Martina Hund-Mejean
Analyst · JPMorgan
Thanks, Ajay, and good morning, everyone. Let me begin on Page 2 of the deck, which shows our reported results. As Bob said, we are very pleased to start off 2010 with strong first quarter financial results. Revenue grew 13.1% to $1.3 billion over the comparable period last year. On a constant-currency basis, net revenue grew 10.2%. This revenue increase was primarily driven by a 10.9% increase in cross-border volume, and 8.3% increase in gross dollar volume on a local currency basis and a 4.6% increase in a number of process transactions. Pricing contributed approximately five percentage points to net revenue growth. This growth was somewhat tempered by an increase in rebates and incentives due to the impact of our cross-border pricing structure, customer agreement activity and volume increases. Operating expenses increased 2.2%, primarily due to foreign exchange fluctuations. Excluding the impact of foreign exchange, operating expenses were up slightly as we continue to manage our expenses prudently. Our operating income was $700 million for the quarter and resulted in a quarterly operating margin of 53.5%, a 4.9 percentage point improvement over the year ago quarter. We delivered net income of $455 million, or $3.46 per diluted share, up roughly 24% over the first quarter of 2009. Turning to Page 3, we are seeing a stronger performance across a number of business drivers, including the strongest volume growth since the third quarter of 2008. And cross-border volumes were back to pretty healthy double-digit growth levels as well. Worldwide gross dollar volume, or GDV, was up 8.3% on a local-currency basis in the first quarter, and grew 14.8% on a U.S. dollar-converted basis to $631 billion. We've continued to see stabilizing trends in U.S. GDV with good sequential improvement in the first quarter, which was down 1.1% as compared to a decline of 3.4% in the fourth quarter last year. Across the rest of the world, GDV continue to grow a healthy 14.7% on a local-currency basis. Worldwide credit GDV grew 3.5% on a local-currency basis versus the slight decline in the fourth quarter. This is the first quarter since the fourth quarter of 2008 were worldwide credit GDV was positive. U.S. credit GDV growth continues to improve on a sequential basis, but was still down in the high single-digit range. Credit GDV for the rest of the world grew 9.1% on a local-currency basis. Let's turn to debit. Worldwide debit GDV grew 18.1% on a local-currency basis. This compares to about 12% growth in the first quarter of last year. In the U.S., debit GDV volume grew 7%. Debit growth for the rest of the world was approximately 33%, primarily driven once again by growth in our Asia Pacific, Middle East Africa region. On a local-currency basis, worldwide purchase volume grew 8.7%. U.S. purchase volume was also slightly positive for the quarter. Cross-border volume growth on a local-currency basis was up 10.9%. We saw a double-digit growth in our Asia Pacific, Middle East, Africa and European region, while our cross-border business in Latin America was good, largely due to the strength of our Brazilian cross-border volume. We continue to see good growth in our U.S. cross-border volumes with strong cross-border acquiring from travels into the United States. When we look at processed transactions, they increased 4.6%, compared with the year-ago quarter to a $5.4 billion. In Asia Pacific, Middle East, Africa and the Latin American regions, processed transactions continue to grow at double-digit rates. With the exception of Europe, all other regions grew at mid to high single-digit rates. The number of MasterCard branded cards worldwide was essentially flat on a year-over-year basis at 957 million cards for the quarter. Excluding the U.S., the rest of the world card issuance grew approximately 7%, demonstrating the continuing growth opportunities for MasterCard from the secular shift from cash to electronic payment forms. As of March 31, 2010, there were approximately 1.6 billion MasterCard and Maestro-branded cards issued globally. Now let's turn to Page 4 to discuss the components of revenue. Domestic assessment increased 6.1% from the first quarter of 2010 due to increased volumes and the impact of the April 2009 pricing change, partially offset by the repeal of some European pricing beginning in July 2009. Foreign exchange contributed roughly three percentage points of growth. Cross-border volume fees increased 39% versus Q1 '09. A little more than half of this $125 million increase was due to pricing actions during 2009. The remainder was primarily due to cross-border volume growth, which was up 10.9% on a local-currency basis. Foreign exchange contributed approximately three percentage points of growth. Transaction processing fees increased 16.7% compared to the year-ago period. We continue to benefit from April 2009 U.S. pricing changes, which accounted for approximately 11 percentage points of the increase. The impact of foreign exchange contributed roughly three percentage points of growth. Processed transactions grew 4.6% in the quarter and continued to be affected by the loss of certain debit portfolios in the U.K. and the U.S. Excluding the loss of these portfolios, processed transactions grew approximately 10%. Other revenues increased 12.6% versus the first quarter of 2009, primarily driven by compliance and penalty fees. All of these resulted in an increase of $255 million, or 17.1% in gross revenue. For the quarter, rebates and incentives grew $103 million. Approximately $55 million of this increase was due to rebates associated with our new cross-border pricing structure. The remainder was attributed to new and renewed agreement and volume growth. Overall, rebates and incentives represented 25.2% of gross revenue, versus the 22.6% in the first quarter a year ago. Now let's turn to Page 5 for some detail on expenses. During the first quarter, total operating expenses increased 2.2% and were up only 0.5% excluding the impact of currency fluctuations. Within total operating expenses, general and administrative expenses increased 2.1%, with currency fluctuations accounting for 1.4 percentage points of the increase. The remaining change in G&A was primarily driven by a 2.9% increase in personnel cost, mainly due to increased payroll taxes related to divesting of equity compensation awards. Travel and entertainment cost was also up somewhat versus extremely low levels in last year's first quarter. These increases were partially offset by lower severance cost and reduced payroll. Advertising and marketing spend was down 0.7% versus the year-ago period. Excluding the impact of foreign exchange, A&M declined about 4% versus the first quarter of 2009 primarily due to lower spend in the U.S. Depreciation, amortization was up as a result of continued investment in data center equipment and capitalized software. Moving to the cash flow statement and balance sheet highlights on Page 6. We generated $95 million in cash from operations in the first quarter primarily driven by operating income, partially offset by payments of year end payable litigation settlement payments and the payroll tax liability associated with divesting of equity compensation awards. We ended the quarter with cash, cash equivalents and other liquid investments of $3.3 billion. Before getting into some thoughts for full year 2010, let me give you an update of what we've seen recently. While looking at our MasterCard processed volumes through April 28, we see the following. Our cross-border volumes continue to improve across all regions, with a rate of growth a bit higher than the first quarter. We see continued strong growth in our Asia Pacific, Middle East, Africa region and Europe region, and some good increases in the U.S. and acquire cross-border volume as more consumers and business people travel to the U.S. As Bob said earlier, growth in U.S. credit processed volumes was more positive in April than it was in March. However, when we look at total U.S. processed volume growth in April, it is very similar to the first quarter growth rate due to the tempering effect of the two U.S. debit portfolio losses. Total processed volume growth for the rest of the world in April was also similar to what we saw in the first quarter. Now let's turn to our thoughts for 2010, please look to Slide 7. In order for our full year 2010 net revenue growth to be as strong as the double-digit growth we saw in the first quarter, we would have to see further improvements in some of the macroeconomic indicators, stronger volume growth and cross-border activity beyond what we are currently forecasting. Remember, as the year progresses, we will see some tempering in top line growth due to the following factors. First, we begin to experience tougher comps, given that signs of economic recovery began to show in the second half of 2009. Second, the rollover of a few portfolios will continue to dampen our processed transaction growth. Right now, we expect this to bottom out in the fourth quarter of the year, but we expect processed transaction growth to remain in the single-digit range. We will continue to give you an indication of the adjusted transaction growth rate each quarter in order to demonstrate how the underlying business is performing. And we continue to expect contra as a percentage of gross revenue to average 26% to 27% for the full year, given our current expectations of volume growth and cross-border volume growth in particular. Therefore, as a percentage of growth order revenue, contra will be a bit higher in the remaining quarters for the year than the 25% level we saw in Q1. Let me remind you, that we always look at rebates and incentives in the context of longer-term net revenue growth. Overall, we continue to anticipate our total operating expenses to 2010 will be flat to slightly down over 2009 levels including severance charges. Some of the savings obtained from our 2009 severance actions will be reinvested back into the business areas, such as e-commerce and prepaid, as well as some additional marketing efforts. Turning to the components of operating expense. General and administrative expense is expected to be down from 2009 levels, including severance. We still expect advertising and marketing to be up, mid-single digits from our full year 2009 spend. While our current full year view for advertising and marketing expense has not changed, our expectations for the quarterly cadence of spend has changed from our initial thoughts. Rather than the absolute level of spend being relatively equal in the remaining three quarters, we now expect the quarterly spend to increase sequentially as we move through the year, and depreciation, amortization will trend upward over the balance of the year due to the impact of increased investments in our business. We continue to assume an effective tax rate of 34.5% for 2010. And finally, we remain focused on our objective for the 2009 to 2011 period of annual margin expansion of three to five percentage points and average annual net income growth of 20% to 30%. Remember, while all of our objectives are on a constant-currency basis, our as-reported numbers will include any impact of foreign exchange. Assuming yesterday's exchange rates hold for the balance of the year, we would expect the current tailwind to revenue we saw in this quarter to be a roughly neutral in the second quarter turning into headwind for the back half of the year. As we look at underlying economic indicators, customer relationships and business momentum, we believe we will be able to deliver another solid year. Let me now turn the call to back to Barbara to begin the Q&A session. Barbara?