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Mercer International Inc. (MERC)

Q1 2014 Earnings Call· Fri, May 2, 2014

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning and welcome to Mercer International’s First Quarter 2014 Earnings Conference Call. On the call today is Jimmy Lee, President and Chief Executive Officer of Mercer International; and David Gandossi, Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer and Secretary. I will now hand the call over to David Gandossi.

David M. Gandossi

Management

Thanks, Aaron. Good morning everyone. As usual, we will begin with formal remarks, after which we will be happy to take your questions. Please note that in this morning’s conference call, we will make forward-looking statements according to the Safe Harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. I’d like to call your attention to the risks related to these statements, which are more fully described in our press release and with the company’s filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. I’d first like to begin by reminding everyone that effective October 1, 2013, we have changed our reporting currency from the Euro to the U.S. dollar. Our historical financial information and our quarterly report on Form 10-Q, our annual report on Form 10-K and our earnings press release has been translated to reflect this change, as if it had been previously reported in U.S. dollars. As a result, all monetary references in today’s call will be in U.S. dollars, unless otherwise noted. I’ll now cover some of the key financial aspects of the quarter, and then I’ll pass the call over to Jimmy. In Q1, we achieved $59 million and increase of almost $32 million relative to the fourth quarter. In Q1 pulp pricing was up and solid demand across all markets led to higher sales volumes. Pulp list prices rose in the quarter to $925 per ton in Europe and $760 per ton in China as of the end of Q1. On average list prices were up close to $20 per ton in both the markets. Also positively affecting EBITDA this quarter were the impact of favorable foreign exchange movements on our Canadian dollar cost and lower SG&A cost. In addition, not having a major maintenance and no restructuring costs in the quarter further contributed…

Jimmy S.H. Lee

Management

Thanks David. Good morning everyone. Let me start by saying we are very pleased with our first quarter results compared to Q4. Pulp prices were up and our sales volumes increased significantly. The success of our Blue Mill project is also reflected in our results as Stendal strong production led the way in achieving record pulp production and record electricity sales volumes. In the first quarter, steady demand pushed average NBSK list prices up across all markets. In Europe, the quarterly average list price rose to $920 per ton, while the Chinese quarterly average list price were up to $753 per ton. In March, NBSK produced inventories were at 28 days, down one day from February. At these inventory levels, the NBSK market is considered to be imbalance. It is worth noting that inventory levels came down despite the logistical issue facing certain Canadian producers, which limited sales and force producers to build finished good inventory. Specifically extreme winter conditions in North America, which created unreliable railcar availability through the winter, while currently Canadian railcars mandated priority for grain shipments continues to see really limit railcar availability for pulp shipments. And in February, container truck drivers went on strike at the port of Vancouver, which effectively stop all pulp shipments through the port from most of Q1. The truckers are now back at work, but the cargo backlog will take weeks to unwind. Not surprisingly given the new capacity that is coming online, the March hardwood pulp inventories are up three days from February at 48 days. I will speak a little bit more about this in a moment. NBSK list prices in April are $130 in North America, $925 in Europe, and $750 in China. We believe that despite the slightly lower April prices in China that low customer…

Operator

Operator

(Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from the line of Paul Quinn, RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead. Paul C. Quinn – RBC Dominion Securities, Inc.: Yes, thanks very much, good morning. Just a question on, you referenced the March stats that show softwood in balance yet we're seeing, I would say, the start of some price weakness in China. How do you reconcile those two, and what do you expect China for the balance in Q2.

Jimmy S.H. Lee

Management

If you look at the situation clearly we believe that the weakness in prices driven by more psychology than anything else. I think everybody's stock in the market down clearly of course from the buyers perspective in China, they are hesitant to buy because everybody is telling them prices will come off. And playing into the situation clearly is the fact that certain not necessarily NBSK producers, but also the Russian as you know NBSK producers because of whatever reason logistical issues as you know as well as other reasons have announced significant price decreases. There's been others which are followed as a result. But I think if you look at the European and North American situation clearly prices have held up relatively. Well, and at the same time we know that the customer inventory levels certainly from what I can gather, seems to be pretty much at the lower end. We know in terms of our own production inventory levels side from the Celgar situation because of the port and others which of course everyone is quite familiar, certainly in terms of our German operations the inventory levels are very low. Compared to any other kind of similar type of quarters going into the early part of this year. So I think this is not because this is really I would say it’s a psychological driven price weakness more than anything rather than and absolute pure demand or supply, Paul. Paul C. Quinn – RBC Dominion Securities, Inc.: Okay and then just earlier this week we heard from International Paper regarding their Ilim operation in Brask, and they were describing the startup of that machine as challenging which - but it seems to have been gaining traction and operating rates are 70% and they expect to get that back fully operating by the end of the year. Do you think that have an effect on the market at all?

Jimmy S.H. Lee

Management

No, I think that basically the incremental increase in their production coupled with the fact that of course you're getting new capacity being started up particularly and the tissue area will support really that incremental tons coming into the market. So we’re pretty confident that increase in supply will not really have a big impact. Paul C. Quinn – RBC Dominion Securities, Inc.: Okay and just lastly a comment I welcome your difference of opinion with just about every other company out there that seems to be very cautious on price, and I'm definitely cautious on price going forward, but - so it sounds like your view is additional hardwood capacity is not going to effect softwood pricing. I'm hoping you are right so best of luck in the quarter.

Jimmy S.H. Lee

Management

Thanks Paul.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Andrew Kuske from Credit Suisse. Please go ahead. Andrew M. Kuske – Credit Suisse: Thank you, good morning I guess questions for Jimmy. And it’s just if you could just give us some perspective on your thoughts and your feelings about the cycle currently, and how it feels, say, versus past cycles. Are we at a point where you feel like you're going to do more mid-cycle numbers or were you trending towards more of a peak cycle? Because the prices would really imply something more on a peak basis?

Jimmy S.H. Lee

Management

Yes, but I mean if you look at the pricing from a European perspective really from a Euro, it certainly not at peak prices, so yes in dollar terms yes certainly it is near to what historic peak pricing has been. But at the same time underlying that of course is the significant increase in discounts which really do not reflect the existing mill that presently the producers are getting. The other fact I think is a little bit different in terms of this cycle that people are not maybe focusing on is the fact that this probably is the first cycle that I’ve seen were pretty much all the mills have run right through. I’m talking about the marginal mills that typically have taken market related downtime, this cycle they did not. And that’s because they have been owned by different group and it’s a significant amount of tons, which of course continue to run through the cycle. And considering that these have been running inventory levels at the producer side has continued to be drawn down. And if you look at the impacts of the ports strike on the railcar situation even I was expecting that inventory levels would actually build because of that, but surprisingly that was actually an inventory drop. That is a very positive development in my mind and it clearly shows the demand side is strong and supply is limited. Now unlike past cycles when prices are been high, what you always have is these marginal mills which are taking curtailments all of a sudden starting to come back into the market. And therefore forcing the cycle again to drop and we go back to the cyclical situation that industry as typically been accustomed to. Now we don’t know what the impact of really…

Jimmy S.H. Lee

Management

I really haven’t looked at the numbers recently, but of course I know that based on the production problems – many of these marginal facilities. The cost, the operating cost is significantly high and of course that isn’t really the main barrier I think in terms of the market right now. I think what is really important to understand is that you have everybody running and inventory levels are still dropping. And this will continue to build pricing momentum rather than really a weakness. And at the same time these guys ramp through the weak cycle. So even though they were losing money, they continue to operate. So we know that no matter what the pricing situation is going to be its likely that these guys will continue to run like they did. And that is why I view this particularly cycle very much differently than of the other current cycle that we’ve seen recently. Andrew M. Kuske – Credit Suisse: Okay, that’s very helpful thank you.

Operator

Operator

(Operator Instructions) Your next question comes from the line of Andrew Shapiro Lawndale Capital. Your line is now open. Andrew E. Shapiro – Lawndale Capital Management LLC: Hi, thank you, a few questions. And then I’ll back out. You made some money on the equity, money raised this quarter, have you already, and to what extent, downstreamed equity dollars down into Stendal, and did your joint venture partner coparticipate or what has our – Mercer's ownership percentage in Stendal increased up to now?

David M. Gandossi

Management

Yes, Dave here. Yes, so we have not downstreamed anybody yet we’re anticipating doing that either late in the third quarter or really in the fourth quarter. As we disclosed in our offering material where we are going to put €10 million in as part of our commitments from the amendment that we did in 2009, we are currently negotiating with our minority partner and working with the banks on our structure. And we’ll just have to update you as that progresses. Andrew E. Shapiro – Lawndale Capital Management LLC: Okay. And the log shipments due to the port strike and all that - absent the port strike, were you guys shipping or did you have, were you using the full container capacity up, whereby this, we'll call it rollback, into the current quarter of all the lost shipments pushes something from this quarter into the next quarter? In other words, is there a makeup in some incremental cash flow and revenues we ought to see as a result of the strike now being ended, or is it, in a sense, rolled forward constantly and thus permanently lost?

David M. Gandossi

Management

No, it will, I would expect would be pretty much caught up by the end of the second quarter, Andy. So if we left 21,000 tons behind current EBITDA margins there is sort of $4.5 million to $5 million it will flip from quarter one and to quarter two on those tons will be my guess. Andrew E. Shapiro – Lawndale Capital Management LLC: Okay. And since you are talking about a NAFTA claim litigation timing for the beginning of the court case itself to be mid-2014 and as we speak it is now May. Are there any particular milestones, hearings, timing that is already scheduled, in this case, for presentation of each party's case?

David M. Gandossi

Management

Yes, so milestone for us was, we filed our memorial which is a massive document with all of our action figures and expert testimony and justification of damages and so on. Canada now has the period of time I think it’s three months, two or three months to respond and file there is and then there is questions replies back and forth a few times with arbitration in person interviews early in the 2015. Andrew E. Shapiro – Lawndale Capital Management LLC: Okay. And when did you make the filing for the three-month time, when did start clicking away?

David M. Gandossi

Management

Our memorial I guess three weeks ago. Andrew E. Shapiro – Lawndale Capital Management LLC: Okay. And is that a matter of public records in Canada.

David M. Gandossi

Management

No, it’s not at this stage now. Andrew E. Shapiro – Lawndale Capital Management LLC: Okay, not at this stage. Great. And the last thing is, how big is the facility in Austria, I guess it was, that Jimmy referred to where there is some unexpected downtime, lost production, and how long might that kind of remodel or construction take?

Jimmy S.H. Lee

Management

We think it’s an integrated mill right now and they have restarted one of their older small recovery folder, so our estimate of the impact from a market pulp perspective is around somewhere in the order about 14,000 tons per month type of estimate. Andrew E. Shapiro – Lawndale Capital Management LLC: Okay, 14 a months. How many months is fixing this kind of problem generally take.

Jimmy S.H. Lee

Management

Well, I mean it’s going to take many months, we think probably it would be a year maybe little bit more. Andrew E. Shapiro – Lawndale Capital Management LLC: Okay, great.

David M. Gandossi

Management

Great, thanks no more questions.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of David Quezada from Raymond James. Please go ahead. David Quezada – Raymond James Ltd.: Thanks, good morning guys. Just a quick question for you, and I apologize if this was addressed earlier, could you – and I know the Blue Mill Project is complete and was successful. Do you have any other sort of discretionary CapEx projects worth discussing over the next 12 to 18 months?

Jimmy S.H. Lee

Management

Gentlemen, we got a few things I’m pretty excited about we are building a new toll oil – the first tall oil plant for Rosenthal as I think as a lot of listeners now we used to – and Stendal is our only mill of the tall oil plant, we used to ship soap from Rosenthal to Stendal and then we got so good at (indiscernible) Stendal that they fully utilizing and we increased the capacity of Stendal, so they are pretty fully loaded with around soaps, so we’re building a second tall oil plant at Rosenthal. So Celgar focused this year is on their chip screen which is one piece of equipment that we think has a really big impact, positive impact if you modernize that, so that’s underway. And I guess the other really big focus for us is on our – on the wood side here in Europe we got a full core perhaps on all sort of strategies that not only will help us reduce our wood cost here at Europe, but also help us develop if you like bigger trading business or bigger footprint that contributes to lower wood cost, but also provide some margin for us as well. So lots to talk about in the coming years, things like railcar logistics we run about 300 railcar in Germany, so we’re focusing on that fleet, finding a way to get a deeper reach, lower the cost and those kinds of things. So in early days that quite excited about it, and none of it's really heavy capital but it's all quite accretive, we think, and strategically we’re very excited about the wood strategy in particular. David Quezada – Raymond James Ltd.: And it’s a good color, thank you very much.

Operator

Operator

And we have no further questions at this time I’ll turn the call back over to the presenters.

Jimmy S.H. Lee

Management

Well, I thank everyone for coming to today’s call and thank you.

Operator

Operator

This concludes today’s call. You may now disconnect.