Earnings Labs

Louisiana-Pacific Corporation (LPX)

Q3 2016 Earnings Call· Mon, Oct 31, 2016

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Louisiana-Pacific Third Quarter 2016 Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Later, we will have a question-and-answer session, and instructions will be given at that time. As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded. I would now like to turn the call over to your host for today's conference, Ms. Sallie Bailey, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Ma'am, you may begin.

Sallie B. Bailey - Louisiana-Pacific Corp.

Management

Thank you very much, Bridgette, and good morning. Thank you for joining our conference call today to discuss LP's financial results for the third quarter of 2016. I am Sallie Bailey, LP's Chief Financial Officer, and with me today are Curt Stevens, LP's Chief Executive Officer; Brad Southern, LP's new Chief Operating Officer; as well as Mike Kinney and Becky Barckley, our primary Investor Relations contact. I'll begin the discussion with the review of the financial results for the third quarter of 2016. This will be followed by some comments on the performance of the individual segments and selected balance sheet items. After I finish my remarks, Curt will discuss the general market environment in which LP has been operating; update you on his current thoughts on siding expansion plans and the recently announced organizational change as well as to give some thoughts on the outlook. As we've done in the past, we've opened up this call to the public. And we are doing a webcast. That webcast can be accessed at www.lpcorp.com. Additionally, to help with the discussion, we've provided a presentation with supplemental information that should be reviewed in conjunction with the earnings release. I will be referencing these slides in my comments this morning. We filed an 8-K this morning with some supplemental information, as well as our Form 10-Q. I want to remind all the participants about the forward-looking statements comment on slide two of the presentation. Please also be aware of the discussion of our use of non-GAAP financial information included on slide three of the presentation. The appendix attached to the presentation has some of the necessary reconciliations that have been supplemented by the Form 8-K filing we made this morning. Rather than reading these two statements, I incorporate them with this reference. We…

Curtis M. Stevens - Louisiana-Pacific Corp.

Management

Thank you, Sallie. Good morning and thanks for joining us on today's call. Before I begin my remarks I do want to acknowledge the passing last week of Harry Merlo, LP's first and longest serving Chief Executive Officer. While Harry was often a controversial leader, there's no doubt that he was instrumental in introducing OSB to the world and promoting the vision of OSB-based siding. I will start with our safety performance. Through the first nine months of this year, our Total Incident Rate or TIR was at 0.39; and this is also the rolling 12-month TIR. We are on track for our second-best safety year ever. One recent highlight; our Panguipulli mill in Chile, last week, achieved 1.5 million hours without a recordable injury, a remarkable achievement. The safety of our employees is LP's core value, and I continue to be extremely proud of all of our employees who support this view and act accordingly. Today, I'll be providing comments on our results and accomplishments in the quarter, provide a little more background to the transaction we announced last Friday with Norbord, discuss the promotion of Brad Southern to Chief Operating Officer, and give you my views on the outlook for the rest of this year and into 2017. I know Sallie just went through our financial results in detail, but I do want to talk about a few items, because it feels so good. Total sales in Q3 were 28% higher than Q3 of last year and produced net income of $66 million or EPS of $0.45. For the fourth consecutive quarter, all of our business segments recorded positive EBITDA that totaled $111 million for the company in Q3. In Siding, our big growth business, our revenue grew 23% versus the same quarter last year and adjusted EBITDA…

Sallie B. Bailey - Louisiana-Pacific Corp.

Management

Great. Thank you, Curt. Bridgette, if we can, we'd like to go to the queue for questions please.

Operator

Operator

Our first question is from Mark Wilde with BMO. Your line is open.

Mark William Wilde - BMO Capital Markets

Analyst · BMO. Your line is open

Good morning, Curt. Good morning, Sallie.

Curtis M. Stevens - Louisiana-Pacific Corp.

Management

Good morning, Mark.

Mark William Wilde - BMO Capital Markets

Analyst · BMO. Your line is open

Thanks for noting Harry's passing; he really was a very large figure not only for LP but for the industry.

Curtis M. Stevens - Louisiana-Pacific Corp.

Management

That is very true.

Mark William Wilde - BMO Capital Markets

Analyst · BMO. Your line is open

I'm just curious. In your comments about Cook and Val-d'Or, and that sort of 24-month to 36-month timeframe to kind of start up a new mill, should we assume that you're going to move first on Val-d'Or? Is that really what you're saying?

Curtis M. Stevens - Louisiana-Pacific Corp.

Management

Well, that would be my preference. As I mentioned, the difficulty there is we don't have an adequate wood supply. So we have to be cognizant of working with the Québec government and how long that might take, and look at our options. So that's why we're doing the assessments at both facilities. But obviously, converting an existing facility is cheaper and faster.

Mark William Wilde - BMO Capital Markets

Analyst · BMO. Your line is open

Okay. And can you just help us from a – kind of a cost standpoint how the two projects would compare?

Curtis M. Stevens - Louisiana-Pacific Corp.

Management

Well, in the Val-d'Or case, the conversion cost would be somewhere between what we spent in Hayward, which is about $60 million, and what we spent at Swan Valley, which is about $85 million. So it's somewhere in that $60 million to $85 million range would be my guess. On a new plant, again, having an existing site that has the infrastructure will reduce that cost. There is some equipment there, although a lot of the equipment has been sold; and we would think about repurposing equipment that we own elsewhere in North America. But the number's probably going to be somewhere 275 to 300 for base OSB. Then you're going to have the same conversion cost to turn it into Siding.

Mark William Wilde - BMO Capital Markets

Analyst · BMO. Your line is open

So that's – I'm sorry, that's per 1,000 Curt?

Curtis M. Stevens - Louisiana-Pacific Corp.

Management

Per 1,000 of capacity, correct.

Mark William Wilde - BMO Capital Markets

Analyst · BMO. Your line is open

Yeah, okay. All right. And can you give us a sense of kind of what capacity would be at either of those two – at each of those two sites?

Curtis M. Stevens - Louisiana-Pacific Corp.

Management

The Val-d'Or mill has got, I think, a rated capacity for OSB about 320, 330. You have to discount that for Siding, so it's probably going to be in the 250 to 260 range, roughly. And if we were to do something at the Cook site, my guess is that would be a 400 million capacity mill given the equipment that we have already existing in North America.

Mark William Wilde - BMO Capital Markets

Analyst · BMO. Your line is open

Okay, all right. Just switching gears a little bit, can you also give us an update on kind of where you're at down with the third mill down in Chile?

Curtis M. Stevens - Louisiana-Pacific Corp.

Management

I can. We have approved the project. We approved that at the July meeting. We have acquired about $15 million worth of the equipment. Most of that is either on site or on its way down. And we have started the site preparation, so that's where we are on that.

Mark William Wilde - BMO Capital Markets

Analyst · BMO. Your line is open

Okay. If we think, Curt, about CapEx for 2017, I know you put out that $140 million number, but you said that doesn't include anything on Siding. So should we – could we assume that if you move ahead with Val-d'Or that that number is $30 million to $40 million higher?

Curtis M. Stevens - Louisiana-Pacific Corp.

Management

I don't think you can assume that yet. Because if we do Val-d'Or, we don't need the capacity till the fourth quarter of 2018. Most of that work would actually be spent – or the money would be spent towards the end of 2017 into 2018. And I don't have a good handle on that yet. We've been in the mill a very short amount of time, so we still have a pretty significant engineering evaluation to complete.

Mark William Wilde - BMO Capital Markets

Analyst · BMO. Your line is open

Okay. All right. And finally, just with this clarity on Siding, which I think is great, can you just update us on your Engineered Wood business and how you're thinking about that? Your margins are still running pretty low in that business. And I guess I'm also just curious, with sort of clearer runway now in Siding, whether that changes your view of the Engineered Wood business?

Curtis M. Stevens - Louisiana-Pacific Corp.

Management

Well, I'd say a couple things. One, I'd just to remind you on the margins because we looked at the competitive margins between us and Boise and Weyerhaeuser, who just reported, and our margins for our manufactured products are pretty much right on top of theirs. The difficulty you get is Weyerhaeuser looks like they're reporting it coming out of distribution, not as a pure manufacturing play. But the reminder is the JV – we sell 100% of the product, but we only get half of the margin out of that. And then whatever we sell from Murphy plywood into the West and into export markets, we only get a sales margin on that. So when you look at it, we don't have the asset base, so we haven't spent the capital, but our margins look lower. The good news in Q3 is that what's been a drag on this business for some period of time is when we converted the Houlton mill into laminated strand lumber, and we had the best volumes in laminated strand lumber in the third quarter that we've ever had. And actually that mill was EBITDA positive for the first time I think ever since – well, since we've converted it. So we have good momentum on the LSL side that will continue. And then the second thing I would say is we did have the Forest Economic Advisory guys in here and they continue to say that we're going to see a shortage of LVL as the housing starts get towards 1.4 million, which leads us to believe that that's probably a business that we ought to continue to hold on to, to take advantage of that market when it does come back. That is a market that is heavily tied to single-family new construction. And as that becomes a greater part of the housing starts are actually happening plus housing starts grow, we think that we'll get that business back into a profitable region that we enjoyed in 2003 and 2004.

Mark William Wilde - BMO Capital Markets

Analyst · BMO. Your line is open

Okay. That's really helpful, Curt. I'll turn it over. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is from Gail Glazerman with Roe Equity Research. Your line is open.

Gail S. Glazerman - Roe Equity Research LLC

Analyst · Roe Equity Research. Your line is open

Hi, good morning.

Sallie B. Bailey - Louisiana-Pacific Corp.

Management

Good morning.

Gail S. Glazerman - Roe Equity Research LLC

Analyst · Roe Equity Research. Your line is open

Going back to the Siding expansion, would there – assuming you can get the wood license from the government, would there actually be potential at that site for further expansion beyond the existing capacity?

Curtis M. Stevens - Louisiana-Pacific Corp.

Management

I think, again, Gail, I think we have to complete the engineering evaluation. We have done that at two of our smaller mills, which this would be bigger than those mills, but less than the Swan. And ways you could expand that is you could add extra platens to the press to get a little more capacity. We did that at Two Harbors, increased capacity by 35%. And then at Tomahawk we had a plan to increase that capacity by 50%. So that may be an opportunity, but I don't have the engineering expertise to answer that right now.

Gail S. Glazerman - Roe Equity Research LLC

Analyst · Roe Equity Research. Your line is open

Okay. And I presume there are no restrictions in terms of the transfer, the swap agreement with Norbord, on how you use that site. So if you chose not to go ahead with Siding, in theory, it would still be an option for OSB?

Curtis M. Stevens - Louisiana-Pacific Corp.

Management

There are no restrictions in it either way.

Gail S. Glazerman - Roe Equity Research LLC

Analyst · Roe Equity Research. Your line is open

All right. And just switching gears, can you talk a little bit about what you're seeing in the OSB market? Specifically, maybe some of the price gaps. Last quarter, you talked about the gap between commodity and flooring; and also just in recent weeks there's been incremental pressure in Western Canada that we're not necessarily seeing in other regions.

Curtis M. Stevens - Louisiana-Pacific Corp.

Management

In the quarter, it was a little bit from a regional pricing, it was pretty much a mirror of Q2. I don't think we saw any big differences between how the market reacted in Q3 than Q2. What you saw is a little weakness at the beginning of the quarter, then it strengthened. I think a couple things I would say is that the market was so tight from a demand/capacity that any anomaly that happened in the market would drive pricing up; then it would kind of drift back down; then we'd have another event and it would drive pricing back up. That's kind of what we saw. I've been actually encouraged that October hasn't come off much. Because historically you would see pricing coming off in the fourth quarter. And I think Random is only down in a single region last week and flat in the other ones, and that's been kind of the case the last couple weeks.

Gail S. Glazerman - Roe Equity Research LLC

Analyst · Roe Equity Research. Your line is open

And just wondering, anything specific that you sense driving the weakness in Western Canada of late? And then also just if you could touch on the flooring versus commodity you feel, is that what you were saying mirrors kind of recent trends?

Curtis M. Stevens - Louisiana-Pacific Corp.

Management

Well, Western Canada, we did have the capacity come online with the Tolko mill that has been ramping up. So I think that's been a little bit of a drag on the pricing.

Gail S. Glazerman - Roe Equity Research LLC

Analyst · Roe Equity Research. Your line is open

Okay. And were there any impacts either in terms of operations, wood supply, or customer demand from the hurricane?

Curtis M. Stevens - Louisiana-Pacific Corp.

Management

No. We probably saw – and I can't even tell you for sure whether we did – we might have seen a little bit of incremental demand from the box stores. But it takes so long for the money to flow through the system for rebuilding; we're still dealing with Sandy. We're probably getting benefits from Sandy now, not from Matthew.

Gail S. Glazerman - Roe Equity Research LLC

Analyst · Roe Equity Research. Your line is open

Okay. I was thinking that there might be like building sites that didn't work. And then just one last one, as you look at the softwood lumber agreement and potential for trade action, last quarter you talked about maybe potential demand for Engineered Wood from that. And also if you could just give any further update and also any risk to wood cost in Canada?

Curtis M. Stevens - Louisiana-Pacific Corp.

Management

So, I would respond to that a couple ways. One, I was a little bit surprised by the strength of West Fraser and Canfor's earnings. I think a lot of that is they ship one hell of a lot of lumber in the U.S., and benefited from the low Canadian currency, and shipped that lumber into the U.S. And if we do have trade duties in the 25% to 30% level will go in place next year that will probably limit the amount that comes from Canada. So I think that was an impact that we saw in Q3 because their earnings were very good. As far as the impact on Engineered Wood, I still believe that if you had 30% to the cost of Canadian lumber, that we should have some benefit in I-joists and LVL. But we didn't see anything in the third quarter. We're not anticipating those duties actually being collected until probably early the second quarter of next year.

Gail S. Glazerman - Roe Equity Research LLC

Analyst · Roe Equity Research. Your line is open

And any risk to your fiber supply up in Canada?

Curtis M. Stevens - Louisiana-Pacific Corp.

Management

I don't know. I don't think so, because we buy a different fiber than the lumber guys. We buy primarily hardwood. The only impact we've had in the past is like that with the beetle kill, if you're doing a mixed stand, I think it becomes a little more expensive to log it. But other than that, I think it should be very minimal.

Gail S. Glazerman - Roe Equity Research LLC

Analyst · Roe Equity Research. Your line is open

All right. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is from George Staphos with Bank of America. Your line is open.

George Leon Staphos - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Analyst · Bank of America. Your line is open

Thanks. Hi, everyone. Good morning. Thanks for the details. Just a couple quick things. First of all, back to the ability to hold on to Engineered Wood products as you're looking towards a 1.4 million, 1.5 million start type of environment, do you think you have enough veneer capacity to keep up with that level of demand? I recognize that maybe prices on products would move up. How do you think, Curt, your margin cost would hold up in that environment? Second question that I had, just in terms of working capital. It looks like you had a relatively good quarter here. Could you remind us what might have been going on in the quarter in terms of working capital for LPX? And I had one quick follow-on.

Curtis M. Stevens - Louisiana-Pacific Corp.

Management

Okay. Let me address the veneer demand. I'll let Sallie talk about working capital. On the veneer demand, we only create our own veneer in one facility. That's in Golden, BC. And we have forestry licenses there for the next 25 years. So I don't have any concern about veneer demand in British Columbia. We have a very good wood supply and very good tenures there. In the case of Murphy Plywood, Murphy creates their own veneer, so he's not on the open market. So he has plywood operations, so he provides himself. So as long as we have that manufacturing arrangement, again I don't get too concerned about veneer availability on the West Coast. The one facility we would have risk from a veneer standpoint is in Wilmington, North Carolina. But we've had long-term supply agreements with a number of plywood producers there. I think that it'd be more of a cost than it will be an availability. So I think we're probably okay, but that would be the one I would look at as the most at risk because we don't control the veneer.

George Leon Staphos - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Analyst · Bank of America. Your line is open

Right. But you think that you...

Curtis M. Stevens - Louisiana-Pacific Corp.

Management

I also hasten to add that on the East Coast that's where we have our laminated strand facility, and we do have a good wood supply for that.

George Leon Staphos - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Analyst · Bank of America. Your line is open

Fair enough on that one.

Sallie B. Bailey - Louisiana-Pacific Corp.

Management

So, I think, George, in terms of working capital, as OSB becomes a bigger piece of our working capital, the days sales outstanding on OSB are shorter than the other two businesses. So that is reflected pretty clearly in the improvements in the cash conversion cycle or the DSO. And likewise, as we spend more money on capital, we tend to see more money that's in capital in accounts payable. So that's the biggest drivers, along with up to four of our General Managers really continuing to take a focus on inventory and making sure that we have inventory at the right levels, given the demand going on in the market. So we've seen a slight decrease in inventories in the third quarter.

George Leon Staphos - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Analyst · Bank of America. Your line is open

Okay, thanks for that, Sallie. Most of my other questions were already asked, but one quick thing on EWP again, Curt, if you would. To the extent that we look at your results versus other players – and recognizing their moving parts, and directly comparable results are probably difficult to get at. How do you think your shares are doing within Engineered Wood relative to your peers? Do you think you're maintaining, growing, losing? And to the extent you can comment why would that be your view? Thank you.

Sallie B. Bailey - Louisiana-Pacific Corp.

Management

So, our growth rate in volume sales was about the same as the industry's. It wasn't that far off. The big market share gain in the Q3, and actually Q2 as well, was when Boise bought GP's, so you combined the GP market share into the Boise numbers. Although on their call, they talked about that one plus one wasn't two.

George Leon Staphos - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Analyst · Bank of America. Your line is open

Yes.

Sallie B. Bailey - Louisiana-Pacific Corp.

Management

That they were not able to retain a lot of that business and I think last quarter, I talked about a lot of the churn that was going on with the consolidation we saw in the pro dealers, with some changes we made in Canada to our distribution, and with the acquisition of GP by Boise, a lot of that business is up in the air. So we won a little – we probably won more than we've lost. But I wouldn't say it's a marked shift between any of the three major players at this point.

George Leon Staphos - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Analyst · Bank of America. Your line is open

Okay.

Sallie B. Bailey - Louisiana-Pacific Corp.

Management

But one shift I would say is that the smaller Canadian producers are taking more market share in I-joist, and that's certainly true for us. There's a pricing environment up there, and we're just not choosing to play in.

George Leon Staphos - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Analyst · Bank of America. Your line is open

That's very helpful. Thanks, Curt. I'll turn it over.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is from Chip Dillon with Vertical Research. Your line is open.

Chip Dillon - Vertical Research Partners

Analyst · Vertical Research. Your line is open

Yes, and good morning, Curt and Sallie.

Sallie B. Bailey - Louisiana-Pacific Corp.

Management

Good morning.

Chip Dillon - Vertical Research Partners

Analyst · Vertical Research. Your line is open

First question, Curt, you mentioned that the base OSB, to put that in at say 400 million square feet would be around, I think you said 275 to 300 a 1,000 at Cook. Now there is existing equipment. If you didn't have existing equipment, how much would that cost be? In other words, how much do you save by both using their equipment and repurposing some of your own?

Curtis M. Stevens - Louisiana-Pacific Corp.

Management

The last few OSB mills that have been built are roughly $325 million per 1,000 square feet, and I haven't heard a number on Martco, but I'm guessing that that number is about the same. But the two Grant mills in South Carolina, that now GP owns, our mill in Alabama, and the joint venture mill in Peace Valley were all in that $310 million to $325 million kind of range.

Chip Dillon - Vertical Research Partners

Analyst · Vertical Research. Your line is open

And there were a slew of plant shutdown -- in fact, the other Pollux/Ainsworth wins in that same area, and a lot of others that were shut down I guess in 2006 and 2007. And so what you're suggesting, I guess, is that a lot of these facilities are -- you would have to spend maybe 80% of what you would spend to get them back to running again as much as you would spend on a new mill. In other words, it might not – that's just an argument why it might not be worth even building these things or restarting them. Because you'd have to go ahead and build a whole new mill and maybe you want to start from scratch anyway. Does that make sense?

Curtis M. Stevens - Louisiana-Pacific Corp.

Management

I think, in a lot of ways it does because you can have the newest technology. But the advantage at Cook for us, it's in the same region where the Hoyt Lakes site was; it's a good aspen wood basket; we have the incentives both from an operating standpoint and to offset some of the construction cost. And the Cook site has already got rail to it, it's already got a wood yard on it. But we happen to – actually we've been using that wood yard for the last couple years as a satellite yard to our other mills in the area. So it's got good logistics. It's got a good labor force in the area. So there's some real advantages to using that site rather than just starting with a piece of raw land. I just gave you – I'll give you an example. At the Hoyt Lakes site, we figured it was going to cost us $30 million to bring rail in, and that included building a trestle over the river, dealing with wetlands, putting the track in. And we won't have to spend that now.

Chip Dillon - Vertical Research Partners

Analyst · Vertical Research. Your line is open

Understood. Now, shifting gears a little bit, Sallie, that was a great rundown about the whole timber unwind. And so it looks like, obviously, you'll make $41 million in cash, but then you're going to give some of that up and maybe all of it in terms of the deferred taxes being paid. You did mention that of that $121 million, a bit of it would be offset by carryovers. And, I know we can kind of make a guess looking at the K from last year; but can you just give us a rough ballpark? I mean, do you think half of that $121 million, or is it two-thirds, or a one-third? What would be kind of ballpark that at?

Sallie B. Bailey - Louisiana-Pacific Corp.

Management

It is – and I think we actually put this into the original announcement, it's a little over $70 million deferred tax assets that would be used.

Chip Dillon - Vertical Research Partners

Analyst · Vertical Research. Your line is open

Okay. Okay. So we should basically think that this whole thing is going to cost you $10 million. That you'll use the $70 million, so your cash taxes are $50 million, and then you get $41 million from unwinding the receivable payable. So your net cost is $10 million.

Sallie B. Bailey - Louisiana-Pacific Corp.

Management

From a cash basis, yes. But then you have to think about what our earnings are in 2016 and that we'll start paying taxes on those because we'll use up our – for the U.S., we'll use up our deferred tax assets and then some.

Chip Dillon - Vertical Research Partners

Analyst · Vertical Research. Your line is open

Yeah, I see, so indirectly there'll be a little more cost to the extent you're profitable in the U.S. this year. I got you. And then the last question is, just to make sure I heard this right. You said, I think, Curt, in Chile, you'd bought – it was at 1-5 million, $15 million in equipment that you had already bought?

Curtis M. Stevens - Louisiana-Pacific Corp.

Management

Yes.

Chip Dillon - Vertical Research Partners

Analyst · Vertical Research. Your line is open

Okay, not $50 million, okay, I see. All right, that is all I need. Thanks very much.

Curtis M. Stevens - Louisiana-Pacific Corp.

Management

Great.

Sallie B. Bailey - Louisiana-Pacific Corp.

Management

Thanks, Chip.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is from Mark Connelly with CLSA. Your line is open.

Scott Liebman - CLSA Americas LLC

Analyst · CLSA. Your line is open

Hey, guys. It's Scott Liebman in for Mark.

Sallie B. Bailey - Louisiana-Pacific Corp.

Management

Hi, Scott.

Scott Liebman - CLSA Americas LLC

Analyst · CLSA. Your line is open

Two quick questions for you. The first one is, in the third quarter, how much of the rise in OSB prices hit your Engineered Wood business? And is that a fairly normal amount? And what are your thoughts on the fourth quarter, assuming OSB prices hold where they are?

Curtis M. Stevens - Louisiana-Pacific Corp.

Management

It was relatively small amount. It's probably between $1 million and $1.5 million. And part of the offset to that is we did sell some OSB out of Houlton; so if you net it, it was probably right around $1 million negative impact.

Scott Liebman - CLSA Americas LLC

Analyst · CLSA. Your line is open

Okay. And Houlton is in that segment?

Curtis M. Stevens - Louisiana-Pacific Corp.

Management

Correct.

Sallie B. Bailey - Louisiana-Pacific Corp.

Management

Right.

Scott Liebman - CLSA Americas LLC

Analyst · CLSA. Your line is open

Got you. Okay. And then just looking at the idle OSB capacity that's out there in North America right now, how much of that capacity do you think might ultimately restart if housing was a little bit stronger than we're experiencing now?

Curtis M. Stevens - Louisiana-Pacific Corp.

Management

Well, I think that as a rule of thumb – I've talked about this before, it's about 1.1 billion square feet of demand for every 100,000 housing starts. So if you think we're going to have 80,000 housing starts, there's going to be demand of roughly 900 million square feet that we're going to need on top of that. And I haven't seen the industry numbers, but I've seen what Weyerhaeuser ran at, which they said they ran at 102% of capacity in the third quarter. And I think Norbord was in the high 90%s. We were in the low 90%s. And now with this swap, we're going to – if you took Chambord or that number, we'd be even a higher percentage. So I don't think there's a lot of available capacity to satisfy that increase, 800 million square feet to 900 million square feet of demand next year. So we will need some additional restarts or new mills. And as you know, the Martco mill is slated to start up sometime the second half of next year. I don't think it will have a big impact on 2017, but it will on 2018. And then, for us, we don't have anything left to start unless we start Val-d'Or up as an OSB mill because Chambord is not in our portfolio any longer. And then our competitors – I did read the Norbord transcript and I think their first priority is going to be the Huguley mill to satisfy demand in the Southeast, Southwest.

Scott Liebman - CLSA Americas LLC

Analyst · CLSA. Your line is open

Okay, great. That's very helpful. Thanks, guys.

Sallie B. Bailey - Louisiana-Pacific Corp.

Management

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

The next question is from Bill Hoffmann with RBC Capital Markets. Your line is open.

Bill Hoffmann - RBC Capital Markets LLC

Analyst · RBC Capital Markets. Your line is open

Hi, yeah. Thanks, good morning.

Curtis M. Stevens - Louisiana-Pacific Corp.

Management

Bill.

Bill Hoffmann - RBC Capital Markets LLC

Analyst · RBC Capital Markets. Your line is open

Curt, can you talk a little bit about the Cook site? Is there any possibility that you would go put OSB capacity in there as well? And is the fiber basket accessible for that?

Curtis M. Stevens - Louisiana-Pacific Corp.

Management

Well, you certainly can use aspen for OSB. So there's no – nothing from a fiber supply that would preclude you from doing that. It's really – the intention is to make that a siding facility. But one of the things you heard me say is I don't mind being early with siding capacity because I can run OSB until the siding fills it out.

Bill Hoffmann - RBC Capital Markets LLC

Analyst · RBC Capital Markets. Your line is open

Right.

Curtis M. Stevens - Louisiana-Pacific Corp.

Management

So as an example, when we started up Swan Valley, we're running that as a siding mill, but we converted one of the lines at Hayward back to OSB. And so that's every month there's – we're making less and less OSB as we make more Siding. And that's exactly what we would probably do at both Val-d'Or during the conversion and at an additional mill in Cook.

Bill Hoffmann - RBC Capital Markets LLC

Analyst · RBC Capital Markets. Your line is open

And just from a cost standpoint, do you expect that the Cook lathe (49:58) can be as cost competitive as your other sites?

Curtis M. Stevens - Louisiana-Pacific Corp.

Management

I think so. One of our best mills in Sagola, Michigan, which is not very far away, so I don't have any reason to believe it won't be competitive.

Bill Hoffmann - RBC Capital Markets LLC

Analyst · RBC Capital Markets. Your line is open

Okay, thank you. That was it.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is from Steve Chercover with Davidson. Your line is open. Steven Pierre Chercover - D.A. Davidson & Co.: Thank you. Well done. So, I guess, beating a dead horse, I just wanted to clarify, the ownership of the Cook OSB mill, it was no longer part of the Norbord/Ainsworth family, right?

Curtis M. Stevens - Louisiana-Pacific Corp.

Management

Well, what happened is before Norbord bought Ainsworth, Ainsworth sold that site to a scrap dealer. They were taking equipment out and piecemealing to anybody that wanted to buy the equipment or selling the rest as scrap. We were leasing it from that scrap dealer for the wood yard for the last couple years. So it has supported our other mills in the region. So no – so we actually purchased the site in September from the scrap dealer. Steven Pierre Chercover - D.A. Davidson & Co.: Got it. I was flying my drone over there and it looks like there's also a biomass facility or something. But – okay. And one other thing, switching gears, can you discuss the seasonality of Siding? Because, I think, intuitively, I would have thought that, like OSB, peak demand would be in Q3; but that doesn't appear to be the case, at least the last couple years.

Curtis M. Stevens - Louisiana-Pacific Corp.

Management

Yeah, it's a great question, and I actually – I have the answer for that. In 10 years out of the last 11 years, Q2 has been higher volume than Q3. And the reason for that is that we load up the pre-finishers in Q1 and Q2 for the repair, remodel market, and then they sell out of inventory in Q3 and into Q4. Steven Pierre Chercover - D.A. Davidson & Co.: Got it. Okay.

Curtis M. Stevens - Louisiana-Pacific Corp.

Management

That's really what it is. (52:04) Steven Pierre Chercover - D.A. Davidson & Co.: Yeah, I thought it might be something to do with a pre-buy or something. Okay. That makes sense.

Curtis M. Stevens - Louisiana-Pacific Corp.

Management

It's actually not a pre-buy; they don't get a discount. But they don't have the capacity to run what they need during the building season, so they have to run the inventory. Steven Pierre Chercover - D.A. Davidson & Co.: Yeah. Intuitively I would have thought people are hustling to, kind of, seal up any structures that they have in Q3 so they can do the interior work when the weather changes. So I thought it might have had something to do with repair and remodel. But that's great. Thanks, Curt.

Curtis M. Stevens - Louisiana-Pacific Corp.

Management

All right.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is from Mark Weintraub with Buckingham. Your line is open.

Mark Weintraub - The Buckingham Research Group, Inc.

Analyst · Buckingham. Your line is open

Thank you. So, with the Cook facility, first of all, just kind of doing the math, it seems like you'd be like 150 million to 180 million or 200 million. Is that order of magnitude right?

Curtis M. Stevens - Louisiana-Pacific Corp.

Management

Well, when I complete the engineering, I'll tell you, Mark. That seems to be in line if we do a 400 million square foot facility, that's what you would think.

Mark Weintraub - The Buckingham Research Group, Inc.

Analyst · Buckingham. Your line is open

Okay. And second, on Val-d'Or, so if it were to be a 250 million square foot facility, 260 million square foot facility, does that – is that about – how do you think about that? Is it two years' worth of growth, two-and-a half years, or how should we think about that?

Curtis M. Stevens - Louisiana-Pacific Corp.

Management

We think we should have growth rates in volume 12% to 14% a year. And today we're selling 850 million square feet, is that right? 950 million square feet. So, we're almost at 1 billion square feet right now. So I would say 120 million to 140 million a year. So, yeah, you're somewhere in that ballpark.

Mark Weintraub - The Buckingham Research Group, Inc.

Analyst · Buckingham. Your line is open

Okay, great. And then lastly, you've got a lot of cash now, it seems, more – historically, you've talked about wanting, I believe, about $300 million in cash at the ready.

Curtis M. Stevens - Louisiana-Pacific Corp.

Management

$250 million to $300 million, yes.

Mark Weintraub - The Buckingham Research Group, Inc.

Analyst · Buckingham. Your line is open

$250 million to $300 million? So maybe kind of update us on the thinking there. And given that you have such a strong cash position, excellent liquidity, and I think you have referenced contemplating at some point the question of returning cash to shareholders, maybe any update on thoughts in that vein.

Curtis M. Stevens - Louisiana-Pacific Corp.

Management

What I said on the last call is that, we would come in to our board in early February with an update on kind of our capital allocation and how we would look at that, which would include returning cash to shareholders. We would plan on having that discussion with them in the early February. And then if there were an action on a dividend or a share repurchase, probably it wouldn't happen until the May meeting. We do have $100 million share repurchase; but as I – again, what I said on the last meeting is I don't have unanimous support for that at the board. There's varying views. The other thing I think is important is that we've got a lot of opportunities for reinvesting our cash in South America, reinvesting our cash in Siding. We've been doing a lot of work over the last several years on growth, innovation, and new products and new markets. So we've got some pretty exciting things that we're trying to explore internally before we either do share repurchase or dividend.

Mark Weintraub - The Buckingham Research Group, Inc.

Analyst · Buckingham. Your line is open

Okay, great. Is that $250 million, $300 million number for cash, though, is that still kind of an updated view? Or given the list of...?

Curtis M. Stevens - Louisiana-Pacific Corp.

Management

It's the best view I have right now. When Sallie gets the work done in January, she'll give me another update. Do you have another update, Sallie?

Sallie B. Bailey - Louisiana-Pacific Corp.

Management

No, I do not. But I assure you, Curt, you will be the first to know.

Mark Weintraub - The Buckingham Research Group, Inc.

Analyst · Buckingham. Your line is open

Perfect. Thank you, guys.

Operator

Operator

And our next question come is from Paul Quinn with RBC Capital Market. Your line is open.

Paul Quinn - RBC Capital Markets

Analyst · RBC Capital Market. Your line is open

Yeah. Thanks very much and good morning.

Curtis M. Stevens - Louisiana-Pacific Corp.

Management

Good morning.

Sallie B. Bailey - Louisiana-Pacific Corp.

Management

Good morning.

Paul Quinn - RBC Capital Markets

Analyst · RBC Capital Market. Your line is open

Hey, just a question on the Siding volume. It looks like the volumes are up 15% year-to-date, and you're sort of referencing 12% to 14% growth in that business. What is – if you could dive into the details on where you're taking market share in that business? And then, just because of the mill swap with Val-d'Or, Val-d'Or was a mill that Norbord contemplated doing some siding. So does that preclude Norbord as competing against you in siding?

Curtis M. Stevens - Louisiana-Pacific Corp.

Management

I have reviewed their transcript, and I think Peter did say something about not entering the siding market in the near term. But, I mean, I hate to speculate on what they might do. As you know, we have a 20-year history in Siding. We have early warts (56:53) and beatings around siding. We haven't had anything in the near – in the last 15 years. It's been a great product with a great warranty history. We do have 140 trained salespeople in the field selling that. We've got a marketing team that's probably 15 people or 20 people. It would take a lot for somebody to compete against us at Siding, much more than just being able to manufacture the product. As far as where we're seeing growth, home centers were relatively flat. With the imports of plywood coming in from Chile and Brazil, we did see some aggressive pricing on T1-11 siding in the boxes, which I think probably hurt our panel siding a little bit. But we've been pretty flat there. So most of the growth we have seen has been in the repair, remodel side with the pre-finishers, and we've seen a growth rate in single-family new construction. And I guess, our non-residential business, the shed business, has been very good.

Paul Quinn - RBC Capital Markets

Analyst · RBC Capital Market. Your line is open

Okay. Then just lastly, Curt, you mentioned that you're not retiring any time soon. But one I dive into your press releases, it looks like you got named COO back in November of 2011 and six months later CEO. Not that I don't have full confidence in Brad, but that is that the timeline that we're looking at for a transition?

Curtis M. Stevens - Louisiana-Pacific Corp.

Management

That was the timeline when I was named, you're right.

Paul Quinn - RBC Capital Markets

Analyst · RBC Capital Market. Your line is open

Okay. Fair enough. Best of luck, guys.

Sallie B. Bailey - Louisiana-Pacific Corp.

Management

Great. Thanks, Paul.

Curtis M. Stevens - Louisiana-Pacific Corp.

Management

Thanks, Paul.

Sallie B. Bailey - Louisiana-Pacific Corp.

Management

Okay, Bridgette, I think that's all the time we have for questions. So, if you could please provide the replay number, and I'd like to thank everyone for participating in our call. And as always, Mike and Becky are here to answer any follow-up questions. Thank you and have a great day.

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, this does conclude the program and you may now disconnect. If you'd like to listen to the replay, you can dial 1855-859-2056 and use the conference ID of 94568919. The replay will be available in about two hours. Everyone have a great day.