Earnings Labs

Lululemon Athletica Inc. (LULU)

Q1 2024 Earnings Call· Wed, Jun 5, 2024

$142.54

-3.00%

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Thank you for standing by. This is the conference operator. Welcome to the lululemon athletica inc. First Quarter 2024 Results Conference Call. As a reminder, all participants are in listen-only mode and the conference is being recorded. After the presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. [Operator Instructions] I would now like to turn the conference over to Howard Tubin, Vice President, Investor Relations for lululemon athletica. Please go ahead.

Howard Tubin

Analyst

Thank you and good afternoon. Welcome to lululemon's first quarter earnings conference call. Joining me today to talk about our results are Calvin McDonald, CEO; and Meghan Frank, CFO. Before we get started, I'd like to take this opportunity to remind you that our remarks today will include forward-looking statements reflecting management's current forecast of certain aspects of lululemon's future. These statements are based on current information, which we have assessed, but by which its nature is dynamic and subject to rapid and even abrupt changes. Actual results may differ materially from those contained in or implied by these forward-looking statements due to risks and uncertainties associated with our business, including those we have disclosed in our most recent filings with the SEC, including our annual report on Form 10-K and our quarterly reports on Form 10-Q. Any forward-looking statements that we make on this call are based on assumptions as of today, and we expressly disclaim any obligation or undertaking to update or revise any of these statements as a result of new information or future events. During this call, we will present GAAP and both non-GAAP financial measures. A reconciliation of GAAP to non-GAAP measures is included in our quarterly report on Form 10-Q and in today's earnings press release. In addition, the comparable sales metrics given on today's call are on a constant dollar basis. The press release and accompanying quarterly report on Form 10-Q are available under the Investors section of our website at www.lululemon.com. Before we begin the call, I'd like to remind our investors to visit our investor site, where you'll find a summary of our key financial and operating statistics for the first quarter as well as our quarterly infographic. Today's call is scheduled for one hour, so please limit yourself to one question at a time to give others the opportunity to have their questions addressed. And now, I'd like to turn the call over to Calvin.

Calvin McDonald

Analyst

Thank you, Howard. I'm happy to be here to discuss our quarter one results. As you've seen from our press release, our revenue growth was modestly ahead of our expectations, while EPS came in even stronger. On today's call, I'll share some highlights regarding our performance in quarter one, including my perspective on our U.S. business and what our teams have been working on. Next, I'll speak to the recent departure of our Chief Product Officer and the opportunities our new structure unlocks for us. Then I'll provide some details on our product innovations and brand activation. In addition, Meghan will review our financials, and we will close out our time today by taking your questions. So let's get started. In the first quarter, total revenue increased 10%, or 11% in constant currency. By region, we saw continued strong momentum in our international business with revenue in China Mainland up 52% and rest of the world up 30%, both in constant currency. In the Americas, revenue increased 4% in constant currency with Canada up 12% and the U.S. up 2%. By merchandise category, women's increased 10%, men's increased 15%, and accessories remains positive and up 2%, which is impressive given the exceptionally strong performance last year. Earnings per share were $2.54 versus EPS of $2.28 in quarter one last year. In addition, we repurchased nearly $300 million of stock in quarter one, an additional $230 million in the second quarter thus far, and our board recently increased our authorization by $1 billion, bringing our capacity to repurchase shares up to approximately $1.7 billion. As you can see, our business remains strong and our brand continues to resonate with guests around the world. We are engaging with them through our unique and compelling activations and brand campaigns, and we continue to…

Meghan Frank

Analyst

Thanks, Calvin. Our Q1 results exceeded our expectations, driven by above-plan performance across the key areas of our P&L. Our business remained strong in our international regions in Canada, and in the U.S., we've seen a slower start to the year in line with our expectations. As you've seen in our press release, we're maintaining our revenue guidance for the year, while increasing our EPS guidance. This reflects our optimism in our plans and strategies for 2024, many of which you just heard Calvin speak about. In addition, we continue to plan for multiple scenarios and manage our business to protect against downside. Before sharing the details of our Q1 performance and our guidance outlook, let me provide a quick update on our Mexico operations. In May, we signed an agreement with our franchise partners to acquire their lululemon Mexico operations in the 15 retail locations they currently operate. Our partner has built an incredible foundation for our brand in Mexico, and our acquisition will allow us to more efficiently continue to expand, grow our community, and enhance the guest experience. We are acquiring the business for approximately $160 million in cash, and the deal is expected to close in the next several weeks subject to customary closing conditions. From a P&L standpoint, we expect the transaction to have an immaterial impact on our financial results for the fiscal year 2024. Let me now share the details of our Q1 performance. For Q1, total net revenue rose 10% to $2.2 billion and comparable sales increased 7%. Within our regions, the results were as follows. Americas revenue increased 3% on a reported basis, or 4% in constant currency, with comparable sales flat. China Mainland revenue increased 45% on a reported basis, or 52% in constant currency, with comparable sales increasing 33%.…

Calvin McDonald

Analyst

Thanks, Meghan. In closing, I want to say I am energized by the opportunities in front of us and excited for what the future holds for lululemon. I was in China last week, and when I'm traveling in markets around the world, I see how powerfully our brand resonates across cultures and geographies. While we make some strategic adjustments in the U.S., our leadership team continues to challenge ourselves and our teams by asking how high is high. It's that mentality and passion for our brand that will enable us to navigate the near term as we build towards the long-term opportunities for lululemon that we know exist. In closing, I want to thank the senior leaders of lululemon as well as our teams in every market around the world for your unyielding focus on creating amazing products and experiences for our guests. I look forward to taking your questions now. Operator?

Operator

Operator

We will now begin the question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] Our first question today comes from Brooke Roach with Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.

Brooke Roach

Analyst

Good afternoon, and thank you for taking our question. Calvin, you spoke about making some strategic adjustments in the U.S. Can you speak to your confidence in the Lululemon brand and the growth trajectory that you see in the U.S. going forward as well as the timing and magnitude of some of those strategic adjustments that you're making? And then perhaps contextualize the traffic and conversion trends that you saw in your U.S. business as you move throughout the quarter? Thank you very much.

Calvin McDonald

Analyst

Great. Thanks, Brooke. In terms of our excitement and optimism for growth in every market, including the U.S., it remains as strong today as it was at the beginning of this year and obviously coming off of 2023, which was a very strong year for us. In the U.S., in particular, there are a number of areas of growth that we still see that have not changed. Continuing to acquire guests. We have very low unaided brand awareness, as you know, opportunities in categories across the wear occasions as we've tested and moved deeper into performance as well as into lounge and social, our accessories business and our men's. And our store fleet, which is still early in terms of opportunity, not just in expanding as well as optimizing and creating an even better environment for our product and our guests to shop. So in terms of the U.S., nothing has changed from the last few years into 2023 into the first quarter of this year. The opportunity for us when I look at the business is men's has a number of new innovative launches that are resonating and he's responding very well to. In performance with the Zeroed In and continuing the success of the changes from last year on the Pace Breaker into some of the key categories we identified, run, golf, and train, as well into some of the new franchises in the lounge category that we launched, he is responding incredibly well to that. And we saw that in our performance around the globe as well in the U.S. and we saw that in our share performance in the U.S., where we saw outsized gains in men's. In our women's business, we had some missed opportunity, really in our color palette, in particular, in some of…

Brooke Roach

Analyst

Thanks so much. I'll pass it on.

Operator

Operator

The next question is from Alex Stratton with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.

Alex Stratton

Analyst

Perfect. Thanks for taking the question. I've got one for Calvin and maybe one for Meghan. Maybe, Calvin, just bigger-picture, I feel like we rarely hear of assortment missteps in lulu's history. So kind of what changed, or maybe what do you think provokes that this year? And then bigger-picture maybe for Meghan, China, obviously a key growth area for you all. Can you talk about how the competitive landscape is different or similar? And then how you think about the revenue potential for lulu in that market over time? Thanks a lot.

Calvin McDonald

Analyst

Thanks, Alex. On -- in terms of the track record of the team, I agree, we have a very talented a team across the product organization in both design and merchandising. And this was just a quarter where the chosen color palette was more narrow than I think the consumer coming into this year was looking for. We know that the consumer environment remains dynamic with inflation, higher interest rates. So it's weighing on the mind of the consumer and we also know they will spend, but they're being selective. And I think with our color palette, it -- we had opportunity because where we had it, she responded incredibly well. Combined with the success we've seen in growing our guest base and broadening cross sizes, the teams have been chasing into that to determine the go-forward size profile across the sizes and the different styles in both performance, lounge, and social. So I'm confident that those opportunities have been identified. I'm confident when I look to the innovation and the pipeline as well as just how we bring newness to core in the back half of this year and forward that a lot of that learning has been addressed, and we were able to address it and control it.

Meghan Frank

Analyst

Yes. And thanks, Alex. From a China standpoint, we're very pleased with our business in that market. Continue to see very strong trends in Q1, so plus 52% constant currency China Mainland. And I would say from a competitive landscape, we continue to see strong business on our side. Definitely closely monitoring the environment, but we're really still early in our growth journey there, and no concerns at this point in time.

Alex Stratton

Analyst

Thanks a lot. Good luck.

Operator

Operator

The next question is from Matthew Boss with JPMorgan. Please go ahead.

Matthew Boss

Analyst

Great. Thanks. So maybe, Calvin, just higher level, or larger picture as we think about the U.S. business. I mean, do you believe anything has structurally changed if we're thinking about on a longer-term horizon? And then on the progression from here, just how best to think about progress to date that you've already made maybe within stock level, sizing and color? And then just the cadence with each of those as well as the product pipeline in the back half of the year? Just anything that you're really excited about that would support the sequential improvement as the year progresses.

Calvin McDonald

Analyst

Great. Thanks, Matt. I'll start with absolutely nothing has changed in terms of the growth potential of this brand, not just internationally across all markets, but in the U.S. As you know, 2023 was a very strong market for us. Quarter four was a very strong quarter for us in the U.S. and have identified some missed opportunities in Q1. We saw success in our men's business where we did bring newness, innovation, color, and we had less of an impact on the size, status, and very pleased with that growth as well as that growth relative to the market and the outsized gains we saw in share. In the accessories business, we know that we're cycling over the success of the Everywhere Belt Bag, which is incredible. It really validates and shows what's possible for our brand in accessories in particular in bags. And although that bag continues to perform well, not quite to the levels of last year, but the team has introduced a number of new styles of bags that the guests responded incredibly well to. We just didn't have the depth of inventory to satisfy the demand that could have offset the -- some of the headwind of the Everywhere Belt Bag success last year. That is something we can control. We know the newness is resonating and the guest is moving beyond just an Everywhere Belt Bag. And we have opportunity and the teams have been chasing into that and expect to be in a better in-stock position in the back half. The Two-Tone bag is a good example of that, sold out almost immediately. We were able to chase, bring some in, offer it as an Essentials member early access. It again sold and did incredibly well and we continue to chase into that.…

Matthew Boss

Analyst

That's great color, Calvin. Meghan, just maybe could you speak to health of current inventory? And then just drivers of markdowns in the first quarter, how best to think about markdowns in the second quarter and the back half of the year?

Meghan Frank

Analyst

Yes, sure. So inventory, we were down 15% at the end of the quarter. So that was on the lower end of the range that we provided of high-single-digit to low-double-digit decline. And we do expect the second-half inventory will grow year-over-year relatively in line with sales. I would say at this point in time, we're very pleased with the currency and composition of our inventory outside of some of the opportunity areas that Calvin mentioned. So well-positioned there from an overall perspective. In terms of markdowns, we were up 50 basis points year-over-year in Q1. We believe Q2 will be slightly above last year as well, though less than Q1, and we are still expecting essentially flat markdowns for the year. And with that, some of the opportunity areas that Calvin described in terms of color and sizing. And we are continuing to chase into as well as some other items that are working for us for the second-half of the year and we've got some innovation teed up and believe that will drive the gas towards the full-price component of our assortment and a lot markdowns for the year.

Matthew Boss

Analyst

Great. Best of luck.

Meghan Frank

Analyst

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

The next question is from Michael Binetti with Evercore. Please go ahead.

Michael Binetti

Analyst

Hey, thanks. Congrats on a nice quarter, guys. So maybe I can just continue that last question, Meghan. Could you speak a little bit to your confidence in the sustainability of the product margins in the U.S.? And then I guess, I'd be curious what you think are some of the differences driving the gap in results between Canada and the U.S., a little bit of notable difference there. And then maybe just a little help understanding the U.S. consumer dynamics. Calvin, bigger-picture, how has purchase frequency, UPT, AUR changed, if at all? Looking -- as you look across the cohorts that you acquired pre-COVID, during COVID, after COVID, are there any change in key customer behaviors or KPIs to point out?

Meghan Frank

Analyst

Thanks, Michael. So in terms of U.S. product margin, I don't see that changing over the long term. We run a highly full-price business. We have no plans to change our strategy there. So I would view some of the current challenges with assortment and slightly higher markdowns as temporary. And then from a Canada to U.S. perspective, the opportunity areas that Calvin outlined in terms of color, sizing were more prominent drivers last year in the U.S. as well as the Everywhere Belt Bag was a more popular item in the U.S. as well. And so that's driving the difference in terms of trend.

Calvin McDonald

Analyst

And with the consumer, I sort of mentioned that obviously, we're monitoring the environment and it remains dynamic. But we do know that the guest is being more selective, but will spend where they choose. So we believe our product is differentiated in the marketplace, stands out in terms of quality as well as the versatility, which I think is a key element of the product of how it can be worn multiple wear occasions and use cases across either performance activities and/or through social and lounge, which these are unique positions. And the missed opportunity is really what that we did not provide her in terms of the assortment she was looking for in certain areas. Obviously, where we did, she responded incredibly well and he continued to. When I look at the overall mix, nothing really to call out. UPT and AUR, no change, no fundamental shifts and changes there. Really, traffic was positive, as I mentioned. In the quarter, it was conversion that we just saw an opportunity on with guests coming in and either not acquiring as much and/or as they didn't necessarily see the color in that product. But we believe the loyalty and the engagement with our guests over multiple years, which we've continued. And coming off of Q4, this is a very short transition as we course-correct and adjust some of these product opportunities and the teams have been in that work. So nothing that I'm concerned about long term in terms of our ability. We have a very sticky guest. We have a brand that there's a lot of love for and differentiated product. And we know where the opportunity is, and the teams have been chasing that for the back half of this year. So I'm not -- have not seen anything and I'm not concerned with any fundamental shifts in the guest or the guest loyalty or attention with this brand.

Michael Binetti

Analyst

Thank you very much, guys.

Operator

Operator

The next question is from Ike Boruchow with Wells Fargo. Please go ahead.

Ike Boruchow

Analyst

Hey, everyone. A quick question, let's circle back to Matt's question about the markdown. So I just want to make sure I understand, Meghan. So the markdown you guided in three months ago for Q1 was, I believe, flat, and it came in down 50 bps. So I'm kind of curious, number one, what exactly transpired in the quarter kind of drive that? Obviously, you may beat the gross margin line, but that line item, what exactly happened? And then you're maintaining the full year at flat, but you're coming off the Q1 was down and then you're saying Q2 will be down again. So it just feels like now there's a back half like needed ramp-up in markdown versus before there wasn't. So I guess, I'm just trying to understand like the progress of the full-year for the gross margin line as well.

Meghan Frank

Analyst

Yes. Hi, Ike. So in terms of markdowns for the first quarter. So I would say the challenges we saw with assortment and color and sizing, and in addition to that, the environment, we did see gaps gravitate more towards the markdown proportion of our assortment. So we saw 50 basis points increase. We believe Q2 will be still up to last year, but lower than -- a lower increase than Q1. Q1 is a relatively small portion of our markdowns for the year. So when we think about the full year, we are maintaining that essentially flat markdown rate for the full year, but we would see some opportunity in the second-half just given some of the actions we're taking to correct those pieces of the assortment in terms of the color sizing, and then also some exciting innovation that Calvin spoke to as well as other portions of the assortment that we're chasing into that are working for us today. So feel well-positioned headed into the second-half of the year.

Ike Boruchow

Analyst

Okay. So it's mainly a function of Q1. This isn't that impactful for the year on the markdown rate?

Meghan Frank

Analyst

Yes.

Ike Boruchow

Analyst

Okay. Got it. Okay. Thanks a lot. Appreciate it.

Operator

Operator

The next question is from Paul Lejuez with Citi. Please go ahead.

Paul Lejuez

Analyst

Hey, thanks, guys. You reiterated your sales guidance for the year, but curious if you've changed your outlook in any of the regions versus how you were thinking at the beginning of the year? And you also talked about there not being any structural differences in the U.S. market, but curious how you'd characterize the competitive landscape near term in 1Q relative to what you saw in the second-half of '23? Any changes in promotional cadence amongst competitors out there that you're paying more attention to? Thanks.

Meghan Frank

Analyst

Thanks, Paul. I would say from a regional and country level. A little bit of feedback. [Technical Difficulty] Sorry about that. So from a regional and country-specific perspective, we have not changed our outlook materially for the balance of the year. I would say the slight Q1 overperformance would have come from international region and primarily China.

Calvin McDonald

Analyst

Yes, Paul. In terms of the competitive landscape, the second part I'll address first, have not seen anything dramatically different from a promotional intensity perspective. There remains competitors in this space that use promo as a means to drive demand for their product. We've seen that increase over the last few years, but I wouldn't say in this quarter, it's either gone deeper or pulled back. It's sort of the same, which I would say is a heightened level from a few years ago, but nothing dramatic in the quarter. And competition in our space has always been there and been intense, and we've always been able to continue to perform and compete. And nothing has shifted from quarter four and 2023, where we saw our performance in the U.S. be very strong into Q1. And I really therefore point to the missed opportunities that we had versus it being a competitive impact on our business. Our men's business, and there are competitors in the men's space performed very well where we saw the outsized share gains because of the product, the innovation, the newness and the color palette was there. It resonated and very pleased with the success momentum that has continued in that business. I shared the accessories, and the excitement behind the newness, but lack of depth to satisfy the demand. And the mis opportunity in women's, which is really, we control that. It's within our control and we've been chasing it. So competition has always been there. I haven't seen anything dramatically shift and change in the quarter and definitely not from Q4 to Q1 where we had a very strong quarter. And therefore, I really do point to missed opportunities that we that we have.

Operator

Operator

The next question is from Sharon Zackfia with William Blair. Please go ahead.

Sharon Zackfia

Analyst

Hi, good afternoon. I guess I'm curious if you've seen U.S. trends kind of stabilize and become more predictable? And within the women's business, it wasn't clear to me whether you think you lost share within the quarter in the U.S. or whether maybe the whole market was a bit softer for the segment.

Meghan Frank

Analyst

Thanks, Sharon. I would say in terms of U.S. performance, it did come in as we expected in Q1. And so I would say to that from that standpoint, it was in line with our expectations.

Calvin McDonald

Analyst

And in terms of share, in Q1, we did gain market share in both the U.S. adult apparel industry as well as the U.S. adult active wear industry. We saw outsized gains in men's where we significantly outperformed the overall market. In women's, we were flattish based on the missed opportunities that I identified.

Operator

Operator

The next question is from Dana Telsey with Telsey Advisory Group. Please go ahead.

Dana Telsey

Analyst

Hi, good afternoon, everyone. Calvin and Meghan, as you think about store productivity and levels of new stores in North America, is that changing at all from how you thought about it before? And how are new stores opening? And then lastly, as you think about the men's business, which seems to be growing very strongly, any difference in terms of what you're seeing overseas versus in North America for the men's business? Thank you.

Meghan Frank

Analyst

Thanks, Dana. I would say in terms of new store openings, we continue to see opportunity and runway across all of our geographies. In the U.S. specifically, we see sales -- very productive sales per square foot above our average, which is around $1,600 per square foot. We tend to look at new stores as ramping into their full mature volume over a two- to four-year period. I would say we're continuing to see that, and we see ample runway in both the U.S. as well as importantly, our international region.

Calvin McDonald

Analyst

Hi, Dana. I'll chat with Matt. Just I'll just add in terms of the optimization of our doors around the world, including in the U.S., very excited with the results we see, the percentage of the portfolio that we still have available to be optimized, and obviously the product innovative pipeline that is creating opportunities for these additional categories within that space. And that's markets from APAC to Australia into the U.S. So very excited about how we will continue to invest, optimize, and showcase our product innovation in an even a stronger fashion. In terms of men's, men's globally is performing very strong. Interestingly, it took us a number of years to get to our penetration of the men's business in North America, and we're seeing the international markets get there a lot quicker. So it really earlier on, lululemon is a dual-gender brand in these markets and men are responding to the newness in the product and the innovation globally. In similar fashion, when we see the strength of the ABC, we see the strength of our performance franchises. Interestingly, when we see the success of the new launches, the Zeroed In franchise or the expansion of Pace Breaker are resonating around the globe in all of our markets. So excited to see the growth in men's globally as well as in the U.S.

Dana Telsey

Analyst

Thank you.

Howard Tubin

Analyst

Operator, we'll take one more question.

Operator

Operator

And that question is from John Kernan with TD Cowen. Please go ahead.

John Kernan

Analyst

Excellent. Thanks for squeezing me in. Congrats on a nice quarter. Calvin, I think I heard you say international potential to reach 50% of sales. How does the complexion of that look on an omnichannel basis and geography basis?

Calvin McDonald

Analyst

I think from a geography perspective, we haven't broken it out. Obviously, Mainland China, which continues to perform well for us. And we're still early in terms of the potential when we look at the number of doors we have, the potential of store locations, the success of our business online, unaided awareness internationally being as low as it is in every market we're in. So really the growth possibility is on stores. Digital, where we have a different degree of penetration of our digital channel, but I think all markets can be hitting 40%-plus on our digital channel in the years to come as a support and driver of that as we build out our store network and opportunity. The addition of new markets, but we're in the bulk of the right markets that are going to drive fundamentally the majority of that growth across EMEA, APAC, and Mainland China. And we are just so early in that growth that when I look at the performance and the adoption and the reception of the brand, where we are in unaided awareness, where we are in store penetration and growth and that potential, and then look at some competitive other brands and where their ratio is, that's where our aspiration is and see that opportunity. Obviously, not in the current Power of Three times two where, our goal is to quadruple our business again on top of quadrupling it. But there is nothing systemic that's preventing the brand from achieving a 50% international, 50% North America penetration in the future.

John Kernan

Analyst

That's outstanding. I guess, how should we think about the omnichannel business in the Americas? You've made some big investments in co-located stores, you're still growing square footage in Canada and United States. I guess, how should we think about -- there's a DTC platform with tremendous scale, e-commerce with tremendous scale. How do we think about the balance of stores and e-commerce going forward in North America?

Meghan Frank

Analyst

Yes. So we haven't put a fine point on stores versus e-comm. What we shared in our current five-year plan is we expected e-comm to grow slightly ahead of our 15% CAGR and stores slightly below. And but we are remaining agile and going to where the guest wants to shop with us. As you mentioned, we've invested in omnichannel capabilities and really look at it as a seamless experience across both. And so see slightly more opportunity in e-commerce over the longer term. And -- but we'll remain agile in how we approach the business.

John Kernan

Analyst

That's great. Thank you.

Meghan Frank

Analyst

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

That's all the time we have for questions today. Thank you for joining the call and have a nice day.