Earnings Labs

Louisiana-Pacific Corporation (LPX)

Q4 2015 Earnings Call· Thu, Feb 11, 2016

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good day, ladies and gentlemen and welcome to the Louisiana-Pacific Corporation Fourth Quarter 2015 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in listen-only mode. Later, we will conduct a question-and-answer session and instructions will be given at that time. As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded. I'll now introduce your host for today's conference, Sallie Bailey, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Please go ahead. Sallie B. Bailey - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Thank you very much, Ashley, and good morning. Thank you for joining our conference call to discuss LP's financial results for the fourth quarter of 2015 and the full-year 2015. I am Sallie Bailey, LP's Chief Financial Officer and with me today are Curt Stevens, LP's Chief Executive Officer, as well as Mike Kinney and Becky Barckley, our primary Investor Relations contacts. I will begin the discussion with a review of the financial results for the fourth quarter and the full-year results for 2015. This will be followed by some comments on the performance of the individual segments and selected balance sheet items. After I finish my remarks, Curt will discuss the general market environment in which LP has been operating, provide his perspective on our operating results and give some thoughts on the outlook. As we have done in the past, we have opened up this call to the public and are doing a webcast and that webcast can be accessed at www.lpcorp.com. Additionally to help with the discussion, we have provided a presentation with supplemental information that should be reviewed in conjunction with the earnings release. I will be referencing these slides this morning in my comments. We filed an 8-K this morning with some supplemental information and we plan to file our 10-K in the next…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our first question comes from Ketan Mamtora of BMO. Your line is open.

Ketan Mamtora - BMO Capital Markets

Analyst

Good morning, Sallie, Curt. Curtis M. Stevens - Chief Executive Officer & Director: Good morning. Sallie B. Bailey - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Good morning.

Ketan Mamtora - BMO Capital Markets

Analyst

First question on Siding. Can you provide a little more color on the big drop in volumes both in production and sales? Curtis M. Stevens - Chief Executive Officer & Director: Well, as we said in earlier quarters, we were in a sold out position we were on allocation. So, we really didn't have any more product to sell until the Swan Valley facility came online in the October, late October, early November timeframe and we've been ramping up that production. So, what we have been doing – and comment I made is unleashing the sales force, that is in fact exactly what we did at our International Sales meeting in early January. We have armed our sales force with the tools necessary to get us back on the growth rate from a volume standpoint. I would hasten to add though if you look at our record results from an EBITDA standpoint, when you're on allocation you do have the opportunity to high grade your customer mix if you will, and that's exactly what our sales force did, is we were able to take the product that we had available and get a higher price for that, that's why you saw the record EBITDA. So, in 2016, the challenge is to go back to probably some of those customers who we high graded out of it, offer them the opportunity to participate in buying these products going forward and manage the gross margin along with the growth rates. Sallie B. Bailey - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: And I'd add a couple more comments on what Curt said. If you look at the year-over-year results, the volume is down about 2%, which is pretty much what we had said – that we thought the volumes would be pretty much the same. And so, I think it's coming as they anticipated or as we'd anticipated for the past six or seven months, and then things are looking so far pretty good for the first quarter.

Ketan Mamtora - BMO Capital Markets

Analyst

Okay. That's helpful. And still sticking with Siding, are you seeing any increased competitive behavior especially as your mill ramps up in Siding? Curtis M. Stevens - Chief Executive Officer & Director: Well, we have a competitor that has been very aggressive. They don't like the fact that we're more durable than they are. So, they're competing against us with us on price. And that's principally close to where they have their facilities. Their Texas market has been a market they've been very aggressive and some of the central part of the country, they've been pretty aggressive.

Ketan Mamtora - BMO Capital Markets

Analyst

Okay. And then third question, just on share repurchases, how are you thinking about it, right now given where the share prices and your view of the OSB market over the next 12 months to 18 months? Sallie B. Bailey - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Well, I think the best way to answer that is with the statement we made about the $120 million to $135 million that we have in capital that is being reinvested in growth primarily in our Siding business as well as capital maintenance and cost reduction. So that's really where the focus is right now in terms of capital allocation.

Ketan Mamtora - BMO Capital Markets

Analyst

Got it. And then just one last question, what was your operating rate in OSB or in any way if you can quantify the economic downtime in the fourth quarter in OSB? Sallie B. Bailey - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Sure. We took about 128 down days, which is the equivalent of just under 200 million square feet.

Ketan Mamtora - BMO Capital Markets

Analyst

Got you. Okay. That's very helpful. Good luck in 2016. I will turn it over. Sallie B. Bailey - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Chip Dillon of Vertical Research. Your line is open.

Chip A. Dillon - Vertical Research Partners LLC

Analyst

Yes. Hi, good morning, Curt and Sallie. First question is, I might have missed this, but what did you all say the total CapEx was for 2016? Sallie B. Bailey - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Between $120 million and $135 million.

Chip A. Dillon - Vertical Research Partners LLC

Analyst

Okay. Sallie B. Bailey - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: And Chip. Sorry, if I could just give a little more color, because I think it's important. About $100 million is allocated to North America and about $35 million to Chile and we would expect the Chilean capital expenditures to be funded within Chile, either through cash on hand or local bank financing.

Chip A. Dillon - Vertical Research Partners LLC

Analyst

Got you. And there seem to be some – like there's a still a chance you might push that out, just some of the commentary, if I heard that right and sort of when is the go, no go decision point for that project? Curtis M. Stevens - Chief Executive Officer & Director: Right. Where we are now now that we've gone through the environmental permitting, and getting the approvals and the necessary waiting period and, frankly, some legal issues that we had to go through. We're in a position now to complete the engineering on that term and the equipment that we take down there. And as I said in my comments, I anticipate taking that to the – we'll do some preliminary work prior to the summer board meeting, but I anticipate that, taking that to our Board in the summer. And that's why Sallie waffled on the $20 million to $35 million it depends on the timing on when we start that.

Chip A. Dillon - Vertical Research Partners LLC

Analyst

Okay. And then, let's say you do get – you do the maximum this year, what would next year's pipeline look like at this point, knowing that it's early in 2016, but I mean would that number likely come down or are there other projects that you're thinking about, maybe you don't want to tell us that would keep the CapEx at that level? Curtis M. Stevens - Chief Executive Officer & Director: We're not going to provide any direct guidance on that, but what I will say is, when we put Swan Valley in place there were some siding projects to maximize our system, and we're doing some of those this year and that will continue into next year. The other thing – and as you look longer term, this was as Ketan mentioned, we didn't have much growth in Siding this year because we mistimed when the new capacity came online. So we have to be cognizant of that and make sure that we have Siding capacity in front of the demand. So, you will see in the next probably two years to three years that we will have to do something to add additional Siding capacity, as we believe Swan will only give us about two and a half years of headroom.

Chip A. Dillon - Vertical Research Partners LLC

Analyst

I see, I see, and then when you look at the Siding segment, I want to make sure I heard this right, you are saying that within the kind of operating EBIT and EBITDA numbers were $6 million of costs this, for the quarter and $11 million for the year that shouldn't repeat in 2016, did I hear that right? Curtis M. Stevens - Chief Executive Officer & Director: You did. Yes.

Chip A. Dillon - Vertical Research Partners LLC

Analyst

Hey, got you, got you, okay. Well, that's great, thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Mark Connelly of CLSA. Your line is open.

Mark Connelly - CLSA Americas LLC

Analyst

Thanks. Curt, when you think about housing recovery longer term and the Millennials that you mentioned, we clearly seem to be seeing more of strength in multi-family, are you thinking about the long-term rate of demand differently than you were, maybe three years or four years ago? Curtis M. Stevens - Chief Executive Officer & Director: Again I was just at the Harvard meeting and you can poo poo him but Mark Zandi talked to Moody's and his comment is demographics is destiny, and he just said with the number of Millennials coming forward and the need for housing, whether it's single family or multi-family, we're going to have to pick up the pace. And I think that was the common theme among the participants. What I believe is that we are probably fully recovered in the multi-family and you should see about that same level of construction going forward. But I think single family is going to see more growth. Interesting statistic that they presented at the meeting is that the percentage of Millennials who want to own a home hasn't changed, it's 92%, 8% said they are happy renting for the rest of their life, 92% said they want to own a home. That's pretty compelling and that's very consistent with other surveys that have been done. What's stopping them today, is that the job – we've had the job growth but we haven't had the wage growth and then the financing for first time homebuyers has become much more difficult.

Mark Connelly - CLSA Americas LLC

Analyst

All right. Okay, that's helpful. One more question, we're used to seeing more of a lag in OSB prices as they move up than as they move down. So how much of the improvements that you saw on realizations would you say was coming from the Q3 pickup versus the Q4 and if we saw OSB more or less hang out would you expect to see a meaningful increase from here in Q1? Curtis M. Stevens - Chief Executive Officer & Director: The way I would answer that is that FEA, Forest Economic Advisors who we use to look at pricing, they have 2016 pricing about 16% higher than 2015. And what we saw in January is we saw a slight pricing downturn in OSB that kind of continued in the first two weeks of February and it's stabilized the last week or so. So I mean I can't really give you much more of a forecast than that, I have missed the OSB forecast the last 9 or last 10 years.

Mark Connelly - CLSA Americas LLC

Analyst

So that puts you on a par with everybody else, so. Thank you very much. Sallie B. Bailey - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Thanks, Mark.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from George Staphos of Bank of America. Your line is open. John P. Babcock - Merrill Lynch, Pierce, Fenner & Smith, Inc.: Hey good morning, guys. This is actually John Babcock on the line for George. Just a couple of quick questions here. First on the OSB segment, I was wondering if you could discuss the non-price drivers of EBITDA. It looks like you got about an $18 million contribution from price, but just want to get a sense for what else might have helped you there? Sallie B. Bailey - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Well, the raw materials, I mean the two key ones are lower raw material cost year-over-year and the exchange rate, the Canadian, U.S dollar exchange rate. John P. Babcock - Merrill Lynch, Pierce, Fenner & Smith, Inc.: Okay. So that was really all – there wasn't much as far as efficiency improvement or any of that really involved in there? Sallie B. Bailey - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: No. The downtime in the fourth quarter of 2015 was a lot greater than the fourth quarter of...no, no it's about the same. Curtis M. Stevens - Chief Executive Officer & Director: Downtime was about the same. Sallie B. Bailey - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Downtime was about the same yeah. Curtis M. Stevens - Chief Executive Officer & Director: We did reduce inventories in the fourth quarter. Sallie B. Bailey - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Right. John P. Babcock - Merrill Lynch, Pierce, Fenner & Smith, Inc.: Okay. Sounds good. And then the next question I had, we've noticed in industry trade publications and comments coming from the builders that there are new entrants in siding coming from…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Bill Hoffmann of RBC Capital Markets. Your line is open.

Bill Hoffmann - RBC Capital Markets LLC

Analyst

Yeah. Thanks, and good morning. Sallie B. Bailey - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Good morning.

Bill Hoffmann - RBC Capital Markets LLC

Analyst

Curt, can you talk a little about how Swan is running right now and sort of what kind of operating rates, is there any sort of startup problems or anything like that? Curtis M. Stevens - Chief Executive Officer & Director: What we assumed is that we would – in November, December that we would basically be working out the kinks and running that really A grade probably in the 20% range, but then downgrade, we'd sell out of that though in the fourth quarter. That's pretty much the way it played out. In the first quarter, we had planned for 50% capacity and I think we ran a little over 60% in January. In the second quarter, we assume 75% of capacity and then by summer, we'd be running right at capacity.

Bill Hoffmann - RBC Capital Markets LLC

Analyst

And so, what do you think from a – from a salable product, what kind of volumes do you think you can get out of there incrementally this year? Curtis M. Stevens - Chief Executive Officer & Director: Well, if the overall capacity because we have to downgrade from OSB because we can't run it as fast as of probably a 350 million square foot mill. So, if we say we're going to run full the second half that would be 175 million then – so, we're probably talking about 225 million kind of numbers.

Bill Hoffmann - RBC Capital Markets LLC

Analyst

Okay. And just as far as the market demand for that – it sounds to me like, you feel like, you can fill that void reasonably quickly, or at least you said like 2.5 years kind of things, so? Curtis M. Stevens - Chief Executive Officer & Director: Yeah. Generally, we would expect to be somewhere in the 100 million to 140 million, increase in volume on an annual basis.

Bill Hoffmann - RBC Capital Markets LLC

Analyst

Okay. Curtis M. Stevens - Chief Executive Officer & Director: Now you do remember Bill that what we will do is we will move Siding volume out of Hayward and run OSB there. So, while that won't be reported in the OSB segment. We will run probably 225 million feet of OSB in Hayward.

Bill Hoffmann - RBC Capital Markets LLC

Analyst

Okay. That's helpful. And then the CanExel business, just given some of the softness there, how is that affecting operating rates in those plants and... Curtis M. Stevens - Chief Executive Officer & Director: Well CanExel is a – it's a single plant, and it's a...

Bill Hoffmann - RBC Capital Markets LLC

Analyst

Right. Curtis M. Stevens - Chief Executive Officer & Director: ... and it's a finished product. So, we sell it as already painted.

Bill Hoffmann - RBC Capital Markets LLC

Analyst

Right. Curtis M. Stevens - Chief Executive Officer & Director: The decline in CanExel really, we had an issue in Europe with two of our colors, that we had – we actually had a legal dispute with a paint vendor on that, but that aside, we stopped selling those products in Europe about a year ago. And we've introduced new colors into Europe, but it's taken awhile for those to take hold, so the primary reduction hasn't been in Canada. It's been in the European business that we were, that was satisfying on that facility.

Bill Hoffmann - RBC Capital Markets LLC

Analyst

Okay. Thanks and then finally just, your drive towards pushing more into the industrials market, what is your mix today and what is the outlook for 2016 industrial side? Curtis M. Stevens - Chief Executive Officer & Director: I don't have the industrial numbers in front of me, but what we did, what we do track is how much of our OSB is value-added and last year in 2014, it was about 40%, and we increased that by about 4% to 44% in 2015. So we did make progress there. That was largely, it was FlameBlock, it was TechShield Radiant Barrier and our flooring products.

Bill Hoffmann - RBC Capital Markets LLC

Analyst

Any thought for 2016, similar growth rates? Curtis M. Stevens - Chief Executive Officer & Director: Well, we're hoping, what my objective is to get that over 50%, but I don't think we're going to do it this year, it will be multiple steps.

Bill Hoffmann - RBC Capital Markets LLC

Analyst

Great. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Mark Weintraub of Buckingham Research. Your line is open.

Mark A. Weintraub - The Buckingham Research Group, Inc.

Analyst

Thank you. Couple kind of follow-ons. Just first of all on that last comment on the TechShield and FlameBlock, is the pricing for that product less volatile than it is for the commodity grades, kind of any rule of thumb you can give us there? Curtis M. Stevens - Chief Executive Officer & Director: Yes, on FlameBlock it is not tied random links, we do a quarterly pricing. So, obviously we have to take random links into consideration, but it's a quarterly pricing, not subject to weekly adjustments. On TechShield and our flooring products those are largely an adder, so they're still tied to random links. And what we're trying to do is move some of the higher end point products away from random links but we haven't done that yet. On the industrial products, they are priced generally on a quarterly basis.

Mark A. Weintraub - The Buckingham Research Group, Inc.

Analyst

And order of magnitude FlameBlock and industrial products would be what percentage of the total? Curtis M. Stevens - Chief Executive Officer & Director: Well, FlameBlock is just in its infancy now. We probably had a 40% increase last year but on a very small base. We expect with the new plant we're putting in place we're adding about 30 million square feet of capacity and there's about 20 million at our partners right now. So, when that's fully running that will be about 50 million square feet.

Mark A. Weintraub - The Buckingham Research Group, Inc.

Analyst

Okay. And do you have the industrial products offhand roughly? Curtis M. Stevens - Chief Executive Officer & Director: I think the industrial I guess is probably around 100 million to 120 million feet. Sallie B. Bailey - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Sounds about right.

Mark A. Weintraub - The Buckingham Research Group, Inc.

Analyst

Okay, great. And on the Siding business, obviously we're going to have the benefit of not having Swan Valley, so that's kind of an 11 million positive kicker. Presumably, we're going to have better volume and it sounded like though that on the pricing side you could see that third quarter to fourth quarter first of all is down a little bit and that January comment you said about things being strong. Can you give us a sense as to what was happening on the pricing in January and some realistic expectations maybe for 2016? Curtis M. Stevens - Chief Executive Officer & Director: In 2015, we put a price increase in place that took effect in January 1. We have not put a price increase in place for this year yet. And I'm not sure we will because we're trying to recover that or get back to the growth rates that we've enjoyed in the past. So I think that you probably won't see any major change in the price because the mix will get better but I don't think we're going to put any price increases in. What you will see is that we will probably go back to some of the customers that as I mentioned that were high graded out and get back into their good graces and start selling.

Mark A. Weintraub - The Buckingham Research Group, Inc.

Analyst

Okay. Curtis M. Stevens - Chief Executive Officer & Director: One of the reasons, we can do that is Swan Valley, it will be the lowest cost plant in our system, so it does give us a little bit of flexibility to maintain margins while giving a little on the price.

Mark A. Weintraub - The Buckingham Research Group, Inc.

Analyst

Right, and presumably you're going to certainly want to be generating incremental profit on that volume, so is it fair to say that you will be disappointed if you don't see at least $10 million of improvement in siding 2016 versus 2015, just at Swan Valley reversal? Curtis M. Stevens - Chief Executive Officer & Director: I would be very disappointed.

Mark A. Weintraub - The Buckingham Research Group, Inc.

Analyst

Okay. Sallie B. Bailey - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: That's very fair.

Mark A. Weintraub - The Buckingham Research Group, Inc.

Analyst

And... Curtis M. Stevens - Chief Executive Officer & Director: I just put pressure on our General Manager by the way.

Unknown Speaker

Analyst

Thanks, Curt.

Mark A. Weintraub - The Buckingham Research Group, Inc.

Analyst

And then lastly, so with exchange rates where they are, there is a lot of talk out there that the Canadian mills are very, very profitable, much more so than the U.S. mills, when you look into your system, how are things shaking out Canada versus the U.S. right now in OSB? Curtis M. Stevens - Chief Executive Officer & Director: Yeah, in OSB, the problem is that all of our customers know that the Canadian exchange rate is down, and so if you look at the primary benchmarks for product from Canada coming into the U.S. which will be the Western Canadian print and the Eastern Canadian print, they are by far and away the lowest performers across the region. So unfortunately we haven't been able to capture all that because they're giving some of that pricing, we're giving it back in pricing in the random links reported numbers. I think currently between North Central and Western Canada, we have a $40 differential, so that more than makes up. So that's the problem.

Mark A. Weintraub - The Buckingham Research Group, Inc.

Analyst

Got it. So actually the Canadian mills are not more profitable per se than the U.S. mills at this point given those price differences, is that fair? Curtis M. Stevens - Chief Executive Officer & Director: Well if they're selling into those regional pricing environments then they would not be more profitable. Now, if they can – if they're closer to like the North Central market, then they could be.

Mark A. Weintraub - The Buckingham Research Group, Inc.

Analyst

Okay. Okay. Thanks very much.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Steve Chercover of D. A. Davidson. Your line is open. Steven Pierre Chercover - D. A. Davidson & Co.: Thanks. Good morning. Can you hear me? Curtis M. Stevens - Chief Executive Officer & Director: Hang on. Sallie B. Bailey - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: You're okay. Curtis M. Stevens - Chief Executive Officer & Director: We won't cut you off. Today. Steven Pierre Chercover - D. A. Davidson & Co.: Well I'm on a cell phone so you just never know. So Q4 certainly demonstrates that price is more important than volume and I think that Swan Valley conversion was part of that and I recognize you've got some other good things going on, but you think this industry can get religion on capacity management? Curtis M. Stevens - Chief Executive Officer & Director: Well I can only talk about LP, Steve and you saw the amount of downtime that we took, we did pull inventories down throughout the year. We just think that if we were more real time with the market and not have an inventory overhang that makes a lot of sense. So we are running our mills to respond to the demand that we have. Steven Pierre Chercover - D. A. Davidson & Co.: Perfect. If everyone does the same thing then we should be in a better shape. And then switching gear to Siding, the new facility I take it that the switch at Hayward back to some commodity OSB is going to limit the chance that you will saturate the Siding market and hurt pricing? Sallie B. Bailey - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: No that's not the dynamic, the dynamic is that we want to run Swan full on Siding,…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. And our final question will come from Paul Quinn of RBC Capital Markets. Your line is open.

Paul Quinn - RBC Capital Markets

Analyst

Yeah, thanks. Good morning, Curt and Sallie. Just a couple of questions. One, you've shown good growth in Siding and also in South America. I just wondering what the growth plans are for OSB in North America given the sort of bullish comments that U.S. housing is still recovering? Curtis M. Stevens - Chief Executive Officer & Director: Well, we still have, as Sallie just told you, we had 128 down days in the fourth quarter. So we'd like to get rid of those first and then the further growth is we still have the Chambord mill that is indefinitely curtailed.

Paul Quinn - RBC Capital Markets

Analyst

Looking at any options above that and is there any change in the status at Chambord? Curtis M. Stevens - Chief Executive Officer & Director: No change in status, as near as we can tell nobody bid for the wood. So we still have a very good chance of getting that back, should we want to start it up, but with 128 down days in the quarter, I'd much rather fill that out and as Sallie said we've made a very good progress at Peace Valley and Clarke County getting them up to their rated capacities.

Paul Quinn - RBC Capital Markets

Analyst

Okay and then just shifting on lastly to the EWP section, if I understood Sallie's comments right, Holden added 3.5 million (54:50), so EBITDA really on that segment in 2015 is really that 58 minus the 3523 (55:06)? Curtis M. Stevens - Chief Executive Officer & Director: For, yes for the OSB piece. Sallie B. Bailey - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Right. Curtis M. Stevens - Chief Executive Officer & Director: Yes.

Paul Quinn - RBC Capital Markets

Analyst

Okay. And then any idea about the operating rate was for EWP in 2015. Curtis M. Stevens - Chief Executive Officer & Director: For the industry, I'm guessing we were at 60%. Sallie B. Bailey - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: That's fine.

Paul Quinn - RBC Capital Markets

Analyst

And you guys weren't much different from the industry? Curtis M. Stevens - Chief Executive Officer & Director: We weren't much different than the industry. We do have a little bit of an export business so that offset a little bit, but we are probably right there with the rest of the industry. In fact Sallie and I just looked at some numbers yesterday and our growth in I-Joist was a little bit better than the industry. Our growth in LVL was a little bit less and then LSL was above. But fundamentally, we grew where the industry grew.

Paul Quinn - RBC Capital Markets

Analyst

Thanks. That's all I had. Sallie B. Bailey - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Thanks, Paul. Curtis M. Stevens - Chief Executive Officer & Director: Thanks, Paul. Sallie B. Bailey - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Actually, I think that's all the time we have for questions. So if you could please provide the replay number. Sallie B. Bailey - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: And I'd like to thank everybody for participating in our call. And Mike and Becky are here to answer any follow-up questions you may have. So, thank you very much and have a great day. Curtis M. Stevens - Chief Executive Officer & Director: Thanks.