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McCormick & Company, Incorporated (MKC)

Q3 2013 Earnings Call· Thu, Sep 26, 2013

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Transcript

Joyce L. Brooks

Operator

Good morning. This is Joyce Brooks, McCormick's Vice President of Investor Relations. Thank you for joining today's call to review the company's third quarter financial results and latest 2013 outlook. We've posted a set of slides to accompany the call at our website, ir.mccormick.com. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, the conference is being recorded. With me on the call are Alan Wilson, Chairman, President and CEO; and Gordon Stetz, Executive Vice President and CFO. Please note that today's presentation contains projections and other forward-looking statements. Actual results could differ materially from those projected. The company undertakes no obligation to update or revise publicly any forward-looking statements whether as a result of new information, future events or other factors. As seen on Slide 2, our forward-looking statement also provides information on risk factors that could affect our financial results. It's now my pleasure to turn it over to Alan.

Alan D. Wilson

Analyst

Thanks, Joyce. Good morning, everyone, and thanks for joining us. I'm pleased with the progress we're making in 2013 to advance McCormick's growth initiatives in operations around the world. We've had strong product innovation activity. Our recently acquired business, WAPC, is off to a great start. Plans are in place for a significant increase in our fourth quarter brand marketing, and we're again raising our projected cost savings from our CCI program. We continue to operate in a difficult environment and weak third quarter results in certain parts of our business have put pressure on our projected 2013 financial results. While we have moderated our sales and profit outlook for 2013, we believe that the growing consumer demand for flavor, along with our brand leadership, CCI program and solid fundamentals will lead to a stronger performance in 2014. For this morning's call, I want to begin with our third quarter results and then move on to a review of current market conditions and our outlook for fiscal 2013. I'll conclude with an update on progress with our growth initiatives. Turning to third quarter results on Slide 4. We grew sales 4%. This was driven largely by increased sales in our consumer business led by the acquisition of WAPC and a shift in sales from the fourth quarter. Industrial sales decreased just slightly, and we were glad to see some improvement in China this quarter. Gross profit margin was even with the year ago period, following the decline in each of the past 4 quarters. This improvement was primarily due to a favorable mix of business and our CCI cost savings. Operating income rose 3%, which is below our expectations for the quarter as the profit impact of the sales shortfall in the industrial business was greater than we expected. Despite…

Gordon M. Stetz

Analyst

Thanks, Alan, and good morning, everyone. As Alan described, the third quarter results of our business segments varied by region, and in certain areas, were below our expectations. While we expect better growth rates in the fourth quarter, we have adjusted our full year outlook to reflect the third quarter performance. I'm going to begin with a closer look at sales and operating income results for each segment, starting with the consumer business. We grew consumer business sales 7% in local currency. As Alan indicated, this third quarter increase included the impact of WAPC and the shift in sales from the fourth quarter. Each of these contributed about 5% to sales growth in the third quarter for the consumer segment. Excluding the impact of currency, WAPC and the sales shift, consumer business sales declined 2% in the third quarter. On the same basis, we have grown consumer business sales 3% year-to-date. On Slide 18, in the Americas region, sales rose 4% with an underlying decline of 4%, following the strong first half and soft consumption early in the third quarter. While the shift in sales creates a fourth quarter headwind for this part of our business, we expect our brand marketing, new product activity and in-store fall cooking and holiday season execution to drive growth. And as a reminder, in the fourth quarter of 2012, the combined impact of Hurricane Sandy and retail purchase patterns lowered sales growth in this region by about 3%. In Europe, the Middle East and Africa, EMEA, sales in local currency were even with the year ago period. Increases in Poland and parts of Western Europe were driven by innovation and our brand marketing activity. This was offset by a decline in the U.K. related to weak retailer sales across a number of categories. Consumer…

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instruction] Our first question comes from David Driscoll with Citigroup.

David Driscoll - Citigroup Inc, Research Division

Analyst

I have 2 questions. One on the cost outlook, the inflation outlook, and one on that comment about the 2014 tax and retirement costs. On the cost outlook, the -- I believe what you wrote there was in 2014, you're looking for low single-digit material cost increases. I guess I just want to get your impressions that if we have deflation in the grain markets potentially affecting much of the grocery store, how do you see your business in 2014 in comparison to what might be many other categories, in fact, seeing price declines while you guys are actually having to take pricing? So that's the first one.

Alan D. Wilson

Analyst

Yes, we -- our commodities certainly are different. Most of our products are grown outside the U.S. in areas that are within a few degrees in the equator. And there's a lot of different dynamics that impact that. Weather, like monsoons in India, can impact some of the -- some of our costs. We're certainly not expecting cost declines across our core spice and seasonings ingredients. We may see some and -- that impact more of our industrial business in things like grains, but we're going to be a little counter to what you may be seeing in some of the other commodities. I'll let Gordon take the other part of the question.

David Driscoll - Citigroup Inc, Research Division

Analyst

Second question was just on 2014 tax and retirement costs. It seems like from the comments, both from the lump sum payment, like I'm struggling to understand why that's not favorable to the retirement cost picture going forward in 2014. And the tax rate, it doesn't seem like it should be moving up much. So when you make this comment that it's less of a headwind, that still suggests that it is a headwind. It's just less of a headwind. But kind of why is it? It doesn't seem like it perhaps should be.

Gordon M. Stetz

Analyst

Yes, David, just to focus first on the retirement going forward, our -- what we're saying when we say less of a headwind is really we're speaking to the fact that this year's increase in the operating income expense impact of that was a function of the interest rate environment, primarily where rates declined at end of last year when we established our valuation. Our expectation, given the rate environment, is certainly that rates -- and as well as everyone knows this on the call, rates shouldn't decline any further. So at a minimum, we would expect that expense not to go up like it did this year. And then if it's a favorability, it will purely a function of what the rate environment is at November 30 when we establish the valuation date. And to your point on tax, tax rate, again, the favorable rate that we experienced in 2012 was primarily a function of a transaction we did, which was cash repatriation, which we did not duplicate this year and do not anticipate a similar transaction at this stage as we look into 2014. So again, we're not looking for any unfavorable comparison related to the tax rate as we head into 2014 as we had experienced in 2013.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Ken Goldman with JPMorgan. Kenneth Goldman - JP Morgan Chase & Co, Research Division: Alan, if I heard you correctly, and I may not have, I thought you said -- you mentioned some success in reducing opening price points at certain retailers and that this is encouraging consumers to trade up to private label or branded alternatives. Again, I may not have heard that right, but it's not often that a company talks about trading consumers up to private label. So maybe you can add some color there.

Alan D. Wilson

Analyst

Yes, sure. What -- opening price point in the spice business, and has been there for a long time for these products. And we have a number of these brands like Fifth Seasons and Spice Classics and a couple of other control brands that would show up actually in our branded sales that sell between $0.50 and $1. And a number -- some retailers, some major retailers have reduced their reliance on those. And what's happening is, that's improving the category sales and profits for the retailer. A lot of those are shifting into private label, but that's a good thing for both us and them. Kenneth Goldman - JP Morgan Chase & Co, Research Division: Okay. And then when you look at the change in your consumer performance in the Americas from the beginning of the quarter to the end, and I know you've touched on this a little bit, but can you just again add some color as to what you maybe think some of the biggest drivers were of that improvement...

Alan D. Wilson

Analyst

I never like to use weather as an excuse, but the early part of June, it was a fairly atypical weather for the early part of the summer. I think that did impact it, we saw -- and the reason I can say that with some confidence is because of the impact on grilling items and -- which is a big part of our summer sales in the U.S. So I think there was something going on there, and we've seen it from the releases by retailers and other food manufacturers that the beginning of summer was weaker than I think they expected. We're encouraged by what we've seen later in the summer and what we're seeing early in the fall.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Leigh Ferst with Wellington Shields. Leigh Ferst - Wellington Shields & Co., LLC, Research Division: I was wondering if you could tell us what kind of reaction you've gotten to 3% price increase. And what kind of marketing you're doing to -- marketing promotion you're doing in relation to that?

Alan D. Wilson

Analyst

Yes, price increases are never easy. And as David mentioned in the first part of the call, we're a little counter to what some other companies are seeing because our products are going up and some are seeing some commodity health. By and large, and we have a long history of this, we have a good story. We are explaining the reason for the price increase and we're moving it through. From a consumer standpoint, we are certainly continuing our strong advertising program. We are promoting to make sure that we get to the right price point at the right time, so that we maintain consumption as we move it. 3% is pretty modest as this is, I think, one of the lower price increases we've had in the last 5 or 6 years. Leigh Ferst - Wellington Shields & Co., LLC, Research Division: And shifting to a long-term perspective, I know you're not giving guidance on '14, and you're still using the Euromonitor 5-year outlook, but is there any change in how you look at your business long-term based on what's going on around the world?

Alan D. Wilson

Analyst

Well, certainly, we believe long term that we're well positioned. There is -- there is some lumpiness in different markets that we are adapting to, and we continue to do that, but we're -- we believe that long term, we're in a great business, we are seeing category growth rates that are strong. Over time we're seeing the world's consumers continue to develop a level of affluence, which means they improve their food supply. And we think that's positive. We're seeing more move in most markets to modern trade. We think that's all positive. Certainly, we believe we're well-positioned. And we'll adapt our business to make sure that we can manage through whatever situation that we have. Leigh Ferst - Wellington Shields & Co., LLC, Research Division: Great. And regarding Wuhan, you said you're ahead of plan. Are you -- do you think that's because you had to wait so long to implement this and you had a long-term to -- a long time to evaluate what was -- and plan what you wanted to do there?

Alan D. Wilson

Analyst

Yes, we had a very strong integration plan and it's been well executed. And so I think that's a -- that is certainly a piece of it. I want to give the team on the ground a lot of credit for what they've done to bring it in. But we, given the length of time between the announcement and the actual close, we did have time to put together good plans.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Chris Growe with Stifel. Christopher R. Growe - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc., Research Division: I just had 2 questions for you. I wanted to start first with the industrial division and just to get a better sense of kind of what's going on in that division. We have seen an improvement in Asia, still some weakness in the U.S. I guess what I'm trying to get at is, do you have any more visibility into the pipeline of products your restaurant customers are implementing, do you foresee an improvement, say, into Q4 and into early 2014?

Alan D. Wilson

Analyst

In terms of specific restaurant customers, about half of our business is foodservice distributors and the other half are quick service. We're seeing actually more optimism in the branded food service business than we are in the QSR. From our standpoint, but remember, this isn't -- you shouldn't read that we're making a comment on the entire consumption for QSR, just the products that we supply. We tend to supply more core menu type items. And as they are introducing breakfast, for instance, that's not necessarily an area that we play in. We're encouraged that we're seeing some new product activity, but we're not seeing enough to offset some weakness in the core items. Christopher R. Growe - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc., Research Division: And so do you have visibility to those improving say, later in the quarter and early into next year? Is there any kind of a little positive outlook as we look ahead?

Alan D. Wilson

Analyst

Yes, we think over the next few quarters, we're going to see some continued improvement, but we've expected to see that for -- as we've have headed in the second half of the year. We think fourth quarter will be better, certainly, than we've seen in the first 3 quarters. Christopher R. Growe - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc., Research Division: Okay. And just one -- if I could ask one on the consumer division. You had a weak start to the quarter, it sounds like, from a demand standpoint. So I'm just curious, was that related to I guess what you were talking about earlier about some of the weather weakness earlier in the quarter? And then just to understand, as you ship more product ahead to the degree at which that helps sales this quarter, it sounds like you got more product out there, more in the slate out there. Do you think that could help fourth quarter sales, then, as well for the consumer division?

Alan D. Wilson

Analyst

Yes, we think that will help fourth quarter consumption. The earlier we get it up, the more likely we are to move it through. And last year, we saw consumption -- even with everything that happened, we saw consumption stay pretty steady. But our factory sales were a little more lumpy because of certain internal events. But I think we're feeling pretty good at this point as to where we are in fourth quarter. We've got a good advertising program. We've got strong displays out on the floor. So we're encouraged and optimistic about fourth quarter.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Alexia Howard with Sanford Bernstein. Alexia Howard - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC., Research Division: Can I ask about the U.K. You mentioned weak retailer sales over there. So I'd like to get a bit of a sense of whether that's likely to persist and what's causing that over there?

Alan D. Wilson

Analyst

The U.K. has been a little bit weaker. The question on what's driving that weakness is probably a little tougher. The U.K. is, as you know, a difficult market. The retailers are largely consolidated. We saw just relatively flat sales in the U.K. in the quarter. We again, we have a good line of product activity. We have advertising in place and so we're trying to make sure that we can keep our products relevant to the consumer. Alexia Howard - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC., Research Division: Okay. And as a quick follow-up, the Mexico JV relocation, when will that be completed? And when can we expect a rebound in performance over there? And I'll pass it on.

Alan D. Wilson

Analyst

Yes, the performance of our business -- the underlying performance of our business in Mexico has been pretty good. We'll finish the charges in the fourth quarter as we relocate from an older plant to a new plant, where we expect higher productivity. So we should see the impact of that as we go in through next year.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Thilo Wrede with Jefferies.

Thilo Wrede - Jefferies LLC, Research Division

Analyst · Jefferies.

Gordon, in the last few quarters you've made a good effort of reducing inventories. You seem to have had inventory growth this quarter. What's your view on inventory right now and your ability to reduce that going forward?

Gordon M. Stetz

Analyst · Jefferies.

Well, I think the 2 factors impacting it this quarter, the vast majority of that increase year-over-year relates to the Wuhan acquisition, probably -- not probably, 70% of that increase year-over-year is primarily the fact that we now have inventory associated with that acquisition. We did have also some increases as we prepare for the fourth quarter this year, making sure that we're ready for great execution around our products and having that inventory sufficient to drive through with the programs that we have in place. I'd say, on a go-forward basis, it is something that we continue to have a lot of programs around and we have lots of energy around our sales and operation planning process. You've heard us talk greatly about systems improvements, which we have done and we're leveraging globally. So if we look at our 3-year forward plans, we continue to believe that that's an area we can get efficiencies and continue to get a benefit in our cash flow.

Thilo Wrede - Jefferies LLC, Research Division

Analyst · Jefferies.

Okay. And then maybe I missed this in your prepared remarks, but you're obviously now doing price increases in the U.S. consumer business. Yet, in the third quarter, price was more or less flat if not down in the U.S. consumer business. How do I need to look at that? Why was the pricing going in the opposite direction of what I would have expected?

Alan D. Wilson

Analyst · Jefferies.

We haven't taken pricing in a couple of years, it's been 2 years. And so what we introduced was a 3% price, which will be effective in the fourth quarter. So you would not have seen pricing impact in the third quarter at all.

Thilo Wrede - Jefferies LLC, Research Division

Analyst · Jefferies.

But was there an increase in promotions in the U.S.? For example, I mean last quarter, price grew at a much healthier rate.

Alan D. Wilson

Analyst · Jefferies.

There may have been some promotional activity. Our -- Gordon, can you help me with that?

Gordon M. Stetz

Analyst · Jefferies.

Yes, I mean really, we haven't seen a great deal of price realization in the U.S. I mean, the only price that we've taken was a minor one that was in the third quarter of last year related to pepper, so you probably saw a slight benefit. But we've anniversary-ed that now as we've come into this third quarter. So as we go into Q4, as Alan said, the latest price increase really is not executed until partway through the fourth quarter.

Thilo Wrede - Jefferies LLC, Research Division

Analyst · Jefferies.

Okay. I appreciate that. And then last question I have for you was the rice business in India, you said it was a reaction to an increase in rice cost. If the Indian consumer, other than the price increase, how is the Indian consumer doing right now? Is that a healthy market for you other than that?

Alan D. Wilson

Analyst · Jefferies.

I wouldn't say it's a healthy market. There's a lot of volatility in India and you've seen that with currency changes. So we've got some internal things specific to our business that we're working through and that's around making sure that we've got a competitive position. But I wouldn't say that the Indian consumer at this point is a robust consumer.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Chuck Cerankosky with Northcoast Research.

Charles Edward Cerankosky - Northcoast Research

Analyst · Northcoast Research.

If you sort of look at the Americas and keeping in my how people talked about this bifurcated recovery, can you comment on the demand trends both in consumer and industrial segments? What you're seeing by channel and type of restaurant and retailer?

Alan D. Wilson

Analyst · Northcoast Research.

Yes, we're seeing -- and it is, I think, bifurcated. I think there are certain segments that are doing well. We're seeing in most of our markets more robust, an interest in high-end gourmet-type products. We did a really good job with a higher-end gourmet product in France. We're seeing that and some results in the U.S. as well. And we're seeing from retailers like we talked about, eliminating some of the opening price points, they're still a value consumer, but we're able to serve them a little bit better with better quality products. I do think it is tough. I think consumers are not feeling very robust. And I think it's a tough market.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Ann Gurkin with Davenport. Ann H. Gurkin - Davenport & Company, LLC, Research Division: I have 2 questions. One, if you think about top line growth for the next 12 to 18 months, what do you see as the key levers to driving that growth? Is it pricing? Innovation? Mix? Can you help me as to how to think about what drives top line?

Alan D. Wilson

Analyst

Yes, I'll start it and Gordon, if you want to add anything, please do. Certainly, we'll see some impact of pricing that we'll experience most of the next year. We have a pretty good pipeline of new products that we think will help drive growth. We're starting to shift our industrial business into more higher-value flavor-type products as we have some new technology coming online. So we kind of see some of that coming. Gordon, do you want to add anything to that?

Gordon M. Stetz

Analyst

Yes, I'd emphasize back to our long-term algorithm and the elements of that, where we talk about the 4% to 6%. Now don't take this yet as guidance for 2014 but certainly, if you break that down, 1/3 of that is in the base business around strong execution and the strong category trends, 1/3 of that through the innovation and 1/3 of that through acquisitions which have occurred, on average, over time. So if you look into next year, we have certain elements of all of that with a little bit of price. So that's the way I would be thinking about it. Ann H. Gurkin - Davenport & Company, LLC, Research Division: Okay. Great. And then second, in the fourth quarter, for some reason, I think you all are going to launch a new flavor platform, a product platform. Is that still on track? Can you give me any update on that?

Alan D. Wilson

Analyst

It will be commercialized and we're in the process of commercializing it. It really won't impact fourth quarter very much. It will be probably be more through next year as we start to get it completely online. Ann H. Gurkin - Davenport & Company, LLC, Research Division: But we should still learn about it in Q4. As expected?

Alan D. Wilson

Analyst

Yes.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Robert Moskow with Credit Suisse.

Rachel Nabatian

Analyst · Credit Suisse.

This is actually Rachel Nabatian in for Rob Moskow. So by our math, given that $30 million was pulled forward in 3Q, it seems like you need a really big 4Q for consumer, especially since industrial is expected to be weaker than our prior expectations. Now to be fair, you did say that it's an easier comp and you have programs in place to drive sales. But even so, it still seems like you need a rather large sales increase. So I guess we just wanted to know, what gives you the confidence that you're going to be able to hit your sales target?

Gordon M. Stetz

Analyst · Credit Suisse.

Well, just -- you pointed out all the accurate elements. We are looking at a more favorable comp in Q4 as it relates to both the U.S. consumer business and the global industrial business. When you net the 2 elements of the pull-ahead and the issues that we experienced last year in the Americas on the consumer side, we're probably up against a net headwind of about 2% to 3%. So your question obviously is what gives us the confidence. Well, we're starting in a good place with the merchandising displays up there and we're starting in a good place with the consumption trends that we're seeing. And behind all that, we have very, very strong programs targeted in every month in advertising around, as you heard us talk about the mega events and for holiday cooking. So ultimately, it's going to be the execution and the pull-through that we're gearing up. You heard us talk about $10 million of incremental spend to drive those sales. So we're looking for sales recovery in that Q4. Combining that with what we would see as an improving gross profit trend relative to what we've seen prior year in the first 3 quarters, that's all the elements of our thinking in our guidance.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Rob Dickerson with Consumer Edge.

Robert Dickerson - Consumer Edge Research, LLC

Analyst · Consumer Edge.

I guess, just to try to summarize the strategy around the pricing increase a little bit. It's basically what you're saying is that input costs, you're probably expecting it to be still low single-digits into fiscal '14. And because of that, you're taking the 3% price and that's it? Because I guess what's still a bit counterintuitive is if we look at the global forecast despite growth either in the U.S. or on a global basis, when you look at your trends, I mean, you have been losing share and that share has been lost by volume. So I'm just trying to get an idea of like how to match the price increase with continued volume share loss because it would seem like, as you said, as we go into next year, most of the growth I would think would be coming from price at least in the Americas, which could mean that you could continue to lose volume. So if you could just comment on that please?

Alan D. Wilson

Analyst · Consumer Edge.

Yes, we believe we've got the programs that will help us to continue to drive and increase volume. And our growth is going to be based a little bit on price, pricing is a big part of our algorithm. We only use price to offset commodity costs and we have seen that commodity cost increases. Part of what you've seen in the growth in private label has been price. Our private label customers and our retail customers, whether we supply the private label or not, have been taking price. So I think you're seeing some of that in the dollar growth from private label as well. So we're in an environment and we've been very responsible on price where we believe that this is appropriate. We have not taken pricing in a couple of years. It was time to do that because our costs have continued to accelerate. But we take our responsibility in terms of how we price, we take a lot of responsibility and accountability for that.

Robert Dickerson - Consumer Edge Research, LLC

Analyst · Consumer Edge.

Okay. And then just a quick follow-up. On the marketing side, it looks like kind of as the year has progressed, the plan is to increase marketing and it's supposed to be up $13 million for the year. I think original guidance, it was supposed to be up $15 million. So you're technically spending less than you originally expected even though $10 million of it, almost all of it is coming in Q4. So can you just comment on why -- I mean, I know, it's only $2 million, which is -- off of $15 million, but could you just comment why it would come in at a little bit lower? And why it is so Q4-loaded even with the volume pressure that we saw in Q3?

Alan D. Wilson

Analyst · Consumer Edge.

We do, in our U.S. business, about 40% of our sales in the fourth quarter. So it would be back-loaded. The highest ROI that we get in our marketing programs are geared towards the Thanksgiving and holiday -- and Christmas periods. So it just makes sense that that's where the bulk of that would be, and it supports the programs and the display activities that we have out there. We are leaning into our business. We recognize that we have had some challenges. We've typically had pretty good volume growth. We want to continue that and that's why we are leaning in with our marketing programs.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Eric Katzman with Deutsche Bank.

Eric R. Katzman - Deutsche Bank AG, Research Division

Analyst · Deutsche Bank.

I guess first question. Alan, you know it's -- I've been hearing about Wal-Mart reducing inventories across many categories. And so I guess in relationship to the fourth quarter and your easier comps but hopes for some improvement, kind of how does -- how do lower inventories at retail -- by the retailers figure into your calculations of improvement?

Alan D. Wilson

Analyst · Deutsche Bank.

Yes, we -- I'll say, the big impact on the sell-in in the third quarter were specific large customers who took their orders at end of August instead of at the beginning of September. So that would say that they are believing, at least in this category, that there's some reason to get those displays up early, and we've seen them and they're up. So that we think is positive. Ultimately, what happens is the consumer is going to have to pull it through, which is why we have the marketing programs that we do. So we're banking on our sales -- our factory sales and our consumption relatively matching up. We haven't factored in that we think there's going to be a large de-loading by the retailers at the end of the year. Typically, we don't see that in our category in the fourth quarter.

Eric R. Katzman - Deutsche Bank AG, Research Division

Analyst · Deutsche Bank.

Okay. And just to kind of follow on to that. It seems like over the last few years really, and I've heard this from some investors, questions about how shipments versus consumption have moved around. I think last year, you may have had some movements from the fourth into the first quarter and now you've had third versus fourth. And so as the category manager and clear share leader, why don't -- why doesn't the company have seemingly like better or maybe more consistent kind of shipments as opposed to what seems kind of almost like a high low from quarter-to-quarter and year-to-year?

Alan D. Wilson

Analyst · Deutsche Bank.

I think what happens, and what's happened in more recent periods, is customers have been buying a lot closer to consumption. And in their stores, they tell us, their customers, the consumer is buying on a different pattern. They're buying closer to when they get paid. And so they're trying to manage their levels of inventory closer to when they're going to have needs. When they miss it and they have too much inventory, they immediately react to that. When they have not enough inventory, which is what happened in fourth quarter last year, they also react to that. So I think there's -- I think it's a little bit less certainty around how the consumers purchase patterns are and a focus by everybody on making sure that they're maximizing cash flow.

Eric R. Katzman - Deutsche Bank AG, Research Division

Analyst · Deutsche Bank.

Okay. Last question. Your stock has underperformed the group pretty significantly this year, maybe anticipating some of what we're talking about today. You're saying that fiscal '14 should be a pretty strong year. Yet it sounds like, and it's not a huge business, but it sounds like Kohinoor is missing your targets and Wuhan is not going to add to earnings next year, if my memory is correct. So I guess, what else can you -- you talked about the top line a little bit for '14, but what should -- and you talked about some of the non-operating things. What should help? Is like CCI savings maybe going to be accelerated? Or is there -- you're just counting on the mix shift getting better to help the business? Because it sounds like input cost will continue to be a bit of a headwind.

Alan D. Wilson

Analyst · Deutsche Bank.

Yes, without getting into giving guidance for next year, we're still putting our budgets together. But the key things that we think will help to impact, one is recovery in our U.S. industrial business and in China as well. Wuhan will add about $0.03 the next year. We do expect to be in a better position in India next year, so that is certainly a piece of it. We've talked about the impact on pension cost, which we're not forecasting at this point, but we believe shouldn't be the headwind that they've been this year. And then underlying -- and none of that stuff actually matters except the core performance of our business. And we believe that we will continue to show the kind of resilience that we have with good advertising programs, good new product introductions and execution on our -- in our core business.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Your next question comes from Akshay Jagdale with KeyBanc Capital Markets.

Akshay S. Jagdale - KeyBanc Capital Markets Inc., Research Division

Analyst · KeyBanc Capital Markets.

So I wanted to -- I'm a little still confused on how this quarter turned out relative to expectations? Obviously, lower guidance. The numbers came in on the sales and gross profit, and gross margins are much below what we had, but we could have been way off. So how did the quarterly sales numbers come in relative to your expectation? And then I have a few follow-ups on that.

Gordon M. Stetz

Analyst · KeyBanc Capital Markets.

Well, as we try to highlight in the call, Akshay, that from the U.S. consumer side, the underlying core was not as strong as what we would have liked based on the slow start to the third quarter. However, relative to our expectation on the holiday program, that came in a bit stronger. So net-net, 9% operating income growth on the consumer side is pretty strong and I'd say, primarily close to our expectation, although we would have liked to have seen stronger performance in areas that have been doing quite well year-to-date. Europe is -- was flattish in consumer. And although the team is doing a great job there, that had been up until that point, performing at a slightly better rate than that. And certainly on the industrial side, we would have -- we expected a weaker performance, but we would have liked to have seen even stronger performance out of the industrial side relative to our expectations. So basically, that weakness in those areas were offset by the tax rate.

Akshay S. Jagdale - KeyBanc Capital Markets Inc., Research Division

Analyst · KeyBanc Capital Markets.

That's helpful. And then just focusing on the base consumer performance on sales, what was it that came -- I mean, is it the consumer switching to private label? Was that something that was unexpected? Or was there something else to it? I mean, I'm just trying to gauge what might happen in the fourth quarter? So I'm trying to understand whether it was the consumer behavior that was different than what you expected? Was it your execution in the stores? Just if you could give some color on that, that would be helpful.

Alan D. Wilson

Analyst · KeyBanc Capital Markets.

No, it was weak consumption at the beginning of the quarter, as we talked about a fairly weak offtake for Memorial Day. And I think you've heard that, and consistent with a number of other companies. And we've seen some improvement as we have gone into the later part of the quarter.

Akshay S. Jagdale - KeyBanc Capital Markets Inc., Research Division

Analyst · KeyBanc Capital Markets.

And so what -- what do you think is underlying, sort of, why is that happening? Why is the consumer...

Alan D. Wilson

Analyst · KeyBanc Capital Markets.

Why is the consumer getting better?

Akshay S. Jagdale - KeyBanc Capital Markets Inc., Research Division

Analyst · KeyBanc Capital Markets.

Well, no. First of all, what changed early on in the quarter in your opinion, from the consumer standpoint, that caused them to be more cautious? And then what's changed since then that it's getting better through the quarter?

Alan D. Wilson

Analyst · KeyBanc Capital Markets.

I think, one, was a weak Memorial Day, a rainy Memorial Day up and down the East Coast impacted the sales of grilling products and related categories. I think if you look at some of the related categories around that, you'll see that. And what we've seen with improvement, I think, is that the consumers are starting to come back and we've seen that. And I don't want to put too much stock into to the 4-week IRI or Nielsen data, but we've seen continued improvement off the weakness from early in the quarter.

Akshay S. Jagdale - KeyBanc Capital Markets Inc., Research Division

Analyst · KeyBanc Capital Markets.

Okay. Great. And just 1 last one on India. You mentioned next year you expect improvement there. Is that distribution-driven? Are you changing price points? Is it new products? Can you just help me understand that?

Alan D. Wilson

Analyst · KeyBanc Capital Markets.

Well, we expect to see some impact from the new product introductions that we introduced this year. We think that will be a positive, but we also expect that we should see -- and we know the rice harvest is right now, we expect to be in a better position in terms of our rice productions for next year.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Andrew Lazar with Barclays.

Andrew Lazar - Barclays Capital, Research Division

Analyst · Barclays.

Can you talk a little bit more about the piece of the industrial business with sales to other food manufacturers? It doesn't seem like that was so much the issue in the quarter as you discussed. It was more of the QSR side. But what we've heard obviously from, at least, more recently a lot of the food manufacturers out there, trends in their businesses haven't been particularly robust on the volume side So I'm just trying to get a sense of if you expect obviously industrial to get better as we go into '14, is there a risk that the piece that goes towards other food manufacturers maybe is at risk a little bit just given what we've heard from so many of the other food manufacturers? First question.

Alan D. Wilson

Analyst · Barclays.

Yes, we think that is at some level of risk. Our focus in the industrial sales to other food manufacturers tends to be heavily in the snack area. And that has seemed to continue to be fairly robust, whether it's crackers or chips or those sorts of things, that part of the business has been fairly robust and we still see a lot of new product activity. So we're feeling a little more encouraged with that. I think as we saw at your conference, Andrew, there are certain customers that are pretty focused on productivity and cost. And if they aren't introducing new products, that would -- that could impact our business.

Andrew Lazar - Barclays Capital, Research Division

Analyst · Barclays.

I think the last price increase that you mentioned was in 2011. And I think that was the first time you had taken pricing, maybe ever, heading into your key fourth quarter or the seasonal fourth quarter. And I remember at that time, that was -- you had to make sure that went smoothly and was a little bit of a risk. From my recollection, it went very smoothly. I don't think there were any issues around pricing into the big holiday quarter. So if you can just remind me if that was the case and what were some of the learnings there and did that help you obviously with the confidence going into this fourth quarter with the pricing?

Alan D. Wilson

Analyst · Barclays.

Yes, it had been a long time since we had taken an increase heading into the fourth quarter. And that one was pretty much commodity-driven. And it did give us the confidence that we can execute it and that we can maintain our promotional plans as we do that. So -- and our view was that this was a better time to do this given where our markets are and where our customers are, to be able to get it executed. And we're finding -- certainly, it's not easy, but we're finding that we're executing it.

Operator

Operator

That concludes our Q&A session. I will now turn the call back to Alan Wilson.

Alan D. Wilson

Analyst

I want to thank you for your questions and for participating in the call. Our passion for flavor, our broad portfolio and our expanding global presence have led to a decade of strong performance at McCormick, and we believe we are well-positioned for the future. Through our growth initiatives, CCI program and the efforts of our employees around the world, we expect to deliver solid sales and profit growth in 2013 and are committed to delivering on our long-term financial objectives.

Joyce L. Brooks

Operator

Thanks, Alan. I'd like to add my thanks to those who participated in today's call. We ran a bit long, so thanks for your interest and sticking with us. Through October 3, a replay of the call can be accessed by dialing (855) 859-2056 and the conference ID number is 34927804. You can also listen to the replay on our website later today. If anyone has questions regarding today's information, we can be reached at (410) 771-7244. This concludes this morning's conference.

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for joining today's conference. You may now disconnect.