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Transcript
OP
Operator
Operator
Good day and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the AG Mortgage Investment Trust Inc. fourth quarter 2024 and full year earnings conference call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. After management’s remarks, there will be a question and answer session. In order to ask a question during the session, please press the star key followed by the number one on your telephone. Please be advised that today’s conference is being recorded. If you require any further assistance, please press star, then zero. I’d now like to turn the call over to Jenny Neslin, General Counsel for the company. Please go ahead.
JN
Jenny Neslin
Management
Thank you. Good morning everyone and welcome to the full year and fourth quarter 2024 earnings call for AG Mortgage Investment Trust. With me on the call today are TJ Durkin, our CEO and President; Nic Smith, our Chief Investment Officer; and Anthony Rosiello, our Chief Financial Officer. Before we begin, please note that the information discussed in today’s call may contain forward-looking statements. Any forward-looking statements made during today’s call are subject to certain risks and uncertainties which are outlined in our SEC filings, including under the headings, Cautionary Statement Regarding Forward-Looking Statements, Risk Factors, and Management’s Discussion and Analysis. The company’s actual results may differ materially from these statements. We encourage you to read the disclosure regarding forward-looking statements contained in our SEC filings, including our most recently filed Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2023 and our subsequent reports filed from time to time with the SEC. Except as required by law, we are not obligated and do not intend to update or to review or revise any forward-looking statement whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. During the call today, we will refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures. Please refer to our SEC filings for reconciliations to the most comparable GAAP measures. We will also reference the earnings presentation that was posted to our website this morning. To view the slide presentation, turn to our website, www.agmit.com and click on the link for the Q4 2024 earnings presentation on the home page. Again, welcome to the call, and thank you for joining us today. With that, I’d like to turn the call over to TJ.
TD
TJ Durkin
Management
Thank you Jenny. I’m pleased to report our fourth quarter and full year financials which show our continued execution of our core business strategy and industry-leading results. We were able to deliver these strong outcomes amidst a challenging macroeconomic backdrop, proving the company has a more differentiated strategy than the average REIT. Highlighting MITT’s financial performance during the fourth quarter, we saw book value move higher by 0.6% from $10.58 to $10.64, while paying our $0.19 dividend and producing a healthy economic return on equity of 2.4% for the quarter. For the full year 2024, we were able to increase our quarterly dividend by 5.6% earlier in the year and delivered an 11.7% economic return on equity for our shareholders. Although it is too early in our process to comment on February, book value was flat for the month of January. Now taking a step back, I’ve been reflecting on where MITT was when I became CEO in October 2022 and where MITT is today. Nearly every quarter we’ve represented earnings to you during this period, I’ve said the same thing: volatile, challenging, and turbulent market conditions, yet in spite of this, we are protecting and growing MITT’s book value. This consistent theme is due to our conviction that if we continue to execute on what we do best while also being unafraid to be dynamic and seize on compelling opportunities for growth, we can not only protect but also grow book value and in turn our earnings profile for our shareholders. We’ve remained steadfast to our disciplined, programmatic securitization strategy. In the quarter right before I became CEO, our economic leverage was 2.7 turns. Now, it’s 1.4 turns and that’s been relatively steady as we have consistently executed securitizations on a quarterly basis, controlling our outstanding warehouse balances and…
NS
Nicolas Smith
Management
Good morning and thank you, TJ. Today, I want to build upon TJ’s remarks and unpack why we believe in the MITT advantage, a topic that we have not emphasized enough in the past. We cannot talk about this topic without diving deep into TPG Angelo Gordon’s capabilities and, more specifically, the capabilities of its structured credit and specialty finance group, which provides unparalleled access, expertise and resources to MITT. I’ll take these one by one. Starting with access, TPG Angelo Gordon has an edge in access to capital, ideas and sourcing. On the capital side, we are an important counterparty to most, if not all large investment banks, along with many smaller entities that play an important role in shaping the residential finance sector. These relationships are an important conduit to some of the best opportunities in the space. While these relationships are important, we take pride in our connectivity with the broader residential finance ecosystem. This is a critical part of our sourcing advantage. We have deep relationships across this sector, ranging from the largest non-bank originators to niche venture capital pipes. Moving onto expertise, our deep bench of structured credit and mortgage finance professionals includes over four dozen professionals across trading and origination, research and analytics, asset management, banking, finance and operations, along with dedicated legal and software engineering teams. All this allows us to attack the residential mortgage finance space in ways most cannot. Our core competencies span multiple sectors of the broader residential mortgage finance segment, including non-QM, EPLs, agency [indiscernible] loans, specifically cohorts where Fannie and Freddie have punitive credit costs relative to private capital, home equity including traditional products like closed-end seconds, HELOCs along with a new and growing niche digital HELOC sector, and credit-sensitive loans, including non-performing, re-performing, scratch and dent, and…
AR
Anthony Rosiello
Management
Thank you Nic, and good morning. 2024 was a successful year for the company. Our performance captured strong asset appreciation on our investment portfolio and substantial synergies realized from the WMC acquisition. We were also very active, growing our investment portfolio by 13% to $6.7 billion, executing six securitizations, incorporating home equity loans into our product mix which has been impactful to our profitability, and lastly we successfully raised senior unsecured notes to pay off the legacy WMC convertible notes. Overall, book value increased year-over-year by 4.3%, generating an annual economic return of 11.7% for our shareholders while earnings available for distribution, or EAD of $0.76 per share covered the 2024 dividend declared of $0.75. During the fourth quarter, book value increased by approximately 0.6% to $10.64 per share, producing a 2.4% economic return when considering the $0.19 quarterly dividend. The increase in boo value was primarily driven by gains on our investment activity in home equity loans coupled with gains on portfolio hedges due to rising benchmark rates offsetting unrealized mark-to-market losses on our investment portfolio. As a result, we recorded GAAP net income available to common shareholders of approximately $8.8 million or $0.30 per share. We generated EAD of $0.18 per share for the fourth quarter. Net interest income inclusive of interest earned on our hedge portfolio was $0.66, which exceeded our operating expenses and preferred dividends of $0.46, generating earnings of $0.20 per share. Although Arc Home contributed a loss of $0.02 to EAD, there has been continued strength in volumes and improvement in margins driving Arc Home to profitability in December. We remained active during the fourth quarter, acquiring $359 million of agency-eligible loans and $153 million of home equity loans. These purchases were offset by the sale of $185 million of home equity loans where we reinvested the capital returned from the sale into non-agency RMBS collateralized by home equity. Our economic leverage ratio at quarter end was 1.4 turns, which slightly declined from 1.5 turns in September and is relatively low on a historical basis. We’ve continued to prudently manage our leverage exposure on residential mortgage loans through our programmatic securitizations, ending the quarter with only $190 million of warehouse financing outstanding. Lastly, we ended the quarter with total liquidity of approximately $137 million, consisting of $119 million of cash and $18 million of unencumbered agency RMBS. This concludes our prepared remarks, and we’d now like to open the call for questions. Operator?
OP
Operator
Operator
Thank you. [Operator instructions] We will take our first question from Bose George with KBW. Please go ahead.
BG
Bose George
Analyst
Hey guys, good morning. How would you characterize your excess capital--you know, you noted the cash and liquidity, but when you think about deployable capital, how would you characterize that?
NS
Nicolas Smith
Management
When we think about our deployable capital, we have CRE positions that will mature later this year, call it summertime into fall, and that represents probably $20 million, $25 million of equity capital returned. In addition, away from rotation, really newfound equity, when we acquired WMC, there was some inefficient financings that will roll off this summer, which will release another $25 million, $30 million of equity. Away from that, there’s another $30 million to $50 million of equity that can be rotated, so that sort of comes out to a range of, call it $75 million to $100 million that could be rotated or newly deployed into the coming year.
BG
Bose George
Analyst
Okay, great. Then just in terms of the corporate leverage, the level of preferred, etc., how are you thinking about that now? Is this a level you’re comfortable with? Any changes you need to make?
NS
Nicolas Smith
Management
I think we obviously saw the first new preferred deal come out last week, I believe, and it’s been a while there, so we’re actively monitoring the market. I mean, we’ve been running the company sort of with these ratios for quite some time now, so I think we’re comfortable--we’re obviously comfortable there and I think we’ve shown good performance in managing that overall leverage ratio to the common.
BG
Bose George
Analyst
Okay, great. Thanks.
OP
Operator
Operator
Thank you. We will take our next question from Doug Harter with UBS. Please go ahead.
ML
Marissa Lobo
Analyst · UBS. Please go ahead.
Hi, thanks. It’s Marissa Lobo on for Doug. I was hoping you could speak to us a little more about the relative attractiveness of non-QM versus home equity today and how the securitization and financing markets compare.
NS
Nicolas Smith
Management
Yes, look - I think you have to--stepping back, home equity is relatively new and we see a very large addressable market, so we think we’re in the early innings there. I think when you think about being in the early innings, oftentimes there is sort of first mover advantage, so we continue to think that that’s the case, albeit not as much as some time ago. On the non-QM side, it’s a market that continues to grow, I think maybe has grown more than others or maybe most had thought, and we still find relative value there. But as you can see from our prepared remarks, we’re sort of leaning in more on the home equity side.
ML
Marissa Lobo
Analyst · UBS. Please go ahead.
Okay, thank you. Also on the preferred, any thoughts on the preferred, given the increased cost from rolling to floating?
TD
TJ Durkin
Management
No, I mean, we obviously knew that was coming. I think as Nic mentioned, we’ve got some other financings that we see coming down the pipe this year, that I think will also help offset that increased floating rate, so we’re looking at it at a corporate level. But we’ve sort of had that floating rate switching in the model, so we’re prepared for it.
ML
Marissa Lobo
Analyst · UBS. Please go ahead.
Appreciate the answers.
OP
Operator
Operator
Thank you. Once again, if you would like to ask a question, please press the star and one on your telephone keypad now. We will take our next question from Eric Hagen with BTIG. Please go ahead.
JK
Jake Katsikis
Analyst · BTIG. Please go ahead.
Hey, good morning. This is Jake Katsikis on for Eric. Thanks for taking my questions. On Slide 14, you show that the yield on the securitized non-agency loans was 5.7%. I’m curious if you could kind of talk about what would have to happen in order for that yield to increase. Thank you.
AR
Anthony Rosiello
Management
Yes, so those are really our on-balance sheet GAAP accounting, so that’s really the securitization, so you’re going to see that’s really a function of 2021, 2022 type origination that is effectively term financed out, so that number is not going to move a lot until we either rotate out--you know, call the deals and sell the loans, etc. The ROE out to the right is probably what I would point to. That’s effectively neutralizing the lower coupon on the mortgages with obviously the cheaper financing that was issued at the time.
JK
Jake Katsikis
Analyst · BTIG. Please go ahead.
Got you, thank you. Then do you expect the cost of funds for the warehouse lines to drop further, and if that were to happen, would that potentially encourage you to get more active in building your pipeline?
AR
Anthony Rosiello
Management
I mean, we’ve definitely seen the larger investment banks get more aggressive on financing terms post the turn of the new year, so we’re actively taking advantage of that. I think it’s really just about the overall A to Z ROEs. We’re not--the warehouse is only part of the life cycle of a loan coming onto the balance sheet of MITT, so it’s really also about where securitization markets are pricing probably more so than just the gestation warehouse terms.
JK
Jake Katsikis
Analyst · BTIG. Please go ahead.
Great, thank you so much.
OP
Operator
Operator
Thank you. We will take our next question from Brad Capuzzi from Piper Sandler. Please go ahead.
BC
Brad Capuzzi
Analyst
Thank you for taking my questions. Just wanted to get high level thoughts on origination volume in Arc Home into 2025 - obviously industry origination volumes have come down in recent months, given the back-up in rates. Just wanted to get your thoughts there as we look into 2025. Thanks.
TD
TJ Durkin
Management
Yes, look - we continue to think that Arc Home’s business model is somewhat immune, or more immune than the broader mortgage market, specifically more liquid products like agencies and jumbos and gove origination. I think it’s been well publicized that the non-QM and the non-agency markets are actually growing at a good amount relative to the other spaces, and we continue to expect that to be the case. Beyond that, as we mentioned in the prepared remarks, the investment we’ve made in the growth of that company, and we expect the combination of those two to really pay dividends in the future, so our expectation and what we’ve mapped out for this year is continued growth, no matter what the market is. Obviously interest rates matter, but we think that the company will be resilient.
BC
Brad Capuzzi
Analyst
Got you, I appreciate the commentary. Then just last question from me, can you speak on your current thoughts around the dividend and just what you would need to say in your rate outlook to continue covering the dividend and EAD?
AR
Anthony Rosiello
Management
Yes, I think we’ve talked about this in the past. When we think about the dividend, we’ve really been bifurcating the company’s portfolio and sort of what we call the investment portfolio, and then obviously the equity interest in Arc Home. To Nic’s point earlier, we’ve definitely faced a headwind in terms of negative EAD contribution coming from Arc over the past, call it four to eight quarters. We’re seeing that effectively come to neutral now over December-January, so we flipped from a negative to a positive. It’s not a huge positive, right, so I think we’re sort of in this transitional phase where, let’s just call it round numbers breakeven, and then I think as we fast forward into ’25, we expect that to be more of a positive contributor. If you look back at the last year as an example of performance, I think that is the tailwind that we would need to think about having a composite EAD north of where the dividend is. I hope that answers the question.
BC
Brad Capuzzi
Analyst
Yes, that’s perfect. I appreciate it.
OP
Operator
Operator
Thank you. It appears that we have no further questions at this time. I will now turn the program back to our presenters for any additional or closing remarks.
JN
Jenny Neslin
Management
Thank you everyone for joining us and for your questions - we appreciate it, and look forward to speaking with you again next quarter. Have a great day.
OP
Operator
Operator
Thank you. This does conclude today’s presentation. Thank you for your participation. You may disconnect at any time.