Earnings Labs

Monster Beverage Corporation (MNST)

Q4 2017 Earnings Call· Wed, Feb 28, 2018

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Monster Beverage Corporation fourth quarter and full-year 2017 financial results conference call. At this time, all participants are in listen-only mode. Later we will conduct a question-and-answer session, and instructions will follow at that time. As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded. I would now like to introduce your host for today's conference, Mr. Rodney Sacks, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer. Please begin.

Rodney Cyril Sacks - Monster Beverage Corp.

Management

Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen. Thank you for attending this call. I'm Rodney Sacks. Hilton Schlosberg, our Vice Chairman and President, is with me today; as is Tom Kelly, our Senior Vice President of Finance. Before we begin, I'd like to remind listeners that certain statements made during this call may constitute forward-looking statements within the meaning of Section 27-A of the Securities Act of 1953 as amended, and Section 21-E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1954 as amended, and which are based on currently available information regarding the expectations of management with respect to revenues, profitability, future business, future events, financial performance and trends. Management cautions that these statements are based on our current knowledge and expectations and are subject to certain risks and uncertainties, many of which are outside the control of the company that may cause actual results to differ materially from the forward-looking statements made during this call. Please refer to our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, including our most recent Annual Report on Form 10-K filed on March 1, 2017, and our Form 10-Q dated November 8, 2017, including the sections contained therein entitled, "Risk Factors and Forward-Looking Statements," for a discussion on specific risks and uncertainties that may affect our performance. The company assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking statements with as results of new information, future events or otherwise. An explanation of the non-GAAP measure of gross sales and certain expenditures, which may be mentioned during the course of this call, is provided in the notes and designated with asterisks in the consolidated statements of income and other information, attached to the earnings release dated February 28, 2018. A copy of this information is also available on our website at www.monsterbevcorp.com in the Financial Information section. Global beverage industry…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. The first question comes from the line of Bill Chappell of SunTrust. Your line is now open.

William B. Chappell - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc.

Analyst · SunTrust. Your line is now open

Yes. Thanks. Good afternoon.

Rodney Cyril Sacks - Monster Beverage Corp.

Management

Good afternoon. Hi, Bill.

Hilton Hiller Schlosberg - Monster Beverage Corp.

Analyst · SunTrust. Your line is now open

Hi, Bill. How are you?

William B. Chappell - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc.

Analyst · SunTrust. Your line is now open

Hi. Just on the gross margin side, is the three factors that impacted the fourth quarter, China reserves, raw materials having higher material costs, and then the mix, would you expect kind of all of those to have a similar impact as we move into 2018 or any of them being mitigated? How should I look at especially on the higher material costs and how should I look at that in 2018?

Rodney Cyril Sacks - Monster Beverage Corp.

Management

Well, the higher material costs we expect to continue, particularly for aluminum. I think, you've seen in the announcements that are in play regarding aluminum and aluminum costs, so we expect an increase in aluminum. Sweetener, we'll continue to experience costs in sweeteners this year, so the only factor that will possibly diminish is inventory reserves in China. Those we don't expect to continue.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. The next question is from Mark Astrachan of Stifel. Your line is open. Mark Stiefel Astrachan - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.: Yes. Hey. Good afternoon, guys.

Rodney Cyril Sacks - Monster Beverage Corp.

Management

Hi, Mark. Mark Stiefel Astrachan - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.: So I guess I wanted to ask about these inventory reserves. So what exactly is going on in China, I guess most specifically, but also why you're doing that in India? And then just sort of more broadly, I guess I get the moving parts on what you talked about from inventory reductions by bottlers outside of the U.S. but I guess if you look at it within the U.S. as well, the numbers were still on a reported basis lower than what the end demand or scanner data would have indicated. So I guess I'm curious how you're thinking about that. Is that catch-up? Did you over ship in prior quarters and sort of how did you think about that from an inventory standpoint now going forward?

Rodney Cyril Sacks - Monster Beverage Corp.

Management

I think, the issue in China was the demand was misjudged in summer and we ended up with excess inventory which we've needed to work through and we've made provisions for that. In India, we've also been running some test runs and trials, and we've been having some challenges in some of the testing of ingredient levels. They use a different testing set of tests for what we do and we use around the world, and we've been having a number of debates about what the testing levels are because we were comfortable with the ingredient levels that we put in, but yet they were coming out on testing levels because of the way they extrapolate the results a little differently. But yet, that is the method that is used in India, and that has caused us some hiccups and delays in getting going because we're just struggling with the testing levels. And that's resulted in, again, some inventory and stock write-offs. With regard to the scanner data in the U.S., I think there's been an increase in the scanner data more recently. I think the numbers are coming up. And I think that's just indicative of where the market has been, but it has improved from the latter part of last year.

Hilton Hiller Schlosberg - Monster Beverage Corp.

Analyst · Stifel

We've never said that there's a perfect science between our sales to our distributors and the sales at retail. But over a period of time, one does see the correlation. And then one other thing I wanted to add on India is there are some new can regulations, labeling regulations that are being put in place, which was another reason for certain reserves in India.

Rodney Cyril Sacks - Monster Beverage Corp.

Management

Right. I agree.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. The next question is from Andrea Teixeira of JPMorgan. Your line is open. Andrea F. Teixeira - JPMorgan Chase & Co.: Hi. Good afternoon there. I just want to clarify. You obviously said that the impact of the extra inventory could be about less than 50%, so I'm trying to do the math. Would you say it's like in the mid-teens growth and then you had an extra selling day in January 2018? So what should we be thinking on a normalized basis like you will run through or run rate on the top line product to date? And then the other question is regarding your gross margin. I understand all the puts and takes. But in your view, you're still going to see pressure from these items into 20 – bigger pressure into 2018 on the gross margin, but it's mostly on a mix effect and on aluminum. But if you can help us guide us through the impacts, that would be great.

Hilton Hiller Schlosberg - Monster Beverage Corp.

Analyst · JPMorgan

So on the gross margin, we don't give guidance, and it's something that the company has never done. We give the information as we have it, as we see it through the quarter. But if you wanted a kind of gross margin, a conservative gross margin looking forward, I personally, and this is a personal feeling, I would just use the gross margin for the quarter. Andrea F. Teixeira - JPMorgan Chase & Co.: That's helpful, thank you. And on the top line, I'm just trying to see it from the extra day, and obviously you said less than 50% impact. So I'm trying to reconcile the 25% or 27% FX-neutral on a quarter-to-date. Is that something we should be thinking on the mid-teens normalized days, or a bit less because of the extra day?

Rodney Cyril Sacks - Monster Beverage Corp.

Management

We actually described it as less than half. And the reason we did that was that what we don't know is – while there was, we believe, additional purchases by these distribution, by the distributors, we're not sure all of those additional purchases took place in January because we haven't done the analysis of specific SKUs and the purchases. And so we believe that it was less than 50%, but that is our best estimate on those numbers at this time.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. The next question is from Laurent Grandet of Credit Suisse. Your line is open. Laurent Grandet - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC: Yes, good evening, Rodney and Hilton. On the international business, how should we think about the right level of growth in the international segment? So 5% organic growth in the quarter seems extremely low. Would a yearly growth level at 25% be right, and the 30%-plus we saw in the first three quarters to be inflated by gradual increase of inventory? So I'm trying to figure out what is the right level of inventory in international to figure out the right growth level in that segment. Thank you.

Rodney Cyril Sacks - Monster Beverage Corp.

Management

Again, we described on this call what had happened with regard to inventory reductions. We also spoke about some issues with regard to China. We don't give guidance, but I think there's sufficient information for you to look at historical information and honestly make up your own estimates because we don't give guidance. It's really difficult to sit here and answer these questions where you guys are looking for guidance. We don't give guidance.

Hilton Hiller Schlosberg - Monster Beverage Corp.

Analyst · Credit Suisse

And I think we did mention that. And that's why we actually have given a lot of the Nielsen information and sales out because that is less affected by purchases of inventory and timing and production timings. And so if you look at EMEA, which is probably our largest international market, we've given you, it's close to, Nielsen's are up in EMEA close to mid-20s. And we've given you Nielsen's for the other areas as well. So those were the numbers that are showing where we expect the numbers to continue. And so when we look at the demand in ongoing sales levels for internationally, they're pretty much in line with the Nielsen numbers and the numbers that have been reported by us in previous quarters. It's clearly a choppy quarter. But that's why we think that the sales out numbers, depletions from our distributors and the best number of all is, obviously, the sales into the markets, which are measured generally reasonably reliably measured by Nielsen are the numbers that you guys should be looking to going forward.

Rodney Cyril Sacks - Monster Beverage Corp.

Management

And that's why we give these numbers.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. The next question is from Caroline Levy of Macquarie. Your line is open. Caroline Levy - Macquarie Capital (USA), Inc.: Thanks, hi there. This is on distribution and selling expenses up as a percent of sales. Could you just explain to us in an environment where there's a shortage of truckers and distribution costs are going up, how it works for you guys? Are you all third party? Are your contracts longer term? And then on the selling side, how much of that big percentage increase versus sales was relating to the China India markets?

Rodney Cyril Sacks - Monster Beverage Corp.

Management

So on distribution costs, we relocated our warehousing to our new warehouse in California during the quarter, and that impacted distribution costs. Regarding trucking, we have our own fleet that we operate mainly for local markets, but we depend extensively on third-party trucking. And then, Caroline, your other question was how much of the distribution costs were related to China and India, and I don't have that to hand, I'm sorry. In India, obviously it wasn't much because we're still in production trials.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. The next question is from Kevin Grundy of Jefferies. Your line is open.

Kevin Grundy - Jefferies LLC

Analyst · Jefferies. Your line is open

Thanks. Good evening, guys.

Rodney Cyril Sacks - Monster Beverage Corp.

Management

Good evening.

Kevin Grundy - Jefferies LLC

Analyst · Jefferies. Your line is open

Two quick points of clarification just because the quarter was a little bit noisy with the distributor issues. So one, just to be very clear. It seems like it was just sort of a one-month issue that not only do you not expect it to persist, but it already seems like its begun to reverse out in the month of January. So if you could just clarify on that?

Rodney Cyril Sacks - Monster Beverage Corp.

Management

Right.

Kevin Grundy - Jefferies LLC

Analyst · Jefferies. Your line is open

And then point number – okay. Perfect. And then question number two, it doesn't seem like there's anything quantitatively that changes your view on the outlook for your international business. The POS data, the Nielsen data sounds very, very strong. So if you could just confirm that and include it in that response, could you also include China and whether you have a change in view there and what the company's outlook, and what it's capable of achieving in that market? Thank you.

Rodney Cyril Sacks - Monster Beverage Corp.

Management

I think that generally international is in line with Nielsen and what we've already indicated. We are comfortable with that and we think that basically our sales momentum remains intact for the brand. In the China market, that has been a challenging market, and it's been costly and we've incurred – obviously incurred losses. We knew we would do so, and your question is hard, and not dissimilar to any other companies who have entered the Chinese market. We are continuing to persist with it. We've obviously – we have the resources, we've put resources behind the brand. We've put marketing and promotion behind the brand. And those are continuing to obviously impact our bottom line. But we see those as long-term opportunities, and we've got to look to establishing the brand in the long-term in China. That's our objective and we are confident we'll get there, but we just got to have – it's going to take time to do so. And again, India we are – we don't believe India in the shorter term is as big a market or potential as China, but it also has just been again some ups and downs in getting going. We are confident that we will get going, but it has – we've set up with staff, we've set up with operations there, and that clearly has affected our bottom line. Those amounts will start eventually to improve as we continue to increase our sales and are able to manage our expenses in those countries more efficiently going forward.

Hilton Hiller Schlosberg - Monster Beverage Corp.

Analyst · Jefferies. Your line is open

Yes. I'd just like to add that the group that has worked with this company for a number of years will remember that it took a number of years for us to become profitable in Europe and in EMEA generally, and there are a lot of lessons that are being learned in China every day. We've got some of our own executive staff over there, on secondment, and our bottling partners are just very much on board and we haven't heard anything negative about the long-term potential for the brand from our partners.

Operator

Operator

Thank you and this concludes the Q&A session. I will now turn the call back over to Mr. Sacks for closing remarks.

Rodney Cyril Sacks - Monster Beverage Corp.

Management

Thank you. On behalf of Monster, I'd like to thank everyone for their continued interest in the company. We continue to believe in the company and our growth strategy and remain committed to continuing to develop and differentiate our brand and to expand the company both at home and abroad. And in particular, to expand distribution of our products through the Coca-Cola bottling system internationally. We're also particularly excited about the new opportunities we have going forward with a portfolio of energy drink products throughout the world, comprised of our Monster Energy brand together with the strategic brands and Mutant. Thank you very much for your attendance.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference. You may now disconnect. Good day, everyone.