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MillerKnoll, Inc. (MLKN)

Q3 2018 Earnings Call· Wed, Mar 21, 2018

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good evening, everyone, and welcome to this Herman Miller Incorporated Third Quarter Fiscal Year 2018 Earnings Results Conference Call. This call is being recorded. This presentation will include forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements. These risks and uncertainties include those risk factors discussed in the Company’s reports on Form 10-K and 10-Q and other reports filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Today’s presentation will be hosted by Mr. Brian Walker, President and CEO; Mr. Jeff Stutz, Executive Vice President and CFO; and Mr. Kevin Veltman, Vice President, Investor Relations and Treasurer. Mr. Walker will open the call with brief remarks, followed by a more detailed presentation of the financials by Mr. Stutz and Mr. Veltman. We will then open the call to your questions. [Operator Instructions] At this time, I’d like to begin the presentation by turning the call over to Mr. Walker. Please go ahead.

Brian Walker

Analyst

Good evening. Thanks for joining us today. I’ll start with a brief review of our results for the quarter, followed by an update on progress during the quarter and our strategic priorities. I’ll close with a view of the current economic backdrop before turning it over to Jeff and Kevin for more information on the financial results including further background on the impact of the new U.S. tax law on our business. Sales for the quarter demonstrated broad-based growth across each of our business segments with the ELA and Consumer businesses leading the way with encouraging double-digit increases. At the consolidated level, sales of $578 million were up 10% from last year’s level, putting us slightly ahead of our midpoint forecast from back in December. We delivered EPS of $0.49 per share for the quarter which included a one-time impact of adopting the new U.S. tax law and a lower statutory U.S. tax rate. On adjusted basis, which excludes the one-time impact of this adoption and other special charges for the quarter, we reported EPS of $0.50, in line with the expectations we set in December. Adjusted EPS reflected growth of 28% over the same quarter last year, driven by a combination of operating performance and a lower normalized U.S. tax rate. New order patterns across the business were more mixed this quarter coming in 4% ahead of last year’s consolidated levels. On a positive front, our ELA consumer and Specialty segments each delivered impressive increases relative to last year. Notably, our Consumer segment posted its third consecutive quarter of double-digit organic order growth. And our international team delivered among the strongest quarters of growth I’ve ever seen in my career here at Herman Miller. Within our North American segment, the demand pattern was less encouraging this quarter. Following a…

Jeff Stutz

Analyst

Thanks, Brian, and good evening, everyone. Consolidated net sales in the third quarter of $578 million were 10% above the same quarter last year. Orders in the period of $563 million were nearly 4% above the same quarter a year ago. Within our North American segment, sales were $316 million in the third quarter, representing a year-over-year increase of 7%. New orders were $295 million in the quarter, reflecting a decrease of 7% from last year. On an organic basis, we posted year-over-year revenue growth of 8% while order levels were 6% lower than the same quarter last year. In addition to a rather challenging prior year comparison, our North America segment orders were up 7% last year on an organic basis for the third quarter, the business experienced the relative softening in large and medium project activity this quarter. Sector results for the quarter showed lower order demand in business services and utilities, partially offset by growth in energy and state and local government. Our ELA segment reported sales of $103 million in the third quarter, an increase of 17% compared to last year on a GAAP basis and up 11% organically. New orders totaled $114 million, which is 33% higher than last year on a reported basis and up 27% organically. The strong year-over-year order growth was broad based across all international regions with notable strength in the UK, Continental Europe, Australia, Mexico and the Middle East. Sales in the third quarter within our Specialty segment were $73 million, an increase of 5% from the year-ago period. New orders in the quarter of $71 million were up 7% over the same time frame. The increase in orders for this segment was driven principally by strong project activity for Geiger and the Herman Miller Collection. The Consumer business reported…

Kevin Veltman

Analyst

Thanks, Jeff. Good evening, everyone. We ended the quarter with total cash and equivalents of $193 million, which reflected an increase of $78 million from last quarter. This increase is primarily a result of borrowing an additional $75 million on our bank revolving credit facility in January, as part of our long-term capital structure. As discussed in prior quarters, we utilized the 10-year interest rate swap to fix our interest rate at 3.2% on this borrowing through January 2028. This transaction was in addition to borrowing $150 million on the revolver to repay private placement notes that matured in January. We also used a 10-year interest rate swap to fix our interest at 2.8% for this tranche of debt. In both cases, we were able to take advantage of the low interest environment when we entered into these interest rate swap transactions. Cash flows from operations in the period were $29 million, comparable to $28 million generated in the same quarter of last year. Capital expenditures were $11 million in the quarter and $51 million year-to-date. We anticipate capital expenditures of $75 million to $85 million for the full fiscal year. Cash dividends paid in the quarter were $11 million and we repurchased $13 million of shares during the quarter. We remain in compliance with all debt covenants and as of quarter end our gross debt to EBITDA ratio was approximately 1 to 1. The available capacity on our bank credit facility stood at $167 million at the end of the quarter. Given our current cash balance, ongoing cash flows from operations and our total borrowing capacity, we continue to be well-positioned to meet the financing needs of the business, moving forward. With that, I’ll turn the call back over to Jeff to cover our sales and earnings guidance for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2018.

Jeff Stutz

Analyst

Okay. With respect to the forecast, we anticipate sales in the fourth quarter to range between $590 million and $610 million. We estimate the year-over-year favorable impact of foreign exchange on sales for the quarter to be approximately $6 million. On an organic basis, adjusted for a dealer divestiture and the impact of foreign exchange translation, this forecast implies a revenue increase of 4% compared to last year as a midpoint of the range. We expect consolidated gross margin in the fourth quarter to range between 36.25% and 37.25%, reflecting a sequential quarter improvement from production leverage on expected higher sales volume and channel mix. This estimate also reflects our latest view on commodities including the recent uptick in steel pricing. Adjusted operating expenses in the fourth quarter are expected to range between $169 million and $173 million. On a GAAP basis diluted earnings per share for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2018 are expected to range between $0.49 and $0.53. We anticipate adjusted earnings per share to be between $0.56 and $0.60 for the period. Adjusted EPS excludes an estimated $6 million to $7 million of pretax restructuring and other charges expected in the fourth quarter of FY18. Also this assumes an effective tax rate in the quarter of 23% to 25%, reflecting the lower tax rate from the new U.S tax legislation. With that, I’ll now turn the call back over to Brian before we take your questions.

Brian Walker

Analyst

Thanks, Jeff. I thought I would close on a brief update on our planned CEO transition. As you know, in February, we announced my plan retire in the first quarter of fiscal 2019. The Board has formed a committee to evaluate internal and external succession candidates. To help with this work, we retained a global search firm. While we are early in the process, we continue to believe the successor will be identified early in the first quarter of fiscal 2019. This will leave ample time for an orderly transition. For now, it’s business as usual. We are focused on the strategic priorities we discussed earlier and serving our customers. Now, I’ll will turn the call over to the operator for your questions.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from line of Matt McCall from Seaport Global. Sir, your line is now open.

Matt McCall

Analyst

So, maybe start with the gross margin little bit. It looks like the Q4 guide, got about a 150 basis points of pressure on a year-over-year basis at the midpoint. And I guess, that’s even with the expectations of faster growth in Consumer that has higher gross margin. So, maybe take us through some of the puts and takes there. And then, if you could, give us an initial view about how some of those puts and takes can trend as we move out in the next fiscal year.

Jeff Stutz

Analyst

Hey, Matt, this is Jeff. Let me take a stab. I’m not sure I’m going to be able to quantify every line item for you for, but I will give you some color commentary. I would tell you, as a starting point, our expectation gross margins, absent what I mentioned earlier, which would be an improvement in margins due to higher production leverage. I would expect them to be the same factors that we just walked through on a year-over-year basis for Q3. Namely, the discounting pressure that we’re feeling, we certainly expect to continue to feel some of that as we move forward; product mix, I would say on the same order of magnitude year on year. We do -- and then commodities. And I think you’ll see an acceleration of some of the commodity pressure from steel prices. If I had to quantify that for you, it’s probably on the order of an incremental $1 million of year-over-year impact just related to steel by itself. The positive factors are a couple of things that I think are worth highlighting. I talked about one of them. Production leverage from higher volumes and we do tend to see that if you look back over history, you tend to us on the order of a 100 basis-point improvement in gross margins between Q3 and Q4. And production leverage tends to be a major factor that we did do a price increase in February, the beginning of February. So, we didn’t feel much of the impact of that in the third quarter, and we’ll have a full quarter, if you will, of price increase benefit, although I’d have to qualify that and say as you know from history in our business that layers in over time. The other thing, I’d point out is we have a higher expectation in terms of channel mix within our businesses, namely a higher mix of revenue coming from our consumer business expected in the fourth quarter relative to Q3. So, those are I think the major pieces that I’d call out for you.

Matt McCall

Analyst

Okay. I mean, I know it’s hard to look that far out. I’m not necessarily trying to get guidance for next fiscal year. But, when you talk about some of the trends for those items, I mean, anything that’s going to reverse or until we comp some of the difficulties, we’ll see the trends continue. I know, steel’s going higher still and discounting likely to continue. But any important call-outs for next fiscal year as we start to think about modeling gross margin relative to some of the weakness we’ve seen recently?

Jeff Stutz

Analyst

Matt, I’ve got one that comes to mind that I probably should have -- I should mention that will be a contributor to what we hope to be an improvement in Q4, but this will continue to next year on a year-over-year basis. And that is we’ve been talking the last few quarters about outsourcing, the impact of outsourcing certain production. We’ve been capacity constrained in a couple of areas. That will abate in the fourth quarter a bit for us. And certainly as we move into next year, we have some new capacity coming online. We won’t feel that the same degree of negative impact of that as we have the last few quarters. So, that certainly is one that will be an offset.

Brian Walker

Analyst

Certainly think of work we’re doing around Nemschoff, we just try to see some benefit. That’s pretty minor in the big scheme of things, Matt, but that’s been a negative drag. While that business isn’t I would say healthy, we are starting to see early signs of the work that the team is doing that are going to be positive. As Jeff mentioned, in addition to the -- in addition to the mix side of the consumer business, a good deal of the work we’ve done on profit optimization will actually hit the margin line, because a lot of that was both sourcing, pricing and the way we do promotion. So, I think we believe we’ll continue to see better margins in the consumer business, gross margins as well as operating margins. Look, I think the key right now to getting these trends revere, we are -- there is no doubt if the tariff pressure continues to come, we’re going to continue to see at least the steel prices that are already in front of us, those are going to get implemented. We will get some offset from where we’re today, if it didn’t move any further. But the price increase, as Jeff mentioned, it will layer in. So, we’ll capture some there. Obviously, there is currently longer downside risk because of the lag of prices and there has certainly been movement recently that are not yet into the steel prices. Having said that, our job as managers is not to sit and just for wait for that to happen, but to go do something about it. So, we are working on things around that like what can we do as we look at individual project pricing to maximize pricing on project. Now that’s -- obviously, we’ve been in a strong or difficult pricing environment. I think most of the industry is showing some of that. But as steel moves, it is going to be difficult to do that simply through list price increases. So, at the same time, we’re going to have to be good at what you might call, situational pricing. And I think, our team is spending a lot of time asking that question where can we optimize it that is by doing some of the work I think we’ve already done around products but I think there will also to be done at the sort of project-by-project, negotiation-by-negotiation piece, which we will have to be better at it. And we are going to set our sights to at least making sure we don’t let further deterioration happen.

Jeff Stutz

Analyst

Let me just add one more thing. I think, we should be really clear on this point. We have been marching our way toward a goal of achieving operating income at the consolidated level, adding that 10% level by FY20. We are not walking away from that as a goal. We’ve typically described our, if you will, leverage capability or contribution margin over the long-run as a ratio of operating income growth to sales growth. And we’ve tended to talk about that as you know, as a goal of growing operating income at 2 to 2.5 times the rate of sales. We still believe that’s the right range. Now, admittedly the recent inflationary pressures around steel in particular, that makes -- that tougher climb, and I would tell you, we’re still believers of that range. It probably points us toward the lower end of that range as we move into next year, based on everything we know now. And steel prices have really spiked up in recent week. It’s anyone’s guess right now as to how long it lingers there or goes up a bit, moderates a bit. But, right now, that’s our point of view.

Brian Walker

Analyst

I’d also say, Matt, it’s something we’re adding a lot to this question, this is probably the most important thing to think about right now beyond what’s happening in demand patterns. The other thing I noted in my comments is while we have really generated a good deal of work towards our gross savings we expected to get, the net hasn’t been there. So, this quarter we began an engagement with the same group of folks have been helping us on the consumer business, which we have growing confidence in. We’ll know more as we get through the fourth quarter, but those numbers look to us like they are very likely in the range that we’ve given you. We are starting a similar program with them right now within the North American contract business. It’s too early to talk numbers but that is really targeted saying how do we get the capture rate we needed to get to that 10%. And that is one of the objectives we have there. We’ll know more when we get to the fourth quarter. We’ll know more what we are starting to look at in terms of a range of possibility just like we did with the consumer business. It takes us about a quarter to get that work really fully scoped out. We’re about four weeks into the work right now. So, it’s a little early. We think we will have a good picture as we get to the end of the fourth quarter and begin to implement. The question will be can we capture any of that next year. And that’s going to be a question mark as we get. Right now, we think -- if you look back at the consumer business, we didn’t really begin that work until the start of the second quarter. We think we’re going to capture some in the fourth quarter, although not a great deal. And so -- but we think we’ll get some in the first quarter. So, it takes -- if that is a bogie, it will take us about a year to get there. If we get started now in the fourth quarter, like we are, start the third quarter, there’s a chance we could get a quarter of that work into next year. And that’s kind of our push is while we may not be seeing it right now, we’re getting impacted heavily by inflationary pressures and discounting, we got us moving and we are moving. We didn’t wait until now, even though to be frank it was a little deeper in the last month of the quarter than we expected with some of the commodity moves and other things. We already started to see this, as a pattern, and early in the quarter made the decision we’re going to get going on that work. So, fortunately, the team is already at least in front of it as far as we can be, given what’s happening.

Matt McCall

Analyst

And I was actually going to ask the question about the consultant moving over into the -- and looking at the New York -- North American office business, but you kind of answered it. I just wanted to get some clarification. So, it sounds like this is more gross margin focused than SG&A focused. And when you broke out the new segment profitability, one thing that jumped out to us was how profitable that business was. So, is it -- is the idea to focus on your most profitable business? Is it kind of a result of some of the inflationary pressures that we’ve seen? It’s interesting to me that that would be the area, the next area of focus given that it is so profitable. So, clearly you see incremental opportunity. And I guess related to it, the continued investments, you’re doing a good job on SG&A, but you’re also talking about continuing to invest. So, I’m trying to balance all those things as we look out in the next year. And maybe the answer is just comment around 2 times, the rate of sales growth in ‘18 will get me to my answer. But just trying to put all these things together?

Brian Walker

Analyst

Let me try to string those together. I think that’s a very good question. First of all, the good news is we have a very profitable North American contract business. It also has -- a fair part of that business is, you might imagine is fairly mature where many of the other businesses are younger, if you will or been in a state of rapid growth. So, they’ve taken a little bit more to get where they need to be. At the same time, I think you have to look at what’s happening in the contract business or the traditional business. That business is changing rapidly in terms of the complexity of the products and therefore what it takes to manage that business. And what we don’t want to do is be behind on making sure that we have looked at everything in that business to ask what can we do to be more effective? I don’t think you should assume its cost of goods sold because we don’t know that yet. To be honest, when we started this work in the consumer business, what we ended up working on, to be frank, was probably not what I would have predicted from the beginning, neither magnitude of the work nor the areas that they look at. So, it is not a limited engagement where you said, look at one thing. We said, come in, take a deep look with our folks, help us look across the spectrum at things that you think we should be paying attention to. This is not, I would say, a cost cutting exercise though. It is a optimization exercise. And if the consumer business is any guide, much of the work became about understanding and utilizing our own data to better guide decision-making. It involves…

Operator

Operator

And our next question comes from the line of Kathryn Thompson from Thompson Research. Your line is now open.

Steven Ramsey

Analyst

This is Steven on for Kathryn. I guess, first, looking at gross margin, do you believe gross margins will be pressured to an equal degree in all segments from inflation, taking into account that Consumer segment showed expansion this quarter?

Brian Walker

Analyst

No. I mean, I think right now, the biggest move you’ve seen has been in steel, and you are starting to see some of it in lumber, which more impacted contract business. Certainly, you will see and we continue to see overall inflation, you’re going to see that I think across the economy, although I don’t think it’s runaway yet. I think this tariffs stuff is moving it. Certainly, the U.S. dollar movement makes some parts of the business have cost increases, especially stuff you’re bringing in from Europe. On the other hand, it also provides benefits in many -- in some cases will drive higher margins and higher realization in places like Canada. So, on balance, right now that looks like actually it’s a net positive to a degree. So, I think, we’ll feel it primarily right now in the North American contract and probably the international business where we have more content of those commodities.

Jeff Stutz

Analyst

Yes. Steven, this is Jeff. Though, I would point out in our international business in talking with our supply management folks, they’re not currently seeing the same level of inflationary pressure on steel specifically as we are in the U.S. Now, I can’t predict exactly where that’s going to go here over the next few quarters, but particularly, in China as an example, they’re are not seeing the level of increases that we are in the U.S. So, so far it’s been tilted more toward North America.

Steven Ramsey

Analyst

Excellent. And then on price increases, was the February price increase a business as usual kind of increase. And at this point, are you confident if it came to the situation you could increase prices further in the next 12 months?

Brian Walker

Analyst

Steven, yes, look at -- I think, the pattern typically, as you capture, around 30% of the list price increase falls through. To be frank, if we could have predicted the tariffs perfectly, we probably would have done a bigger price increase at the time. It’s difficult in the contract business to do a price increase more than once a year. It’s possible. It is more difficult because you have contracts that often have clauses in them that limit how often you can do one. Now, we are exploring what are the things we can do because there are some ways to do that. I think, for sure, a year-out we would certainly feel like we would -- we could do one and we would capture some. On the other hand, we have multiple levers to pull right now. While we have standard discounting for customers on contracts that tend to be within a range of project size, and often you are on larger projects, either midsized projects, you are competitively bidding. And so, I think those are places where you can also manage around the edges by being better at your pricing, both not only looking at discounting but looking at how you value engineer solutions that don’t require you to pull the price lever. So, we will look at the full gambit of ways to manage it. We can’t tell you going forward that we get it perfectly predicted. But, I can say that we are talking about and looking at all of those levers to see what we can do, at least to make sure that we can ameliorate any further difficulty there. But, I think it’s going to be -- we’re going to have to be great at cost; we’re going to work on making costs, making the business more efficient. I think, the work we’re doing on the outside will help us with that. We’re going to have to be better at situational pricing and over time we’ll look to where we can do price increases.

Steven Ramsey

Analyst

All right. And then last question being about discounting. Do you expect discounting in the market to ease up as everybody starts to encounter these inflationary headwinds or do you even that competitors view the lower tax rate giving them room to lower prices to be competitive in the contract business?

Brian Walker

Analyst

Well, to be frank that’s somewhat unknowable at this point because we don’t know what their thoughts are. You certainly would hope that as folks see price inflation or cost inflation that everybody would look at what do we do with pricing overall. But that’s one that’s very difficult to predict. And I think that somewhat will depend on what demand levels look like. If demand strengthens as a result of the tax change, I think it’s more likely, folks will feel less pressure to discount to get the business that is out there. So, I think it’s going to really depend on what the mix of the situation is. And hopefully, we don’t see any economic slowdown from tariffs and all of those things that we continue to see the global economy move along. But, at least we’re in a period of growth and you are not dealing with inflation in a non-growth period. As you know, the industry has been a little bit up and down over the last year. There are certainly categories that are growing very rapidly and there are categories that aren’t growing so rapidly. So, I think you are goal has to be move as much as your mix to the areas that are growing rapidly and get much smarter and more efficient in the areas that aren’t, so that you can play as effectively there as possible. And then again hope that we don’t see any slowdown in the global economy or particularly in the U.S.

Operator

Operator

And I’m currently seeing no further questions. I would now like to turn the call back Mr. Brian Walker for any further remarks.

Brian Walker

Analyst

Thanks for joining us on the call today. We appreciate your continued interest in Herman Miller and look forward to updating you next quarter. Have a great evening.

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for participating in today’s conference. This concludes today’s program and you may now disconnect. Everyone have a great day.