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McCormick & Company, Incorporated (MKC)

Q3 2011 Earnings Call· Wed, Sep 28, 2011

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Greetings, and welcome to the McCormick's Third Quarter 2011 Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Joyce Brooks, Vice President, Investor Relations for McCormick. Thank you. Ms. Brooks, you may begin.

Joyce L. Brooks

Analyst · Akshay Jagdale with KeyBanc Capital Markets

Good morning, and welcome to our review of McCormick's third quarter financial results and latest 2011 outlook. We've posted a set of slides to accompany today's call at our website, ir.mccormick.com. With me are Alan Wilson, Chairman, President and CEO; and Gordon Stetz, Executive Vice President, CFO and Treasurer. Alan is going to begin with an update on our business and the current operating environment, and then Gordon will discuss our third quarter financial performance and latest guidance. After that, we look forward to discussing your questions. As a reminder, our presentation today contains projections and other forward-looking statements. Actual results could differ materially from those projected. The company undertakes no obligation to update or revise publicly any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or other factors. In addition, certain information that we will present today are non-GAAP measures. This includes certain financial results from 2010 that exclude items affecting comparability. We present this non-GAAP information for comparative purposes alongside the most directly comparable GAAP measures. Reconciliations of GAAP to non-GAAP measures can be found in the presentation slides for our call. It's now my pleasure to turn the discussion over to Alan.

Alan D. Wilson

Analyst · Thilo Wrede of Jefferies & Company

Thanks, Joyce. Good morning, everyone, and thanks for joining us. In the third quarter, we delivered strong top line growth and a solid profit result. In local currency, we grew sales 11%, a step up from our 5% sales increase in the first half of 2011. We're driving this growth with product innovation, expanded distribution and increased brand marketing support, along with pricing actions. We reported a double-digit increase in each of our 2 segments and in a number of our operating regions. Of particular note this quarter was a 5% increase in volume and product mix for our consumer business, which was accomplished during a period when pricing also rose 5%. The increase was led by our Americas business and was broad-based with increases in grilling products, dry seasoning mixes, authentic ethnic cuisines, Zatarain's, Simply Asia and Thai Kitchen, as well as our sales of the private label products that we produce for some of our major customers. We also had a favorable impact from customers that purchased product in anticipation of a fourth quarter price increase. On the industrial side of our business, we grew sales in local currency at a double-digit rate in each of our 3 regions, with sales in China up 30%. In markets around the world, this performance was driven by demand from quick-service restaurants and our supply of seasonings for snacks. Earnings per share was $0.69. Several factors affected profit this quarter, as Gordon will discuss in more detail, but I will share the major drivers. Positively impacting EPS this quarter were higher sales. Our cost savings for McCormick Comprehensive Continuous Improvement program, CCI, and discrete tax items. Offsetting a portion of these increases were our additional investment in brand marketing support, which was up 27% for the quarter, and a further escalation…

Gordon M. Stetz

Analyst · Thilo Wrede of Jefferies & Company

Thanks, Alan, and good morning, everyone. We are pleased with our financial performance for the third quarter. At the bottom line, we achieved $0.69 of earnings per share in the face of significant cost increases and with an increase in our investment in brand marketing support. Our earnings per share this quarter included the benefit of favorable discrete tax items. At the top line, we exceeded our projections for sales growth in many parts of our business. In total, sales for the quarter rose 16% with an 11% increase in local currency. Volume and product mix was up 6%, and the pricing actions we've taken in response to higher material costs added 5%. As seen on Slide 14, we grew consumer business sales 15%, with a 10% increase in local currency. In the Americas region, we grew consumer business sales 12% in local currency, with equal contributions from volume and product mix and from pricing. About half of the increase in volume and product mix, an estimated $10 million, was the result of customer purchases in advance of a fourth quarter price increase. This buy-in is expected to lower fourth quarter consumer sales in the Americas by $10 million. Another thing to keep in mind when projecting fourth quarter sales for this part of our business was a shift in sales from the first quarter of 2011 into the fourth quarter of 2010 for an estimated $10 million that related to customer purchases in advance of our previous price increase. Growth in a number of product lines drove the other half of the increase in volume and product mix in the Americas. During the quarter, we increased our marketing support behind core McCormick products and the Zatarain's brand. This investment drove a significant increase in our McCormick brand dry seasoning…

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our first question is from the line of Thilo Wrede of Jefferies & Company. Thilo Wrede - Jefferies & Company, Inc., Research Division: Can you give us a little bit more background, have you already filled the channel there? You talked about, I think, 9 SKUs that you have nationwide now. Is there a chance that, that will grow in the future? Any more color would be appreciated.

Alan D. Wilson

Analyst · Thilo Wrede of Jefferies & Company

Yes, without getting into too many specifics, what we -- we had a regional distribution at Sam's Club for about 2 years. We expanded that earlier this year nationally with some Grill Mates items, and then what we're talking about on this call is expansion of another 9 SKUs, predominantly in the baking area such as extracts and gravy mixes and things like that. We're real pleased with what we've seen there. We can't speculate on what might happen in the future, but we continue to grow and invest with not only that customer, but customers in a number of channels. Thilo Wrede - Jefferies & Company, Inc., Research Division: Okay. And then a question about your inventory. Is your inventory still physically increasing? Are you increasing the volume of your inventory, or are the increases now more driven by overall price increases, currency and so on? And if the physical inventory is still growing, when do you expect that to slow down or reverse?

Gordon M. Stetz

Analyst · Thilo Wrede of Jefferies & Company

The majority of the increase is driven by the cost pressures and the strategic inventory and foreign exchange. So about 45% of the increase is related to cost pressures in the environment we're in. Maybe another quarter of it is related to strategic inventory purchases and maybe another 20% is related to foreign exchange. The volume component is not as big of an issue as the cost pressures. Obviously, the environment we're in, difficult to project cost inflation. It's a volatile environment, but we certainly aren't expecting a retreat in the cost environment anytime soon. So we would expect to start to hopefully see this moderate as we go into 2011 -- I mean, 2012. Our teams are very focused, though. I don't want to say they're not focused on the volume opportunity to try and reduce inventories. So they're looking at their modeling, their safety stock assumptions, their demand planning assumptions. So it's still a big area, but we are feeling it from the cost side. Thilo Wrede - Jefferies & Company, Inc., Research Division: Okay. And then one last question about the pricing. You talked about more pricing to come. Are you expecting any major pushback from retailers as you go into the holiday season?

Alan D. Wilson

Analyst · Thilo Wrede of Jefferies & Company

We're expecting absolutely great execution by retailers as we head into the holiday season. And we have announced and implemented pricing in a number of our markets, the U.S. consumer included. So we'll see the impact of that as we go through, but we feel like we're well-positioned with our display activities, an increase in advertising, which is right on with the kinds of things that we want to drive in the holiday period. So we feel like we're well positioned for the fourth quarter.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is coming from the line of Alexia Howard of Sanford Bernstein. Alexia Howard - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., Inc., Research Division: Just a couple of questions here. A couple of quarters ago, you called out a concern about private label share gains going forward. It seems as though that hasn't played out particularly harshly. Is this less of a concern today? And why -- what do you think’s happened there?

Alan D. Wilson

Analyst · Sanford Bernstein

Well, I think what we have seen is an increase in pricing in private label, which has closed some of those gaps with the brand. Certainly, we're at some pretty high levels in terms of overall pricing points. But as I look at the public data on what's happening with private label, their pricing has increased at a rate that's higher than even the branded on a percentage basis. So I think that's part of what's going on. The other thing is I'd like to think that -- not only like to think, but I'm pretty confident, that our product innovation, our increased advertising is really helping our brands hold up in this environment. Alexia Howard - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., Inc., Research Division: That's great. And a quick follow-up on the sales in Africa that you mentioned. Are you able to quantify how much benefit you got out of the European sales growth from those sales into Africa this quarter? And could you tell us a little bit about your strategy there? Is it a strategic move? Is it an explicit investment and deployment of resources in the region, or is a bit more opportunistic and pool-based and led by local distributors?

Alan D. Wilson

Analyst · Sanford Bernstein

The first answer is, it had a very minimal impact on our results in Europe this quarter. And it is more opportunistic at this point. We have a nice business in South Africa. We think there's great opportunities. But we are working with distributors in Northern Africa in places like Morocco and Nigeria to build and grow our business. It's a business that we've had for a long time, but we're seeing some success there.

Operator

Operator

The next question is from the line of Chris Growe with Stifel, Nicolaus. Christopher Growe - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc., Research Division: Just I wanted to ask you about the -- on the industrial side of the margin in that business, I know obviously there's heavy cost inflation there. But with the volume so strong, I was surprised that the profit declined. I guess one of the things I was thinking about would be how mix played a factor into that. Was that an issue in terms of the profit result in the quarter? Or anything else we could kind of point to for that division?

Alan D. Wilson

Analyst · Chris Growe with Stifel, Nicolaus

Yes, certainly, it was a combination of all other ingredients, those non-major commodities which were a lot higher. Typically, we don't have pricing protocols on those, and so it's more of a negotiation, but they tend to balance each other out. What's happening right now is everything is up and so it's more of a negotiation to be able to implement pricing on those commodities. There absolutely was an impact in our industrial business on the mix of our business and so we sold more of the lower-margin items and less of the higher-margin items in this period, so that was impacting our sales to an extent. Gordon, you want to add on that?

Gordon M. Stetz

Analyst · Chris Growe with Stifel, Nicolaus

No, that's absolutely right. Yes. Christopher Growe - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc., Research Division: Did you indicate then that fourth quarter profits would be down? You mentioned there would be pressure still. Does that mean that you think they'll be down on the fourth quarter?

Gordon M. Stetz

Analyst · Chris Growe with Stifel, Nicolaus

Certainly, the -- as we indicated, the pricing protocols are on a lag, so that's going to put pressure on it. But the thing that can shift quarter-to-quarter is the mix. As Alan indicated, we have had some significant wins on some quick-service restaurants. I'll say that some of those are in the lower margin part of it, so whether they're down or flattish, we don't expect a strong performance in the industrial profitability in the fourth quarter. Christopher Growe - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc., Research Division: Okay, that's helpful. I just wanted to ask a question about 2012. I know you don't want to give guidance, so my question is I think you discussed or mentioned on the call you expect this heavy inflation to continue into next year. Do you expect double-digit inflation in 2012, or is that going too far at this point?

Alan D. Wilson

Analyst · Chris Growe with Stifel, Nicolaus

We do expect to see higher costs continuing into 2012. We don't see, at least in the commodities that impact us, much that's going to cause it to decline or go down. We're expecting in 2012 we’ll continue to see higher costs. Christopher Growe - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc., Research Division: And double-digit, though, may be going too far at this point to say that?

Gordon M. Stetz

Analyst · Chris Growe with Stifel, Nicolaus

Yes, we're not ready to say that yet, but certainly, you've seen it continue to creep up as we've gone through this year, that's for sure.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is from the line of Akshay Jagdale with KeyBanc Capital Markets.

Akshay S. Jagdale - KeyBanc Capital Markets Inc., Research Division

Analyst · Akshay Jagdale with KeyBanc Capital Markets

My question is more regarding the guidance. So it seems that your guidance for cost is higher than what it was before, you're saying double digits. You had a range before. And acquisition costs are going to be higher, but you didn't change EPS guidance. Is this difference just a lower tax rate, or is there something else in the SG&A line that we should be thinking of, or did I miss something?

Joyce L. Brooks

Analyst · Akshay Jagdale with KeyBanc Capital Markets

Actually, this is Joyce, your line is a little unclear, so may I ask you to repeat your question please?

Akshay S. Jagdale - KeyBanc Capital Markets Inc., Research Division

Analyst · Akshay Jagdale with KeyBanc Capital Markets

Sure. Can you hear me now, Joyce?

Joyce L. Brooks

Analyst · Akshay Jagdale with KeyBanc Capital Markets

Yes.

Akshay S. Jagdale - KeyBanc Capital Markets Inc., Research Division

Analyst · Akshay Jagdale with KeyBanc Capital Markets

Okay. Sorry, my question was regarding guidance. It seems as though your cost guidance now, you're saying it's going to be closer to 10%. Before it was just a range. And you increased your cost guidance on the acquisition, but your EPS guidance range didn't change. Does that mean that the offset, what you're expecting in terms of higher cost, is just a lower tax rate? I mean, I know you also increased your CCI guidance, but I'm just wondering if there's anything else in the SG&A that we may be missing, where you think there's an offset to these costs?

Gordon M. Stetz

Analyst · Akshay Jagdale with KeyBanc Capital Markets

Well, there's a number of factors. I mean, obviously the strong sales growth is contributing -- has helped to offset some of those as well. We've also been increasing our advertising and promotion as well to help drive sales. So it's really a combination of factors. I guess my takeaway would be that we're absorbing some of these increased costs, and we're still achieving the results that we laid out for you in the beginning of the year, and that's the strength of our underlying business that's doing that.

Akshay S. Jagdale - KeyBanc Capital Markets Inc., Research Division

Analyst · Akshay Jagdale with KeyBanc Capital Markets

That's helpful. So is it fair to say that the sales have been better than you had expected so far? And how would you characterize your gross profit performance in third quarter relative to your own expectation?

Gordon M. Stetz

Analyst · Akshay Jagdale with KeyBanc Capital Markets

Well, certainly, sales have been stronger, and gross profits, it's probably fair to say, it’s been a little more under more pressure than we had anticipated. I will say we expected it to be under pressure as we proceeded through this year, because we saw the cost increases, as we indicated earlier in the year, with the high-single-digit type numbers. So we expected those to start to occur through the third and fourth quarter. But I will say, it's gotten higher as you can tell, by the increases we've talked about on this call.

Akshay S. Jagdale - KeyBanc Capital Markets Inc., Research Division

Analyst · Akshay Jagdale with KeyBanc Capital Markets

Yes, and just one last one, if I may, on marketing spending. I was impressed that even though you've had some margin pressure on the gross profit line, you still continue to invest in your brands. Can you help us understand now with these new acquisitions, should we expect anything different in 2012? I mean, how are you feeling overall about your level of marketing support as a percentage of sales? Are you thinking to continue to move that up, and how much room is there to move it up?

Alan D. Wilson

Analyst · Akshay Jagdale with KeyBanc Capital Markets

Well, it's early to call 2012. But our pattern and our expectation is that we'll continue to increase marketing spending either slightly above or pretty much in line with our sales increases. In terms of the new brands that we've acquired, they have good marketing programs. We expect to continue to build on those and bring product innovation to them. So I would expect -- our expectation is to continue to drive our brands with marketing as we have the last several years.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is from the line of Rob Moskow with Crédit Suisse Group. Robert Moskow - Crédit Suisse AG, Research Division: A few details. Gordon, I would like it if you could give us a tax rate estimate for fourth quarter. I know you've given us an EPS range, but it could be anything from 26% to 31%, from what I can tell. Second, did you give any reason for why the transaction costs are higher on these acquisitions? What was the -- most of the time in these estimates, you should be conservative in your estimates, and this time we're running higher than expected. And then lastly, I guess for Alan, on the industrial business. A lot of us remember the restructuring of the industrial business many years ago. I think it made the organization stronger. And I'm just wondering if with your basic customers now and with the way the organization is structured, are you better prepared for this inflationary period on your non-traded commodity costs?

Gordon M. Stetz

Analyst · Thilo Wrede of Jefferies & Company

Sure. Fourth quarter, the underlying rate has been 31% as we progress through this year. That has been the constant. The more difficult component is sometimes the discrete items. But if you think of about 31% rate for the fourth quarter, and these transaction costs, a lot of them are nondeductible, that’ll push the rate up even higher, so it could be as high as 33%. So the only caveat I have is you sometimes have these discrete items that occur that can impact that. But we would expect it to be closer to a 33%-type rate based on the underlying rate of 31% and the transaction cost impact. In terms of the estimate of the due diligence costs, clearly, it went a little longer. We were anticipating this being done in the third quarter. You have to go through various regulatory filings, due diligence, et cetera with these transactions, so the only answer I can give you is that it took a little longer, it's a little more expensive than we had anticipated. That's really all that had occurred.

Alan D. Wilson

Analyst · Thilo Wrede of Jefferies & Company

In terms of the industrial question, we do believe that our strategy to focus on major significant strategic customers is the right strategy. I do believe we're well-positioned to deal with the high commodity. We continue to gain business. We continue to grow. What we saw this time, though, is – it’s something that we learned, is we have to continue to adjust our pricing protocols in a different environment. And I think we're very well positioned to do that. I know that's going to take some time and a lot of effort, but I think we're well positioned. Robert Moskow - Crédit Suisse AG, Research Division: Alan, what kind of a pushback are you getting from these strategic customers on your efforts to take your prices up?

Alan D. Wilson

Analyst · Thilo Wrede of Jefferies & Company

Well, in most cases, our customers understand the pricing pressure, but it's always a discussion, it's always a difficult conversation because we're not the only ones walking in with increased prices, and they're seeing it across the board. And just like we'd see in our customer business, they're seeing an impact with consumers as they continue to take higher pricing. I would say we're having constructive discussions, and we're working our way through these, but it's always a process and conversation.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is from the line of Mitch Pinheiro with Janney Montgomery Scott.

Mitchell B. Pinheiro - Janney Montgomery Scott LLC, Research Division

Analyst · Mitch Pinheiro with Janney Montgomery Scott

First, could you give us some idea of what the pricing actions are, the magnitude for consumer and the industrial in the fourth quarter?

Alan D. Wilson

Analyst · Mitch Pinheiro with Janney Montgomery Scott

Yes. In general, it's about a 5% increase in consumer as we go into the fourth quarter. Some items are almost nothing, some items are more like double digit, some of the commodities have really surged. Industrial, it's a little harder to pin down the specific pricing as we go into the quarter because a lot of it's commodity, depends on when customers make contract decisions and things like that. Because we'll price it based on the market at the time that we make those decisions. But the overall impact we expect is going to be in that 5% range.

Mitchell B. Pinheiro - Janney Montgomery Scott LLC, Research Division

Analyst · Mitch Pinheiro with Janney Montgomery Scott

And 5% for the combined?

Alan D. Wilson

Analyst · Mitch Pinheiro with Janney Montgomery Scott

For the combined across the board. And I know that, that kind of translates into an expectation that's about 5% in industrial as well, but that's the way we see it today.

Mitchell B. Pinheiro - Janney Montgomery Scott LLC, Research Division

Analyst · Mitch Pinheiro with Janney Montgomery Scott

Okay. How does your cost coverage look, commodity costs? How far out are you bought?

Alan D. Wilson

Analyst · Mitch Pinheiro with Janney Montgomery Scott

Well, we don't disclose specifically how far we are, and it varies by commodity. But a good part of that inventory increase are positions that we've taken that will help us into next year that are at rates that are below the current market.

Mitchell B. Pinheiro - Janney Montgomery Scott LLC, Research Division

Analyst · Mitch Pinheiro with Janney Montgomery Scott

Roughly, what percentage of your industrial business do you have a relationship where you're having like a direct pass-through, where you're buying for your customers directly?

Alan D. Wilson

Analyst · Mitch Pinheiro with Janney Montgomery Scott

That's a tough percentage for me to get to without kind of backing into it. But with most of our major customers on major commodities, we have those protocols. The thing that makes it a little hard to get to is depending on the products, the major commodities will be a big part or a smaller part of the costs that go into it. So it's just hard to quantify that.

Mitchell B. Pinheiro - Janney Montgomery Scott LLC, Research Division

Analyst · Mitch Pinheiro with Janney Montgomery Scott

Okay. As far as -- any channel mix dynamics in the consumer side that you can point out to as either different or changing?

Alan D. Wilson

Analyst · Mitch Pinheiro with Janney Montgomery Scott

Well, we're certainly seeing consumers shopping in more alternative channels like dollar and in club. That's just been a shift that's been ongoing and accelerated in this environment. That's why we feel good about our strategy to continue to expand our brand presence in those channels.

Mitchell B. Pinheiro - Janney Montgomery Scott LLC, Research Division

Analyst · Mitch Pinheiro with Janney Montgomery Scott

Okay, last question. As you look out, you were very positive earlier in the year about the pipeline for innovation, new products with your larger industrial customers. As we're entering the end of the year here, how does it look as you look out for the next 6 months?

Alan D. Wilson

Analyst · Mitch Pinheiro with Janney Montgomery Scott

The industrial pipeline’s still pretty good. And we expect that's going to continue just like we've seen. We're positive on our consumer innovation as well. Everybody recognizes, to continue to grow and to continue to deal with some of these cost pressures, we have to innovate. We have to find things that excite consumers because they're willing to spend when the items are right and priced right and really do bring innovation. So we're seeing a pretty good pipeline and continued activity with technical development in -- with our other customers.

Mitchell B. Pinheiro - Janney Montgomery Scott LLC, Research Division

Analyst · Mitch Pinheiro with Janney Montgomery Scott

I said last question. I do have one more, sorry. In your marketing spend, where are you seeing your greatest success, your best ROI?

Alan D. Wilson

Analyst · Mitch Pinheiro with Janney Montgomery Scott

Without question, it's in the digital area. It's a very effective and efficient spend. It lends itself very well to the kinds of products that we sell, the recipe marketing, the word-of-mouth and the excitement that comes with it, and we're going to continue to shift our spend more aggressively in that area.

Joyce L. Brooks

Analyst · Mitch Pinheiro with Janney Montgomery Scott

We're coming up on 9:00. We've got a number of folks still in the queue, so we'll go as long as -- we'll try to get through everybody. We'll just ask you to limit your questions, please, going forward.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is from the line of Ann Gurkin with Davenport and Company. Ann H. Gurkin - Davenport & Company, LLC, Research Division: Just want to continue the discussion on the industrial business. You talked about this just briefly a minute ago. But is there any pullback from customers as they see these higher price increases? Are you seeing any change in demand from the industrial customers?

Alan D. Wilson

Analyst · Ann Gurkin with Davenport and Company

We're not necessarily seeing a change in industrial customers and pullback, but we are seeing a shift. As a for instance, food service distributors are a big part of our business and an important part of our business because we're selling branded products that carry good margins, and that part of the segment’s under pressure. We're seeing pretty good success with our quick-service restaurants, restaurant customers.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is from Eric Katzman of Deutsche Bank.

Eric R. Katzman - Deutsche Bank AG, Research Division

Analyst · Deutsche Bank

I guess the sales looked quite good broadly across the business, so compliments to that in this environment. But just a couple of quick ones. One, I thought that the pricing in consumer is usually taken early in the year, and you try not to put something through as we kind of get right into the holiday season. So Alan, what gives you confidence that putting through pricing even on some of the basic spice stuff isn't going to be met with consumer elasticity?

Alan D. Wilson

Analyst · Deutsche Bank

We are in a little bit of a new world because it's been more than a decade since we've taken pricing as we head into the fourth quarter in our, at least our U.S. consumer business, and we are watching those elasticities pretty closely. We felt that we were at a point where we didn't have a choice because of the increased costs, and our customers have understood that. But we're going to continue to drive the investment in brand marketing, the display activity and our promotion plans through the fourth quarter. So we think we're positioned to help deal with that, but we are in a little bit of new territory.

Eric R. Katzman - Deutsche Bank AG, Research Division

Analyst · Deutsche Bank

Okay. And then just on the industrial side. I guess I'm very surprised at the comments around the protocols because ever since vanilla hit, my impression at least was that these protocols covered pretty much everything. And it seems to me that you can always hedge the major ingredients like soybean oil or wheat or what have you, and it was the items that are more obscure were the ones where you were in protocols and agreements with whatever it is to whichever customer it is to not get this kind of hit or exposure. So I don't really understand what's happened and why, again, why the contracts aren't kind of broadly covering -- or the protocols aren't broadly covering the stuff that's hard to hedge to begin with?

Alan D. Wilson

Analyst · Deutsche Bank

Well, we’ve -- the biggest thing is those major commodities we've had less control of and the minor commodities have not typically been volatile. They tend to offset each other, they tended to be more consistent and reliable, but what we're seeing is a continued upward pressure now that's forcing us to really change how we do that. And so it's been a challenge to get those kinds of things passed through, that it's just taken some time. So we're working through them, but our protocols really do address those major commodities where we can buy collaboratively with our customers.

Gordon M. Stetz

Analyst · Deutsche Bank

And the only thing I'll add is it's not all due to that. Again, we talked about a mix component as well. So I don't want to get that lost in the dialogue, either.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is from Erin Lash of Morningstar.

Erin Swanson Lash - Morningstar Inc., Research Division

Analyst · Morningstar

I was wanting to talk about acquisitions. Obviously, you've been quite acquisitive this year and you discussed the fact that you still have an appetite for acquisitions, and I was curious where you felt some of those opportunities might lie, depending on region, category, that sort of thing?

Alan D. Wilson

Analyst · Morningstar

Sure. The acquisitions that we've made this year are acquisitions that we've worked on for a long time. And we've been very interested and continue to expand in emerging markets, Eastern Europe, India, China and Latin America. We will continue to pursue growth areas in those markets. In our more developed markets like Western Europe and North America, we like to do tuck-in kind of acquisitions where flavor really matters, and that's why we're doing -- we did Kitchen Basics in the past quarter because we believe we can bring innovation and continue to help people in how they cook in a segment that consumers continue to grow in. So we believe that our acquisition strategy does 2 things: it expands the categories we're in, but it expands geographically where we are. And as you've seen through our history, acquisitions are about 1/3 of our growth rate over the last 10 or 12 years.

Erin Swanson Lash - Morningstar Inc., Research Division

Analyst · Morningstar

That's very helpful. I just had one quick follow-up. You mentioned I think last quarter that retailers were emphasizing or promoting private label products versus branded, and I was wondering what you're seeing now and how you are thinking about that going into the fourth quarter with your planned price increases?

Alan D. Wilson

Analyst · Morningstar

Well, we're still seeing retailers promote private label, but as we always do in the fourth quarter, we expect to see consumers buy the brands because they trust the products for their holiday meals, and our display activity ramps up so aggressively in the fourth quarter that we always see our shares go up in the fourth quarter. So we expect to see that continue.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is from the line of Robert Dickerson with Consumer Edge.

Robert Dickerson - Consumer Edge Research, LLC

Analyst · Robert Dickerson with Consumer Edge

Just 2 very short ones. I know we're short on time. Just one was your FX guidance of the 2% for the year. Is there any risk do you think to that as we go into Q4, just considering the appreciation we've seen in the dollar over the past month?

Gordon M. Stetz

Analyst · Robert Dickerson with Consumer Edge

There's always risk in a volatile world with currency, but we got 3/4 of the year behind us. I know, obviously, this is the biggest quarter we're entering into, but FX, as you saw in the results, was 4.6% favorability. So it's our best guess at the moment given the rate environment.

Robert Dickerson - Consumer Edge Research, LLC

Analyst · Robert Dickerson with Consumer Edge

Okay, fine. And I think you stated early on in your prepared remarks that you were tracking along to still meet your profit target or operating profit target. And correct me if I'm wrong, but I thought, I haven't checked this recently, but I thought your top line guidance originally for the year was 5%, 7% growth and then EPS was 5%, 7% growth. I thought you were guiding to like the 0 to negative 2% operating profit growth for the year. Is that what you were referring to? And either way, is that a reasonable profit target for the year, or just any comments on that?

Gordon M. Stetz

Analyst · Robert Dickerson with Consumer Edge

Our guidance have always been mostly around the top line and the earnings per share, which has been consistent all year long. The only change to the guidance that we've made that we’ve tried to make clear here is, obviously, the impact of all these acquisitions. Other than the acquisition impact, we’ve really been consistent since the beginning of the year on EPS and top line guidance, as well as the gross profit margin, where we've been indicating all along that we expect to see it down versus prior year.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is from Andrew Lazar, Barclays Capital.

Andrew Lazar - Barclays Capital, Research Division

Analyst

Just one quick follow-up on inflation. Of the, I guess, double-digit inflation that you're looking for in input cost this year, can you give us a little bit of a sense of kind of how that tracked? So maybe directionally what it was in the first half, maybe what you saw in terms of year-over-year inflation in the third quarter, so we can get a sense of how that flows into the fourth? Does it ramp up dramatically into the fourth from here? Just trying to get a better read on that.

Gordon M. Stetz

Analyst · Thilo Wrede of Jefferies & Company

Obviously, as we started the year, as we indicated, we had gross profit margin improvement in the first quarter. People recall, and we were making sure people are aware that we did not expect that to continue as we saw the increases start to occur as we progressed through the year. We obviously knew the third and fourth quarters, we’d experience it the most, so I would suggest that what you just saw in the third quarter is probably what we could potentially expect going into the fourth quarter. You do have a shift of business mix in the fourth quarter as the consumer part of our business ends up being a much bigger part of the portfolio, but I'd say the types of increases that we expected are starting to occur – they occurred in Q3 and will occur in Q4.

Andrew Lazar - Barclays Capital, Research Division

Analyst

Okay. And my last, is it fair to say that the lag that you saw and expect a little bit more in terms of pricing versus cost is more due to really trying to -- seeing where costs kind of went more recently and then thinking obviously out into 2012 versus having tried to get pricing through a little earlier but running into roadblocks or delays from a, whatever, retailer or consumer standpoint?

Alan D. Wilson

Analyst · Thilo Wrede of Jefferies & Company

Yes, we really haven't seen an impact in any delays. It's more accelerating costs that are driving the need for pricing, and so it's less of -- certainly, we have to negotiate pricing, but we haven't seen any delays in getting it implemented. It's more the costs have gone quicker. And I will say that part of our culture is that pricing is one of the last levers we want to pull as a company. And so our teams try to do everything they can to manage costs and work with customers before we pull that pricing lever. But we're just in an environment where we have to pull it faster.

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, we are almost out of time for questions. We have time for one final question from the line of Chuck Cerankosky with Northcoast Research.

Charles Edward Cerankosky - Northcoast Research

Analyst · Chuck Cerankosky with Northcoast Research

Wanted to ask about the acquisition environment. With the pressure on raw material cost increases, working capital pressures, capital availability in general, what are you seeing that doing to the people you've been talking to?

Alan D. Wilson

Analyst · Chuck Cerankosky with Northcoast Research

Well, certainly, the environment is impacting everyone, and different companies are in a different position with being able to take pricing, again depending on the market that they’re in and the strength of their business. We don't think that's going to either cause people to be more aggressive at selling their businesses or less willing to sell their business. I think it's less of an impact, but it certainly will impact how we value businesses as we go forward. Go ahead, Chuck. I'm sorry.

Charles Edward Cerankosky - Northcoast Research

Analyst · Chuck Cerankosky with Northcoast Research

I was just going to say about their working capital investments, just carrying inventories going up for them, is that hastening their decision to sell at all?

Alan D. Wilson

Analyst · Chuck Cerankosky with Northcoast Research

I don't know that it's hastening their decision, but we certainly see it impact the balance sheet. I’m going to…

Charles Edward Cerankosky - Northcoast Research

Analyst · Chuck Cerankosky with Northcoast Research

All right. Then what do you expect retailers to be doing over the next couple quarters as you try to push through additional pricing?

Alan D. Wilson

Analyst · Chuck Cerankosky with Northcoast Research

Well, I think retailers are responding the way that they typically have, and we saw that as we headed into the fourth quarter where retailers did -- there was some amount of buy-in, in advance of the price increase. But I expect that retailers are doing the same things in our category that they are in others, and those are finding -- those prices are finding their way to the shelves. I want to thank everybody for participating. I know it's been a long call, but I did want to quickly wrap up. And several factors impacted our results this period, things like discrete tax items and the timing of our acquisition costs. And while those make the job of analyzing results and projecting our outlook a little tougher, we hope that we provided you what you need. We do want to leave you with a couple of key takeaways. First, we demonstrated our ability to implement pricing actions while achieving higher volume and product mix in our year-to-date results. Secondly, we're adapting our business to the economic environment and today's consumer, our product innovation and additional brand marketing support and are vigorously pursuing distribution opportunities. And third, we're investing for growth with accretive acquisitions and joint ventures while we exercise financial discipline and maintaining a strong balance sheet. I appreciate your attention, and I'll turn it over to Joyce to wrap up.

Joyce L. Brooks

Analyst · Chuck Cerankosky with Northcoast Research

Thanks, Alan. I’ll leave my thanks to those listening on today's call. Through October 5, you may access a telephone replay of the call by dialing (877) 660-6853. The account number for this replay is 309, and the ID number is 377603. You can also listen to a replay on our website later today. If anyone has additional questions regarding today's information, I'd welcome a call at my number (410) 771-7244. This concludes our call.