Earnings Labs

Markel Corporation (MKL)

Q2 2016 Earnings Call· Wed, Aug 3, 2016

$1,903.71

+0.42%

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning and welcome to the Markel Corporation Second Quarter 2016 Conference Call. All participants will be in listen-only mode. During the call today we may make forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. They are based on current assumptions and opinions concerning a variety of known and unknown risks. Actual results may differ materially from those contained in or suggested by such forward-looking statements. Additional information about factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those projected in the forward-looking statements is included under the Risk Factors and Safe Harbor and Cautionary Statement in our most recent annual report on Form 10-K and quarterly report on Form 10-Q. We may also discuss certain non-GAAP financial measures in the call today. You may find a reconciliation to GAAP of these measures in the Form 10-Q which can be found on our website at www.markelcorp.com in the Investor Information section. Please note this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Tom Gayner, Co-Chief Executive Officer. Please go ahead.

Thomas S. Gayner - Co-Chief Executive Officer

Management

Thank you, Priyanka. Good morning and welcome to the 2016 second quarter conference call for the Markel Corporation. We've got some good short-term news from the first half of 2016 to report to you this morning, and that's always fun. More importantly though, this call was a check-in and an update on the long-term story of building the Markel Corporation. Building one of the world's great companies is what motivates us and we're excited to share with you the details of how that's going. The most important thing to me is that this is not a story of one person or three people or 300 people. Today there are roughly 10,000 Markel associates around the world who go to work every day trying to serve customers, and in so doing, build the value of the Markel Corporation. All around the world and in all of our diverse pursuits we're guided by a common culture, which we attempt to describe in the words, the Markel style. Our 10,000 associates work in the disciplines of insurance, investments, industrial products, real estate, healthcare, information technology and consulting, among others. They follow time tested methods to produce good results. At the same time, all of us continue to adapt to new goals and opportunities as demanded by a rapidly changing world. In so doing, the 10,000 people of Markel build and run three distinct cash producing engines of insurance, investments and Markel ventures. This diverse set of driver propels us forward. In the first half of 2016, all three engines provided forward thrust. The good news is that we can fly the plane on just one engine and we can even glide for a while, if we have to. That said, we can fly faster and further with three positive forces than zero and…

F. Michael Crowley - President

Management

Thanks, Anne. Good morning everyone. As we described in previous calls, the U.S. Insurance segment comprises all direct business written on our U.S. Insurance companies and includes all of the underwriting results of our wholesale, specialty and global divisions. Gross written premiums for the U.S. Insurance segment were up 3% for the quarter, and 7% for the year compared to the same periods in 2015. For both the quarter and the year, this increase was driven by continued growth in personal lines, primarily our Hagerty classic car program and by workers compensation within our specialty division. We also saw increases in our general liability lines within the global insurance and wholesale divisions. Within wholesale, this growth came from both our brokerage and binding distribution channels. That was due in part to increased traffic through Markel online. As discussed last quarter, part of the increase on a year-to-date basis is due to an additional week of premium in the first quarter of 2016, compared to the same period a year ago. The combined ratio for the second quarter of 2016 was 94 compared to a 93 for the same period a year ago, and on a year-to-date basis, the combined ratio was 91 compared to 89 in 2015. The slight increase in the combined ratio for both periods of 2016 was primarily driven by less favorable development of prior accident year loss reserves. While we continue to see favorable development on our general liability, property, and workers compensation product lines, we have seen adverse development on our medical malpractice and specified medical product lines. Our product line leaders, underwriters and actuaries have taken a hard look at these books and corrective actions are in place. The current accident year ratio was flat for the quarter and down one point for the…

Richard R. Whitt, III - Co-Chief Executive Officer

Management

Thanks, Mike. Good morning, everybody. Today, I'll focus my comments on the underwriting results for the year, for both International and the Reinsurance segments. First, let's start with the International insurance segment, which includes business written by our Markel International division as well as certain products written by the Global Insurance division. Gross written premiums were down 6% for the quarter and 3% for the year. We continue to experience tough market conditions in both divisions, and Mike referred to some of that. Declines in premiums in the quarter were most notable in the marine, energy and property book in London, where we continue to see overcapacity, lower oil prices and lower commodity prices in general and pricing pressures in the energy sector along with challenging soft market conditions in property. Additionally, part of the decline was driven by the continued strength of the U.S. dollar. The second quarter combined ratio was 101% compared to 98% for the same period a year ago. The year-to-date combined ratio was 98% compared to 86% in 2015. Prior accident year losses were flat for the quarter, but unfavorable by 12 points for the year driven by lower redundancies in 2016, most notably in our Marine and Energy lines. As Anne mentioned this segment also saw a benefit in the first quarter of 2015 related to the decrease in estimated volatility of our net reserves, which contributed $17 million or 4 points of favorable development last year. The increase in the segment combined ratio for both the quarter and the year was partially driven by a higher expense ratio, which is mainly due to the write-off in the second quarter of previously capitalized software development costs. Finally, these unfavorable movements were partially offset by a decrease in our current accident year loss ratio of…

Thomas S. Gayner - Co-Chief Executive Officer

Management

Thanks Richie. As I stated at the beginning there are three main engines at Markel that build financial value: our insurance operations, our investment activities, and Markel Ventures. Fortunately and pleasantly, all three engines powered positive results during the first half of 2016. Anne gave you the overall numbers and Mike and Richie described our insurance operations. On the investment side of house we earned 5.3% on our equity investments and 4.7% on our fixed income holdings with the total return from the portfolio of 4.9%. Foreign currency effects were neutral. At June 30 equities represented 52% of our shareholders equity compared to 51% at yearend. We continue to invest in a methodical fashion and expect to increase that percentage over time. The absolute amount of equities increased roughly $300 million from depreciation and net purchases during the first six months. Our fixed income portfolio appreciated due to lower interest rate and low credit losses, such that the ratio of equities to capital only went up by 1% during the first half of 2016. Overtime, we continue to expect to increase the overall equity weighting as we find investable ideas and continue to produce cash from our insurance, investing and Markel Ventures activities. In our fixed income operations, we earned a bit more than the coupon, as interest rates continued to move lower. I commented in previous quarters that you needed an electron microscope to see the current level of interest rates. Now, even an electron microscope can't spot them. Now you need a theory (26:17). We wandered further into the realm of theory in the world of interest rates so far this year. There are no practical long-term historical precedence to study and use as guides for what comes next. As such, our number one objective is to remain…

Operator

Operator

We will now begin the question-and-answer session. The first question comes from Mark Hughes with SunTrust. Please go ahead.

Mark Douglas Hughes - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc.

Analyst

Hi. Thank you very much. You talked about the higher claims frequency in med mal. Was that a shift in underwriting focus, you might have undertaken a couple of years ago or were are you seeing a change in frequency with clients you had for some period of time? Anne G. Waleski - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: The book – the development in the book has really been specific to particular clientele or elements of that book. So it isn't really a change in our underwriting as much as it has been a change in the underlying risk profile, something we've written for a while.

Mark Douglas Hughes - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc.

Analyst

Right. So, increased frequency on kind of the existing book of business is how you would size it? Anne G. Waleski - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: That's right.

F. Michael Crowley - President

Management

Yeah.

Thomas S. Gayner - Co-Chief Executive Officer

Management

And we've taken our underwriting expertise and taken actions to correct that book. So we are moving forward with those actions.

Mark Douglas Hughes - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc.

Analyst

And then workers' compensation seems like you are getting good growth, good favorable development, some discussion of increased competition there. How do you view that now that still you think going to be a growth line for you?

Thomas S. Gayner - Co-Chief Executive Officer

Management

Well that team has executed, going back several years, extremely well on our workers' compensation book as we bought FirstComp. And what we are seeing is that the different geographic approach we've taken to the workers' compensation book, the quality of our sales force out there that's beating the bushes every day, we actually have a number of them in Richmond today. And the underwriting philosophy where we are reclassifying the accounts have all played into the plan that Matt Parker and Chet Riccuci (31:05) executed to grow that business. So we don't see or foresee any significant change going forward in the near future.

Mark Douglas Hughes - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc.

Analyst

And then the Markel Ventures or the other revenue lines, you've had some meaningful seasonality, the step up in Q3. It is that – any reason to think that seasonality is going to change as we go forward?

F. Michael Crowley - President

Management

Well you are making a prediction about Q3 that we would love to see play out actually. But no, just kidding. Q2, we have cyclical businesses especially in the transportation side. So that business is still pretty good. That really isn't seasonal in nature. It's the function of the economic cycle and so far so good.

Mark Douglas Hughes - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc.

Analyst

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

The next question comes from Mark Dwelle with RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Mark Dwelle - RBC Capital Markets LLC

Analyst · RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Yeah, good morning. Just a couple of questions. Richie you had talked about some software write-off costs in the international segment. I was just hoping you could quantify that a little bit, either in terms of number of combined ratio points or absolute dollars?

Richard R. Whitt, III - Co-Chief Executive Officer

Management

Mark, it was about $8 million and what it related to is it was some initiatives we were undertaking for our retail business in some of our European – our European branch offices. Some of that will probably still be useful to us but the prudent thing to do was to write-off the $8 million of that software.

Mark Dwelle - RBC Capital Markets LLC

Analyst · RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Okay. No, that's helpful. I know you guys normally are pretty proactive on taking those charges when necessary. Also, I guess this is in the reinsurance division, you mentioned in the Q about some mortgage insurance transactions. Are these GSE transactions or was something different? Just kind of curious on that?

Thomas S. Gayner - Co-Chief Executive Officer

Management

Yes, we are not doing the GSEs; we are doing the private mortgage companies. We're not as – we just don't think the GSE business is as attractive. Obviously those companies went through a tough time during the financial turmoil and they're trying to rebuild their capital base. Part of their plan has been an element of reinsurance. Just about each one of them has added reinsurance as an element of trying to rebuild their capital bases. And we've seen that as an attractive opportunity.

Mark Dwelle - RBC Capital Markets LLC

Analyst · RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Okay. And I guess lastly just building on one of questions just asked on the workers comp, do you do much business in Florida related to workers comp?

Thomas S. Gayner - Co-Chief Executive Officer

Management

We do some. Yes. We even got people headquartered in Florida that is domiciled down there. Yes, we do.

Mark Dwelle - RBC Capital Markets LLC

Analyst · RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Okay.

Thomas S. Gayner - Co-Chief Executive Officer

Management

It's not a humongous percentage of our book, but it's – but we do, do business in Florida.

Mark Dwelle - RBC Capital Markets LLC

Analyst · RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Yes, we've heard kind of conflicting reports about what the impact of some of the recent judicial rulings are there and I was just curious if that was an exposure that you had at this point or maybe something you are just investing in -?

Thomas S. Gayner - Co-Chief Executive Officer

Management

Well I think we're writing – I'd have to go back and check, but I think we're writing in 34 states or 38 states now. So I think you can look at it from that perspective.

Mark Dwelle - RBC Capital Markets LLC

Analyst · RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Okay. Thanks. That's all my questions.

Operator

Operator

The next question is from Jeff Schmitt with William Blair. Please go ahead. Jeff Schmitt - William Blair & Co. LLC: Hi, good morning, everyone.

Thomas S. Gayner - Co-Chief Executive Officer

Management

Good morning. Jeff Schmitt - William Blair & Co. LLC: Question regarding Markel Ventures and just looking at the margins there, and I know last year there was that contingent liability adjustment for Cottrell. But even after adjusting it looks like EBITDA margins, net profit margins are up quite a bit there. Is that seasonality or is that a shift in mix from deals? I mean is Cottrell driving a higher margin or what's going on there?

Thomas S. Gayner - Co-Chief Executive Officer

Management

It's not seasonality; it's really economic cyclicality and Cottrell as well as some other cyclical businesses, when business is good, the incremental profitability of units once you've crossed over breakeven, is very good. So when the economy is strong and the order books are good, there is a profitable business and that's what you're seeing right now. And I wouldn't kid you, when economic cycles are tough, those businesses will struggle to produce profitability. There's a long history of that, but long-term, when we think about Markel and when we think about five-year time horizons over the course of five years when you have good economic conditions and tough economic conditions, they produce very attractive returns on capital. And that's what matters to us. Jeff Schmitt - William Blair & Co. LLC: Okay. And on share buybacks, it looks like 15 million shares around there were bought back during the quarter. Looking back over the past couple of years, it seems like you've had a preference to be buying when the stock is trading at below 1.5 times book. It's moved above that. Is there – am I thinking about that right, or is there change in philosophy there at all?

Thomas S. Gayner - Co-Chief Executive Officer

Management

Well, first, let me correct the number. 15 million shares would leave us with negative shares out there. That would be a happy surprise, but I can... Jeff Schmitt - William Blair & Co. LLC: Right, right, right.

Thomas S. Gayner - Co-Chief Executive Officer

Management

Share repurchasing has been relatively modest here over the years. Our preference is you know, in rank order, if we can fund organic growth from our insurance or our Markel Ventures operations that the first thing we use capital for. Secondly, we look at publicly traded securities, both in debt and equity. Third, we look at acquisition opportunities, and then only if we don't have places to productively deploy capital on those things and the stock is attractively priced will we buyback stock. And we will be in a position sometimes to rebuild dry powder in order to have cash around when some of those other alternatives come up. So we've been modest share repurchasers over the years. I think that will continue to be the case as long as we find good productive ways to use capital.

F. Michael Crowley - President

Management

Yeah. I might just add to that. If you went back and look at our share repurchases over the past two years, you'd probably see us purchase a little bit every second quarter. One of things we like to do as part of our long-term incentive packages for our senior leaders is restricted stock and as soon as we know what that number is we usually go out and buyback a roughly equivalent number of shares because we don't want to dilute the share count. Jeff Schmitt - William Blair & Co. LLC: Got it. Got it. Okay. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

We have no further questions at this time. This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Tom Gayner for any closing remarks.

Thomas S. Gayner - Co-Chief Executive Officer

Management

Thank you very much for joining us. We look forward to speaking with you soon. Thanks. Bye-bye.

Operator

Operator

The conference is now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.