Earnings Labs

Hello Group Inc. (MOMO)

Q3 2025 Earnings Call· Wed, Dec 10, 2025

$6.13

-0.49%

Key Takeaways · AI generated
AI summary not yet generated for this transcript. Generation in progress for older transcripts; check back soon, or browse the full transcript below.

Same-Day

+1.98%

1 Week

-0.76%

1 Month

+6.41%

vs S&P

+5.51%

Transcript

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by, and welcome to the Third Quarter 2025 Hello Group, Inc. Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] Please note, this conference is being recorded today. I would now like to hand the conference over to your first speaker today, Ms. Ashley Jing. Thank you. Please go ahead, ma'am.

Ashley Jing

Analyst

Thank you, operator. Good morning and good evening, everyone. Thank you for joining us today for Hello Group's Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call. The company's results were released earlier today and are available on the company's IR website. On the call today are Mr. Tang Yan, CEO of the company; Ms. Zhang Sichuan, COO of the company; and Ms. Peng Hui, CFO of the company. We will discuss the company's business operations and highlights as well as the financials and guidance. We will all be available to answer your questions during the Q&A session that follows. Before we begin, I would like to remind you that this call may contain forward-looking statements made under the safe harbor provision of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Such statements are based on management's current expectations and current market and operating conditions and relate to events that involve known or unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors. All of which are difficult to predict and many of which are beyond the company's control, which may cause the company's actual results, performance or achievements to differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements. Further information regarding this and other risks, uncertainties and factors is included in the company's filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The company does not undertake any obligation to update any forward-looking statements as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, except as required under law. I will now pass the call over to our COO, Ms. Zhang Sichuan. Ms. Zhang, please?

Sichuan Zhang

Analyst

Thank you. Hello, everyone. Thank you for joining our call. In Q3, our business faced some external challenges, but our team was able to respond proactively and achieve good results in both user and financial metrics. Next, I will give you an update on execution of our strategic goals. Starting with the financial performance. For Q3 2025, total group revenue was RMB 2.65 billion, down 1% year-over-year. Domestic revenue reached RMB 2.12 billion, down 10% year-over-year, while overseas revenue was RMB 535 million, up 69% year-over-year. Adjusted operating income was RMB 404 million, down 11% from Q3 last year, with a margin of 15.2%. Our key priorities for 2025 include the following: For Momo, our goal is to maintain the productivity of this cash cow business with a healthy social ecosystem. For Tantan, the goal is to improve its core dating experience and build an efficient business model that drives profitable growth. As for the new endeavors, our goal is to deepening our presence in the overseas market, enrich our brand portfolio and build a long-term engine. And now let me walk you through the details. First, on the Momo app, we believe that a healthy social ecosystem is the foundation of sustained and stabilizing our cash cow business. Therefore, our product efforts are focused on optimizing the chat experience and creating better chat scenarios and tools for users. We fully rolled out in-house developed AI greeting features in the first half of the year. Data shows that the repriced rate of male users has increased as a result. It proves the team's exploration on leveraging AI technologies to upgrade social chatting tools is practicable during the past year. In Q3, we updated the AI chat assistant model based on earlier tests by leveraging the platform's core price. The model…

Cathy Peng

Analyst

Hello, everyone. Thank you for joining our conference call today. Now let me take you through the financial review. Total revenue for the third quarter 2025 was RMB 2.65 billion, down 1% year-on-year, but up 1% quarter-on-quarter. Non-GAAP net income attributable to the company was RMB 404.5 million compared to RMB 493.3 million in the same period of 2024 and RMB 461.9 million in the previous quarter, excluding a one-off tax expense item. Looking into the key revenue items for Q3. Total revenue from value-added services for the third quarter of 2025 was RMB 2.61 billion, down 1% year-on-year, but up 1% quarter-on-quarter. On a user geography basis, PRC Mainland value-added services revenue was RMB 2.08 billion, down 11% year-over-year and 3% quarter-over-quarter. The decrease was primarily attributable to three factors: number one, tax scrutiny on certain broadcasters and agencies, which distracted their operational focus; number two, softened consumer sentiment driven by macro factors; and number three, a decline in paying users on Tantan. BaaS overseas revenue came in at RMB 533.1 million, up 69% year-over-year and 21% quarter-over-quarter. The year-over-year and sequential growth was mainly driven by rapid expansion from multiple social entertainment as well as dating brands across our rich portfolio. Turning to costs and expenses. Non-GAAP cost of revenue for the third quarter of 2025 was RMB 1.65 billion compared to RMB 1.62 billion for the same period last year. Non-GAAP gross margin for the quarter was 37.6%, down 1.7 percentage points from the year ago period. The decrease was primarily attributable to two factors: number one, a deliberately higher payout ratio for the Momo business to ease supply side pressure amid tax scrutiny; number two, a structural revenue shift towards overseas markets, which payment -- where payment channel costs represent a higher percentage of revenue. Non-GAAP…

Ashley Jing

Analyst

Just a quick reminder before we take the questions. For those who can speak Chinese, please ask your questions in Chinese first, followed by English translation by yourself. Thank you. Operator, we're ready to take questions.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from Thomas Chong with Jefferies.

Thomas Chong

Analyst

[Foreign Language] During the prepared remarks, management highlights Momo was affected by the tax issue from the supply side and adjust the revenue sharing ratio. Can management comment about the latest progress of the adjustment? And how should we think about the margin impact? On the other hand, can management also provide some more color why our peers didn't mention a similar issue? On the guidance we've just given, there's about a low teens year-on-year decline for Momo. So, just for the full year. So, how should we think about the revenue trend for this cash card business as we come into 2026?

Yan Tang

Analyst

[Interpreted] Okay. Let me translate. At the end of Q2, tax authorities introduced policy adjustments related to the flexible workforce, which officially took effect on October 1. For Momo, these adjustments primarily affect some mid-tier broadcasters and agencies in our audio and video-based scenarios. And shortly after the adjustments were announced, regional tax authorities in certain areas reached out to the local MCMs to clarify implementation details. And this led to a noticeable decline in work enthusiasm among supply side even before the adjustments were formally effective, resulting in revenue pressure for Momo app in the third quarter. Momo has maintained a relatively low revenue sharing ratio to broadcasters and agencies compared to our peers. Thanks to our unique social attributes and agencies and broadcasters were willing to accept this lower ratio while still making considerable income. However, this very characteristic made them particularly vulnerable to these recent tax changes and especially some mid-tier agencies. To protect the reasonable income level of our supply side partners, in August, we adjusted the revenue sharing policy for the group's mostly affected by the tax changes. This initiative led to a modest sequential revenue recovery in September compared to July and August. However, during Q4, with the formal implementation of the tax policy adjustment and tightened regulatory oversight of the agency's tax compliance, we have observed further pressure on certain agencies and broadcasters. And to partially offset these impacts, we have further increased the revenue sharing support for the supply side. And these additional concessions are expected to reduce the group's gross margin by approximately 1 to 2 percentage points in the second half of 2025. On the revenue front, we had originally expected the year-on-year decline in the domestic revenue in the second half to narrow compared to the first half. However, based on the Q3 actual results and our Q4 current outlook, this improvement has not materialized to the extent anticipated. Furthermore, I would like to echo Sic's earlier remarks. As one of the China's earliest mobile social platform, Momo has maintained strong brand vitality to this day, driven by continuous product innovation and back-end algorithm optimization. Core engagement metrics such as tooling messages, in-depth chat rates and user retention have continued to improve steadily. In Q3, the launch of new scenarios, particularly audio and video chats contributed to a steady increase in the number of paying users. This not only reflects continuous improvement -- improving connection efficiency between the platform and our users, but also validates Momo's solid operational foundation and product innovation capabilities within this open social field. And coupled with our profit-oriented strategy and the team's effective cost control, we are fully confident that Momo will continue to deliver meaningful profit and operating cash flow to the group. For specific figures, I will hand over to Cathy.

Cathy Peng

Analyst

Okay. Outlook for 2026 for domestic business, Thomas, you're right that based on our Q4 guidance for the full year 2025, our domestic business, including both Momo and Tantan is on track for a low teens percentage decline versus 2024. At the beginning of 2025, we had expected that exit rate of year-over-year decline to narrow to somewhere around 10% or even slightly below 10%. That didn't happen because the tax scrutiny starting in Q3 had a meaningful negative impact on the supply side and therefore, on revenue as well. That headwind was concentrated in the second half of 2025. In our guidance, we assume that the domestic business is going to exit 2025 with a somewhere around 13% year-over-year decline. So, if you take that exit rate, apply normal seasonality and roll that forward throughout 2026, what you will likely see is this -- in the first half of 2026, domestic revenue will probably still show a similar mid- to low teens year-over-year decline. As we move into the second half of 2026, the year-over-year decline is likely to naturally narrow down. That's simply because the bulk of the negative tax-related impact hit the second half of 2025, creating an easier comp base for next year. So, that's the modeling perspective. But remember that what math gives you is always going to be influenced one way or another by realities. And here are three fundamental factors I can highlight for you to adjust your model accordingly based on how you think realities will unfold in 2026. The first factor is always going to be platform fundamentals. On that front, both Momo and Tantan are in a much better position today. Momo's paying user count, as you can see, after a prolonged period of decline stabilized and grew in Q3,…

Ashley Jing

Analyst

Operator, next question, please.

Operator

Operator

The next question comes from Jenny Wang from UBS.

Jiahui Wang

Analyst

[Foreign Language] My question is regarding our overseas business. So, overseas revenue grew 69% year-over-year in the third quarter, ahead of management's previous guidance of 60% growth. So, could you please walk us through which part of business outperformed expectations? And for the fourth quarter, we are guiding a 70% year-over-year growth in overseas revenue. So could you please break down how much of this is driven by the organic business? And how much is driven by the consolidation impact from the newly acquired Happn? And given this trajectory, how do we expect overseas growth this year? Is there a chance -- is it less likely that overseas performance could fully offset the revenue decline in the domestic market?

Yan Tang

Analyst

[Interpreted] Okay. So in Q3, the vast majority of incremental revenue comes from -- the overseas business comes from audio and video-based products in the MENA region and driven primarily by the two new apps, Amar and Yaahlan. Our core performance metrics for the overseas audio and video-based business is to be the ROI. So around midyear, as we increase the marketing spend, channel ROI began to decline. So in response, we deliberately scaled back marketing investment and plan to resume more spending only after media acquisition costs decrease or ARPU and gross margin improve. Accordingly, we also moderated our near-term revenue expectations for these audio and video products. During Q3, the local team successfully drove ARPU growth through continued product optimization and deeper supply side partnerships, while simultaneously lowering revenue sharing ratios. And these efforts led to a clear improvement in ROI, which in turn has allowed us to step up user acquisition investment again and resulting in accelerating growth momentum. And beyond the audio/video products in MENA, our overseas dating portfolio also delivered solid performance in Q3. Notably, following the brand repositioning led by the Singapore team, Tantan International has begun migrating users to its refreshed international version. The migration is progressing in line with our expectation and both revenue and profit has stabilized and returned to growth for the first time in nearly a year. And product features and UI designs tailored specifically for overseas Chinese users have laid a strong foundation for Tantan International to deepen its presence in Southeast Asia and other global markets. And furthermore, the AI-powered role playing dating app we launched in Japan a year ago has made significant revenue progress. And we accept this contribution to overseas revenue to grow steadily as we continue upgrading the AI model and the product matures. On the M&A front, we completed the acquisition of the branch dating brand, Happn, in September. And while its contribution to Q3 revenue was limited, it is expected to make a more meaningful impact on our Q4 overseas performance. As for growth outlook for next year, I will hand it over to Cathy for more details.

Cathy Peng

Analyst

Sure. Let me take the more quantitative part of that question. As Tang Yan mentioned, our overseas portfolio today is fundamentally very different from what it was a year ago. Before getting into numbers, let me add a couple of quick points that investors may have overlooked. First thing I would like to call out is that our international growth strategy has become increasingly multi-pillar supported, both in terms of product mix and in terms of business model. From a product perspective, growth is no longer driven by one single engine. If you go back to the year 2024, the overseas business grew about 50% year-over-year and almost all of that came from SoulChill alone. In 2025, we are on track to grow somewhere around 70%. While SoulChill is still contributed meaningfully, another significant growth driver for 2025 has actually been the non-SoulChill brand. That piece grew close to 400% year-over-year in 2025, becoming a major pillar of our overseas business. And from a business model perspective, we are also diversifying. The overseas business is increasingly driven by the dating and membership-based model in developed markets, which include overseas Tantan, MiraiMind, which is our AI-powered dating app in Japan, Happn and some other quality dating brands. As we move deeper into 2026, we expect the overseas portfolio to rest on three -- almost three equally -- three roughly equal weighted pillars. One is SoulChill, the other is emerging social entertainment apps in developing markets. And the third pillar is going to be dating/membership brands in developed markets. Now turning specifically to your question about whether overseas growth can offset domestic declines. I would say that if you look at second half of 2025, at group level, we are seeing somewhere around 2% year-over-year decline. Were it not the tax scrutiny that hit the supply side hard, top line could have turned positive in Q4. At this time, I don't have enough visibility to make that call for 2026 yet. But here are some high-level thoughts about different pieces within our overseas portfolio. Looking ahead, SoulChill will likely continue to grow, though at a -- probably at a slower percentage rate as the base gets larger. That said, I would say that there is a meaningful upside variable, and that is our push into live streaming and into wealthier Gulf markets. Historically, our strength has been in Turkey and North Africa. Success in the Gulf region and in live streaming could meaningfully influence SoulChill's growth trajectory in 2026, potentially helping stabilize or even reaccelerate its growth rate. Non-SoulChill brands should continue to deliver very robust growth next year. Combined with the scaling of the dating/membership model, we expect these segments to become increasingly important contributors as we head towards 2026. And with that, back to Ashley for next question.

Ashley Jing

Analyst

Operator, next question, please.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Leo Chiang from Deutsche Bank.

Leo Chiang

Analyst

[Foreign Language] Let me translate that. My question is regarding to the company's M&A strategy. Could management share the key factors the company focus on when doing M&A such as industry geography, revenue and profit? And for the acquired products, will the company be actively involved in the business management?

Ashley Jing

Analyst

Leo, we didn't quite get your question. Can you repeat, please?

Leo Chiang

Analyst

Is that better now?

Ashley Jing

Analyst

Yes. Yes, we can hear you better now. We actually heard most of the Chinese part, but the English translation was not quite clear.

Leo Chiang

Analyst

So my question is regarding to the company's M&A strategy. Could management share the key factors the company focus on when doing M&A, such as industry geography, revenue and profit? And for the acquired products, will the company be actively involved in the business management?

Yan Tang

Analyst

[Interpreted] Let me translate. Since the launch of our first LVS-based SoulChill product Momo in 2011, our company has transformed from the past 14 years from a single product company focused on DAU growth in China market into a diversified group with more than a dozen brands. These brands cover a wide range of niche markets and user segments, both domestically and internationally. In addition to organic development, acquisitions have been another key growth strategy since 2018. Whether through organic development or M&A, we have consistently stayed focused on our core strengths in the social and dating sector. And in recent years, as growth in the domestic market has slowed, we have shifted our strategic focus overseas to capture new growth drivers. And in less than 5 years, incremental revenue from overseas products has largely offset the decline in our domestic business. We do not have rigid criteria for M&A targets. However, looking at the acquisitions we have completed so far, they share several common characteristics. And firstly, we must fully understand and recognize the value of the product, the team and the business model, and we must be confident that the group's resources can help unlock greater potential. And second, we need strong confidence in that -- the target's ability to achieve a sustainable profitability. And third, of course, the valuation must be reasonable. Regarding post-acquisition management and the degree of our involvement, it varies on a case-by-case basis. If the original team is better positioned to run the business than we are, and we tend to delegate full authority to the local team while providing necessary support functions. And if the local team ever needs us to dive in deeper, we are more than happy to engage in hands-on daily management. So, overall, our level of engagement with acquired companies is tailored to the specific circumstances rather than following a one-size-fits-all rule. So, I hope we answered your question there.

Ashley Jing

Analyst

In the interest of time, operator, let's just take one last question before we close the line.

Operator

Operator

Your final question comes from Xueqing Zhang from CICC.

Xueqing Zhang

Analyst

[Foreign Language] And my question is about the profit margin and shareholder returns. Management have previously mentioned that the fastest-growing overseas audio and video-based social business has a lower gross margin compared to domestic one. Additionally, Momo recently adjusted its revenue sharing ratio. So, how should we view the overall gross margin going forward? More than many of our overseas initiatives are still in the investment phase. So, does it impact, that your profit margin may further decline next year? And would this impact decisions regarding shareholder returns?

Cathy Peng

Analyst

Okay. Let me try to answer the margin and profitability question first. First, it's still a little bit too early to be very prescriptive about 2026 margins. Our portfolio today is more diversified than in prior years with products carrying very different margin profiles. But I can share a few directional points that should help frame expectations. Number one, on the domestic business, you are correct. Given what we saw in the second half of 2025, domestic gross margin will likely be down a couple of points. The exit rate is going to roll into 2026. On the operating expenses front, we do see room to further optimize so we can mitigate part of the pressure at the operating profit level. But with both revenue and gross margin trending lower, bottom line for domestic business will remain under downward pressure in 2026. Number two, for the overseas business, margins look different by product category. On a stand-alone basis, most overseas products are actually seeing stable or improving gross margins as they scale. The key factor is the mix. Social entertainment products carry lower margins due to payout and revenue share arrangements, while the subscription and dating business carry significantly higher gross margins with no payout component. As these categories grow at different speeds, mix will be a bit hard to pin down at this point. Given these moving pieces, the most practical approach now is perhaps to anchor on the Q4 2025 exit level, which based on our guidance should be about 36% to 37% adjusted gross margin. Some forces push it upward, some forces push it downward. We'll have clearer visibility after we complete our annual planning and can give you more specific color during our next earnings call. On the group level profitability outlook, it's true that we…

Ashley Jing

Analyst

Thank you, everyone, for joining us today. So, we'll see you next year and happy holidays. Bye.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. That does conclude our conference for today. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect. [Portions of this transcript that are marked [Interpreted] were spoken by an interpreter present on the live call.]