Earnings Labs

3M Company (MMM)

Q1 2018 Earnings Call· Tue, Apr 24, 2018

$145.48

-0.20%

Key Takeaways · AI generated
AI summary not yet generated for this transcript. Generation in progress for older transcripts; check back soon, or browse the full transcript below.

Same-Day

-1.14%

1 Week

-3.04%

1 Month

-0.86%

vs S&P

-4.59%

Transcript

Bruce Jermeland

Operator

Good morning. Welcome to 3M’s 2018 Outlook Meeting. We appreciate everyone joining us here in the room this morning, and then also everyone on webcast. I’m Bruce Jermeland, Director of Investor Relations for 3M, and we appreciate you spending the morning with us. Before we begin the day, I wanted to highlight our upcoming events for 2018. So, you can get them on the calendar. These are earnings call dates for next year. Here is today’s presenters. We will kick it off with Inge, and then we will also wrap it up with Nick. In between, you also have the opportunity to hear from Mike Roman, H.C. Shin, Jon Lindekugel, Eric Hammes, and Steve Shafer. Here is our schedule for the morning. If we do end up running ahead of time, we’ll stay on -- we’ll stay ahead of schedule. For those on the webcast, we will plan on a break around about 9:30 and wrap up no later than noon. If we are ahead of schedule, we’ll have about 45 minutes for Q&A, following the formal presentation this morning. Before we begin, I want to draw your attention to our forward-looking statement. During today’s meeting, we’ll make certain predictive statements that reflect our current views about 3M’s future, performance and financial results. These statements are based on certain assumptions and expectations of future events that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Item 1A of our most recent Form 10-K lists some of the most important risk factors that could cause actual results to differ from our predictions. Before I turn it over to Inge, I also wanted to highlight that our guidance this morning excludes yesterday’s announcement of the divestiture of the Communication Markets business. So that is not included in the numbers that you saw this morning. And then, also, our guidance this morning excludes any pending potential tax reform. So, I wanted to make sure everybody was clear on that before we started. With that, I’ll turn it over to Inge. And thank you again for joining us.

Inge Thulin

Analyst

Thank you, Bruce, and good morning, everyone. I hope this is a good tradition, at least for me. I feel that I’m coming home just before Christmas and meet all of you. And what we’d like to do here this morning is first of all give you an overview relative to what we have done the last five years to six years, in order to prepare our self for very strong 2018. We’ll also show you the evidence of the result, not only in 2017, but based on what we have done the five years and why we are very well positioned for 2018 and moving forward on the five-year plan. So, our Playbook is working and we are delivering in our key metrics, and you will see that from Nick Gangestad, later today. We are well positioned for 2018. And when you see the outlook for 2018, we have a 3% to 5% total Company organic growth guidance; we have 6% to 10% EPS growth. And Nick will take you through all those details in the end of the meeting. Now, let me make a couple of comments relative to how we have built the enterprise to now be very well positioned for 2018. It started back in 2012 where we articulated the 3M Vision and launched six corporate entities. They are still all in place and are now well embedded in the total enterprise, and we are executing on that. We also established a very robust portfolio management process. And as you have seen, that has step-by-sep moved out forward that we today have probably the best ever portfolio in place that we ever had, and I will make some comments later relative to that. During year of 2013 to 2015, we enhanced our capital deployment plan; we…

Mike Roman

Analyst

All right. Thank you, Inge, and good morning. It is my pleasure to be here today to present our outlook for growth in 2018, and what our global businesses will be doing to deliver that growth. Growth that again outpaces our markets, growth that delivers on the promise of our 3M Playbook and growth that creates extraordinary value for our customers and shareholders. Here is an outline of what I’ll present today. I’ll start with an overview of our five businesses, their outlook for growth and the key priorities that they will be executing to deliver that growth. I’ll then share some insights into what it is that uniquely positions us to create differentiated value as we move ahead. I’ll share several examples of high-growth, high-value product platforms that will deliver growth in 2018 and beyond. And then I’ll wrap up with the summary of how we’re positioned to win in 2018. Our Playbook is working, and you’ll see throughout my presentation how each of our businesses is utilizing this Playbook to deliver growth in 2018. You’ll see how their strategic intent is closely aligned to our vision for the total Company and you’ll see how their growth priorities are directly connected to the strategies in the three key levers you see pictured here. The three key levers, portfolio management, investing innovation and business transformation continue to have a huge impact on our businesses, helping us to drive growth of our markets and create extraordinary value for customers and shareholders alike. The Playbook is the key to our success in 2017, 2018 and beyond. Here again, you see our five businesses and their outlook for growth. Our healthcare business is delivering very strong growth in the second half of 2017, and we expect that to continue into 2018 with an…

Steve Shafer

Analyst

Good morning. As Mike mentioned, my name is Steve Shafer, I am the Vice President for 3M’s Greater China Area. And I have three topics I’ll talk to you today about China. The first is our profile for you, why we see China as an attractive market opportunity and give you a little bit of detail about what our business looks like today in China. Second, I’ll share with you some detail about our how our Playbook is enabling us to win in China. And I’ll conclude with a brief financial summary outlook of 2018. So, I’m sure, most of you can appreciate the size of China, 1.4 billion people, forming the second largest economy in the world. You may be less familiar however with 3M’s presence in China. So, I’ll share with you some facts. We’ve been in China for a very long time since 1984. As Inge mentioned, we were the first wholly owned foreign enterprise setup outside of the Shenzhen economic zone. We’re now over $3 billion in sales and have over 6,000 employees. We also have a very strong manufacturing base in China with nine manufacturing plants to primarily serve our Chinese customers. Most global companies see China as an attractive market opportunity and we agree. We think the large market in China plays well to our portfolio of businesses and technologies. Just to give you a sense of how large China is, one half of all global ecommerce sales happens in China. Over 85% of the PC and smartphone capacity for the world sits in China. But, it’s also very dynamic market, one that requires you to move fast, but it creates the opportunity to change the game quickly. Just to give you a sense of that dynamic nature, manufacturing in China is moving very…

H.C. Shin

Analyst

Thank you, Steve, and good morning, again. So, today, I am going to highlight three key areas that are enabling growth and productivity for 3M. As you see here, those are business transformation, supply chain roadmap, and our continuous investment in research and development. First, I would like to mention again that 3M Playbook is driving everything we do. It enables our growth, it enables our productivity. I think that balance between growth and productivity, those are very, very critical. They will ensure for additional growth and profit going forward. So, let’s start with business transformation. Our business transformation journey began in 2011, so that was some six years ago. It was not meant to be just a system deployment. There are some fundamental transformations that we are driving as a Company for the last six years. And that changed everything in the Company and how we do business with our customers. And the fundamental changes are two things that we want you to remember. First, global processes have been standardized and optimized. First time in our history we have now one single global business processes in almost everything we do, and that’s quite significant. Second, we have been implementing our global ERP system for last few years. What that does is that it gives us complete data access capability pretty much on a real time basis across geography, across function and across all businesses. So, if you combine those two, they are very powerful combination, and that forms the basis of our productivity that forms the basis of low gross coming forward. So, if you think about portfolio work that we have done streamlining our businesses on top of that that’s why the scale and leverage is possible, not only supply chain but in all business processes. So, combining…

Jon Lindekugel

Analyst

All right. We will get started. Good morning. I am Jon Lindekugel, Senior Vice President of 3M Supply Chain. I am pleased to be here this morning to update you on our supply chain efforts. In March 2016, we presented key elements to our approach to supply chain including investments in footprint optimization and disruptive technology. Today, I will present our strategy and update you on both of those initiatives. Here is my agenda. I will begin by outlining how supply chain provides a competitive advantage for 3M. I will cover our strategy for extending that advantage forward and I will talk about how we operationalize the strategy through high impact, global supply chain initiatives. As you’ve seen our Playbook is working and supply chain is an integral part of that Playbook. It’s in our vision, producing and delivering 3M solutions to every company, every home and every life. It’s embedded in every one of our six strategies from gaining profitable market share to delivering superior levels of operational excellence. And supply chain utilizes all three of our key levers to create value for our customers and shareholders alike. Our supply chain capabilities create a competitive advantage for the Company. And building and leveraging our fundamental strengths are basic to our business model. We use our 46 technology platforms to innovate new products and then we deploy those technologies in manufacturing. You heard Inge highlight this morning the 25% of our patents, a third of our technology platforms relate directly to what we do on our production floor. We leverage our proprietary process technology, scale and vertical integration to deliver the lowest unit cost in most of our product categories. We use our global capabilities to serve our global customers in every region of the world. And our iconic brand…

Eric Hammes

Analyst

Thank you, Jon. Good morning, everybody. It’s a great pleasure to be here today and to have the opportunity to update all of you on the progress we’re making with business transformation. Over the next short while, you’ll see that we are further enhancing our customers’ experience with 3M and our ability to grow. We are continually improving our internal processes and efficiencies, and we’re increasing our ability to reach the marketplace in broader and in different ways. Throughout the morning, you’ve seen how 3M’s Playbook is working. And business transformation is very much a key element of that Playbook. We help to enable our business leaders to more actively manage the portfolio. And when we bring technology and solutions to our customers and employees, we also help to improve the highest return on our R&D. Business transformation is an integral lever at 3M and one that further enhances the fundamental strength of 3M Company. As you’ve heard and seen in previous conferences, we measure the success of business transformation through the eyes of our customers. And when done well, we create the ability for our customers and 3M to grow in a partnered fashion. We can further streamline the buying experience. We can help to create easier access to the full breadth of 3M’s innovative portfolio. And we increase our ability to reach the broader marketplace in new and in different ways. But we can also optimize end-to-end service, which enables sustainable productivity at 3M. Our customers can feel this in a very real way while we can also improve within 3M from being more connected, increasing our accuracy and very importantly, achieving operations at scale. So with that as a backdrop, let’s take a moment to look at how the initiative of business transformation has evolved. We’ve learned…

Nick Gangestad

Analyst

Thanks, Eric, and good morning, everyone. Throughout the morning in the prepared comments, you’ve been hearing about our five-year plan and how we are executing on that plan. I will close out the prepared comment portion of the morning before we head to Q&A, and I will first touch on how are we progressing on that journey of our five-year plan. Second, I will update you on our expected strong close to 2017. And then, I will spend the majority of the time detailing out our expectations for 2018. So, to start. In March of last year, we laid out our long-term objectives for the Company and we shared at that time a plan of how the organization was focused on aggressive yet realistic goals. That Playbook is working and you can see through two years of the plan that we are delivering on the financial objectives that we laid out. And before I address the outlook for 2018, let me provide a few comments as we close out 2017. Overall, 2017 has been a strong year, even better than we expected entering the year. As discussed on the third quarter earnings call, we expect full year organic growth to be between 4% and 5%, and we expect earnings per share to be between $9 and $9.10. We expect to be in the top half of that range for both of those guidance figures. Also, on the earnings call in October, we laid out four planning items that will impact the fourth quarter. Those are included here as a reminder. Operationally, we are tracking to our expectations, well at the same time investing in the business, investing in R&D, investing in CapEx to drive our business model that enables us to grow, both now and into the future. Cash flow…

Bruce Jermeland

Operator

All right, first question, Andrew Obin.

Q - Andrew Obin

Analyst

Hi. How are you? I’ll ask one question but three parts to it. So, you talked a lot about internal process optimization and you would think that you will see significant reduction in lead times internally as you simplify your processes and internal supply chains. So, I guess three questions. First, where are you versus your targets when you sort of embarked on this journey? Second, what does it mean for your free cash flows going forward beyond the targets that you have set? And finally, things are really good right now, but what does it mean about 3M’s performance in the next downturn as you reduce internal lead times and complexity? Thank you.

Nick Gangestad

Analyst

Andrew, let me take that and others can add on, as they see fit for this. In terms of business transformation and all the things we’ve been doing to optimize our performance, from a earnings per share standpoint, we’ve always known that we will get benefits year-after-year, not quite linear but very close to linear. And the progression we’ve seen between ‘16, ‘17 and now what we’re projecting for ‘18, we’re right on track to be delivering the operating income benefits that we expected. As part of that, we also said that we expect to take about a $0.5 billion of capital out of our supply chain. That we have always known will be much more backend loaded in the five-year plan that we laid out, because much of the savings there we need to have a more complete set of our supply chain in place in order to be fully realizing what we’re expecting for the supply chain inventory value realization. We continue to see that on track. So, part of your question is over the five years what do we see with free cash flow conversion. So through the first couple of years, we’re right around 100% free cash flow conversion. We’re guiding right now 90 to 100% for 2018. And that’s a couple of things going on. First of all, there’s growth going on. And we’re stepping up our investment in CapEx both to having a capacity to be delivering on the growth that we are experiencing and that we expect to experience, but then also working capital investments with that growth we think in 2018 will also contribute to a 90 to a 100% free cash flow conversion. As I look to the complete five-year, we still see ourselves very much aligned around a 100% as an expectation. And the real kicker there in the last couple of years as a plan will be realizing more of that $500 million of supply chain value realization on taking inventory out of our supply chain as we get closer to having more of our entire footprint on our new transformed business process. And Andrew, there was a third part of the question that I’m frankly forgetting.

Andrew Obin

Analyst

Yes. Just as you simplify your internal supply chain and lead times, historically 3M has been very responsive in terms of downturn but it would take quarter or two for things to recalibrate. So, how do you think Company will behave differently if and when the next downturn comes, given what you’re doing internally?

Nick Gangestad

Analyst

So, scenario planning for all kinds of economic scenarios is part of what we do in running this Company, making sure we don’t get too far ahead of ourselves in any type of one particular investment that we can react. In the event of a downturn, part of our reaction is reevaluating some of the investments we’re doing, where are things we need to scale back, any things we need to pause on. We’ve shown -- demonstrated through multiple business cycles, the capacity to adjust our business model down and are spending down when needed when we see that happening.

Andrew Obin

Analyst

Any changes given what you’re doing, right? I mean, if you simplify internal supply chain, it should give you a lot more flexibility than historically…

Nick Gangestad

Analyst

As always, part of what we’re doing, Andrew, it is giving us more flexibility. And I think what we’re doing in transforming business process only enhances our flexibility going forward.

Bruce Jermeland

Operator

Andy Kaplowitz.

Andy Kaplowitz

Analyst

Nick, you mentioned positive pricing for 2018. And I think, you’ll end the year in ‘17 probably closer to flat, maybe up a little bit. So, maybe break down the pricing guidance in the sense that are there specific businesses where the environment is better industrial or healthcare versus are you also being proactive? I know, you guys have talked in the past about whether it’s discounting, rebidding, are you -- is 2018 different than 2017 as you think about that?

Nick Gangestad

Analyst

Yes. Andy, when I compare ‘17 to ‘18, ‘17 is a year where our price growth will be approaching flat, and what’s going to change on the margin to be back to our historic pricing growth range of 30 to 50 basis points. There’s three places I am seeing the most marked change from what we’ve experienced in 2017. First of all, geographically, the U.S. will likely be the area that has the most -- the most significant change from the price growth we saw this year to what we’re seeing in 2018. And from a business perspective, our industrial and our safety and graphics businesses are the two that we see the most change from our price growth trajectory where we are this year to what we’ll be seeing next year.

Andy Kaplowitz

Analyst

Inge, I wanted to ask you about China. When you look at your guidance of 10% to 15% growth in ‘18 versus ‘17, that’s off of double-digit growth I think in ‘17, so, difficult comparisons yet that kind of growth. You talked a lot about the megatrends. But if I look at 3M in the past, 3M, as you said has been in China for a long time but never really had this kind of growth. So, how sustainable do you think this growth is moving forward? I mean, these megatrends feel like they are here to stay. So, should we be thinking that 3M could go faster in China for longer here as we move forward?

Inge Thulin

Analyst

Yes, it should. And we have had very fast growth in China in the past as well. Of course that was a smaller base, but we’ve been up and growing very, very fast in China for many years. And I think what is happening now is a couple of things. First of all, our capability is much, much better and our portfolio is much more aligned to what is happening in China. There is a shift in China if you think about the industrial sector from what they are shifting step by step from try to copy and do things slightly better and copying versus doing things differently, and try to use technologies in order to develop new things that make a significant difference in the market. That is a shift today versus 5, 10 years ago, that plays very well to our capabilities by definition. And there’s also multiple companies that being purchased by Chinese owners that now start to operate much more in China. So, that piece is very positive for us, based on our portfolio, how we can serve them. That is what we may -- that’s a lot of it going to the local market but lot is also exported. Then, you think about the last two pieces of their transition and economy in terms of retail consumer and healthcare. We have shifted a lot the last five years in order to focus on that. And we have made significant investment in our non-woven technology around air in China specifically. We saw that early, I would say. We made a corporate investment around that platform; that made investment in China in together with what we’re doing in St. Paul. And we made investment both in the research and development, and we made investment in terms of…

Bruce Jermeland

Operator

Deane Dray?

Deane Dray

Analyst

Thank you. Good morning. I was hoping you could comment on the pipeline of potential divestitures ahead and timing. And then for Nick, I know you’re not including this $0.40 gain coming through in 2018. But, what are you considering in terms of potential options against this gain, potential restructuring and are you concerned at all about the optics of having any of this gain fall through to reported earnings for 2018?

Inge Thulin

Analyst

Maybe I start with the portfolio management. And I think there’s key element of what we have done the last five years. And I think, as you know, when you start to move your portfolio to better place, it takes you some time before you ending up there. And I think that was key element to identify first where every business stood inside of 3M. That would be the 2012 when we had entered Heartland, Push Forward in transition and under strategic review, was an important element. And then, when you overlaid the four fundamental strengths of 3M in terms of technology, manufacturing, global reach and brand equity, when you looked upon them, it became very clear which one you should continue to invest in and some you couldn’t fix them yourself, you should exit. The one that we have divested during the last couple of years or three to four years, been very clear that they were not in the top end of the shot and they couldn’t leverage more than 1, 1.5 of the four leverages or fundamentals that we had in the Company. So, by definition, long-term, you couldn’t win in them if you were 3M. And number two, they were not strategically important for us. So, I think that way of us driving it, have been very good and we have had a good roadmap of how we have done it. As we announced yesterday, the communication business, I would say, we have now gone from 2.5 billion in that corner under strategic review to basically couple of hundred of millions that now are only product lines in some of the bigger divisions. The communication business that we announced yesterday is in my mind the last standing business that was a business that did not really -- will capitalize on these financial strengths for that business into 3M and/or fundamental strengths as an enterprise. And then, Nick, you can talk about...

Nick Gangestad

Analyst

Yes. And Deane, at the point this closes, when it does close, we expect a couple of things to happen. Of course, there’ll be a gain on transaction that will occur, a gain resulting from that sale. But, when we divest of a business that large, there are also stranded costs that are left in the Company. So, we expect, anticipate that we will be taking some actions to address stranded costs, and that’s why we’re quoting a $0.40 net of actions to address those costs. We’ll be announcing that. We’ll also have some impact depending on when this is in the year of what this does, as far as divested income of what is the income from that business that will not be in our results, going forward. So, we’ll disclose all that when that happens. In terms of the optics of it, as always, we’ll include that in our results and we’ll be very transparent about what’s included in those results. And we’re doing it not around earnings, but we’re doing it around trying to set up a portfolio that we think is the right portfolio for 3M.

Bruce Jermeland

Operator

Jeff Sprague?

Jeff Sprague

Analyst

Thank you. Good morning. I just wanted to follow up on that point, Nick or Inge. So, the $0.40 is net of kind of cleaning up the aftermath of the divestiture. Are there things that are clearly visible on the board for you to do that perhaps accelerates some of what we’ve heard today or anything clearly come to mind from a restructuring standpoint that could be chunky and expensive?

Nick Gangestad

Analyst

Not really, Jeff. What we have and what we’ve laid out there that encompasses what we’re looking at. The other piece you may be talking about as we’ve guided our footprint actions, there are some footprint actions that are continuing into 2018 that is incorporated into the guidance that we laid out.

Jeff Sprague

Analyst

And then, just further on capital deployment, you’re not alone in having this high class problem that you’ve got capital deployed; you’ve got a highly valued stock; your targets are highly valued. How do you navigate through this to be careful that we don’t look back a year or two or three from now and we found that we hurt returns because we were buying things too expensively? And give us a little color on how you’re making sure you guard your return profile that you’re expecting when you do M&A.

Nick Gangestad

Analyst

Yes. As you know, we’ve laid out over a number of years what is our plan around both, our capital structure and what we’re moving our capital structure to and how we’re allocating capital. And in that, we laid out some broad ranges. But, I think another equally important component to that is the concept of patience and discipline. And throughout our metrics, as we look about how we deploy that capital, we are looking at what are the right strategic fits as well as the financial returns on them. And we remain disciplined in 3M at making sure that they’re going to generate the right return and sometimes that requires more patience than we probably originally guided when we laid out that plan.

Jeff Sprague

Analyst

One unrelated one. I thought perhaps you might even do a bigger accelerated pension contribution or something to kind of put that to bed, given kind of your excess liquidity, any thoughts on that?

Nick Gangestad

Analyst

I’ve laid out $300 million to $500 million to our pension. And all of these are not assuming a tax reform. If tax reform were to happen, we will update guidance both for our earnings estimate and what that will do as well as if there are any minor changes we would have on capital deployment. Pension could be one of those items.

Bruce Jermeland

Operator

Scott Davis?

Scott Davis

Analyst

Thanks. Just following up on that, Nick. I mean, had a chance I’m sure to look at the House and the Senate bills. Can you just give us a sense of what you think magnitude of impact on tax and cash is?

Nick Gangestad

Analyst

Yes. Scott, this is going to be an unsatisfying answer to you that while it’s still a bill and something we are working through -- that’s being worked through in the government, we are not going to talk a lot of specifics on it. The direction that we have been advocating for years, both the House and the Senate version make a lot of progress towards that. We are pleased with those versions. We think they are beneficial to 3M. The specifics it would mean both from a transition tax and then to a longer term impact will share that when all the details are worked out. And we are ready to be sharing that at that time, Scott.

Scott Davis

Analyst

And then, can you give us a little bit of color on the sale of the communications business? I mean, Corning’s wanted this business from you guys for a long time. But, what was the catalyst to move you this time?

Inge Thulin

Analyst

Well, I think, as we said earlier, we are working this in a process. And I think that’s a business that I have looked upon over time with question of do we really have relevance and would we like to get relevance with investment that is needed in that space. It was a very good business for us, but it was by definition, not totally global for us. And it was difficult for us to get scale as we move forward. And given the opportunities we have inside of our Company to invest another areas is maybe always we come short relative to those discussions. It’s also part of our EEBG business where we have had a lot of focus in order to make sure we get a very relevant portfolio and get people focused on what they should do in that space. When we went through our process from a strategic perspective, it looked like Corning was one of multiple companies that will be able to take care of this asset in a way that would be beneficial for both for them, for our employees and what could be done with that business moving forward. And as I said, also Nick said early in terms of growth rate and margins, they were not up to deliver log 3M’s average. And in that case, you look upon it and said, would you like to have a business that you see yourself difficult as to build out real scale and leverage and be relevant to your customers when you have those other wonderful opportunities inside of 3M. So, the timing came in a discussion and we decided to move forward at this point in time. And I’m personally very pleased that is ending up with Corning, based on the commitment they have made to us relative to what they would do with the business, what they would do with the people et cetera. So, I think they will be more successful in that regime and with that owner than they had been with 3M. So, you’ve seen what we have done with our portfolio. We are committed to certain spaces and when we are, we make investment, we like to be relevant and we build around it. And I didn’t see myself that -- their communication piece was one that we could really over time build relevant position for us.

Bruce Jermeland

Operator

Steve Tusa?

Steve Tusa

Analyst

Thanks. Can you just talk about within the segments, maybe healthcare as well as consumer, what is kind of accelerating next year to get either the high end or beyond for those two businesses, the 6% and the 4%.

Inge Thulin

Analyst

Well, I will let Mike Roman make those comments. But, I think, you look upon those two businesses specifically, we have a higher growth rate and we are delivering that specifically. But, Mike would give some comments relative to what is then in order to come closer to the high end.

Mike Roman

Analyst

I think you saw in my presentation some of the growth priorities that we’re driving in each of those businesses. And those are not things that we’re starting now going into 2018, they’ve been underway, as we come through 2017. So, in the case of healthcare, investing in developing economies, and talked a little bit about it relative to China. This is driving strong growth for us and adding additional broad base of business opportunity for us to what we’ve established in developed economies around the world. And we see our broader portfolio delivering strong growth as we come to the second half of the year and the current market opportunities for developed, and adding that developing pushes us to that outlook in that 4 to 6 range for next year. Consumer is -- also got that accelerated growth in developing economies that’s been adding strong growth in the second half of the year. And a couple of other dynamics that I touched on are strengthening as we come through 2017 and we see them going into 2018 and that is this home improvement business that’s been a strong leader of growth for us, and it’s not just a U.S. home improvement center kind of model, it’s building out globally. And we see expanded opportunities in this -- in the improving economies and the do-it-for-me customers around the world. And our innovation is targeting those and we’re getting strong growth from that. And then, this digital commerce, this leadership in digital commerce, we are a very strong partner to digital commerce plays around the world with our portfolio, our brands, and we’re getting category-leading growth in those categories. And so, digital’s a big part of that. So, we see those as very good momentum as go into next year. And we’ll build upon the growth that we saw in the second half.

Steve Tusa

Analyst

Just remind me, how fast did you guys grow as a company in China this year, when all said and done, when the books are closed in 2017, what’s your organic growth in China this year for total 3M for 2017?

Nick Gangestad

Analyst

Will be around 15%.

Steve Tusa

Analyst

And then, just one last one for Nick, you said normal, pricing that’s normal for 3M. Just remind us what that means within the zero to one or whatever it is, where you think you’re going to be?

Nick Gangestad

Analyst

Stephen, we look at our price growth over time and pull out FX movements where we adjust up price in relation to a strong U.S. dollar in some developing markets. When we pull that out, we find that we pretty consistently have 30 to 50 basis points of price growth power and we see 2018; that’s the zone we’re going to be in.

Inge Thulin

Analyst

Just to come back to your question, Steve, first, relative to consumer and healthcare. If you think about the way that the economies are moving, our pie or portfolio for both consumer and healthcare is smaller in developing economies. So, that’s where you see a lot of growth coming. You see consumer specifically in terms of doing business through e is actually a good opportunity for us in terms of disrupting channels in India, in West Europe and eventually in China. So, there’s good upside for us in those businesses. And consumer, the real big base for us is actually United States. So, big opportunities in international.

Bruce Jermeland

Operator

Rob McCarthy?

Rob McCarthy

Analyst

Two questions as a follow-up to some of the questions that were asked this morning. One, within healthcare, can you talk about dental trends, because there has been a lot going in that market and your outlook for 2018? And then, in the context of acquisitions and this part B of one. Could you talk about how you feel about that business whether that’s related business as a whole in terms of core to 3M, and I’m sure it is but just maybe you can walk through the exercise a little bit, and how you feel about dental? And then, the second question is just around China and distribution in general. Is there opportunities to partner with folks that perhaps have pretty good local brand distribution? I give up a specific example A.O. Smith in China with its water heaters, it’s building into water treatment air purifications as just an example of potentially go to market, because I know distribution in this environment you probably have to be a more creative about.

Inge Thulin

Analyst

Starting with oral care, if you like. So, we like that business very much. We are in fact doing very well. And when you look upon that business, I think what the challenges have been lately for the industry is restorative products in United States. So, if you really start to segment the business both businesswise and geographically is coming down to restorative products in United States. It’s a very good business for us. We are leading in terms of innovation, research and development, and new product introductions. That is the model for us. Is there some disruptiveness in the channels? Yes, there are, but you have that everywhere. And it’s coming back to, I think Mike talked about earlier, is important that you focus on your end customers; and in this case, it is on the dentist industry by definition. So, I think it’s maybe some consolidation would come, but I think it’s important that you stay close to what you are all about. And for us, that is material science development. So, a good business, we are committed to it, we like the business as such. In terms of China in different ways, go to market -- you talked about channels. I think that’s an evolution as you go; that’s an evolution as you go. I think all strength is very much that as you know that we are very much spec in the designing, by definition; that is a direct business for us. Then, if other opportunity is coming in terms of channels, then we will evaluate that at the time, as we move forward. But, I think the important thing again that you yourself -- I’ll not use the word control, but you manage the way you go to market, that you would make a strategically important decision who do you play with that you make strategically important decision of what is your strategy in order to grow. And in my view for everything we do, it’s the telescope that is important. You can go wrong, if you use the microscope. You can be pushed to do deals that is short-term beneficial for you. You have to have a long plan relative to what you do. And that’s the same. If it’s China or it’s the United States with some consolidation of channels, some new players coming in from overseas, you have to make strategic decisions relative to how will you commercialize, with or without them. In some cases, it’s without them. So, you have to make sure you understand what your long-term goal is for the enterprise and how you would like to execute your plan. But, I think -- that [indiscernible] partnership is increasingly important in most things that enterprises are doing, right, because you cannot do everything yourself over time, but you need to think it through so you make the right decision.

Bruce Jermeland

Operator

John Inch?

John Inch

Analyst

Good morning. So, Nick, the free cash conversion in ‘18 guides a little light versus last year, it’s sub 100. Is that just the elevated CapEx? But the -- it looks like the CapEx is still 4.5% to 5% of sales. So, I am just wondering why -- don’t you think 100% free cash conversion which is your long term target is the target this year?

Nick Gangestad

Analyst

The two single biggest components changing that are contributing to that range of 90% to 100% for 2018 are both growth related. One is working capital investments that we’re expecting to be growing in 2018 with the growth. And that’s happening because we’re not quite yet getting to the value realization that we’re expecting from business transformation in 2018 related to the 0.5 billion of working capital. So, part of it’s growth. The second part of it is our uptick in CapEx. Those two pieces are the two largest. There’re other more minor things but those are the two biggest impacting that in 2018.

John Inch

Analyst

So, on the CapEx, Nick, remind me what is the uptick for, because it’s the same percent of…

Nick Gangestad

Analyst

So, it’s -- we’re going from approximately $1.4 billion this year to a range of $1.5 billion to $1.7 billion in 2018. Two, biggest things that are driving that increase, one is increasing in capital to be manufacturing the goods for this higher demand; and then, the second is investments in the disruptive technology. So, you saw Jon talking about this morning that we are accelerating some of those investments in CapEx related to automation and disruptive technologies.

John Inch

Analyst

The electronics and energy, the 1% to 4% organic guide seems very conservative. Last year, we talked about the impact of OLED. Is that still a significant factor in terms of why that business has not given the strength of short cycle, China, et cetera, growing a little bit faster than that maybe you could just put some numbers around that?

Nick Gangestad

Analyst

So, a year ago, John you heard us talk about that we felt each year the OLED conversion -- the conversion from LCD and LED to OLED would reduce our revenue between $50 million and $150 million a year that that -- that’s what we said a year ago. What you’re seeing in 2017 is we’re getting enough penetration into OLED devices that we’re not seeing that headwind materialize. And in 2018, if there is a headwind, we expect it to be on the low end or below that, and that’s part of the guidance. When you look at our growth this year, we’re estimating approximately 10% growth, part of that John is being driven by the amount of growth that we had in 2016. We were down organically about 8% in 2016 and now we’re -- part of that is a rebound in 2017 with the 10%. 2018 is a bit of more normalization in the supply chain and demand there.

John Inch

Analyst

And then, just lastly for me. Global economy, Inge, is very strong right now relative to certainly where we started the year. And I think you are big short-cycled company, your targets for top-line seem very reasonable. The 6% to 8% EPS growth, is there some gating factor as to why 3M can’t be a double-digit sustained EPS grower, because you’re buying back shares, you’re doing sort of all the right things, what’s that gating factor? It’s not really apparent, that your margins are already very robust than it’s sort of hard to push them higher or is -- what -- maybe you could just shed some light on what you think the…

Inge Thulin

Analyst

I think, maybe it’s tough to push them higher by definition. But, I think that what we can do is of course get the efficiency in organization. And we have -- when we have talked about EPS growth, we have talked about that in line with other things, as we move forward, as you know. But, when you look upon the economy around the world where you started your comments, it is better today than when we started as we entered the year and I think we see that in our result generally speaking. I think, as we lay out plans, we are always making sure that we lay out the plan that we are pretty sure that we can meet and hopefully exceed. And as you have seen, as we have laid out our EPS over time, we have improved. And I think as we execute the plan, we have to see which pieces are coming together in order for us eventually to kind of where you would like us to be, which is much higher.

Bruce Jermeland

Operator

Martin Sankey?

Martin Sankey

Analyst

Thank you. Inge, earlier this year, and you discussed the outlay of a $100 million or so for accelerated commercialization of new products. Could you discuss with us, how does that work out, where are the successes, where are the failures? And what might we see going forward? Is that -- would that program be repeated or you didn’t like what you saw and not do it? And then, would accelerated commercialization investment be a use for the $0.40 gain next year?

Inge Thulin

Analyst

Well, first of all, if we go back to where we started, we’ve put in $104 million, $105 million something we core search where we identify certain program on the corporate level where we have to accelerate our investment in order to grow that business on a global scale. DACH and we said we expect 50 to 150 basis-point -- 50 to 100 basis-point of growth. And I always said, 50 plus 100 is a 150 for me, so we should expect more. I think you see the growth, we estimate to see in growth of 5%. Clearly an impact is coming from core search and investment we have done. I don’t see any disappointment in the investment that we did. Now, if you have an enterprise like 3M and others I’m sure, one thing for you is to make sure you prioritize your investment as you move ahead. Sometimes that’s difficult to do when you just run one division you focus on every quarter in order to make sure that you deliver the result on the plan. That was why we decided on the corporate level to give value into the businesses with additional investments for those programs. As we go into 2018, we will not do that because I think that every business now recognized with those investments, they should be able to do it themselves based on prioritization they would do in the business. So, the answer is the growth is coming, that’s good; the answer is it’ll not continue to be supported with additional investment on a corporate level, it will now be done in each business group and in each division as we move forward.

Bruce Jermeland

Operator

Yes, Jeff.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Thanks, I just had a couple of questions on the growth priorities, couple of them that you laid. First on automotive electrification. Can you give us a sense of what your content per vehicle is and how you view the entitlement? And I’m sure that entitlement is changing with automotive technology. And then, the second part of that. Is there inherently a larger content opportunity in EVs for 3M or are you agnostic to that?

Inge Thulin

Analyst

I’ll let Mike talk about the specific. But I would like to make one comment that is important relative to 3M in this space. We are very, very good and big supplier in automotive. We are the world-leading in road safety, and we have our electronic and energy business. Those three components is going right into these trend moving forward. You can see the addressable market is $6 billion, growing very rapidly, 8% to 10% probably. If we pull those things together and we have no formed special organization, here is big opportunity for us where we believe that we can provide something for that industry that is very difficult for anyone else to do because most if not all are very fragmented in those three segments. So, it’s actually one of the bigger growth platforms over time that we see in 3M, based on what we can do. And then, Mike will talk about what we see specifically in terms of the vehicles et cetera.

Mike Roman

Analyst

Yes. Maybe I’ll start with our automotive business today. We continue to develop new solutions in advance, applications for the internal combustion engine. Many of those are going to play in the electric vehicle. Assembly methods and light weighting kinds of technologies and acoustic insulation, all of those are going to be important in electric vehicle, in some cases more important. Acoustics will take on new dimensions and there will be opportunities to expand our number of applications as we move ahead. And then, as I talked about and Inge laid out, we bring, not just our automotive base but we bring our electronics materials and our transportation safety. And those are bringing together new applications and new combinations of technology that can help our electric vehicle customers solve some of their problems. And so, we will play bigger in the powertrain electric vehicle; will play bigger in terms of areas like thermal management and installation in the electric vehicle and in battery designs and assembly methods and so on. Lightweighting will be amplified in its importance. There will be new assembly methods. And then, electronic materials will play an increasing role in electric vehicle. There is a shift to a higher value in automobiles up there, build materials being electronics, but it’s going to be even amplified and electrical vehicles. And so, we see that as opportunities. And as I mentioned, we are early designs, we are early days --in terms of percentage of the overall build that is electric vehicles, but early designs, we are at a much higher value per vehicle than we are in our base automotive business. And we see those opportunities continuing to grow out of that. That combined capability we bring from our three different bases that we bring into this transportation safety, automotive and electronics.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Just wondering just to follow up on that, can you define much bigger, are we talking 50% 2X, 3X? And then, separately, just unrelated, it’s also just a little unclear to me what you’re calling out as the opportunity in automation and abrasives, what exactly you are doing new and different there. So, if you could elaborate on that?

Mike Roman

Analyst

Well, just maybe to start with automotive. Again, it is early days. So, we see, like I say, a much bigger opportunity in the powertrain than we have in internal combustion. So that’s one of the areas that we’ll advance at. We continue to drive penetration. We are relatively small part of the building materials and the automobile today; we’ll be a bigger part as we start out in automotive electrification. I am not sure what the multiple will be as we move ahead. When I was talking about kind of examples of where we can go in higher value spaces across our industrial portfolio, one of the areas is robotics are playing a big role. Robotics, there was a tipping point for robotics and welding. We’re seeing some similar signs, as you look at abrasives and automation and factories. And that kind of robotics, automation coming into the factory requires very precise performance from its abrasives. And so, our precision engineered abrasives is uniquely positioned to fit into that. And we’ve been working in partnership and really rolling out some new designs that really optimize that robotics application. So, it’s a little bit early days there too but it’s moving ahead and we’re uniquely positioned with those precision engineered abrasives to take advantage of it.

Bruce Jermeland

Operator

Andy Kaplowitz?

Andy Kaplowitz

Analyst

I just wanted to follow up on electronics and energy for a second in a sense that someone asked about it being conservative guidance. But, we’re talking about the high value add business that you have and still sort of early days. If I look at the 1% to 4%, how much of the growth in 2018, maybe in 2017, 10% is -- how much is of the high value added business is contributing to that 10% growth? Because when I look at the 1% to 4%, things like automotive electrification, grid type work should be boosting that 1% to 4%, you’re penetrating Chinese OEMs. I asked you the question about China, you didn’t grow double digits. E&E is big Chinese exposure. So, it seems kind of conservative when you kind of pull it all together, but you know…

Inge Thulin

Analyst

Yes. Well, if we go back to I think in March 2016 when talked about 0% to 4%, I remember some of you really thought that that was very, very conservative when we talk about 0%. And I agreed, if you remember, I agreed to that. You would like to have a faster growth in that business. We have done a tremendous work in order to focus that portfolio the way we like to have it. And what you see is one thing when we report every quarter. The thing that is going on as we shift the portfolios, what Mike showed on that chart with a bigger market, going 1% to 3% and smaller market that is going 10% to 15%, that is where the shift is going. And we have talked about that internally, in terms of should we guide differently, but we have decided at this point in time to wait and make sure that we really feel the traction of what we’re doing. I am very pleased with the portfolio work that have gone on in that business, which is for me the most important thing that you type of feel that the action that have been taking and putting you in the right direction moving forward. And I hope that we can update our outlook in that business rather sooner than later. And we have had a very good year this year. And I think it would continue but we have also to make sure that we’re very realistic as we roll into 2018 specifically. I think that will be a year that we would get answer to what is the real growth rate, with our new portfolio and the way we’re focusing that business as we move ahead?

Andy Kaplowitz

Analyst

And just one more, I guess unrelated. Nick, like, when you -- the March 2016 Analyst Day, you introduced a curve for business transformation where you talked about pretty big acceleration in 2019 and 2020 versus 2018, if I remember correctly. And so, like, it’s true that your margins are high but at the same time you get more of a boost from that and from factory optimization as you go into 2019 and 2020. So, what are you thinking about your incrementals? Could your incrementals actually get better in 2019 and 2020 from these initiatives? Like, how should we balance that with the fact that your margins are already pretty high?

Nick Gangestad

Analyst

Couple of things that will get better beyond 2018. Business transformation will be going into the most significant part. It’s not -- we haven’t too backend loaded it. There have been nice contributions we’ve been making over the last two years and continue but 2019 and 2020, we do expect to be higher than what we’ve averaged the last two or three years from business transformation. The other thing that will be changing from 2017 and 2018 going into 2019 and 2020 is we’ll really be moving into the value realization phase on our footprint optimization, that’s 2017 and 2018 are largely about the investments and we expect in 2019 and 2020 that that will be having a more noticeable positive impact. So, those are a couple that are changing. Am I ready to declare a new incremental margin? No. But those are two things on the margin that are improving and will get better in 2019 and 2020.

Bruce Jermeland

Operator

All right. With that we’ll wrap up Q&A and I’ll turn it over to Inge for some final comments.

Inge Thulin

Analyst

Thank you very much coming this morning and listen to our story. As you have seen, we are coming off 2017 with very strong and good results on all our metrics. We are very confident as we’re rolling into 2018 and beyond that we will continue with this performance. And as you have seen, the things are lining up very well for us. The four fundamentals are in place and are working. Our portfolio is stronger today than ever before in the history of 3M. And all initiative we are taking, everything from the customer focus until the Business Transformation and our supply chain is building us for more efficient 3M as we move ahead. And we have talked in other meetings relative to margin expansion that one of the key element of that is West Europe which will benefit all businesses, and on top of that all the efficiencies we are doing internally is helping us. And we are by definition, a project-based company and process-oriented. And I think the last years we have actually added very, very good competencies relative to customer interactions. So, from our team on this side, we would like to send you the message that we are very confident that we would capitalize on this very, very well as we go into 2018 and beyond. And I think also when you look upon the five-year plan, as we are two years into the process of meeting all metrics that is a good sign of a continuation of our success. So, thank you very much for coming this morning.