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Mondelez International, Inc. (MDLZ)

Q1 2016 Earnings Call· Wed, Apr 27, 2016

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning and welcome to Mondelez International First Quarter 2016 Earnings Conference Call. Today's call is scheduled to last about one hour, including remarks by Mondelez management and the question-and-answer session. I'd now like to turn the call over to Mr. Dexter Congbalay, Vice President Investor Relations for Mondelez International. Please go ahead, sir.

Dexter Congbalay - Vice President-Investor Relations

Management

Good morning and thanks for joining us. With me are Irene Rosenfeld, our Chairman and CEO and Brian Gladden, our CFO. Earlier today, we sent out our earnings release and today's slides, which are available on our website, mondelezinternational.com. As you know, during this call, we'll make forward-looking statements about the company's performance. These statements are based on how we see things today. Actual results may differ materially due to risks and uncertainties. Please refer to the cautionary statements and risk factors contained in our 10-K and 10-Q filings for more details on our forward-looking statements. Excuse me. Some of today's prepared remarks include non-GAAP financial measures. You can find the GAAP to non-GAAP reconciliations within our earnings release and at the back of the slide presentation. With that, I'll now turn the call over to Irene. Irene B. Rosenfeld - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: Thanks, Dexter. Good morning. We had a good start to the year. We continued to drive top-tier margin expansion and earnings growth, while stepping up organic revenue growth. Specifically, organic net revenue grew more than 2%, as we drove our Power Brands, stepped up volume mix in developed markets, raised prices again to recover currency-driven input costs in emerging markets, and continued to eliminate less profitable brands and lower return spending. We expanded adjusted gross profit margin by 170 basis points to 39.7% by driving strong net productivity. Adjusted operating income margin expanded 240 basis points to 15.1%, as we continued to aggressively reduce overheads, while significantly stepping up A&C support. And finally, adjusted EPS was $0.48, up 31% on a constant-currency basis, driven by operating gains. Let's take a closer look at the details. Organic revenue in Q1 grew just over 2%, in line with our annual guidance. Importantly, the impact from our…

Operator

Operator

Your first question comes from the line of Chris Growe with Stifel. Christopher Growe - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.: Hi, good morning. Brian T. Gladden - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Hi, Chris. Christopher Growe - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.: Hi. Thank you for the question. I just wanted to ask, and I think I heard a number of points that are worth mentioning, but in terms of the strong first-quarter performance, both EPS margin and even revenue growth, as we think about the full-year guidance, I think I heard some – a little bit of caution on Brazil, on Russia, on China, as well as some of the timing of overhead spending that can be moving margin around a bit. But I guess I wanted to understand the rationale for holding guidance where it is, and maybe just to answer my own question with those different points there, but are those the ones that are kind of keeping you from being more aggressive with the full-year outlook, in particular on the margin side? Brian T. Gladden - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Yeah, Chris, I think – look, we're very happy with the start, and I think it really does give us confidence as we think about the year, but it is just one quarter in an environment where, I think, it makes sense to be prudent. You've got an operating and currency environment that's pretty volatile. Consumer demand is somewhat soft, especially in emerging markets. And then we've got a lot going on in the transformation agenda. So, while we're executing well and we're doing the things that we can control and they are on track. I'd just say that the first quarter gives us a nice foundation to feel confident about…

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Andrew Lazar with Barclays.

Andrew Lazar - Barclays Capital, Inc.

Management

Good morning, everybody. Brian T. Gladden - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Hey, Andrew.

Andrew Lazar - Barclays Capital, Inc.

Management

Hi. Just two quick things from me. First off, Brian, in the guidance around full-year margins, you reaffirmed the 15% to 16% range, but I think on the fourth quarter call, you had specifically pointed to the low end of that range because you had deconsolidated Venezuela at the time. So that wasn't mentioned again this time. Is that just because of the better start around margins to the year, or am I just making more of it than I should? Brian T. Gladden - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: No, I said it's about a 200 basis point margin improvement is what we're expecting, and that's the current outlook. So that does put you at the lower end of that range. And it's 200 basis points. So we feel pretty good about that.

Dexter Congbalay - Vice President-Investor Relations

Management

Yeah, no change. Brian T. Gladden - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: No change.

Andrew Lazar - Barclays Capital, Inc.

Management

No change. Okay. And then, Irene, you had mentioned that, excluding these strategic actions that you've taken on the top line that you're growing about in line with your categories globally. Does that mean that even though, I guess, Easter was a benefit to global category growth by about a point, that it was not much of a benefit to Mondelez because otherwise I guess...? Irene B. Rosenfeld - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: Well I think, Andrew, the simple answer there's a difference between consumption and shipment. So if Easter was essentially only a week earlier, so most of our shipments last year were in the first quarter. It doesn't change that much, but obviously the consumers' purchasing pattern happens within a week or so of the holiday. So you're going to see the impact. Our consumption was closer to the overall category growth, but our shipments don't reflect that, one because of revenue management, but two because it didn't have that much of an impact on our shipments to our customers.

Andrew Lazar - Barclays Capital, Inc.

Management

Okay. Got it. And then the sustainability of developed markets volume that you saw and the improvement in – clearly, in the first quarter, I guess, there was an easier comparison in Europe in the year ago. There was a competitive recall in parts of Europe as well. So I'm just trying to get a sense of your level of visibility and comfort that developed markets volume can kind of remain more sustainably in positive territory as we go forward. Irene B. Rosenfeld - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: No, we feel very good about the underlying momentum in our developed markets. Strong vol/mix performance as well as – they were doing that while Europe is up 400 basis points and North America up almost 300 basis points. So I feel very good about the hard work that they did over the course of the last year to get the businesses to win and then the opportunity now to build on top of that base. So I think the underlying momentum that we're seeing is solid and will continue for the balance of the year. Brian T. Gladden - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Andrew, and that was improving in the second half of last year as well. So, I mean, it's not surprising. Irene B. Rosenfeld - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: Yes. It is not a totally new phenomenon.

Andrew Lazar - Barclays Capital, Inc.

Management

Right. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Bryan Spillane with Bank of America.

Bryan D. Spillane - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Management

Just wanted to follow-up, I guess, on Andrew's question, just in terms of building organic sales growth over the balance of the year because, I guess, the comparisons get a little bit more difficult balance of the year, and it sounds as if maybe Brazil, Russia, China, from a macro perspective, a little bit weaker than maybe what you were planning going into the year. And I'm not sure how we should think about Nabisco, if there is some contingency or some potential disruption we have to factor in, in terms of balance of the year organic growth. So, if you could just talk through, A, are net your sort of view in terms of the macro, the same, better, or worse than they were going into the year, and then just sort of where we should look for drivers to get to that organic sales growth over the balance of the year, given that the comps get a little bit more difficult? Thanks. Irene B. Rosenfeld - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: Well, Bryan, again, the comps do get more difficult, but in part it was because we began, as Brian said, we began to make investments. We got a lot of the pricing behind us as we were in the back half of last year. And so the foundational things that we're doing in terms of reinvesting in high ROI marketing initiatives and continuing the expansion of some of our proven innovation platforms, all of that is in place. As you saw in the first quarter, our A&C is up over 9% of revenue. We're continuing to invest in our key franchises. And that will just continue as the year progress. So, yes, we have a headwind from some of these more volatile emerging markets, but as I said in my remarks, we feel pretty comfortable that we've accounted for those against the stronger momentum that we should see everywhere else.

Bryan D. Spillane - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Management

And just, Nabisco, should we be – or North America, should we just be thinking or having to factor in some sort of probability or chance that there is some disruption? Just trying to figure out how to accommodate that or factor that in. Brian T. Gladden - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Yeah, Bryan, I guess it's hard to predict where the negotiations go and the magnitude of an impact would really depend on the outcome of those negotiations. I think as I said, we'll incur some one-time costs, but that's about building business continuity capability and being ready. We're trying to strike a balance, I would say, between the inventory necessary and a business continuity plan, but also the incremental costs. So, we've taken into the account in our plans the possibility of disruption, but again, we'll plan accordingly and we'll deal with that as it happens, but it's hard to predict where that goes.

Bryan D. Spillane - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Management

Okay. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Jason English with Goldman Sachs. Jason English - Goldman Sachs & Co.: Hey, good morning, folks. Brian T. Gladden - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Hey, Jason. Jason English - Goldman Sachs & Co.: Thank you for the question. First, a couple housekeeping items for you, Brian. Thank you for all the detail on the guidance. The one area you didn't touch on was the equity income line. It came in a little bit stronger than we were expecting. How should we think about that line item in the P&L as we move forward? And then, also sticking below the line, interest expense too was a bit lower, your guidance suggests it's going to step up. I guess the question there is why? Was there something unique about interest expense, a benefit that's not going to continue on the forward? Brian T. Gladden - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Yeah, on the equity income line, as I said, the two larger investments there, JDE and Keurig both delivered in line with our expectations, maybe a little bit better in the quarter. I don't see anything that changes our expectation for the year. They're delivering on commitments and I don't think that changes at all. Interest expense, as I signaled in the comments, we're telling you it goes down by about $25 million for the year. It reflects the lower run rate we're seeing in some of refinancing activities we had in the first quarter and a little bit of currency. We're not necessarily dropping that through in terms of the outlook, but it does provide a little bit of an opportunity there. Jason English - Goldman Sachs & Co.: Got it. That's helpful. And can you enlighten us…

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Robert Moskow with Credit Suisse. Robert Moskow - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker): Hi, there. Thank you. A question about category growth in biscuits. In prior quarters, you've shown a slide showing the global category growth rate and I don't think I see it here. But last quarter you said it was 7%. And if you're gaining share in 80% of your categories this quarter, the implication is that the category has slowed substantially. I wanted to know, could you give us a little color on that? Like is that just kind of inflationary pricing in 2015 that just isn't happening now in 2016, or is there something else happening for the category in biscuits that we should know about? Irene B. Rosenfeld - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: Well, good question, Rob. I would tell you that probably the single biggest impact on the overall category growth is the U.S. It's our biggest biscuit market and we did see that category slowing down. There's a lot of factors that contribute there. Some of our biggest customers are changing some of their merchandising policies, which is having an impact. I think we're still performing quite well within those constraints, but it is having somewhat of an impact on our overall performance. So, I think the facts are, our revenue in aggregate in North – our biscuit revenue in North America was up almost 3%, very strong vol/mix, but the category itself was a little weaker than we had seen, and our approach to that is just to continue to invest in our strong brands, to continue to introduce innovation like OREO Thins and GOOD THiNS, which are driving very strong results, and continuing to leverage the fact that we've got much more flexibility in our packaging capability as a result of the addition of assets like Salinas. So, I think we are clearly in charge of the category performance here in the U.S., and we have very strong plans in place to continue to drive that. So I would not read anything more than that into these results Robert Moskow - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker): Appreciate the color. One quick follow-up. Can you give us more specifics on what this overhead shift into second quarter is? Why would it shift from first quarter into second quarter, Brian? Brian T. Gladden - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: It's just simply the timing of some spending that we would have initially probably expected in the first quarter that's sliding into the second quarter. So, we saw a little bit of a benefit on our SG&A in Q1, and it'll be a little bit of a headwind in Q2. Total year doesn't change at all. Robert Moskow - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker): Okay. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Matthew Grainger with Morgan Stanley. Matthew C. Grainger - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC: Good morning. Thanks, everyone. I just had two questions. First, you've talked in recent quarters about the potential to begin to rebuild margins in some of your key emerging market regions, and I think the expectation was that this could be more of a 2017 and 2018 dynamic. We're still seeing headwinds in Eastern Europe, Latin America, a bit in Asia. During the quarter, margins were covered pretty sharply and read an all-time high at around 16%. So just curious, Brian, I guess what drove the margin performance there? Whether that was market mix or more sustainable recovery that we could see carry forward through the year? Brian T. Gladden - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Well, I think it starts with ultimately getting the pricing right, which is clearly what's driving EEMEA and Latin America in the short term. But I do think it's the fundamental work that we're doing on getting net productivity to flow through and gross margins improving, while these regions are also doing ZBB and implementing shared services and all the things that are helping us reduce overhead. So the fundamental cost structure of the regions has gotten better. If we can get pricing right in the markets, we'll see improvement there, and that's what we saw in both EEMEA and Asia Pacific in the quarter, and Latin America was really the pricing challenge and the currency dynamics in Brazil that hurt us. So good progress there, but it's the same fundamental game plan and initiatives that are driving margins everywhere. Matthew C. Grainger - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC: Okay. Thanks. And, Irene, I wanted to come back to the GOOD THiNS launch and just get a better sense of how you are thinking about the rollout and the marketing resources there. I know it's still early so we probably haven't seen a huge amount in the marketplace yet, but should we expect to see a stepped up kind of big bet on A&C, or is this the case where you're going to be working more with social media and building out gradually? Irene B. Rosenfeld - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: No, we've accounted for it in the context of our overall A&C. We're getting very good returns on our investments behind our Power Brands in the U.S., and we're going to continue to make those investments, so it is accounted for in our aggregate budget. We're very pleased with the early response both from our customers and from our consumers. As I mentioned, it's a 1.4 share after just a couple of weeks in the market. And so we will support it, but it is accounted for in the overall A&C targets that we've given to you. Matthew C. Grainger - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC: Okay. Great. Thanks again.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of David Palmer with RBC Capital Markets.

David Palmer - RBC Capital Markets LLC

Management

Thanks. Good morning. Brian T. Gladden - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Thank you, David.

David Palmer - RBC Capital Markets LLC

Management

You mentioned that you remain cautious about the volatile economic environment. I was wondering if you could give more color about the trends you are seeing in markets like Russia and Brazil. And, of course, you have the benefit of seeing dollars and volume by week and month. And are you seeing that – the decline rates stabilize, or is that volatility or the deterioration in recent months just making it too difficult to make a call about the bottom in markets like these? Thanks. Irene B. Rosenfeld - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: You know, David, it's a little hard to tell you are we at the bottom. What we're seeing is certainly worse than what we were seeing last year. And our team is managing through it. There's a little bit of a different situation in Russia versus Brazil, but they're both inflationary markets that are causing us to have to price. And it's having some impact on our categories and on consumer demand. So, we do remain cautious about the operating environment in both of those markets. We don't see any near term catalyst, too much of a change. But we're also not expecting it to get dramatically worse. So again, as I said in my remarks, we believe we've accounted for it in the outlook that we're giving to you, but it is one of the reasons that we are being cautious as we think about our outlook for the future.

David Palmer - RBC Capital Markets LLC

Management

And then, just a quick follow-up on Europe. Can you give some color about the improving trends there? Is this really all about the competitive price gaps? And with the comparisons easing in Germany, does it feel like you're turning the corner after this first quarter? Thanks. Irene B. Rosenfeld - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: The simple answer is yes. We've taken a number of steps in Europe to get ourselves fit to win and I'm very pleased with the progress that the team has made. Without a doubt we took a very significant revenue management action in Germany last year. We will lap that as we exit the second quarter. And the rest of our business, I'm actually quite pleased to see strong performance on our chocolate business in Germany, ex that customer. We've gotten a terrific response to the incremental investments we have made in our UK chocolate business, where our shares are up almost a point in that geography. Our Power Brands are performing well. So I think we needed to reset our base and address the cost impact on our P&L. We have done that and you're seeing their impact in our gross margins, our operating margins, as well as a return to growth in the region.

David Palmer - RBC Capital Markets LLC

Management

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Ken Goldman with JPMorgan.

Joshua A. Levine - JPMorgan Securities LLC

Management

Hi. It's Josh Levine on for Ken. Irene, you mentioned strong productivity that drove the gross margin improvements in the quarter. Can you help us think about the drivers, I guess, to the gross margin in more detail? Specifically maybe how much came from new plants, inflation, SKU rationalization that may have gone up (41:56) over and above I guess your typical productivity plans? I guess just any help you can offer about how sustainable those gains were would be great. Thanks. Irene B. Rosenfeld - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: Simple answer, Josh, is they're quite sustainable. The bulk of that net productivity is just coming from some of the fundamental work we've done with our teams on Lean Six Sigma and the improvements that we're seeing as a result of that. And that is a gift that keeps giving. We certainly are beginning to see some of the benefits of the 40 plus Lines of the Future that are operating around the world, and that is part of the algorithm that allows us to have great confidence, not only about our margin targets for this year, but the 2017 to 2018 target that we've given to you, as well. So it is a combination, but the bulk of it is driven by fundamental execution of our productivity programs around the world, and we're very pleased with that performance.

Joshua A. Levine - JPMorgan Securities LLC

Management

Thanks. And I guess just one quick follow-up. There had been some recent news about you being in negotiations to sell a bunch of brands and some plants in Europe. I guess both can you just comment on some of the strategies there, some of the reasons for it, and then, to what extent maybe we could see more of that in the future. Thanks. Brian T. Gladden - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Yeah, look, we continue to focus on Power Brands as a priority, and clearly, there are some opportunities as you look at parts of our portfolio. We have an announced transaction that was in the press involving parts of our French business we sold to Eurazeo, which for us these are a very rational set of actions that are consistent with our agenda here. So we focus on Power Brands and our portfolio. We simplify our supply chain and allows to us invest behind the brands that have the highest returns. So that transaction is something that will likely close in 2017, as you get through regulatory approvals and works councils and all the things that go with that. But I would say that's just part of what we're doing as we think about focusing on Power Brands and there could be more opportunities like that, but nothing to talk about today.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Alexia Howard with Bernstein. Alexia Jane Howard - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC: Can I ask about the advertising spending? You talked about it being above – the A&C spending being above 9%. How much was that up year-on-year, and what's the outlook for subsequent quarters in the year? Is it going to be up more or perhaps less going forward? And maybe just to touch on innovation. Where are the big sort of white space opportunities that you're really getting your teeth into this year? What are the main applications of the innovation pipeline in terms of new products at the moment? Thank you and I'll pass it on. Irene B. Rosenfeld - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: So, first of all, with respect to A&C, our A&C is up about low-single digit, mid-to-low single digits, and again, as part of our overall plan to continue to improve our share of voice, you will see that going up for the full year. So there's nothing anomalous about the first quarter and we are very pleased that given the strong performance that we are seeing on our margin improvement, we have the opportunity not only to drop that money to the bottom line, but also to reinvest in areas that get a good return for us. With respect to innovation, we continue to have a very strong portfolio of platforms, and you will continue to see us take those ideas around the world. And so, for example, OREO Thins started in China. We have expanded it to the U.S., Canada, and now into Australia. It's going to be about a $200 million business for us this year. belVita Crunchy, we started in many markets with a soft version, we now we have a hard version, we call it belVita Crunchy, that's going to be about $500 million for us this year as we expand it to a variety of different markets. We have a number of innovations on our Cadbury Dairy Milk and Milka franchises that we're taking around the world. So net-net, we've been seeing a double-digit contribution to our revenue growth from these innovations and you'll see that continue and a portion of our investment, as I talk about spending in the 9% to 10% range on A&C, a portion of that is in support of those franchises Alexia Jane Howard - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC: Thank you very much. I will pass it on.

Operator

Operator

Your final question comes from the line of Dave Driscoll with Citigroup.

David Cristopher Driscoll - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.

Broker

Thank you for squeezing me in here. I appreciate it. So I had two questions. The first one was just on the constant-currency outlook of 2% or better. Can you talk a little bit about the components of price and volume? I would assume that because foreign exchange pressures are lower, you don't need to take as much pricing as you were previously contemplating. So would it mean that the price piece has come down and then commensurately you would expect volumes to go up because of elasticities, positive elasticities? Irene B. Rosenfeld - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: The simple answer is yes, David. So as we said to you, our long-term algorithm is a much better balance between pricing and vol/mix. We were very skewed in these last two years or so because of the very significant impact of currencies, as well as some of our inputs like cocoa. As we move forward, we should see a much different relationship and I think you're starting to see the impact of that play through in our first quarter as you can see pricing is a lesser impact and we're starting to see, even though vol/mix in aggregate is still negative, it's an improved trend and certainly I'm very pleased to see three of our five regions with positive vol/mix.

David Cristopher Driscoll - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.

Broker

Maybe, Irene, just to say this, but since the 2% number doesn't change, then it's almost got to be like offsetting effects that go on. Pricing come down, volume goes up. And I just wanted to be clear that that is, in fact, how to think about this thing. And I know you guys put the plus sign by the 2%, so we never really know exactly what the figure is. But the right answer here is that you would see whenever pricing doesn't come down or however much it is lower than the previous estimate, the volume elasticity will make up for it.

Dexter Congbalay - Vice President-Investor Relations

Management

Hey, David, it's Dexter. Just kind of a quick clarification. At CAGNY, you may recall, in developed markets this year we said it was going to be positive vol/mix for the year and emerging markets, excluding Brazil and Russia, would be positive for the year, including Brazil and Russia, emerging markets volume would be negative. We really didn't give a total company view, but yes you are right, the pricing benefit obviously should be much more muted than it was last year given the currency dynamics and the commodities dynamics and trends in vol/mix will definitely improve versus last year as well. And you started to see that play through in the first quarter.

David Cristopher Driscoll - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.

Broker

Okay. And then, Brian, just one question for you. But it's – it might be a fascinating question here. Do you have an assessment on what the impact is to Mondelez from the new treasury rules that were issued on April 4? It seems like there is three areas that there could be some impact, whether it is tax rate, share repurchase or cash repatriation. Do you have any assessment for us on any impacts from those new treasury rules? Brian T. Gladden - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: David, what I would say is, we continue to work through that. I would tell you that as we work through it from a tax rate standpoint for modeling purposes, we don't anticipate any impact. There are some other things, as you mentioned, that we'll continue to work through and gain a better understanding of how they may impact us, but nothing to share at this point.

David Cristopher Driscoll - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.

Broker

Okay. Thank you so much.

Operator

Operator

I will now turn the call back to management for closing remarks.

Dexter Congbalay - Vice President-Investor Relations

Management

Hi, it's Dexter. Thanks for joining the call this morning. I'd be happy to take any further calls or comments as today is – the rest of the week and of course over the course of the day. And I'll be around to take any calls. Thank you again.