Earnings Labs

McCormick & Company, Incorporated (MKC)

Q1 2018 Earnings Call· Tue, Mar 27, 2018

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Transcript

Kasey Jenkins

Operator

Good morning. This is Kasey Jenkins, Vice President of McCormick Investor Relations. Thank you for joining today's First Quarter Earnings Call. To accompany this call, we posted set of slides at ir.mccormick.com. At this time, all participants are in listen-only mode. Following our remarks, we will begin a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions]. We will begin with remarks from Lawrence Kurzius, Chairman, President and CEO; and Mike Smith, Executive Vice President and CFO. During our remarks, we will refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures. These include adjusted operating income, adjusted income tax rate and adjusted earnings per share that exclude the impact of transaction and integration expenses related to the Reckitt Benckiser Foods or RB Foods acquisition, special charges and income taxes excluding certain non-recurring impact associated with the recently enacted tax reform which we refer to as the U.S. Tax Act as well as information in constant currency. Reconciliations to the GAAP results are included in this morning's press release and slides. In our comments, certain percentages are rounded, please refer to our presentation which includes the complete information. As a reminder, today's presentation contains projections and other forward-looking statements. Actual results could differ materially from those projected. The Company undertakes no obligation to update or revise publicly any forward-looking statements whether because of new information, future events, or other factors. As seen on Slide 2, our forward-looking statements also provides information on Risk Factors that could affect our financial results. It is now my pleasure to turn the discussion over to Lawrence.

Lawrence Kurzius

Analyst

Thank you, Kasey. Good morning everyone. Thanks for joining us. Our first quarter results were our great start to the year, delivering strong sales, operating income and earnings per share growth as well as significant margin expansion. Our successful execution of our strategies and engagement of employees around the world have driven these results across both of our segments and we are confident, they will continue to drive strong results as we go through the year. McCormick’s business platform is growing an advantage as seen on Slide 4, across all regions and categories, McCormick is flavoring food and beverages. Among the first quarter highlights across our portfolio, we are pleased with Frank’s RedHot and French’s performance and the impact they have on our portfolio of condiments & sauces and branded foodservice. Further progress has been made on expanding our Flavor Solutions portfolio with additional growth in flavors while proving some low margin business. We are also continuing to win with restaurant customers with new products in all of our regions. In our consumer segment, we continue to grow our underlying business in every region. We are confident that the breadth and reach of our portfolio continues to position us to fully meet the demand for flavor around the world and grow our business. Now let me go into more detail of our first quarter performance on Slide 5, as well as provide some business comments before turning it over to Mike who will in more depth on the quarter end results and our update to 2018 financial guidance. As we said on our year-end earnings call in January and at CAGNY in February, we have confidence in our strategies and are well positioned to deliver strong results in 2018. You can see this beginning to come through in our first…

Operator

Operator

We are well positioned to capitalize on the opportunities for growth and cost savings now. Our enthusiasm across the organization for this acquisition and are confident that a combination of our powerful brands will deliver significant shareholder value only continues to strengthen. In the Consumer segment. We grew sales nearly 15% in constant currency with incremental sales from RB Foods contributing 13% and our base business and new product growth contributing 2% with growth in every region. In the Americas, growth was particularly strong driven by the large impact of RB Food's brands which contributed 20% growth. Our underlying Americas' business grew almost 2% on both higher volume and mix and pricing and we believe undershipped consumer consumption due to trade inventory reductions. In the U.S. spices and seasonings our IRI data indicates scanner sales through grocery channels for the category and McCormick branded were both over 4%. Outside of grocery, a large retailers decision to convert a control label to private label, along with related promotional and merchandizing actions which we discussed on our January earnings call reduced McCormick’s multi-outlet sales growth to 2%. While this decision further branded spices and seasonings share performance it drove growth in our private label sales. We again had strong branded growth in grocery and strong growth in unmeasured channels including club, e-commerce and Hispanic markets as well as another areas of the portfolio. The environment remains dynamic and we continue to work with our customers to optimize category performance. Overall, we continue to see good growth in our spice and seasoning brands in the U.S. market and know we have more room to grow. We remain confident in the initiatives we have underway to position us to continue our trajectory of long-term growth. In Europe, Middle East and Africa, the EMEA region…

Michael Smith

Analyst

Thanks, Lawrence, and good morning everyone. As Lawrence indicated, we delivered strong growth with our first quarter results. I will begin with a discussion of our results and then follow with comments on our current full-year 2018 financial outlook. As seen on Slide 15, we grew sales 19%, including a 4% favorable impact from currency, acquisitions, pricing and higher volume and product mix each contributed to the increase. Both our Consumer and Flavor Solutions segments delivered strong top-line growth with increases in all three regions within both segments. We have also started the year with significant increases in adjusted operating income and adjusted earnings per share as well as significant operating margin expansion. The consumer segment grew sales 15% in constant currency. Our acquisition of RB Foods contributed 13% of the sales growth. On Slide 16, consumer segment sales in the Americas rose nearly 22% in constant currency versus the first quarter of 2017, with 20% of the increase from the acquisition of RB Foods. The remaining increase was driven by pricing related to the incremental impact of 2017 pricing actions and higher volume and product mix. EMEA consumer sales increased 1% in constant currency. The sales growth was driven by growth in France within both our branded portfolio and private label as well as the acquisition of RB Foods. Partially offsetting these increases was an impact from the timing of trade promotional activities. We grew consumer sales in the Asia Pacific region 6% in constant currency. In China, sales increases were driven by successful Chinese New Year holiday promotions. Sales growth in India was led by increased sales from our new consumer spice mixes. For the Consumer segment in total, we grew adjusted operating income of 35% to $132 million. In constant currency, adjusted operating income rose 32% from…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. At this time, we will be conducting a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions]. Our first question comes from the line of Robert Moskow with Credit Suisse. Please proceed with your question.

Robert Moskow

Analyst

Hi thank you for the question. I was hoping to get a little bit of an update on revenue synergies. I think EMEA was up about 1% as a result of RB Foods. Lawrence, would you consider that revenue synergies and if so, can you help us quantify at is it $8 million or $9 million or so and then secondly, on the bonuses that are being given to hourly’s, was that part of your original guidance and can you give us a sense of how it affects operating income for the year? Thanks.

Lawrence Kurzius

Analyst

Hey Rob, well first of all, good morning. And regarding the RB, we don’t have anything new to report on RB. We are really tracking right on our plans for RB both from an internal budget standpoint and from the model that we built when we bought the business. We hit a couple of important milestones this quarter as we mentioned on the call at the transfer to our systems and we put the business on our SAP system. And well at the end of the transition of services agreement that’s [really] (Ph) to control the business. Regarding the 1% in EMEA. Really, again I struggle calling it a synergy and we built certain amount of growth into our plans for RB and we are still confident in getting those and I think we are on-track with that. Frankly in the international part of the business, the biggest, I would say net positive story that we had for the quarter outside of the U.S. business was in Mexico. Where we transitioned the business to our longstanding joint venture partner down there and have gotten off to a very strong start. The EMEA, I would say is more of what we had originally planned for the business, it’s part of the wrap of the existing business that was there and their sales team is just starting to get traction on that. Regarding the early bonuses, the original guidance was - did not contemplate that but our current guidance does reflect the full impact of Tax Reform including that when we gave that initial guidance, the Tax Reform Act was still new, we were deciding, how we are going to use it. We said, we would make investments in growth and in making ourselves more competitive. That we have used the majority of the benefit though to pay down debt which would mean dropping it down to the bottom-line into cash, but that is still on plan. Nonetheless, we thought that this was good and prudent action for us to take as well. Mike, do you want to elaborate on that at all.

Michael Smith

Analyst

I think as you said, including our guidance and I will leave it at that.

Robert Moskow

Analyst

Just quantitatively, I think I said $7 million, is that roughly the new expense that we should be thinking about in the guidance?

Lawrence Kurzius

Analyst

No.

Michael Smith

Analyst

Way less than that. It's not material.

Lawrence Kurzius

Analyst

Yes.

Robert Moskow

Analyst

Okay well alright. Alright, thank you.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is from the line of Alexia Howard with Bernstein. Please proceed with your questions.

Alexia Howard

Analyst

Good morning everyone.

Michael Smith

Analyst

Hi, Alexia.

Alexia Howard

Analyst

Hello, again. So I just wanted to ask about what are the risks to the margin expansion from here, compared with a lot of the maybe more U.S. centric food companies, you seem to be defying gravity on margin expansion across many pieces of the business. Is it that your quantity cost are a little bit more favorable, or are there other more favorable dynamics I guess with operational leverage from growing expansion and also more specifically what are the risks to margin expansion going forward given the more challenging retailer environment particularly in the Americas? Thank You and I will pass it on.

Michael Smith

Analyst

Hey, Alexia, it’s Mike. I will take the first crack at it. As we mentioned, a significant part of the margin expansion was due to RB Foods and the accretion we're getting from has come through our P&L, we really like that. But our underlying business has been strong as you alluded to, we have had a really good CCI performance that is our fuel for growth as we talked about and last year, we hit a $170 million and we are off to a strong start in the first quarter of fiscal 2018. We have also seen a shift as we talked about, a shift from higher value products across our portfolio, especially on the Flavor Solutions side of the business and then if you think of about it, we had mid-single-digit inflation last year as we took pricing mid last year. So we had some positive wrap that’s happened in the first half of 2018, so that has helped the margins on the core business. As far as risk going forward, we have low single-digit cost increases this year. We have low single-digit pricing plan. In the environment as you alluded to is more difficult than it has been in the past from a retailer perspective that's a lot more fact based selling, but we feel that all these price increases are justified and are supportable and frankly most of our pricing impact this year is from pricing actions implemented in 2017.

Alexia Howard

Analyst

Great. Thank you very much. I will pass it on.

Lawrence Kurzius

Analyst

Hello, and if I could just elaborate on that. I don’t want to miss the fact that there has been portfolio migration. So we have had great growth and high margin - of our business and we have actively discontinued some low margin business. We have a strong overall growth rate this year and so we're taking advantage of that to use this as an opportunity to get to some low margin business, which has a slight dampening effect on the sales line, but which really runs through. I mean, you can just see it in the margins that we are achieving. So we think it's pretty sustainable.

Alexia Howard

Analyst

Great. Thank you very much. I will pass it on.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Ken Goldman with JP Morgan. Please proceed with your questions.

Kenneth Goldman

Analyst · JP Morgan. Please proceed with your questions.

Hi good morning.

Lawrence Kurzius

Analyst · JP Morgan. Please proceed with your questions.

Good morning.

Michael Smith

Analyst · JP Morgan. Please proceed with your questions.

Hello, Ken.

Kenneth Goldman

Analyst · JP Morgan. Please proceed with your questions.

Hey guys. So there has been a lot of discussion lately obviously about - maybe the balance of power between manufacturers and retailers in the food and home industry, you guys obviously have some of what I would consider the best brands in food and home, but if you look at a couple of different things, right, we have a de-load, your pricing this quarter was up by the lowest amount by my model anyway in over seven years and if you look at your LTM receivables as a percentage of sales, they have been creeping up to even before the RB deal. So I guess I'm just trying to get a sense in your opinion, I know we have talked about this a little bit in the past, but are these trends, these factors, are they somewhat one-time in nature obviously the de-load is, but has it really become and is this indicative to some extent of how much more difficult it is to manage these customer relationships than it used to be. I’m just trying to get a sense of how much the world continues to change, it feels like every week we are hearing about more and more may be manufacturers unable to pass on pricing?

Lawrence Kurzius

Analyst · JP Morgan. Please proceed with your questions.

Well there is always an appropriate amount, I think we used the word commercial tension and the discussion of pricing with customers and I don’t say that the environment for taking pricing right now is pretty challenging and per any kind of general price increase you are going to get a lot of push back that’s pretty hard. The reason it not that much pricing in our quarters that most of the pricing that we have got as Mike mentioned is a wrap. The pricing that we have taken has been more of a surgical nature that has been justified by commodity increases and our commodities are different than everybody else’s commodity. So those increases have been fairly specific and we have really been able to get the pricing away. I’m not saying that it was easy, I will say just the opposite of that these are challenging compensations with the customer, but we are still able to get the pricing that we need to get to cover our commodities. On the industrial side of our business, we tend to operate with transparency on cost so the customer understands where the cost is coming from and many of our longer term customers their exposure to commodity is really booked back-to-back and we will take coverage of the fiscal commodity to backup their needs. So really the pricing discussions across the full spectrum of our business while challenging, are pretty well managed. The de-load that we mentioned earlier has nothing to do with pricing or balance the power. In the U.S. in particular, trades inventories did come down during the first quarter, I’m talking about in the consumer side of the business. I think others have commented on that, there is no secret that everyone is trying to be more efficient with their working capital, we certainly are and our customers are as well. And especially around the end of the fiscal year there is a lot of pressure on the customer inventories, they are trying to say I would say invest dress up their year-end numbers and that falls into our first quarter which is our lowest volume quarter. It does have a meaningful impact. We estimate that actually the customers’ inventory drawdown in the first quarter of the year was about 2% headwind on our consumer business which - versus actual consumption took up about half of the growth that we would have otherwise seen. And I would say that we are not overly worried or surprised by that. We saw similar pattern last year where in the first quarter of the year there was strong draw down of trade inventories and then relatively flat for the rest of the year. And so I would hope to see a similar pattern this year. And you mentioned something about receivables, I didn’t really understand.

Kenneth Goldman

Analyst · JP Morgan. Please proceed with your questions.

Yes, I can follow-up with that afterward, it’s not a big deal. I just had a one quick follow-up and that’s very helpful answer. You said it was about 2% of consumer, was that total consumer or consumer Americas, if it was total consumers side.

Lawrence Kurzius

Analyst · JP Morgan. Please proceed with your questions.

Consumer Americas.

Kenneth Goldman

Analyst · JP Morgan. Please proceed with your questions.

Consumer Americas. Okay, thank you very much.

Michael Smith

Analyst · JP Morgan. Please proceed with your questions.

Hey Ken, just one follow-up on your point on pricing. We have talked about it being a low pricing quarter. Last year’s mid-single-digit price increases really were driven a lot by Vanilla and we saw a lot of Vanilla in the second half of the year. First quarter, we don’t sell a lot of Vanilla, so that's the reason for the percentage is a little less than it might have been last year.

Kenneth Goldman

Analyst · JP Morgan. Please proceed with your questions.

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

The next question today comes from the line of Jonathan Feeney with Consumer Edge. Please proceed with your questions.

Jonathan Feeney

Analyst

Hey, good morning thanks very much. You have had some pretty impressive growth in the Flavor Solutions business. And I know a part of that going back historically has been strength in one key, but several quick serve customers, but overall, it seems like you are gaining a little bit of share and certainly emphasizing that a little bit more. And I wondering Lawrence about the competitive landscape. When you talk about the new capabilities you are bringing to customers - are you typically winning new business from other players, or as you move up market not to just the coatings and ingredients where maybe if you look part of your business historically to more flavor systems. Where are you sourcing that business. Is it competitors or is it new business wins? Thank you.

Lawrence Kurzius

Analyst

Hey Jonathan, well for us it's new business wins, but there is no such things as a white space out there. So those new business wins from us is definitely coming from other competitors and flavor is the growing business. So I expect the flavor on the industrial side is growing as well, but we're definitely winning new business. Even within our existing customer base, I believe we are continuing to win, but as the new customers that we have added definitely puts us - we're definitely gaining share in that part of the business. So we really wanted to call it out, because I think that this has been something that's been underappreciated. For the last three years, we have been a been in a real consorted efforts to be more of a flavor, value added flavor supplier, more of a flavor house and to migrate away from some of the legacy commodity business that was in that industrial business. And so yes, we can share gains. Mike do you want to.

John Feeney

Analyst

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Chris Growe with Stifel. Please proceed with your questions.

Christopher Growe

Analyst · Stifel. Please proceed with your questions.

Hi good morning.

Michael Smith

Analyst · Stifel. Please proceed with your questions.

Good morning Chris.

Lawrence Kurzius

Analyst · Stifel. Please proceed with your questions.

Good morning Chris.

Christopher Growe

Analyst · Stifel. Please proceed with your questions.

Hi. So I just want to ask just to be clear bit of a follow-ups from earlier question. It sounds like you expect the inventory levels to remain at these low levels going forward, this is the second year of the reduction though early in the year. Are they too low, and we have heard this from other companies that at times they are reaching down to quite low levels in relation to the shelf being fully stocked. Are you seeing any issues at that at retailer now?

Lawrence Kurzius

Analyst · Stifel. Please proceed with your questions.

That's a good point. I think with the individual customers, they very often do overshoot and come back, but I don't want to get too caught up in the individual customer anecdotes, when you roll it all up together, the general trend of trade inventory is downward. Everybody is applying new technology and putting greater emphasis and trying to be more efficient, so there is a general downward trend. And while we have just looking back at our historical data seeing that that the impact tends to be biggest in our first quarter, again it's the combination of both customers having their year-end spend and it's our lightest seasonal quarter of the year. So that is a factor, but we don’t generally see it coming back over the course of the year. So there is a downward step in inventory. How low is too low for the industry, I don’t know, once the inventory is taken out, it’s out and so to continue to have the same impact, they have got take out another tranche of inventory, but we think that this is a long-term trend then and frankly it’s not a surprise to us and we think that it’s actually healthy for the industry.

Michael Smith

Analyst · Stifel. Please proceed with your questions.

There has been a lot of consolidation in the industry too some recent [indiscernible] inventory and the supply chain and it really drives us to drive our a C2C favorable and we are doing the same thing.

Christopher Growe

Analyst · Stifel. Please proceed with your questions.

Okay. Just another question if I could, in relation to you discussed more value added products, I think in relation to like the gross margin performance. So I’m just curious of the private label performance versus the brand performance for McCormick and have you lapped that conversion of that large customer to private label, is that an ongoing negative for the business, is it due to promotional efforts or due to the actual still lapping of that label change?

Michael Smith

Analyst · Stifel. Please proceed with your questions.

First of all, that label change we have not lapped it, that was a label change that really happened really mostly over this last quarter and started in the fourth quarter and was fully in effect. Really I won’t say maybe not even fully in the effect of this quarter. It might have been falling partially in effect for December, so no we haven’t lapped it, but still things happen there. First it was the conversion from a controlled brand to private label. For us that was financially neutral, that control label already had a margin start that was comparable to our private label and you know we are large supplier of private label in herbs and spices. This is a profitable business for us, it does not have the same growth margins in this brand but has a decent operating margin and the impact of that label change was really neutral. A part that hurt, it was a decision by the customer to do some extraordinary pricing and merchandizing on that product. And to the extent it traded down consumers from brand to that label it was a negative for both for us and frankly it was a negative for the customer profitability as well, which they fully understand at this point.

Christopher Growe

Analyst · Stifel. Please proceed with your questions.

And then from a higher level private label versus branded for McCormick overall and what that meant for your gross margin. There was mix of factor from the benefit of the gross margin there.

Michael Smith

Analyst · Stifel. Please proceed with your questions.

I mean overall it’s a slight detriment as Lawrence mentioned. They had a lower gross margin, but from an operating profit perspective and a working capital efficiency perspective, it’s not that far from the bottom line operating profit for consumer. It grows a lot of overhead in our plans, we only do private label for the large customers, we don’t see a lot of good type private label. So it’s good business for us, not only in U.S. that we do in EMEA also.

Christopher Growe

Analyst · Stifel. Please proceed with your questions.

Okay. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Adam Samuelson with Goldman Sachs. Please proceed with your question.

Adam Samuelson

Analyst · Goldman Sachs. Please proceed with your question.

Yes, thanks good morning everyone.

Michael Smith

Analyst · Goldman Sachs. Please proceed with your question.

Good morning.

Adam Samuelson

Analyst · Goldman Sachs. Please proceed with your question.

Maybe first just on the point on the mixes in the portfolio and you talked about that being a tailwind to the results this quarter. Any clarity or color you could provide by business line or region where that was a particularly notable benefit or is that pretty broad based across the whole business?

Lawrence Kurzius

Analyst · Goldman Sachs. Please proceed with your question.

No I think Adam, if you look how we described and Asia Pacific as an example exiting some lower margin business there, trying to make optimize our portfolio we are focusing more flavors globally for Flavor Solutions. And again for a very clear example, we talked about any specific, we walked away from very low little margin business and we want to use those resources to move up the value chain for the product lines. Now that’s a consistent message across Flavor Solutions the Asia-Pacific is one we specifically highlighted.

Adam Samuelson

Analyst · Goldman Sachs. Please proceed with your question.

Okay, that’s helpful. And then just a question in consumer, in EMEA. I know, the UK business has been challenged there for some time, given a host of dynamics. But any update there, I don’t hear any color on the UK business in the consumer discussion.

Lawrence Kurzius

Analyst · Goldman Sachs. Please proceed with your question.

Actually for the UK business, that business has stabilized, I know that for a great deal of last year there was a drag on EMEA performance. We had slight growth and in the UK this last quarter. It wasn’t so spectacular that we are going to call out, but it’s no longer a drag on the business as it was. We are optimistic that we have got that business on-track.

Adam Samuelson

Analyst · Goldman Sachs. Please proceed with your question.

Okay great, that’s all, it very helpful, I will pass it on.

Operator

Operator

The next question is from the line of Brett Hundley with The Vertical Group. Please proceed with your question.

Brett Hundley

Analyst

Hey good morning guys, thanks for taking my questions. I just have a two part question on your Flavor Solutions business. So the first part of it maybe for you Mike. We estimate EBITDA margins for that business somewhere near 14.5% and the previous management team was really loath to kind of talk about where margins could go overtime and you guys don’t have to give a number this morning. But have you guys updated your thoughts and beliefs on what type of margins structure might be possible for this business or rather, if there is continued growth opportunities. Just especially relative to what some of your ingredient peers are doing in the overall pursuit of kind of 20% EBITDA margins overtime. So that’s the first part of my question. And then second part of my question. There was a transaction announced yesterday, where one of the largest flavor and fragrance producers is buying a natural based ingredient company. And the multiple paid was well over 20 times forward EBITDA and it really showcases just how much more established F&F companies are willing to pay from market positioning and elevated revenue growth prospects. And your industrial Flavor Solutions business is attractively positioned, it’s also really in interwoven into your consumer platform in many respects. But I guess my question is, are there select areas of your Flavor Solutions business maybe the 50% that’s more leveraged to food and beverage peers. But are there select areas of your Flavor Solutions business where McCormick might be willing to take advantage of heighten strategy demand from other ingredient entities and divest these assets into financial capital that could be used for debt pay down or consumer uses or anything like that? Thank you.

Lawrence Kurzius

Analyst

Well good Brett, I know you directed this to Mike, but this is Lawrence. I’m going to start on this, I’m going to start on the second one and then let Mike talk about the EBITDA margin. Of course we are aware of that transaction, we are currently out of the markets, this would have been a target that would have been on our list of possible targets as well I would say on the list of the usual suspects. As we said, we are not doing any transactions right now, because we are going to pay down the debt from the one that we just did. But we're certainly aware of the asset and the valuation that was paid for, I think was 24 times, and now we're also kind of see a bunch of deals being done since we bought RB Foods with higher multiples than we paid for that. But it just shows the demand in the market for assets that are growing. As far as we see our businesses as being a broad flavor business, both consumer and industrial. We have got a benefit of scale from having both of those businesses, they are well intertwined and at this time, we are into growing that flavor business with the intent of making it even bigger, stronger part of our business and not with an eye to building something that we would be divesting. We do constantly look at our portfolio for opportunities, and right now, really what we think - we're thinking more in terms of pruning the low-margin business rather than selling off the high margin businesses.

Michael Smith

Analyst

Yes. As far as the EBITDA margin, I wouldn't say we're loath to giving a target, but we're not going to give a target. A portions of the Flavor Solutions portfolio have really nice consumer like margins, the flavor side of the business. The Food Service side, we have seen with RB Foods as how accretive that is. So as we continue to migrate that portfolio you should see continued increase there. From an ROIC perspective, actually right now it’s pretty close to consumer ROIC because its higher working capital efficiency, but you should see improvements there going forward and we do have internal targets. Right now, there was a long period of time for those of you who have followed us for a long time was there was a goal of getting this up to 10% margin. We have gotten well past that from an operating profit margin, we have gotten well past that and while we haven’t set a long-term target, but we continue to see opportunity for that margin to improve.

Brett Hundley

Analyst

Thank you for your comments.

Operator

Operator

The next question comes from the line of Rob Dickerson with Deustche Bank. Proceed with your questions.

Robert Dickerson

Analyst · Deustche Bank. Proceed with your questions.

Great, thank you very much. Just one quick question and then a couple of follow-ups. The seasonality on the RB business, I know you said before I think Q4 was obviously the most heavily weighted for the year. Can you give us any perspective as to kind of what the breakout would be Q1,Q2, Q3 just for sales.

Michael Smith

Analyst · Deustche Bank. Proceed with your questions.

This is Mike. Q1 is the lowest quarter. It's a little less than 20% of the total year, but that 20% - a little over 20% in that range. The fourth quarter is the strongest, the second and third quarter obviously is a grilling season, they are roughly comparable after that, but it will steadily increase from this base. It’s not that different than our core business, heavily back weighted [for years] (Ph) and for cash too, kind of the same trends.

Robert Dickerson

Analyst · Deustche Bank. Proceed with your questions.

Okay, cool. Perfect. And then in terms of tax rate on 2019, I mean I know 2018 changes because of I guess the one-time we saw this quarter, so the 23% essentially implies you still get 24% for the remainder of the year and then kind of what you put in the K, the 25% to 26% on 2019, I'm assuming that's still holds?

Michael Smith

Analyst · Deustche Bank. Proceed with your questions.

Yes. I would go with that right now. There is so many moving parts with this Tax Act and as the department of revenue gets into it and into technical adjustments, we will reassess it then.

Robert Dickerson

Analyst · Deustche Bank. Proceed with your questions.

Okay, perfect. And then just last question. In terms of the implied organic for the year, the 3% to 5%, now correct me if I’m wrong, I know you did Q2 and Q1, the comp is still a little bit more difficult for the year. But yes, I mean it sounds like the inventory reductions are one-time in nature. It sounds you might have accelerating shipments then based off of consumption go forward. So I’m just curious to kind of get to that 3%, 5% with more difficult compares but in Q2 and Q1, what drives the implied acceleration, is it just better innovation, it’s volume driven? It doesn’t seem like there is a ton of pricing coming. So any color on that would be helpful. I will pass it on.

Lawrence Kurzius

Analyst · Deustche Bank. Proceed with your questions.

Well, I will start and I will past it to Mike. I mean it pretty much follows the same case as last year. Last year we had a very large growth in the first quarter and then accelerated as we went through the year and then with a solid organic growth I would say that this year looks pretty much the same. In our look at through the year there is no extraordinary hockey stick or anything like that. It’s pretty much shipping to consumption.

Michael Smith

Analyst · Deustche Bank. Proceed with your questions.

And new products generally launch have an impact later in the year, fourth quarter is a biggest quarter as we have talked about, so having 2% increase in the first quarter which is our smallest quarter can easily be offset by having a strong third and fourth. So we are comfortable with the outlook.

Robert Dickerson

Analyst · Deustche Bank. Proceed with your questions.

Fair enough. Thank you.

Michael Smith

Analyst · Deustche Bank. Proceed with your questions.

Thanks Rob.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our final question today is from the line of Akshay Jagdale with Jefferies. Please proceed with your question.

Akshay Jagdale

Analyst

Thanks for the question. I wanted to also ask about the base business. You mentioned the conversion, but I wanted to ask about the promotional aspect. I know one or two large retailers had specifically been reacting to the hard discounters with certain promotions that were expected to go away and can you give us an update on that? And just related to the U.S. business, I want to make sure I understand your commentary on inventory. So yes, inventories are coming down overtime and that will continue. But relative to consumption though, over a long period of time your consumption generally has matched shipments, right, I mean there is no material gap there that is widening or even if there is a gap right, like over time shouldn’t shipments just match what people are consuming and I want to make sure there is no change there? And if you could just comment on the retailer promotions on some of the private label items and where that’s trending? Thank you.

Lawrence Kurzius

Analyst

Sure Akshay. Well first of all, regarding the retail commercial that you are talking about, we only really highlighted one customer. It’s a non-grocery customer, we don’t like to say name of customers on calls, so I’m not going to say the name, but everyone probably knows who that is and it’s the exact situation that we talked about on the January call, there was a control label product that we sold them, they converted it to private label. And again as we have already said, I won’t dwell on I again, hat was really financially neutral to us, but then there were some heavy promotions that were run on that and to the extent that brands down that was a negative. Trade consumer is down from brands that was a negative for us and it was a financial negative for the retailers. We did this as part of an overall storewide program that included many, many other product categories to do price competitive against what they perceived as a strong platform discount, retailers who are entering the market and this is not specifically targeted at a store or useful at our category. Pretty much the customer is responsible for that category and it's P&L, has heard our category management story and understand what the impact of that decision was on category profitability. And they have read it through in their own numbers as well. We told them what was going to happen beforehand, they went ahead anyway. They now know what the impact really was, what we said it would be and so they are reconsidering doing how that moves ahead. And that promotion is really winding down I would say. And if you were to visit that customer store you would find that special pricing and promotional display is pretty much the exceptional on a store-by-store basis rather than the rule. So we think it was the transitory. It might happen again, it goes to the customer strategy for their overall business and not to the strategy on the spice category. So we think we have that largely behind us. On the trade inventory, that was the Americas inventory that we were talking about, there wasn't has been the reduction in customer inventory overtime. And had a more pronounced impact on the last quarter. We, has seen that in previous quarters, it just hasn't really been worth talking about, but in the customer in fourth quarter was that they are driving probably the largest reduction and that's up against our first quarter which has our lowest volumes in turns into a meaningful percentage and that was why we felt its worth commenting on this call. Mike, do you want add anything?

Michael Smith

Analyst

Perfect. And the question about consumption over time. We are still shipping to consumption over time generally.

Akshay Jagdale

Analyst

Okay, I will pass it on. Thank you.

Lawrence Kurzius

Analyst

Great, thanks Akshay.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. I will now turn the floor to Lawrence Kurzius for closing remarks.

Lawrence Kurzius

Analyst

Great. Well thanks everyone for your questions and for participating on today's call. McCormick is a global leader in flavor and with differentiated with a broad and advantaged portfolio which continues to drive growth. We are responding readily to changes in the industry with new ideas with innovation and with purpose. And with a clear focus on growth, performance and people. We continue to perform strong globally and build shareholder value. I'm pleased with our strong results to start the year. And I'm confident in our continuing momentum for growth in 2018 and look forward to reporting to you on shareholder value we will continue to create.

Kasey Jenkins

Operator

Thank you Lawrence and thanks to all for joining today’s call. If you have any further questions regarding today's information you can reach us at 410-771-7140. This concludes this morning's conference call.