Jeff Campbell
Analyst · JPMorgan
Well, thanks, John, and good afternoon, everyone. McKesson capped off another year of solid financial performance, and we're pleased that we exceeded our original EPS guidance for the year and have laid a good foundation heading into fiscal 2012. In my remarks today, I'll cover both the fourth quarter and full year results. As you know, we provide our guidance on an annual basis due to both the seasonality and the quarter-to-quarter volatility that's inherent in some of our businesses. In this context, an annual look at our financial results can provide more meaningful insights into some of the key trends. So I will focus more on the annual numbers than the quarterly ones today, and I will also comment on what these trends mean to 2012. Let me point out that my discussion today will focus on our full year FY '11 earnings per share from continuing operations, excluding adjustments of litigation reserves of $4.86, which you will see at the bottom of Schedule I in our earnings release. It is important to note, however, that this $4.86 includes $0.14 of US Oncology acquisition-related expenses. Let me begin with our consolidated results. For the full year, consolidated revenues increased 3% to $112.1 billion from $108.7 billion a year ago. We had strong revenue growth in the quarter of 8% to $28.9 billion, primarily driven by organic growth in both segments, as well as our acquisition of US Oncology. Gross profit was up 5% for the year and 11% for the quarter, this is a tremendous result, given the higher-than-average gross profits generated by last year's incremental flu end. Total operating expenses for the full year were up 7% to $3.9 million, and up 12% to $1.1 billion for the quarter. Our full year and fourth quarter operating expenses were higher, primarily due to the US Oncology acquisition, and we recorded $43 million of US Oncology acquisition-related expenses on this line for the full year. If you think about this for fiscal 2012, the full year incremental impact of the ongoing US Oncology costs will drive about a 5% increase in the operating expense line for the overall company. About 1 point of this increase will be due to the expected $0.06 of US Oncology acquisition-related expenses that will also flow through this line in 2012. Moving down the P&L. Other income was down a bit to $36 million for the year. I would note for modeling purposes that both fiscal 2010 and fiscal 2011 benefited from one-time positive items that were each roughly $15 million to $20 million in size. Full year interest expense increased 19% to $222 million, which includes approximately $25 million of US Oncology acquisition-related expenses for the bridge financing we put in place. Excluding this $25 million, full year interest expense increased 5% versus the prior year, primarily due to the assumed US Oncology debt and the subsequent refinancing of the debt. This higher debt load will impact our fiscal 2012 interest expense. And for modeling purposes, we expect approximately $260 million of interest expense in fiscal 2012. Turning now to taxes. Last quarter, we raised our full year estimate of the tax run rate to 34%. In the fourth quarter, however, we recognize some favorable tax discrete items, which drove our full year effective tax rate down to 31%. Going forward, our full year fiscal 2012 outlook assumes a tax rate of 33%. All of these factors we've now discussed gave us a full year earnings per share from continuing operations excluding adjustments to the litigation reserves of $4.86, which as I mentioned includes $0.14 of US Oncology acquisition-related expenses. To wrap up our consolidated results, weighted average diluted shares outstanding decreased 4% for the full year to $263 million and declined 5% for the quarter to $260 million. This year-over-year decline was primarily due to the cumulative impact of our share repurchases including $500 million in the fourth quarter, which brought our total share repurchases for the fiscal year to $2.1 billion. For fiscal 2012, we are assuming weighted average diluted shares outstanding goes down to 253 million. Let's now turn to the segment results. Distribution Solutions overall revenues increased 3% for the full year and 8% for the quarter. To go to the components, direct revenues were up 7% for the full year and 12% for the quarter. When you exclude the impact of the US Oncology acquisition, which contributed about 5 points of growth in the quarter, our fourth quarter revenues increased approximately 7%. Warehouse revenues declined 13% for the full year and 1% for the quarter. Consistent with what we said over the past year, there were several factors that contributed to these result. Lower purchases from existing large retail chain customers, the effective shift of revenues to Direct Store Delivery completed in the first 3 quarters and the impact of brand to generic conversions. Remember though that the impact on our earnings of lower warehouse revenues is much more modest as we earned lower margin on our warehouse revenues relative to the margin on our direct revenues. Canadian revenues on a constant-currency basis grew 1% for the full year and declined 3% for the quarter. Market growth throughout the year was partially offset by government-imposed price reductions on generics, which phased-in through the year and the generic to Lipitor in Canada. Medical-Surgical revenues were up 2% for the year and up 5% for the quarter. Market growth this fiscal year was offset by the decrease in demand associated with the flu season. Excluding the incremental flu impact in the prior year, Medical-Surgical full year revenues grew approximately 6% compared to last year. Gross profit in Distribution Solutions increased 8% for the full year and 10% for the quarter. For both the year and the quarter, gross profit is growing faster than revenues driven by strong branded manufacturer compensation and strong growth in our generics profits. Overall, this is a remarkable performance considering last year's incremental flu benefit primarily flowed through the gross profit line. As a reminder, we had $0.35 to $0.40 of incremental flu profits in FY '10, all of which flowed through Distribution Solutions at much higher than average gross profit margins. Distribution Solutions operating expenses increased 9% for the full year and 15% for the quarter, primarily due to the acquisition of US Oncology. I would note that the $0.04 of US Oncology acquisition-related expenses in the March quarter primarily flowed through this operating expense line. For the full year, operating profit grew 6% to $2.1 billion. Our operating margin was up 6 points to 194 basis points, which is a tremendous performance given that the prior year's margin, excluding the incremental flu benefit was 172 basis points. Turning now to Technology Solutions. Revenues were up 2% for the full year to $3.2 billion and also up 7% for the quarter to $876 million. Recall that the sale of our McKesson Asia-Pacific business in July of this fiscal year cost us roughly 2 points in revenue growth for both the full year and the quarter. Throughout the year, as another example of our commitment to our customer's success, we continued to step up our investments in R&D. Technology Solutions and total gross R&D spending for the year are $436 million, up 5% compared to $414 million in the prior year. Of these amounts, we capitalized 12% compared to 16% a year ago. Excluding the asset impairment charge, full year operating profit declined 3% to $373 million, and our operating margin rate was 11.67%. As John said, this is below our expectations and was primarily driven by the continued investment in the Horizon product line. Moving now to the balance sheet and working capital metrics. For receivables, our day sales outstanding was flat to 25 days. Our day sales inventory decreased by 3 days versus the prior year to 31 days, and our day sales and payables of 47 days was down one day from a year ago. These working capital metrics, along with our continued focus on cash generation, resulted in cash flow from operations of $2.3 billion. This is well above our original guidance range and is a great result. And when you look at our cash flow statement, you see that this is the second consecutive year in which we grew our revenues, we grew our earnings, yet we were also able to reduce our investment in working capital. Going forward, we have assumed this healthy level of cash generation will continue. As you can see that we expect our cash flow from operations to be approximately $2 billion for fiscal 2012. Capitalized spending was $388 million for the year, slightly below our original guidance of $400 million to $450 million. Moving forward to fiscal 2012 and with the addition of US Oncology, our guidance range for capital spending is between $450 million and $500 million. Let me now provide some additional context for our fiscal 2012 earnings guidance of $5.55 to $5.75 per diluted share, which excludes $0.06 of US Oncology acquisition-related expenses. John already talked about our key business objectives, and in our press release today, you will find a list of key assumptions underlying this guidance. So I won't go over these again here. But I'd like to start by offering a few thoughts on segment margins. In Distribution Solutions, we expect operating margin improvement in the mid-single-digit basis points off our fiscal 2011 operating margin of 194 basis points. When you do the math on this assumption, you will see we expect to be around the top end of our Distribution Solutions long-term operating margin goal of 150 basis points to 200 basis points. This is an outstanding accomplishment, and it speaks to the true strength and sustainability of our business model. Let me remind you that back in our fiscal year 2005, when we first provided this long-term margin goal, we had just ended that year at 141 basis points. We viewed then our long-term margin goal as aspirational, and the teams have worked hard to make steady progress. Sitting here today, we are in a position again, where we feel it is appropriate to set a new long-term margin goal. Therefore, our long-term operating margin goal in Distribution Solutions is now 200 to 250 basis points. In Technology Solutions, we expect modest improvement in FY '12 over our fiscal 2011 operating margin of 11.67%, which excludes the asset impairment charge. While we continue to make progress towards our long-term margin goal of low to mid-teens in this segment, we do not expect to reach the lower end of this range in fiscal 2012. Let me now turn to our decisions starting with our first quarter results of fiscal 2012 to report a new basis we call adjusted earnings. We have had many discussions with our shareholders and analysts in recent months about how we could make our reporting simpler and clearer. We have also had many discussions around the cash economics of our acquisitions and how to best communicate them. After considering all these discussions, we have decided to move forward with reporting our financial results on the basis of adjusted earnings. Simply defined, adjusted earnings for FY '12 is our GAAP earnings from continuing operations excluding 3 things: acquisition-related expenses, amortization of acquisition-related intangible assets and any AWP litigation reserve adjustments. We believe this non-GAAP measure of adjusted earnings represents our core operating performance, and will provide useful information when using our past financial performance to help estimate the future financial results. It should also simplify and provide more clarity to comparisons of our results to other companies and to our expectations. Last, it will match how we run the company internally. We will, of course, continue to provide all of the GAAP information we have historically provided. In thinking about our fiscal 2012 guidance and beyond, I think it is important to note that regardless of what EPS measure is used, our ability to consistently grow our earnings over the long term remains unchanged. One final and very important comment on adjusted earnings. With respect to consensus, we would ask that your models use this new adjusted earnings for fiscal 2012 estimates since this is how we will be reporting starting next quarter. We will provide historical financial information reflecting the adjusted earnings later this week, shortly following the filing of our 10-K. Let me take a minute now to walk you through our adjusted fiscal 2012 guidance range, and let me emphasize that all of John's and my comments to this point today have been made using our historical reporting practices. So I now want to walk you from these historically based numbers to our new adjusted earnings basis. As you see in our press release today, we expect amortization of acquisition-related intangible assets of approximately $0.44 per diluted share in fiscal '12. You will also see in our press release that we estimate that US Oncology acquisition-related expenses will be $0.06 per diluted share in fiscal '12. Starting with our traditionally stated fiscal 2012 guidance range of $5.55 to $5.75, which is already adjusted for the $0.06 of acquisition-related expenses, you then add back the $0.44 for the amortization of acquisition-related intangible assets. This gets you to our adjusted fiscal 2012 guidance range of $5.99 to $6.19. So what does this new adjusted earnings mean for the segment guidance we have discussed up until this point today? In Distribution Solutions, our expectation for operating margin in fiscal '12 on an adjusted basis goes up a few basis points to high single digits basis points improvement, which we believe better reflects the operating performance of that business. This margin growth expectation is off an adjusted fiscal 2011 segment operating margin of 204 basis points. Given these numbers, our new long-term operating goal of 202 to 250 basis points still very much applies. In Technology Solutions, the impact of adjusting for the amortization of acquisition-related intangible assets added 194 basis points to the operating margin in fiscal 2011 taking it to 13.61%. As a result, we are revising our long-term operating margin goal in this segment from low- to mid-teens basis points to an adjusted goal of mid-teens. And for fiscal 2012, on this basis, we would expect to be within the low end of this range. Last, in terms of quarterly EPS, and you should know we do not provide quarterly EPS guidance due to the variability and the timing of certain items in our businesses. However, at this moment, we can directionally estimate that the June quarter of fiscal 2012 will be up modestly compared to the prior year once you adjust last year's first quarter to take out the benefit of the $51 million positive antitrust settlement. And again this year, earnings will be weighted towards the back half, and the fourth quarter will be exceptionally strong. In summary, McKesson delivered another year of solid financial results, and we feel we are well-positioned heading into fiscal 2012. Thanks, and with that, I'll turn the call over to the operator for your questions. [Operator Instructions] Operator?