Earnings Labs

Macy's, Inc. (M)

Q4 2007 Earnings Call· Tue, Feb 26, 2008

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning and welcome to the Macy’s fourth quarter Earnings Call. This call is being recorded. I would now like to turn the call over to your host, Karen Hoguet. Please go ahead.

Karen Hoguet

Management

Thank you. Good morning and welcome to the Macy’s call. I am Karen Hoguet, CFO of the company. Any transcription or other reproduction of the statements made in this call without our consent is prohibited. A replay of the call will be available on our website, www.macysinc.com, beginning approximately two hours after the call concludes. Please refer to the investor relations section of our website for discussions and reconciliations of any non-GAAP financial measures discussed this morning. Keep in mind that all forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause the company’s actual results to differ materially from the expectations and assumptions mentioned today due to a variety of factors that affect the company, including the risks specified in the company’s most recently filed Form 10-K and Form 10-Q. We had hoped for better sales performance in the fourth quarter. But we, like others, were impacted by the weak macro economic environment. Our comp store sales declined 2% in the fourth quarter, which represented the low end of our guidance. Total sales in the quarter were $8.6 billion, 6.2% below last year due to one last week in the quarter this year, the comp-store sales declined, as well as closed store. And while disappointing, our sales performance compared well to our peers in the quarter, giving us comfort that our strategies are appropriate and our execution is on track. We were pleased with our earnings, excluding integration cost of $1.83 in the quarter, given the sales performance. Recurring gross margin in the fourth quarter was 41.6%, up 70 basis points versus last year. Remember, we had told you when we released our second quarter earnings that due to the calendar, we expected a lower gross margin rate in the third quarter and a higher rate in the…

Operator

Operator

(Operators Instructions) We’ll go first to Adrianne Shapira with Goldman Sachs.

Adrianne Shapira - Goldman Sachs

Management

Thank you. Karen, just following on your comments on your comp plans. Could you share with us, how you are planning inventory in terms of the first half versus the second half?

Karen Hoguet

Management

Obviously, we are planning inventory consistent with the sales, and as I said, we expected our comp store sales in the first half of the year, particularly the first quarter, to be weakest and get progressively better.

Adrianne Shapira - Goldman Sachs

Management

Obviously, you are heading into the first half clean in terms of inventory, but where we do hope to end inventory given the fact that comps are going to be weaker in the first half?

Karen Hoguet

Management

What we do, Adrianne, is we focus on receipts by family of business by items, so we really have a very good forecasting process. I am sure there are some areas where we might be heavy. But overall, we feel very good about our ability to adjust our inventory receipts to what’s happening on the sales line.

Adrianne Shapira - Goldman Sachs

Management

Okay, thanks. And then just Karen, could you give us any progression of the $100 million in cost savings?

Karen Hoguet

Management

That's for 2009. In 2008, we had said we were going to save $60 million, and most of that will come in the back half of the year.

Adrianne Shapira - Goldman Sachs

Management

Okay. Then just lastly on the May out-performance, could you give us any more color in terms of regions, categories what you are seeing, what signs of strength are you seeing?

Karen Hoguet

Management

Obviously, at this point we’re really no longer breaking out May versus Macy doors because the truth is that performance now is so mixed. There are some very good performing markets within May. Dallas and Houston for example. And so, at this point we’re just not going to be talking about it anymore.

Adrianne Shapira - Goldman Sachs

Management

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

We'll go next to Mitchell Clark with Morgan Stanley.

Mitchell Clark - Morgan Stanley

Management

Good morning. Karen, first question what would gross margin have been the rate of improvement in the fourth quarter excluding the favorable impact of the calendar shift?

Karen Hoguet

Management

As we said with the third quarter, we really can't quantify it. But clearly there was a factor there and in fact the third quarter margins were down.

Mitchell Clark - Morgan Stanley

Management

Okay.

Karen Hoguet

Management

And it's not all of the improvement, Mitchell.

Mitchell Clark - Morgan Stanley

Management

Right, it’s part of that. Even excluding that you would still have seen improvement in the gross margin rate?

Karen Hoguet

Management

Correct.

Mitchell Clark - Morgan Stanley

Management

Okay. And then the second question, you had mentioned that, you are more concerned about the economy following January and February. What gives you conviction that you will see improvement in the consumer environment in the back half for the year?

Karen Hoguet

Management

I am not sure, I used the word conviction.

Mitchell Clark - Morgan Stanley

Management

Okay.

Karen Hoguet

Management

I think like all of you, we really don't know, and again we've got people looking at this, we're reading, we think there will be some improvement as we get through the third quarter and into the fourth. And, obviously we're watching very closely.

Mitchell Clark - Morgan Stanley

Management

Okay. And then just one last question, Karen, your thoughts on retaining your investments grade credit rating?

Karen Hoguet

Management

Well I think in times like this particularly, but always we try to retain access to all of the capital markets. And we think investment grade does help us do that. So, obviously, we’re always balancing factors, but we would like to maintain that rating.

Mitchell Clark - Morgan Stanley

Management

Okay. Great. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

We'll go next to Charles Grom with JPMorgan Chase.

Charles Grom - JPMorgan Chase

Management

Thanks. Good morning, Karen. Could you provide a little bit more color on your decision, I think, in mid December to close the nine stores? We noticed that a couple were only open, I think, four or five years, which is surprising? And I guess second follow-up to that is it possible that there will be more closings as ’08 progresses, or are we done with the nine for this year?

Karen Hoguet

Management

Well, every year we are constantly reviewing stores that aren't performing well. And you'll notice that every year we closed a couple of stores, that’s nothing new. There were few more this year, largely because we had given the May stores a year before we made a decision to close them. So, we will always close the couple of stores every year. But I don’t expect a large number of closings, and certainly not in the near future.

Charles Grom - JPMorgan Chase

Management

Okay. And then just on CapEx, like you said roughly $100 million larger than your guidance, but your '08 outlook is back up to $1.1 billion. And I guess my question is, why is it going up in '09? And can you give us a little bit of color on mix between new stores, remodels, technology etcetera?

Karen Hoguet

Management

What we suggested is it, in ‘08; our guidance is for $1 billion.

Charles Grom - JPMorgan Chase

Management

Okay. So --

Karen Hoguet

Management

But I am not sure what --

Charles Grom - JPMorgan Chase

Management

Okay, so it is roughly in line then?

Karen Hoguet

Management

Yes.

Charles Grom - JPMorgan Chase

Management

Okay. And then just on mix in terms of new stores renovations?

Karen Hoguet

Management

You know I don't have the number in front of me but it won't change materially from where it was in our last three-year plan which is in our FACS book.

Charles Grom - JPMorgan Chase

Management

Okay. And then, just last on the merger and integration line, $69 million, specifically, where would these costs have fallen in the P&L had you not broken them? Is it more in SG&A than COGS?

Karen Hoguet

Management

It's all SG&A because had it been in margin, it would have been that lot.

Charles Grom - JPMorgan Chase

Management

Okay. Alright, thanks.

Operator

Operator

We'll go next to Dana Cohen with Banc of America Securities.

Dana Cohen - Banc of America Securities

Management

Hey, Karen, couple of questions. Going back to the fourth quarter, you missed the middle of your original range lets say by $0.07 or something. How much of that was in gross margin and how much of that was in SG&A? I sort of thought the gross margin would have been a lot weaker coming into today. So can you just help us out as to where versus your plan it came in?

Karen Hoguet

Management

Yeah, I can't really give you where it would have been with the guidance because, when we give guidance, we look at multiple scenarios that could happen that way.

Dana Cohen - Banc of America Securities

Management

But it wasn't sales?

Karen Hoguet

Management

As I said Dana, we were pleased with the gross margin given the sales. So, I think we are saying the same thing that you are saying, which is that we were pleased. Had the sales been stronger though I would have expected a stronger gross margin.

Dana Cohen - Banc of America Securities

Management

So it really had to have been then on the SG&A side really?

Karen Hoguet

Management

What on the SG&A side?

Dana Cohen - Banc of America Securities

Management

The shortfall in terms of the earnings.

Karen Hoguet

Management

Not in terms of dollars, in terms of rates.

Dana Cohen - Banc of America Securities

Management

Right but your comps didn't come in below your plan. So I am just struggling, given that it's not a sales issue versus your original plan?

Karen Hoguet

Management

Well, it is all kinds of different scenarios for getting there, but I don't really know how to answer the question. Sorry.

Dana Cohen - Banc of America Securities

Management

Okay. It sounds like even versus where you were a few weeks ago when you said the guidance for the year, things continue to be more challenging than you would have expected. I mean, help us to understand how you now think the year will progress? It sounds like you're pushing a bit into the back half?

Karen Hoguet

Management

Dana, I wish I had a crystal ball.

Dana Cohen - Banc of America Securities

Management

So do we all.

Karen Hoguet

Management

The only good thing I can tell you is, if you think about months in a retail year, if you're going to have weakness, January and February are pretty good months to have weakness.

Dana Cohen - Banc of America Securities

Management

Okay.

Karen Hoguet

Management

So, I really don't know anymore than you do and that's why we are trying to be flexible.

Dana Cohen - Banc of America Securities

Management

Okay. And then lastly on credit, obviously, you don't own it anymore but it does flow through. I mean it sounded like last quarter you were very pleased with credit in terms of penetration and what was going on there. Can you just give us an update?

Karen Hoguet

Management

Yeah, I mean from a penetration perspective, we feel very good about credit. For the year 2007, our penetration was almost 46% which was up 230 basis points over last year. So we feel very good about the card, we feel very good that the marketing relating to the card is working well. And so much of our economics today is based on credit sales. So that's a good thing. Obviously like others were concerned about bad debt because we don't own the portfolio, it doesn't impact us as directly as it would if we still owned the credit. But like others, we too are concerned about bad debt and delinquency.

Dana Cohen - Banc of America Securities

Management

And are you seeing that start to creep up?

Karen Hoguet

Management

No, it started creeping up in the third quarter. And we really haven't seen anything since then in terms of further creep.

Dana Cohen - Banc of America Securities

Management

Okay. So, it's about where it was tracking in Q3?

Karen Hoguet

Management

Correct.

Dana Cohen - Banc of America Securities

Management

Great, thank you.

Operator

Operator

We'll go next to Christine Augustine with Bear Stearns.

Christine Augustine - Bear Stearns

Management

Thanks. Hi, Karen.

Karen Hoguet

Management

Hi, Christine.

Christine Augustine - Bear Stearns

Management

I have two questions. The first is, in your sales assumption for '08, how much disruption, if any, from the divisional consolidation are you anticipating in the sales? And my second question is, when you start to anniversary, the more intense promotions, I think it’s May-June that you cycle those; what is the plan as you come around that reset of promotions? Thank you.

Karen Hoguet

Management

Well, the reset of promotion wasn't really a reset. We still have fewer coupon days in '07 than we did in '06. It was just more than what we had expected. So, there is not a major increase in promotional activity that we're concerned about year round for this year, which is I think what you're implying.

Christine Augustine - Bear Stearns

Management

Yes, I thought that you step that up?

Karen Hoguet

Management

Stepped it up versus what we had expected to do, not versus the prior year.

Christine Augustine - Bear Stearns

Management

Do you think you have to step-up then again just given what's going on with the consumer?

Karen Hoguet

Management

No, because we're planning to not reduce it this year or to that extent we might have otherwise given what's happening with the consumer. So, we are planning a similar promotional environment this year as last year. We might have hoped a year ago to be reducing it, but we don't think this is the environment in which to do that.

Christine Augustine - Bear Stearns

Management

Okay.

Karen Hoguet

Operator

When you asked for your first question about disruption, we are not planning any disruption in those geographies, in-part that's what this new structure is intended to fight against as well as the additional investment in selling in those regions.

Christine Augustine - Bear Stearns

Management

Okay.

Operator

Operator

We'll go next to Liz Dunn with Thomas Weisel Partners.

Liz Dunn - Thomas Weisel Partners

Analyst

Hi, good morning.

Karen Hoguet

Operator

Good morning.

Liz Dunn - Thomas Weisel Partners

Analyst

I was thinking about the decision to suspend the share repurchase until the environment improves. Are you talking about a return to positive comps or what exactly will you be looking for to return to repurchasing stock?

Karen Hoguet

Operator

I can't really give you a specific number on that, but given the uncertainty in the environment and given the fact that so much of our cash flow comes in the back half of the year, we just have to be confident about what's going to happen in the back half of the year, before I'd want to buyback any significant amount of stock. So I don't know how to give you a specific number on that.

Liz Dunn - Thomas Weisel Partners

Analyst

Okay and then just a follow-up to Christine’s question. Are you able breakout how much you’re reinvesting? Obviously, there are savings and there is reinvestment in selling and then also these 250 positions. Can you give us any visibility in terms of how much the reinvestment is?

Karen Hoguet

Operator

NO, what we’ve said is that the net will be a savings of $60 million this year and a $100 million next year.

Liz Dunn - Thomas Weisel Partners

Analyst

Okay, thank you.

Operator

Operator

We’ll go next to Jeff Stein with [Stein] Research. Jeff Stein – Stein Research: First of all Karen, just a clarification on that last answer, the $60 million and $100 million, are those both incremental numbers, or is it $100 million run rate capturing $60 million of that $100 million this year?

Karen Hoguet

Operator

The $100 million run rate capturing $60 this year. Jeff Stein – Stein Research: Got it, okay. And secondly, you’ve talked earlier about your long-term targets, 14% to 15% EBITDA margin, 2% comp growth. I'm wondering, can you get to a 14% to 15% EBITDA margin with just a 2% kind of trend line comp growth rate?

Karen Hoguet

Operator

Again, we said 2% plus and I do think we can get there with the 2% comp, it will just take a little longer. Jeff Stein – Stein Research: Okay. And final question, can you tell us a little bit about the sales level you achieved in your direct marketing business in 2007? And you did allude to the fact that you have been investing in that business. Will the higher level of investment continue in 2008?

Karen Hoguet

Operator

Yeah. This past year we opened a facility in Portland, Tennessee, and in '08 we’ll be opening another facility outside of Phoenix in Goodyear, Arizona. So, that investment will continue also in systems and improving the customer experience etcetera. Obviously, it’s the fastest growing part of our business. So for example, we went to cut CapEx, it did not make an impact on that investment. So we do expect to continue to invest in that business. Jeff Stein – Stein Research: And can you just tell us what the level of sales you achieved in that?

Karen Hoguet

Operator

Yes. Sorry about that. We are on track, this year in '08 we had talked about doing over $1 billion in our online businesses and we are on track to do that. Jeff Stein – Stein Research: Got it. Okay, thank you.

Operator

Operator

We’ll go next to Robert Drbul with Lehman Brothers.

Robert Drbul - Lehman Brothers

Analyst

Hi, Karen.

Karen Hoguet

Operator

Hi, Bob.

Robert Drbul - Lehman Brothers

Analyst

Two questions I guess, the first one is, and you talked about couponing levels. But can you talk about the advertising expense that you incurred in the fourth quarter and then how you are thinking about it for 2008?

Karen Hoguet

Operator

Yeah, I think you will find that advertising expense for 2007 as a whole, I can't speak to the fourth quarter, was up just slightly. And my suspicion is, we will keep it flattish in 2008, again, reflecting the environment that we are in.

Robert Drbul - Lehman Brothers

Analyst

Okay. And then on the private label, can you maybe address a little bit the sourcing costs and if you are seeing any pressures overseas in terms of what's happening there?

Karen Hoguet

Operator

We are beginning to see some pressures and thank goodness, we have a fabulous overseas organization, it’s all over this issue and trying to move production around and manage the process such that the customer won’t see those increases. But we are watching it closely.

Robert Drbul - Lehman Brothers

Analyst

Okay, thank you very much.

Operator

Operator

We will go next to Tino Jang with Citi. Deborah Weinswig – Citigroup: Hi, it’s actually Deborah Weinswig. So, Karen, you referred to the recently announced division consolidation launch of the localization initiative. Can you elaborate on what we might see with regards to more localized marketing and merchandising, and when should we see these results, and also are there systems upgrades or enhancements that are helping with the localization initiative or is it more of a change in processes and people on the field?

Karen Hoguet

Operator

Well, there are systems that are being rolled out through all of the Macy’s division this year to help us better allocate assortments, as well as, do better assortment planning. Without those systems we wouldn’t be able to do the restructuring, so it’s facilitating it. But that was on track to be put into use this year in any event. So, yes, this technology is working with the restructuring. In terms of when we are going to began to see impact, my hope is that you will see small changes this fall. But my guess is any major impact on assortments really won’t happen until next spring. Just given these organizations won’t be in place until the second quarter of this year.

Deborah Weinswig - Citigroup

Analyst

Okay and then with regards to your real estate strategy going forward; one, should we expect more source to be of-mall going forward, and then also you alluded to expanding Bloomingdale’s more aggressively. Can you please provide some more additional color on that?

Karen Hoguet

Operator

Sure. I think the reality of mall construction is such that more of our new stores will be in lifestyle centers as opposed to traditional malls. Not because we don’t want to be in traditional malls, but because there aren’t as many of those being built. So, we will do both, but I think most of our new stores are going to be in more of the open air lifestyle centers. In terms of Bloomingdale's, we are obviously looking for real estate sites across the country that we think fit with where Bloomingdale's would do best. There aren't 100 of these sites, but there are some and we are aggressively trying to find them, and get deals going.

Deborah Weinswig - Citigroup

Analyst

And then last question, I was especially impressed that your gross margin performance in the quarter, especially compared to your peers who reported so far, can you talk about the processes and procedures that kind of you took in terms of an approach in fourth quarter and maybe how that kind of translates into what we'll see for '08 as well?

Karen Hoguet

Operator

It is hard for me to compare to our competitors because I candidly don't know what they do. But our merchants stay very close to sales trend and are constantly moving receipts relative to sales and it seems to have paid off up quite well in the fourth quarter.

Deborah Weinswig - Citigroup

Analyst

Okay. Well, congratulations in a tough environment and best of luck in '08.

Karen Hoguet

Operator

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

We'll go next to Uta Werner with Sanford Bernstein.

Uta Werner - Sanford Bernstein

Analyst

Thank you. Good morning Karen. I've a question, first of all related to new store openings. I wondered if you could tell us a little about the number for the year, how the mix is between Bloomingdale's and Macy's and maybe from which regions do you see them coming? I also wondered about the temporary closings when we might expect those to open up again.

Karen Hoguet

Operator

Okay. If I look at 2007, we will have opened 12 new stores and of those 2 were Bloomingdale's. In '08, I believe we are going to open 5 new stores and none of those are Bloomingdale's.

Uta Werner - Sanford Bernstein

Analyst

Okay. My second question relates to the credit card business. You mentioned that while you are not directly exposed to bad debt, you indirectly are. Could you comment a little bit about the magnitude of the EBIT stream coming from the credit card and the range within, which we might see fluctuations to the extent you can?

Karen Hoguet

Operator

No, we really don't break that out, sorry.

Uta Werner - Sanford Bernstein

Analyst

Thank you.

Karen Hoguet

Operator

You're welcome.

Operator

Operator

(Operator Instructions). We'll go next to Michelle Tan with UBS.

Michelle Tan - UBS

Analyst

Great, thanks. Most of my questions have already been asked, but I just had a few. You mentioned concern over sales trends in January and February, is it possible that you share with us any color on how February looks so far relative to January?

Karen Hoguet

Operator

Yeah, I mean early February was weak as we've gotten through Valentine's Day, President's Day, business looks better.

Michelle Tan - UBS

Analyst

Okay.

Karen Hoguet

Operator

And some of the spring fashions are selling. I am happy to report that [Inc.] which had a tough year last year on one of our major ready-to-wear brands, is on fire again which at least indicates to us when you have newness and you have fashion, it does sell even in these economic environments. But we'll have to see so, slightly more encouraged by the end of February than the beginning, but I think it's going to be a rocky year.

Michelle Tan - UBS

Analyst

Okay, great. And then, as far as the online business goes, anything you can share on where the profitability is on that business and at what point you start to leverage these incremental investments that you are doing to drive growth?

Karen Hoguet

Operator

It's profitable already.

Michelle Tan - UBS

Analyst

Okay. Any magnitude relative to retail?

Karen Hoguet

Operator

No, I mean it's a good business and it's all related to retail because we do so many things that, for example, the bridal business, how do you allocate the profits between the two. But it is a profitable business for us already.

Michelle Tan - UBS

Analyst

Okay, great. And is it leveraging now with your additional investments relative to the growth or --?

Karen Hoguet

Operator

There are start-up costs and that's one of the things I had alluded to in the fourth quarter.

Michelle Tan - UBS

Analyst

Right.

Karen Hoguet

Operator

As you make the systems investments and bring the warehouses on-stream.

Michelle Tan - UBS

Analyst

Okay. And then I guess just finally on the SG&A overall, you mentioned that you leveraged from the sales decline being the biggest piece of the SG&A increase. It does seem like a significant increase on a down two comp. Can you give us color on how much of it also came from the 53rd week last year, now being in the base this year and then also the store closings?

Karen Hoguet

Operator

The SG&A was below last year.

Michelle Tan - UBS

Analyst

No, I know. I guess I am saying, when you look at the rate being up 140 basis points.

Karen Hoguet

Operator

I'm sorry. I thought you meant dollars, I apologize.

Michelle Tan - UBS

Analyst

No.

Karen Hoguet

Operator

-- a piece of it, too. But it is very hard in this business to lever expenses when you've got a negative comp.

Michelle Tan - UBS

Analyst

No, alright. I guess it's just surprising, 140 basis points. I guess any kind of incremental breakout you can give us specifically on how much was de-leveraged on the comp?

Karen Hoguet

Operator

It's hard to do that. I am sorry.

Michelle Tan - UBS

Analyst

Okay, that's fine. Thanks for the help.

Karen Hoguet

Operator

You bet.

Operator

Operator

It appears there are no further questions at this time.

Karen Hoguet

Operator

Great. Well, thank you all very much.

Operator

Operator

That does conclude today's conference. We thank you for your participation. And you may now disconnect.