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Altria Group, Inc. (MO)

Q2 2022 Earnings Call· Thu, Jul 28, 2022

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good day, and welcome to the Altria Group 2022 Second Quarter and First Half Earnings Conference Call. Today's call is scheduled to last about 1 hour, including remarks by Altria's management and a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] I would now like to turn the call over to Mac Livingston, Vice President of Investor Relations for Altria Client Services. Please go ahead, sir.

Mac Livingston

Analyst

Thanks, Ashley. Good morning, and thank you for joining us. This morning, Billy Gifford, Altria's CEO; and Sal Mancuso, our CFO, will discuss Altria's second quarter and first half business results. Earlier today, we issued a press release providing our results. The release, presentation, quarterly metrics and our latest corporate responsibility reports are all available at altria.com. During our call today, unless otherwise stated, we're comparing results to the same period in 2021. Our remarks contain forward-looking and cautionary statements and projections of future results. Please review the Forward-Looking and Cautionary Statements section at the end of today's earnings release for various factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from projections. Future dividend payments and share repurchases remain subject to the discretion of Altria's Board. Altria reports its financial results in accordance with U.S. generally accepted accounting principles. Today's call will contain various operating results on both a reported and adjusted basis. Adjusted results exclude special items that affect comparisons with reported results. Descriptions of these non-GAAP financial measures and reconciliations are included in today's earnings release and on our website at altria.com. Finally, all references in today's remarks to tobacco consumers or consumers within a specific tobacco category or segment refer to existing adult tobacco consumers 21 years of age or older. With that, I'll turn the call over to Billy.

Billy Gifford

Analyst

Thanks, Mac. Good morning, and thank you for joining us. Altria's tobacco businesses performed well in a challenging macroeconomic environment for the first half of the year. The smokeable products segment delivered solid operating company's income growth behind the resilience of Marlboro, and our moist smokeless tobacco brands continued to drive profitability. We also continue to make progress toward our vision through the investments we laid out in January, which included supporting the expansion of on!. We are encouraged by on!'s retail momentum and significant share growth since achieving unconstrained capacity last summer. We believe this is a pivotal point in the U.S. tobacco industry. The FDA has the opportunity to create a mature, regulated marketplace of smoke-free products that can successfully realize tobacco harm-reduction and improve the lives of millions of smokers. We share the FDA's goal, to transition smokers away from cigarettes, but we continue to believe that harm-reduction, not prohibition is the best path forward. My remarks this morning will focus on 3 topics: our core tobacco businesses, including the macroeconomic backdrop and potential combustible tobacco product regulation; the smoke-free opportunity in the U.S. and our smoke-free product portfolio; and our continued confidence in our vision. I'll then turn it over to Sal, who will provide further detail on our business and financial results. Let's begin with a review of the macroeconomic backdrop and its impact on U.S. tobacco consumers. In the second quarter, rising gas prices and inflation continue to pressure tobacco consumers' disposable income, resulting in volume declines across the tobacco space. However, we believe that tobacco consumers adapted their purchasing patterns across a variety of goods and services to compensate for the increases in prices. Some of the tactics used by consumers to manage their spending included only partially filling the gas tank and…

Sal Mancuso

Analyst

Thanks, Billy. Altria grew adjusted diluted earnings per share by 2.4% in the second quarter and by 3.5% in the first half across the challenging macroeconomic environment that Billy described. The smokeable product segment continue to deliver on its strategy of maximizing profitability in combustibles while appropriately balancing investments in Marlboro with funding the growth of smoke-free products. The segment grew its adjusted operating company's income by 0.6% in the second quarter, and 2.9% first half. Adjusted OCI margins expanded by 0.7 percentage points to 59.1% for the second quarter and by 1.33 percentage points to 59.3% for the first half. This performance was supported by robust net price realization of 11.5% in the second quarter and 10.4% for the first half. I'll remind you that manufacturer price realization does not reflect retail price change for smokers. For example, Marlboro net retail pack price increased 5.6% in the second quarter compared to last year. Smokeable products segment reported domestic cigarette volumes declined by 11.1% in the second quarter and 8.9% in the first half, primarily due to changes in consumer purchasing behavior as a result of increased gas prices and inflation. When adjusted for trade inventory movements and factors, second quarter and first half domestic cigarette volumes declined by an estimated 10% and 9%, respectively. At the industry level, we estimate that adjusted domestic cigarette volumes declined by 8.5% in the second quarter and 7.5% in the first half. As Billy mentioned Marlboro displayed resiliency during a period of continued uncertainty for consumers. In the second quarter, Marlboro's retail share of the cigarette category grew 1/10 sequentially to 42.7% while declining 4/10 versus the year ago period. Additionally, Marlboro grew its share within the premium segment to 58.1%, an increase of 3/10 sequentially and 5/10 versus a year ago. Moving…

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Chris Growe with Stifel.

Chris Growe

Analyst

Billy, I have a question for you, and you made a good point about -- it's clear we're at a very pivotal moment for this category. I was hoping to get just a better perspective from you and how you're investing today to be able to internally develop RRP, reduced risk products. You've got some uncertainty around your positions in JUUL and IQOS, and there's risk. Those are no longer in your portfolio, certainly just a risk at this point. But I guess I just want to get a sense of what you're doing internally. And you talked about having a product already this -- at the end of this year. And then to what degree maybe M&A could play a bigger role in giving you a better position in RRPs going forward?

Billy Gifford

Analyst

Yes. Thanks for the question, Chris. I think when you think about where we're investing, certainly, we invested in our innovation process. We have the internal development going on. And I've spoken previously about changing that innovation process so that it's laser-focused on the consumer. It monitors the marketplace. But I think before we were -- I would characterize it as almost chasing the market versus sitting side-by-side with the consumer. And so there's a lot of consumer interaction, almost to the point of co-developing with the consumer in those categories that we can develop in. To your point, we can't develop, per agreement with JUUL, in the e-vapor category. But it's something -- we continue to monitor the marketplace and understand consumer satisfaction with the various products in the marketplace. We monitor the entire globe as far as alternative products to both influence -- how we think about internal development, but looking for products that could be emerging in the other markets as well.

Chris Growe

Analyst

And so would M&A be an important contributor, do you think, going forward for Altria's position in this category?

Billy Gifford

Analyst

It certainly won't be off the table, Chris. But I think for the investments we're making in our internal development, we feel good about the pipeline of products that we have.

Chris Growe

Analyst

Okay. And just one other question in relation to pricing in the cigarette category. It's been larger than expected, and it's occurred sooner than I expected, at least this year. And I guess in this environment where there's obviously a more burdensome kind of macroeconomic factor that's weighing on your volume, are you seeing a greater shift to some of the lower-priced or more highly promoted Marlboro varieties? And do you see a need to have to increase promotional investments in light of the heavy pricing coming through in this environment?

Billy Gifford

Analyst

Yes. Chris, it’s a good question and it's something we monitor. But I think when you look at the sequential performance of Marlboro, and even the discount category, you saw sequential stability. Marlboro actually grew 1/10 and the discount category stayed flat. So that were experienced first quarter to the second quarter. From a standpoint of the tools that we put in place with advanced analytics, we feel good about the position. Sal raised an important point. When you think about the impact to the consumer and you think about industry-wide, call it a 5% to 6% price increase, that's well below the inflation they're experiencing in other categories. And you saw the results and their remarks of the -- where we went to the consumer and talked about how they think about the tobacco categories and other categories, and you see they continue to prioritize the tobacco category at the top of their list. And I think that's telling. And you it -- we get a lot of questions about the -- I think you have to step back and think longer term on this. If you think about Marlboro's share, we're right where we were prepandemic, certainly during the pandemic as they received additional funds, whether that be from government or unemployment or things of that nature, it reinforced that Marlboro's the aspirational brand. So Marlboro benefited during that period. Certainly, we've given a little bit of that share back and feel satisfied with where Marlboro is. We've really -- the teams in advanced analytics as well as the Marlboro team putting those into the marketplace, the stability of Marlboro is incredible.

Operator

Operator

And we will take our next question from Pamela Kaufman with Morgan Stanley.

Pamela Kaufman

Analyst · Morgan Stanley.

So industry cigarette volumes have weakened considerably during the second quarter. You highlighted the headwinds facing smokers and how they're adjusting their purchasing behavior. I guess how are you thinking about the outlook for cigarette volumes over the remainder of the year? And then related to that, how much more pricing do you think that consumers can tolerate just given so far, we really haven't seen a meaningful acceleration in trade down to the discount segment, it's been consistent over the last couple of quarters. Do you see an accelerated risk of trade down within the category?

Billy Gifford

Analyst · Morgan Stanley.

Yes. Let me see if I can unpack that a little bit, Pamela, if I miss anything, please follow up. I think when you think about the cigarette volume declines that we saw to the first half, you look historically and when you see the environment, the macroeconomic environment changed for our consumer. You see that they make short-term adjustments and then they adopt to it through time. I think, certainly through the first half, and we saw a little bit of a downshift in gas prices as we entered the third quarter, I think we've seen a correlation in gas prices just because our consumer is usually filling up their vehicle and then going in and making those purchases. But again, I think the research that we did is telling that the consumer is adjusting those behaviors to be able to prioritize their tobacco choices in the -- mostly in the C-store or gas stores. I think from a standpoint of pricing, and Pamela, we've shared with you this before. If you look at minutes worked in the U.S. and benchmark that around -- with other countries around the world that have mature tobacco categories. When you look at that, you still see that the U.S. is at the low end of that scale. So certainly, we feel like there's room to price, but that's something that we monitor. You remember that the factors that we think about when pricing is the strength of the brand. Certainly, corporate objectives play a part in that. But then we think about the economic health of the consumer and what those competitive activities do. And I think it's important to mention here again, the tools that we put in place. We put out the price gap, we put out kind of national metrics. But with the advanced analytics, we're able to use those tools and be very specific. So it to be different in Cleveland, Ohio than in Dallas/Texas. Because these tools allow us to adapt the retail promotions we put in the marketplace depending on what the individual consumers are feeling in that local area.

Pamela Kaufman

Analyst · Morgan Stanley.

That's helpful. Definitely, I just wanted to ask about how you're thinking about the implications to your relationship with Philip Morris in the heat-not-burn category, given their planned acquisition of Swedish Match? And how are you preparing for changes in the competitive in the U.S.?

Billy Gifford

Analyst · Morgan Stanley.

Well, Pamela, you know this as well as I do that it's always been a competitive marketplace. We always had major players. Certainly, this brings a new major player to the marketplace, but we feel like we have the tools in place. So we're going to evaluate everything, make sure that we understand or at least game plan how, Pam, I would approach, the marketplace using the products of Swedish Match and adapt accordingly. I don't want to go much further than that for competitive reasons. I think from a standpoint of heat-not-burn, I shared in my remarks that we're continuing discussions with them about IQOS.

Operator

Operator

And we'll take our next question from Azer, Vivien with Cowen.

Vivien Azer

Analyst

I wanted to touch on -- Billy, so your commentary around the improved trial through the expanded Helix manufacturing capacity was interesting. I was curious if you could just expand and touch on repeat and how you're measuring that, given the promotional and the category.

Billy Gifford

Analyst

Yes. Vivien, it's a great question. I think when you think about on! our research teams are really looking repeat purchases versus a trial offers. And we want to have increases in both. If you think about repeat purchases, we're very pleased with where we're at. Certainly, to your point, as we're investing, you have those repeat purchases that take place and you want to see the concreteness of that. And we feel very pleased and enjoy the repeat purchases that we have. But we felt like there was still opportunity to drive awareness and you've seen the increase in awareness we've been able to drive. And it's specific to the adult consumer that the product is product is very satisfying to the adult cigarette consumer, and we feel like there's still opportunity for trial there.

Vivien Azer

Analyst

Understood. And then my other question is just on the industry outlook. I know you guys have shied away from offering industry volume guidance for a while now, and I fully appreciate why. But if we look at the supplemental disclosures, estimated industry volume declines have nearly doubled over the course of the last 12 months, against a very challenging macrobackdrop. And that does account for it in the table that you've disclosed. I'm just curious so, has your thinking around the underlying macrodrivers changed at all?

Billy Gifford

Analyst

It has not, Vivien. When you think about it -- and can take those quarters that we provide and stretch them back, and you thought -- and you saw macroeconomic was a benefit not that many quarters ago. So you certainly see the swing. It's no different than the swings we see through history. You have the -- macroeconomic economic can be a benefit at times. We saw gas prices in 2015 were a huge benefit. And so I think the only thing I would point out is we're seeing a higher correlation with gas prices and purchasing behavior. That would be the only -- because historically, we tried to correlate gas prices to it. And they were moving nickels and dimes at a time. I think you're seeing faster swings in gas prices so there's a correlation the consumer behavior as they adapt to the short-term nature of those changes.

Operator

Operator

And we'll take next question from Bonnie Herzog with Goldman Sachs.

Bonnie Herzog

Analyst · Goldman Sachs.

I just have a question on your guidance. You maintained your full year mid-single digit EPS growth guidance, but that does imply the second half EPS growth will need to accelerate versus the first half to hit the midpoint of your full year guide? So I just want to hear from you, what gives you the confidence this is going to happen, especially during an economic slowdown. I mean are your expectations that this will be driven from greater net price realization, assuming volumes remain pretty pressured or decelerate further? Are there any expected cost savings that you're hoping to realize in the second half that you could share with us? And then just finally, how do we think about stepped up investments that you might be making towards your smoke-free vision. Is that something that's factored into your guidance?

Sal Mancuso

Analyst · Goldman Sachs.

Yes. So Bonnie, first, thank you for the question, I'll take you through how we think about guidance. So throughout the year, we have communicated that we expected the second half to really drive the growth of our EPS on a year-over-year basis. And just to remind you of a couple of factors that we are seeing in the back half of the year. One is, we begin to lap quarters where we had unconstrained manufacturing in the nicotine pouch category. Also, in the fourth quarter we're, for the first time, going to be lapping a quarter without line income, right? That will happen in the fourth quarter. And then in the back half of the year, as inflation accelerated and we adjusted our MSA inflation assumptions, you start to lap that in the back half of the year as well. So there's some comparative factors that are part of the first half versus second half EPS growth. As far as investments, spending isn't linear necessarily throughout the year, especially when you were making investments in infrastructure and things like that. So I definitely wouldn't look at 1 quarter spending when it comes to that and read into it. It is something that ebbs and flows throughout the year.

Bonnie Herzog

Analyst · Goldman Sachs.

All right. And then I did just want to ask about the -- I guess the uncertainty around your smoke-free future, given everything going on from JUUL to Philip Morris entering in the U.S. via Swedish Match, I guess, the dispute you have with Philip Morris as it relates to IQOS. This continues to be one of the key concern from investors. I know you've touched on this, but any more color you can provide or share with us as to your goal to kind of hit the smoke-free future or transform your business in the next, I guess, decade would be helpful. I mean I know with your agreement with JUUL now that the fair value is below the agreement, I think you have the ability to compete in the e-vapor market. So is that an option you're exploring? And then just maybe color -- a little more color on the timing as it relates to your heat-not-burn. You mentioned it's in final design by the end of the year, and then you're going to begin regulatory preparations. But how long before you have a product that you can bring to the market, do you think? Is that 2 years out, 3 years out? Just trying to get a sense of some parameters as to how you're going to achieve your goal?

Billy Gifford

Analyst · Goldman Sachs.

Yes. Thanks for the question, Bonnie. I think it's really important to step back, and I said it in my remarks, but let me add some color to it. The entire harm-reduction opportunity is in front of us in the U.S., and let me explain why I say that. You remember in my remarks, I talked about the authorizations that have taken place in e-vapor thus far. And they represent 1% of the e-vapor category volume. So there's still 99% of authorizations that could go either way. And so that category will be in a bit of transition while we're waiting for the FDA to make those authorizations, and then the outcome of those authorizations. If you think about novel oral, yes, we're making progress and competitors are making progress, but we're still waiting for FDA authorizations in that category. And so while we're making progress, there will be physicians from the FDA regarding that category. And then heat-not-burn, while it's been gaining momentum internationally, it's non-existent in the U.S. And so that's non-existent. So those are the 3 major growth categories. That's why I keep saying, I just wanted to add some color that the entire harm-reduction opportunity's in front of us. You're right to mention that we have development underway in 2 of those categories. We feel good about the pipeline. I know you would love to see those products, and I would love to show them to you, and we will at the appropriate time. But we feel good about that. As I mentioned earlier, the co-development with the consumer in that space. I think with e-vapor, the color I would add there is -- and I mentioned it earlier, we've always monitored the marketplace to understand consumer satisfaction with the various products in the marketplace, both in the U.S. and outside of the U.S. Additionally, with this quarter with us going below, you're right, we have the option to get out of the noncompete. If we so elect to do so. And we really feel like in the process with the stay from the FDA, and that decision's still looming as well as the rights that I mentioned in my remarks, we believe are beneficial to us at this point in the process, but we'll continue to really gauge what our options are there and make decisions accordingly.

Operator

Operator

And we'll take our next question from Priya Ohri-Gupta with Barclays.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

This is Puja [ph] on behalf of Priya. And my question is, so based on your comments indicating that you plan to repay your upcoming maturity with available cash. How are you thinking about any subsequent need to access the market for refinancing? And I also have a follow-up after that.

Sal Mancuso

Analyst

Sure. And thank you for the question. I'm really not going to signal future capital allocation decisions. I'm happy to share how we think about capital allocation, which, of course, considers a number of factors in those decisions including marketplace dynamics. We manage our balance sheet very carefully. We want to have a strong balance sheet. We want to continue to have investment-grade credit rating. So when we think about capital allocation, we take a balanced approach, and we've made the decision in August to use available cash to retire that debt, but future debt maturity towers, we'll analyze the marketplace at the time and make the appropriate decision.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Okay. That makes sense. And as a quick follow-up, where should we sort of expect you to manage your cash balance over the near term as this will likely bring it more in line with your prepandemic type ranges?

Sal Mancuso

Analyst

Yes. Look, we are very fortunate in that we have operating companies that generate a significant amount of growth in cash. In a typical year, after paying our dividend and making the necessary investments, we traditionally have had, let's call it $1 billion in excess cash. And at the time, we make various decisions. There are times where we've gone to the Board and ask for a share buyback program. There are times where we've done some liability management to manage our maturity towers going forward, and strengthen the balance sheet. And there are times where we've made some investments such as the investment we made for the Poda technology recently. So that's how we think about cash going forward. But again, our operating companies do a tremendous job of generating cash flow for the shareholder and other stakeholders.

Operator

Operator

And our next question will come from Gaurav Jain with Barclays.

Gaurav Jain

Analyst

A couple of questions from my side. So look, we have had some discussion around the harm-reduction opportunity in front of us, and how it is very early. But if we really look where harm-reduction is really developing, it is all international because it's very hard to introduce new products in the U.S. market because of the PMTA process. But do you think that really to explore the harm-reduction opportunity, you need to go international, much like Philip Morris is entering U.S.?

Billy Gifford

Analyst

Yes. To your point, and I appreciate you recognizing that the PMTA process and the entire harm-reduction opportunities in front of us in the U.S. It's something that we consider on a regular basis of how to get early consumer feedback outside of research in a live marketplace. And thus far, we've opted to go the route we are, which is with consumer research, but it's something that we consider on a regular basis.

Gaurav Jain

Analyst

Sure. And just also , a follow up on the questions around JUUL and potential end of exclusivity, and you also met -- referenced the synthetic nicotine market. And some of these companies have applied for PMTAs, and can potentially get PMTAs. So how do you think of synthetic nicotine as an ingredient? Like is that a market you would like to explore? And if some of the companies get PMTAs, that's an area you would like to enter?

Billy Gifford

Analyst

Yes. Certainly, we were pleased that with the support that took place, that synthetic nicotine is now under FDA authority. We believe in the process as far as the FDA being able to assess the science and evidence. Again, we watch all products that are in the marketplace, both in the U.S. and internationally, to understand how the consumer is interacting with them, what benefits they receive from them as far as satisfaction, enjoyment, the brand itself. And so it's something that stays on our radar.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] We'll open it for the media. We'll go next to Jennifer Maloney with Wall Street Journal.

Jennifer Maloney

Analyst

I wanted to follow up on your statement, Billy, that M&A is not off the table for reduced risk products. And I wanted to ask specifically about the e-vapor category. Would you be open to the possibility of acquiring an e-cigarette brand, for example, that already has FDA authorization?

Billy Gifford

Analyst

Yes. While I don't speak to M&A in any regards. As I mentioned, look, we've always been monitoring the marketplace in the e-vapor space. We want to make sure we understand consumers' interactions with the various brands in the marketplace, whether they like those brands, whether they like the product -- satisfaction that those products give them. Now that we've written down this quarter below 10%, it affords us the opportunity to really explore those opportunities and make different decisions if we so choose. At this point in the process, we chose not to make any different decisions. We believe that where it's at in the process, as I mentioned earlier, with the FDA today and relooking through the review process of the applications as well as for -- some of our rights that we have as part of the agreement, we think those are beneficial. And we think, as we stated, the right decision currently is to stay under the non-compete.

Jennifer Maloney

Analyst

For your smoke-free future goals, do you expect or plan to focus on 1 particular category, like is modern oral going to be the focus of your efforts there? Or do you hope to play in all of the reduced-risk categories?

Billy Gifford

Analyst

Yes. We highlight that we see 3 categories right now as the growth potential in the U.S. That's the heat-not-burn category, the e-vapor category and the novel oral. Certainly, they will be shaped by regulatory decisions, Federal Legislative decisions on excise taxes and future innovation in those categories from the various manufacturers. So that will shape how large they are, but we see those as the 3 potential growth areas, and we look to participate in those. I would remind you that's why we work with the portfolio approach because we see consumers going from cigarettes to those various categories, and we want to be there for the consumer, depending on what category they choose.

Operator

Operator

And there appears to be no further questions at this time. I would like to turn the call back over to Mac Livingston, for any closing comments.

Mac Livingston

Analyst

Thanks, Ashley, and thanks, everybody, for joining us. Please contact the Investor Relations team if you have any further question. Thanks a lot.

Operator

Operator

Thank you, and this does conclude today's call. Thank you for your participation. You may disconnect at any time.