Earnings Labs

Mohawk Industries, Inc. (MHK)

Q4 2019 Earnings Call· Fri, Feb 14, 2020

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning. My name is Lisa and I'll be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Mohawk Industries Fourth Quarter 2019 Earnings Conference Call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speakers' remarks, there will be a question-and-answer period. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, ladies and gentlemen, this conference is being recorded today, February 14, 2020. Thank you. I would now like to introduce Mr. Ken Huelskamp. You may begin your conference.

Ken Huelskamp

Analyst

Thank you. Good morning everyone and welcome to the Mohawk Industries quarterly investor conference call. Today, we'll update you on the company's results for the fourth quarter of 2019 and the full year as well as provide guidance for the first quarter of this year. I'd like to remind everyone that our press release and statements that we make during this call may include forward-looking statements as defined by the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 which are subject to various risks and uncertainties, including but not limited to those set forth in our press release and the periodic filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. This call may include a discussion of non-GAAP numbers. For a reconciliation of any non-GAAP to GAAP amounts, please refer to our Form 8-K and the press release in the Investors section of our website. The key speakers today are Jeff Lorberbaum, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; Chris Wellborn, Chief Operating Officer; and Glenn Landau, Chief Financial Officer. I will now turn the call over to Jeff for his opening remarks. Jeff?

Jeff Lorberbaum

Analyst

Thank you, Ken. Our fourth quarter adjusted results were as we expected with sales flat to last year, operating income of $205 million or 8.4% of sales and EPS of $2.25. For the year, our sales were $10 billion, adjusted operating income was $938 million or 9.4% of sales and EPS was $10.04. Our cash generation remained strong with operating and free cash flow for the quarter of about $440 million and $300 million. For the year, operating and free cash flow were about $1.4 billion and $870 million. Our leverage is approaching historical lows, which provides us the flexibility to pursue additional opportunities. In the period, we bought back approximately $23 million of stock for a total of $375 million since authorized. We anticipated our business -- as we anticipated, our business remained challenged by soft demand, greater competition and reduced production volume. In the US markets continued to be influenced by the strong dollar and the impact of LVT on other product categories. Consumer confidence remained high and lower US interest rates are positively influencing new and existing home sales. US tariffs on clickable LVT from China were ascended in the fourth quarter and market pricing has declined for these products. Imports of ceramic tile from China dropped off substantially in the fourth quarter and shipments from other countries have not offset, which we believe is due to soft demand and a reduction in US ceramic inventories. Competition has increased in our global markets impacting our pricing and mix as we leverage higher investments in sales and marketing to drive growth. Many countries where we operate are stimulating their economies with lower interest rates to encourage greater consumer spending and economic growth this year. In the near term we still anticipate continued pressure in our markets and product categories. Throughout the period we implemented changes to increase sales and reduce costs. We've enhanced our LVT manufacturing in the US and Europe and realigned our US carpet operations. We have decreased our ceramic production and inventories and are taking out a wood flooring plant in the United States and in Europe. We are reducing the complexity of our operations, improving processes to reduce costs and increasing automation to improve efficiencies. We continue to improve the productivity and volume of our new LVT, US countertop, Russian sheet vinyl and European carpet tile investments. Our acquisitions in Australian and Brazil are installing state-of-the-art equipment that will expand their product portfolios. We are introducing new design and performance innovations to enhance our market position and broaden our customer base. To promote both new and existing products we're making higher levels of sales and marketing investments. For a review of our financial performance during the period, I'll turn the call over to Glenn.

Glenn Landau

Analyst

Thank you, Jeff and good morning, everyone. Moving right into our financial performance and year-over-year bridges, as Jeff shared in the fourth quarter, total Company net sales were $2.4 billion, down 1% compared to prior year as reported and off approximately 2% on a constant basis, which we define as adjusted for FX and days. For the full year 2019, total Company net sales were flat compared to 2018, as reported and up 2% on a constant basis. Organic growth in the legacy businesses was down 3% in the fourth quarter versus prior year on a constant basis and down 2% for the full year compared to 2018, also on a constant basis. In terms of earnings, the Company's adjusted operating income was $205 million in the fourth quarter, or 8.4% off 140 basis points from the fourth quarter of last year, largely due to weaker volume and price mix, only partially offset by improved productivity including lower start-up costs. With that said, the Company's year-over-year decline in margins improved on a sequential basis by 100 basis points, which now represents four consecutive quarters of improvement. Bridging from the prior-year fourth quarter adjusted operating earnings were impacted by number one lower overall volume of $10 million, largely in our Global Ceramic and Flooring North America segments and associated market-related downtime costs of $4 million, all taken in Global Ceramics to match our supply with our demand. Number two, a modest increase in inflation of $3 million due to higher wages and benefits, partially offset by lower raw materials. Number three an erosion of price-mix of $24 million, largely in our Flooring Rest of the World segment following easing input costs, and $11 million higher spending in SG&A and other due to investments in sales talent and marketing to drive sales.…

Chris Wellborn

Analyst

Thanks, Glenn. In our Global Ceramic segment, most of our markets faced a combination of soft demand and excess industry capacity that is compressing market prices and margins. During the quarter, our US ceramic business remained under pressure from LVT taking share and high industry inventories from ceramic purchases ahead of tariffs. Additionally, to align our own inventory levels, we meaningfully reduced production in our North American ceramic plants, which increased our cost. We have started to see some trends that should benefit our business in 2020. Compared to the prior year fourth quarter, total US ceramic imports declined 17% with Chinese ceramic imports falling 90%. Lower interest rates and improving new and existing home sales should also benefit the market this year. To improve our sales, we are rolling out multiple new products and adding sales representatives and design consultants in major markets. Our new collections aimed at replacing imports are gaining momentum. To increase productivity and reduce cost for our customers, we have streamlined ordering processes and made picking up orders at our service centers faster and easier. We continue to enhance our showrooms and galleries to better communicate the beauty and performance of our ceramic products. During the fourth quarter, we initiated manufacturing of our new click tile in multiple sizes and designs. A proprietary product has been tested in both residential and commercial applications and has received positive reviews for faster and less expensive installation that is able to be walked on the same day. We are launching click tile at our trade show this quarter and have already received commitments from major customers. We are expanding our mosaic and wall tile offerings to meet growing demand for these categories. Our quartz countertop sales continued to increase as we ramp up the productivity and throughput at…

Jeff Lorberbaum

Analyst

Thank you, Chris. Market conditions remain challenging across most of our businesses and geographies. In response, we are adjusting our business strategies, enhancing our product offering and restructuring operations and are increasing our investments in sales and marketing, expanding our commercial participation and enhancing both our premium and value collections. We are bringing new products innovations and categories to the market that will broaden our distribution in the new channels and geographies. Our new LVT countertop, sheet vinyl and carpet tile plants are improving their productivity as we invest to expand our customer base and sales volume. Our LVT manufacturing capacity grows with higher speeds and efficiency. We are enhancing designs and features and increasing sales of our rigid and flexible offering. We are limiting the traditional inventory build that we typically do in the first quarter as we manage our production with market demand. Taking all this into account our EPS guidance for the first quarter of 2020 is $1.90 to $2.00 excluding any one-time charges. LVT growth, exchange rate and excess global capacity continue as headwinds for our business. We are executing specific initiatives to adapt to shifting consumer preferences, changing markets and competitive pressure. For the full year of 2020, we expect that our actions to increase sales and distribution, reduce costs and enhance utilization of our new plants will deliver improved results year-over-year with performance accelerating during the second half of the year. Our balance sheet should continue to improve with ongoing cash generation and we remain focused on delivering long-term value to our shareholders. We'll now be glad to take your questions.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. [Operator Instructions] And our first question today comes from the line of Philip Ng from Jefferies. Your line is open.

Philip Ng

Analyst

Good morning.

Jeff Lorberbaum

Analyst

Good morning.

Philip Ng

Analyst

Your comments on LBT in Europe sounded pretty promising on the manufacturing front. So I'm just curious, are you making money with that line yet. And with the success you're seeing on the manufacturing front out there, are you still on track to breakeven in North America early 2020?

Jeff Lorberbaum

Analyst

In Europe, we have three lines. the two old ones are operating as we expect and are doing well. The third one is not at the level we would like it to, but it's improving and we expect it to be profitable as we go through the year as well as the US line.

Philip Ng

Analyst

Okay. Any more color in terms of the timing on the US line in terms of getting profitable?

Chris Wellborn

Analyst

It's going to happen during the year.

Philip Ng

Analyst

Okay. And then just one last one for me on the cash flow. Glenn, you were kind enough to give us free cash flow guidance last year. Any color on how we should think about 2020, some of the big moving pieces, whether it's working capital, CapEx? And then just given your balance sheet is in really good shape and cash flow still quite strong, are you guys open to buying back more stock?

Glenn Landau

Analyst

Let me speak to the first part of that and I'll just say that we had a great cash flow year and we expect cash flow to remain strong into next year and the ability to improve our balance sheet is apparent.

Philip Ng

Analyst

A word about on buybacks.

Glenn Landau

Analyst

On buybacks, Jeff.

Jeff Lorberbaum

Analyst

The buybacks, we have $125 million left. We'll continue buying against it and we'll evaluate it when we use it up.

Operator

Operator

And our next question comes from the line of Michael Rehaut from JPMorgan. Your line is open.

Michael Rehaut

Analyst

Thanks. Good morning everyone. First question, I appreciate the kind of directional guidance for the year in terms of your outlook for improved results with acceleration in the back half. I was curious as to what that assumes from a top line perspective either by segment or on a consolidated basis. But just trying to get a sense of how you're thinking about sales growth for the year and if also there would be an acceleration in the back half there.

Jeff Lorberbaum

Analyst

Yes, I appreciate you like more detailed information, but we give quarter guidance and we give you a direction, but we don't detail the rest of it and we're not going to do it now.

Michael Rehaut

Analyst

All right. I had to try, I guess, but appreciate that. I guess secondly you've increased or you continue to take action around some of the restructuring and this is kind of an ongoing story as you continue to adjust the conditions. We've heard about the consolidation of the carpet operations going back to be the first half of 2019 I think initially the expectations were around some of those benefits coming through in the back half of '19 and obviously as you shut those plants down, we would presume that there is some amount of cost benefit on the onset. So just trying to understand how those costs are flowing through or at least the cost savings are flowing through. You highlighted the fact that there is things that are in inventory that continue to need to be worked through. But at the same time, I would have thought that some of those cost benefits might have come even in the back half of 2019.

Jeff Lorberbaum

Analyst

Like we said, Mike, really we finished the carpet restructuring largely in the back half of 2019 and due to the timing of implementation and the inventory flow through of the costs we're talking about a full run rate impact in the third quarter. Yeah, there is a slow ramp-up, but the full impact that's meaningful will be closer to the start of the third quarter.

Michael Rehaut

Analyst

Okay. Great. Thanks very much.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Mike Dahl from RBC Capital Markets. Your line is open.

Mike Dahl

Analyst

Hi. Thanks for taking my questions and for all the details so far. First question, Glenn, thanks for outlining the LVT rebates. I guess, just asking more specifically, so I guess the $0.15 roughly in terms of benefits for the year, you said spread over three quarters. How much is included in the first quarter?

Glenn Landau

Analyst

The first quarter is the lion's share, but it's over three quarters. It started in the first…

Jeff Lorberbaum

Analyst

It's offsetting the inventories. We have high inventories that you have with long supply chains. And so the majority of it's going to offset the price decreases that we've already implemented and as the inventory flows through they match up.

Glenn Landau

Analyst

It's in our guidance, it's spread over three quarters. And like I said and like Jeff saying it's largely offset by the inventory value on hand.

Mike Dahl

Analyst

Okay, that's helpful. And just the second question following up on that would be just given the price declines following the exclusions, you're saying it's offsetting the rebates in the first few quarters. But on a go-forward basis since the rebates kind of go away, the price declines, I guess, don't necessarily, how should we think about the net effect beyond the initial quarter or two where you have the offset from the rebates?

Glenn Landau

Analyst

I think the way we need to think about it is they are roughly offsetting.

Jeff Lorberbaum

Analyst

There is not -- there is not -- there is a large -- since we raised the inventory prior to the tariffs, the inventory that -- most of the inventory we sold in the year came from old pieces and we still have large inventories of what we've been purchasing through the period as it -- and so it's offsetting that.

Mike Dahl

Analyst

Right. I guess -- sorry just where I was going with that, if market pricing has reset lower are you saying that it's only impacting the legacy inventory or is this a go-forward impact from lower market pricing as well?

Jeff Lorberbaum

Analyst

The market pricing has gone down on clickable LVT and I don't see any reason it's going to change.

Mike Dahl

Analyst

Okay.

Jeff Lorberbaum

Analyst

And the products we're buying have gone down too. So the new prices are in line with the -- new selling prices and costs are aligned.

Glenn Landau

Analyst

So to the extent we're buying it, it's pretty much offset.

Mike Dahl

Analyst

Right, right. Got it, okay. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of John Baugh from Stifel. Your line is open.

John Baugh

Analyst

Thank you and good morning. Two quick questions. One, do you have a rough guess on revenue or sales basis what your market share of the US LVT market is?

Jeff Lorberbaum

Analyst

Yes. But we haven't -- we don't give out specific details on product categories.

John Baugh

Analyst

Okay. Would you have a guess, Jeff as to when you see out into the future reaching parity or any kind of rough idea, timeline?

Jeff Lorberbaum

Analyst

I don't understand the question.

John Baugh

Analyst

Well, I presume your share of US LVT sales is lower than your share, sort of, of the flooring market in general. So my question is, when would you see Mohawk in LVT, whether it's imported or made in the US, sort of match up the shares of carpet, ceramic, laminate all put together?

Jeff Lorberbaum

Analyst

It's continuing to increase, but I don't have a date when the two match up.

John Baugh

Analyst

Okay. Secondly, really quickly, you mentioned imports of ceramic from around the world into the US around 17% in Q4. Could you just remind us sort of on a normal typical year, how much import as a percentage of the US consumption. Thank you.

Jeff Lorberbaum

Analyst

Imports is a huge part of the ceramic market, maybe 70%, 75%, it's a huge part.

John Baugh

Analyst

Great. Thank you very much. Good luck.

Glenn Landau

Analyst

Thanks, John.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Justin Speer from Zelman & Associates. Your line is open.

Justin Speer

Analyst

Appreciate it. Just wanted to start -- just to get a sense from you, because the removal of the click LVT tariff was fairly recent. But I think we understand the deflationary aspect of that in the near term, but how does that affect demand for LVT and what's your view for price and demand for the non-LVT categories in the fourth quarter and what's expected in the first quarter, kind of high level?

Jeff Lorberbaum

Analyst

There are no details of that available today. Our expectation -- our guess is that LVT has approximately about a $3.5 billion part of the industry. It's growing. We think that the growth rate is slowing as the base gets bigger as we go through. It's impacting the growth rate of the other products within it as you go through. So I'm not sure we have the details that you're looking for.

Justin Speer

Analyst

Okay. So I would just keep our eye on that. But I guess within your guidance, as you unpack that there is obviously some conservatism around maybe production rates slowing. And then the other element is a variable in SG&A investment. So SG&A was up about 9.5% in the fourth quarter, up 7% for the full year. I'm just trying to get a sense for what your SG&A investment will be in 2020 recognizing that you have some cost tailwinds from restructuring efforts. But you are also investing in the business. So just trying to get a sense for how much SG&A will be up or down next year.

Glenn Landau

Analyst

Well, 2020 will be higher due to the full-year impact of our investments. We do expect higher sales in the second half. That's the target of these investments. We will evaluate as we go through the year and we'll adjust if necessary depending on the sales.

Justin Speer

Analyst

Excellent. An the last question for me is just, I didn't catch it, but on the ceramic tile bridge, what was the price mix and what was the productivity and start-up cost elements of the bridge?

Jeff Lorberbaum

Analyst

Yes, repeat the question.

Justin Speer

Analyst

The bridge, the EBIT bridge that you gave, I didn't hear price mix or the productivity elements of the ceramic tile.

Jeff Lorberbaum

Analyst

On the ceramic tile. So, on ceramic the price mix was slipped by $4 million.

Justin Speer

Analyst

Down by $4 million.

Jeff Lorberbaum

Analyst

Price mix slipped by $4 million and overall productivity and lower startups costs offset that. That was $6 million.

Justin Speer

Analyst

Perfect. Thank you, guys.

Jeff Lorberbaum

Analyst

So a little more comment on the SG&A. In the US, we're expanding the commercial sales forces, we're building markets for quartz countertops, roofing and LVT. In Europe, we're developing a new commercial sales organization to sell LVT, vinyl and carpet tile. We've invested in regional distributors, which we purchased our distribution and different pieces, which all the costs going into SG&A was offset by higher sales and margins. And Russia, we've talked about increasing stores. So there's a lot of activities of which those are only some of.

Justin Speer

Analyst

So these are growth investments and just ultimately you're -- so you're not pulling in the range. You're digging into invest to grow and ultimately you think that'll really manifest itself in growth -- better growth in the second half. Above market growth, do you think?

Jeff Lorberbaum

Analyst

I mean the markets -- we're investing to expand the areas which we think we can expand and we'll monitor as we go through the year and we also have all the new product categories and new -- the new businesses. You have to put the sales people in before you get the sales for them and the marketing monies.

Justin Speer

Analyst

That makes sense. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

And due to time constraints and to allow everyone to ask a question going further please allow yourself one question. Our next question comes from the line of Matthew Bouley from Barclays. Your line is open.

Matthew Bouley

Analyst

Hey. Thank you for taking my questions or question. Can you just provide a little more color on the comment you made around the -- how the virus in China is impacting the start up of LVT production and how that's flowing to you guys, because obviously you're ramping your own capacity? I guess the question is how reliant is Mohawk on this start-up capacity in China for year 2020 plants? Thank you.

Jeff Lorberbaum

Analyst

The information is less than perfect at this point. They go on holiday for the new year, then the people come back. So the people are not coming back at the rate they would normally come back. There are -- some operations have started, some are in partial things and some haven't started at all. And the question is how is all that going to line up and when they're going to start. Nobody has a clear view of what it's going to be. Given we have inventories in line, we can last a while before it has any impact on the business and we're having monitor it to see what's going to happen. In our business we do buy products from other countries and we manufacture ourselves. So it has less impact on us than the rest of the industry, but the whole industry has the potential of a slower service depending upon what happens.

Matthew Bouley

Analyst

Great. Thanks for the details, Jeff.

Operator

Operator

And our next question comes from the line of Susan Maklari from Goldman Sachs. Your line is open.

Susan Maklari

Analyst

Good morning. I wondered if you could talk a little bit about how you're thinking of inflation and raw materials as we go through the year. I know that you said it was a $3 million benefit as it related to the consolidated business in the fourth quarter. But how are you thinking about that as we look to 2020?

Jeff Lorberbaum

Analyst

The raw material prices in general, mostly the oil-related products, have come down. At the same time there is more aggressive pricing in the marketplace and we're assuming that the market prices are going to continue to reflect the decreases, mostly in the commodity categories and we're going to continue to participate in aggressive manner. We'll have to see how competition reacts. In some of the other places we had -- in Europe for instance, we had prices on our insulation boards come down dramatically, but so have the prices of the products in each. So we're assuming, given the excess capacities in the world today, that the changes will be reflected in market prices.

Susan Maklari

Analyst

Okay. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

And our next question comes from the line of Seldon Clarke from Deutsche Bank. Your line is open.

Seldon Clarke

Analyst

Hey. Thanks for the question. Just given all the moving parts with your various product rollouts and investments in SG&A and just how the timing of these investments relate to your production ramp, when should we expect to see some operating leverage show up on the SG&A side?

Jeff Lorberbaum

Analyst

In the second half we're expecting to see some benefits from the actions we're taking and we will keep re-evaluating them and depending upon how the markets change we will continue to adjust.

Seldon Clarke

Analyst

And are those -- operating leverage, are those savings tied to operating leverage or purely cost, kind of $30 million you're targeting?

Glenn Landau

Analyst

The $30 million of restructuring is more about cost.

Jeff Lorberbaum

Analyst

You're tying the restructuring piece with the marketing investments, they are separate.

Seldon Clarke

Analyst

Right. So I'm just trying to ask like when you should start to see some operating leverage on the SG&A side.

Jeff Lorberbaum

Analyst

We're expecting to see most -- more of the benefits about in the third quarter in the second half, we keep saying.

Seldon Clarke

Analyst

Got it, okay. Appreciate the question. Thanks.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Tim Wojs from Baird. Your line is open.

Tim Wojs

Analyst

Hey guys. Good morning.

Jeff Lorberbaum

Analyst

Good morning.

Tim Wojs

Analyst

Just a clarification. So SG&A is up and is expected to be up over the next few quarters as you're investing in to grow sales. But the gross profit was actually up in Q4 for the first time in, I think, six or seven quarters. So should we expect that that gross profit can actually grow a little bit and you're reinvesting that in SG&A now and that's really what's driving some of the year-over-year EBIT margin compression? Is that the right way to look at it?

Jeff Lorberbaum

Analyst

You answer what he wants.

Glenn Landau

Analyst

I think we stated broadly, we expect 2020 to improve over this year, our overall results back-end weighted to the second half and that's broad based. It's based on our initiatives and the pass-through of the costs. So SG&A is a function of that and ultimately the trend should continue.

Tim Wojs

Analyst

Okay.

Jeff Lorberbaum

Analyst

On the cost side, we're expecting the restructuring pieces we've done to benefit at the same time, the increased volume through the new plants should reduce the cost and help the margins in those also.

Tim Wojs

Analyst

Okay. Okay. That sounds good. And then just sneaking another one in. What's the cost inflation outlook in ceramic?

Glenn Landau

Analyst

Again, we've talked about that several times in ceramic and that's really overseas. That is largely some raw material, but energy costs that are driven by the Eastern European facilities and fixed government pricing.

Jeff Lorberbaum

Analyst

Yeah, I think in Europe we expect maybe a little relief on some of the energy increases this year.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Keith Hughes from SunTrust. Your line is open.

Keith Hughes

Analyst

Thanks. Questions on North America ceramic, in light of the fall in imports as you had identified, is that -- I guess my question is where does the channel inventory stand now? When do you think that will be more balanced? I know it's been out of over-inventory for sometimes.

Jeff Lorberbaum

Analyst

Keith, we don't know -- we don't have the data to see the inventory exactly. What we know is that the imports, which is a huge piece of the market came down 17% in the quarter and the imports from China dropped off altogether. So we expect that it's a combination of inventories in this channel coming down and softness in the market.

Keith Hughes

Analyst

Is this still something that's going to affect the first half…

Jeff Lorberbaum

Analyst

It's just hard to tell because --

Keith Hughes

Analyst

Hard to tell.

Jeff Lorberbaum

Analyst

All we can really see is the amount of inventory coming in to the country. But we don't have a sense yet exactly the size of the inventory in the channel.

Keith Hughes

Analyst

I understand. Thank you.

Jeff Lorberbaum

Analyst

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Michael Wood from Nomura Instinet. Your line is open.

Michael Wood

Analyst

Hi, good morning. Just wanted to talk about that ceramics import data. If I look at it historically it is down considerably fourth quarter year-over-year although it's still higher than the fourth quarter in '17 and '16. So I'm just curious how you're looking at that level of imports and how you're thinking where it should be. I mean, is this a level a healthy amount of import activity currently that we can sustain?

Jeff Lorberbaum

Analyst

Well, what we believe is that as you got into 2019 and when the tariffs were announced on the Chinese product prior to those going to effect there was, we believe, a significant increase in pre-buys related to that. In addition, as they replace the Chinese inventory with other countries, you had a combination of Chinese inventories in the system plus new products that they were purchasing to replace it which elevated those inventories and sort of, we believe, gave a sort of a thoughts view of how much the industry was growing. We don't know exactly last year, but we think it probably declined 3% to 5% -- would be, but it's just a guess.

Michael Wood

Analyst

Okay, thank you.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Truman Patterson from Wells Fargo. Your line is open.

Truman Patterson

Analyst

The question for me, the capacity that you all have coming online previously earlier last year, you said you had about $1.2 billion coming online in 2019 and 2020. Could you just give us an update of how much is coming online in 2020 and possibly 2021? Remind us which products and categories. And then just one item for clarification. The LVT rebate, if I'm hearing you correctly in the first quarter, it will probably be somewhere around maybe $0.10 benefit to EPS.

Glenn Landau

Analyst

Well, again, what we said is that's the total rebate which will be largely offset by inventory and lower pricing. So, again, it's immaterial, but it's in the guidance.

Truman Patterson

Analyst

Okay. And then the capacity.

Jeff Lorberbaum

Analyst

The new plants are they -- the different pieces. We have LVT which is still ramping up that will ramp up all through this year. We have the Russian sheet vinyl plant, which is running -- it's positively helping the business now, but it still has -- it's only used about 30% of the capacity as we push it into the marketplace. We have the carpet tile business, which we're developing an entire commercial sales organization, which is also going to sell vinyl and LVT in Europe. So it's ramping up. It takes a while to develop the customers and pieces. We put in a new capacity in Brazil to put in higher end products. We have capacity in Eastern Europe to make low-end ceramic, which expands our market there, is ramping up. We have the quartz plant in the United States that's running about three shifts today, but it's building inventory and also pushing it in. Over time that would go to four shifts and the productivity and inventories -- the productivity and throughput will go up. And all of them we have to get the mix aligned because you start out selling more lower-quality products to get more volume through the plants and it's going to take time to develop those as we go through. So they're all working through they system at different rates.

Truman Patterson

Analyst

Okay, thank you. Is that still about $1.2 billion that you're bringing online over the next couple of years?

Jeff Lorberbaum

Analyst

I mean part of it's already on. So what's happening is, some of the upside is getting offset by decreases in our legacy businesses. So the legacy businesses have declines and it's offsetting some of the gains in the new pieces.

Truman Patterson

Analyst

Okay. Okay, thank you.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Kathryn Thompson from Thompson Research Group. Your line is open.

Brian Biros

Analyst

This is actually Brian Biros on for Kathryn. Thank you for taking my question. I wanted to ask a follow-up on the coronavirus and I guess the supply chain impact. TRG industry contacts are telling us that the supply chain has not really yet been meaningfully impacted. But if the manufacturing stoppages are extended another three to four weeks, that could then impact shipments about three to five months from now. Actually wanted to see if you guys think that logic makes sense and maybe any color on what you're hearing from manufacturers from either Vietnam or South Korea on the impact to their supply chain.

Jeff Lorberbaum

Analyst

I think that's close to what we said. We said that right now it's difficult to say how fast it's going to come up that there are huge inventories in the chain over different times that it depends on each piece. So typically there is anywhere from four to seven months of inventory through the channels and the stuff coming through, and in that you have some that have low parts and some that have high parts across the industry. So depending upon what it is and each piece and how fast the part comes up, it depends on the time. There could be people on the channel with less than that and they could be impacted with a few weeks' worth of delays. The non-Chinese production and the surrounding countries, some of it or a significant part of it also uses inputs coming out of China. So if the inputs don't come up, it could affect those also. So at this point, it's really difficult to know what's going to happen and the impact. It depends on the inventory levels of any individual SKUs at this point. As most people when they buy from there, there is the Chinese New Year where they shut down. So you have the product that was bought in anticipation of that still flowing across the water coming in. And so it still comes back to how fast it's going to pick up and what's the timing of the new production is going to -- production coming up and nobody has any idea.

Brian Biros

Analyst

Got it. Thanks for the color.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of John Lovallo from Bank of America. Your line is open.

John Lovallo

Analyst

Hey guys. Thank you for fitting me in here. I just want to make sure that I understand your outlook seems to imply year-over-year operating margin expansion at least in 3Q and 4Q, is that correct?

Glenn Landau

Analyst

Yes.

John Lovallo

Analyst

Thanks.

Operator

Operator

And our final question today comes from the line of Laura Champine from Loop Capital. Your line is open.

Laura Champine

Analyst

Thanks for taking my question. If we look at your new production of LVT in the US, how competitively do you think you'll be able to price that product relative to Chinese competition and how does that influence your ability to get close to full capacity by the end of the year?

Jeff Lorberbaum

Analyst

We think when it's fully optimized that we'll be able to compete with the world marketplaces. At the same time our goal isn't to sell all commodity product. Our goal is to sell value-added products that have a higher average mix which will help -- which will allow us to meet the return goals that we have.

Laura Champine

Analyst

Got it. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

I would now like to turn the call back over to Mr. Lorberbaum for closing remarks.

Jeff Lorberbaum

Analyst

While reacting to the market conditions, we see excess capacities in the market continuing and we'll have to continue to react to competition in the marketplaces as they evolve. There are a lot of indicators that many of the markets around the world are expecting the economies to get better and improve. We have a lot of -- a lot going on to increase the utilization of our new plants, which we think will help the second half as the throughputs go up, which will allow the cost to come down and also the mix to improve over time. We think we're doing the right things to react to the market and invest in the categories to increase our business level during these times. We appreciate you taking your time and listening to us. Have a nice day.

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes today conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.