Earnings Labs

McCormick & Company, Incorporated (MKC)

Q3 2022 Earnings Call· Thu, Oct 6, 2022

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Transcript

Kasey Jenkins

Management

Good morning. This is Kasey Jenkins, Chief Strategy Officer and Senior Vice President, Investor Relations. Thank you for joining today's Third Quarter Earnings Call. To accompany this call, we posted a set of slides at ir.mccormick.com. With me this morning are Lawrence Kurzius, Chairman and CEO; Brendan Foley, President and COO; and Mike Smith, Executive Vice President and CFO. During this call, we will refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures. The nature of those non-GAAP financial measures and the related reconciliations to the GAAP results are included in this morning's press release and slides. In our comments, certain percentages are rounded. Please refer to our presentation for complete information. Today's presentation contains projections and other forward-looking statements. Actual results could differ materially from those projected. The company undertakes no obligation to update or revise publicly any forward-looking statements, whether because of new information, future events or other factors. Please refer to our forward-looking statements on Slide 2 for more information. I will now turn the discussion over to Lawrence.

Lawrence Kurzius

Management

Good morning, everyone. Thanks for joining us. Third quarter sales increased 3% from the year ago period as anticipated. In constant currency, sales grew 6%, reflecting 10% growth from pricing actions, partially offset by a 1% decline from the Kitchen Basics divestiture and 1% decline attributable to the exits of low-margin business in India and the consumer business in Russia and a 2% decline in all other volume and product mix. Our underlying third quarter growth reflects the strength of our broad global portfolio as well as the effective execution of our strategies and pricing actions against the backdrop of a volatile operating environment. Using 2019 as a pre-pandemic baseline, third quarter sales grew at a constant currency three-year compounded annual growth rate, or CAGR, up 7%, reflecting the sustained momentum in our business across both our Consumer and Flavor Solutions segments. Moving to profit, adjusted operating income was down 12% or 11% in constant currency adjusted earnings per share was down 14%. During the third quarter, supply chain challenges continued and recovery of certain constrained materials is taking longer than expected. We continue to incur elevated costs to meet high demand in our Flavor Solutions segment. While in our Consumer segment, where demand moderated from elevated consumption trends more quickly than expected, we are experiencing lower-than-optimal operating leverage. Across the supply chain, we remain focused on managing inventory levels and eliminating inefficiencies, though the normalization of our supply chain cost is taking longer than expected, pressuring gross margin and profit realization in the current period. Over the coming months, we will be aggressively eliminating supply chain inefficiencies. Importantly, as we had expected in the third quarter, our price increases are catching up with the pace of cost inflation in both segments. We began to recover the cost inflation that…

Mike Smith

Management

Thanks, Lawrence, and good morning, everyone. Starting on Slide 12. Our top line constant currency sales grew 6% compared to the third quarter of last year, including a 1% unfavorable impact from the Kitchen Basics divestiture, as well as a 1% impact from the exits of low-margin business in India, and the consumer business in Russia. In our Consumer segment, we drove constant currency sales growth of 4%, with 10% related to pricing actions, partially offset by a 1% impact from the Kitchen Basics divestiture, as well as lower volume. With the exit of low-margin business in India and the consumer business in Russia contributing a combined 1% impact due to the lower volume. On a three-year basis, our third quarter constant currency sales CAGR was 6%. On Slide 13, consumer sales in the Americas increased 3% in constant currency, driven by pricing actions, partially offset by a decline in volume as well as a 1% impact from the Kitchen Basics divestiture. As Lawrence mentioned, the volume decline was impacted not only by elasticities, but also by constrained supply of certain input materials, primarily packaging items. Over the past three years, constant currency sales in the Americas grew at a CAGR of 6%. In EMEA, constant currency consumer sales declined 1%, which included a 3% unfavorable impact from lower sales in Russia. Growth in other markets were driven by pricing actions, partially offset by lower volume, with the most significant volume impact attributable to lower sales of Vahine Hommade dessert products. Over the past three years, EMEA's constant currency sales grew at a 3% CAGR. Constant currency consumer sales in the Asia Pacific region grew 10%, including a 7% unfavorable impact from the exit of low-margin business in India. As Lawrence mentioned, growth was driven by higher volume, mainly attributable…

Lawrence Kurzius

Management

Thank you, Mike. Now that Mike has shared our financial results and outlook in more detail, I'd like to recap the key takeaways as seen on Slide 26. Our third quarter sales performance reflects the strength of our broad global portfolio and the effective execution of our strategies against the backdrop of a volatile operating environment. Our sales growth momentum is strong. Though challenges in our supply chain have taken longer to normalize, we have now passed an inflection point. We have begun to recover the cost inflation that has been outpacing our pricing actions while executing on a plan to aggressively eliminate supply chain costs, and we expect 2022 fourth operating margin expansion and continued improvement into 2023. Our long-term performance, including through periods of volatility and has been industry-leading and long-term fundamentals that drove this historical performance remains strong. We have a proven track record of execution and are confident we will successfully navigate this dynamic environment for our future sustainable growth and build long-term value for our shareholders. Now let's turn to your questions.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Thank you. Our first question is from the line of Ken Goldman with JPMorgan. Please proceed with your question.

Ken Goldman

Analyst

Hi. Thanks so much.

Lawrence Kurzius

Management

Hi. Good morning Ken.

Ken Goldman

Analyst

Hi. Good morning. You highlighted that you've past the inflection point, right, where your pricing is now ahead of your costs. And this, of course, is natural, right, given the timing and not unexpected. But one of the push-backs we hear in the industry is that larger retail customers, as they start to, I guess, maybe notice these margin trends, they'll start to ask for a bigger piece of the profit pie. So I guess my question is to what extent do you expect sort of these gross margin net tailwinds to be sustainable? Or is it reasonable to expect maybe some pressure from customers as they see their vendors' margins starting to get better?

Lawrence Kurzius

Management

Well, I think that there's always some tension when you're talking about pricing and margins with customers. And so I don't want to get into anything with any one specific customer. But right now, all of our customers recognize that inflation is ongoing, and we continue to have, I'd say, productive pricing discussions with our customers. We just did take another round that is effective here at fourth quarter. And we're really not seeing that kind of push back right now.

Mike Smith

Management

I think the reality, Ken, is we're still recovering. Our pace of pricing has caught up now with cost and we say, we'll recover dollar to dollar in 2023. But there is a trend that is going in the right direction. And obviously, as we look at 2023, we look at what's the cost environment, things like that, we need to go again next year, but that's still -

Lawrence Kurzius

Management

And I think particularly on the Flavor Solutions side of the business, we have - we still have more work to do.

Ken Goldman

Analyst

Got it. Thank you. And then for my follow-up, you're guiding to at least $100 million of incremental cost savings. It's not a small number. So I just wanted to get a little bit of clarification. How much of that is incremental to ongoing CCI? And how much of that is derived from maybe a normalization of certain factors such as inventories versus what you would consider more, I guess, discrete savings beyond that?

Lawrence Kurzius

Management

Well, first of all, all of this is incremental to our normal CCI program are using the processes and the organization Alpha Drives or CCI program to actually execute on these. This is incremental savings that we are and although some of the - you know I would characterize as a one-time take out the - it goes straight to run rate. These are incremental costs that we have incurred due to extensive search capacity, some of the things we talked about in our prepared remarks. So overtime, temporary labor and efficient shift, excessive use of CO-packers, a lot of premium transportation charges, we do expect to get that out of our system, get back to our pre-pandemic operating standards. And we would expect - while this is a one-time takeout, it goes straight to run rate.

Ken Goldman

Analyst

Understood. Thanks so much. Yes, very clear.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is from the line of Robert Moskow with Credit Suisse. Please proceed with your question.

Robert Moskow

Analyst

Hi. Thanks. So Flavor Solutions is really the division that has stumbled the most. I mean, when I look at profit this year compared to like pre-pandemic, it's well below your pre-pandemic levels. So can I assume that most of the $100 million in savings is - or recovery is going to happen there? And then my second question is, I remember years and years ago that the Flavor Solutions had problems because it was trying to do too many things for too many customers. It had spread itself too thin. It needed eventually to have a rationalization of its customer base. And I wanted to make sure that that's not possibly one of the root causes today. You've grown your sales a lot. Do you feel like the organization is capable of still getting back to like 12% operating margin across all of those customers?

Lawrence Kurzius

Management

Yes. I think that stumble is the wrong way to characterize it. I think that we're a bit of a victim of our own success. We've won a lot of new business, and we prioritized keeping our customers in stock and supplying them. And that has put a lot of pressure on our supply chain in a few areas and we've got projects underway to address kind of a normalization of production and through capacity additions. Some of these wins are substantial, and we've had real brick-and-mortar projects that take a couple of years to put into place that are coming online right now and that are going to get at a lot of the extraordinary costs. There's some parts of our business, the 24/7 shifts that we've gotten out of most of our business, we're still doing that in a lot of our that's why I wouldn't say a lot in parts of our Flavor Solutions business, and that is a less efficient ship pattern even though it does get you some capacity to be an example of expensive surge capacity. But we've got new seasonings capacity coming online in the Americas, some of it now, so some of it in the first - early part of 2023. We're starting up a new flavor solutions plant in the U.K. We've got expanded distribution that that's shipping really starting to ship right now. And so I think that we've got a lot going for us in Flavor Solutions to support that strong growth in a more efficient way. As a margin issue on Flavor Solutions, partly is just the way our contractual arrangements work with our customers, there is a pass-through mechanism for the major raw materials that go into their products. There's a lag to it. In times when inflation was 1%, 2%, 3%, that lag really wasn't important. But this year, where it's been double-digit, it has been important. And we are going to catch that up.

Mike Smith

Management

I think remember, we've talked about this before, over half of the dilution this year is due to the cost versus pricing. So that's just the math that we'll get back over time. Also, these projects, Lawrence mentioned, there's a lot of double running costs as we bring those big projects up like U.K., Peterborough that eventually will go away. So that will help the margins, too. To your point, though, about - are we spread too thin? I actually have to flavor division back in 2005 when that was identified, there's no comparison to today. It's really focus and Lawrence, why don’t you…

Lawrence Kurzius

Management

I was just going to say, Mike, one thing I would add there, Rob, is the composition and the profile of our business is so different to 2005. And this - our strategy to keep driving and evolving the business towards that higher value-added portfolio is what you're seeing in our business portfolio today. And so there's a very different, I think, set of conditions compared to the point you referenced. And we have done a lot of portfolio pruning behind the scenes as we - especially as we went through these last three years, where the extraordinary growth that we have in the parts of the business that we're focused on more than made up for parts of the business where we were getting out of low-margin high-touch businesses. And I think it's been a self-reinforcing strategy. The migration of our business more and more towards the value-added, technically insulated and flavor end of the spectrum has made our product wins stickier and our R&D teams more able to work on new business not focused on constantly re-winning bid business.

Robert Moskow

Analyst

Great. I'm sorry to bring up 2005, but we're all old and we all remember it. So maybe just one follow-up. Of the $70 million or so of profit decline this year in Flavor Solutions, can you quantify how much of that is just pricing catch-up?

Mike Smith

Management

I would say - I wouldn't - I think the bigger bucket is actually some of the excess costs that we've talked about, and which actually would have driven more sales if we could have supplied it. But the excess cost that we - for the reason we called down our preannouncement was we haven't been able to get those out of the system yet. Yeah, pricing is a bit behind, I mean, the thing that gives us the comfort that we're going to recover more margin Flavor Solutions is because we've seen it in Consumer. The Consumer is turning positive from a gross margin and an operating profit perspective as pricing wave comes through, and you'll see the same in Flavor Solutions. But I don't have the exact number for you.

Robert Moskow

Analyst

Okay. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is from the line of Steve Powers with Deutsche Bank. Please proceed with your question.

Steve Powers

Analyst

Yes. Thank you and good morning.

Lawrence Kurzius

Management

Good morning.

Mike Smith

Management

Good morning.

Steve Powers

Analyst

Picking up on that last thread on the pricing catch up in Flavor Solutions, can you talk a little bit about the expected timing of that and cadence of that? Because it seems like most of it or a good portion of it should be, I think, foreseeable just based on the timing of the contracted adjustments in pricing and contract renewals and that kind of thing. So is it a - should we be expecting a relatively smooth catch-up from here? Or is it - is there a reason to believe that you can - that the catch-up happens on a more accelerated timing.

Lawrence Kurzius

Management

I'd rather describe it more in terms of our gross margin trajectory than to talk about pricing too specifically because I'm worried that it's going to get into things that might have set our customers. But you can see the margin trajectory on this business beginning to turn. We talked about an inflection point. Flavor Solutions margins have been ticking down through the second quarter of the year. They're turning - the year-on-year comparison has narrowed in the third quarter and we expect it to continue to narrow and begin a recovery as we go through next year.

Mike Smith

Management

Yes. I think from a dollar perspective, like I said before, for both Consumer and Flavor Solutions business, we will catch up on the cost next year. We just took branded foodservice, that's supported labor solutions along with our consumer business at the beginning of the quarter, that will be a positive going into next year rapidly. So yes, there's no like one thing bag you catch up. It's over time, but in 2023, we will catch up.

Steve Powers

Analyst

Okay. Okay. And on the manufacturing start-up costs are those - I guess, what inning are we in there? And how much of that remains versus is in the rearview?

Lawrence Kurzius

Management

I would say - I mean, from a - you're always going to have some of these programs to say that. So, you're always going to have some of this, I think this year is kind of a high watermark that we should get some get in next year. But some of these programs take a bit of time to get fully, fully done. These are big programs. I mean the project we just shipped our first panel that’s marked down out of our big Northeast distribution center, but we want to move over time into 2023. We'll be moving parts of our business into that. So, there'll be a bit of inefficiency there. But...

Mike Smith

Management

And I want to just emphasize that the things that we talked about on the call in terms of getting out the - on our prepared remarks in terms of getting at the cost for example. So, I don't want to overly focus on any one particular thing and give it too much weight. We were sharing examples and when we next report in January, we'll be able to give some progress updates on those exact examples as well as for other actions.

Steve Powers

Analyst

Okay. Thank you. If I could, just one little housekeeping, sorry if I missed it but - just was there anything notable that caused - that resulted in reported EBIT this quarter coming in above what you had preannounced at quarter close, just anything as you close the books that was...

Lawrence Kurzius

Management

Like I said, we've preannounced, we haven't closed our books yet. So these are all estimates and we felt pretty good where we landed. There was a couple of things. Tax came in a little bit more favorable at about penny, some other SG&A things came in a little bit more favorable, but nothing material…

Steve Powers

Analyst

No wonder.

Lawrence Kurzius

Management

And right where we thought.

Mike Smith

Management

Yes. I mean when we preannounced it was say -

Lawrence Kurzius

Management

We had a little bit more visibility on the sales versus profit and between Q3 and Q4, there's a little shift.

Steve Powers

Analyst

Yes, okay. Thanks so much.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question is from the line of Chris Growe with Stifel. Please proceed with your question.

Chris Growe

Analyst

Thank you. good morning.

Lawrence Kurzius

Management

Hi, good morning, Chris. How are you?

Chris Growe

Analyst

No worries. No, thank you for accommodating my question. I appreciate it. I just wanted to get a couple of, I guess, follow-up questions. I just want to be sure on that lag in pricing in Flavor Solutions. When we talked some of the pass along features of that business, that had typically been like a one quarter lag, is that still the case? Or have you caught up now when you talk about pricing being over inflation at is, have you caught up with that? And I guess, I just want to also understand, was that a factor weighing on profit in the quarter? Or was it more just the supply chain challenges?

Lawrence Kurzius

Management

Well, of course, it was a factor weighing on profit in the quarter end and has been all year. Again, every customer has got to sell different contractual arrangements. I think about a quarter lag is a good way to think about it. But remember, costs keep coming in. I mean we didn't just get cost inflation on January 1 and price for it. These costs have been steadily increasing all year, and in fact, continue to increase. The inflationary outlook has not settled. So there's been a bit of a - we've gotten - we've passed costs there, but there's been a bit of chasing it as new as costs have continued to go up. I'm going to let Brendan comment on this a little further.

Brendan Foley

Analyst

Well, it's true. I think just the thing I would key in on is there is unlike, let's say, our consumer and our Flavors - our branded foodservice business, there's not sort of one moment in time where that pricing is, therefore, effective in the business. And so that's another way to maybe think about it, Chris. And I think just to build on part of your question, certainly, supply chain, as we've been talking about quite a bit in the prepared remarks, we're certainly an influence on how we're looking at that.

Chris Growe

Analyst

Okay. Thank you for that. And then just to understand if I'm hearing it properly, but like the pricing should accelerate in the fourth quarter, it sounds like there will be, again, some continued catch-up in pricing, I guess that's true for Flavor Solutions. I think about Consumer, is that one where we should expect incremental pricing based on what you've announced so far, not asking for anything new there. But I also want to understand maybe how you're utilizing promotional spending there as a means of trying to trying to attack those price gap issues in some areas of the business there?

Lawrence Kurzius

Management

I think you've got - I'm going to try and unpack that in pieces. We have been guiding all year. And it - and you can see it coming through now and not just in our reported numbers, but also through the scanner. But we would have more pricing in effect in the second half of the year, especially going into the fourth quarter than we have - than we did in the early part of the year. We've - in the Americas this year, taken a number of rounds of pricing that included the most recent one being here right at the beginning of the fourth quarter. And so there is more pricing in effect now about our consumer business primarily there. And so you can see that coming through now. And really, other than the contractual windows that we were just talking about in Flavor Solutions, we largely have our actions for this year in place and we're looking ahead to 2023 now. I think that in Asia, we've got one more round that goes into effect actually this month. But really, our 2022 actions are away. And I gave such a long answer to that, but I forgot the second part of your question, but I'm going to let Brendan answer it.

Brendan Foley

Analyst

So I think where you were going was just looking for some context around promotional spending. And I think the context we would provide is as we go into the holiday, we feel really good about our supply. We have a strong program planned for the holiday season as we would every year. But it certainly feels, I think, a little bit more robust now compared to, let's say, 2021 and 2020 just because we're in a better situation from the standpoint of the overall context in the market. So, we are turning back on promotions where we feel really confident about supply, and we're looking at the holiday season that way. Those choices are not necessarily connected to any pricing decisions we're making in the market, but really to support of the business. And helping to drive the category for our retailers.

Lawrence Kurzius

Management

Yes. And I would say that our supply situation on the consumer business going to holiday is the best it's been in the last several years.

Chris Growe

Analyst

That’s great. Thanks for all that context. I appreciate it.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Andrew Lazar with Barclays. Please proceed with your question.

Andrew Lazar

Analyst · Barclays. Please proceed with your question.

Great. Good morning everybody.

Mike Smith

Management

Hi.

Lawrence Kurzius

Management

Good morning, Andrew.

Andrew Lazar

Analyst · Barclays. Please proceed with your question.

Maybe to start off, I think when you had preannounced results for the quarter, one of the factors that you had highlighted in the Consumer business was that sort of private label price points at some retailers on shelf had not yet really sort of moved upward leading to some price gaps that get wider maybe than you'd like or had been anticipated. And if I missed this, I apologize. I didn't know if that you've seen any movement there yet or have heard of any movement that's likely to happen on that front.

Lawrence Kurzius

Management

Right. Andrew, no one has asked that yet. So I'm glad that you did not only a very short time since we preannounced. And so we don't have a lot of new information on consumer behavior or on retailer behavior. I'll let Brendan give some color on that, and then I'll take it back.

Brendan Foley

Analyst · Barclays. Please proceed with your question.

Yes, I think, Andrew, things are largely consistent with what we had discussed or shared broadly within the last four weeks. So, we haven't really seen a lot of new information or data. They seem this price gap seem to be kind of holding in the very same range that we talked about before. And - but we still are a leading supplier of private label into the category and we're passing those price increases along to customers just as we have on branded products and that's a retailer-by-retailer decision, I think, on what gets realized itself. But in the meanwhile, we're still driving a lot of that value programming that we had talked about whether it's not only our messaging, but also we're seeing a lot of lift in some of those parts of our portfolio that tend to drive more value. We offer - our offerings are really across the spectrum that would meet consumers' needs. And we're seeing growth on the premium end, we're seeing growth on the value end. In parts of our business like Gourmet Garden, which tend to be on the premium end, are actually doing really well in this context. And then we see our value sizes like super deal performing very strongly, also off shelf and in the market. And then we're introducing more value into the market through this opening price point worries program. And we're also doing that in other parts of our - in other markets around the world where we're - and many of them were launching re-sealable pouches that are larger than usual and allow consumers to kind of realize more value that way. But that's probably the added context I would share since the last month.

Lawrence Kurzius

Management

Yes. And Andrew, it isn't exactly what you've asked, but it gives - give me a chance to talk about this a little bit. I want to emphasize that we have in our offering items for every price point and every retailer strategy and category from the premium end all the way down to opening price points and private label. And we spent a fair bit of time talking about the consumer that's under pressure and rightly so, we are concerned about pressure on the consumer, especially, the consumers on the lower half of the income spectrum. And we want to make sure that our products are accessible and approachable, but gourmet and premium end of our business is still very strong. And sometimes those price gaps can be exaggerated. And Brendan mentioned large size and super deal. The Nielsen data is a pretty blunt instrument when it reports unit price. It doesn't catch the fact that some of these value packs are really big and carry a high price point. If you adjust that out, the lower size packs that are growing strongly for us and that price gap actually narrows quite a bit.

Andrew Lazar

Analyst · Barclays. Please proceed with your question.

That's very helpful perspective. And then I know we're running short on time. Just a quick one. Obviously, we're not at a point where you're going to get too specific at all about next year, of course. But with, sort of, the inflection that's starting to happen in pricing, the new cost saves and over - margin recovery actions that you've kind of highlighted today, I guess, consensus already has McCormick, sort of, getting back to what we'll call more of an on-algorithm type of earnings growth next year, particularly as you would deem, I think, a bunch of the things you talked about impacting this year is somewhat more transitory as you improve them going forward. So I didn't know if there were even just any broad comments around that, whether there's a need, you think, to lean in right on the marketing side going into next year, just given whatever the value orientation of the consumer or some of the new product innovations you've got planned? Or just things larger puts and takes that we should sort of think about as given how, I guess, the Street has already started to sort of lock in expectations for next year? Thanks so much.

Lawrence Kurzius

Management

So I will start with the caveat that we're not going to give any guidance for 2023. Right now, I've got - everyone is standing around here with - holding their breath - if I'm going to say something rash about that. But - so it is a bit early for that. And I appreciate saying confidence in the investment community that's reflected in those consensus outlook. But there are some big puts and takes. I'm going to let Mike talk about those.

Mike Smith

Management

Yes. Obviously, a big wild part for next year is the inflation environment. So we're in the process now actually rolling up budgets and things like that, taking a look that drives pricing actions. Obviously, some of the other puts and takes you think about interest expense. Obviously, some of the actions we took this year might be a negative for next year. This cost pro we talked about, which we're going to give you a lot more detail in January. So I'd say, right now, there's so many big moving parts, it would be hard even to give you any guidance about.

Lawrence Kurzius

Management

And frankly, incentive comp has to be rebuilt.

Mike Smith

Management

Right.

Andrew Lazar

Analyst · Barclays. Please proceed with your question.

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is from the line of Adam Samuelson with Goldman Sachs. Please proceed with your question.

Adam Samuelson

Analyst

Yes. Thanks. Good morning. So a lot of ground has been covered. I wanted to just come back to Flavor Solutions quickly and just the way you'd characterize, kind of, the business performance on the strong demand. And I guess I'm trying to - volume mix in the quarter was up 80 basis points. And so I'm just trying to get a little bit more color on kind of the pieces within the Flavor Solutions business because it's not really one business. It's a collection of a bunch of them. It would seem from the way you characterized some areas of strength that maybe some of the higher-value flavor businesses were at or below kind of segment average growth? And just, A, is that the right calibration? And B, just any color on the growth of the - some of the different pieces?

Lawrence Kurzius

Management

You know, certainly the pick of the part of it that was weak. We had strong performance on Flavor Solutions in that segment across the globe and really all segments. I'm sorry, I'll that's not to say all regions and all of the pieces of it. Well, maybe a little bit out maybe we did talk about a month ago. I mean some of the challenges on Flavor Solutions this year were cost related to plaque constraints. We could have sold more. We could have had higher volumes than you noted. So, I think from that perspective, some of the actions we've talked about it more capacity will help. But the demand is very strong and is very strong.

Adam Samuelson

Analyst

Okay. All right. I just - I guess, relative to historical performance of that business, the 80 basis points of volume mix growth. And I know there's noisiness in the comps with COVID recovery and it's a lumpy business that doesn't always - usually that business could be stronger than 80 basis points of volume mix. So I'm trying to get the calibration of that.

Lawrence Kurzius

Management

Yes. We had enormous price [indiscernible] 10% pricing, we feel pretty good about.

Adam Samuelson

Analyst

Okay. And then just quickly on SG&A, and you alluded to in - think about '23 a little bit. But it would seem like the way the gross margin and EBIT guidance lays out implied for the fourth quarter that total SG&A is going to be down high single digits. A, is that kind of the right calibration? And within that, just how much is incentive comp resetting lower talk about kind of the declines in SG&A dollars that you've seen this year?

Mike Smith

Management

Yes. I mean, SG&A, you're right, it's going to be down in the quarter, and it's primarily driven by the incentive comp. We're also getting higher fixed cost leverage, too, as you think about it, but - yes.

Adam Samuelson

Analyst

So is most of that decline in incentive comp as we think about the headwind that would be rolling into next year?

Mike Smith

Management

I mean we adjust incentive comp every quarter, so I wouldn't take one quarter to then try to extrapolate the next year.

Adam Samuelson

Analyst

Okay. All right. I appreciate the color. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our final question is from the line of Peter Galbo with Bank of America. Please proceed with your question.

Peter Galbo

Analyst

Hi guys. Good morning. Just two really quick ones for me. Maybe just to pick up on Adam's question there. Mike, I just wanted to clarify, the operating margin comment for the fourth quarter of operating margin expansion, that was a year-over-year comment in the fourth quarter, not a sequential?

Lawrence Kurzius

Management

I think both.

Peter Galbo

Analyst

Both. Okay. That's helpful. And then just a broader question on the - just thinking about the cost savings for next year. I know we spent a lot of time talking about that. But just as we think about like repatriating production, surge capacity coming down, normalizing inventory levels. Like is there a way to quantify, I would imagine the there's probably a volume impact that comes with that. You'll get the benefit on the cost side, but maybe there's an offset a little bit, at least on topline on volume. Is there any way to quantify that at this point?

Lawrence Kurzius

Management

No, I don't think that's what we're saying at all. And I think we've quantified the cost benefit, but I don't think that there's an impact on volume at all. I mean this is a normalization and that we went through this year. And I don't think that has an impact. Now of course, we kind of don't want to get into 2023 guidance. But whatever - that would all be reflected in whatever guidance we give for next year. And I do want to emphasize that we've spent a lot of time talking about supply chain in our remarks and on the Q&A here. But you know, I do want to be clear that what's the most important thing I'm glad you really brought this point up about volume, is that the continued growing demand for flavor and the strong growth of our business that we're fueling with executing on our strategies, and with our passionate and engaged employees is the most important thing. Inflation is a reality and our pricing has caught up with it, we're seeing that coming through in the margin sale, you can see it, you know, see us keep caught up and take the actions that are necessary. And then comes supply chain, that's really kind of the third most important thing, which is to eliminate the excessive costs and inefficiencies that have crept into the supply chain. So I do want to keep that in perspective, that growth is still at the top of the heap.

Peter Galbo

Analyst

Fair enough. Thanks very much guys.

Lawrence Kurzius

Management

Thanks.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. At this time, I'll turn the floor over to management for closing remarks.

Lawrence Kurzius

Management

Great, thank you. McCormick's alignment with consumer trends and the rising demand for flavor in combination with the presence and reach for global portfolio and our strategic investments, provide a strong foundation for sustainable growth. We're disciplined in our focus on the right opportunities and investing in our business. We're continuing to drive further growth as we successfully execute on our long term strategies actively respond to changing consumer behavior and capitalize on opportunities from a relative strength. We continue to be well positioned for continued success and remain committed to driving long term value for our shareholders.

Kasey Jenkins

Management

Thank you, Lawrence. And thanks to everybody for joining today's call. If you have any further questions on today's information, please feel free to contact me. And this concludes this morning's call. Thank you, again.