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Medtronic plc (MDT)

Q3 2025 Earnings Call· Tue, Feb 18, 2025

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Transcript

Ryan Weispfenning

Management

Good morning. I'm Ryan Weispfenning, Vice President and Head of Medtronic Investor Relations, and I appreciate that you're joining us for our fiscal '25 third quarter video earnings webcast. Before we go inside to hear our prepared remarks, I'll share a few details about today's webcast. Joining me are Geoff Martha, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; and Gary Corona, Interim Chief Financial Officer. Geoff and Gary will provide comments on the results of our third quarter, which ended on January 24, 2025, and our outlook for the remainder of fiscal year '25. After our prepared remarks, the executive VPs from each of our 4 segments will join us, and we'll take questions from the sell-side analysts that cover the company. Today's program should last about an hour. Earlier this morning, we issued a press release containing our financial statements, divisional and geographic revenue summaries and non-GAAP reconciliations. We also posted an earnings presentation that provides additional details on our performance. The presentation can be accessed in our earnings press release or on our website at investorrelations.medtronic.com. During today's program, many of the statements we make may be considered forward-looking statements, and actual results may differ materially from those projected in any forward-looking statement. Additional information concerning factors that could cause our actual results to differ is contained in our periodic reports and other filings that we make with the SEC, and we do not undertake to update any forward-looking statement. Unless we say otherwise, all comparisons are on a year-over-year basis, and revenue comparisons are made on an organic basis, which excludes the impact of foreign currency and third quarter revenue in the current prior year reported as other. References to sequential revenue changes compared to the second quarter of fiscal '25 and are made on an as-reported basis. All share references are on a revenue and year-over-year basis and compare our third fiscal quarter to our competitors' fourth calendar quarter. Reconciliations of all non-GAAP financial measures can be found in our earnings press release or on our website at investorrelations.medtronic.com. And finally, our EPS guidance does not include any charges or gains that would be reported as non-GAAP adjustments to earnings during the fiscal year. With that, let's head into the studio and hear about the quarter.

Geoffrey Martha

Management

Hello everyone, and thanks for joining us today. We delivered another quarter of mid-single-digit revenue growth for the ninth quarter in a row. We had strong performances in several areas, starting with 22% growth in Cardiac Ablation Solutions, powered by our PFA portfolio. Leadless pacing, Neuromodulation, and Diabetes all grew double digits. And Structural Heart, excluding Congenital, and U.S. Cranial & Spinal Technologies both grew high single digits. We advanced our innovation pipeline and are opening up the largest total addressable market in med tech with Renal Denervation. It's an exciting time as we're stacking growth drivers on top of growth drivers with groundbreaking innovation in some of the most attractive markets in med tech. We overcame a short-term U.S. distributor dynamic and delivered strong earnings power with high single-digit EPS growth coming in ahead of both consensus and the high end of our guidance range with strong improvements in both our gross margin and operating margin. And as we look ahead to our fiscal fourth quarter, we expect our revenue and EPS growth to accelerate, as we build on momentum in important growth markets and continue to drive earnings leverage. We expect our formula of delivering durable revenue growth, leveraged earnings and generating strong free cash flow to create significant value for our shareholders. Now let's turn to the details of our Q3 business results and discuss our performance. Starting first with our Cardiovascular portfolio, which grew mid-single digits overall. The highlight was our Cardiac Ablation Solutions business. Now we forecasted strong double-digit growth this quarter and CAS delivered meaningful acceleration, growing 22%. Our pulsed field ablation products are driving rapid growth. We've hit a new gear on supply and demand for our PFA portfolio continues to accelerate. We are the only company with 2 PFA platforms, Affera and…

Gary Corona

Management

Thanks, Geoff. Our Q3 revenue of $8.3 billion grew 4.1% organic. On the bottom line, adjusted EPS was $1.39, up 6.9%. This was $0.03 above both consensus and the midpoint of our guidance. The EPS beat was driven by better-than-expected operating profit on stronger gross margins and a better-than-expected tax rate. We like the shape of the P&L this quarter with mid-single-digit organic growth on the top line, improved gross and operating margin, strong investment behind our growth drivers, resulting in leveraged earnings growth. We continue to see breadth and diversification in our revenue growth with double-digit growth in Diabetes and mid-single-digit growth in Cardiovascular and Neuroscience offsetting Medical Surgical. We continue to see stronger overall growth in our international markets, which grew 5%, including high single-digit growth in Japan. Emerging markets grew high single digits, including high teens growth in India, mid-teens growth in Eastern Europe and low double-digit growth in Southeast Asia and the Middle East and Africa. Moving down our P&L, our adjusted gross margin was 66.6%, up 50 basis points versus last year and ahead of our expectations. We continue to execute on our COGS efficiency programs, and that's helping to drive margin upside. We also drove the upside with our focus on better pricing and business mix. The improved gross margin translated into an operating margin that was also ahead of our expectations. Our adjusted operating margin was 26.2%, up 100 basis points versus a year ago. The organization remains extremely focused on improving our margins over time. We're also prioritizing investments in our pipeline and important product launch capabilities like hiring hundreds of mappers to support PFA growth and market development specialists in Renal Denervation to accelerate RDN growth. At the same time, we're returning significant capital to our shareholders, primarily through our strong…

Geoffrey Martha

Management

Thank you, Gary. And I want to thank you for stepping in as CFO over the last few quarters. I know you're going to help ensure a smooth transition as we welcome Thierry, and I look forward to your continued contributions to Medtronic. Now Thierry will be joining us in a couple of weeks. And as I've heard from several of you in the investment community, it sounds like your checks are confirming what led us to hire him. He has a very strong reputation for his operational focus and ability to lead organizations to drive margin improvement, portfolio management and earnings power to create shareholder value. Now before we go to analyst questions, I'll share a few final thoughts. Look, we've made a number of changes to the company. And the turnaround definitely hasn't been overnight. It's been building. It's been building with 9 quarters in a row of mid-single-digit growth. And now we're clearly entering a new phase with the growth drivers kicking in, and these are big growth drivers. As I said earlier, we're stacking growth drivers on top of growth drivers. We're in the moment with 780G in Diabetes, closed-loop technology in Neuromodulation and, of course, PFA in our Cardiac Ablation Solutions business. And we're about to start a massive growth driver with our Symplicity procedure in hypertension. And there's even more to come with opportunities like Tibial Stim for Overactive Bladder, our Hugo robot, and our transcatheter mitral and tricuspid valves, among many others. And at the same time, our earnings power is now kicking in with high single-digit EPS growth this quarter and next. So look, it's a very exciting time to be here at Medtronic. And I want to close by thanking our employees who are listening today and make all of this possible. You're making a difference every day for patients around the world, innovating and advancing health care technology and improving health care access. You're inventing, developing and deploying meaningful technologies that will change standard of care and create whole new markets. I appreciate your dedication to the Medtronic mission, and I'm really looking forward to what we will collectively accomplish in the days ahead. With that, let's move to Q&A where we're going to try to get to as many analysts as possible. So we ask that you limit yourself to one question and only, if needed, a related follow-up. If you have additional questions, you can reach out to Ryan and the Investor Relations team after the call. So with that, Brad, can you please give the instructions for asking a question?

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Lastly, please be advised that this Q&A session is being recorded. For today's session, Geoff, Gary and Ryan are joined by Que Dallara, EVP and President of Diabetes; Mike Marinaro, EVP and President of the Medical Surgical portfolio; Sean Salmon, EVP and President of the Cardiovascular Portfolio; and Brett Wall, EVP and President of the Neuroscience Portfolio. [Operator Instructions] We'll take the first question from Patrick Wood at Morgan Stanley.

Patrick Wood

Analyst

I promise I'll keep it to one. As you guys are moving into '26, fiscal '26, obviously, there's Hugo, CAS accelerating, Inceptiv doing well, Micra, et cetera. So there's a lot of moving parts. I know it's only Q3, but would it be fair to assume that the base algorithm, call it, mid-single-digit growth, and then high singles on the bottom line, that that's a fair assumption moving into fiscal '26, also given we got that as an exit rate in Q4. Is that a fair assumption?

Geoffrey Martha

Management

Sure. Patrick, thanks for the question. Yes, we'll give FY '26 guidance on our Q4 call. But yes, our objective is unchanged. We're committed to doing the things that we need to do to drive profitable growth and operating leverage at Medtronic. So as Gary pointed out in the commentary, we reiterated our guidance for this fiscal year of 4.75% to 5% organic revenue growth and high single-digit realized EPS growth in the back half of the year. And as we look into the future, we think that -- we're still committed to that LRP that you outlined.

Operator

Operator

We'll take the next question from Larry Biegelsen at Wells Fargo.

Larry Biegelsen

Analyst

I wanted to ask Sean a question on AF Solutions, which was obviously a bright spot in Q3. So Sean, talk about the drivers of the acceleration in Q4 and how you're thinking about fiscal '26. And specifically the ramp of Affera, where you are with supply, your ability to get mapping in the field and that $2 billion line of sight, how quickly can you get there?

Geoffrey Martha

Management

Larry, let me take the first swing at that and then have Sean come in on some of the details. First of all, it's great to see how PFA is -- the impact it's having on patients and also increasing physician and hospital productivity with its speed and efficacy and safety profile. And we're really excited about our positioning in the market, and you're starting to see that in our last quarter's results, as you pointed out. And we consider this to be like a hyper growth driver for us, and we're really just getting started. Back to the line of sight question, that's what I wanted to get at, the $2 billion line of sight. Here's what I'll say. First of all, the market is super strong and will continue. We see PFA as a roughly $9 billion market, growing in the high teens. And we've got strong demand for both of our platforms, PulseSelect and Affera. And this gives us a ton of flexibility as we grow the market globally. And as many of you pointed out, Affera is just -- it's getting rave reviews. I mean it's high demand. And as I've traveled the globe here in the first couple of weeks of the year, everybody seems to know that name Affera. And supply is a lot better across the board. Our suppliers are performing well, and our new factory in Galway is a game changer with an immediate impact for Affera. And so I'd say, these are not -- like the $2 billion line of sight, they're not like forward-looking statements. This is in the moment, and we're not stopping at the $2 billion. That's not an end game. That's line of sight shorter term. When you get beyond next year, don't forget that Affera will be moving into the single-shot space as well. And so we still have a lot of confidence about the near-term and long-term opportunity here with PFA and our 2 platforms. I don't know, Sean, do you want to -- I think Larry had a few other things on there as well. Do you want to jump in?

Sean Salmon

Analyst

Yes, sure, Geoff. I think you've covered it pretty well. We are aggressively expanding both capacity within the factory and within the field. And it's important that we stay ahead of that as we add mapping in. And I think as Geoff said, we're not just seeing strong demand for Affera, its launch in the third quarter in the United States has driven a lot of growth. But we also -- we're in those hospitals, we're getting a lot of the paroxysmal cases with PulseSelect as well. So it's really a kind of dual platform, multiple-use sort of penetration to the accounts. We also see a lot of utility for certain geographies that don't use mapping, where PulseSelect is a really favorite product, too, because of its precision and its proven and durable efficacy and, increasingly, that safety profile, which is really a distinguishing feature for it. So as we step into next year, I think we got lots of growth to look ahead to as we expand out that footprint in the field and have capacity really well ahead of the demand, and we push it forward. So things are going to continue to rock for us within the pulsed field ablation world, and the team is really excited about it and physicians really appreciate the technology we're bringing.

Operator

Operator

The next question comes from Robbie Marcus at JPMorgan.

Robert Marcus

Analyst

There's talk of all these big growth drivers with pulsed field ablation and Hugo, especially now with the trials enrolling and submission coming at the end of the month and also Renal Denervation. How do you think about balancing the spend of investing in these programs to make sure they're successful versus being able to continue driving margin expansion like we saw in this quarter?

Geoffrey Martha

Management

Yes. Well, thanks for the question, Robbie. Look, I'd say we do have a lot of, I'll call them, growth drivers that come with investment opportunities. And the goal here is to be able to do both, right, is to be able to invest in these things and growth as well as hit our financial algorithm that Patrick asked about. And the gross margin improvement is a key piece of that, right? So over the last couple of quarters and even years, we've done our -- we've really, I think, gotten better at being able to grow the sales number that mid-single digit without growing the G&A -- the SG&A even nearly at the same pace. And that will continue. And then adding the gross margin improvement to that gives us a lot more flexibility. And then finally, I would add tuck-in M&A. I think tuck-in M&A, we've got a strong balance sheet and tuck-in M&A gives us an opportunity to -- because the tuck-ins we're doing are just another form of R&D for the most part. And so that's how we do it. But a key for us is stepping up the tuck-in M&A, I'd say, and continuing the margin improvement. Gary, anything to add to that?

Gary Corona

Management

No, you hit it, Geoff. It's been our focus. We grew gross margin in the first half of the year on a constant currency basis, and we'll grow gross margin on an AFX basis in the second half of the year. And that's really what's going to be key to us being able to deliver the high single-digit EPS while we fund the growth drivers like investing in mappers, as I talked about in my prepared remarks.

Geoffrey Martha

Management

The goal here, we've got some of these growth drivers, we've got to continue to make the investment. We want to play offense at this point in time.

Operator

Operator

The next question comes from Vijay Kumar at Evercore ISI.

Vijay Kumar

Analyst

Geoff, I think I had a 2-parter. When it comes to large companies, this is exactly what we wanted to see, diversified portfolio. We have some moving parts, but you still have the ability to manage the P&L and drive earnings, right? I feel like that's what we got here. When I look at the print here, U.S. Surgical, I think you called out a distributor timing impact. But what gives you the confidence this is not a share loss? And I think related to that P&L management, right, this gross margin stood out. Any one-timers in gross margins? Maybe talk about what drove the sequential step-up in gross margins in sustainability?

Geoffrey Martha

Management

Sure. Well, thanks for the question. I'd say on the Surgical question, first, like I said in the commentary, the performance there was driven by a couple of our larger distributors stepping down their carried inventory levels of Medtronic inventory below their normal levers. Like I said on the call, this dynamic cost us about a couple of hundred basis points in Q3 growth. However, we do expect these dynamics to resolve as we enter Q1 when these distributors reach their target inventory levels. So when they get to those inventory levels that they communicated that they want to get to, to us, that's when this resolves and that's going to be as we enter Q1. Now your question about share. We do have the ability to see through, we track this very closely, the end customer purchases. And one, we know they're stable; and two, we're not losing share. We continue, I think, to outperform slightly in the non-robotic space. Robotics in the U.S., obviously, is a headwind for us. So that's what I'd say to that one. And on the second one, I'll let Gary handle the gross margin question.

Gary Corona

Management

Thanks. And Vijay, thanks for your comments on balancing the puts and takes. As Geoff and I have talked about, we're really focused on delivering the earnings power. On gross margin specifically, we were pleased with the performance, 140 bps sequentially and 50 bps year-over-year on an AFX basis. The drivers, as Geoff talked about, continuing our COGS efficiency programs and really improving our operating efficiencies. We continue to be disciplined on pricing. And we did see some, actually in the gross margin line, foreign exchange favorability. I will say our second half gross margins will be up both on a constant currency and on an AFX basis, and we're really focused on it to not only drive the earnings power, but also to fund the investment, as Geoff talked about.

Geoffrey Martha

Management

Yes. I mean I think that, like Gary said, the focus on the margins in every aspect of them, whether it be pricing, mix and of course, our cost-down programs, and those are having an impact in improving the margin. Getting back to Surgery, your question on share loss, I'd also say the business is doing well outside the U.S. at mid-single-digit growth. In emerging markets, we're seeing high single-digit growth. And then we're gaining share worldwide in areas like LigaSure and barbed sutures. And then really what we want to do is get this business back to our corporate average, right? And that, as we look to FY '26, Hugo accelerates and becomes more of a growth driver for Surgical -- at the Surgical level. And as I mentioned in the commentary, Hugo is approaching some important milestones, and some of you have asked about these. And we're seeing solid progress on Hugo as measured by, I'd say, a comprehensive set of leading indicators. And it's these indicators that give us confidence. And maybe Mike Marinaro is in the best position to discuss these. Maybe I'll ask Mike to comment on these leading indicators for Hugo.

Mike Marinaro

Analyst

Yes. Thanks, Geoff, and thanks, Vijay, for the question. I think you've commented on some of these in your commentary, Geoff. But when we look at a complex program like Hugo, there's many elements that come together really to make it go, the system, the indications, instruments, of course, and getting into markets around the world. So we're now in over 25 markets around the world. Our procedure volume has more than doubled on a year-on-year basis. We're seeing utilization improve in current programs, which is a really important measure of success. We track external publications, independent publications. There's been over 170 now at this point. So looking at the performance and utility of Hugo compared to the market leader. And what we see is that the commentary is broadly comparable, both in procedure times and functionality. So that's obviously a great external measure. We're making progress with our advanced capabilities. So we just completed our first ICG cases. LigaSure is obviously critical for Hugo. We expect to introduce that this year. And then I think as Geoff mentioned in the commentary, we are on track to submit to the FDA for the urology indication at the end of next month. But as importantly, we're increasing our capability and driving the clinical evidence to support multiple indications in the U.S., having now completed hernia, benign gynecology, moving into gyn-onc here near term, which will then give us a cadence of indication opportunity to really have a fully featured product. So we take all of these things together, and you can see that it comes together and really drives the progress and optimism that we see as we're preparing to enter the U.S. market in FY '26.

Operator

Operator

We'll take the next question from Travis Steed at Bank of America.

Travis Steed

Analyst

I just wanted to push a little more on the Surgical side since it was kind of the one area that was a little bit different this quarter. I guess curious, why do you think the distributors destocked in the quarter? And why didn't you have kind of visibility in that ahead of time? And did you talk to the distributors? And did they say they would kind of return back to normal buying patterns in the quarter? I guess I'm just looking at this U.S. Surgery business. It's kind of been below Medtronic corporate average for about 5 quarters now, and there's been a lot of onetime things going on there. But I just want to kind of get investors’ confidence that this business can return back to growth next year? And is Hugo required, do you think, to get this business back to kind of mid-single-digit plus growth?

Geoffrey Martha

Management

Yes. Okay. Travis, thanks for the question. As I had mentioned that this distributor issue that came up, it is temporary. It came in late in the quarter for us. And the distributors' reasons for bringing down their inventory, it's really to hit their goals. I'm not going to get into that. It's specific distributors and 2 of our larger ones. But that's their own goals. But as they get down to very specific inventory levels, that's when they'll be getting back to that normal trajectory. And like I said, that will happen as we enter Q1. Now getting back to your point on the U.S. Surgical business, just taking a step back, the competitive issues facing our -- really, it's our stapling franchise over the last, call it, several quarters, as you've outlined, has brought the surgical growth levels down below the corporate average, as you pointed out. However, these pressures aren't new. And we're committed to returning the Surgical business to a stronger growth profile more in line with the corporate average. Mike walked you through our confidence in Robotics, and that's becoming a growth driver for the Surgical business itself in FY '26. And then beyond, it will become more of a -- in the midterm, a more growth driver at the Medtronic level at the $33 billion revenue level, you'll start to feel it. In addition, we just got to maintain our strength in emerging markets where we're seeing the high single-digit growth. We need to continue to take share with LigaSure and barbed sutures on a worldwide basis, and I already talked about Hugo. So we have confidence in this because of the progress -- we feel we have confidence in this because of the progress we're making and how we're holding in other parts of the business. Mike, anything you want to add to that?

Mike Marinaro

Analyst

I think you've outlined it really well, Geoff. We are focused on our areas of growth that you highlighted, where we can gain share. This dynamic that we experienced this quarter was a bit unique, and it did come in late, although we have had conversations. We understand what the objectives are. We expect that when we hit those levels that we then see more normalized performance moving forward. So that really should address that issue. And then we get it back into our normal sort of rhythm focusing on the areas of growth that you described.

Geoffrey Martha

Management

And then the guidance that we've given implies both the top and bottom line acceleration in Q4, even though we still have this distributor issue in Q4. And this is driven largely by acceleration of CV because Cardiovascular will accelerate and drive upside going forward. So when you think about Cardiovascular, we've had about 10 quarters in a row of mid-single-digit growth without much, if any, contribution from CAS or RDN. And let's refer to this as like the CV base business without CAS and RDN. And we'll continue to see this performance in the base business, driven by above-market performance in CRM, think leadless, conduction system pacing, EV-ICD. And again, as I mentioned in the commentary, Structural Heart is in a great place and with strong evidence and that we'll keep building upon and product improvements that have come out in Evolut FX+ and I think just better commercial execution against the main competitor there from our team. I mentioned Cardiac Surgery, where we've revamped the product lineup, refreshed it over the last 2 years, and now it's been growing at high single digits. So you have all that in this base business that we don't see changing going forward, that mid-single-digit growth that we've seen over the last 10 quarters. And now you add the contributions from CAS and RDN on top of that, that you'll accelerate in Q4. And then as you enter into FY '26, you pick up the RDN piece as well and CAS keeps going.

Operator

Operator

We'll take the next question from Matt Miksic at Barclays.

Matthew Miksic

Analyst

So I wanted to just follow up on the other sort of soft spot in the quarter here around Peripheral Vascular that went from like a mid-single-digit growth in previous quarters to this low-single-digit decline. And I guess similar to the questions around distributor stocking is timing for turning that around confidence that, that can kind of turn the corner here since that really was the only business in CV that pulled down a little bit on a pretty solid mid-single-digit growth portfolio average.

Geoffrey Martha

Management

Yes. Just Matt, you broke up a second there. I think you were talking about Peripheral Vascular. But yes, that is really a China issue. That is a China VBP issue that we're dealing with there that will work its way out. China, we've worked through most of the VBP, but there is still a little bit left to go, and it's created, I'd say, a little bit of volatility within the China line, and we've been able to overall do well there and actually do well profitably as well. But you see volatility that shows up in an individual business, and that's what happened for Peripheral Vascular this quarter. Anything to add to that, Gary or Sean, in terms of... All right.

Operator

Operator

The next question comes from Josh Jennings at TD Cowen.

Joshua Jennings

Analyst

I was hoping you guys have talked about the massive global opportunity for the Renal Denervation franchise, and you laid out the path to unlocking the U.S. I was hoping to just get an update on the international opportunity, just where the business stands. Should we be thinking or could we be seeing some coverage and announcements in different countries? And then what do you expect, means what needs to happen in order for that international ramp for the Spyral unit going forward?

Geoffrey Martha

Management

Sure. Thanks for the question, Josh. I'm going to let Sean answer the global question, the international question. But before, I just got a comment on, look, RDN, it's been a journey for us. As we sit here today, we're really excited. I mean the NCA is a huge milestone. And now we're going to be going after the -- basically the -- we're excited to change the standard of care in the largest chronic disease issue in health care with hypertension, the #1 contributor to death. And this NCA, going to an NCD, we have a lot of confidence. We've gone back and looked over the last decade plus, we haven't seen an example where an NCA doesn't convert to an NCD. And we've got -- and the FDA or the CMS has laid out really definitive timing for the announcement in July and then take effect in October. So that really unlocks this huge opportunity in the U.S. And we think it does create a halo effect not just in the U.S. for commercial players, but globally. And then that's where your question comes in. So Sean, do you want to talk about the international progress and opportunity?

Sean Salmon

Analyst

Yes, sure. Thanks, Josh. Appreciate the question. So like a lot of these reimbursement efforts, you have to do them country by country by meeting the individual expectations. And across Europe, most of that's a health technology assessment. And we've published numerous cost-effectiveness studies, which would support those analyses. The other thing that really drives payment decision at the country level is going to be the guidelines that get published. All those society statements have been very supportive to the European guidelines and ESC guidelines. So we're seeing country-by-country increases, including France, which has established reimbursement. And then outside the United States and Europe, we've recently gotten approval within China, and then we have to go to the hospital listing process there. So we'll start in big cities and go beyond that. And of course, the only outstanding country for approval is Japan, and we're working on that to getting regulatory approval. And then typically, it's 6 months from the time of approval to when you get reimbursement for those products. So we're making a good push in every country where we can. But make no mistake about it, the U.S. is going to be the dominant growth driver for Renal Denervation given both the prevalence of the disease and the setup we have for both Medicare payment as well as the building commercial insurers' interest in covering this device as well.

Operator

Operator

The next question comes from David Rescott at Baird.

David Rescott

Analyst

I wanted to ask on FX, Geoff. I think you called out the opportunity recently to more actively manage the FX risk exposure. Maybe could you help us understand exactly how you can do that, maybe the kind of level or magnitude of control these factors ultimately could have on FX? And then over what period you think you could start to mitigate some of that FX risk?

Geoffrey Martha

Management

So thanks for the question, David. I mean I'd say on that, on your last point, the actions we've taken have already started to mitigate this, and it's been something we've been working on now for quite a while, a couple of quarters, and you're starting to see effects. But I'm going to have Gary outline exactly what we're doing and the opportunity here.

Gary Corona

Management

Yes. David, I'll start with your second question, and then I'll come back to what we're doing about it. And I think your second question was just what are we seeing. And what we're seeing this year has been very consistent. So there's no new news for FY '25. And then as I talked about in my prepared comments, as we have visibility into '26, we'll have meaningfully less of a headwind on the FX line than we did in FY '25. Thanks for recognizing what we've been talking about. And as Geoff said, we're making progress by really taking a greater level of ownership and proactive measures. We're changing our incentive structure to U.S. dollars versus local currency for many of our emerging markets. And it drives commercial changes like dynamic pricing. That might mean updating our pricing as often as every month. And this was a big change for us. And as Geoff mentioned, we're seeing the progress. That activity will help our gross margins. And as we talked about earlier, that's the key to driving the earnings power as well as funding the investments in growth while we deliver against our financial commitments. So thanks for the question. I appreciate it, and please know it's a key area of focus for us.

Geoffrey Martha

Management

The only other thing I'd say to that is, and Gary's team has done a lot of work on this, as well as our global operations and supply team, is creating natural hedges in our supply chain as well with our suppliers and how we look at supply chain. So it's a comprehensive view -- a comprehensive approach, if you will, that is starting to pay off.

Ryan Weispfenning

Management

Thank you, David. Well, I think we've got time for 2 more questions, Brad.

Operator

Operator

The next question comes from Shagun Singh at RBC Capital Markets.

Shagun Singh Chadha

Analyst

Geoff, I was very intrigued by your comments around stacking growth drivers on top of growth drivers. And I was wondering if you could put maybe a finer point. Some of the drivers here could be pretty meaningful. So anything you can share here in terms of magnitude of the incremental growth contribution in year 1 versus year 5? Anything there? And then can you talk a little bit about the specific timing here? So the line of sight to $2 billion, when do you think you can get there? You said that's a first stop. So where does it go over time? For Hugo, you mentioned growth contributor in FY 2026, as well as meaningful growth in the medium term. So can you define that better? And then just on RDN, you said it will be an immediate growth driver upon coverage. So just any color on the near-term appetite and what that looks like?

Geoffrey Martha

Management

That was a loaded question there, Shagun. Thanks for the questions. I mean I'd say, the way we're looking at the growth drivers is like, look, these are -- we define growth drivers as areas where we have high confidence in a large -- a fast-growing market that's also a large market and then confidence in our position in that market. So 3 that are here now. Obviously, Diabetes, we've talked a lot about. We've had several quarters in a row of double-digit growth. And we still have -- on the basis of 780G, we still haven't gotten our Simplera Sync. That's in front of the FDA for the U.S. And we've got a pipeline here of other things like patch. We talked about expanded indications for 780G like type 2, which are meaningful. So there's a lot in Diabetes to come, but it's already been growing double digits here for a number of quarters. We talked a lot about PFA and CAS and kind of how we're just moving forward here and that line of sight comment. I answered that earlier that not only put a specific time frame around that $2 billion, but it's in the near term as we've unlocked supply here. I came to find out that there was a lot -- people had looked at -- and this is based on both of our platforms. I know there's a lot of questions around Affera and there was -- I think we've kind of cracked the code, if you will, on supply there. And this new factory in Galway, Ireland, has really been a game changer for us. And of course, Neuromod, because I think we're one of the few that's growing in the teens here. I think we're the only one. And this is maybe…

Ryan Weispfenning

Management

Okay. Thanks, Shagun. We've got time for one more question, Brad.

Operator

Operator

Our final question comes from Pito Chickering at Deutsche Bank.

Pito Chickering

Analyst

I'll make this one quick at top of the hour. A follow-up question just to Travis' on Medical Surgical. Is there any risk that this is from distributors that are pushing their own privately manufactured products and displacing Medtronic products? In general, as you look at your portfolio in that division, is that a potential risk for the future?

Geoffrey Martha

Management

No. I'll let Mike answer that question, but I think the short answer is no. But Mike, why don't you tell them why?

Mike Marinaro

Analyst

Yes. We've been given no evidence of that at all. We have very active conversations and specific agreements with them around the products that we sell and that they distribute for us. And we're very clear, Pito, on just how that all comes together in the marketplace. And so there's no indication that there's any pressure at all from that front just based on our work together with them.

Geoffrey Martha

Management

The other thing I'd augment that answer is that, look, we go through distributors because there's a lot of products here in the Surgical business, right? But the contracting we do, a lot of that's directly between us and the hospital. So we have very tight contracts that have been tested over time, like if we have a supply shortage and then a competitor takes up that and we get it back, we get that supply back. We're right back to where we were based on the contracts. These contracts with the hospitals are pretty tight as well. So you have the dynamic Mike said that these distributors, we have tight contracts with them, but then we have tight contracts that we enter directly with the end user hospitals. So that we don't -- it's the first time I got that question, but that's not something that we're concerned about in the business.

Ryan Weispfenning

Management

Okay. Thanks, Pito. Geoff, please go ahead with your final remarks.

Geoffrey Martha

Management

Okay. Well, thanks to all the analysts for the questions and to all that you've joined us today. We appreciate your support and continued interest in Medtronic, and we hope you'll join us for our Q4 earnings broadcast, which we anticipate we're going to be holding on Wednesday, May 21, where we'll update you on how we finished the fiscal year, including all of our growth drivers and margin expansion and how that's all tracking and give you guidance, of course, for FY '26. So with that, thanks for spending time with us today, and have a great rest of your day.