Earnings Labs

Lululemon Athletica Inc. (LULU)

Q4 2025 Earnings Call· Tue, Mar 17, 2026

$142.54

-3.00%

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Thank you for standing by. This is the conference operator. Welcome to the lululemon athletica inc. Fourth Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] And the conference is being recorded. [Operator Instructions] I would now like to turn the conference over to Howard Tubin, Vice President, Investor Relations for lululemon athletica. Please go ahead.

Howard Tubin

Analyst

Thank you, and good afternoon. Welcome to lululemon's Fourth Quarter Earnings Conference Call. Joining me today are Meghan Frank, interim Co-CEO and CFO; and Andre Maestrini, interim Co-CEO, President and Chief Commercial Officer. Before we get started, I'd like to take this opportunity to remind you that our remarks today will include forward-looking statements reflecting management's current forecast of certain aspects of lululemon's future. These statements are based on current information, which we have assessed, but by which its nature is dynamic and subject to rapid and even abrupt changes. Actual results may differ materially from those contained in or implied by these forward-looking statements due to risks and uncertainties associated with our business, including those we have disclosed in our most recent filings with the SEC, including our annual report on Form 10-K and our quarterly reports on Form 10-Q. Any forward-looking statements that we make on this call are based on assumptions as of today, and we expressly disclaim any obligation or undertaking to update or revise any of these statements as a result of new information or future events. During this call, we will present both GAAP and non-GAAP financial measures. A reconciliation of GAAP to non-GAAP measures is included in our annual report on Form 10-K and in today's earnings press release. In addition, the comparable sales metrics given on today's call are on a constant dollar basis. The press release and accompanying annual report on Form 10-K are available under the Investors section of our website at www.lululemon.com. On today's call, Meghan will share an update on the action plan we laid out for you on our last earnings call. Andre will discuss our regional performance. Meghan will return to review our financials and guidance outlook, and then the team will be happy to take your questions. Before I turn the call over to Meghan, I'd like to remind investors to visit our investor site where you'll find a summary of our key financial and operating statistics for the fourth quarter as well as our quarterly infographic. Also, please note that the purpose of today's call is to discuss lululemon's 2025 financial results and 2026 outlook, and we ask that you keep your questions focused on our performance.

Meghan Frank

Analyst

Thanks, Howard. I'm glad to be here today to discuss our Q4 results, our outlook for 2026, and how we are executing our action plan to strengthen our brand, reaccelerate growth and create value for shareholders. Andre and I are working side-by-side with the senior leaders across our organization to drive our strategies forward to improve the U.S. business while also maintaining our international momentum and are making progress to deliver the performance we know is possible in all our regions. We have a healthy and loyal customer base that remains engaged and looking to us for great product and experiences. We have strong teams who are motivated and excited to bring our new innovations and product assortments to our guests. And we are working across the company to refine and advance our initiatives across product creation, product activation and enterprise enablement, which Andre and I will speak more about during our call today. We recognize there is more work to be done, and we have been course-correcting on a number of fronts, but we are encouraged by the guest response to our recent new product drops and activations. I'm grateful to our teams across the entire organization who remain committed to delivering products and experiences our guests love. Together, we are taking the right steps that will allow us to realize the full potential of lululemon. Before I speak to our action plan, I would like to call attention to today's announcement welcoming Chip Bergh to our Board of Directors. As you likely know, Chip Bergh is the former longtime President and CEO of the iconic brand, Levi Strauss. He's a seasoned public company executive who brings deep retail and brand expertise, and he has extensive experience guiding successful transformations and driving value creation at global category-defining companies. His…

Andre Maestrini

Analyst

Thank you, Meghan. Like Meghan, I'm pleased to be here with you all. In my role overseeing our selling channels across all regions, I have the opportunity to spend considerable time in our stores, meeting with our leaders and educators and hearing from our guests. So I'm excited to share the highlights from our markets across the globe. Touching first on North America. We are actively making the changes needed to increase newness, enhance the guest experience in stores and online and improve our performance. We are building from a position of strength as we remain the #1 brand for women's activewear in the U.S. New guest acquisition, retention, engagement and key brand relevance metrics all remained solid in 2025. So let me speak to 3 of the strategies we are implementing to unlock growth in the region. First, as Meghan mentioned, we are focused on the growth of our full-price business. Looking at 2026, a primary goal in the North America is returning the business to healthier levels of full-price sales after seeing a higher markdown penetration in 2025. We are already seeing better full-price sell-through in Q1 relative to Q4, and we are targeting further improvement as we move through the year, driven by increased product newness, innovation and operating discipline. Second, we're enhancing the guest experience, both in-store and online. We recognize the importance of our store and e-commerce sites as guest touch points, and we are evolving the experience to better reflect the premium positioning of lululemon brand. In stores, our localization and curation enhancements continue. Our new design playbook features an elevated presentation with less density of product to better showcase our new styles and innovations, and to make the stores easier for guests to navigate and shop. We are also sharpening our focus on…

Meghan Frank

Analyst

Thanks, Andre. I'll now turn to our Q4 financial review and guidance outlook. For Q4, total net revenue rose 1% to $3.6 billion. Excluding the 53rd week in Q4 of 2024, net revenue rose 6% or 4% on a constant currency basis and comparable sales increased 2%. Within our regions and channels, excluding the 53rd week and in constant currency, results were as follows: North America revenue was flat with comparable sales down 2%. By country, revenue increased 3% in Canada and was down 1% in the U.S. In China Mainland, revenue increased 28% with comparable sales increasing 26%. Results were stronger than anticipated despite 2 discrete calendar shifts, which negatively impacted Q4, including earlier 11/11 events on our third-party e-commerce platform and the shift of Chinese New Year into Q1. Guests responded well to our product assortment with particular strength in outerwear and lounge. And in the Rest of World, revenue grew by 12% and comparable sales increased by 5%. In our store channel, sales were down 1%. We ended the quarter with a total of 811 stores globally. Square footage increased 11% versus last year driven by the addition of 44 net new lululemon stores since Q4 of 2024. During the quarter, we opened 15 net new stores and completed 7 optimizations. In our digital channel, revenues increased 9% and contributed $1.9 billion of top line. And by category, men's revenue increased 3% versus last year, women's increased 7%, and accessories and others grew 4%. Gross profit for the fourth quarter was $2 billion or 54.9% of net revenue compared to 60.4% in Q4 2024. Our gross margin decreased 550 basis points relative to last year and was driven primarily by the following: a 560 basis point decline in overall product margin, driven predominantly by tariff impact and…

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] The first question comes from Brooke Roach with Goldman Sachs.

Brooke Roach

Analyst

When do you think the product assortment will be appropriate to deliver a return to inflection in North America growth? And how are you thinking about the headwind from the removal of markdowns throughout the year and the introduction of that new full-price selling product throughout the year?

Meghan Frank

Analyst

Thanks, Brooke. So as we mentioned, we are focused on reaccelerating the full-price health of our business. So in Q1, we will see a meaningful inflection relative to Q4. We expect in Q2 that we believe it would be approximately flat in full-price trend in North America and then flipping positive in the second half of the year. So that's how the year progresses. In terms of markdowns, we are lowering that penetration. So as we mentioned, we were up 130 basis points in Q4 and up 60 in the year in 2025. For 2026, we're expecting a modest improvement in markdowns for the full year, predominantly driven through the second half, and we are expecting just a modest increase in Q1.

Brooke Roach

Analyst

And just to clarify, are you seeing any improvement in your base business as you've put these new products into the assortment 1Q to date? Or is the improvement largely driven by the new product launches?

Meghan Frank

Analyst

We're definitely seeing improvement to date. So we've seen a meaningful inflection in terms of full price coming out of Q4 and into Q1. And it will take us some time to inflect and we think it will be sequential throughout the year, flipping positive as I mentioned in the second half, but seeing some really great green shoots. I mentioned some of these in terms of the new innovations. We launched Unrestricted Power, ThermoZen and ShowZero, which will be commercialized later this year. We also had an exciting run capsule that launched earlier this month. So we're building on that strength as we move throughout the quarter. It's still early, but definitely seeing some positive indicators. Also would point to, we did see employee sales pick up as well over the last few weeks as we introduced new product.

Operator

Operator

The next question comes from Lorraine Hutchinson with Bank of America.

Lorraine Maikis

Analyst · Bank of America.

As you work to inflect the North America sales trajectory to positive, are you doing any reassessing of your marketing, either dollars spent or types of marketing outreach to try to really bring in a new customer and reignite your existing? Or is it more status quo with the activation in grassroots styles?

Meghan Frank

Analyst · Bank of America.

Thanks, Lorraine. I'd share -- I do think we're looking at our marketing strategy. So really focusing on engaging the guests, ensuring they're -- that newness is front and center and visible. I think you'll see us shift more into utilizing brand-appropriate influencers and ambassadors as we move throughout the year. We are really focused on our activations and engaging with our guests through those means. So I would say you saw some evidence of that in Q1 in terms of us being very active in, I would say, our activity activations. So with the BNP Paribas Open in Indian Wells with tennis, Milan Olympics. So really excited about the assortment that we showcased there and then also Studio Yet in L.A. We also had a Chinese New Year activation this year -- this quarter.

Operator

Operator

The next question comes from Adrienne Yih with Barclays.

Adrienne Yih-Tennant

Analyst · Barclays.

Great. A couple of questions. Andre, on the 35% newness, can you talk about kind of whether that is obviously styles, which you mentioned or color choice and SKUs? And what products are you sunsetting to make room for the newness? And then along those same lines, how does the reporting structure of who makes final decisions for quantity, make, what to chase, et cetera, within the merchandising organization? I know Elizabeth Binder reports into you, but just trying to figure out how this -- the system is working in terms of that. And then my final question is, how much of the CapEx is AI tech-driven, like the tech stack to support AI? And how do you plan to use that and incorporate that into the business?

Meghan Frank

Analyst · Barclays.

Thanks, Adrienne. So we are moving our newness penetration from 23% in 2025 to 35% in '26. That is, I would say, new product never seen by the guest is how I'd frame that. So it's not just new colorways on existing products. It's truly a new product. So I would say in terms of sunsetting, we do have some SKU reduction as part of just being more pointed in our assortment and making that newness also more visible in our store and e-commerce expression. So that is a process we're going through as we assort the line. Jonathan Cheung, who's our Creative Director; as well as Liz Binder, our Chief Merchant, both report into me, and we've been leaning in together as we make these shifts. And then in terms of CapEx, we do have some investments in the AI space, shoring up our data and baseline so that we can move off of that. Really, I would say, our AI initiatives are focused on guest-facing, also enhancing our go-to-market calendar and supporting that speed aspect that we've discussed. So I would say it's an exciting and important part of how we're going after that enterprise enablement strategy.

Operator

Operator

The next question comes from Laurent Vasilescu with BNP Paribas.

Laurent Vasilescu

Analyst · BNP Paribas.

Meghan, it was very helpful in terms of understanding the newness of 35%. But for the audience, the North American full-price realization, can you maybe just unpack a little bit better in terms of -- like I think you mentioned 1Q is better than 4Q. But in terms of percentages, where is it now versus a couple of years ago? And where do you want that to go back for 2026?

Meghan Frank

Analyst · BNP Paribas.

Yes. Thanks, Laurent. Yes. So if we look at 2025, we did have a higher markdown penetration than we would have liked. So it's illustrated by a 130 basis point increase in markdowns in Q4 and then 60 basis points for the year. We haven't broken out the penetrations in '26, but I would share, we expect to see a meaningful improvement in Q1. We're already starting to see that. But we are shifting from the lowest waterline in Q4. So we did have 130 basis points higher markdowns. So that points to having the most pressure on full price. So the sequential improvement is meaningful, but it will still underindex relative to our total top line. We do anticipate it will flip flat -- around flat in the second quarter and then the second half of the year would flip positive. We're really helping to enable this both through the newness curation as well as SKU reduction, and then the way we've positioned inventory for the year. So we have positioned units flat to slightly down. So really looking to read the trends on newness and chase where that's possible. As we've mentioned before, we have developed some capabilities -- enhanced capabilities in terms of our product team's ability to chase into what's working. So we believe this sets us up well for returning to healthy full-price sales penetration for the year and building off of that for the long term and in '26 as the opportunity presents itself.

Laurent Vasilescu

Analyst · BNP Paribas.

Very helpful. And then I think you mentioned that square footage should grow low double digits. Just curious, whenever we find out about the new CEO. And if that individual wants to take a fresh look at that commitment. Can you maybe just unpack that a little bit more for the audience? How much of that is committed to for 2026? And then just a quick question here on marketing. I think in your 10-K, it's 5.7% of sales. Where should that go for 2026?

Andre Maestrini

Analyst · BNP Paribas.

Yes. On your question, Laurent, about stores, we are taking a disciplined approach to capital spending and looking at our real estate project on a case-by-case basis. We continue to see good returns from new store openings and store expansions as these strategies contribute really to improve the shopping experience. So for 2025 to give you a number, NSOs are returning at above 100% ROI across both North America and the international markets. So representing a payback period of less than a year. So we feel confident with that. And also the strategy of optimization of existing doors in key influential cities to bigger format with proven quality traffic is solid. The productivity of our top larger stores is higher than the average of our fleet that is one of the best in the industry with sales per square foot over $1,400. So globally, to be precise, in '26, our plan calls for approximately 40 to 45 net new openings, which yields square footage growth to the low double digits. So with NAM, approximately 15 openings and international in between 25 to 30 openings with the majority in Mainland China. And for the marketing spending?

Meghan Frank

Analyst · BNP Paribas.

Yes. And I'd just add, Laurent, from a store perspective, it's really a store-by-store look that the team is doing, being really mindful of where we're opening, making sure it's relevant for the guest and we've got the right positioning in each market. As Andre just mentioned, it's 15 stores in North America, the majority of which would be in Mexico. So we have just a small handful of new store openings and we are watching them closely. We would be largely committed through '26 to our square footage expansion plans, but the team feels really confident in them. I'd say from a marketing perspective, we are -- our guidance assumes we're relatively flat from a rate of sales perspective in terms of marketing spend. I think what you'll see is we're shifting the composition of that spend a bit more towards these impactful guest activations we discussed as well as utilizing brand-appropriate influencers and ambassadors as we move throughout this year. So I would say a little bit of a shift in strategy on the spend, same waterline, and we'll continue to monitor to the extent that it's working for us, and we'll continue to push into it. Thanks.

Operator

Operator

The next question comes from Matthew Boss with JPMorgan.

Matthew Boss

Analyst · JPMorgan.

So Meghan, could you maybe speak to the bridge from 4% underlying revenue growth in the fourth quarter to the 1% to 3% in the first quarter and 2% to 4% for the year? Meaning maybe just if you could elaborate on the balance between the improvement in full-price selling that you're citing relative to what's offsetting or constraining revenue growth as we think about the course of the year.

Meghan Frank

Analyst · JPMorgan.

Yes, absolutely. So Q4, we're up 6%, excluding the 53rd week. And we did guide to 1% to 3% for Q1 and then 2% to 4% for the full year. I would say it's really the ramp of full price. So we had, I would say, the lowest waterline, as I mentioned in Q4, with markdown overpenetrating. We had 130 basis points of pressure in the markdown line in Q4. So we are improving that in Q1, but it will be still negative in Q1, flipping flat in Q2 and then accelerating in the second half of the year as we continue to build into it and then lap, I would say, the markdown performance that we had in the second half of '26.

Matthew Boss

Analyst · JPMorgan.

Great. And then, Meghan, just on the more than 200 basis points of operating margin contraction this year, how much of the decline do you see tied to more transitory items? And what do you see as the revenue growth necessary to see operating margins return to expansion multiyear?

Meghan Frank

Analyst · JPMorgan.

Yes. So we guided to 250 basis points decline. I would say the majority of that, when you step back from it, is add-backs of incentive comp and labor that we reduced in '25 and then also the proxy contest expenses. That's the majority of it as you step back. Obviously, we've got some headwinds and tariffs, but we're largely offsetting the year-over-year within the year. I do see this as the low waterline that we'll continue to build upon as we transition into '27. So really looking at getting back to that healthy full-price baseline. We're obviously having a little pressure on the fixed components of our P&L based on that revenue waterline of 2% to 4%. We haven't put a fine point on the leverage aspect. I think it will depend on the trajectory of the business, and then there are some decisions that we can make in terms of investment levels. So we'll definitely share more on that, but definitely expect it to improve from here.

Operator

Operator

The next question comes from Paul Lejuez with Citi Research.

Paul Lejuez

Analyst · Citi Research.

Lots of focus on the North America full-price improvement, but I'm just curious if we should read that as you guys being happy with full-price selling in the Rest of World and China. Maybe you can talk about how those regions compare from a full-price penetration perspective to the Americas. And then also maybe match that with what sort of level of newness do you see in those regions? Have the percentages also gone down? And are they also supposed to go back up in '26? Or has it been more constant there?

Meghan Frank

Analyst · Citi Research.

Thanks, Paul. I would say we have not seen the headwind we've seen in North America in international regions in terms of full price. So still happy with the levels we're seeing there. That said, we do believe that the steps we're taking in our action plan in terms of product creation and activation will benefit all regions. But I would say we're still pleased with the trends there. I'll pass it to Andre just to add some more color on what we're seeing in the regions.

Andre Maestrini

Analyst · Citi Research.

Yes, absolutely. I think that the model that has been developed to grow and expand in international is working because it generates full attention on the full price. And let me call out the different layers, which is, first, a brand-first approach, we are building the premium position of lululemon in activewear market in those key regions. Second, a diversified portfolio of product across the different activities where we want to lead in. Then this obsession of full price and minimal discounting and markdown. And also an elevated presentation in our stores and the guest experience across not only the key doors but also our online experience. And we are staying true to our community grassroot approach. We also keep standout events that generate organic traffic like the Summer Sweat Games, for example, in China. And that's why we are importing as a playbook to do Studio Yet that Meghan, you mentioned or our participation in the open of Indian Wells on new categories that we want to expand. So yes, as said, everything we are working on developing new styles and newness at the global level will also benefit all our markets to keep driving the focus and engaging the guest on full-price realization.

Operator

Operator

The next question comes from Michael Binetti with Evercore.

Michael Binetti

Analyst · Evercore.

Could you speak a little bit to the Canada slower sales outlook in first quarter? Is that something you're seeing today, Meghan? Maybe just a few thoughts there. That market has been trending better than the U.S. for a little bit. I'm just curious what you're seeing in that market. And then maybe you could just help us -- you're shortening the time line on design from go-to-market. I think you diagnosed that as a pretty long time frame, 18 months plus. It's been a big focus for you. Could you just give us an update on what you're seeing there and some of the early progress or opportunities to shorten the lead times and what you think maybe that could go to as you look to kind of speed up the go-to-market process here?

Meghan Frank

Analyst · Evercore.

Yes. Thanks, Michael. So in terms of Canada, we're expecting -- we are inflecting full price across the North America region. The Canadian consumer has been a little bit more sensitive to markdowns. So we're seeing a little bit more of a pronounced impact there, I'd say. So that's what's driving that differential, but expect still the same opportunities in terms of assortment shift and focus on guests with our activations and think we'll reset to a better waterline. And then in terms of the go-to-market calendar, so we are going from about 18 to 24 months, we're expecting we could go to closer to 12 to 14 months over time. Really focused on tools, process and systems and leaning into automation, including in the AI space to lean into that calendar. We did mention that we have a new Head of Technology who's got an AI focus. We're excited about him joining the team and the things that we can unlock in that space. And there's -- I would say, a lot of energy in the business around this reduction and simplification of our process.

Michael Binetti

Analyst · Evercore.

Okay. And maybe if I can ask one follow-up. I think as I look back at last year, if I look at the first quarter, you mentioned that traffic was a little weaker than you'd liked in the quarter and the high-value guest was weak as well. You kind of gave us that breakout. Is that -- are you seeing better traction with the high-value guests as you start to flow the newness in and you start to get some confidence in the full-price selling as you at least start to improve sequentially from the fourth quarter here?

Meghan Frank

Analyst · Evercore.

Yes. I'd say it's early in the quarter. I'd like a little more time just to understand what's going on with the high-value guests. But I would say we're seeing, as I mentioned, great green shoots on some of the new product launches. And I would expect that extends to that guest as well. So we'll share more on what we're seeing as it progresses.

Operator

Operator

The next question comes from Dana Telsey with Telsey Group.

Dana Telsey

Analyst · Telsey Group.

Nice to see the progress. As you think about the performance apparel market, and just the activewear market, did you grow share this quarter? Did it stay the same? What do you see in the growth of premium athletic and in performance apparel? And then with the early results, positive results to the new assortments coming in, is it bottoms? Is it tops? And what are you learning from that as you develop new products, but for the next time line for the balance of the year?

Meghan Frank

Analyst · Telsey Group.

Thanks, Dana. In terms of market share, so we maintained share in the total apparel market, and we lost about less than 1 point in activewear. So that's where we stand on that. As Andre mentioned, we maintained our position as the #1 women's activewear brand in the U.S. In terms of what's trending for category, tops and bottoms, we're seeing, I would say, some nice performance across both. The Unrestricted Power innovation, I mentioned we did in women's tights and men's shorts as well as a top, seeing some nice performance there. ThermoZen also was an outerwear innovation that we're excited about as well. We did also see some great performance out of a couple of bottoms that Andre mentioned, so EasyFive and then Groove Wide-Leg. And then we had a run capsule, which I would say encompass both tops and bottoms. So I would say it's both. And that had a lot of, I would say, energy around it in terms of fun and excitement in that run capsule. I think the team is really energized on building on the learnings in terms of what's working continuing to chase into as well as looking at how it informs our creative direction for upcoming seasons.

Operator

Operator

The last question comes from Ike Boruchow with Wells Fargo.

Irwin Boruchow

Analyst

Meghan, can you just comment on the inventory ending in 4Q? How comfortable are you with that? I know the markdown is still expected to be up a little bit, but maybe just some more anecdotes there. And then what's your expectation for inventory as you move into 2Q and kind of the rest of the year?

Meghan Frank

Analyst

Great. Yes, I would say we're pleased with both the level and composition headed out of Q4. We guided to unit increase in the high single digits, and we came in up 6%, so cleaner than we expected. We did focus on cleaning out seasonal inventory and feel we're headed into '26 with an assortment that's more reflective of our go-forward strategy. In terms of how we're managing inventory in '26, I would say, throughout the year, we'd expect to see units approximately flat to slightly down. That would hold true for the end of Q1 as well. So that is part of how we're supporting driving that full-price inflection in our business and the return to a healthier baseline in terms of penetration.

Operator

Operator

That's all the time we have for questions today. Thank you for joining the call, and have a nice day.