Operator
Operator
[ABRUPT START] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded, Tuesday, April 27, 2010. I would now like to turn the call over to Matt Ginter, Vice President of Investor Relations at 3M.
3M Company (MMM)
Q1 2010 Earnings Call· Wed, Apr 28, 2010
$145.48
-0.20%
Same-Day
+1.23%
1 Week
-1.87%
1 Month
-10.12%
vs S&P
-1.74%
Operator
Operator
[ABRUPT START] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded, Tuesday, April 27, 2010. I would now like to turn the call over to Matt Ginter, Vice President of Investor Relations at 3M.
Matt Ginter
Management
Welcome to our first quarter earnings call and business review. Before we address this quarter’s results, I want to mention two up coming events. First is our up coming Plant Tour and Consumer and Office Business Review, scheduled for the morning of June 29th, at our posted manufacturing facility in Cynthiana, Kentucky. A formal invite will be sent out shortly. In the meantime please hold the date. Also as I mentioned on the January earnings call, we have set aside the morning of Tuesday, December 7th for our Annual Outlook Meeting in New York City. Complete details regarding timing and location will be available later this year. Before I turn things over to George, please take a moment to read the forward-looking statements on slide 2. During today’s conference call, we will make certain predictive statements that reflect our current views about out future performance and financial results. Those statements are based on certain assumptions and expectations of future events that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Item 1A of our most recent Form 10-K lists some of the most important risk factors that could cause actual results to differ from our predictions. So, let's begin today's review. Turn to slide number three and I’ll turn it over to George.
George Buckley
Management
Thank you very much, Matt and good morning everybody. By now, you’ve all seeing the numbers and we hope that investors are happy with our progress in first quarter. Last quarter, I told you that I’ve never been more confident in our growth prospects and the first quarter is exhibit Asia we call and just the reason why we feel that way. It was spectacular quarter of many contribute especially gratifying as an affirmation of both our strategic direction and of implementation of our plan. A few highlights if I may please. Sales grew by 25% in the quarter this was the largest single percentage quarter increase in any memory or record yet, with organic volume improvement over 19%. Adjusting for special items in this case Medicare Part D earning was $1.40 per share, an all time 3Mregard for the first quarter. We maintain our best-in-class margins at 22.8%. up 700 basis points year-on-year. I can think of no better way to refuse some of the collection margin doubt in (inaudible). The strong performance was across the board, all of business posted double digit sales growth along with 20% plus operating income margins and some like display and graphics, electrco and communications and industrial and transportation were particularly outstanding. Geographically, sales growth were strongest in emerging economies where sales expanded by 47% versus the first quarter 2009. We are trying to posting a huge volume gain at 63%, Korea 74% and Taiwan whopping 88% gain. (inaudible) in March we had 16 countries across the world by the sales growth was 50% or better, yes 16 countries. Korea and Taiwan were 75% in March and these are not small businesses. United States was no slouch either in this growth rates. Sales were up over 11% in the quarter and up 18%…
Pat Campbell
Management
Thanks George and good morning everyone. Please turn to slide number 4, on our GAAP reported basis, first quarter earnings were $1.29 per share, a healthy 74% increase over the first quarter of 2009, included in that result was a one-time non-cash income tax charge of $84 million or $0.11 of share resulting from a Medicare Part D changes embedded in the recently enacted Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act here in the U.S. Our prior earnings expectations from the January earnings call were based upon the tax line effect as of the date and therefore do not contemplate this change or charge. So excluding this item, earnings were $1.40 per share, which is an all-time record for any first quarter in the company’s history, up 89% versus the first quarter of 2009 GAAP earnings per share. Importantly, we achieved this result less than a record sales. As our first quarter sales were still below 2008 levels. So there’s no doubt that we’re running the company today with a much more competitive cost position. On the whole, our first quarter performance was ahead of our own expectations. So the year is off to a very strong start. Let’s examine a few of the details, please turn to slide number 5. Since the worst of last year's recession, we have now put together a string of outstanding quarters, and the first quarter was the best thus far. First quarter sales increased nearly 25% and this growth came from virtually every part of the world. Asia Pacific grew 54% and the combined Latin America, Canada regions expanded sales by 26%. European sales grew 15.9% and growth in the US was 11.6%. We experienced double-digit worldwide sales increases in every business segments led by Display and Graphics of 42%, Electro and Communications of…
George Buckley
Management
Thank you very much, Pat. Well, let’s take a look now at the remainder of the year. I like being on this side of the gradient a lot better than I did the other, but in reality the forecasting which get no easier, I think you have very long large growth rates when you have very large contractions. I will do to demystify for what’s happening. There’s certainly lot of forward momentum in our sales volume, so the (Inaudible) is how this will pay out in the coming quarters. We’ll show so good sales growth in the fourth quarter. We can think one of observation being a data point, two being a trend, and three all more to me is a pattern. So I think, we’re closely seeing whether this growth is in fact have pattern or just a temporary abrasion of wary economy dealing with recovery. Perhaps, we had inventory, others didn’t, or we could find them sit where, others couldn’t. (inaudible) my target it will slip back as growth normalizes and credit availability improves and ultimate could argue once the shares is us to lose to as to win. I’ve heard comments in news media that anyone now doubting a strong US recovery is silly. Result has said that maybe uncomfortable uncertainties formal ridiculous. It is nothing magical about where the bank comes from, it comes only when and from where people or companies spend money, we’ve observe increased order slowing non-cycle companies, because it's no optimism now on the likelihood of sustainability. The housing stocks in the United States increased in March by about 20% year-over-year to an annualized rate to 626,000 which is also 1.6% up on February. Non transportation rate of durable goods orders rose by about 3% and we sold that some of the…
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions). Our first question comes from the line of Scott Davis of Morgan Stanley.
Scott Davis - Morgan Stanley
Analyst
Hi, good morning, guys. Pretty big core gross number you put together there.
Matt Ginter
Management
We really thought its pretty good, Scott.
Scott Davis - Morgan Stanley
Analyst
About three years of growth in one quarter. Anyways, couple of things, guys you didn’t spend a whole lot of time in the presentation talking about use of this free cash flow and you are sitting very nicely on a fairly large cash balance your obviously had some dry powder there. What's out there? You've got a little bit of share count slippage in your forecast. Is there anything holding you back from buying back shares, or is that just reflect on how strong the M&A environment could potentially be for you this year?
Pat Campbell
Management
Scott, obviously there is a very good question and I guess the way were thinking of it is corresponding of our growth opportunities is the highest party for the company. You look at our results in returns that are obviously what we think as the best pay back for the shareholders, and we think the long term growth prospectus for the company. So we are continue to obviously push the organic side of it, we did indicate that we are going to increase some of our investment programs unlike, but importantly we are active in the M&A market. We have announced anything, we are looking at fair amount of deals are in the pipeline, neither George or I feel compelled, though to be pushed okay to utilize the cash that we have in appropriately. So we will remain our cautious sales we always have will be but we are looking at a number of deals across our businesses, probably more focused internationally than recent track record would lead you to believe because of part of it is we do have more cash outside of the US and much more our cash generation capability outside the United States, and we think we are just huge growth potentially outside the United States as well. We made a number of small strategic deals in home care that we have talked about in the like and we were prospecting for those across the logos as we speak. But I would guess more like the second half of the year before you would see much relative to anything of size.
George Buckley
Management
Scott, we follow the same pattern that we always have slightly can we close to call; it will be very easily manageable. I don't think Pat or I see any hugely disruptive or blockbuster acquisitions. And when you look behind these numbers one thing that perhaps we didn’t emphasis strongly we might it done is, we’ve got a lot of places in these new advanced technology that we’ve release, Scott. That really capacity is just being mopped up immediately. So, we do have some pretty good internal choices although they obviously small relative spend time they are relative to some of things he is speaking about. So, overall I think, situation gives great choices and we’ll develop as the year unfolds.
Scott Davis - Morgan Stanley
Analyst
Sure. Guys, as a follow on, your Asia-Pacific growth numbers 47%, big numbers, and if I was to make one particular last several years, I would say that I thought your Asia-Pacific growth was a little, China in particular, a little bit disappointing versus the potential. Obviously, we’ve inflected up there. What do you kind of attribute that to? Is there a wider rollout of SKUs, is it capacity? Is it sales? I mean what do you kind of attribute that inflection point in emerging markets?
George Buckley
Management
Well, we have been building plans Scott, last few years. So, there is no question having locally available capacity is part of issue I think, that we followed a China for China strategy. We don’t use China is an export source. The other thing is that starting really about a year ago we began to hire lot of extra people for a lot of extra money. We have growth expansion plan in the industrial and consumer office, in medical and so the money has been put to work Scott and now we begin to see some of the opportunity coming through, So we are actually in the process of reorganization where we can are getting closer contact with the market, and I think clearly the number demonstrate, but I think the future holds this wonderful prospects, so that part of the world and they do same in India and in Russia too Scott. We are building in building new lab, they are sitting our last quarter conference call. That’s turned out to be for us to allow, to not being absolute money bank guarantee on growth. So I think it's reason to expect that this will continue not withstanding any other issues the China itself may have in the economy.
Pat Campbell
Management
Yes Scott there was a piece I was going to pick up on was that I think the piece that would really have start to see a large traction on is our local lab capability in places like China, and have really started to develop a lot of new product idea, so you met skews so forth. They were getting a lot of new products of our developing market lab organizations these days to get price at more appropriate for these markets.
Operator
Operator
Our next question comes from the line of Jeff Sprague of Vertical Research Partners.
Jeff Sprague - Vertical Research Partners
Analyst
Thank you. Good morning, everyone
Matt Ginter
Management
Good morning.
Jeff Sprague - Vertical Research Partners
Analyst
As you said, there are a lot of different things and it’s maybe hard to totally deconstruct the magnitude of your out performance. But I wonder if you could elaborate on the idea that you or Pat alluded to, I don't recall now that competitors cut perhaps too far and were left flat footed by this. And clearly, they will try to rebound, but I guess just thinking about the competitive dynamics. How big of an impact do you think that was and what can you do to extend that lead now that you’ve established it in a few key areas?
George Buckley
Management
Well, I don’t think there this sort of comment Jeff, with this (inaudible) my engineering training and trying determine a small number subtract in difference in two large numbers both of which we’ve got either a result or variability in them. So it’s really hard to get down on those numbers, I mean it’s especially muddy Jeff when you see the huge number of markets we serve and the huge number of product. So everything ends up being a little bit of this and a little bit of that. But we are seeing some competitors getting weaker. I really what to try to do my level best to impress on you the hugely significant change in the way we’ve gone to market here and particularly in the optical business. And we always, we tended to serve the OEM markets, we are little bit disconnected there from the set manufacturer in particular, we have altered that completed. We’ve gone right to the end markets. We’ve reestablished trust and I think in the end most of these guys Jeff, they believe in us, they believe this is the place where the innovation is coming. They see the product you are seeing coming out in the market. This is the stuff that being invented by 3M, even the facilitating LED technology being facilitated by 3M. So one thing is very, very different here is the relationship between us and our customers, and I'm hoping what that does is secure and at least maybe to some cases if you’re drifting away, that we get early warnings. But I’m hard pressed unless, Pat’s got a better idea to absolutely quantify how much of that sort of early share, shall we say we’re grabbing. It is very difficult for me to generally answer. We’ll ponder it for you Jeff, unless Matt or Pat has got a better of the tough idea.
Pat Campbell
Management
Jeff, I don’t think we can give you a precise answer numerically, but can probably give you some of your more qualitative. We saw going into the recession that a number of large OEMs wanted to secure a much more reliable supply chain and we saw that really play out through last year as far as gaining new designs. We just didn’t see the volume and so the recovery came. Then I think the flip side is also happening now is that as the economy improves, I think there’s some competitors who were having more difficult time responding. So I think we’re getting some business back on that side, but I say it’s just pretty much across many of our industrial and electronics business, okay. They’ve been very successful and gaining business there.
Jeff Sprague - Vertical Research Partners
Analyst
A separate question, just pick one end market to talk about, maybe if there's others you want to elaborate on, but the push into labels, what you are doing with A1? How significant is that market opportunity, and how should we think about the rollout there over the next six to 12 months?
George Buckley
Management
I think, Jeff that market for labels is of the order, $0.5 billion a year and A1s, $80 million or so I think it's a very nice marketplace clearly and actually would expect 3M is the innovative in that area. So I think it's a nice adjacency very much close to (inaudible) material science. So I think it obviously depends on the end market reaction and those successful at getting competitive convergence in the marketplace, and there’s some tough competition, but I think that we will be successful in that market not only in the coming year, but I think ultimately innovation and great services going to be the difference. So I think is going to be a good market structure.
Operator
Operator
And your next question is from the line of Terry Darling of Goldman Sachs.
Terry Darling - Goldman Sachs
Analyst
I wondering if I could understand some of the pieces of guidance a little bit better maybe come at it from a couple of different angles. The first one would just be very simplistically, if you take your first quarter earnings by four, it's at the high end of guidance. But we’re building momentum, March versus January, February. Can you just take us through your thinking on cadence quarterly earnings, cadence throughout the year? I guess your comments would lead me to think you think that the second quarter is up from the first, but maybe the second half is down, at least as implied by the guidance there, maybe start with that?
Pat Campbell
Management
Terry you’re trying to attract me back into quarterly guidance ago, which you know we are not going to do, but let me try to give you little bit of flavor. You can take our first quarter you're annualizing okay, you kind to get to the high-end of the ranges one way of approaching. and of course, yes, some unusual thing, Q1 we got the stock option expands a hiss that okay and we actually at a lower tax rate okay in Q1 those have tendency kind of offset. But do expect that our normal trend would be that our Q2, Q3 are higher okay than Q1, Q4, it will kind of a normal, kind of course we advance the way that we will see it. Now of course the comps are going to get from a reporting standpoint a little bit unusual here because of course the second quarter was weaker last year than as with the year progressed at the back end of 2009, ended up with some stronger periods and of course, we had a very strong performance in the back half of the year well to the H1N1 demand both on the top line, which were probably impact on our comp assure by about a point now from the back half of the year from a revenue perspective and obviously from a earning standpoint, well. But do expect that generally speaking Q2, Q3 okay should run probably a little bit ahead of the Q1 and then Q4 naturally would have a tendency to fall off a little bit off of Q3, Q4. So I don't see ending this highly unusual this year from kind of a traditional seasonality perspective.
Terry Darling - Goldman Sachs
Analyst
From another angle trying to understand what’s implied in the incremental margins and guidance? If I take the high end of the range on our EPS and kind of the low end of the range on organic and I kind of look at what the incremental were implied for the rest of the year versus 2Q versus 4Q of last year. Kind of looks like, 17%, 20% incremental margin. You mentioned a couple other factors in there, I just want to make sure I’m clear on what you’ve changed on some of these items. I think I heard you say it, you’re taking R&D up $100 million versus previous?
Pat Campbell
Management
Yes, I guess Terry two things, one is: let’s start with the year as a total. For the year, when you look at our change of the top line, bottom line effectively our incremental margins in that 35% to 40% range which is kind of our long-term rate that we have been running to in kind of guide to of course we did a little bit better in the first quarter. What we said is that some of our new growth investments which will start to kick in back towards the back half for the year. We had already talked about maybe $115 million going into the year. We said that we will probably invest another $40 million or so in George’s comments he kind of wrapped R&D together okay and talked about $100 million increase in R&D across this new growth programs would be part of it. So that’s part of the impact that will hits on kind of an incremental basis on going forward basis, and also remember that starting with the second quarter we will re-launch somewhere compensation related programs like merit plans and so forth that we had kind of frozen for the last year. So if you look at the top line and bottom line is more reflective of point through our operating margin okay, level is for the back half of the year.
Terry Darling - Goldman Sachs
Analyst
Has anything changed on that the raw material price, raw material spread assumptions?
Pat Campbell
Management
I would say not change hugely, you should expect that mature cost will start kicking up here in Q2 on us, but that has been in our plan. Of course we have some very aggressive cost reduction program on the material side as well try to offset as much of this possible. So I would not put it as a significant change from our prior expectations?
Terry Darling - Goldman Sachs
Analyst
I wasn't exactly clear on the H1N1 delta. Maybe just tell us what you are now looking for that business to be down in total for the year maybe.
Pat Campbell
Management
Okay, I’ll describe give you order of magnitude more than likely our 2010 level would be in the $100 million of range revenue. Last year we did about $250. So, of course you got a significant change will be first half of this year and Arroyo was last half of last is on the impact. So, you get a benefit of first and second quarter of this year and then really you get kind of the deterioration in the back half of next year turns.
Matt Ginter
Management
Terry, we had each of the third and fourth quarter about roughly $90 million to $95 million of each one and one related sales last year. So, that’s the 1.5 point drag the George refer to even the second half of this year.
Pat Campbell
Management
I think, again offset by an unknown amount of the industrial recommend we should not factor into numbers, which we help, and we do have a very nice new product program where we are getting ready to launch and my compensate some of that volumes. So, we need to be pessimistic on that but I think we are trying to tell you the best of we know on the profile those sales of the year.
Terry Darling - Goldman Sachs
Analyst
I'll ask one more and get out of the way here. D&G margins were one of the big upsides here in the first quarter. If we go back historically, you’ve gotten those as high as 30% plus. It doesn’t sound like you see inventory as a problem there, George.
George Buckley
Management
No.
Terry Darling - Goldman Sachs
Analyst
What keeps us from continuing to track higher with those margins?
Pat Campbell
Management
Right, well first of all you are not going to track higher business, we are not going to go back to the margins that we had three to five years ago just a dynamics that industry will not allow that to happen. And I think when you look at the margins of the D&G had 24% margins in that collective businesses is a very good result, and it realistically as well as optical business maintain stronger, which we expected to do here in the near future, will be able to run it those kind of rates.
Operator
Operator
Your next question comes from the line of Laurence Alexander with Jefferies & Company Laurence Alexander - Jefferies & Company: Two quick questions on your growth rate. First, as you look at doubling your growth rate assumption for this year, how much of that change in perspective was driven by your electronics exposure? And secondly, as you think longer term, how much of the market share gains on the retail side do you think is permanent versus transitory?
Pat Campbell
Management
Well, I guess on the retail side still has been more permanent I don't see those beings a transitory change in all large, and I guess I haven't looked that the change in guidance by end market per se, I guess if you just look that plus taking our guidance by five points you could argue that maybe 30% to 40% of that probably is kind to be electronics related, that would be a little bit higher than what our total businesses okay, in electronics, but when you look that I think were the growth rate is so forth is cross some more businesses that probably be a kind of more than order magnitude number Lawrence.
Operator
Operator
And your next question comes from the line of Bob Cornell with Barclays Capital.
Bob Cornell - Barclays Capital
Analyst · Barclays Capital.
Thanks. You had to put up a good quarter for me, I appreciate it. I think we get did message. The $1.40 was great and the guidance may have an element of caution in it. I guess a lot of questions have been asked. I would say in terms of the pyramid pricing, you mentioned traffic as one business that has benefited from the impairment pricing strategy, and maybe you can just comment just broadly across the portfolio how much you saw there?
Pat Campbell
Management
Well, I don’t have a complete number for the pyramid as a whole, George said we would try to dissect the pieces, George, do you want to comment?
George Buckley
Management
One number we calculated for last year, we though it about $200 million of additional sales that is coming from this manage the pyramid strategy. Of course, we’ve only just started and you can imagine, Bob this is a kind of step wise strategy for us, we have many more areas that we can attack, and I think the figure has been so nice is that we haven’t seen deteriorating by the managed system to get the cost on both products, right. And the pricing expectations have been, I think well managed. So I don’t know if we can expect that to be double this year up to 400, but I think it gives you some kind of sighting shot on what contribution it makes to end this year.
Bob Cornell - Barclays Capital
Analyst · Barclays Capital.
Yes, I agree. Looks like you guys are doing a lot right. Looking forward to the following.
Operator
Operator
Our next question comes from the line of Steven Winoker of Bernstein.
Steven Winoker - Bernstein
Analyst
First question is around the exceptional growth in Asia-Pac. So it was down 26% last year and core growth up 46% first quarter this year, how much of that was optical system? I know optical system doubled in total but if you sort of looked at it within Asia-Pac I am trying to get it sense for how much Asia- Pacific was really optical related?
Pat Campbell
Management
We’ll have to probably pull that out.
Steven Winoker - Bernstein
Analyst
But let me move on to the next question and within the health care margin they had 31:1 and I know you’ve talked about re investment in the second half overall, and lot of it the cost coming back historically. Can you comment is your vision for margins in that business completely consistent with where you guys were when you talked about that in the last four five months?.
Pat Campbell
Management
I think it is Steve what we’ve said is that overall long -term period of time that business maybe in the high yield a high 20s, it’s a great business and the more volume that you have to, it’s a very profitable business, so it's able to maintain the 30% type margin without really starting it, what we’re hoping to do is over time that what we can do is find additional growth investments in that business which may bring us its margins down, but I don’t anticipate that is going to happen over night. There will be more of a gradual change as compared to a kind of a one quarter movement actually. That’s a fantastic business and if you just do the math it's pretty hard to bring that margin down if you got any kind of growth going on.
George Buckley
Management
Behind the scenes there’s a lot of work going on, moving up business obviously protecting the call that we have that moving up business to at even more advanced footing. So, we’re looking any investments in advance. We’ll care a lot of look on using very advanced mathematics to diagnostics. Taking extracted signals from some of the advances we have been using that so we’re doing some internal development on that looking at least long or possibly two acquisitions in that area. So I think, what you’re going to see is it kind of a bit of a technological mix of more electronics, more software, and more mathematics that will augment the great businesses we already have. Actually, even in some senses kind of repositioning that business a little bit, taking on various areas of Health Care and particularly various areas of the hospital in operating theatres and so and so forth, and putting together a fully integrated set of a product suite products to meet all other needs that consumable needs in particular they’re in those areas. So I think the strategy at the beginning unfold the steps are being taken Steve, it’s a bit of the watch this space, but I’ve given you kind of a little bit of a preview of some of the ways, places that we’re thinking in this business. That’s right I think, you’re going to see margins, I don’t see them dropping below the high 20s, but for time, we will spend more money in that and hopefully this will remain for many, many years, just like great businesses of 3M, it’s a wonderful business.
Matt Ginter
Management
On your first question, historically, a few years ago virtually all the growth in Asia was optical for a while but this quarter it was quite balanced. Optical was probably a little under third of the growth in Asia-Pacific and the remainder was really spread across the rest of the portfolio.
Steven Winoker - Bernstein
Analyst
On pricing, given the big snap back, you talked about it a little bit, I mean what kind of pricing pressures or desperation you’re seeing as volume comes back from the competitive set and you guys are actually facing across the businesses?
Pat Campbell
Management
Steve, I wouldn’t characterize it at all as any kind of an abnormal pressure. I think part of course what you’re seeing is, I think demand has snap back so rapidly here in Q1 in a number of spaces. The biggest concern we’ve had the suppliers and I think others have had is supply capability as much as anything right now, and I think once we get the supply system where it needs to be then obviously, you can get into price discussion, but right now, I think the biggest concern a lot of us have is, can we get product.
Steven Winoker - Bernstein
Analyst
You answer to that as you look forward and plan to ?
Pat Campbell
Management
We’re planning kind of a flat pricing environment for the year, this year Steven, we haven’t changed that view.
Steven Winoker - Bernstein
Analyst
Lastly on the R&D front, I know you increased spending of $100 million. Sales, it was still far ahead of that thought that you faced a lower percentage of sales on that. As you look forward and sort of temper the growth rates a little bit, your overall R&D spending, would you spend more if you had the right projects at this point? How do you think about funding that? You talked about the $40 million of new investment. How should we think about that?
George Buckley
Management
In the beginning of the year, we have a process where we look not only at the R&D spend, but because it’s a development spend and we obviously try to make a balanced judgment on how much extra we’re going to invest to make sure that we don’t damage the overall number. So a little bit of sort of a baby bear balancing act. So we have the ideas and what we choose to do in this first quarter, because things are as strong as we accelerated investment. That pattern I think is likely to continue during the year if things stay very, very strong, we will see where else we can do the reinvestment loan, knowing full well that this is an accelerated to our growth. It would cost something in the near term but would be very, very powerful for us in the long term. So I don’t think you should think that we have an idea in fact is the complete opposite, it is one of the real changes in the company as its really gain traction in the this reinvigoration of R&D, these wonderful new ideas are all over the place, and is just a question about privatizing, funding, while at the same time balancing what we do for the market.
Operator
Operator
Our last question comes from the line of Stephen Tusa of JPMorgan. Please proceed with your question.
Stephen Tusa - JPMorgan
Analyst
You talked about some of the temporary costs coming back in into the second quarter. Is that significant, or maybe if you just flesh it out a bit?
Pat Campbell
Management
Steve, I don’t as being significant is obviously manageable within the size of our business and obviously taking into consideration in our guidance for the year, I think on the comp side is about $0.04 to $0.05 on they gone quarterly basis is kind of what we are probably putting back into the system but what we can manage.
Stephen Tusa - JPMorgan
Analyst
Okay and then as far as the earnings that you gave at the beginning of the year which is always very helpful, aside from the obvious things you have already talked about like price cost and some of the organic dynamics, is there anything else in there that is changing in that bridge?
Pat Campbell
Management
I will say the big change Steve as really been in the volume side. If you go back to our December meeting or any other conversation we had is the biggest change in that whole waterfall really has been on the volume side the equation.
Stephen Tusa - JPMorgan
Analyst
Just one last question on the level of growth you saw in the first quarter. Maybe this just because it's picked up in the back half of the year, but seasonally, the first quarter relative to the fourth quarter has at least as things pick up kind of if you look back from '03 to '07, the average increase has been about 4%, and the sequential increase this quarter was about 4%, obviously the comp is tremendously easy and I'm not discounting the growth rates. I mean the growth rates were off the charts year-over-year, no doubt about it, but are we missing something there? Is there another way we should look at this to judge how strong it is, just to judge kind the progression of the economy here?
Pat Campbell
Management
Yes, you got an appropriate comment if you look at kind year-over-year and so forth from a comps standpoint, but Steven really coming off the fourth quarter, you have to remember that fourth quarter was actually a good quarter for us. We had very decent quarter specially vis-à-vis any kind of the economic indicators in life. So we have seen good sequential change in our business and actually what makes us feel good about actually increase in your guidance for the whole year is really the rate of change that we have had in our business. I don’t see there is anything unusual there at all.
Stephen Tusa - JPMorgan
Analyst
Okay and then one last question, the progression for the rest of the year. Obviously another good second quarter coming on the organic side, and you gave a slide last conference call talking about the second half growth rate at 2% to 4%? Are you bumping up the back half to the second half as well? I'm just curious as to the progression of the organic growth through the rest of the year? And is the fourth quarter positive?
Pat Campbell
Management
Well, it should be positive and just wanted to remind you, back half of the year as Matt had pointed out each one and when we do have kind of headwind about a point and a half in the back half of the year, but we will be positive if you take our guidance and you kind of extrapolate it implies kind of 7% to 10% growth rate through the back half of the year. My guess it kind of anticipate just the concept private be a little bit better in the second quarter that is in the back half of the year but that’s how we are thinking of the business.
Stephen Tusa - JPMorgan
Analyst
Is that 2 to 4 goes up, obviously?
Pat Campbell
Management
Yes, it does.
George Buckley
Management
Okay, thank you very much everybody. We’ll close our call right now. Thank you very much for listening. We very much appreciate the time you spent with us, and we look forward in talking to you again the next quarter. Thanks everybody.