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McCormick & Company, Incorporated (MKC)

Q3 2019 Earnings Call· Tue, Oct 1, 2019

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Transcript

Kasey Jenkins

Operator

Good morning. This is Kasey Jenkins, Vice President of McCormick Investor Relations. Thank you for joining today's Third Quarter Earnings Call. To accompany this call, we have posted a set of slides at ir.mccormick.com. Currently, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Following our remarks, we will begin a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] We'll begin with remarks from Lawrence Kurzius, Chairman, President and CEO and Mike Smith, Executive Vice President and CFO. During our remarks, we will refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures. These include information in constant currency, as well as adjusted operating income, adjusted income tax rate and adjusted earnings per share that exclude the impact of special charges, as well as the net non-recurring income tax benefit associated with the December 2017 U.S. tax reform legislation and for 2018 transaction and intervention expenses related to the acquisition of our Frank's and French's brand. Reconciliations to GAAP results are included in this morning's press release and slides. In our comments, certain percentages are rounded. Please refer to our presentation, which includes the complete information. In addition, as a reminder, today's presentation contains projections and other forward-looking statements. Actual results could differ materially from those projected. The Company undertakes no obligation to update or revise publicly any forward-looking statement, whether because of new information, future events, or other factors. As seen on Slide 2, our forward-looking statement also provides information on risk factors that could affect our financial results. It is now my pleasure to turn the discussion over to Lawrence.

Lawrence Kurzius

Analyst

Thank you, Kasey. Good morning everyone. Thanks for joining us. Our solid third quarter and year-to-date results reflect the successful execution of our strategies and engagement of employees around the world. We've driven strong sales, operating profit and adjusted EPS growth, as well as operating margin expansions, while continuing to make targeted investments and fuel future growth. As we enter the last quarter of our fiscal year, we're confident in our growth trajectory and that we're well positioned to deliver strong results in 2019. Starting on Slide 4, our broad and advantaged global flavor portfolio continues to position us to meet the demand for flavor around the world to grow our business. The breadth and reach of our portfolio across segments, geographies, channels, customers and product offerings, creates a balanced portfolio to drive consistency in our performance in a volatile environment. This quarter, our particularly strong consumer sales growth in the Americas and Asia Pacific regions outweighed flavor solution softness in those same regions. Within our Consumer segment, our third quarter highlights include broad based U.S. and China growth, with strong contributions from both base business and new products. In our Flavor Solutions segment, our EMEA region drove growth in flavors, branded food service and condiments, driven by new products and the base business. We're confident our breath and reach will also continue to differentiate McCormick, and be the foundation of our sales growth as consumers' demand for flavor continues to rise. Now let me go into more detail on our third quarter performance as seen on Slide 5, as well as provide some business comments before turning it over to Mike who will go in more depth on the quarter end results and discuss our 2019 financial guidance. Starting with our top line for the third quarter. Third quarter…

Mike Smith

Analyst

Thanks, Lawrence, and good morning everyone. As Lawrence indicated, we delivered strong growth in the third quarter. I'll begin with the discussion of our results followed with details on our updated full year 2019 financial outlook. Turning at Slide 10. We grew sales 2% in constant currency. This growth was driven by the base business and new products, and was led by our consumer segment. The Consumer segment sales rose 4% in constant currency. This growth was driven by the Americas and Asia-Pacific regions, and was attributable to higher volume and product mix of both base business and new products. Turning to Slide 11. We grew consumer segment sales in the Americas to 4% in constant currency versus the third quarter of 2018 due to higher volume and product mix. New products, category management and strong brand marketing drove broad based growth across the portfolio, both from a brand and a product category perspective with private label also contributing to the growth. Constant currency consumer sales in EMEA were down 2% from a year ago. Sales growth in the region was impacted by extreme high temperatures as Lawrence's already mentioned, as well as a decline in private label sales and unfavorable pricing actions related to planned trade promotional activity for new products. In the Asia-Pacific region, we grew constant currency sales 15% led by China, higher volume and product mix, as well as pricing drove the increase with strength in herbs and spices, world flavor sauces and chicken bouillon. The earlier timing of a China national holiday versus last year partially contributed to the third quarter's increased sales volume. Turning to our Flavor Solutions segment on Slide 14, third quarter constant currency sales were comparable to the year ago period with growth in EMEA, offset by declines in the Americas…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. At this time, we will be conducting a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from line of Andrew Lazar with Barclays. Please proceed with your question.

Andrew Lazar

Analyst

I guess first off, when we look at the new full-year guidance on sales and EBIT, I guess they both imply a 4Q that looks a bit below at least where sort of current Street models would be. I'm just curious if there are any sort of discrete issues that you'd point out for that. You did mention some increased marketing investment, which obviously would impact EBIT a bit, but just because also the comparison, obviously, year-over-year gets a quite a bit easier given the inventory issues of last year.

Mike Smith

Analyst

Andrew, I'll start. And if Lawrence has anything -- I mean year to date, we're really happy with our performance of 3% constant currency growth. And once you start looking at the math, if we would have kept our guidance at the original 3% to 5%, we would have to grow sales growth almost 9%. So we tightened the range a bit on those sales and operating profit. We have some -- you talked about EMEA weather in the third quarter. That's not going to be recovered. There's a few things like that, that happened. But 3% to 4%, we still feel like that's really good net sales performance, and we do see the underlying strength in Americas consumer continuing, which we talked about on the last call.

Andrew Lazar

Analyst

Thank you for that. Appreciate that. And then I guess one follow-up would just be, it doesn't sound like this was a benefit much at all because you didn't mention it, but the acceleration you saw in consumer Americas, you talked about it being broad-based. And so I just want to make sure there wasn't, didn't seem to be because you talked about takeaway and shipments being in line broadly, but I'm assuming there is no pull forward, if you will, in consumer Americas that would have benefited shipments just given the easier comparison or the fact that with a replenished inventory, if you will, going into fourth quarter it doesn't like sound like that was a benefit, but I just wanted to make sure.

Lawrence Kurzius

Analyst

No. Andrew, this is Lawrence. There was really, I mean, we really ship to consumption in the third quarter and would expect to ship to consumption again going into the fourth quarter. We signaled that we'd have, on our last call that we'd have an acceleration as we went to the second half of the year, and so we're starting to see that read through in our consumer business. So we feel very confident in our results, in our outlook for the fourth quarter. One of the reasons that the third quarter might have looked stronger on our shipments than in, I think, some of the scanner data, which was actually pretty good, is that, again, unmeasured channels were really strong for us. And so that was a bit of a benefit in the third quarter. But that's been a consistent thing, where that group of customers has been growing faster than the general market. But in terms of whether there was any kind of unusual inventory activity or any kind of pull forward, that wasn't the case. If you look at last year third quarter, we grew about 4% in Americas consumer, so roughly about the same. Actually, we feel really good about the third quarter because it's up against a pretty tough comparison a year ago.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Ken Goldman with JP Morgan. Please proceed with your question.

Ken Goldman

Analyst · JP Morgan. Please proceed with your question.

My first question is, in your slide deck, you called out a onetime benefit from the global benefit plan alignment. I don't think you quantified this for us. I'm just curious how much was it? And I don't think it was included in that net special charges of $7.7 million, but I just wanted to make sure for our modeling purposes.

Mike Smith

Analyst · JP Morgan. Please proceed with your question.

No, we haven't quantified it, Ken. We've talked about it, I think, pretty much every quarter. But we're not going to quantify that. Every year...

Lawrence Kurzius

Analyst · JP Morgan. Please proceed with your question.

We say something like this every year as we've looked at our benefit plans with an eye to cost.

Ken Goldman

Analyst · JP Morgan. Please proceed with your question.

That's not going to stop me from asking every quarter though.

Lawrence Kurzius

Analyst · JP Morgan. Please proceed with your question.

You got one more -- one quarter left, Ken, one quarter left.

Ken Goldman

Analyst · JP Morgan. Please proceed with your question.

When you guys do well, it's hard to find questions, so we got to figure some out here. I guess my next question would be a couple of U.S.-based staples companies that have multinational businesses, they have highlighted maybe some modest softness in demand from emerging markets lately. It doesn't sound like you're experiencing this, but are there any, I don't want to call them red flags, maybe yellow flags that you're seeing that would indicate some consumer slippage in terms of their demand in some developed markets or developing, rather? Or is this not really something that you're experiencing yet?

Lawrence Kurzius

Analyst · JP Morgan. Please proceed with your question.

Yes. So I think the comparison between us and some of our peer companies might just be the mix of markets that we're in. We're cautious about China. We just had a great quarter in China, but we are aware of the volatile environment that we're in. The consumer results that we've had in China have been pretty good. We had a slow start to the year. We expected a strong second half there as well, and we're experiencing it. So I'd say that with our international business, if there was an area that was slow for us over the third quarter, it was -- EMEA was a little slow, and that was strictly related to the tremendous heat wave that impacted cooking, and that's where a lot of our consumer products are used. So we don't see anything general in the emerging markets. With that said, we're not taking it for granted. We're one tweet away from more volatility.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Alexia Howard with Bernstein. Please proceed with your question.

Alexia Howard

Analyst · Bernstein. Please proceed with your question.

Good morning, everyone. So two quick questions, I guess, on the top line guidance I know you trimmed it down a little bit for the full year this quarter, but it still kind of implies that things will get sequentially better next quarter. I'm wondering if that's particularly on the flavor solutions side of things that you've got -- have you got visibility into things picking up on that side? That's my first question. And the second one on a very different topic, you mentioned acquisitions as something that you're keeping a close eye on. Could you talk to us a little bit about where you're fishing at the moment, I guess? Given that the RB Foods deal was very U.S.-centric, is it likely that if you do another deal of scale that, that would be maybe more overseas-focused and that you're likely to be looking at consumer versus flavor solutions? Just any guidance or any thoughts on that front will be helpful.

Lawrence Kurzius

Analyst · Bernstein. Please proceed with your question.

Sure. Well, I'll start on the first one. And yes, we do expect an acceleration in the flavor solutions part of the business. It was impacted in Q3 by some relatively short-term factors. There's some customer activity differences, and we're also comparing to an incredible third quarter a year ago, which you may recall had a 6% growth in the third quarter of last year. So it was up against a particularly strong comparison. And then we had, just as an operating matter, a transition to a new warehouse in the U.S. that also was a very brief constraint on growth in the quarter. And so I think that as we've got -- so we're confident that the fourth quarter will be strong in flavor solutions. And I think we've been messaging for the last couple of quarters that we expect second half to be good on our consumer business, and our outlook for that remains that way. Mike, do you want to add anything to that?

Mike Smith

Analyst · Bernstein. Please proceed with your question.

No, thank you.

Lawrence Kurzius

Analyst · Bernstein. Please proceed with your question.

I'll say on acquisitions. So we don't want to get overly granular in the discussion of acquisitions. But as we've shared previously as we've deleveraged and you just heard from Mike that we finished Q3 at 3.7 and you know we're going into our highest cash time of the year, so some additional deleveraging would happen as we go through the fourth quarter. We've got very clear line of sight to getting to the 3.0 target that we set for the end of 2020 early. And as a result, it's just time to start considering -- we've got more financial flexibility now than we had a year ago, and it's time to look at new things. And I'd say that, as you noted, the RB Foods acquisition did skew us more to the Americas than we were, and it also skewed us a bit more to the consumer business than we were pre-acquisition. And we would hope to, over time, balance that.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Robert Moskow with Credit Suisse. Please proceed with your question.

Robert Moskow

Analyst · Credit Suisse. Please proceed with your question.

The thing that really stood out to me was the operating leverage in the consumer division. I mean you had high-teens operating income growth in the quarter and, obviously, some strong sales, too. Can you kind of help us break down though like how much of that growth was from operating leverage from the volume, how much of it was from maybe cost reductions related to the special charges?

Mike Smith

Analyst · Credit Suisse. Please proceed with your question.

Well, I'd say -- this is Mike. It's really not related to special charges at all. We have underlying CCI program which continues to accelerate during the year. However, we have really good product mix and category mix. The brands that did really well such as French's and Frank's, our core business have very high margins. So I think you're getting a bit of product mix, I know you're getting a bit of product mix in there as well.

Lawrence Kurzius

Analyst · Credit Suisse. Please proceed with your question.

I think, if anything, there may have even been some operating cost headwinds related to our ERP program that would have run through both segments.

Robert Moskow

Analyst · Credit Suisse. Please proceed with your question.

And then on the fourth quarter -- or actually, just on flavor solutions in general, can you be a little more specific about the constraints you had in the warehousing? Is that for raw materials for spices and seasonings? Or is it for the liquid filled part of your business that was growing so strong? And then a follow-up would be, you mentioned a customer that had some timing issues. Is that in the restaurant sector or the consumer sector? Could you be more specific there?

Lawrence Kurzius

Analyst · Credit Suisse. Please proceed with your question.

Well, the warehouse, it was a move to raw material -- a new, larger and I would say more functional raw material warehouse. It actually was on the higher-margin side of the business that had a bigger impact on our flavor and seasoning business where we've had a lot of growth. So in addition to our overall growth that you've seen in our flavor solutions business over the last several years, there's also been a shift in the portfolio toward that higher-margin end of the business. And so the growth in that part has been particularly strong, and we've just outgrown the space and needed to make a move. And so just the logistics of physically transferring the goods and coming up with a new warehouse put short-term constraint on our growth that we'll get -- we're really, at this point in time, almost through. So I think that gives a lot of confidence in the Q4 number over there. Rob, remind what was the second part of the question?

Robert Moskow

Analyst · Credit Suisse. Please proceed with your question.

You mentioned a customer that had some timing issues.

Lawrence Kurzius

Analyst · Credit Suisse. Please proceed with your question.

It's not a customer. This is just broad-based ebb and flow in the business. I mean there is some customer concentration, but I wouldn't read into this any particular new customer...

Mike Smith

Analyst · Credit Suisse. Please proceed with your question.

It was timing of new promotions and things like that. You saw year to date roughly 5% in Americas, so good strong performance through the first half. So good underlying performance still and strong demand.

Robert Moskow

Analyst · Credit Suisse. Please proceed with your question.

Can I assume that's the restaurant channel or is this ...

Lawrence Kurzius

Analyst · Credit Suisse. Please proceed with your question.

No, I would not...

Mike Smith

Analyst · Credit Suisse. Please proceed with your question.

Both sides, yes, do not assume.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Chris Growe with Stifel. Please proceed with your question.

Chris Growe

Analyst · Stifel. Please proceed with your question.

Thank you. Good morning. I just had a question for you, if I could. Just to make sure I get it straight around the upcoming fourth quarter. You got that shipment timing factor in the prior year. Have you said what that adds to the fourth quarter this year? And we've talked about this, but have you given some dynamics around what it's likely to be for revenue growth in the fourth quarter?

Mike Smith

Analyst · Stifel. Please proceed with your question.

We haven't specifically called that out. We know it's a tailwind to us in the fourth quarter, assuming those things don't have, but we knew there's always trade deloading and things like that happen during the year, about 100 basis points. But we haven't quantified the bounce back, but it should be positive to growth and margin.

Chris Growe

Analyst · Stifel. Please proceed with your question.

And especially in the consumer division, correct, that's the main area where we said we've missed the fourth quarter a year ago?

Mike Smith

Analyst · Stifel. Please proceed with your question.

Yes.

Chris Growe

Analyst · Stifel. Please proceed with your question.

And then I just had a question. You had pricing down in two of the consumer segments and two of the flavor solutions segments. I'm just curious, I guess from a higher level, how much inflation was up in the quarter. And did pricing not fully offset the cost inflation? And was this promotional-driven by any chance? Just have you seen any kind of change in promotional dynamic in your categories, I guess, especially in the consumer side?

Mike Smith

Analyst · Stifel. Please proceed with your question.

No, I think what -- no, that's a good question. What you're saying -- we've said at the beginning of the year cost inflation was low single digits, and we have taken specific pricing in markets. What you're seeing, in some of the markets, such as EMEA or even in the Americas a bit. As we've talked a lot about new products on this call, as you see. As they roll out, there are some promotional activities to drive them, so that has a bit of a negative on price, but we have taken pricing this year. And so we've gotten that through, and we're actually talking to customers now about pricing for next year as some of the tariffs and things become more solid. So we're in those discussions right now.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Steven Strycula with UBS. Please proceed with your question.

Steven Strycula

Analyst · UBS. Please proceed with your question.

So first question, just wanted to kind of drill into the revised guidance and focus in on what you're really implying for the fourth quarter outlook. As I think about the midpoint of what you're saying for organic net sales to be around 5%, then kind of what are the key drivers of that? That would be question 1, and I have a follow-up.

Mike Smith

Analyst · UBS. Please proceed with your question.

I mean based on our math, Steve, we're implying about 2% to 5%, so somewhere in the middle there, which is a bit up versus the first three quarters. But we talked about before some of the tailwinds go into the fourth quarter. And that's reported by the way. So continuing strength, as we saw in this quarter and a little bit of acceleration with flavor solutions in the fourth quarter, as Lawrence just discussed.

Lawrence Kurzius

Analyst · UBS. Please proceed with your question.

Yes. The change in the guidance for the full year reflects more that we've only got one quarter to go and we've got three in the bag and we know where we are. And the high end of the old range, the previous high end of the range implied a number that you guys would laugh at.

Mike Smith

Analyst · UBS. Please proceed with your question.

Which you did last year.

Lawrence Kurzius

Analyst · UBS. Please proceed with your question.

And so we wanted to narrow it.

Steven Strycula

Analyst · UBS. Please proceed with your question.

It takes a lot to make me laugh, Lawrence, but -- no, just moving along though. What would you say, if anything, not to pick at it, because I know you guys have good results here year to date. But what if anything came in like a touch lighter to kind of like nudge it down, the full-year guidance, a touch on the sales? Is it a reflection of maybe just EMEA weather? Is there anything else you'd kind of like call out for the first nine months or maybe something that you see in line of sight for the fourth quarter?

Mike Smith

Analyst · UBS. Please proceed with your question.

Well, definitely EMEA weather. That was not. Back in June, we weren't thinking that it was going to be that hot it impact consumption. I mean the warehouse transition that Lawrence talked about did impact a bit, but I wouldn't call it one big thing specifically.

Lawrence Kurzius

Analyst · UBS. Please proceed with your question.

Right. As far as looking ahead, I'd say that our -- I think that we've got a balanced view of our risks and our opportunity. That narrowed range does include all organic growth, and it's primarily volume and mix. So it's pretty strong versus peers, and we understand that. Now we've got a lot of reasons to be confident that we can deliver that. And the kind of surprise will be something that we just, would be something that we don't know. I think if there was a surprise anywhere, maybe it might be more on the cost side than on the sales side, where there could be some issue. It's possible that we have a little bit more ERP expense in the fourth quarter than we've been guiding...

Mike Smith

Analyst · UBS. Please proceed with your question.

Than we've had in the third.

Lawrence Kurzius

Analyst · UBS. Please proceed with your question.

Than we had in the third quarter, but I think we would take that in stride, and if that were the case, we would certainly highlight it.

Mike Smith

Analyst · UBS. Please proceed with your question.

Yes. And even our underlying guidance implied, reported is 5.5% to 9% almost, so it's good underlying operating profit performance still.

Lawrence Kurzius

Analyst · UBS. Please proceed with your question.

Good point. We've got a pretty good idea of customer performance for the holidays. It's all pretty well lined up.

Steven Strycula

Analyst · UBS. Please proceed with your question.

Okay, Lawrence. And then one quick strategy question, and then I'll pass it along. On private label, at any given quarter, you guys are -- it's a smaller piece of your business, and the next quarter, it's growing again. How do we think about it strategically? And did the growth that you see in private label in Americas this quarter, is that mainly coming from measured channels, unmeasured channels? How do we think about how you guys think about it within your total customer solution set?

Lawrence Kurzius

Analyst · UBS. Please proceed with your question.

Yes. So first of all, generally, private label growth, not just for us but for our category, for herbs and spices, the category has moderated significantly. And we talked about it in the last couple of years that we thought the numbers were inflated by a couple of factors that I'm not going to review. So the growth in private label has moderated. In the current time frame, the growth that we're seeing in private label is more in the unmeasured channel than in the measured channel. We think about private label in terms of its profitability in terms of the customer relationship and in terms of offering a customer a full solution for the category. And so there aren't any customers that we are just providing private label, it's always in conjunction with a branded program as well. Did I get at your question there?

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Adam Samuelson with Goldman Sachs. Please proceed with your question.

Adam Samuelson

Analyst · Goldman Sachs. Please proceed with your question.

Yes. Thanks. Good morning, everyone. So a question not so much about the quarter but just thinking about the outlook and ramp into 2020 on the flavor solutions side, which, in the last couple of years, has been a really important contributor to the margins and earnings algorithm for the Company. Margins year to date have been basically flat and I'm just trying to think about kind of how drivers of why that margin expansion has slowed down as it has. And I know this quarter the growth, you had some lumpy growth and you had the warehousing expense. So not necessarily this quarter, but thinking about nine months in totality kind of how do we think about that into next year?

Mike Smith

Analyst · Goldman Sachs. Please proceed with your question.

Yes. I think if you kind of step back and think about the progress we've made over the past four, five years, I mean, we've increased, and this is both organic and acquisition based, about 500 basis points in the operating profit line. I mean this year has been a little lumpy. We're up in one quarter, even in another quarter and down in this quarter. Some of the discrete items that happened this quarter really around some really negative FX trends that hit EMEA primarily versus what we were thinking back in June...

Lawrence Kurzius

Analyst · Goldman Sachs. Please proceed with your question.

Probably transactional...

Mike Smith

Analyst · Goldman Sachs. Please proceed with your question.

Which goes through transactional, goes through the cost of goods sold as you reevaluate your balance sheet, so we see those, I mean those are risks that you always have based on world economies and things like that. But we continue to look at taking our portfolio to a higher-margin business. Some of the other things that hit us this year that hopefully will turn next year, you think about APZ where a lot of -- we talked about our flavor solutions business with limited-time offers. I mean with some of the economies in China and APZ, they really shifted away from limited-time offers and we make higher-margin business to more base business which is lower margin. So that was some of the challenges we've had this year that hopefully, as economies and companies realize they need to drive LTOs to drive consumer traffic, will reverse.

Lawrence Kurzius

Analyst · Goldman Sachs. Please proceed with your question.

We continue to believe that, over time, we have significant runway for margin improvement in our flavor solutions segment.

Adam Samuelson

Analyst · Goldman Sachs. Please proceed with your question.

And then just a clarification. Just any way to quantify how much ERP has been year to date? And do we think that, any way to quantify kind of how big a step up, if any, there is into next year from ERP?

Mike Smith

Analyst · Goldman Sachs. Please proceed with your question.

Look, I mean, we'll talk about that more at our earnings, when we give guidance in January. But we have had some ERP expenses, as Lawrence alluded to. Last call, we said mostly second and third quarter. There's been a little bit of a shift out into the fourth quarter from the expense perspective. But we do see 2020, that's where a lot of our big go-lives are going to be, so there will be a significant step up in ERP. But we'll give you more clarity in January.

Adam Samuelson

Analyst · Goldman Sachs. Please proceed with your question.

I appreciate the color. Thanks very much.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes our question-and-answer session. I'll turn the floor back to Mr. Kurzius for any final comments.

Lawrence Kurzius

Analyst

Great. Thanks, everyone, for your questions and for participating in today's call. McCormick is a global leader in flavor, and we're differentiated by the broad and advantaged portfolio, which continues to drive growth. We have a growing and profitable business and operate in an environment that is changing in an ever faster pace. We are responding readily to changes in the industry with new ideas, innovation and purpose. With a relentless focus on growth, performance and people, we continue to perform strong globally and build shareholder value. I'm pleased with the strength of our year-to-date results, and as we enter the last quarter of our fiscal year, I'm confident in our fiscal year outlook and are well positioned to deliver another strong year in 2019.

Kasey Jenkins

Operator

Thank you, Lawrence. And thanks, everyone, for joining today's call and navigating through some of the technical call issues we've had at the beginning. If you have any further questions regarding today's information, please do not hesitate to reach out to me. This concludes this morning's conference call.