Earnings Labs

Lucid Diagnostics Inc. (LUCD)

Q3 2022 Earnings Call· Mon, Nov 14, 2022

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Transcript

Adrian Miller

Management

Thank you, operator. Good afternoon, everyone. This is Adrian Miller, Vice President of Investor Relations at Lucid Diagnostics. Thank you for participating in today's business update call. Joining me today on the call are Dr. Lishan Aklog, Chairman and CEO of Lucid Diagnostics, along with Dennis McGrath, Chief Financial Officer of Lucid Diagnostics. The press release announcing our business update and financial results will be available on Lucid's website. Please take a moment to read the disclaimer about the forward-looking statements in the press release. The business update press release and this conference call both include forward-looking statements, and these forward-looking statements are subject to known and unknown risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from the statements made. Factors that could cause actual results to differ are described in the disclaimer and in our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. For a list and description of these and other important risks and uncertainties that may affect future operations, see Part I Item 1A entitled Risk Factors in Lucid's most recent annual report on Form 10-K filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission and any subsequent updates filed in the quarterly report on Form 10-Q and any subsequent forms 8-K. Except as required by law, Lucid disclaims any intentions or obligations to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statements to reflect changes in expectations or in events, conditions or circumstances on which those expectations may be based or that may affect the likelihood that actual results will differ from those contained in the forward-looking statements. With that said, I would like to turn the call over to Lishan Aklog. Dr. Aklog?

Lishan Aklog

Management

Thank you, Adrian. So thanks everyone, and welcome to our quarterly call. I'd like to first start by thanking our long term shareholders for their ongoing support and commitment. As we discussed at our last quarterly call. we had some recent transformational milestones that we put behind us and the team is now for this past quarter and moving forward and just intensely focused on executing on our long term strategy that we are very satisfied with the solid results that they've delivered over this past quarter and are really particularly proud that they did so well under budget for the quarter and the year as we can be able to keep a close eye on um some cash preservation. I will note that for the first time we've changed the format here and moving from truly, an audio conference call to a webcast. We did so in response to feedback, including one of our long term patent investors suggested that this would be more useful and we look forward to ongoing feedback to make sure that we are providing the type of transparent communications that we have always aspired to. So let me start with some quarterly highlights; EsoGuard testing volume has increased 28% sequentially quarter to quarter and 436% annually to a 1,088 tests performed in the third quarter and we're happy that we've gratified that we've cleared that 1,000 tests per quarter milestone. We now have thirteen with the test centers that are operating in eleven states and three more are due to open during this coming quarter -- during this quarter. The satellite LTC activity, a concept that we introduced on our last call and I'll describe more in detail later, has been increasing rapidly and now includes about 22% of the patients undergoing the EsoGuard…

Dennis McGrath

Management

Thanks, Lishan and good evening, everyone. Our summary financial results for the third quarter were reported in our press release that was published earlier today and on the next three slides, emphasize a few key highlights from the quarter, but I encourage you to consider those remarks in the context of the full disclosures covered in our quarterly report on form 10Q that was filed with the SEC earlier today and is also available on our website. So you see the balance sheet in front of us, cash between the quarters sequentially decreased by $5.7 million. Our vendor payables decreased by $2.2 million when considering not only accounts payable that's reflected there, but other recurring accrued expenses. It is offset by inner company debt to the current company PAVmed of $4.2 million increase. However, both boards have agreed that that could be settled up in stock in the coming weeks. We have a committed equity facility as you're aware of the $50 million of possibility of stock issuances. We did during the quarter record $1.8 million of proceeds, most of which we had already reported to you as part of our update in August. Our shares outstanding included unvested restricted stock awards as of today. is 39.1 million shares and we are now S3 eligible as previewed with you previously and similar to what we have done at PAVmed, the Lucid board considers it's good governance to have a shelf registration with the embedded ATM on file with the SEC and we plan to do so in due course. Going back one slide. So you see our P&L in front of us. So Slide 20 here compares this year's third quarter to last year's third quarter on certain key items. I'll trust you'll review the information of my comments in…

Operator

Operator

[Operator instructions] Our first question is from the line of Mike Matson with Needham & Company. Please proceed with your question.

Mike Matson

Analyst

Yeah thanks. I guess just doing some rough math on the test center and some of the numbers you guys gave, if you had it, I think that it's about 240 tests of the $10.88 were at the test centers that spot you have thirteen centers that's about by my math, $18 to $19 per center in the quarter, about 1.5 per week. Does that sound right and maybe you can just comment on kind of what you've seen at the centers that are I know some of them are newer. So maybe the ones that have been running longer, what kind of volumes you've seen there on a weekly or monthly basis?

Lishan Aklog

Management

Let me make a couple comments on them, Mike and then and then I'll let Dennis to chime in. So one thing is I did give one to give a caveat that the numbers on that slide is a pie chart was but those were still kind of improving our sort of tracking ability to understand test come through to the ultimately to the lab who the referring physician was and who actually performed the procedure. So we're trying to capture that. There are, so I see, we haven't actually broken that down and I'd be a little bit careful to sort of confirm your extravagant extrapolation there and I'll ask Dennis to chime in if you'd like, but you didn't know one thing, which is that we had test centers in Arizona that have been in place for over a year that are quite a bit busier than we have some that are that would that have just been getting off the ground as we've accelerated growth in over the last couple of months. I don't think we have yet to have the kind of data which i think you're seeking, which is sort of what is the productivity of the center, but I just again want to remind you and everyone that this is not sort of a set like a same store concept, right. The test centers are just like the bottoming. They're just where the tests are performed, right? Ultimately, I do think the more useful information which I think will capture some of the trends that you're trying to seek here Mike is as the breakdown between primary care physician referrals and referrals coming from institutions that are trying to build their own program and right now that number has been bouncing between about 50-50 between the two of them. So I do want to be cautious in terms of not to get ahead of ourselves in terms of the kinds of extrapolations for looking for, but hopefully qualitatively that gives you a bit of a sense. Dennis, did you want anything to that?

Dennis McGrath

Management

Yes, I would say that although that math is probably something that all of us want to ultimately do the chunkiness of yet percentage doesn't lead to the predictive value that's needed for future forecasting of what these test centers can result, some because of the newness of how long some have been operating, but we're still pretty early in the game to be able to put trend lines to that.

Lishan Aklog

Management

One of challenges -- I will just add to that Mike that that we even have some locations where we have specialty practices. We have a gastroenterological practice that's building their own test program, but it's more convenient for them if they have a Lucid test center in the vicinity is more convenient for them to send those patients to our test center. So we're still kind of grappling. It's sort of a three dimensional matrix here about who the operators or, who the referral is, where it's actually being performed to try to capture that data in a way that's useful to understand more of the underlying substantive issues here with going to referral patterns and so forth.

Mike Matson

Analyst

Okay, Thanks. And the volume number looks pretty good. the $10.88, just wondering, the backlog you obviously have done a fair number. I don't know what the number is up on my head, but test to date because you started doing them and a lot of them obviously haven't been paid for but, yet at least so, do you have any feel for -- have any of them got to the point where, it is sort of a right off where you got to that when -- you put that little flow chart up there where you kind of got that final denial stage or are all of them still kind of potentially and I don't believe.

Lishan Aklog

Management

I don't know -- so just to give you a sense about how early we are in this process. So you're right, if you kind of total the number of tests that have been performed, you include Q3, Q2 and I believe Dennis right, half of Q1. Here you're talking several that over 2,000 tests and tests have been performed in claims that need to be -- that have been or need to be submitted and work their way through the process. As you mentioned, that process just started in August. So we're just starting to see an initial trickle of payments and an initial denial. I don't believe we've seen any final denial that would be -- we are quite sure we haven't because that would be quite early, for a claim that was submitted in August. So we've got, as I said, it's been -- we've been paid on a few, in the second quarter. So test claims that were submitted in August got paid before the end of September, but the majority of them are still working their way through the system. So we don't have -- we don't have really enumerator much less of the development on the number that would lead to final denial that will take us a reasonable period of time to find that way.

Mike Matson

Analyst

Okay. That makes sense. I guess I forgot how early it was in the process. So the ones that have been paid what are those all coming from a single insurer? Are they coming, have you gotten actually gotten to be able to get paid from multiple insurers at this point?

Lishan Aklog

Management

Yeah it's from multiple insurers. We don't have the numbers yet.

Dennis McGrath

Management

Again, it wouldn't really be meaningful to give you the numbers yet, but no. no, it's not a single pair. We were getting them and as I mentioned, the most gratifying thing is that they're respecting the list price, not even the Medicare price, but the list of targets that we submit and are paying that at a standard kind of 50% to 60% out of network payment with an average payment around $12 to $13. So, yeah, but I think we really need a little bit of time to see how that holds in terms of the price -- in terms of the number of payers that are paying out of network and frankly, ultimately for the near term, a useful metric that we're really looking forward to getting our -- to get our head around, which is the percentage of the total plan submitted that eventually they get paid out a network that'll be an important number for us in the near term as we're trying to walk down a long-term contract.

Mike Matson

Analyst

Okay, great. thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question is from the line of Ross Osborn with Cantor Fitzgerald. Please proceed with your question.

Ross Osborn

Analyst

So starting off -- it's given last quarter's update that guidelines now include women [ph]. Can you describe how the female population performed during the quarter and how you plan to drive awareness going forward?

Dennis McGrath

Management

We don't have a breakdown by gender yet, but I think qualitatively we're seeing men and women and sort of the proportions that you might see. So i don't have a number to report to you, but we're getting -- we'll get -- a couple of things that we're noting again, do your qualitative that we are getting patients that are consistent with. sort of guidelines, right. We're not we're not getting the patients where someone's referring a 15-year old without -- a 21-year old without GERD that we consider far removed from qualifying for guidelines. It really does appear that the patients who qualify based on the respectful guidelines is our typical patient, which again bodes well for us in our conversations with the payers as if they're seeing patients who where they believe it's not medically indicated based on guidelines would be -- would be difficult. So I don't have hard numbers for you, but I think the ratio between men and women consistent with what we would expect from the broader population.

Ross Osborn

Analyst

Okay, no that makes sense. and then I guess thinking about next year as you continue to expand geographically, do you expect any staffing headwinds with getting nursing practitioners in your testing centers, and if so, what are you doing to mitigate these risks ahead of broader commercialization?

Lishan Aklog

Management

I'm glad you asked that question. It has a good opportunity for me to reiterate what our plan actually is. So our plan is not to continue to grow the test sensors, the nurse practitioner group or the sales team through the year. Our plan previously articulated was to get to a level by the end of this year with 16 test centers and nurse practitioners sufficient to cover those test centers as well as 58 sales personnel. Those 58 target will leak a bit into the first quarter of next year, but that we maintain that as sort of our plan and in the context of our kind of strategic assessment and cash preservation mode, we believe that we'll be able to continue to show steady kind of middle-level test volume growth with that team as they get more experience in the field and become individually more productive. So, we may reassess that into the year as depending on sort of how some of these numbers play out with regard to reimbursement about a network payments and so forth. We're not ruling out the possibility that we could pivot from that stance, but given our current stance where we're very much focused on resource utilization and cash preparation, we're looking to keep those plateau. Now, we still have a ways to go on both of those. So the answer to your question is that I think I said this before, we've been very gratified despite the challenges with the workforce labor shortages and workforce limitations and our ability to recruit both nurse practitioners and sales personnel. There always takes time. It takes time to interview. We're very picky. We have a very fair robust process. We don't just require people without a very extensive process where they interviewed literally half a dozen people or more. So it takes time, but we've been able to secure candidates high caliber candidates that we have a lot and that's true.

Ross Osborn

Analyst

Sounds great. Thank you for taking my questions.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question is from the line of Kyle Mikson with Cannacord. Please proceed with your question.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Hi, this is Alex for Kyle Mikson. Great quarter, guys. Just had a couple of questions for you. So I guess a good place to start would be on the new high volume manufacturer coastline, I was wondering if you could dive into this a little bit more specifically, were you feeling a bit capacity constrained before or is this more so just a pre-emptive measure prior to ramping up the business and this potentially becoming an issue in the future. Thank you.

Lishan Aklog

Management

So it's absolutely the latter. So we were just planning ahead. We knew it take a while. It took about a year, honestly, there were a variety of delays. It's not a trivial thing to take a small batch manufacturer line and move it towards to a high volume manufacturer where these lines are easily reproducible and you can and you could rapidly escalate a capacity over time. So our team, led by Catherine Howard, do a great job of getting -- of working their way through that, but it's all and it was all anticipatory. We also -- we haven't shut down the small volume manufacturing because it's always a good idea to have dual sourcing because of a variety of -- you never know what issues can arise, but this is just planning ahead for a future volume.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Got it. And i know this is looking a little bit farther ahead, but just thinking about 2023, can you provide us any color on, like possibly like a revenue breakdown by customer type or any trends that you're seeing at the end of this year, possibly that could be going into next year, it would be helpful, thank you.

Lishan Aklog

Management

I think the only trends and I'll let Dennis to answer, the only trends are really the ones we talked about were clearly are getting some out of network payments. We're getting paid at that 50% to 60% through the $1200, $1500 dollar level. Here we're working through generating claims histories. We're getting good quarter-on-quarter mid throttle growth, but translating that into sort of predictable revenue projections, it was going to take us several more quarters, so we can get a sense as to what are out of network, what portion of the claim submitted will get paid out of network and how we're progressing with regard to using our clinical utility data to secure in network contracts. So I'm quite sure Dennis will concur with some just leaving it at that. I don't think we have anything more we can provide.

Dennis McGrath

Management

No, that's exactly right to predict. the value is what we're striving for and we just don't have that as of yet.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is from the line of Ed Woo with Ascendiant Capital. Please proceed with your question.

Ed Woo

Analyst

Yes, congratulations on all the progress. Have you noticed any significant either increases or decreases in either nurse practitioners or medical supplies or any input costs or office space, thank you?

Lishan Aklog

Management

So inflationary pressures, no, inflation is out there, I think, we've generally had both whether sales reps or the bulk of our team are to be a well-paid professionals, but in terms of certainly in terms of our budgeting and our targeted expenses for personnel or for even for supplies, we've had supply chain issues which we've described before where we've had to work around challenges with regard to supply chain, but in terms of the -- from a cost point of view, they are there but it hasn't had a significant impact on our business with moving forward. Dennis, would you agree with that?

Dennis McGrath

Management

Yes, I agree. and that the inflationary pressure for the delivery side of our test centers is not as sensitive given the margin level of the next patient coming in the door in that test. So even if salaries or rents did creep up as a percentage of the total revenue opportunity for us, it's still a small portion.

Ed Woo

Analyst

Great. Well, thank you for answering my questions and I wish you guys good luck, thank you.

Lishan Aklog

Management

Operator, do you have any more questions?

Operator

Operator

There are no further questions at this time.

Lishan Aklog

Management

Okay, with that, I'd like to thank all of you for taking the time and we listening to our update today. Hopefully, you found the webcast portion of this useful and informative. We look forward to feedback -- any feedback that you might have and we look forward to having you keep up with abreast with our progress through our news releases and periodic calls such as this, and also feel free to reach out to us, sign up for email alerts, either Investor Relations website and on social media as well and you can always contact us through Adrian Miller our VP of Investor Relations at akm@PAVmed.com. So thank you again and have a great evening.

Operator

Operator

This concludes today's teleconference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.