Monish Patolawala
Analyst · Barclays. Please proceed with your question.
Sure. And just Julian, to add on to Bill's points on first half, second half, just data points. We spent $165 million in the first half on restructuring, and at the midpoint that would be another $110 million in the second half. So the tax rate will be around 19% in the second half versus 20% in the first half. If you now go to just the guidance between 2Q, 3Q or 3Q, 4Q, 3Q revenue trends will be very similar to what we saw in 2Q. I think Bill already talked about what it looks like in the market, so that's where the team is seeing right now. I would say continued strong operational execution and spending in 3Q also. You will get a tailwind from the timing of stock comp, which we announced in 2Q, approximately 100 of it that comes back as a tailwind in Q3. But at the same time, as Solventum matures in its ability to execute independently, we also believe that they will keep exiting their TSAs. As I've told you, the TSAs, some are short-term, some are as long as two years. That could go up to three years. We will see lower fees as Solventum begins to exit. And that's an impact of approximately $0.09 from a headwind on an EPS perspective, which is overall still in the range 2Q was heavier than 3Q and 4Q. Bill talked about the seasonal impact in our factories as we bleed down inventory in Q3. Restructuring costs based on what the team sees right now is flat Q2 to Q3. So the balance will go into Q4 as we talked about. And then you will see -- we talked about $0.11 EPS impact for the second half on Combat Arms and PWS. As you know, we have made payments. By the end of July we would have made $3.7 billion of payments under our agreements under the settlements under Combat Arms and PWS, which means you have a lower cash balance in Q3, and that impacts us $0.06 of EPS. So between pension and interest costs, that's a headwind Q2 to Q3. The team continues to believe that they can step up to drive long-term growth, to step up investments. And then tax rate for the third quarter will be in the range of 20% to 21%. And the fourth quarter is, the whole year is, I mean, the second half is 19%. So you can back into the fourth quarter, which would be lower. Hopefully, this is helpful to get your models right.