Earnings Labs

Montauk Renewables, Inc. (MNTK)

Q4 2024 Earnings Call· Thu, Mar 13, 2025

$1.47

+1.32%

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good afternoon everyone, and thank you for participating in today's conference call. I would like to turn the call over to Mr. John Ciroli as he provides some important cautions regarding forward-looking statements and non-GAAP financial measures contained in the earnings material or made on this call. John, please go ahead.

John Ciroli

Management

Thank you and good day everyone. Welcome to Montauk Renewables Earnings Conference Call to review the Full Year 2024 Financial and Operating results and development. I'm John Ciroli, Chief Legal Officer and Secretary at Montauk. We are changing the cadence of our SEC filings and earnings calls beginning with our full year 2024 earnings to better align our primary NASDAQ and secondary JSC markets. Joining me today are Sean McClain, Montauk's President and Chief Executive Officer, to discuss market and business developments, and Kevin Van Asdalan, Chief Financial Officer, to discuss our full year 2024 financial and operating results. At this time, I would like to direct your attention to our forward-looking disclosure statement. During this call, certain comments we make constitute forward-looking statements and as such involve a number of assumptions, risks, and uncertainties that could cause the company's actual results or performance to differ materially from those expressed in or implied by such forward-looking statements. These risk factors and uncertainties are further detailed in Montauk Renewables SEC filings. Our remarks today might also include non-GAAP financial measures. We present EBITDA and adjusted EBITDA metrics, because we believe the measures assist investors in analyzing our performance across reporting periods on a consistent basis by excluding items that we do not believe are indicative of our core operating performance. These non-GAAP financial measures are not prepared in accordance with generally accepted accounting principles. Additional details regarding these non-GAAP financial measures, including reconciliation to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures can be found in our slide presentation in our full year 2024 earnings press release issued and filed March 13, 2025, which is also available on our website at https://ir.montaukrenewables.com. After our remarks, we will open the call to questions. We ask that you please keep one question to accommodate as many questions as possible. With that, I will turn the call over to Sean.

Sean McClain

President

Thank you, John. Good day everyone and thank you for joining our call. On March 7, 2025, the EPA announced its delay of the 2024 RIN compliance deadline for all categories. The EPA has yet to decide on a proposed partial waiver of the 2024 cellulosic biofuel volume requirements or the timing of its decision on this matter since its origination in their December 5, 2024 EPA announcement. Montauk has sold 100% of its 2024 D3 RINs and it has zero exposure to the timing and resolution of this issue. We entered 2024 with approximately 6.8 million 2024 vintage RINs unsold. During the fourth quarter of 2024, the D3 RIN market exhibited measurable price volatility with indices ranging from a high of $3.50 to a low of $2.08 and significantly muted purchasing activity by obligated parties. So, these market conditions contributed to our decision to hold a higher balance of D3 RINs at the end of the year. All 2024 vintage D3 RINs have been subsequently sold as obligated parties re-entered the market during the first quarter of 2025. The volatility continues to impact the renewable natural gas industry in a variety of ways. Montauk’s strategy remains steady to seek out and invest in projects with quality host businesses that exhibit feedstock growth potential, to diversify our sources of feedstock, our product offerings, and our monetization structures, and to ensure the long-term economic viability of our projects in a wide range of production and pricing scenarios. In 2018, Montauk took its first significant stride towards feedstock diversification through our Pico acquisition. We continue to leverage that diversification through our Pico digestion capacity increase and feedstock amendment with a high quality, high volume dairy agriculture host. Our feedstock diversification strategy is poised to further expand in 2026 with the commissioning of…

Kevin Van Asdalan

Chief Financial Officer

Thank you, Sean. I will be discussing our full year 2024 financial and operating results. Please refer to our earnings press release in the supplemental slides that have been posted to our website for additional information. Our profitability is highly dependent on the market price of environmental attributes, including the market price of RINs. As we self-market a significant portion of our RINs, a decision not to commit to transfer available RINs during a period will impact our revenue and operating profit. At December 31, 2024, we had 6.8 million RINs available but unsold. We have since entered into commitments to transfer all of these RINs. Additionally, we have entered into commitments to transfer all RINs from 2024 RNG production, which generated RINs in 2025. In total, in 2025, we have transferred approximately 9.9 million RINs from the 2024 compliance year at an average realized price of approximately $2.45. We have no additional 2024 compliance year RINs remaining to be transferred. We have not entered into commitments to transfer a significant portion of RINs from 2025 RNG production. Total revenues in 2024 were 175.7 million, flat compared to 174.9 million in 2023. There was a decrease in the number of RINs we self-marketed during 2024 due to a decision to not commit [indiscernible] RINs in the fourth quarter of 2024. The 2024 average realized price of $3 -- average realized RIN price of $3.28 increased approximately 21% compared to $2.71 in 2023. The natural gas price decreased approximately 17.2% during 2024, moving from $2.74 in 2023 to $2.27 in 2024. Total general and administrative expenses were 36.3 million for 2024, an increase of $1.9 million or 5.5% compared to 34.4 million in 2023. Employee-related costs, including stock-based compensation were 23.1 million in 2024, an increase of 3.4 million or 17.1%…

Sean McClain

President

Thank you, Kevin. In closing, while we don't provide guidance to our internal expectations on the market price of environmental attributes, including the market price of D3 RINs, we would like to provide our 2025 outlook. It is important to note that our guidance ranges include internal assumptions that may or may not align with current market trends. Also, our outlook is based on selling RINs up to the quarter after RINs are generated. We expect our RNG production volumes to range between 5.8 million and 6 million MMBtus and corresponding RNG revenues to range between 150 million and 170 million. We expect renewable electricity production volumes to range between 178,000 and 186,000 megawatt hours. Corresponding renewable electricity revenues are expected to range between 17 million and 18 million. And with that, we will pause for any questions.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] And our first question will come from the line of Saumya Jain with UBS. Your line is open.

Saumya Jain

Analyst · UBS. Your line is open

Hey, good morning. So with your RNG facilities, how are you guys looking at things from the data center side of things, any opportunities you're seeing on [indiscernible] provide some color on that.

Sean McClain

President

I'm sorry, would it be possible for you to repeat that question? it was a little difficult to hear.

Saumya Jain

Analyst · UBS. Your line is open

Yeah, so with your RNG facilities, how are you guys looking at things from the data center side? Are you seeing any opportunities on that front that you could highlight?

Sean McClain

President

RNG sales from external businesses such as like data centers, cold storage facilities, these opportunities are in constant development with conversations that we have with entities such as data centers, cold storage facilities, high volume users that are interested in co-locating, we've had conversations on a number of our REG facilities specifically just because of how quickly you can provide that electricity. The nuance in looking at those synergies is how you benefit from the renewable electric credits, whether or not that power is still put into the infrastructure of the local utility as opposed to sort of direct supplying those entities that would sort of co-locate geographically to your locations, but it's definitively an area, call it quasi-voluntary compliance. It is an interesting alternative to how we diversify the product sales that we have, especially in light of any pending or recent volatility that you see in the federal and state attribute markets.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. One moment for our next question. And that will come from the line of Matthew Blair with TPH. Your line is open.

Matthew Blair

Analyst · TPH. Your line is open

Great, thanks for taking my question and good morning Sean and Kevin. I had a few questions on the 2025 RNG revenue guidance of 150 million to 170 million, so I know you don't provide the underlying RIN assumption, but can you tell us, does that revenue guidance assume that all of your RINs will be monetized in 2025? And then also, would you expect to still receive a premium to benchmark RIN prices in 2025, the past couple of years, you have been able to monetize your RINs at higher than benchmark prices and is that a trend that you think will continue?

Kevin Van Asdalan

Chief Financial Officer

Thanks Matthew. In regards to expectations on achieving premiums over the existing D3 index price, I believe we'll continue -- we expect to continue our historical trends of success with selling RINs at advantageous -- during advantageous RIN pricing opportunities. In regards to our forward guidance for 2025 and our expectation associated with when we will transfer and recognize revenues on those RINs. Associated -- generally as we commented, our expectations are that we will commit to transfer available RINs up to the next quarter available to be transferred. Associated with the last handful of quarters, we have provided information and we'll continue to provide information about the timing of those RINs that we keep in inventory that may or may not correspond to that quarter. Additionally, as we continue to move through 2025, here being the first quarter, though we are understanding and working through the [indiscernible] regulatory reform, we do anticipate that that regulatory reform may have an impact on the timing of those RIN sales as well.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. One moment for our next question. And that will come from the line of Tim Moore with Clear Street. Your line is open.

Tim Moore

Analyst · Clear Street. Your line is open

Thanks, I have a 2-part question that are somewhat related. You had some commentary in November about the landfill operators delay impact, there's some capacity slowness there. Can you maybe comment on that? And then I just want to check that I understood maybe your earlier comment and prepared remarks, I think you said $2.45 might have been the average RIN price transfer this year. I'm just wondering if that's indicative of the D3 RIN pricing, because the EPA website stopped posting that after inauguration day, I'm just kind of curious what you've seen on pricing in the last few weeks.

Sean McClain

President

Yeah, Tim, I can take both of those. With respect to landfills delays in projects, we've talked in the past, landfills historically have been a little more synergistic in their willingness to allow for you to sort of infiltrate their open face areas where they're placing waste that allows for you to accelerate the volume increases that you would expect from well field initiatives, horizontal vertical drillings, anything that would improve the volumetric size of your well field collection system. We do continue to see hesitation on the landfill side due to the challenges that they are communicating that they present with their staff. So, the intricacies of trying to place waste as their primary business, competing against the delicacy that they need to navigate around collection systems and the time that they then lose to have to remediate those damages as they're incurred has been something that has been more communicated from them over the last few quarters, it's not fatal in the sense that the collection infrastructures are committed to be increased not only from an environmental NSPS compliance standpoint, but also from the standpoint that they want the additional gas, they want to see the additional royalties. The timing of it is still at times slowed, because they're trying to create a little bit of a better divide between when they are high activity in the open face waste placement and when the collection systems come in and start to pull off of that more recently placed waste. With respect to pricing, other than the standard disclaimers that we don't opine on what we expect pricing to be, it's difficult to say if that price is indicative of what we'll see in 2025. As we sort of mentioned at the beginning of this call, the EPA has…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. One moment for our next question. And that will come from the line of Ryan Pfingst with B. Riley. Your line is open.

Ryan Pfingst

Analyst · B. Riley. Your line is open

Hey guys, thanks for taking my question. Can you talk a bit about what you're seeing in the voluntary market in terms of demand and pricing there.

Kevin Van Asdalan

Chief Financial Officer

Ryan, that is one of the more challenging markets that we're trying to get. I don't know if I want to say reliable or meaningful data from. We're working with our internal capacities. We're working through our external partners. The reliability of getting meaningful voluntary information from volumes that are coming out of the RFS to generate RINs into the voluntary market remains a challenge. That said, we ourselves have entered into what we refer to internally as fixed price or margin share arrangements that generally thus far have not been placed into the voluntary market. They've been placed into the RFS transportation space and that's what we've seen through 2024. We have the flexibility either through off-takes at our sites that are coming up for expiration during 2025, or we believe through those existing margin share arrangements that we have in place from 2024 to further divert away from, if necessary, the transportation space and into the voluntary space as the market so dictates. Related to that is then your evaluation of what is that price associated to a RIN if you could get those volumes into the transportation space versus the fixed price and/or fixed price plus upper spread that you can share in as well as term, all of those items are challenged right now under the ongoing EPA deferral of the rulemaking in the 2024 obligation that was announced in December. The uncertainty, though yet currently unstated impacts to any change in the already existing 2025 RBO; however, also the EPA missing the initial rulemaking periods for the 2026 RBO. Ultimately, as Sean said on his last question, that is a long about way of answering your question of we're seeing activity in the voluntary market, achieving readily reliable data similar to how we can get reliable historical data in the transportation space from a RIN generation continues to make this evaluation of when and for how long and at what price points to offer off-take volumes is something that we continue to evaluate as we move through 2025 noting all those sort of caveats and items that we're weighing as we progress through 2025.

Sean McClain

President

Ryan, the only other thing that I would add to that is our diversification plays feedstock off-take arrangements. They're also done with a high degree of fiscal responsibility. The diversification that we focus on isn't voluntary versus obligated party. It's diversification of commodities versus attributes. When you're selling attribute-based products, the voluntary market does move up and down based on their projections of what they compete against, which is the attribute market. And when you elect to proceed with the voluntary market, we view it as a nice backstop, so that there is some sensibility in pricing because it's an alternative, but that alternative comes with a different risk profile associated with the credit worthiness. Having an attribute going into the market that can appeal and apply to all refiners of petroleum is a much different credit consequence than us going to say the previous question where we're selling direct to a solitary cold storage facility for voluntary compliance or a data center, there's a lot more that needs to be understood about the survivability and the longevity of that business, how it is structured, and not to say that it can't be done. It is something that when you're being ultra-selective on projects, the natural consequence is you are conservative over some of the more financial aspects of what your off-take looks like and the creditworthiness of those off-takers.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. [Operator Instructions] One moment for our next question. And that will come from the line of [Betty Zhang] [ph] with Scotia Bank. Your line is open.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Hi, good morning. Thanks for taking my question. I wanted to ask about the 45Z. Would there be any impact to Montauk from this production tax credit?

Kevin Van Asdalan

Chief Financial Officer

[Betty] [ph], thank you. We already receive production tax credits from our electric generation portfolio, notably our Bowerman facility. In regards to the 45Z production tax credit, the new expanded enhanced one to say that there's going to be benefit, to say that we're not investigating or reviewing that benefit, we currently are, in concert with our continued, review and evaluation of the previously finalized ITC credit as well, but we continue to evaluate and look through applicability and availability under those various tax credits enhanced or expanded under the IRA Act.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. I'm showing no further questions in the queue at this time. I would now like to turn the call back over to Sean McClain for any closing remarks.

Sean McClain

President

Well thank you and thank you all for taking the time to join us on the conference call today. We look forward to speaking with you throughout 2025.

Operator

Operator

This concludes today's program. Thank you all for participating. You may now disconnect.