Please proceed. Peter Ruschmeier – Barclays Capital: Thank you and good morning.

Richard Frost

Management

Good morning Pete. Peter Ruschmeier – Barclays Capital: I had a question similar to the question on the order backlogs and how it affects the OSB price, can you help us understand your raw material pulpwood costs, and whether we have seen the full effect of the higher pulpwood costs, and whether there is more of that in front of us?

Richard Frost

Management

Actually in Q1, if we take the volumes that we purchased in Q1 of 2010 and applied the pricing from last year to that, actually we are slightly positive in wood cost. You know, the problem we had in Q1 was getting the wood. There wasn't any wood available, and that is why we had the downtime in the southern mills. But in general, because we operate both in, as you know in Canada and the US, and in the Lake States [ph]. We do a lot of logging during the winter in the north, and that wasn’t affected by the weather at all. So our costs were actually down a little bit. And as I look forward, I think they are going to be relatively flat, maybe up a little bit in Q2, but not a lot. Peter Ruschmeier – Barclays Capital: Okay. And how are you doing at Huntsville [ph] in terms of fiber, are we close to getting that fiber back up.

Richard Frost

Management

Well, it is still wet down there. We would expect to run Huntsville lot more than we did in Q1. Peter Ruschmeier – Barclays Capital: Okay. Rick, I don't know if you care to comment on Chile and Brazil, maybe you can touch on the earthquakes and what it has done if anything to the supply chain, what you are seeing in the marketplace and just your progress on your Chile Brazilian strategy?

Richard Frost

Management

Yes, I would be happy to. I think in terms of Chile from what we can tell it looks like about 300,000 residences were destroyed in that earthquake, which is somewhere in the neighborhood of 10 years worth of building. So in terms of what that has done for us, if you remember the last call I said we had just started Lataro, which is our second mill up in hopes of running it for the rest of the year. We now feel quite confident that we will run both mills full out for a considerable period of time to help in that reconstruction. So, we did start Lataro up between Christmas and New Year's. Right after the earthquake, we added the fourth shift there as quickly as possible. So both Panguipulli and Lataro are running full. The other positive thing out of this catastrophe was that wood construction held up quite well. So we think that it will continue to help us in our effort to convert building practices in Chile. We did spend sending about 4 million down from Canada to Chile in the immediate relief effort, and for some help to our Brazilian operation we are moving a couple of thousand cubic meters a month over from Brazil. So Chile looks to be full speed ahead with both mills for the foreseeable future, meaning I would think at least a couple of years. In Brazil, we're running our Ponta Grossa mill at about 50% of capacity. When we bought that mill it was in need of some improvement. We do have one dryer and one thermal oil system, which is down and we're looking to perhaps start that dryer and that thermal oil system up somewhere in the fourth quarter to continue to fill in the success…

Richard Frost

Management

Well, to your first point, we only moved about 4 million feet from North America down to Chile, which was to help until we could get (inaudible) up. To your second question, I think first on our radar, which would be obvious is that we did spend a couple of hundred million dollars on building Clarke County. And that will be our most important issue to try to get utilized as the market comes back to us. Peter Ruschmeier – Barclays Capital: Thanks very much.

Richard Frost

Management

Did I answer your question? Peter Ruschmeier – Barclays Capital: That is helpful. Thanks.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Paul Quinn with RBC Capital Markets. Please proceed. Paul Quinn – RBC Capital Markets: Yes, thanks very much, and just a couple of questions. One on value-added, you said 30% in Q1, can you give us some comparisons to Q4 and Q1 last year?

Richard Frost

Management

Q4 was about 24%. So we're up a bit in Q1. That could be seasonality Paul as much as anything else.

Curtis Stevens

Management

But in terms of Q1 ’09, our TechShield was up 50%, and our TopNotch Sub-Flooring was up 24% quarter-to-quarter. That is Q1 to Q1. Paul Quinn – RBC Capital Markets: Great. And in terms of – a lot has been talked about this supply related pricing increases in OSB, what have you guys seen on the demand side, especially from your customers, is it higher pull throughs. Are you seeing things that recovered slightly faster than the – that the current numbers indicate?

Richard Frost

Management

I'm not saying that. What we have felt so far is just a slight imbalance between what we thought we could produce, and what was being asked of us. But in terms of any great underlying pull, I mean I think the numbers speak for themselves. We finished the first quarter at – at an annualized rate of 530,000 single starts. So that is not terribly robust. What we are trying to figure out is was any of that pull forward from these tax incentives, and then what is going to happen in historically Q3, which is prime building time. But we have seen permits go up just a little bit, but nothing that would knock your socks off. So as I said in my prepared remarks, I don't have a consensus forecast that says single family starts are all in that we're even going to crack 700,000 this year. With (inaudible) being the outlier, and they are saying we will end the year at 870. So right now we are in a wait-and-see mode, and we're being quite careful.

Curtis Stevens

Management

Paul, the only thing I would say to that is that we did see both January and February starts to get adjusted upwards in later months, and I wouldn't be surprised if March gets adjusted upwards. Paul Quinn – RBC Capital Markets: Okay. That is all I had. It looks like you're having fun in Q2. Thanks.

Richard Frost

Management

Yes, we had more fun in Q2 than Q1.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Chip Dillon with Credit Suisse. Please proceed. Chip Dillon – Credit Suisse: Hi, good morning.

Richard Frost

Management

Good morning Chip. Chip Dillon – Credit Suisse: Hi, first question is, as you think about your capital spending and you might have mentioned this earlier, and I missed it, but what does it look like not only for this year, but as you think about 2011, I know it is early days, but you are probably starting to think about it and I mean sort of what kind of range do you think you could see next year, or do you think the market is so good that you might pick it up substantially or you are going to be more cautious?

Richard Frost

Management

Well, we said for 2010 is we would be in the 20 million to 25 million and I have no expectations to be any different from that. Next year, probably the biggest piece is the completion of the Brazilian acquisition. We have 75% of that mill, and there is simultaneously put-call in November of next year. So I would anticipate that we would pick up the other 25% of that mill. And that is in the neighborhood of probably 18 to 25, somewhere in there. So that will certainly be in the plan, and then I think we have talked about some of the maintenance we needed to do on the presses, which are – that is probably the biggest maintenance expense you have in an OSB mill. And we do have a press or two that we are going to have to look at over the next two years. I don't know if that will be 2011 or 2012, and those are generally right around $15 million to redo all that. Chip Dillon – Credit Suisse: Okay, and…

Richard Frost

Management

And I don't have anything of great significance, because we have existing capacity in front of each one of our businesses? Chip Dillon – Credit Suisse: Right. Now as you think about your – you know, obviously, as you said next on your plate in terms of ramping up if the demand is there, and we see housing starts to be covered nicely would be Clarke County, but what would sort of be behind that. Will there be other plans that you have down for a period of time that you would sort of put, you know, sort of next in line.

Curtis Stevens

Management

But out of the two that are in line, our Clarke County and Chambord. And I think what Rick said, we certainly would like to get a return on our investment in Clarke County, and if you – I mean you don't have to be a genius to figure out why we made Athens and Silsbee, Texas, permanently curtailed. Because the Clarke County mill can satisfy those two market areas. Chip Dillon – Credit Suisse: Got you. And then when you look at the – I know you talk about this receivable you put back like $400 million some on your balance sheet.

Curtis Stevens

Management

Right. Chip Dillon – Credit Suisse: Just, A, was that tied to timber sales in the past and when did that become cash?

Curtis Stevens

Management

Yes, it was a 2003 timber sale that we did. So there is a note receivable and note payable with an investment by LP of about 45 million. So the receivable is greater than the payable. When we did that in 2003 the rules required us to make that an off balance sheet transaction that was called by a special purpose entity. They changed the rules effective January 1, with changed the rules back to where it used to be, and so we had to add those back onto the balance sheet. Chip Dillon – Credit Suisse: And when did they turn to cash?

Curtis Stevens

Management

It was bullet 15 year. So in 2018, what will turn into cash for us is the $44 million investment. The rest will self liquidate. Chip Dillon – Credit Suisse: Got you. And that seemed like you said 2018.

Curtis Stevens

Management

2018, right. And then as you know, all the deferred tax went to. Chip Dillon – Credit Suisse: Got you.

Curtis Stevens

Management

So, we will get the cash in, but we will have the deferred tax on the gain. Chip Dillon – Credit Suisse: And that is roughly how much?

Curtis Stevens

Management

You know, it is in the 10-K. I don't have it right in front of me, because remember there is three different transactions, there is the two California sales and this one. They are all in that deferred tax. I don't have the schedule right in front of me, but if you give Mike a call, I think it is in the K. Chip Dillon – Credit Suisse: Okay, and the last question on this is, you know, in this downturn, was there anything that you could do to accelerate sort of the termination of some of these installment sales so that the you will closed during a period, where you didn’t have much of a tax liability if any?

Curtis Stevens

Management

You know, we looked at that, but given – and with our expectations of profits in the future are actually in pretty good shape, we have a bullet payment that comes due this June of about 115 million. So that is coming at a good time for us. Chip Dillon – Credit Suisse: Got you. Thank you very much.

Richard Frost

Management

Thanks.

Operator

Operator

At this time, there are no further questions in queue. I would now like to turn the call back over to Mr. Curt Stevens for closing remarks.

Curtis Stevens

Management

All right. Well, thank you very much for participating. I hope that the improvement in Q1 is a look at better times ahead given pricing in Q2. It certainly looks that way to me. So, thank you again and if you have follow-up questions Mike and Becky are available. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes the presentation, and you may now disconnect. Thank you and have a good day.