James Beer
Analyst · Evercore ISI
Thank you, John and good afternoon everyone. As John discussed earlier, we are pleased by our strong results in the fourth quarter. Adjusted EPS, excluding unusual items, was $3.42 per diluted share which gives us a solid momentum heading into fiscal 2018. I also want to highlight our record operating cash flow in fiscal '17, which allowed us to return more $2.5 billion in cash to our shareholders during the past year. Today, I will review our fiscal 2017 results and introduce our fiscal 2018 guidance range. Before I discuss our fiscal 2018 outlook, I will spend some time walking you through the changes to our definition of adjusted earnings. Now, let’s move to our 2017 results. As I have a lot of information to cover today and we want to provide ample time for Q&A following my remarks, I will primarily focus on our full year fiscal 2017 results. First, our consolidated results. As a reminder, the fourth quarter and full year revenue and operating results of MTS were impacted by the creation of the Change Healthcare joint venture, as announced on March 2nd, to which McKesson contributed the majority of its MTS businesses. McKesson will account for its equity share of Change Healthcare’s earnings on a one-month lag. Therefore, for the month of March, McKesson’s consolidated income statement contained neither the results of the MTS contributed businesses, nor any equity earnings from the new company. Consolidated revenues for the full-year increased 5% in constant currency versus the prior period, primarily driven by market growth and acquisitions. Full year adjusted gross profit, excluding unusual items, was down 2% in constant currency year-over-year, driven by increased competitive pricing in our independent pharmacy business and weaker pharmaceutical manufacturer pricing trends, partially offset by contributions from acquisition closed in fiscal 2017, antitrust legal settlements, greater global procurement benefits and organic growth. Full year adjusted operating expenses, excluding unusual items, increased 2% in constant currency driven by acquisitions closed in fiscal 2017, partially offset by savings from the cost alignment plan and ongoing cost management efforts. Adjusted other income was $101 million for the year, an increase of 63% in constant currency, driven primarily by our equity investment in [indiscernible], a pharmacy operator in the Netherlands. Interest expense of $308 million decreased 13% in constant currency for the year consistent with our expectations. Now, moving to taxes. Our adjusted tax rate, excluding cost alignment plan charges and the impact to the EIS goodwill impairment charge taken in the second quarter, was 22.6% for the year, driven by the beneficial impact of the on-shoring of our MTS intellectual property in the third quarter, our mix of income and discreet tax benefits. Our income attributable to non-controlling interest or NCI was $83 million for the year, an increase of 60% in constant currency. The increase in NCI was primarily driven by Claris 1, the joint sourcing entity that we have created with Walmart, and the acquisition of Vantage Oncology. Our adjusted net income from continuing operations, excluding unusual items, totaled $2.9 billion. Our full year adjusted EPS was $11.61 per diluted share. Our adjusted EPS, excluding unusual items, was $12.91 per diluted share. During the year, we recorded $0.04 charge related to the cost alignment plan and in the second quarter we recorded a non-cash pretax goodwill impairment charge of $1.26 related to our EIS business. Wrapping up our consolidated results, during the fourth quarter, we completed share repurchases of common stock totaling $250 million, bringing our total share repurchases in fiscal 2017 to $2.3 billion. As a result of share repurchase activity, particularly in late fiscal 2016 and during fiscal 2017, our full year diluted weighted average shares outstanding decreased by 4% year-over-year to $223 million. Let's now turn to the segment results. Distribution Solutions segment constant currency revenues of $197.1 million were up 5% year-over-year. North America pharmaceutical distribution and services revenues increased 4% in constant currency, driven by market growth and acquisitions, partially offset by brand to generic conversions. International pharmaceutical distribution and services revenues were $26 billion for the year on a constant currency basis, up 11%, driven by acquisitions and market growth. Revenues were impacted by approximately $1.2 billion in unfavorable currency rate movements. Moving now to the Medical-Surgical business, revenues were up 3% for the year, driven by the market growth and acquisition. Distribution Solutions adjusted growth profit, excluding unusual items, was down 2% on a constant currency basis for the year, driven by competition in our independent pharmacy business and weaker pharmaceutical manufacturer pricing, partially offset by contributions from acquisitions closed in fiscal 2017 antitrust legal settlements, greater global procurement benefits and organic growth. Distribution Solutions segment adjusted operating expenses, excluding unusual items, increased 6% on a constant currency basis for the year. Segment operating expenses reflect an increase related to recently completed acquisitions, partially offset by savings from the cost alignment plans and ongoing cost reduction actions. When removing the impact of acquisitions, adjusted operating expenses, excluding unusual items, decreased year-over-year. Distribution Solutions segment adjusted operating profit, excluding unusual items, was down 11% in constant currency year-over-year at $3.9 billion. The segment adjusted operating margin rate, excluding unusual items, was 200 basis points on a constant currency basis, a decrease of 35 basis points, driven by the same factors as previously discussed. Now, moving to Technology Solutions. As a remainder, our MTS segment for fiscal '17 reflects only 11 months of results for those businesses that were contributed to change healthcare. Revenues decreased 9% for the year to $2.6 billion on a constant currency basis. Adjusted segment gross profit, excluding unusual items, was down 5% on a constant currency basis. Adjusted segment operating expenses, excluding unusual items, decreased 11% in constant currency from the prior year. Despite realizing only 11 months of results from the contributed MTS businesses, adjusted segment operating profit, excluding unusual items, increased 4% in constant currency, resulting in an adjusted operating margin rate of 22.33%, up 295 basis points versus the prior year. We're very pleased with the performance of the Technology Solutions segment in fiscal 2017 as the team works simultaneously to execute their business plans and close the Change Healthcare transaction. I'll now review our balance sheet metrics. As you heard me discuss before, each of our working capital metrics can be significantly impacted by timing, including which day of the week marks the close of a given quarter. For receivables, our day sales outstanding decreased one day to 27 days. Our day sales in inventory decreased two days from the prior year to 30 days. And our day sales in payables increased two days from the prior year to 61 days. We ended the quarter with a cash balance of $2.8 billion with approximately $2.3 billion held offshore. For the year, McKesson paid $4.2 billion on acquisitions, repaid approximately $1.6 billion in long term debt, spent $562 million on internal capital investments and paid $253 million in dividends. In addition, McKesson repurchased approximately $2.3 billion in common stock in fiscal 2017 and we now have $2.7 billion remaining on our share repurchase authorization. In fiscal '17, McKesson generated $4.7 billion in cash flow from operations, inclusive of the $256 million in cash outflows related to the cost alignment plan and our settlement with the DEA and DoJ. The year-over-year growth of approximately 29% was primarily driven by several working capital initiatives across our U.S. businesses and lower cash taxes. To wrap up my fiscal 2017 comments, while McKesson face significant challenges during the year, I'm pleased with how we were able to manage through adversity, drive strong cash flow and end the year in a solid financial position. Now before I get to our fiscal 2018 outlook, let me take a moment to discuss the revision to our definition of adjusted earnings. After careful consideration, we have made the decision to revise our definition of adjusted earnings effective with our fiscal '18 outlook. We believe this revision will allow us to provide better clarity on our underlying operating performance as it closely aligns with both how we internally manage the enterprise and the definition used by others in our industry. Let me walk you through the changes at a high level. First, the revised definition retains the amortization of acquisition related intangible, LIFO-inventory related charges or credits and acquisition related expenses and adjustments; although, this category has been expanded to include certain fair value adjustments. An example of a fair value adjustment is the expected non-cash deferred revenue haircut in fiscal '18, resulting from the Change Healthcare transaction. Second, the revised definition will now adjust for gains from antitrust legal settlements, restructuring charges and other adjustments, which will include impairments, gains or losses on the disposal of businesses or assets and the full month standalone category of claim and litigation charges or credits. The restructuring charges that will be excluded are represented by programs such as the cost alignment plan or other restructuring programs that are considered significant. And the other adjustments category will exclude items such as the EIS goodwill impairment charge we took in the second quarter and gains from sales of businesses, such as the two differences we sold in the fiscal 2016. Again, these adjustments are intended to provide investors a better view of the underlying operating performance at McKesson. I encourage you to review the second 8-K that we filed today for the full description of each item included in our revised adjusted earnings definition, as well as the re-cost of our fiscal 2017 results, utilizing this revised definition of adjusted earnings. Before I wrap up my comments on adjusted earnings, I want to confirm that as you would expect we will continue to provide all the GAAP information that we have historically provided, including the reconciliation of our adjusted earnings to our GAAP earnings. Now, let me provide you with the details of our fiscal 2017 results on this revised basis. In order for you to drive the year-over-year performance we expect in fiscal 2018; then I will provide details on our fiscal 2018 outlook. I will point you to slide 14 of the supplemental presentation, as it provides a fiscal 2017 EPS walk, but includes reconciliation from adjusted earnings excluding unusual items of $12.91 per diluted share to our revised adjusted earnings. From the $12.91 per diluted share, we will now exclude the benefit of $144 million or $0.39 per diluted share in antitrust supplements recorded in fiscal 2017, and $15 million or $0.04 per diluted share in gains on asset dispositions. We will also exclude two headwinds; first, $10 million or $0.03 per diluted share in fair-value adjustments; and second, $10 million or $0.03 per diluted share in restructuring charges. These adjustments result in revised adjusted earnings of $12.54 per diluted share for fiscal '17. Now, turning to our fiscal 2018 outlook. In fiscal 2018, McKesson expects adjusted earnings per diluted share of $11.75 to $12.45. This guidance range reflects a decrease of 6% to approximately flat adjusted earnings year-over-year. To be clear, the fiscal 2018 outlook excludes the negative impact of the non-cash deferred revenue hiccup from the Change Healthcare transaction, which is now expected to be approximately $200 million, as it will be excluded from adjusted earnings based on our revised definition. In lieu of outlining each of the assumptions underpinning our fiscal 2018 outlook, I will refer you to the list of the key assumptions included in the press release we issued today. Instead I will walk you through the key items included in our outlook. First, I’ll start with the overall market environment. We expect Distribution Solutions revenues, which are primarily derived from North America, to grow in the mid-single digits year-over-year, driven by market growth and recent acquisitions. In the U.S. market, branded pharmaceutical manufacturer prices are tuned to increase by a mid-single digit percentage in fiscal 2018. This is a more conservative assumption than the results from fiscal '17. As we do not make these pricing decisions and because there may be variability in the timing, frequency and magnitude of pricing actions taken by manufacturers, we believe our assumption of mid-single digit price increases is prudent. On the generics side, we expect a nominal contribution from generic pharmaceuticals with increase in price in fiscal 2018, consistent with what we experienced in fiscal '17. We also expect the profit contribution from the launch of new oral generic pharmaceuticals in the U.S. market to be nominal year-over-year. As John mentioned, our overall basket of generic pharmaceuticals generally declines in price overtime, reflecting competition, supply, the maturity of launched products, and outsourcing efforts. And for the sell side pricing environment, we see the marketplace was competitive or with less pricing variability, consistent with our remarks on our last earnings call in January. Moving onto Rite Aid, as mentioned in our press release, our guidance range assumes a full year revenue contribution from Rite Aid of approximately $13 billion, and an estimated annual adjusted earnings per share contribution of between $0.20 and $0.40. Given our understanding of where things stand today with the pending merger agreement, we feel confident that we would not see volumes transition in this calendar year. If Rite Aid’s volume were to transition in early calendar 2018, this will only have a small impact on our FY18 adjusted earnings per diluted share; although, we would expect a material one-time transition impact to our cash flow, driven by the mix of our business with Rite Aid. It is worth noting that our ongoing domestic and international sourcing scale is such that the potential loss of Rite Aid's volume was not meaningfully hold up our sourcing economics with manufacturers. Now, let's move to our expanded sourcing agreement with Walmart and the mechanics of Claris 1. We announced our joint souring relationship with Walmart in May 2016. Since that announcement, McKesson and Walmart have worked to build out the new sourcing organization, Claris 1. This new organization first, focused on harmonizing pricing across our respective sourcing arrangement. This was completed late in fiscal 2017. Walmart is likely realizing the benefits from this initiative, and we are now progressing on discussions with manufacturers based on our joint volumes from which we expect to share additional synergies. That being said, because McKesson has control of Claris 1, we consolidate the results of the entity. You will see the full results of Claris 1 in our consolidated P&L, including revenues, gross profit, operating expense and operating profit. We then remove Walmart’s portion of Claris 1 earnings via the non-controlling interest line, which appears below net income in our P&L. However, it is important to note that the economics from Claris 1 included in the NCI line represents only a portion of the overall value of the expanded relationship with Walmart, as a majority of the joint sourcing value is realized in the cost of goods sold line. This COGS value is directly recognized in the accounts of McKesson and Walmart, and is not a part of the Claris 1 accounts. The non-controlling interest line now removes three items from our net income; Walmart share of Claris 1's earnings; the retail dividend; and partner income associated with other smaller non-wholly owned subsidiaries. We expect our income from non-controlling interest to increase approximately 200% from fiscal 2017. Now moving to our international segment. We expect percentage revenue growth in the mid-single digits on a constant currency basis. In addition, we expect the international business to be impacted by additional UK reimbursement cuts; although, at present, the announced incremental cuts that will impact fiscal 2018 are materially smaller than what we experienced in fiscal '17. We will keep you up-to-date on this as the year unfolds. Based on the assumptions outlined, we expect our Distribution Solutions adjusted operating margin to be between 198 and 208 basis points. The way to think about our fiscal 2018 adjusted operating margin is that our adjusted operating profit will benefit from our organic growth, the impact of FY17 acquisitions and the profits of our joint venture partners, such as Walmart in the case of Claris 1, which have consolidated in our results in accordance with GAAP. The margin rate is further aided by our revised addition of adjusted earnings and the inclusion of RelayHealth Pharmacy. Partially offsetting these positive items on margin rate will be impacted by our growing mix of higher priced specialty pharmaceuticals, assumed weaker pharmaceutical manufacturer pricing trends and the lapping effect of increased competitive sell side pricing. Moving now to McKesson’s equity investment in Change Healthcare and other MTS considerations. We expect the adjusted equity earnings contribution from Change Healthcare to be between $370 million to $430 million, which reflects our 70% ownership. To be clear, we’re assuming that our equity interest in Change Healthcare will not be diluted by the impact of a potential IPO. The MTS segment also reflects the contribution from our EIS business, which is expected to generate full year revenues of between approximately $450 million and $500 million, has an adjusted operating margin rate in the single digit range. We continue to make progress on reviewing these strategic alternatives for this business. Now moving to corporate expenses, taxes and our share count. Corporate expenses are expected to be between approximately $435 million and $465 million in fiscal 2018, primarily driven by our technology investments and incentive compensation programs being reset to target expectations. The guidance range assumes a full year adjusted tax rate of approximately 27%, which may vary from quarter-to-quarter. This rate is reflective of the ongoing beneficial impact of an inter-company sale of software in the third quarter of fiscal 2017. Our mix business and the impact of minority interest earnings that are included in profit before tax, but are not taxable to McKesson. We expect the weighted average diluted shares for fiscal 2018 to be $213 million, which reflects the impact of share repurchase activity completed in fiscal 2017. In addition, we expect a negative foreign currency impact of up to $0.05 in fiscal 2018. Switching to cash flow, our operating cash flow is expected to decline by approximately 10% relative to the prior year. This decline is primarily driven by the loss of the majority of MTS' cash flow following the creation of Change Healthcare, as well as very strong cash generation at the end of fiscal 2017. And last, as you think about the quarterly progression of our results in fiscal '18, we expect our results to be waited to the second half of the year, primarily driven by the anticipated strength of fourth quarter results, given the seasonality of branded manufacturer pharmaceutical price increases. And for the first half of fiscal '18, we expect the second quarter will be stronger than the first quarter. Thank you. And with that, I will turn the call over to the operator for your questions. In the interest of time, I ask that you limit yourself to just one question to allow others an opportunity to participate. Melisa?