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Louisiana-Pacific Corporation (LPX)

Q2 2015 Earnings Call· Tue, Aug 4, 2015

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Louisiana-Pacific Corp. Second Quarter 2015 Earnings Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Later, we will conduct a question-and-answer session and instructions will follow at that time. As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Sallie Bailey, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Please begin. Sallie B. Bailey - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Great, thank you, Latoya, and good morning. Thank you for joining our conference call to discuss LP's financial results for the second quarter of 2015. I am Sallie Bailey, LP's Chief Financial Officer, and with me today are Curt Stevens, LP's Chief Executive Officer, as well as Mike Kinney and Becky Barckley, our primary Investor Relations contacts. I will begin the discussion with a review of the financial results for the second quarter of 2015 and this will be followed by some comments on the performance of individual segments and selected balance sheet items. After I finish my comments, Curt will discuss the general market environment in which LP has been operating, provide his perspective on our results and give some thoughts on the outlook. As we have done in the past, we have opened up this call to the public and are doing a webcast. The webcast can be accessed at www.lpcorp.com. And additionally to help with the discussion, we have provided a presentation with supplemental information that should be reviewed in conjunction with the earnings release. I will be referencing these slides in my comment this morning. We have filed an 8-K this morning with some supplemental information, as well as our Form 10-Q. I want to remind all of the participants about the forward-looking statements comment…

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instruction] And the first question comes from Mark Connelly of CLSA. Your line is open.

Mark W. Connelly - CLSA Americas LLC

Analyst · CLSA. Your line is open

Thank you. Two things, we've started to hear from some other players in building materials about opportunities to improve logistics and plant flexibility. And I'm curious, given the growth that you're having in Siding, whether the opportunities for you to manage your supply chain differently might be expanding? And a second question, you didn't mention sales to Asia from Latin America, can you remind us how you think about that opportunity in the medium term? Curtis M. Stevens - Chief Executive Officer & Director: Well, let me turn to the logistics question. We were disadvantaged in logistics for the last couple years primarily with the service we were getting from the Canadian railroads, which caused us to put reloads in locations that weren't very cost effective for us. In the last six months, both our Siding business, our OSB business have spent a lot more time looking at that. The railroad performance improved this year and we're also seeing more availability of trucks in the U.S. So, I do think there's an opportunity to bring down our logistics cost. And as Sallie mentioned, we did bring our inventories down pretty significant in the second quarter across all the businesses and a big piece of that was taking them out of the reloads -

Mark W. Connelly - CLSA Americas LLC

Analyst · CLSA. Your line is open

Okay, okay. Curtis M. Stevens - Chief Executive Officer & Director: ... to make it more efficient for us. As far as sales to Asia, from the U.S. we look at that very opportunistically. Most of what we ship from the U.S. or from Canada into Asia has been going into Korea. There is some activity in China but that's really kind of at its infancy for us. The big exports out of North America were going into Russia. And since the sanctions were put in place, that business has basically been eliminated. We don't do much business there at all. On South America, we did have a decorative OSB product that was going into China, and that demand had been sporadic. And in the last couple quarters, we haven't shipped much of that product at all.

Mark W. Connelly - CLSA Americas LLC

Analyst · CLSA. Your line is open

Okay, that's very helpful. Thanks, Curt.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. The next question is from George Staphos of Bank of America. Your line is open.

George L. Staphos - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Analyst · Bank of America. Your line is open

Hi everyone. Good morning. Thanks for all the comment. I guess, Curt, first question I had, you said that inventories are more or less in balance. So just to be maybe a little bit finer point on it, so would you say that your inventories are where you'd expect then to be this time of the year? And I realize it's very difficult to call this, but from what you can see in terms of your customers and distributors, where you think your inventories are, above normal, normal, below normal as we head into the back half of the year. Curtis M. Stevens - Chief Executive Officer & Director: Well, our sales guys talk to our customers, so I'll put them in buckets for you. In general the home centers don't have any excess inventory because they're pulling out of our reloads and VMIs, so that from the home center business I don't think it's an issue. Although I do think the wet weather in May reduced takeaways from the centers. So we did see reduce demand. In the pro dealer channel, I think they did have more inventory going into Q2, and I think they came out of Q2 with a little more inventory than they expected. With the July – there's usually a July slowdown from a building standpoint. We are seeing increased activity at the end of July and going into August. So I think we're in pretty good shape and I don't think there's a lot of inventory in the channel that's excess at this point.

George L. Staphos - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Analyst · Bank of America. Your line is open

All right, that's helpful, Curt, appreciate the latter comments there. Next question I had, you talked about Houlton trying to move up the curve in terms of value added products, and yet if I was mistaken, I thought I saw prices being down and recognizing one mill isn't going to drive the whole mix. Can you reconcile those two things for us? And then you mentioned that you didn't do any repurchase in the quarter, and that's fine, you have other growth projects ahead of you, but can you comment in terms of why repurchase didn't seem to be as attractive an opportunity in relation to your investment projects in the quarter? Curtis M. Stevens - Chief Executive Officer & Director: Okay, I will handle the Houlton question and let Sallie handle the other one. In Houlton, we saw an opportunity to do a value added flooring product in the Houlton mill, and that's really what we focused on. We were looking at it more from a geographic standpoint in the past, where we had demand in the local geography, back to the earlier question on logistics, and we focused on that. In the second quarter, it was really more of the high performance flooring. Sallie B. Bailey - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Yeah and as it relates to capital allocation, George, we've looked at the investments that we're making in Swan, and there will be some heavy uptick in our capital expenditures in the second half of the year as we finish out the Swan conversion, and those have returns on them that are well in excess of our cost of capital. And likewise with the FlameBlock capital expenditure investment that Curt was talking about, those also are good uses of our cash and provide good returns for our shareholders.

George L. Staphos - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Analyst · Bank of America. Your line is open

So you said FlameBlock could be $50 million, five-zero? Sallie B. Bailey - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: One-five [$15 million].

George L. Staphos - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Analyst · Bank of America. Your line is open

Okay, very good. I'll turn it over. Sallie B. Bailey - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: I think we'll be having trouble with the mic.

George L. Staphos - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Analyst · Bank of America. Your line is open

One-five [$15 million]. Sallie B. Bailey - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: One-five [$15 million], thanks for clarifying.

George L. Staphos - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Analyst · Bank of America. Your line is open

Okay, I'll be back. Thanks.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. The next question is from Chip Dillon of Vertical Partners. Your line is open.

Chip A. Dillon - Vertical Research Partners LLC

Analyst · Vertical Partners. Your line is open

Yes, good morning. First question is – I noticed that the Swan Valley mill capacity had always been listed at about 410 million square feet and then it jumped to 520 square feet last year, or at least in the K it came out earlier this year, and I know that's the one that's being converted. What caused the capacity to jump like that? Was there any capital that you spent there, or was it a change in the mix ahead of the conversion? Curtis M. Stevens - Chief Executive Officer & Director: We were limited on what we could produce from an environmental perspective. And we had a negotiation with the Manitoba government where we put a stack in that allowed us to run at its full capacity. So we made that capital addition, I think in the first part of last year. So it's really adding a stack for environmental.

Chip A. Dillon - Vertical Research Partners LLC

Analyst · Vertical Partners. Your line is open

Got you, okay. That's helpful. Sallie B. Bailey - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Good question, Chip.

Chip A. Dillon - Vertical Research Partners LLC

Analyst · Vertical Partners. Your line is open

Okay and then – thank you. And then the next one is, I know in the last call you talked about the Chambord tree license, I guess, up in Canada and how I guess that's been lost. I guess two questions. One, is there any chance you might get it back, in other words, is there another buyer for those trees? And maybe regardless of the answer to that question, have you thought about where those assets might be deployed, assuming they aren't deployed in Canada or they don't stay in their current location? Curtis M. Stevens - Chief Executive Officer & Director: Well, what we look at, Chip, is we look at three scenarios. One scenario is we get the license back. The province has set up a project office in the region and I think we need to respond sometime the end of this quarter, early the next quarter with a proposal to them on using that wood. So one option would be get the license back and run it. Second option would be to run it with other available wood, which means we wouldn't run the full capacity, but we can run it probably about two-thirds. And then the third option was to relocate that equipment to another region that had more favorable wood pricing. And we're looking at all three of those. I don't really have an update on that until we decide what we're going to do with the project office again towards the end of this quarter or early next quarter.

Chip A. Dillon - Vertical Research Partners LLC

Analyst · Vertical Partners. Your line is open

No, okay, that's helpful. And then on the CapEx, and I could go back and look, but is the $120 million to $130 million range, is that a – I had $130 million in my model, I don't know if that's what you said last time or whether you've lowered it slightly to a range? And then, if you could give us, at least from vantage point of August what next year looks like, assuming no major changes in what you're thinking in terms of projects. Curtis M. Stevens - Chief Executive Officer & Director: Well, $130 million is what we've talked about before. I think the lowering the range, because we have had a delay in the environmental permitting in South America. So, the mill in Chile, we haven't actually started construction yet, so much of that will move into next year as we get through that permitting process. As far as the capital budget for next year, we are meeting as a group on, I think at the 18th of this month, to go through our capital summit for next year. So, I don't really have a number at this point in time. It does look like there'll be about a $40 million to $50 million carryover from projects that will start this year that will go into next year, but I don't know beyond that.

Chip A. Dillon - Vertical Research Partners LLC

Analyst · Vertical Partners. Your line is open

Got you. Okay. So, maybe one way to think about that is, it sounds like your base is around $40 million or $50 million and so then you had to carryover maybe in the high double-digits, and then whatever else you add to that would be what the ultimate number is, is that roughly correct? Curtis M. Stevens - Chief Executive Officer & Director: I will tell you at next earnings call.

Chip A. Dillon - Vertical Research Partners LLC

Analyst · Vertical Partners. Your line is open

Okay. Sallie B. Bailey - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Yeah. We'll provide some guess, but typically, we do that at the third quarter call, Chip, but it's a little early.

Chip A. Dillon - Vertical Research Partners LLC

Analyst · Vertical Partners. Your line is open

I got you. All right, thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. The next question is from Ketan Mamtora of BMO Capital Markets. Your line is open.

Ketan Mamtora - BMO Capital Markets

Analyst · BMO Capital Markets. Your line is open

Hi, Curt, Sallie. Sallie B. Bailey - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Morning.

Ketan Mamtora - BMO Capital Markets

Analyst · BMO Capital Markets. Your line is open

First question on OSB. I'm just trying to bridge the year-over-year EBITDA here. And you guys mentioned price was a $38 million drag. Can you help me understand how much costs were lower year-over-year basis? Sallie B. Bailey - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Well, the difference is at a very high level. The difference between the price would be the cost and the cost would be the improvement in resins and then also the impact of the Canadian foreign exchange rate. Curtis M. Stevens - Chief Executive Officer & Director: And we were ran (32:20) - Sallie B. Bailey - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: And - Curtis M. Stevens - Chief Executive Officer & Director: ... in our mills too. Sallie B. Bailey - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Right, that's a good point. Clarke County and Peace have improved. Curtis M. Stevens - Chief Executive Officer & Director: Both Clarke County and Peace Valley have improved.

Ketan Mamtora - BMO Capital Markets

Analyst · BMO Capital Markets. Your line is open

Got you, okay, that's helpful. And then, switching gears to Siding, can you just help us understand or give us a sense of the ramp up at the Swan Valley and how should we think about Siding production to start with and the interplay between OSB and Siding there? Curtis M. Stevens - Chief Executive Officer & Director: Yeah, I think we've – well, I've talked about this in the past. The plan is when we convert Swan to Siding is that we only will run Siding at that mill. And what we'll do is we'll move production capacity out of our Hayward mill and potentially some of the smaller mills in that region, and we'll use Hayward as the swing (32:56). You recall, that's a two line – three or two full lines there, so we can run one on Siding and one on OSB. So that will be the swing on that Swan. As far as the ramp up, we're hoping it's going to go relatively quickly, but this is an $85 million project. It's a pretty big deal. What we are planning on is that we probably, at least in our numbers, we're planning on supplying the market out of existing mills until the first quarter. So we'll use the fourth quarter as a ramp up.

Ketan Mamtora - BMO Capital Markets

Analyst · BMO Capital Markets. Your line is open

Okay, understood. Thanks very much. I'll turn it over. Sallie B. Bailey - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Next question is from Paul Quinn of RBC Capital Markets. Your line is open.

Paul C. Quinn - RBC Dominion Securities, Inc.

Analyst · RBC Capital Markets. Your line is open

Yeah, thanks very much. Good morning. Couple questions, one on price. We had some price improvement till the beginning of July and then it's come off quite a bit in the last couple weeks. Just wondering what's really driving that? Curtis M. Stevens - Chief Executive Officer & Director: I wish I could tell you, Paul. I don't have a good theory. As I said earlier, we think it should be better than it is but I don't have a theory.

Paul C. Quinn - RBC Dominion Securities, Inc.

Analyst · RBC Capital Markets. Your line is open

Okay and then back to the – your statement on inventory levels in the field, but it sounds like you're saying relatively balanced when your competitors came out and said that it was rock bottom levels for pro dealers; how do I reconcile those two? Does that mean they've got more LP product in their yards and less of the competitor? Curtis M. Stevens - Chief Executive Officer & Director: I don't know how you reconcile this. All I can tell you is Mike Sims, our sales guy, sit down and talk with his customers and he gave me a pretty good rundown before the call here. Sallie B. Bailey - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: I think you're going to reconcile that with time, Paul.

Paul C. Quinn - RBC Dominion Securities, Inc.

Analyst · RBC Capital Markets. Your line is open

Okay. Fair enough. Sallie B. Bailey - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: One of them will play out.

Paul C. Quinn - RBC Dominion Securities, Inc.

Analyst · RBC Capital Markets. Your line is open

Best of luck going forward, guys. Thanks. Sallie B. Bailey - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. The next question is from Mark Weintraub of Buckingham Research. Your line is open.

Mark A. Weintraub - The Buckingham Research Group, Inc.

Analyst · Buckingham Research. Your line is open

Sure. I have one quick follow-up, first off, when you said OSB should be better than it is, was that a reference to price or demand or both? Curtis M. Stevens - Chief Executive Officer & Director: I think it's both. If you look at for the first six months, housing starts are up 12% to 13%, and OSB production, as reported by the APA, was only up 6%.

Mark A. Weintraub - The Buckingham Research Group, Inc.

Analyst · Buckingham Research. Your line is open

Yeah. Curtis M. Stevens - Chief Executive Officer & Director: So seems like it ought to be better than that.

Mark A. Weintraub - The Buckingham Research Group, Inc.

Analyst · Buckingham Research. Your line is open

And it wasn't plywood taking share, and you don't seem to think that it was significant inventory destocking, any other theories? Curtis M. Stevens - Chief Executive Officer & Director: Well, I do think that takeaways were hurt. I mean the strongest housing market in the country is Texas, and Texas had over 16 inches of rain in May, so there weren't any starts going on there. So the takeaways, certainly, in Texas and Oklahoma that Sallie talked about hurt that, but we ought to be seeing accelerating activity. Now the other side of that is all the builders have talked about labor issues, where it's taking them longer to finish a home. But again, as I said, I think they're going to start solving that issue as we go forward.

Mark A. Weintraub - The Buckingham Research Group, Inc.

Analyst · Buckingham Research. Your line is open

Yeah. I don't want to get too much into the weeds, but when you say with all the rain, et cetera, that there wouldn't have been starts. Would there possibly have been starts, but then they actually slow it up so that the wood doesn't flow. And I think you talked about business getting a little bit better more recently and maybe they're catching up, or is that not how it works from a reporting perspective? Curtis M. Stevens - Chief Executive Officer & Director: Well, I don't know how much surge capacity they have, again, because of the labor issue. So I think they could build at a pace. And if you lose a whole month, you've got to lose that and move those starts forward, but I don't think they have the ability to accelerate. And the water issue in Texas and Oklahoma is – most of this is slab on grade, and you can't pour concrete. Sallie B. Bailey - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Right. So you can't really start a house.

Mark A. Weintraub - The Buckingham Research Group, Inc.

Analyst · Buckingham Research. Your line is open

Right. And then, lastly, I guess, one window you definitely do have is where your inventories are at your mills, and where are they – I think you said they came down from the end of the first quarter – where would they be versus where they were a year ago? Curtis M. Stevens - Chief Executive Officer & Director: In our OSB mills, we're down pretty significantly. In the Siding business, we actually had too low of inventory this time last year. We've raised that a little bit this year. So our Siding, we're pretty good – where we think we need to be. Engineered Wood, we brought them down. I think we're in pretty good shape there. So OSB lower, Engineered Wood about the same, Siding just a little bit higher right now

Mark A. Weintraub - The Buckingham Research Group, Inc.

Analyst · Buckingham Research. Your line is open

Okay. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. And the next question is from Alex Ovshey of Goldman Sachs. Your line is now open. Alex Ovshey - Goldman Sachs & Co.: Okay. Good morning, guys. Curtis M. Stevens - Chief Executive Officer & Director: Morning. Sallie B. Bailey - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Hi, Alex. Alex Ovshey - Goldman Sachs & Co.: Couple of ones for you with the correction in the structural lumber price, I'm curious if you're seeing customers switch back from Engineered Wood to lumber as lumber prices have corrected? Curtis M. Stevens - Chief Executive Officer & Director: Well, it's interesting, we just talked about that this morning. We're seeing a little of it but it's not significant. Alex Ovshey - Goldman Sachs & Co.: Okay. Curtis M. Stevens - Chief Executive Officer & Director: Actually, it's more related to some of the fire codes than it is to pricing. Alex Ovshey - Goldman Sachs & Co.: Okay, got it. So you don't think that that potentially accelerates if lumber prices stay low? Curtis M. Stevens - Chief Executive Officer & Director: Historically, it hasn't. I mean if you look over the last eight years to 10 years, that really hasn't gone back. Alex Ovshey - Goldman Sachs & Co.: Got it. That's helpful, Curt. And then just on imports of panels, it sounds like we're seeing that flow on the plywood side. Obviously you don't have exposure there, but I'm curious if you have any thoughts around whether or not the plywood imports could have an impact on your business, and whether or not you see potential for maybe OSB to be coming in from other places in the U.S. – I'm sorry, into the U.S. from other places given how strong the dollar is? Curtis M. Stevens…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. And the last question is from George Staphos of Bank of America. Your line is open.

George L. Staphos - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Analyst · Bank of America. Your line is open

Hi everyone, two quickies to conclude here. Sallie, I remember you saying on SmartSide that you wanted to be, and correct me if I'm wrong, ahead of the market over time because you have great demand for the product; in new products you're gaining market share. If you could, where would you sort of index your production relative to market demand at this juncture? And then switching gears just on pricing, both for Siding and EWP, prices ticked down a little bit sequentially. I'm assuming that's just seasonality, but was there anything else going on that we should be mindful of? Thanks and good luck in the quarter. Sallie B. Bailey - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Thank you. Curtis M. Stevens - Chief Executive Officer & Director: On SmartSide, we are running in the mid to high 90%s on our current production. That's why Swan – the timing of the Swan Valley project is so important because that will allow us a couple more years of growth to come out of that mill. And then we have to start thinking about what the next mill is for siding. So, you're right, we want to be ahead. I think we're probably a quarter behind where I'd like to be, I'd rather have that mill coming up next month than in the fourth quarter. And I think we're in pretty good shape. We're actually – we were on allocation most of last year. We did see some improvements in our Tomahawk operations. So we are off allocation, which is good for our customers and good for us. So, I think the timing of the new mill is okay, it should have been a little bit earlier but I'm happy with that. As far as pricing, a lot of the pricing is related to the Canadian dollar. If you look at SmartSide or the CanExel pricing, it's all Canadian dollar exchange rate.

George L. Staphos - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Analyst · Bank of America. Your line is open

But on SmartSide and also on EWP, was that also largely driven by currency or is that something else? Sallie B. Bailey - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Well, in the case of EWP, currency does play a role because we have some export sales in Australia. There's also mix in EWP and likewise with SmartSide, I mean it's down 1%, I mean that's, you know, mix and...

George L. Staphos - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Analyst · Bank of America. Your line is open

Nickels and dimes, I appreciate it. Thanks very much. Sallie B. Bailey - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: (43:22) Sure, thanks.

George L. Staphos - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Analyst · Bank of America. Your line is open

Thank you. Sallie B. Bailey - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Okay. We'll take this one.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. And the next question is from Steve Chercover of D.A. Davidson. Your line is open. Steven Chercover - D.A. Davidson & Co.: Good morning and thank you. I just got on a bit late but I had I guess corollary to George's question. If SmartSide will be sold out hopefully in another two years, three years after Swan is done, would the subsequent growth also coming from a conversion or something greenfield? And hopefully it's conversion, do you have any mothballed facilities? Can you hear me?

Operator

Operator

One moment, looks like the speaker line disconnected. Steven Chercover - D.A. Davidson & Co.: Curt, Sallie? You couldn't hear my question.