Charles Christmas
Management
You don't maybe talking about CECL at this point; clearly, the loan growth necessitates additional reserves. And while we don't like making provisions, we certainly want to make sure we keep our reserve adequate, which is reflective of that loan growth. And of course, we were very proud of our very, very strong credit metrics, which if you look at just those, it makes it difficult to increase reserve of any notable size, which means that you're heavily reliant on your qualitative measurements and those factors. So, really I think while the growth is certainly going to be there, or we think it's going to be there, and that's going to result in some reserve increases like it did the first quarter, it's kind of more of to answer your question in a very long winded way is more about what happens with those qualitative factors. The big one of course, which is pretty much out of our control is the economic forecast is we use a third-party and look the market for that. When you look at expected GDP growth, unemployment rates, those types of things over the next couple of years, those are still pretty strong and pretty frothy, which doesn't add a lot to your reserve calculation, as a matter of fact, as of the end of the year, and so as the end of March is actually a small negative to our reserve calculation on the economic factor. So, we would expect that probably as we move along that quarter-over-quarter maybe the economic forecast isn't as strong and maybe we'll see the need to add to our reserves. As we move along, I would say that's just not Mercantile, I would say that impacts any bank that's adopted CECL, but I would also say, we've got other factors in here, we have quite a bit of money in our reserve associated with COVID. Not just the disease itself, but all the impacts, that it has supply chains and all those things that we know about, there's quite a bit of money in the reserve for that factor, hopefully over time, we can start peeling some of that away. I definitely look forward to that. And then, of course, we'll just keep an eye on all the other normal regulatory factors that we have. So, I can't give you a solid answer. I think that right now, what we saw in the first quarter, seems to be what I would expect and at least in the next couple of quarters. But that makes the assumption that there's no significant change in economic forecasting.