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Transcript
OP
Operator
Operator
Good morning, and welcome to Mondelez International's third quarter 2015 earnings conference call. Today's call is scheduled to last about one hour, including remarks by Mondelez management and the question and answer session. I'd now like to turn the call over to Mr. Dexter Congbalay, Vice President, Investor Relations, for Mondelez International. Please go ahead, sir.
Good morning, and thanks for joining us. With me are Irene Rosenfeld, our Chairman and CEO, and Brian Gladden, our CFO. Earlier today, we sent out our earnings release and today's slides, which are available on our website, MondelezInternational.com. As you know, during this call, we'll make forward-looking statements about the company's performance. These statements are based on how we see things today. Actual results may differ materially due to risks and uncertainties. Please refer to the Cautionary Statements and Risk Factors contained in our 10-K and 10-Q filings for more details on our forward-looking statements. Some of today's prepared remarks include non-GAAP financial measures. You can find the GAAP-to-non-GAAP reconciliations within our earnings release and at the back of the slide presentation. With that, I'll now turn the call over to Irene. Irene B. Rosenfeld - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: Thanks, Dexter. Good morning. The third quarter macroenvironment remained challenging. But we continued to drive top-tier margin expansion while delivering solid organic revenue growth. Specifically, organic revenue grew 3.7%, led by our pricing actions to recover commodity- and currency-driven input costs, primarily in high-inflation markets. Adjusted gross margin increased 180 basis points to 39.1%, driven by strong net productivity and the early benefits of improvements in our supply chain. We expanded adjusted operating income margin by 170 basis points to 14.1% while significantly increasing advertising and consumer support. Adjusted EPS was $0.42, flat versus prior year on a constant-currency basis. We delivered strong operating gains. However, as expected, these gains were offset by below-the-line items, including dilution related to the creation of our coffee joint venture, as well as higher taxes. Our performance in the third quarter reflects continued progress in executing our transformation agenda. We further focused our portfolio. In July, we closed on the joint venture…
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Operator
Operator
Thank you. Our first question comes from the line of Andrew Lazar of Barclays.
AI
Andrew Lazar - Barclays Capital, Inc.
Analyst · Barclays
– everybody.
Irene B. Rosenfeld - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: Hey, Andrew.
Brian T. Gladden - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Hey, Andrew.
AI
Andrew Lazar - Barclays Capital, Inc.
Analyst · Barclays
Two questions for me if I could. First off, with margins continuing to come through as you expect, seems like the key question will be around really the mix between volume and price. And I guess I thought we'd at least start to see volume get sequentially better for the company, particularly with price gaps starting to narrow. But volume got a bit weaker sequentially, and we got more price than we'd modeled. And I guess European volume was still pretty weak despite a very easy year-ago comp. So maybe first could you just update us on the – again, a little bit more color on the price gap situation in Europe chocolate, and if you need to reassess the strategy there, like perhaps what you did in the U.K. Or have you seen enough movement in pricing in earnest that you kind of feel like you're going to see these price gaps narrow for real?
Irene B. Rosenfeld - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: Yeah, Andrew, there's no question we are seeing our price gaps narrow, as we had expected. And as we said in our Q2 call, we do expect vol/mix to improve sequentially in the second half. Our underlying business is performing quite well. We're seeing some very encouraging signs as we look at chocolate in the EU, we look at biscuits in North America, we look at chocolate in India, for example. The factor that really impacted Q3 – there's really two. The first is that we did have to take some additional pricing in markets like Brazil and Russia in response to the significant devaluations of their currencies. And that just created another elasticity impact, which just put a little bit more pressure – again, in the near term – on vol/mix. And then the second is just, for the luck of the draw, we had a big heat wave this summer in Continental Europe, and that did have an impact on our chocolate business, so that as we were starting to see those gaps close and make the necessary investments, the impact of those investments just took a little bit longer than we anticipated. Net-net, we would expect that we should see continued revenue growth and share improvement as we make the investments focused in the key areas I've described and as we exit the year.
AI
Andrew Lazar - Barclays Capital, Inc.
Analyst · Barclays
Great. Okay, thank you for that. And then, Brian, with respect to some of the supply chain work that you're doing, is there a way to give us, directionally even, a sense of how much that contributed to 3Q gross margins – and I guess more importantly how that now starts to build as we go forward into 2016?
Brian T. Gladden - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Yeah, Andrew, as we've been saying, it clearly is still early days on the supply chain reinvention work and the impact of the Lines of the Future. I would say the third quarter, we've begun to see some of that, but the majority of the – we talked about 3%-plus net productivity on COGS in the quarter. The majority of that's still driven by base productivity programs. So this is still one where I think, as we've been saying, the majority of the supply chain benefits and all the Lines of the Future that we've been investing in, as you work your way through startup costs and all the things that go with bringing those lines up, it does take some time, and it's really going to be a 2016 dynamic where you start to see some of those benefits.
AI
Andrew Lazar - Barclays Capital, Inc.
Analyst · Barclays
Great. Thank you.
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Operator
Operator
Our next question comes from the line of Robert Moskow of Credit Suisse. Robert Moskow - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker): Hi, thank you. This will just be kind of a follow-up to Andrew's question. When I looked at Nestle's results, I thought I saw that they had chosen to not price in line with currency in chocolate in Brazil. And given how big of a competitor they are in Latin American markets in general, I was just wondering if this latest price increase that you took, is that one of the things that you might have to reassess? And are there any other, I guess any other Latin American markets where you see the same dynamic? Irene B. Rosenfeld - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: Well, first of all, Rob, I would say that our performance in Brazil has been quite strong in the face of some really significant macroeconomic challenges. We've actually grown or held share in all of our categories there. So, as we think about the challenges in chocolate, in many respects, 40% of our chocolate business is in Europe, and I've been clear about what some of the issues were there. Nestle did say in their call, as you said, that they did not price, but the facts are, as you start to look at individual SKUs, we are seeing movement. So we continue to monitor each of these key categories in our key markets very carefully, and if we need to continue to supplement some of our investments in these markets, as we did in the U.K. and to some extent in Germany, we will continue to do that. But for now Brazil actually has held up remarkably well, growing in the low to mid-single digits in the face of some very significant…
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Operator
Operator
Our next question comes from the line of Chris Growe of Stifel. Christopher R. Growe - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.: Hi. Good morning. Brian T. Gladden - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Good morning, Chris. Christopher R. Growe - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.: Hi. Just two quick questions, if I could, please. First would be, just to understand, the incremental investment in A&C has been pretty significant really all through the year. I think you made a comment, Irene, about hitting 8.5% of sales. I had been thinking more like 9%-plus, in terms of where you were headed for. Does that mean you were short this quarter? Or is 8.5% more the right number for where you want to be in terms of A&C investment here in 2015? Irene B. Rosenfeld - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: No, actually, as we've said, Chris, we're going to make steady investments in A&C, as we see the good returns coming from those investments. We're up significantly versus prior year, and we will be for the full year. But we have said that our target for the long term is approximately 10% of revenue, and slowly but surely we're making our way to those levels. But the good news is, we are starting to already see the impact of the investments as a means of backstopping pricing and continuing to build our brand equity. So it's up quite significantly. It will continue to grow, as we have the affordability and as we see strong returns. Brian T. Gladden - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: And, Chris, a lot of discipline around tracking ROI around these incremental investments. And some of them, obviously, are going to work and deliver great returns, and some of them that aren't, we're…
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Operator
Operator
Our next question comes from the line of Bryan Spillane of Bank of America.
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Bryan D. Spillane - Bank of America Merrill Lynch
Analyst · Bryan Spillane of Bank of America
Hi, good morning, everyone.
Brian T. Gladden - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Good morning, Bryan.
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Bryan D. Spillane - Bank of America Merrill Lynch
Analyst · Bryan Spillane of Bank of America
Had just a question on Mark Clouse's new role as Chief Commercial Officer. And just wanted a little bit more color on two areas. One is, does it also imply or come with the creation of, like, a global sales force? Or will Mark be interacting with sales forces at the regional level? And then, second, one of the things that is cited in the press release is a focus on day-to-day P&L decision-making, and I guess I kind of read that as maybe a sharper focus on trade promotion spending and a way to kind of make it more efficient. So is that a correct read on one of the sort of key areas that you expect to see some focus on?
Irene B. Rosenfeld - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: Absolutely, Bryan. That's exactly the way to read it. This is not about a global sales consolidation. We believe very strongly that the right aggregation needs to be at the regional level, but think of it more as a center of excellence, the opportunity to take best practices from one market to another. So in addition to making sure that the terrific growth agenda that Mark and his team laid out is now executed through our regions, we do see additional opportunities to capture best practices in terms of execution at point of sale, as well as building our capabilities in areas like trade optimization, as you suggest. So all of those things, I believe, will just help to further strengthen what has been very strong commercial execution.
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Bryan D. Spillane - Bank of America Merrill Lynch
Analyst · Bryan Spillane of Bank of America
And in terms of the opportunity within trade, your trade spend, is it a major opportunity just to improve the efficiency there?
Irene B. Rosenfeld - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: We do see that as a big opportunity, and I think you'll be hearing more about that as time goes on. Obviously, the challenge in any of those decisions is getting the right balance between revenue and trade spending. Our goal is to try to find a way to make the dollars we're spending work harder for us. But that is a focus, and we do see that as an opportunity.
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Bryan D. Spillane - Bank of America Merrill Lynch
Analyst · Bryan Spillane of Bank of America
Okay. Thank you.
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Operator
Operator
Our next question comes from the line of Eric Katzman of Deutsche Bank.
EI
Eric R. Katzman - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.
Analyst · Eric Katzman of Deutsche Bank
Good morning.
Irene B. Rosenfeld - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: Hey, Eric.
Brian T. Gladden - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Hey, Eric.
EI
Eric R. Katzman - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.
Analyst · Eric Katzman of Deutsche Bank
I just have a couple of questions. I guess first, Brian, on the JV, it sounded like you – were you signaling that that might be more dilutive than you had initially forecast based on the – what sounds like a little bit of trade-loading in that business, or other developments?
Brian T. Gladden - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: We're not really updating a view for ongoing dilution or accretion. We're only three months into the JV. We don't really have any new information that would lead us to have a different view on where we see that over a long period of time. We didn't really expect much benefit from the JV as you look at the first couple quarters here. I think we do expect that their performance will improve into the fourth quarter, I'd say modestly, and then – and we move into 2016, obviously quite a bit as they execute on the integration and synergy plans. So, yeah, I mean, there clearly were specific actions that we took, both partners, heading into the close of the joint venture that moved more inventory into the trade. That was intentional to really create a buffer and allow us to feel confident that we could manage through the startup of the new systems and order management and all that went with that, the closing process. But nothing new, Eric, in terms of our view of the opportunity here and the accretion dilution at this point.
EI
Eric R. Katzman - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.
Analyst · Eric Katzman of Deutsche Bank
Okay. Thanks for that. And then I guess both to Irene and to you, Brian: I guess I'm not exactly – I guess I'm just a little bit concerned about the volume weakness in the quarter. I mean, it's hard from the outside to figure all this out, but you're spending a ton of capital to put in these highly efficient lines. And these efficient lines, I assume the volume that's going – that efficiency is a function of the volume that's going through them. And so to the extent that you have other, I guess, cost savings, your decision to price against currency results in weaker volume. It doesn't look like the A&C had a big impact or a positive impact in the quarter. So I guess I'm not really sure what the question is. But I guess I'm a little bit concerned that the decision on FX-related price versus volume weakness makes this whole transformation less powerful because of the fixed-cost absorption not being there. Or maybe you just kind of walk me through why that's not a concern. Irene B. Rosenfeld - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: Yeah, I guess, Eric, it's a fair question. But I would tell you that the impact on our volume is uppermost in our mind. But we constantly are evaluating the opportunity to make sure that the margins of these various franchises are attractive enough to warrant the investment, while recognizing that we do create some dislocation. We are leading pricing in most of these markets, and in markets like Russia, for example, we priced three times in the course of this year in response to the significant and rapid devaluation of the ruble. So I feel very good that we are managing to get our margins and protect our margins…
EI
Eric R. Katzman - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.
Analyst · Eric Katzman of Deutsche Bank
Okay. Thank you. Pass it on.
OP
Operator
Operator
Our next question comes from the line of Matthew Grainger of Morgan Stanley. Matthew C. Grainger - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC: Hi. Good morning. Thanks. Brian T. Gladden - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Hey, Matthew. Matthew C. Grainger - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC: Just two questions. One, just to focus on the EEMEA region. You're obviously taking more pricing and you were able to protect profit dollars year on year this quarter. Just curious if you can give us any guidance of how we should think about your objectives going forward over the next several quarters, given currency macro pressure? Are you going to look to continue to manage toward protecting profit dollars or margins? And then as you move toward a period of fairly easy margin comparisons, is it feasible to expect margins to maybe remain at the kind of low double-digit levels we've seen over the past six months? Irene B. Rosenfeld - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: So I guess the answer to the first question, Matthew, is that we are seeing the margins improve in response to our pricing actions. We are monitoring the balance very carefully. And as we've said a couple of times, the reaction that we're getting to these pricing actions is pretty much in line with our elasticity assumptions. Brian T. Gladden - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Yeah, I think it's a volatile market, there's no question. So, I mean, as the year has played out, it's played out differently than I think we expected. In some cases we're having to make real-time, in-quarter decisions on pricing. But the agenda, in terms of getting supply chain in the right place, in terms of getting the right products in the market, I mean, those are…
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Operator
Operator
Our next question comes from the line of Alexia Howard of Bernstein.
Alexia J. Howard - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC: Good morning, everyone.
Irene B. Rosenfeld - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: Hey, Alexia.
Brian T. Gladden - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Hey, Alexia.
Alexia J. Howard - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC: Hi there. We've been hearing a little bit about some organizational changes and head count rationalization that may have been put in place over the last few months. Can you comment on the kind of structural changes that you might have put in place? And maybe the impact it may have on head count. I mean, we'll see that in the 10-K when it's published next year. Any order of magnitude would be very helpful. Thank you.
Brian T. Gladden - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Yeah, Alexia. Look, I think these are the initiatives we've been talking about for a while when you think about overhead reductions, when you think about what we're doing with ZBB. I mean, the two big ones that we've spent time talking about, clearly a shared services model that we even mentioned in the comments today, where we're moving a significant proportion of our backroom processes around finance and HR and some other functions to outsourced partners in most cases. But that's causing significant changes in our org model and disruption around the world. But that's something that we've spent a lot of time working through a process to execute that, and we feel good about really how that's going. The second one is really moving to the category model, and that's something that we've been doing over the last, frankly, couple years. And really changing the structure of how we run the businesses at the region level and in the countries. So that is work that's been going on and, frankly, will continue as we optimize around a category-driven model. Those are the two big ones, and not really providing a lot more detail in terms of specific actions that go behind that.
Alexia J. Howard - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC: Okay, thank you very much. I'll pass it on.
Brian T. Gladden - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Thanks, Alexia.
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Operator
Operator
Our next question comes from the line of David Driscoll of Citigroup.
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David C. Driscoll - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.
Analyst · David Driscoll of Citigroup
Great. Thank you and good morning.
Brian T. Gladden - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Hey, David.
DI
David C. Driscoll - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.
Analyst · David Driscoll of Citigroup
Brian, I think the guidance means that the fourth quarter operating margin is something similar to the third quarter. So maybe just slightly above that 14%, if my updated model here is done correctly and the quick math. And if that's right, then the real question is that, for 2016, you guys reiterated this 15% to 16% margin. I mean, we are here in October, and so I feel like 2016 is a stone's throw away. To go to the top end of that, to go to 16%, I mean, that's almost like 200 basis points – or rounding here – 200 basis points of improvement to get to that top end. That seems like quite a lot. At this point, kind of given a slow backdrop, Irene, a clear desire by the company to want to keep investing in the business in these white spaces around the world, doesn't that top end seem like a stretch at this point? Is that fair? Or are there some comments that you can provide here?
Brian T. Gladden - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Yeah, appreciate the question, David. We're obviously not going to provide an outlook for next year at this point. I would tell you your math makes sense as you think about the fourth quarter. I would tell you it's a prudent view of how we think about the fourth quarter, given the volatility that we see in the business, and some of the markets as we've called out. But it also allows us to have some flexibility around what levels we want to reinvest, and add additional A&C to the business, to get that balance between the top line and bottom line, and get some growth back. So we feel great about the progress with supply chain and shared services, as being key elements that are going to provide additional upside as we head into next year. We're at a point where we've seen pretty significant improvement. If you look at year-to-date margin improvements, it gives us confidence that that sort of a jump is reachable. So we're building on the momentum we have this year, and we'll update you on how we think about 2016 as we close out the year.
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David C. Driscoll - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.
Analyst · David Driscoll of Citigroup
Okay. Thank you.
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Operator
Operator
We have time for one more question. Our final question will come from the line of Kenneth Zaslow of BMO Capital Markets.
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Kenneth B. Zaslow - BMO Capital Markets
Analyst · BMO Capital Markets
Hey, good morning, everyone. Just finishing up on a couple of quick questions. One is Salinas; can you give us an update on that? And how are the other projects of the reconfiguration going in certain areas, Bahrain and around the world?
Irene B. Rosenfeld - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: Yeah. So far so good. We announced a $130 million investment last quarter in Salinas. It is one of the key drivers of our improvement in North American margins over time. And so far so good. So, as we said, most of our supply chain investments, as we think about the progress we're making in Bahrain, in China, in Europe, all around the world, we're making some very good progress on the investments that we've made, and they'll be a key driver – as Brian just said, it'll be a key driver of our performance as we go into 2016, and then into 2017-2018.
KM
Kenneth B. Zaslow - BMO Capital Markets
Analyst · BMO Capital Markets
And my final question is, on inventory management, I know you guys have changed it over the last couple years. Can you give a little bit more in-depth idea of what has actually changed? Because this seems to be a problem with many other companies, and you guys have obviously navigated quite successfully over the last year, year and a half. And I was just trying to figure out what makes you guys more successful at this? What has changed?
Irene B. Rosenfeld - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: Well, I think, Ken, we learned our lesson the hard way. And the facts are, we're not doing anything herculean. We're simply making sure we have the data, and we are looking at it at all levels of the company on a regular basis. And I think what we discovered in markets like China, for example, it's a fairly complex supply chain, and therefore keeping our eye on the pulse of the business is critically important. I referenced Brazil and Russia in my remarks because they're volatile, and it's imperative that we monitor our inventory situation to make sure that we're keeping track of demand. So it's really not rocket science, but I have great confidence that as we continue to experience volatility in this challenging macroenvironment, that we're well-positioned to manage our businesses and continue to deliver our commitments.
Brian T. Gladden - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: We've made investments in IT tools and connectivity with our channel partners and trade partners to give us that real-time visibility, which is something we haven't had, so that's been an important addition to the process.
KM
Kenneth B. Zaslow - BMO Capital Markets
Analyst · BMO Capital Markets
Great. I appreciate it. Thank you, guys.
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Operator
Operator
That was our final question. I would now like to turn the floor back over to management for any additional or closing remarks.
Hi, this is Dexter. Thanks for everybody for joining. We'll be available for questions later on through the day. And, again, thank you for joining the call.