Earnings Labs

LSB Industries, Inc. (LXU)

Q1 2015 Earnings Call· Fri, May 8, 2015

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Greetings, and welcome to the LSB Industries First Quarter 2015 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in listen-only mode. A question-and-answer session will follow the formal presentation. [Operator Instructions]. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Carol Oden. Please go ahead.

Carol Oden

Analyst

Thank you. Good morning and welcome to the LSB Industries first quarter 2015 conference call. Today, LSB’s management participants are Barry Golsen, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Tony Shelby, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Jack Golsen, LSB’s Executive Chairman and Mark Behrman, LSB’s Senior Vice President of Corporate Development and designated successor to Tony Shelby as CFO, will also join the Q&A session after the prepared comments. This conference call is being broadcast live over the Internet and is also being recorded. An archive of the webcast will be available shortly after the call on our website at www.lsbindustries.com. After comments by management, a question-and-answer session will be held. Instructions for asking questions will be provided at that time. And now, I will turn the call over to Mr. Barry Golsen. Please turn to page three of the presentation.

Barry Golsen

Analyst · Avondale Partners. Please proceed with your question

Good morning. Thank you for joining our conference call today. Let me start off by discussing some first quarter highlights. We are pleased to report to you that our first quarter results showed solid year-over-year improvements, excluding the benefit of insurance recoveries in the first quarter of 2014. This primarily reflects the progress we’re making toward two of our key initiative and overall improvement on the on-stream rates at our chemical facilities and particularly significant improvement at our Pryor facility. Later, Tony will go into more details on these. Sales grew 8.6% for the quarter compared to the first quarter of 2014. Adjusted operating income increased 16.3 million to 14.2 million and adjusted EPS increased $0.54 to $0.28 per share. This reflects the reliability initiatives we’ve been implementing over the past two months at our chemical facilities that are resulting in increased overall production with Pryor leading the way. Pryor’s on-stream rate and ammonia production volume increased for the quarter to 92% and to approximately 52,000 tons respectively versus 39% and 21,000 tons in the first quarter of 2014. First quarter sales and bookings for our Climate Control business was strong growing 8% and 5% respectively compared to the prior year period despite the previously disclosed exploration of our sales agreement with Carrier for heat pumps in the second quarter of 2014. Excluding Carrier heat pump business during the first quarter of 2014, Q1 2015 sales and booking increased 20% and 18% respectively. We expect to continue to capitalize on the strengthening demand environment which given the operating leverage inherent in our Climate Control business should lead to margin expansion. Turning to page four, I’d like to discuss the market outlook for our chemical business. Focusing on the general outlook for the agricultural markets we serve, indicators for our agricultural…

Tony Shelby

Analyst · Avondale Partners. Please proceed with your question

Thanks, Barry. As indicated, our first quarter results reflect significant improvement when compared to first quarter last year as adjusted. As previously disclosed the first quarter 2014 includes the benefit of $28 million of insurance recoveries. During this review, I will discuss 2014 results as reported and as adjusted to exclude the benefit of insurance recovers in the 2014 first quarter and the highlight to quarter-over-quarter improvement. Please turn to page six of the presentation for the first quarter 2015 results compared to 2014. Net sales increased 8.6% of $15 million primarily driven by increase in chemical sales of $11.6 million and an increase in Climate Control $4.9 million. Operating income was 14.2 million compared to an adjusted operated loss of 2.1 million, an increase of 16.3 million reflecting the improved results of our chemical business. EBITDA was 23.6 million compared to adjusted EBITDA of 6.7 million, an increase of 16.3 million, again reflecting the significant improvement in our chemical business. Included in SG&A for both quarters where advisor fees related to certain shareholder proposals in the amount of 1.7 million at 2015 and 14.2 million in 2014. Earnings per share $0.28 per diluted common share for the quarter compared to approximate loss of $0.26 as adjusted for 2014. Turning to page seven, the chemical business operating income for 2015 versus 2014 as adjusted, increased to $16 million. The increase in operating income includes certain favorable market conditions including sales price increases for ammonia and Ag rate ammonium nitrate, offset by lower UAN process directly related to imports will be in China which tends to pull down ammonium nitrate and UAN prices. Higher costs of El Dorado facility for purchased ammonia and approximately 2.4 million negative effect lower net prices received for natural gas sales from a working interest in…

Barry Golsen

Analyst · Avondale Partners. Please proceed with your question

Thanks, Tony. Page 12, updates and status of each of our chemical facilities; in a nutshell, all facilities are performing as expected. Cherokee and Pryor are currently operating at rates of approximately 500 tons and slightly over 650 tons per day of ammonia respectively. Cherokee does not have a turnaround plan this year, as its move to a two year major turnaround schedule and Pryor currently has a turnaround scheduled for July. El Dorado is producing at expected rates, however, it is producing less industrial grade ammonium nitrate as a result of the lower demand for mining products. The Baytown operation is performing at targeted production levels, and by the way recently celebrated its 10th year with no loss time injuries at that site. Page 13 details the status of the El Dorado ammonia plant expansion project which will provide ammonia for onsite upgraded products at a significant cost savings and have the capacity to product additional ammonia for sale. The engineering effort is now approximately 97% complete and the project timeline is now driven by executing the construction process. Piping installation is now underway and it is our main focus before installing controls and electrical equipments. In addition to the ammonia plant being constructed at El Dorado, we are adding a 65% Weatherly nitric acid plant and concentrator to replace the direct strong nitric acid plant that was destroyed in 2012 while also adding capacity. The timeline for this part of the project is on page 14th. At this time, the nitric acid concentrator is mechanically complete and control systems have been installed. Pre-commissioning work will be starting over the next few weeks. On page 15, there is a recent photograph of the ammonia plant on the top of the page. You can see in the picture that foundations,…

Tony Shelby

Analyst · Avondale Partners. Please proceed with your question

Thank you.

Barry Golsen

Analyst · Avondale Partners. Please proceed with your question

With that, I will turn it over to the moderator to open up for questions.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. We thank you all for listening today. Before we open up for questions, we ask you, please limit yourselves to three questions so that others have a chance to ask their questions. You may drop out and enter the queue back at that time. [Operator Instructions]. Our first question today is coming from Dan Mannes from Avondale Partners. Please proceed with your question.

Dan Mannes

Analyst · Avondale Partners. Please proceed with your question

Thanks. Good morning, everyone.

Tony Shelby

Analyst · Avondale Partners. Please proceed with your question

Hey, how are you?

Barry Golsen

Analyst · Avondale Partners. Please proceed with your question

Hi, Dan.

Dan Mannes

Analyst · Avondale Partners. Please proceed with your question

I’m doing good. First of all, Tony I didn’t realize this was your last call hopefully you’ll be on for the next. I’ve really enjoyed working with you in the last couple of years, so hopefully you’ll enjoy your time at the end of the year.

Tony Shelby

Analyst · Avondale Partners. Please proceed with your question

Thanks, Dan. You’ve done an excellent job also and been very perspective of issues.

Dan Mannes

Analyst · Avondale Partners. Please proceed with your question

You got it. So a couple of quick questions here, and I want to preface this by saying we were pretty please with the progress you’re making at - we’re seeing a lot less volatility in the numbers now, it’s getting a little easier to model. But, with that said, as I look at your volume guidance for Q2, it looks fairly similar to what you actually did for Q1. I guess we expected a little bit more seasonality. Is this a function of where your inventory levels are, or demand? Could you may be give us more color on Q2 outlook on Chemical volumes?

Barry Golsen

Analyst · Avondale Partners. Please proceed with your question

Hey, Dan. How are you? So if you look at - you’re right, I mean it was pretty similar to Q1 volumes, but also if you look at Q2 last year, I think pretty similar to those volumes as well. If you remember last year, Pryor was down from most of the first quarter, but came back up in the second quarter. So Pryor and Cherokee went at pretty good rates. So we’re kind of look at the volumes that we think they were pretty in line with what we would have expected base on last quarter and same quarter last year.

Dan Mannes

Analyst · Avondale Partners. Please proceed with your question

But if you think about this, if you were running cleanly over the course of a full year, would you anticipate kind of building volume in an effort to sell more in the second quarter? Would you assume that in a normal year, you would generally see similar levels Q1 and Q2?

Barry Golsen

Analyst · Avondale Partners. Please proceed with your question

I think you’d probably see similar levels you may have different product mix. I think that’s some of the issue. Remember, from a storage standpoint, we’re little bit different than everyone else. We don’t have substantial storage to generally what we’re producing, we’re selling.

Dan Mannes

Analyst · Avondale Partners. Please proceed with your question

One other quick one, on El Dorado, appreciate the color in terms of losses in the quarter and we certainly understand that the challenges you’re facing as you’re buying ammonia. But given the loss of the Orica contract, should we assume not only are you going to incur similar situations you did in Q1? Should we assume things probably got worst for the next couple of quarters before they remediate next year?

Tony Shelby

Analyst · Avondale Partners. Please proceed with your question

You’re absolutely right, Dan. There is going to be some incremental increase over what we did in the first quarter but keep in mind, we’re also expensing preparatory cost for ammonia plant, so there’s going to be some additions there. But a lot of it is going to depend on the production level at El Dorado, you’ll see some fall off in absorption because of the lack of type of pay going forward. So, there’ll be - but you’ll also see some stronger volumes at Ag rate ammonium rate will offset part of that in the second quarter.

Dan Mannes

Analyst · Avondale Partners. Please proceed with your question

And then my last question, this call is actually kind of timely, since you guys have said once El Dorado is up and running, you’re certainly going to look hard at the MLP option. I wanted to ask given the reason IRS proposal, what your read was on that, understanding that it’s just a proposal and not final? And what, if any, impacts that has on your thought process?

Barry Golsen

Analyst · Avondale Partners. Please proceed with your question

Yeah, this is Barry, and I think you just said it. It’s just a proposal, it’s not definitive at this time. So we’re in a wait and see mode to determine where the IRS ultimately comes down. When it comes to where - are thinking this really is a Board of Directors question for LSB and we’re not going to get ahead of the Board of Directors in making a decision about what the decision will ultimately be when we reconsider the possibility of an MLP.

Dan Mannes

Analyst · Avondale Partners. Please proceed with your question

But to that point, given the fact that it’s a proposal, you’re not willing to weigh in on if you had the flexibility in your operations to continue to pursue, you’re going to leave that for a later day?

Barry Golsen

Analyst · Avondale Partners. Please proceed with your question

Yeah, I’m going to leave that for a later day for the experts and for the Board of Directors.

Dan Mannes

Analyst · Avondale Partners. Please proceed with your question

Understood. I was going to say, I know you have a legal background may be just not a tax on legal background.

Barry Golsen

Analyst · Avondale Partners. Please proceed with your question

This happens to be an area a specialty even within the legal world. So, we’ll leave it to the experts when the time’s right, when the IRS ultimately comes down with their final rule.

Dan Mannes

Analyst · Avondale Partners. Please proceed with your question

Understood. Thanks for all the color guys.

Tony Shelby

Analyst · Avondale Partners. Please proceed with your question

Thanks, Dan.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question is coming from Joe Mondillo from Sidoti & Company. Please proceed with your question.

Joseph Mondillo

Analyst · Sidoti & Company. Please proceed with your question

Hi, guys. Good morning.

Barry Golsen

Analyst · Sidoti & Company. Please proceed with your question

Good morning.

Joseph Mondillo

Analyst · Sidoti & Company. Please proceed with your question

I was wondering, aside from pricing within the chemical side as well as on the natural gas side, if you push sort of the dynamics of how that affects the business, I’m wondering how you will look at the gross margin that you posted in the first quarter? In other words, I’m just trying to figure out how you’re looking at - how efficient these plants are running on a production basis as well as on a cost structure basis?

Mark Behrman

Analyst · Sidoti & Company. Please proceed with your question

At our two plants that are using natural gas today so we Pryor and Cherokee, we’re pretty happy with the margins. Actually, with Cherokee we talked to you last quarter about the downtime we had and really how that might have affect the first quarter because we’re going into the quarter with some lower inventories. So you had sales numbers that where we expected them to be, but we had sales commitments that we had to cover. So there was, in one instance, a case where we had a barge that we bought, that obviously had some effect on margin and both gross margin and actual margin dollars. So with the two plants that we have today that are natural gas base, we’re happy with the margins. Clearly, we talked and pointed out about the struggle that we have in El Dorado so that happens to big weigh in on our margins.

Tony Shelby

Analyst · Sidoti & Company. Please proceed with your question

And I think what Mark’s referring to also is that we’re happy with our margin because the on-stream rate was very high during the quarter for both of those plants which drives the margin, then you have to deal with the price versus cost of gas for the rest of it.

Joseph Mondillo

Analyst · Sidoti & Company. Please proceed with your question

Okay. So in regard to El Dorado, obviously that’s a focal point of not concerned but certainly some improvement upside and you’re certainly going to see that when you see the capacity expansion come online. You guys have had sort of 90 million EBITDA projection of benefits once you get that expansion online. However, it seems like over the last 12, 18 months, couple of dynamics, as you lost the mining production with the Orica deal where you had to transfer over some of the production over to, I guess it’s high density AN. And as pricing unfavorably shifted that the losses increased with that plant, so I’m wondering if that dynamic can ever sort of reverse how it’s occurred over the last 18 months? And it seems like you’ve maintained that 90 million EBITDA benefit at El Dorado over this entire time period, if it that dynamic does sort of reverse, could we see a lot more upside on the benefit once the capacity comes online?

Barry Golsen

Analyst · Sidoti & Company. Please proceed with your question

Joe, if you’ll notice on page 18, I think Mark’s done a pretty good job of indicating where we’re going based upon using that 90 million, but it’s based upon 2014 actual. So to the extent that El Dorado has been impacted by high ammonia purchase cost this year, your starting point may be lower so the 90 million could have been higher. But if you look at page 18, I think you have pretty good indication of how we get to the 2017 target of 200 million. Do you agree, Mark?

Mark Behrman

Analyst · Sidoti & Company. Please proceed with your question

Joe, by point of reference I think historically we referenced this between produced and purchased ammonia for $300 and you can see in our earnings release, we stated that the spread would have been $290 in the first quarter, so approximating the $300. So I think the assumptions that we have still hold true.

Joseph Mondillo

Analyst · Sidoti & Company. Please proceed with your question

Okay.

Barry Golsen

Analyst · Sidoti & Company. Please proceed with your question

So Joe, this is Barry. So this is got three part answer, if you’ll go back and look at the fourth quarter conference call, we also included a sensitivity analysis which we did not put in the appendix on this one, since --

Joseph Mondillo

Analyst · Sidoti & Company. Please proceed with your question

Yeah, I got that.

Barry Golsen

Analyst · Sidoti & Company. Please proceed with your question

But we basically try to metrics the potential changes in selling prices of our products and we used ammonia as a proxy for that and the different prices of natural gas. So you could see the effects of those changes.

Joseph Mondillo

Analyst · Sidoti & Company. Please proceed with your question

Okay. I guess my last question and I’ll hop back in queue, related to I’ll focus on the Climate Control business. The margin there certainly was quite weak under what I was looking for. Could you just talk about how you’re thinking about margin in the near term? I know you put out the 2017 goals where you can see yourself going over the next several years, but looking at this year I guess, how are you thinking about the margin that you put up in the first quarter and what you’re looking at sort of for the rest of the year?

Barry Golsen

Analyst · Sidoti & Company. Please proceed with your question

Well, the primary driver of the lower margin in the first quarter had to do with mix. And we’ve looked at the project for the balance of the year from the various operations. And we think as the year progresses, and I think Tony might have mentioned this in the scripted part of the conversation, that as the year progresses, we expect the mix to normalize to more or less previous levels and expect to see that margin increase.

Mark Behrman

Analyst · Sidoti & Company. Please proceed with your question

I think Joe, one of the things that we’re dealing with a little bit is in two of our product lines, there are bit more established and they are bit larger right? And our heat pump business and our fan coil business, so based on sales volume and capacity utilization, they’re absorbing all of their fixed overhead. With our smaller product lines, as they are growing, they are going to grow into similar margins but they are not quite there yet. So, I think we’ll see that throughout the balance of the year.

Joseph Mondillo

Analyst · Sidoti & Company. Please proceed with your question

Okay, great. Thanks for taking my questions.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question today is coming from Keith Maher from Singular Research. Please proceed with your question.

Keith Maher

Analyst · Singular Research. Please proceed with your question

Good morning. I did might have labor the point, in the Chemical business just in terms of the gross margin pressure, and I understand a lot of it is pricing issue between purchased ammonia at El Dorado. But, do you see anything in the near term that might help with that, I know you probably can’t say prices, but do you think there’s something that we could see any improvement this year or do we just have to wait for the plant expansion?

Tony Shelby

Analyst · Singular Research. Please proceed with your question

I think the only thing it’s really pointing to Keith would be the pressure’s going to be off of ammonia pretty soon I think and you could see some weakness in the ammonia price which could impact that.

Keith Maher

Analyst · Singular Research. Please proceed with your question

And I think you mentioned there were some start up costs that are hitting by the Chemical business, can you quantify that?

Tony Shelby

Analyst · Singular Research. Please proceed with your question

Keith, we’re capitalizing costs that are specific to the building of the plant, but we’re expensing off all of the people that we got onboard training for the start up, the ammonia plant, the acid plant. So if we’re training people that are not producing but simply training, we’re expensing that, and I think the number is in the range of $500,000 to $600,000 a month - I mean per quarter.

Keith Maher

Analyst · Singular Research. Please proceed with your question

All right. That’s helpful. Is there any - could you give us any update on the job search with the new Chemical business that might be coming along or when you might be interested in hiring someone?

Barry Golsen

Analyst · Singular Research. Please proceed with your question

It’s coming along. We’re still in relatively early stages of that, but as it progresses when we openly make a selection we’ll certainly let you know.

Keith Maher

Analyst · Singular Research. Please proceed with your question

And may be one final question, with regards to SG&A, obviously your fees for the related to some of these active shareholder issues, soon to be going away, should we expect those to go away completely this quarter or is there any other guidance you can give on the SG&A?

Barry Golsen

Analyst · Singular Research. Please proceed with your question

I think the way to look at that is that we have a settlement agreement, the major impact is behind us. There will be some continuing cost because it’s still a strategic committee but it’s not going to be nearly as significant as it has been in the past.

Mark Behrman

Analyst · Singular Research. Please proceed with your question

But you may see a similar amount in the second quarter that you saw in the first quarter as we finalize all the costs related to the --

Keith Maher

Analyst · Singular Research. Please proceed with your question

Okay. Well thanks a lot of guys. I’ll hop back in queue.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. [Operator Instructions]. Our next question today is coming from Brent Rystorm from Feltl. Please proceed with your question. Mr. Rystorm your line is online perhaps your phone is on mute.

Tony Shelby

Analyst · Feltl. Please proceed with your question. Mr. Rystorm your line is online perhaps your phone is on mute

Good morning, Brent.

Brent Rystorm

Analyst · Feltl. Please proceed with your question. Mr. Rystorm your line is online perhaps your phone is on mute

Good morning. Can you hear me now?

Tony Shelby

Analyst · Feltl. Please proceed with your question. Mr. Rystorm your line is online perhaps your phone is on mute

Yes.

Brent Rystorm

Analyst · Feltl. Please proceed with your question. Mr. Rystorm your line is online perhaps your phone is on mute

All right. Can you give us a quick sense of how you’re thinking about as we ramp up the nitric acid plant and the ammonia plant, how the depreciation is going to start to get expenses and then what losses might look like for the first quarter as those operate?

Mark Behrman

Analyst · Feltl. Please proceed with your question. Mr. Rystorm your line is online perhaps your phone is on mute

We had trouble hearing the last part of your question. It’s garbled due to the transmission. Could you repeat it please?

Brent Rystorm

Analyst · Feltl. Please proceed with your question. Mr. Rystorm your line is online perhaps your phone is on mute

So, could you give us a sense of how the depreciation expenses might ramp for the two expansions as they come online? And then also, I’m expecting they would operate at a loss from a cash perspective at least the first quarter they’re open. Could you give us a little sense in that as well?

Barry Golsen

Analyst · Feltl. Please proceed with your question. Mr. Rystorm your line is online perhaps your phone is on mute

Let me address the depreciation issue first and Mark will discuss the rest of it. I think what you’re going to see Brent is during the third and fourth quarters you’ll see some of these projects being turn keyed and we begin to depreciate projects unless they are turn keyed and in production. And you’ll also see less and less interest being capitalized as these projects are turn keyed because we under gap capitalize the interest base for the fact that they are in construction launch we stop capitalize interest and began depreciation.

Mark Behrman

Analyst · Feltl. Please proceed with your question. Mr. Rystorm your line is online perhaps your phone is on mute

As far as the loss or the cash loss in the first quarter, I would assume that that’s a correct assumption. As we’ve said earlier, we’re going to start up the ammonia plant in the first quarter and we would - we ourselves anticipate not generating a lot of production in that first quarter and then hitting it to the second quarter at an acceptable level of production.

Brent Rystorm

Analyst · Feltl. Please proceed with your question. Mr. Rystorm your line is online perhaps your phone is on mute

Great. That’s very helpful. Thank you. I’m curious if you have thoughts on CS comments yesterday about ammonia production balances shifting from market sale going into the new and production facility that’s been added there. With the - there’s going to be less ammonia in the market in the third and fourth quarter of this year, it’s twofold, does that present a cost issue for you by having less ammonia available in the market and possibly raising prices in the back half of the year? But then also have an opportunity for you with ammonia from Cherokee and Pryor being able to go into those markets?

Mark Behrman

Analyst · Feltl. Please proceed with your question. Mr. Rystorm your line is online perhaps your phone is on mute

Well, first of all, in Cherokee we’re a net ammonia buyer because we’re about 40,000 tons per year short. In Pryor, we’re a net ammonia seller of somewhere between 80,000 and 90,000 tons per year when it’s operating at full rate. As far as El Dorado, we’re a buyer of ammonia but --

Tony Shelby

Analyst · Feltl. Please proceed with your question. Mr. Rystorm your line is online perhaps your phone is on mute

Brent I think the more important there is that you’re exactly right, the more UAN urea has produced UAN the better the three ammonia so we come on board ‘16 with ammonia is going to be a benefit. It could, you’re right it could have an impact on fourth quarter ammonia costs but that’s little bit far from our radar screen right now.

Barry Golsen

Analyst · Feltl. Please proceed with your question. Mr. Rystorm your line is online perhaps your phone is on mute

I guess it would also depend on what offsetting imports there of ammonia. I mean ammonia is more a global supply and demand product than any of the Ag products are. So we just depend on what else around the globe has outages or was down it was being diverted what will happen with the price.

Brent Rystorm

Analyst · Feltl. Please proceed with your question. Mr. Rystorm your line is online perhaps your phone is on mute

Fair enough. And final question, when you talk about the Climate Control growth opportunity that the out service sources you were referencing earlier, both for ‘15 and then through ‘17, how do you view your Climate Control growth opportunity relative to those expectations? Do you think you’ll hold share, do you think you’ll gain share? Thank you.

Barry Golsen

Analyst · Feltl. Please proceed with your question. Mr. Rystorm your line is online perhaps your phone is on mute

Our objective is to gain share and whether we achieve that is yet to be seen, but we certainly have put a lot of initiatives in place with the aim at gaining share.

Brent Rystorm

Analyst · Feltl. Please proceed with your question. Mr. Rystorm your line is online perhaps your phone is on mute

Thanks guys.

Mark Behrman

Analyst · Feltl. Please proceed with your question. Mr. Rystorm your line is online perhaps your phone is on mute

Let me add a little color to that. We have our core business which is more or less about 75% to 80% of that business, we have significant leading market shares already. So gaining shares in those sectors is somewhat more difficult than gaining shares in the category that we call, Other, which are smaller businesses which inherently have less total market shares. So there is more to gain there. But we do believe that it’s possible to gain share across the board it’s a matter of degree.

Brent Rystorm

Analyst · Feltl. Please proceed with your question. Mr. Rystorm your line is online perhaps your phone is on mute

So the worst case would be you hold your market share and you should be able to drive your business relative to the rate cited?

Barry Golsen

Analyst · Feltl. Please proceed with your question. Mr. Rystorm your line is online perhaps your phone is on mute

That’s right.

Brent Rystorm

Analyst · Feltl. Please proceed with your question. Mr. Rystorm your line is online perhaps your phone is on mute

Great. Thanks guys.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question today is a follow up from Joe Mondillo from Sidoti & Company. Please proceed with your question.

Joseph Mondillo

Analyst · Sidoti & Company. Please proceed with your question

Hi, guys. Just a couple of clarification or a couple of questions, follow ups. So, I’m wondering is the - are you anticipating the El Dorado losses or the profitability rephrase that, this year to be - are you expecting the losses to be larger this year than last year?

Barry Golsen

Analyst · Sidoti & Company. Please proceed with your question

Yes.

Joseph Mondillo

Analyst · Sidoti & Company. Please proceed with your question

Okay. And the 90 million plus guidance on the EBITDA for the expansion project is based on the 2014 financials, is that correct?

Mark Behrman

Analyst · Sidoti & Company. Please proceed with your question

Well the $90 million guidance is based on $500 ammonia prices and $5 natural gas prices.

Joseph Mondillo

Analyst · Sidoti & Company. Please proceed with your question

But the streamline chart that you have shows that - it’s not compared to 2014 it’s just an additional $90 million when it comes online?

Barry Golsen

Analyst · Sidoti & Company. Please proceed with your question

Exactly.

Joseph Mondillo

Analyst · Sidoti & Company. Please proceed with your question

Isn’t there a dynamic though given the fact that I guess what I’m trying to get at is, isn’t there a dynamic that the losses are getting larger last year to this year because of the prices of ammonia and what you’re selling it at? But then, the whole dynamic of the plant changes overnight starting next year, where the higher price of that ammonia you’re going to benefit from because you’re going to be selling at that price and you’ll be producing your own ammonia. So I’m just trying to understand how that dynamic I guess works?

Mark Behrman

Analyst · Sidoti & Company. Please proceed with your question

I mean it’s pretty simple, you go from an unprofitable plant to an extremely profitable plant right? I mean you’re going from a plant that has to purchase ammonia and is at cost disadvantage to as you said immediately the dynamics change when that comes on and we got as we’ve said 220,000 tons or so of ammonia that we’re purchasing today that we can say approximately $300 a ton on plus we’ve got another 155,000 ton of ammonia that we’ll produce that we can sell. So the dynamics of the plant do a complete 180.

Joseph Mondillo

Analyst · Sidoti & Company. Please proceed with your question

So, I mean wouldn’t the benefit of the plant be much larger compared to 2015 than compared to 2014?

Mark Behrman

Analyst · Sidoti & Company. Please proceed with your question

I don’t know about much larger, but it’s going to be somewhat larger, yes.

Barry Golsen

Analyst · Sidoti & Company. Please proceed with your question

That chart’s pretty clear there, Joe. The 90 million is based upon the 2014 $54 million, that’s the starting point.

Joseph Mondillo

Analyst · Sidoti & Company. Please proceed with your question

Right. And that’s sort of what I’m trying to get at if the losses are much larger this year, would that 90 million benefit, theoretically be larger than what you’re showing?

Barry Golsen

Analyst · Sidoti & Company. Please proceed with your question

Assuming that all the market conditions are exactly as predicted in the model, the answer would be that it would be somewhat greater okay? But there are a lot of variables here as we know including the selling prices of our products, the price of ammonia on the market, the price of natural gas etcetera. So this was based on a set of assumptions that Mark mentioned before $5 and $500 for natural gas and ammonia respectively. And so you have to look at that grid that we gave you and you have to consider on the sensitivity and consider that when you try to calculate where you think we’re going to be.

Tony Shelby

Analyst · Sidoti & Company. Please proceed with your question

And it also anticipation running the high density low density ammonium nitrate full out not at a lower rate which is what we experienced in ‘15. So once you start replacing all that volume, you’ll get back to the initial assumption in that $90 million number.

Joseph Mondillo

Analyst · Sidoti & Company. Please proceed with your question

Okay. In terms of the 4 million loss that you saw in the first quarter, it sounds like the second quarter could be a bit smaller but in terms of seasonality, should we anticipate - you mentioned that if ammonia prices start to fall which they seemingly have, that could be a benefit but then you also have the seasonality aspect where volume probably will be lower in the back half of the year. So how do you look at the back half of the year regarding that 4 million of losses that you saw in the first quarter?

Barry Golsen

Analyst · Sidoti & Company. Please proceed with your question

I think Dan Mannes asked the question earlier, could we see larger quarterly losses above the $4 million that we’ve outlined for this quarter and the answer was yes.

Joseph Mondillo

Analyst · Sidoti & Company. Please proceed with your question

Okay. I missed that. Sorry about that. And then just lastly, your liquidity right now, how are you looking at that? Are you anticipating potentially having to tap your revolver in the back half of the year? Just wondering if you could talk about liquidity.

Barry Golsen

Analyst · Sidoti & Company. Please proceed with your question

I think we’ve talked about it, but essentially the $100 million working capital revolver is there to fund increase or decrease as working capital requirements not in long-term investments. So we don’t anticipate using that.

Joseph Mondillo

Analyst · Sidoti & Company. Please proceed with your question

Okay. So the liquidity that you are in hand right now, you feel like it’s going to be enough?

Mark Behrman

Analyst · Sidoti & Company. Please proceed with your question

Yeah, we do.

Joseph Mondillo

Analyst · Sidoti & Company. Please proceed with your question

Okay. Alright. Thanks.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. We’ve reached at the end of our question-and-answer session. I’d like to turn the floor back over to management for further and closing comments.

Barry Golsen

Analyst · Avondale Partners. Please proceed with your question

Okay. So I’d like to thank you again for participating today. And I’d like at this time to turn the call over to Carol Oden with some closing comments particularly relating to forward-looking statements.

Carol Oden

Analyst

Thank you. Information reported on this call speaks only as of today May 08, 2015. You’re advised that time-sensitive information may no longer be accurate at the time of any replay. The comments today and the information contained in the presentation materials contain certain forward-looking statements. All these statements, other than statements of historical facts are forward-looking statements. Statements include the words expect, intend, plans, beliefs, project, anticipate or making similar statements of the future or forward-looking statements nature are identified as forward-looking statements. Including, but not limited to any references to the future natural gas costs, ammonia costs and the outlook for Chemical or Climate Control business. The forward-looking statements included, but are not limited to the following statements. Continued on the strengthening demand environment, margin expansion, market outlook of our Chemical business, planting levels, UAN, applications seasons. Growers will continue to use nitrogen products, demand for nitrogen fertilizer, impact of Chinese urea, market sentimental for our agricultural business sales and profits related to industrial grade, ammonium nitrate for the current year, potential customers of industrial grade ammonium nitrate, Climate Control business outlook, prospects of growth, operating leverage expected El Dorado expansion projects to be completed on time and on budget. Expect that acid plants and concentrator to be complete and to begin production in the third quarter 2015 and the ammonia plant construction and commissioning to be completed the end of 2015 with ammonia production start up and ramp up during the first quarter of 2016. Chemical sales, volume outlook, value drivers, projects and initiatives, improved performance, enhanced profitability and shareholder value creation, targeted business metrics and segment EBITDA. El Dorado will continue to operate in loss until the projects are completed and the new plants are operational. Higher sales with improved margins, prospects for continued performance, improvement,…